USA218 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 12, 2020 9:57 amFacts!
USA218....I agree. Facts ARE extremely critical in trying to safely allow us to return to school or, play youth athletics. Unfortunately, it's obvious you haven't done much research from actual experts regarding the very real risks presented by this virus. To address just a few inaccuracies from your first post. You stated that, "this "pandemic" is on par with the regular seasonal flu, and in kids is totally benign for the majority of all cases! The rate of death and hospitalizations in the US among kids is LESS than it is for a bad flu season."
First, an "average" year for flu deaths is approximately 20,000-30,000 per year. And by the way, that's simply an estimate. In fact, there are a couple of articles by physicians that question the methodology the CDC uses to make those estimates and many of these front-line doctors believe actual total flu deaths are below 10,000 per year. Also, those estimated deaths are for an entire flu season. We already have 163,000 deaths in just 6.5 months AND, that's likely under-counted with the accurate death count from Covid being well over 200,000. Why do we have so few flu deaths compared to Covid? Well, it's called a vaccine. Also, about 90% of flu deaths occur to people that don't get the vaccine. Regardless, the fact that you are saying to look at just deaths and hospitalizations as a means to judge risk to kids is another example of your lack of "facts".
Administrators -- and I serve as one in youth sports -- don't, nor can't, just look at that. We are literally learning new information about this virus every day. I stated this in my previous post -- which I strongly suggest you read -- but two Power 5 football conferences that stand to lose 75-100 million dollars PER TEAM, just decided to postpone their seasons after receiving advice from their medical advisory panels made up of some of the top experts in this virus in the world. It has been reported that ten different Big10 athletes who tested positive for Covid are now dealing with myocarditis -- a condition of inflammation of the heart muscle -- which can lead to permanent heart damage or even death. There is also very strong evidence of permanent lung damage in as many as 40% of symptomatic people, along with a small percentage of asymptomatic people. For administrators, this also causes potentially significant liability concerns. Not just for kids in our own programs/organizations who might become ill, but potentially also for secondary spreading events that be traced back to what our organizations choose to do or not do regarding limiting programming to control infection and spread. Meaning, until it's your name on the dotted line to allow kids to play, it's difficult to truly understand the challenges.
Next, the percentage of overall infection rate of the U.S. population is estimated to be between 5-8% by the top experts in epidemiology and infectious diseases. Thus, your "bet" that a significant chunk of younger kids have already been infected is completely inaccurate. And, it actually relates to the next inaccuracy of yours -- your comment about why are we testing asymptomatic people -- is beyond ludicrous considering the level of asymptomatic spread. What's strange is that you contradict yourself because on one hand you are saying/arguing that a large percentage of younger people have already had it and (at least I assume this is your thinking) makes it easier to justify getting kids back on the ice. Yet, you don't think we should test asymptomatic people which would help prove your theory. The more we test both symptomatic AND asymptomatic the more we can know what the accurate number of total infected actually is. I can cite articles explaining that your points aren't accurate but, based on your comments and the vibe I get from them, my guess is you won't read them anyways.
Finally, regarding your assertions about what high school hockey will be like if the MSHSL chooses not to play or, has a reduced season; remember, Minnesota Hockey has very strict parameters under which a "Tier I/II team" can be assembled/sanctioned. There simply won't be any other Tier I/II teams allowed to be formed or even currently existing teams allowed to play from Nov. 15th thru the boys high school tournament, to include the HSEL as that is sanctioned by MH/USA Hockey as well. The only Tier I/II team in Minnesota that plays thru the season is Shattuck. So, the ONLY options for high school aged players during the traditional season will be to either play Junior Gold, play on a Junior team (if they can earn a spot), or move out of state to play with a Tier I/II team. Obviously, some will choose those other opportunities. Will that affect the overall quality of play in high school? Sure. But, IF the scientific community is right about having an effective and safe vaccine by January or February of 2021, next year should be close to back to normal. As you stated at the beginning of your first post, it is about "facts". Unfortunately, where one gets their information from, directly effects whether your facts are actually factual.
Which leads us back to the title of this thread. The MSHSL moved football because they -- guided by the medical experts who advised them -- determined that it wasn't in the best interests of the players and coaches from a health and safety standpoint to allow them to play games and travel on buses together at this time. And, due to the similar contact involved in hockey, along with the recent study proving that the virus is infectious as an aerosol and in indoor situations (like an arena) literally sits in the air for hours thus increasing infection risk, it's likely this will affect hockey similarly. Hey Karl, see how I kept it on topic?
