4AA Outlook

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East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:33 am

Thanks for the report on the BSM game, Blue. I cant even find a game summary. Good D-men can certainly make a goalie look a lot better, but Erickson can certainly stand on his own merits. I like our opponents having multiple tough layers to get through to find some twine.

I like my Pioneers chances against a Crimson squad that's been competing in a bubble, same for Cretin.

And to repeat, there is no difference between being seeded #2 or #3, none at all.
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BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:02 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:33 am
And to repeat, there is no difference between being seeded #2 or #3, none at all.
Last line change?
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East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:34 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:02 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:33 am
And to repeat, there is no difference between being seeded #2 or #3, none at all.
Last line change?
You just proved my point, thanks. ;)
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BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:25 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:34 pm
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:02 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 11:33 am
And to repeat, there is no difference between being seeded #2 or #3, none at all.
Last line change?
You just proved my point, thanks. ;)
:mrgreen:

Of course anything can happen on any given night, whether it be the regular season, sections or State. I've seen Hill teams go in as the #1 team in the state and fail to make it out of sections. I've also seen the opposite, where Hill seemingly plays above what folks think they're capable of. Their last two titles - 2008 and 2020 - they were underdogs but won each game by 3 goals. Add in the pressure of a "lose and the season is over" situation of sections and State, and the pressure increases. Splash a little rivalry into the mix and you know you'll get your opponent's best. This is especially true when Hill plays WBL, and to some extent Stillwater.

That all said and at the risk of putting my foot in my mouth, this year feels a bit different. I've now watched Hill play 5-6 times this year, Stillwater twice and WBL parts of a couple of games. I don't see how anyone in the section is going to score enough goals to beat them. I haven't seen the speed and scoring touch from those two teams to convince me they can break through Hill's vaunted D and Erickson in goal. Add in Hill's depth and the fact that their scoring is coming around after some early season struggles, and I just can't see either Stillwater or WBL taking this section. I'll still be nervous, and I could see a low scoring 1-2 goal game. This Hill team's methodical, suffocating approach seems like it will be too much.

But, stranger things have happened.... 8)
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

Sparlimb
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by Sparlimb » Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:32 am

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:25 am
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:34 pm
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:02 pm


Last line change?
You just proved my point, thanks. ;)
:mrgreen:

Of course anything can happen on any given night, whether it be the regular season, sections or State. I've seen Hill teams go in as the #1 team in the state and fail to make it out of sections. I've also seen the opposite, where Hill seemingly plays above what folks think they're capable of. Their last two titles - 2008 and 2020 - they were underdogs but won each game by 3 goals. Add in the pressure of a "lose and the season is over" situation of sections and State, and the pressure increases. Splash a little rivalry into the mix and you know you'll get your opponent's best. This is especially true when Hill plays WBL, and to some extent Stillwater.

That all said and at the risk of putting my foot in my mouth, this year feels a bit different. I've now watched Hill play 5-6 times this year, Stillwater twice and WBL parts of a couple of games. I don't see how anyone in the section is going to score enough goals to beat them. I haven't seen the speed and scoring touch from those two teams to convince me they can break through Hill's vaunted D and Erickson in goal. Add in Hill's depth and the fact that their scoring is coming around after some early season struggles, and I just can't see either Stillwater or WBL taking this section. I'll still be nervous, and I could see a low scoring 1-2 goal game. This Hill team's methodical, suffocating approach seems like it will be too much.

But, stranger things have happened.... 8)
They were big underdogs in 1991 too. They were the third seed in the section that year with both Park and WBL taking turns at #1 in state. But you are absolutely right. I never overlook WBL. The lower ranked of the two has one way too many times.

Cookster
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by Cookster » Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:08 am

Just curious -- how do you think Hill would matchup against:

1. Maple Grove
2. Eden Prairie (w/healthy blake)
3. Lakeville South.

All 3 games would be interesting. Just love to hear the thoughts.

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:27 am

Cookster wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:08 am
Just curious -- how do you think Hill would matchup against:

1. Maple Grove
2. Eden Prairie (w/healthy blake)
3. Lakeville South.

All 3 games would be interesting. Just love to hear the thoughts.
Those are the 3 matchups I'd be most curious about for a few reasons. (1) Hill won't have played any of them during the regular season so no barometer (2) Maple Grove and LS have played a seemingly weak 'bubble' schedule due to Covid, so it's tough to say with certainty how they match up against other top teams and how they might respond when challenged, and (3) Their style of play is totally different from Hill's - great offense v great defense.

Being transparent, I haven't seen Maple Grove or Lakeville South play this year so I'm basing this on their record/scores/what others are saying/top end scoring talent on their teams. I've seen EP play and have some frame of reference since there's a number of common opponents.

I think Hill stacks up against all 3 really well. I think Hill is a top 5, maybe top 3 team this year. Maple Grove and EP with a healthy Blake scare the heck out of me. I do worry that both those teams can score enough goals to make it hard on Hill to keep up. That said, Hill's scoring has come around and I think other teams pressing in the offensive zone and Hill frustrating teams in the neutral zone can open things up for Hill in transition (see STA and Benilde games). Lakeville South is such an unknown for me that it's hard to say. Are they a paper tiger? Possibly.

I'm not sure Hill will want to get into a shootout with any of them - because we simply don't have the incredibly high-end scoring talent MG and EP have. Not many teams, if any, do. Keep them to 3 goals or under and I really like Hill's chances.
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

inthetwine
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by inthetwine » Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:48 am

Anyone know if there is a livestream for tonights WBL/Woodbury game?

Sparlimb
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by Sparlimb » Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:11 pm

inthetwine wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:48 am
Anyone know if there is a livestream for tonights WBL/Woodbury game?
Not on PrepSpotlight. I do get the HM game tonight which should be good for 4 minutes...

stateofhawkey
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by stateofhawkey » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:45 am

Looks like White Bear Lake is practically a lock for the 2 seed after their 5-0 win over the Ponies last night. Hill-Murray still has to be a lock for the top seed, no question there. Then comes the fun for seeds 4-7. Mounds View beating East Ridge on Tuesday night was big for them, that should give them the 4 seed behind Stillwater. I think the QRF currently hits the nail on the head:

1. Hill-Murray
2. White Bear Lake
3. Stillwater
4. Mounds View
5. East Ridge
6. Woodbury
7. Roseville
8. Irondale/St. Anthony
9. Minnehaha (Why are they in this section exactly?)

wbmd
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by wbmd » Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:20 pm

stateofhawkey wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:45 am
Looks like White Bear Lake is practically a lock for the 2 seed after their 5-0 win over the Ponies last night. Hill-Murray still has to be a lock for the top seed, no question there. Then comes the fun for seeds 4-7. Mounds View beating East Ridge on Tuesday night was big for them, that should give them the 4 seed behind Stillwater. I think the QRF currently hits the nail on the head:

1. Hill-Murray
2. White Bear Lake
3. Stillwater
4. Mounds View
5. East Ridge
6. Woodbury
7. Roseville
8. Irondale/St. Anthony
9. Minnehaha (Why are they in this section exactly?)
Minnehaha Academy is probably in the section since North St. Paul was merged with Minnehaha recently.

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:54 pm

Yeah they co-op with NSP and DeLaSalle if I recall correctly. But maybe that's changed
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East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:01 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:54 pm
Yeah they co-op with NSP and DeLaSalle if I recall correctly. But maybe that's changed
That's one weird co-op. I'd think NSP would be more likely to get with Tartan, or Johnson maybe.
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East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:05 pm

This really feels odd. With the increasing sun light and warmer weather, on the evening I would typically be at the Section 4AA final I would normally be looking forward to all week, I'm chilling at home.

I've been very blessed that covid has not disrupted my work or home life much at all. So I'm not complaining, but sure feels weird.
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karl(east)
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by karl(east) » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:06 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:01 pm
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:54 pm
Yeah they co-op with NSP and DeLaSalle if I recall correctly. But maybe that's changed
That's one weird co-op. I'd think NSP would be more likely to get with Tartan, or Johnson maybe.
Even wackier when you consider that Minnehaha, which presumably supplies the majority of the players (and DeLaSalle, for that matter) are to the west of Cretin, yet this co-op is in 4AA while Cretin is in 6AA. Hopefully this next realignment fixes that...

inthetwine
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by inthetwine » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:47 pm

karl(east) wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:06 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:01 pm
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:54 pm
Yeah they co-op with NSP and DeLaSalle if I recall correctly. But maybe that's changed
That's one weird co-op. I'd think NSP would be more likely to get with Tartan, or Johnson maybe.
Even wackier when you consider that Minnehaha, which presumably supplies the majority of the players (and DeLaSalle, for that matter) are to the west of Cretin, yet this co-op is in 4AA while Cretin is in 6AA. Hopefully this next realignment fixes that...
There is no rhyme or reason to sections, look at 7AA

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:49 pm

karl(east) wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:06 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:01 pm
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 3:54 pm
Yeah they co-op with NSP and DeLaSalle if I recall correctly. But maybe that's changed
That's one weird co-op. I'd think NSP would be more likely to get with Tartan, or Johnson maybe.
Even wackier when you consider that Minnehaha, which presumably supplies the majority of the players (and DeLaSalle, for that matter) are to the west of Cretin, yet this co-op is in 4AA while Cretin is in 6AA. Hopefully this next realignment fixes that...
The only reason I remembered that co-op was because of how odd it seemed. I don’t know why it was set up that way, but sure seemed like there were more convenient options for NSP.

With Gentry opting up next year I just don’t know what they’ll do. Maybe drop the Minnehaha co-op into 6AA, add Gentry to 4AA and move Cretin to 3AA?
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

inthetwine
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by inthetwine » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:51 pm

Hill probably has the #! seed, but if WBL wins out, they will have an argument for #!. played and beat every team in the section(except for MInnehaha)

inthetwine
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by inthetwine » Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:59 pm

inthetwine wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:51 pm
Hill probably has the #! seed, but if WBL wins out, they will have an argument for #!. played and beat every team in the section(except for MInnehaha)
Opps and Hill!

Sparlimb
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by Sparlimb » Sat Mar 06, 2021 12:54 am

inthetwine wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 6:51 pm
Hill probably has the #! seed, but if WBL wins out, they will have an argument for #!. played and beat every team in the section(except for MInnehaha)
Problem is WBL's schedule. Which isn't their fault. But they lost to Stillwater, who looks really mediocre lately and they lost badly to Cretin. Hill lost to a very good Grand Rapids team and lost to STA. Both by 1 goal. I don't see anyway you give White Bear the #1 seed now. Now if Hill loses to STA again and White Bear wins out. Then you can make that argument.

But if White Bear loses to Cretin tomorrow, then it will cement them as #2 seed.

goldy313
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by goldy313 » Sat Mar 06, 2021 1:02 am

Hill Murray still controls their own fate, win and they are #1.

FWIW the MSHSL has put no forth any section recommendations.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:53 am

Nothing wrong with seeding speculation, but it doesn't matter if WBL is #1 & Hill is #2. If Hill were #2, it wouldn't matter if Hill drew Stillwater or East Something or Moundsview in the semi. Anyone they draw would be a serious underdog, and losing would be a horrific upset. If Hill can't get past this Stillwater squad, they don't deserve a trip to the X.

A Hill - WBL section game is a Hill- WBL section game. It matters not which is the higher seed, or if it's the semi or the final. It will be a tight game no matter what. It's White Bear's state tournament, the game they prepare for all season. We all know when they get past Hill, they don't even care if they win at the X. (Insert Shots fired! emoji here)
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tourneytickssince59
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by tourneytickssince59 » Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:55 pm

A section final with only 2 or 4 spectators per player so, no student sections. That would be an interesting atmosphere.
Hopefully it happens and there's streaming.

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:23 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 6:53 am
Nothing wrong with seeding speculation, but it doesn't matter if WBL is #1 & Hill is #2. If Hill were #2, it wouldn't matter if Hill drew Stillwater or East Something or Moundsview in the semi. Anyone they draw would be a serious underdog, and losing would be a horrific upset. If Hill can't get past this Stillwater squad, they don't deserve a trip to the X.

A Hill - WBL section game is a Hill- WBL section game. It matters not which is the higher seed, or if it's the semi or the final. It will be a tight game no matter what. It's White Bear's state tournament, the game they prepare for all season. We all know when they get past Hill, they don't even care if they win at the X. (Insert Shots fired! emoji here)
Well I hate to poke the Bear(s) since we may well be playing them in the section final, but it's hard to argue you're wrong. Cough, cough, 0-19 in the quarterfinals at State, cough cough.
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 4AA Outlook

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:27 am

Safe to lock in:

1 seed - Hill Murray
2 seed - WBL
3 seed - Stillwater

Not only was last night a bit of a revenge game for Hill - avenging their last loss of the season in OT to the Cadets - but Hill also locked up the Tradition Rich Metro East conference title with the win. Congrats to the Pioneers!

Hill has given up 9 goals to STA this year [6 in the OT loss earlier this year and 3 in their rout last night]. In their other 15 games against teams not named the Cadets, they've given up 10 goals total. Including shutouts of Edina (twice), Holy Family, Moorhead, Benilde and a couple of others.
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

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