covid and MH

[jg2112]

A total shutdown seems absurd to me.
Why not dial back to only skating with kids in your own community in pods, similar to when hockey opened back up? No games but limited contact and exposure going back to phase 1. Try this first instead of a complete shutdown.
What does the statistic as quoted by MN Hockey really mean 46 outbreaks? 46 teams with multiple players actually testing positive, or quarantine as a result of close contact? While I have not actual facts other then what I have observed and spoken to others, but very minimal players actually testing positive, more quarantine as a result of close contact with parent who tested positive. OMGHA as an association itself has 41 teams (not including mites), as such if 46 teams with either positive tests or quarantine, a very low percentage. Any data that confirms the outbreak was due to hockey?

I agree with you, dialing it back to skating with the community in pods would work, but it seems not to be part of the plan.

The kids will be fine for 4 weeks. We need to help the health care workers now. That's the priority.

[WestMetro]

Green what are you up to nowadays ? Obviously a long ways removed from your Braemar Zam days?

For work, I help in the construction of wind and solar farms doing various tasks. I have a role that is 50% in the Twin Cities where I work in GIS and then the other 50% is on the road. It is pretty nice, I like getting to travel and seeing the country. I got to watch the state tournament last March in a park along the river in Austin, Texas. I don't get to play hockey as much anymore, but I will be in Arizona from Thanksgiving to Christmas, so I would say that is a pretty decent trade.

Great to hear from you Green4 , and happy that you are doing well !

[WestMetro]

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/minnesota- ... s/5928102/

According to this article:
That means hockey arenas will be ordered closed, with exceptions for pro and college facilities.

If true, this removes any doubt that kids will not be playing (other than outdoors), whether under MN Hockey, MSHSL, or other bridge or AAA programs.

I wonder if the NAHL teams will work with colleges to buy ice time, since their season would also come to a halt. I would have to think that most colleges would be receptive to the idea, being that it is such an important development pipeline for them.

Tom Chorske says Nahl status is still under review at present . IMHO they are more like a junior college team and should be exempt from the order just like college teams

[WestMetro]

Do any of the smart research people out there know the answer to this question?

Approximately 44,000 or 45,000 people die in Minnesota every year from all causes

This would mean approximately 37,000 would die in the first 10 months in the year

Does anyone know how many Minnesotans actually died through October this year compared to through October last year? It would be interesting to see if the approximately 3000 Covid deaths so far have actually translated into it 3000 year to year increase of total deaths

WM, these reports will probably start giving you an answer:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... deaths.htm
https://public.tableau.com/shared/X4DBP ... k&:embed=y

I'm not going to mess with the data visualization tool enough to get firm numbers or venture much speculation on what it means, but it's pretty clear that the number of "excess deaths" so far in 2020 is higher than the predicted number. In spring, MN was running at about a 15% higher death rate than the excess deaths threshold, and after stabilizing over the summer, it looks like we're headed right back in that direction now. There are definitely more people dying, and at times there have been substantially more.

Now, I don't think that means there aren't relatively safe ways to have youth or high school sports. I think it is a tragedy that kids are losing parts of their formative years and we are kidding ourselves if we think it won't have some long-lasting effects on educational outcomes, social adjustment, and so on. But the pandemic and some of its downstream effects on our healthcare system are definitely killing people who would not otherwise be dead.

Being in public office right now means making a lot of decisions between bad choices with very limited information. I respect anyone who's trying to make decisions in good faith, even if I disagree with some of them. The ease with which people all over the political spectrum filter what's happening through their priors is a sight to behold.

Thanks Karl I’ll check it out !. {So we are likely approx 15% +- higher in 2020 than the normalized Jan- Oct death number of 37000?)

[WestMetro]

Iron Ranger and Others- yes I believe I suggested on this forum last spring that nursing home staff ought to be getting triple pay for hazard duty, but only if they maintain a negative test every day / week.

If they can’t get enough people to report to duty with negative, tests , then national guard out to be brought in to supplement

We ought to be using the 15 minute Abbott lab test at nursing homes, not the test where you have to wait for 2 to 7 days

I noticed the governor didn’t discuss any of West Metro targeted nursing home measures to reduce deaths where they are actually happening

[jg2112]

It appears the Governor's Executive Order closes all indoor ice rinks (get ready for business, Hudson and Somerset) and also forbids outdoor rinks from operating:

"Individuals must not engage in outdoor recreational activities where they will come into close proximity with others from different households......"

Individuals may engage in any outdoor activity that is dependent upon or derives its principal benefit from natural surroundings and open space, including but not limited to ..... skating... for the purposes of pleasure, rest, exercise or relaxation, provided the activity can be engaged in accordance with the Outdoor Recreation Guidelines, including maintaining at least six feet of separation between participants from different households....

Outdoor recreational activities allowed by this Executive Order do not include performances, competitions, team events, tournaments, races, rallies, organized sports, organized group classes, spectator events...."

Yikes. The kids are going to need 3 weeks to get up to speed before the season can truly begin. I hope this lockdown works.

[SCBlueLiner]

(get ready for business, Hudson and Somerset)

Nope. MN Hockey is forbidding any team from practicing or playing outside of the state as well. If a team tries to play out of state they will be treated as an unsanctioned team as defined by MN Hockey and USA Hockey. The emails have already been sent out to neighboring states.

Hockey has been shut down in North Dakota and Iowa as well by the governors of those states. Truly dark times.

[jg2112]

(get ready for business, Hudson and Somerset)

Nope. MN Hockey is forbidding any team from practicing or playing outside of the state as well. If a team tries to play out of state they will be treated as an unsanctioned team as defined by MN Hockey and USA Hockey. The emails have already been sent out to neighboring states.

Hockey has been shut down in North Dakota and Iowa as well by the governors of those states. Truly dark times.

Even a group of high school aged skaters who have not yet formed a varsity / JV team for the HS season?

[spamtownusa]

Yes. MN Hockey has sent their communication that specifically calls it out. I assume MSHSL will do the same shortly.

[WestMetro]

Karl, Ive been looking at a couple of the links you sent me a couple pages back in the thread.

Minnesota has consistently run about 44000-45000 deaths from all causes in recent years as i mentioned above

So on a 10 month basis, that would be roughly 37100 through October.

I had wondered whether the 2800 Minnesota Covid deaths so far had translated through to an actual increase of 2800 in the total death figure through October

According to this CDC link, Minnesota had 38,700 deaths from all causes through November 3 of this year, So that is only about 1,600 above the normalized 10 month number of 37100, instead of 2800 above it. .

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Every death is tragic of course, and every excess death is more tragic.

But I find this to be an interesting set of numbers.

Might some of our oldest treasured Minnesota seniors who tragically died from Covid have died by now anyway in 2020 from other causes, if Covid hadnt come along?

On the other hand, might some of our driving age people's lives have been saved because of fewer car crash fatalities during Covid lockdowns, and because of people working from home this year?

Those are just two unproven hypothetical explanations. A person could think of dozens of them

As you mentioned above, we will probably run over the average monthly death figure in November and December, so by the end of the year the excess death trend might have changed.

But the fact that Minnesota is not a full 2,800 over the normalized 10 month death total is of interest

I would welcome any different interpretation of the CDC numbers, or critique of any of my comments

[BSUBeaver]

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/minnesota- ... s/5928102/

According to this article:
That means hockey arenas will be ordered closed, with exceptions for pro and college facilities.

If true, this removes any doubt that kids will not be playing (other than outdoors), whether under MN Hockey, MSHSL, or other bridge or AAA programs.

I wonder if the NAHL teams will work with colleges to buy ice time, since their season would also come to a halt. I would have to think that most colleges would be receptive to the idea, being that it is such an important development pipeline for them.

Tom Chorske says Nahl status is still under review at present . IMHO they are more like a junior college team and should be exempt from the order just like college teams

But they don't have the rigorous testing guidelines that D-I teams have. I don't think it will fly.

Up in Alexandria, the RCC is locking the doors and transferring the workers to other city departments or furloughing them. I don't know what the Blizzard will do if they somehow do get a reprieve from the governor.

[Doc Holliday]

I heard a rumor (we all know how those can be) that kids that go to Breakaway are still able to be on the ice as it is considered school.

I wouldn't know how that would work since indoor facilities are to be closed, but just something that I heard.....

[InThePipes]

I heard a rumor (we all know how those can be) that kids that go to Breakaway are still able to be on the ice as it is considered school.

I wouldn't know how that would work since indoor facilities are to be closed, but just something that I heard.....

They could put ice in a Target or Home Depot and allow the kids to skate there, data says it doesn't spread in retail space

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

I heard a rumor (we all know how those can be) that kids that go to Breakaway are still able to be on the ice as it is considered school.

I wouldn't know how that would work since indoor facilities are to be closed, but just something that I heard.....

I don’t know about the Breakaway part, but where in the executive order does it say indoor rinks are to be closed? I looked on the state of MN website and couldn’t find it, though may have only read a summary. All it says is organized youth and adult sports.

[WestMetro]

No BA ice time I’m told

[goldy313]

By law Walz can only order the mandates for 30 days at a time. If you think he will let them expire on December 18th just in time for Christmas and New Years......

[InThePipes]

If you think he will let them expire on December 18th just in time for Christmas and New Years......

This quote he allowed to slip is telling:

On WCCO Radio on Friday, Walz said he’s in discussions with his finance advisers about what the state can do, especially if no new federal assistance is approved by Congress. “We’re turning over every stone. I think we all need to be able to go a long ways,” Walz said without getting into specific details. “If they don’t, we need to act in the moment. This is not as if these folks can hang on until we decide that everything is okay in February and March.”

[diablo26]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/high-schoo ... s-covid-19
Wisconsin study: High school sports have not spread the coronavirus

Our kids deserve better... maybe stop interstate play - hotel stay hockey travel, but no reason to suck the life out of our kids - my best friend is an acting pediatric surgeon (works at a nationally renowned Children's Hospital) and backs this article 100% - you say no politics but this all politics

[Getitright]

I think we all need to recognize that just because someone has a different viewpoint on an issue doesn’t make it political.

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

Still genuinely waiting for somebody to show me the part of the executive order that specifically closes hockey rinks? Confused how that became the assumption. Or is this a business decision because keeping rinks open with no youth hockey teams would lose money? Again, I may be looking in the wrong spot.

[jg2112]

Still genuinely waiting for somebody to show me the part of the executive order that specifically closes hockey rinks? Confused how that became the assumption. Or is this a business decision because keeping rinks open with no youth hockey teams would lose money? Again, I may be looking in the wrong spot.

These are the relevant provisions. In combination, these shut down the ice rinks:

“Place of Public Accommodation” means a business, or an educational,
refreshment, entertainment, recreation facility, or an institution of any kind,
whether licensed or not, whose goods, services, facilities, privileges,
advantages, or accommodations are extended, offered, sold, or otherwise
made available to the public.

iii. Certain Places of Public Accommodation Closed to Members of
the Public. The following Places of Public Accommodation are closed
to members of the public as set forth below. “Members of the public”
means people who are not workers affiliated with the Place of Public
Accommodation.

C. Gymnasiums, fitness centers, recreation centers, indoor sports
facilities, indoor climbing facilities, trampoline parks, indoor
and outdoor exercise facilities, martial arts facilities, and dance
and exercise studios are closed to ingress, egress, use, and
occupancy by members of the public. This includes shared or
communal facilities serving more than a single household,
regardless of whether such facilities are open to the public,
including but not limited to those facilities located in an
apartment building, condominium, or housing complex.

g. Organized Youth Sports. Organized Youth Sports organizations and
programs must stop all in-person activities—including practices, group
workouts, games, and tournaments.

i. “Organized Youth Sports” means any sports activity, where
participants are children or adolescents, organized by an entity,
association, club, or organization providing for registration of
participants and oversight on a regular basis for a defined period of
time. Sports activities within this definition include all sports offered
by schools (public and nonpublic), the Minnesota State High School
League, or similar organizations, as well as dance, cheerleading, and
other sports traditionally offered by supplemental associations or
organizations.

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

Still genuinely waiting for somebody to show me the part of the executive order that specifically closes hockey rinks? Confused how that became the assumption. Or is this a business decision because keeping rinks open with no youth hockey teams would lose money? Again, I may be looking in the wrong spot.

These are the relevant provisions. In combination, these shut down the ice rinks:

“Place of Public Accommodation” means a business, or an educational,
refreshment, entertainment, recreation facility, or an institution of any kind,
whether licensed or not, whose goods, services, facilities, privileges,
advantages, or accommodations are extended, offered, sold, or otherwise
made available to the public.

iii. Certain Places of Public Accommodation Closed to Members of
the Public. The following Places of Public Accommodation are closed
to members of the public as set forth below. “Members of the public”
means people who are not workers affiliated with the Place of Public
Accommodation.

C. Gymnasiums, fitness centers, recreation centers, indoor sports
facilities, indoor climbing facilities, trampoline parks, indoor
and outdoor exercise facilities, martial arts facilities, and dance
and exercise studios are closed to ingress, egress, use, and
occupancy by members of the public. This includes shared or
communal facilities serving more than a single household,
regardless of whether such facilities are open to the public,
including but not limited to those facilities located in an
apartment building, condominium, or housing complex.

g. Organized Youth Sports. Organized Youth Sports organizations and
programs must stop all in-person activities—including practices, group
workouts, games, and tournaments.

i. “Organized Youth Sports” means any sports activity, where
participants are children or adolescents, organized by an entity,
association, club, or organization providing for registration of
participants and oversight on a regular basis for a defined period of
time. Sports activities within this definition include all sports offered
by schools (public and nonpublic), the Minnesota State High School
League, or similar organizations, as well as dance, cheerleading, and
other sports traditionally offered by supplemental associations or
organizations.

Thank you jg. Just what I was looking for.

[Wise Old Man]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/high-schoo ... s-covid-19
Wisconsin study: High school sports have not spread the coronavirus

Our kids deserve better... maybe stop interstate play - hotel stay hockey travel, but no reason to suck the life out of our kids - my best friend is an acting pediatric surgeon (works at a nationally renowned Children's Hospital) and backs this article 100% - you say no politics but this all politics

Diablo26... I think we can all agree that none of us wanted this to happen. Some of us might support the decision, but certainly were hoping it could be avoided. Regardless, thanks for sharing the article. It was actually linked to a few weeks back in these forums. Please keep in mind that the survey/study was done on fall sports which, are usually conducted outdoors. Unfortunately, over the last two plus months, hockey has quickly become viewed as one of the riskiest indoor activities/sports. Especially if everyone involved can't be placed in a bubble AND tested on a daily basis (or even two to three times a week basis like the NCAA is requiring). Not sure if you saw this but, here's a paragraph from the article you presented about Madison area schools...

"The Madison Metropolitan School District announced Monday that it will not hold any winter athletics programming through at least Jan. 24. Dane County health officials have outlawed games and competitions for medium- and high-risk sports, including volleyball, soccer, basketball, tennis, football and hockey."

To add to the paragraph above, I present some links to a few other articles that clearly show that the sport is struggling to prevent infections at the rink...

https://patch.com/pennsylvania/norristo ... ckey-teams

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/c ... -1.5786399

Here's a Tweet from the Ottawa Public Health department related to the above article...

COVID has one goal. To spread. Here are the repercussions of ONE source of #COVID19 at an indoor sports practice.

60 people (still rising) tested positive over 18 days.

170+ people needed to self-isolate and 7 outbreaks were declared.

Our actions matter. Please be #COVIDWise


From Vermont...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/us/vermo ... index.html

From New Hampshire...they paused all hockey for at least two weeks back on Oct. 15th.

"CONCORD, N.H. (AP) — New Hampshire is “pausing” all hockey activities in indoor rinks for two weeks following positive COVID-19 tests for 158 people associated with the sport over the last two months, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and health officials said Thursday."

"Dr. Ben Chan, state epidemiologist, said the cases are from 23 different hockey-related New Hampshire organizations and teams, “and there are additional connections with out-of-state ice hockey organizations.” Chan said people who have acquired the virus through hockey have been associated with, and potentially exposed others, in at least 24 different K-12 schools throughout the state. “This type of spread and exposure to other facilities and organizations within the community increases the risk of introduction and spread of COVID-19 in other settings outside of hockey,” Chan said.

This is in regards to an outbreak between two Tier III Junior teams down south...

https://www.mdjonline.com/news/hockey-g ... bf96f.html

This is from the Northeast/New England area...

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/interstate- ... ral-states

More from New England...

https://www.fosters.com/story/news/coro ... 114252578/

Boston area from Oct. 27 where the governor of Massachusetts paused all hockey through Nov. 7...

https://www.wwlp.com/news/state-politic ... aker-says/

From the article... During a Tuesday press conference, Gov. Charlie Baker and his health chief said their decision was prompted not only by the multiple clusters but also because some adults and coaches stymied the state’s attempts to get a grasp of how far transmission spread.

“There were a number of instances where the team would not hand over the rosters of players, so you didn’t even know who was playing for us to make the contact, or coaches in a couple of instances telling families and the players to not respond to the contact tracers,” Health and Human Services Secretary Marylou Sudders told reporters. “Not sharing the rosters so that you can’t make the phone calls is, for us, not acceptable.” Neither Baker nor Sudders identified any specific teams that refused to provide information about its players and who might have had contact with COVID-positive individuals. On several other occasions, team leaders told players that if they were under quarantine, they could not play for their regular team but could play for other teams — a system that is “obviously not quarantine,” Sudders said.

A DPH investigation identified more than 30 COVID clusters linked to youth hockey, Baker said, with at least 110 confirmed cases and 22 more probable cases spread across at least 66 cities and towns. Those numbers are likely “undercounted,” Baker said, “due to the lack of cooperation” that met investigators.

Here's an article from Nov. 18 with video regarding two teams from the Manitoba Junior Hockey League (MJHL) who chose to violate restrictions...

https://globalnews.ca/news/7471173/covi ... -practice/

As the article notes, the entire league is on pause until at least Jan. 1st

Also, both the British Columbia Hockey League (BCHL) and the Pacific Junior Hockey League (PJHL) just had to pause all activity due to Covid as the BC Public Health department restricted activity.

And, Calgary shut down all minor/youth sports for two weeks...

https://calgaryherald.com/news/thousand ... -two-weeks

Here's an article regarding the QMJHL...

https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hock ... -outbreaks

Also, all sports except at the professional levels are now on pause for four weeks in the greater Toronto metro area. Hockey in that area of Canada is even bigger than it is here. Yet, they are paused as well.

Finally, here's an article I posted previously regarding a youth tourney in early October in Anchorage, AK

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2020/10 ... ournament/

For the last few months many here have argued that there hasn't been hardly any positive cases associated with youth or high school level hockey. Both through the summer and into the early fall. My point in including all of these articles from literally all areas of the continent is simply to show that that obviously isn't true. In fact, there is ample evidence that the virus is spreading through hockey specific activity in ways it doesn't through other activities. Our own health department is stating that hockey is associated with the most outbreaks of any sport.

Our players are not the only ones having to sacrifice for the greater good. In fact, almost every other area where hockey is popular is pausing for a significant amount of time. Meaning, strictly from a loss of development standpoint, almost everyone in both the U.S. and Canada is dealing with the same challenges and will be "losing" the same amount.

I think we all understand and agree that the vast majority of players from youth thru college will not experience a severe outcome if infected. Although a part of the discussion, it's more about who they infect at school (if not on-line) or in their homes, or greater community. It's also about the fact our ERs and overall health systems are close to becoming overwhelmed. If we continue to allow activities that both increase virus spread, as well as create non-Covid injury issues that need ER treatment thus stressing our nurses and doctors even more, we only contribute to those challenges.

For those that question the rationale of pausing hockey or any other activity, I simply ask, are all of the various state and provincial health leaders who are recommending these actions wrong? Are they all politically motivated? Don't you think many of them have their own kids, or nieces, or nephews, or cousins that their decisions will negatively affect and, that they would much rather not have to make these recommendations? Again, this sucks and I truly hope it doesn't last any longer than the four weeks currently stated. But, if it does last longer, vaccines are on the way and almost everything points to a return to normal by next fall. Although it might seem like "forever", it's only another 4-6 months. No matter how challenging it might be for our kids and us not to enjoy the game we all love, that challenge won't compare to the one that thousands of people will face that are unfortunate enough to have a serious outcome from this disease. I will say again...the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one... Stay safe everyone and have a great Thanksgiving.

[spamtownusa]

WOM - I agree with the statement that you’ve made once again... “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one...” The problem is, that’s not what is happening.

The needs of the vast majority of people are being ignored (e.g., the need to earn a living in order to support their family, the need for children to receive a quality education, the need for social interaction, the need for healthy physical activity, etc.). Less then 0.5% of of people who get COVID are hospitalized. The needs of the few are winning.

Put a mask on, wash your hands and keep your distance. You don’t have to shut the whole State down. Put a real plan together that protects those that truly need it (the elderly, people with underlying health conditions and those who are treating them) without disregarding the needs of the vast majority of others. The vaccine will be what gets us out of this. It sounds like it will be available before the end of the year. Let’s get it out to the right people ASAP.

[Getitright]

Spamtownusa. Totally agree. Unfortunately we have about 1/3 of our population that choose not to abide by the face mask, wash hands protocol. That’s why it’s come to this. I am no scientist but can be pretty comfortable in saying if we had 95% abiding the rule, thus would not be happening. Don’t blame the politicians. Blame them this refusing to be inconvenienced.