PageStat 2020-21
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
Re: PageStat 2020-21
Well there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.
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Re: PageStat 2020-21
Yeah, I was thinking pretty much the same. After this season, most of us can just put it in our rear view mirror. (Especially East fans...ugh )Sparlimb wrote: ↑Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:05 pmWell there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.
Lee
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Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
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Re: PageStat 2020-21
Such a tough year in many regards, so I'm not acting like this is in any way unique. That said, I did hear the Gentry-Blake game fell on a date where some d-men on the Bears were unavailable. Not sure if they had Covid or were being held out because of it.east hockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:04 pmThe problem with Gentry and PageStat is a different one--they've only played one game against a team (Blake) which goes into their rating.
In a normal year there would be so much to dilute an outlier. Not in 2021.
Be kind. Rewind.
Re: PageStat 2020-21
I had a thought last night, which sounded like a good idea but likely will lead to no action from me. What I'd like to do, is take all the previous years and schedules of teams and feed it into a machine learning algorithm. You tell it who won at the end of the year and then you see what kind of predictions it makes going forward. Would be fun to play with, but I don't have enough experience to do it on my own.east hockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:09 pmYeah, I was thinking pretty much the same. After this season, most of us can just put it in our rear view mirror. (Especially East fans...ugh )Sparlimb wrote: ↑Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:05 pmWell there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.
Lee
Re: PageStat 2020-21
But by the time you did it you would have plenty of experience.Sparlimb wrote: ↑Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:42 amI had a thought last night, which sounded like a good idea but likely will lead to no action from me. What I'd like to do, is take all the previous years and schedules of teams and feed it into a machine learning algorithm. You tell it who won at the end of the year and then you see what kind of predictions it makes going forward. Would be fun to play with, but I don't have enough experience to do it on my own.east hockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:09 pmYeah, I was thinking pretty much the same. After this season, most of us can just put it in our rear view mirror. (Especially East fans...ugh )Sparlimb wrote: ↑Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:05 pmWell there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.
Lee
Still I will take Karl' / Stang's / even my own eye test.
(Although pagestat does good by year-end.)
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Re: PageStat 2020-21
Lee, how hard would it be to show SOS? I'm real curious about the variance between teams like Cretin or Lakeville South and the Lake teams.
Edina closed fairly strong to get above .500. They had a gauntlet.
3x - EP, Tonka, Wayz
2x - H-M, Buff, STMA
1x - Benilde, STA, SLP
My assumption is the Lake teams bubble up to the top. Wonder who else would measure out anywhere close.
Don't bother if much work. I know the small data set renders all these computer tabulations flimsy compared to a normal year.
Edina closed fairly strong to get above .500. They had a gauntlet.
3x - EP, Tonka, Wayz
2x - H-M, Buff, STMA
1x - Benilde, STA, SLP
My assumption is the Lake teams bubble up to the top. Wonder who else would measure out anywhere close.
Don't bother if much work. I know the small data set renders all these computer tabulations flimsy compared to a normal year.
Be kind. Rewind.
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Re: PageStat 2020-21
Easy to do. Keep in mind these are the SOS for all games, including some which PageStat doesn't count because some games get dumped due to the PageStat difference being higher than the goal cap (it's +5 this season--it was previously +6 but a new analysis changed the goal cap which predicted the highest number of section game winners). I can do a separate listing for the "net" SOS.O-townClown wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:25 pmLee, how hard would it be to show SOS? I'm real curious about the variance between teams like Cretin or Lakeville South and the Lake teams.
Edina closed fairly strong to get above .500. They had a gauntlet.
3x - EP, Tonka, Wayz
2x - H-M, Buff, STMA
1x - Benilde, STA, SLP
My assumption is the Lake teams bubble up to the top. Wonder who else would measure out anywhere close.
Don't bother if much work. I know the small data set renders all these computer tabulations flimsy compared to a normal year.
1. Edina
2. Wayzata
3. St Michael-Albertville
4. Eden Prairie
5. Moorhead
6. Minnetonka
7. Grand Rapids
8. Roseau
9. Duluth East
10. Buffalo
11. Hill-Murray
12. Benilde-St Margarets
13. East Grand Forks
14. St Thomas Academy
15. Mahtomedi
16. Blake
17. Maple Grove
18. Champlin Park
19. Holy Family
20. Elk River
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
Re: PageStat 2020-21
SOS list Definitely passes the common sense smell test to me
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Re: PageStat 2020-21
As a comparison with last season:east hockey wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:45 pmEasy to do. Keep in mind these are the SOS for all games, including some which PageStat doesn't count because some games get dumped due to the PageStat difference being higher than the goal cap (it's +5 this season--it was previously +6 but a new analysis changed the goal cap which predicted the highest number of section game winners). I can do a separate listing for the "net" SOS.O-townClown wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:25 pmLee, how hard would it be to show SOS? I'm real curious about the variance between teams like Cretin or Lakeville South and the Lake teams.
Edina closed fairly strong to get above .500. They had a gauntlet.
3x - EP, Tonka, Wayz
2x - H-M, Buff, STMA
1x - Benilde, STA, SLP
My assumption is the Lake teams bubble up to the top. Wonder who else would measure out anywhere close.
Don't bother if much work. I know the small data set renders all these computer tabulations flimsy compared to a normal year.
1. Edina
2. Wayzata
3. St Michael-Albertville
4. Eden Prairie
5. Moorhead
6. Minnetonka
7. Grand Rapids
8. Roseau
9. Duluth East
10. Buffalo
11. Hill-Murray
12. Benilde-St Margarets
13. East Grand Forks
14. St Thomas Academy
15. Mahtomedi
16. Blake
17. Maple Grove
18. Champlin Park
19. Holy Family
20. Elk River
Lee
http://minnhock.com/sos2020.htm
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006