PageStat 2020-21

The Latest 400 or so Topics

Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)

Sparlimb
Posts: 2491
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by Sparlimb » Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:05 pm

Well there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.

east hockey
Site Admin
Posts: 7267
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
Location: Proctor, MN

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by east hockey » Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:09 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:05 pm
Well there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.
Yeah, I was thinking pretty much the same. After this season, most of us can just put it in our rear view mirror. (Especially East fans...ugh :) )

Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006

O-townClown
Posts: 4354
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by O-townClown » Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:23 pm

east hockey wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:04 pm
The problem with Gentry and PageStat is a different one--they've only played one game against a team (Blake) which goes into their rating.
Such a tough year in many regards, so I'm not acting like this is in any way unique. That said, I did hear the Gentry-Blake game fell on a date where some d-men on the Bears were unavailable. Not sure if they had Covid or were being held out because of it.

In a normal year there would be so much to dilute an outlier. Not in 2021.
Be kind. Rewind.

Sparlimb
Posts: 2491
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by Sparlimb » Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:42 am

east hockey wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:09 pm
Sparlimb wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:05 pm
Well there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.
Yeah, I was thinking pretty much the same. After this season, most of us can just put it in our rear view mirror. (Especially East fans...ugh :) )

Lee
I had a thought last night, which sounded like a good idea but likely will lead to no action from me. What I'd like to do, is take all the previous years and schedules of teams and feed it into a machine learning algorithm. You tell it who won at the end of the year and then you see what kind of predictions it makes going forward. Would be fun to play with, but I don't have enough experience to do it on my own.

elliott70
Posts: 15412
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2004 3:47 pm
Location: Bemidji

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by elliott70 » Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:20 am

Sparlimb wrote:
Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:42 am
east hockey wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:09 pm
Sparlimb wrote:
Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:05 pm
Well there is no need to fix anything. The system isn't designed to properly predict strength of teams when they are stuck in a conference only schedule. You could rank the teams within the conferences pretty easily, but without knowing whether LVS or MG had a better conference, you couldn't compare the two. It never worries me much anyway, because the best team usually doesn't win state and every team has a chance to prove it should be them no matter what. But thanks for running the numbers anyway, its always interesting to see.
Yeah, I was thinking pretty much the same. After this season, most of us can just put it in our rear view mirror. (Especially East fans...ugh :) )

Lee
I had a thought last night, which sounded like a good idea but likely will lead to no action from me. What I'd like to do, is take all the previous years and schedules of teams and feed it into a machine learning algorithm. You tell it who won at the end of the year and then you see what kind of predictions it makes going forward. Would be fun to play with, but I don't have enough experience to do it on my own.
But by the time you did it you would have plenty of experience.

Still I will take Karl' / Stang's / even my own eye test.
(Although pagestat does good by year-end.)

O-townClown
Posts: 4354
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by O-townClown » Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:25 pm

Lee, how hard would it be to show SOS? I'm real curious about the variance between teams like Cretin or Lakeville South and the Lake teams.

Edina closed fairly strong to get above .500. They had a gauntlet.

3x - EP, Tonka, Wayz
2x - H-M, Buff, STMA
1x - Benilde, STA, SLP

My assumption is the Lake teams bubble up to the top. Wonder who else would measure out anywhere close.

Don't bother if much work. I know the small data set renders all these computer tabulations flimsy compared to a normal year.
Be kind. Rewind.

east hockey
Site Admin
Posts: 7267
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
Location: Proctor, MN

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by east hockey » Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:45 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:25 pm
Lee, how hard would it be to show SOS? I'm real curious about the variance between teams like Cretin or Lakeville South and the Lake teams.

Edina closed fairly strong to get above .500. They had a gauntlet.

3x - EP, Tonka, Wayz
2x - H-M, Buff, STMA
1x - Benilde, STA, SLP

My assumption is the Lake teams bubble up to the top. Wonder who else would measure out anywhere close.

Don't bother if much work. I know the small data set renders all these computer tabulations flimsy compared to a normal year.
Easy to do. Keep in mind these are the SOS for all games, including some which PageStat doesn't count because some games get dumped due to the PageStat difference being higher than the goal cap (it's +5 this season--it was previously +6 but a new analysis changed the goal cap which predicted the highest number of section game winners). I can do a separate listing for the "net" SOS.

1. Edina
2. Wayzata
3. St Michael-Albertville
4. Eden Prairie
5. Moorhead
6. Minnetonka
7. Grand Rapids
8. Roseau
9. Duluth East
10. Buffalo
11. Hill-Murray
12. Benilde-St Margarets
13. East Grand Forks
14. St Thomas Academy
15. Mahtomedi
16. Blake
17. Maple Grove
18. Champlin Park
19. Holy Family
20. Elk River

Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006

WestMetro
Posts: 3821
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:08 pm

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by WestMetro » Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:55 pm

SOS list Definitely passes the common sense smell test to me

O-townClown
Posts: 4354
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by O-townClown » Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:47 am

Lee, thank you for running this! Very much appreciated.
Be kind. Rewind.

east hockey
Site Admin
Posts: 7267
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
Location: Proctor, MN

Re: PageStat 2020-21

Post by east hockey » Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:50 am

east hockey wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:45 pm
O-townClown wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:25 pm
Lee, how hard would it be to show SOS? I'm real curious about the variance between teams like Cretin or Lakeville South and the Lake teams.

Edina closed fairly strong to get above .500. They had a gauntlet.

3x - EP, Tonka, Wayz
2x - H-M, Buff, STMA
1x - Benilde, STA, SLP

My assumption is the Lake teams bubble up to the top. Wonder who else would measure out anywhere close.

Don't bother if much work. I know the small data set renders all these computer tabulations flimsy compared to a normal year.
Easy to do. Keep in mind these are the SOS for all games, including some which PageStat doesn't count because some games get dumped due to the PageStat difference being higher than the goal cap (it's +5 this season--it was previously +6 but a new analysis changed the goal cap which predicted the highest number of section game winners). I can do a separate listing for the "net" SOS.

1. Edina
2. Wayzata
3. St Michael-Albertville
4. Eden Prairie
5. Moorhead
6. Minnetonka
7. Grand Rapids
8. Roseau
9. Duluth East
10. Buffalo
11. Hill-Murray
12. Benilde-St Margarets
13. East Grand Forks
14. St Thomas Academy
15. Mahtomedi
16. Blake
17. Maple Grove
18. Champlin Park
19. Holy Family
20. Elk River

Lee
As a comparison with last season:

http://minnhock.com/sos2020.htm

Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006

Post Reply