AA Rankings for 2/21/21

[karl(east)]

A bit more excitement here than in most weeks over the past season. With three weeks and change left in the regular season, the top 15:

1. Maple Grove (11-0)
-Ho hum: two more games, two more crooked numbers against Northwest Suburban opponents. The week ahead is their most interesting one of the regular season, as they play arguably two of the better teams in the Northwest Suburban, both on the road. Is this the week someone can finally give them a game?
This week: Tues at #13 Centennial, Sat at #15 Totino-Grace

2. Eden Prairie (10-1)
-Another week, another pair of quality wins for the Eagles, who look more and more complete as they march along against perhaps the toughest schedule out there. They avenged their lone loss, though the game was still tight enough that it shows they’re no guarantee. But with their top line’s otherworldly finishing ability and the lower lines rounding into form, they’re making a play for the top spot in the state. By their schedule’s standards, the week ahead is an easy one.
This week: Thurs vs. Mahtomedi, Sat vs. Buffalo

3. Lakeville South (10-0)
-The Cougars are suffering through a bout of cancellations, but they’re doing what they need to do in the games they do play; their one-spot drop has nothing to do with their own efforts and everything to do with Eden Prairie’s schedule; if they win out, I don’t see them going any lower. The week ahead features a rival and one of the few conference opponents capable of competing with them.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. #14 Rosemount

4. Grand Rapids (7-1)
-The Thunderhawks stood pat, which leaves them stationary in the rankings. Few teams have a more intense sprint to the finish, which will kick off with two quality western visitors.
This week: Thurs vs. Moorhead, Sat vs. Warroad

5. Hill-Murray (9-2)
-The Pioneers had an offensive outburst against Holy Family before going back to methodically doing their thing against Wayzata. The risk of an offensive power outage at the wrong time remains, but it’s hard to find anything else to critique in this team’s fundamentals. The next challenge: Benilde.
This week: Tues at Simley, Sat at #8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

6. Prior Lake (10-1-1)
-The Lakers avenged the one borderline shaky result on their schedule with a solid effort over Rosemount, and since I think their achievements are a little more impressive than those of some other teams in this area, I’ve given them the biggest boost here. On paper there shouldn’t be much cause for concern these next two weeks.
This week: Thurs vs. Burnsville, Sat vs. Eagan

7. Andover (10-1)
-The Huskies keep on rolling, and many of their scorelines are holding up well as the season goes along. The week ahead is an interesting one, with a visit to a Totino team that gave them a one-goal game the first time around and a section rival.
This week: Tues at #15 Totino-Grace, Sat at Elk River

8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (11-1)
-The Red Knights’ unbeaten season crumbled at the Eden Prairie Community Center on Tuesday, where they simply couldn’t match up with the Eagles’ scoring touch and lockdown defense. They’re certainly a good team, but lack that edge that would tip them higher here. An adventure with Chaska later in the week doesn’t help the cause, either. The tough part of the schedule now continues against two of the state’s powers.
This week: Fri at Edina, Sat vs. #5 Hill-Murray

9. Wayzata (7-4)
-The Trojans collected a respectable win over Moorhead and put up an alright fight in a loss to Hill, which does little to change their status as a top ten team. Their next few games are against some very familiar foes they’ve already beaten this season, so we’ll see if they can back that up again.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Edina

10. Cretin-Derham Hall (10-1)
-The Raiders handled Roseville in their only action. Games this week include a Woodbury team that just picked up a decent win and the one team to blemish their record so far.
This week: Thurs vs. Woodbury, Sat vs. Stillwater

11. Minnetonka (8-3)
-The Skippers made short work of a St. Louis Park team that has given some good teams trouble this year before shutting out Owatonna. Is the third time the charm against Wayzata?
This week: Thurs at #9 Wayzata, Sat at St. Michael-Albertville

12. St. Thomas Academy (7-1-3)
-The Cadets’ tie-fest against good-but-not-great teams raises some alarm. A charitable explanation would be that they’re trying to correct for some of their early season defensive woes and trying to lock down now, but for an offense this potent, their recent trendline is not positive. We’ll see what they can do with some visiting Greyhounds.
This week: Tues vs. Henry Sibley, Sat vs. Duluth East

13. Centennial (7-2-1)
-The Cougars continue to round into form and got a good win over Rogers. Next, they’ll try to make the Maple Grove rematch a bit more interesting than the first meeting.
This week: Tues vs. #1 Maple Grove, Sat at Champlin Park

14. Rosemount (7-2-1)
-The loss to Prior Lake is a step backward from the earlier tie, but with no one else making many moves in this part of the rankings, it doesn’t cost the Irish much. Now, can they hang with South at all?
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat at #3 Lakeville South

15. Totino-Grace (5-2-1)
-The Eagles return to the land of the ranked as they continue to collect wins; it’s a tenuous spot, as their best win is Rogers and they have a loss to Blaine, but they tied Centennial as well and get pulled up by the Cougars some. Nothing comes easy this coming week, so we’ll see if they can prove something or just go crashing right back out.
This week: Tues vs. #7 Andover, Sat at Blaine, Sat vs. #1 Maple Grove

The Next Ten

Holy Family (6-3-1)
-Hill-Murray quenched the Fire’s recent surge somewhat, but they got back at it with a win over Hutchinson. The schedule lightens up a bit from here on out, and they should roll against Waconia and New Prague.

Edina (5-6-1)
-The Hornets gave Eden Prairie a very good run, which keeps them steady here; once again, that offensive firepower was missing against a good team. It doesn’t get much easier this week as they play two top ten section opponents, Wayzata and Benilde.

White Bear Lake (10-2)
-The Bears have now rattled off seven wins in a row and are sitting prettier than they were in 4AA. A thorny Forest Lake team leads off the coming week.

Rogers (7-4)
-Losses to Maple Grove and Centennial aren’t unexpected, so the Royals stay in this general realm. They can score some goals, but they sure do give up a lot, too. Armstrong/Cooper and Osseo are up next.

Roseau (7-4)
-The Rams avenged the ugly early loss to Warroad, which is obviously a positive sign. The rematch with East Grand Forks this coming week will be an interesting barometer of how they do against a good opponent with all of their bodies now in the lineup. How much can we blame the absences for their 3-game losing streak?

Moorhead (5-5-1)
-The Spuds had a close call with Bemidji and were held in check by Wayzata, which has them wavering somewhat here. They have a 7AA-filled week involving Duluth East and Grand Rapids.

Stillwater (8-2-1)
-The Ponies came unglued (or were made into glue, perhaps?) with a tie against Forest Lake and a loss to Woodbury this past week. They can right the ship in a hurry with a second win over Cretin this coming week.

Hastings (8-3)
-I have very little to say about this team as it continues its procession through the Metro East. They finally face something of a test this week when they visit Mahtomedi.

Blaine (7-4)
-The Bengals have a decent record and a win over Totino; a loss to Elk River is the only real negative on the ledger. They play Totino a second time this coming week.

Blake (4-5-1)
-The Bears win the inconsistency award for this unusual season, and this past week sums it up simply: is this a top 15 team that goes toe-to-toe with St. Thomas, or are they an afterthought that loses to Breck? For now, we’ll let them cling to a ranking. They now enter a much softer part of their schedule and should be able to beef up the record.

And now, sections:

1AA
3 Lakeville South
23 Hastings
Owatonna
Lakeville North
-Nothing terribly newsworthy happening here. South is the clear number one, while Hastings putters along; Owatonna’s showing against Minnetonka was predictable but changes nothing. The only real question is if North will get some sort of bump for being North.

2AA
2 Eden Prairie
6 Prior Lake
11 Minnetonka
16 Holy Family
-The preseason order here has only solidified over time, and it would take a pretty dramatic shift to disrupt this one at this point. Even a loss to Minnetonka in their rematch next week probably wouldn’t hurt Eden Prairie too much, while Holy Family’s setback this past week probably keeps the Fire from surging anywhere higher than #4.

3AA
12 St. Thomas Academy
14 Rosemount
Burnsville
Eastview
-The only real note here is that Eastview beat Burnsville for a season split, though with just four wins at the moment, it’s hard to see the Lightning going higher than #4. If St. Thomas’s ties snowball into something worse there’s some chance a strong finish from Rosemount could switch up the top spot, but it’s unlikely at this point.

4AA
5 Hill-Murray
18 White Bear Lake
22 Stillwater
Mounds View
-Any remaining doubt over the top seed here is probably gone after Stillwater’s loss to Woodbury. Beyond that, there’s plenty of room for debate, as the Suburban East teams are doing a good job of beating up on each other and creating all sorts of tortured ranking logic. That said, White Bear and Stillwater are doing enough to be 2 and 3, and for now, Mounds View edges out East Ridge and Woodbury for #4 in my book based on their overall body of work.

5AA
1 Maple Grove
13 Centennial
24 Blaine
15 Totino-Grace
-Number one is set, but the three teams fighting for the next three seeds all control their own destiny. After a little early doubt, Centennial has clambered back into position for the 2-seed, and can seal that up next week when they play Blaine twice and Totino, whom they tied in their first meeting. Blaine beat Totino the first time around, which is why they’re #3 for now, while Totino has that Centennial tie as a potential X factor. We’ll know where to put them all in two weeks.

6AA
8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
9 Wayzata
10 Cretin-Derham Hall
17 Edina
25 Blake
-Could the best section in the state not produce a seeded team at the Tournament? Barring some upsets, it’s entirely possible: while everyone is decent here, no one is really commanding any control of the race. Blake’s continued struggles make me loath to punish Wayzata for that early loss, but there is a scenario where the Bears go as high as #3 and leave the Lake teams playing in the first round again. St. Louis Park fell out of the top 25 after a bad week, but the Orioles have proven they’re no pushover as a 6-seed, too.

7AA
4 Grand Rapids
Duluth East
--
7 Andover
Forest Lake
-Again, the north-south split here removed any real seeding drama save perhaps the 2-seed in the south, where Forest Lake’s stronger record has the Rangers looking better than Elk River in QRF. Not much else to say here.

8AA
19 Rogers
21 Moorhead
20 Roseau
St. Michael-Albertville
-Gross. Rogers, with a strong record and no opportunities to take bad section losses, now may just be in line for a top seed. Moorhead will have the benefit of being battle-tested and has now beaten Roseau, but still has that STMA loss; Roseau is still probably the safest bet here when they’re healthy and on their game, but seeding tends not to care about that sort of thing. The choices for the 4-seed are currently 3-win STMA and 4-win Brainerd, which is not pretty; I’m giving it to the Knights because of that Moorhead win and the much tougher schedule, but I will forgive anyone who thinks otherwise. St. Cloud isn’t totally out of the conversation either, though they need to pick up a section win over two in the next few weesk.

[BlueLineSpecial]

I was curious where you'd put Benilde after their loss to EP, and #8 feels right. I do think you're undervaluing Cretin - a one goal loss to a decent Stillwater team (albeit one that's backsliding right now) dropped them from as high as #3 in your rankings to barely top 10. My gut tells me they'll go into sections with 1 loss, maybe 2, and the #1 seed. Benilde is not coming out of a brutal stretch of Edina, Hill, STA, Holy Family & Wayzata without at least one or two more losses. Wayzata has 4 losses and still has games against Edina twice, Grand Rapids, Minnetonka & Benilde.

Good read, as always.

[InThePipes]

I was curious where you'd put Benilde after their loss to EP, and #8 feels right. I do think you're undervaluing Cretin - a one goal loss to a decent Stillwater team (albeit one that's backsliding right now) dropped them from as high as #3 in your rankings to barely top 10. My gut tells me they'll go into sections with 1 loss, maybe 2, and the #1 seed. Benilde is not coming out of a brutal stretch of Edina, Hill, STA, Holy Family & Wayzata without at least one or two more losses. Wayzata has 4 losses and still has games against Edina twice, Grand Rapids, Minnetonka & Benilde.

Good read, as always.

CDH, BSM and Wayzata are all very talented teams, I think BSM and Wayzata both have more talent/depth across the roster than CDH. You're right though, seeding will be interesting because CDH will likely have a significantly better record than both at the end of the season and how many losses can BSM and Wayzata have before the coaches give a 1-2 loss CDH team the #1 seed?

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Blake (4-5-1)
-The Bears win the inconsistency award for this unusual season, and this past week sums it up simply: is this a top 15 team that goes toe-to-toe with St. Thomas, or are they an afterthought that loses to Buffalo? For now, we’ll let them cling to a ranking. They now enter a much softer part of their schedule and should be able to beef up the record.

In the extremely minor nitpick department: Blake lost to Breck this week, not Buffalo. Too many "B" teams. St. Louis Park was the 6AA team who lost to Buffalo. That was definitely a head scratcher.

Great job, as always.

[longrebound]

The Maple Grove game vs Andover, scheduled for Feb 25, has been moved to March 4th. The MSHSL only allows two games per week until the first week in March.

[InThePipes]

After a couple of weeks of mostly snoozer match-ups, looks like a few more interesting games this coming week.

[karl(east)]

Thanks for the corrections--updates made.

[BlueLineSpecial]

I was curious where you'd put Benilde after their loss to EP, and #8 feels right. I do think you're undervaluing Cretin - a one goal loss to a decent Stillwater team (albeit one that's backsliding right now) dropped them from as high as #3 in your rankings to barely top 10. My gut tells me they'll go into sections with 1 loss, maybe 2, and the #1 seed. Benilde is not coming out of a brutal stretch of Edina, Hill, STA, Holy Family & Wayzata without at least one or two more losses. Wayzata has 4 losses and still has games against Edina twice, Grand Rapids, Minnetonka & Benilde.

Good read, as always.

CDH, BSM and Wayzata are all very talented teams, I think BSM and Wayzata both have more talent/depth across the roster than CDH. You're right though, seeding will be interesting because CDH will likely have a significantly better record than both at the end of the season and how many losses can BSM and Wayzata have before the coaches give a 1-2 loss CDH team the #1 seed?

I suppose what I should have said was not that I think you're undervaluing them, but that I like CDH more than most. Time will tell, but whoever comes out of that section will be battletested and even without being seeded, will be quite the draw for a team.

[Green and White Fan]

Seedings will be difficult this year. Saying Rogers at this point is 1 in 8AA is just throwing a dart. I am not sure what coaches will look at come seeding time with not a single section game or common opponent. If Roseau finishes strong with wins over Moorhead and Brainerd, I have to believe they should be the #1 seed, aside from the fact that who knows how the southern teams will vote. Nobody wants to drive up to Roseau.

[elliott70]

Seedings will be difficult this year. Saying Rogers at this point is 1 in 8AA is just throwing a dart. I am not sure what coaches will look at come seeding time with not a single section game or common opponent. If Roseau finishes strong with wins over Moorhead and Brainerd, I have to believe they should be the #1 seed, aside from the fact that who knows how the southern teams will vote. Nobody wants to drive up to Roseau.

I do.

[Sparlimb]

Lakeville South is interesting. They are undefeated and rated #3. But they have so little competition. No real way to understand how good they are. This is going to be an interesting year in sections where I expect multiple #1 seeds to go down and may be the craziest State tourney since 2012 (when the top 4 seeds all lost in the QFs).

[InThePipes]

Lakeville South is interesting. They are undefeated and rated #3. But they have so little competition. No real way to understand how good they are. This is going to be an interesting year in sections where I expect multiple #1 seeds to go down and may be the craziest State tourney since 2012 (when the top 4 seeds all lost in the QFs).

Their competition isn't great, but they did handle both PL and Rosemount with relative ease in their first meetings. They have some depth combining senior leadership and impressive underclassmen and they play a very disciplined style, which can't always be said for several of the top teams this year. They won't be an easy out.

[Duluth_Topper]

Duluth East had 2 more seniors quit after the last game. One quit after Hermantown. This brings them 5 on the year. They have now also had to cancel the next 2 JV games.

https://www.eastgreyhounds.com/public/g ... chool/121/

[Green and White Fan]

Thanks Elliot. You are welcome here anytime!

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Duluth East had 2 more seniors quit after the last game. One quit after Hermantown. This brings them 5 on the year. They have now also had to cancel the next 2 JV games.

https://www.eastgreyhounds.com/public/g ... chool/121/

Wow, maybe I'm just naive, but it always surprises me to hear of a kid quitting a high caliber program mid-season.

[elliott70]

Thanks Elliot. You are welcome here anytime!

Before my first wife died we went often to visit her relatives.
Now maybe once a year for hockey.

[rainier2]

Duluth East had 2 more seniors quit after the last game. One quit after Hermantown. This brings them 5 on the year. They have now also had to cancel the next 2 JV games.

https://www.eastgreyhounds.com/public/g ... chool/121/

I see only six seniors listed on the Hub roster. Is there really only one left?

Is this the periodic "Randolph is playing underclassmen instead of upperclassmen" upheaval? You'd think Randolph's resume would make him immune to these mutinies by now.

[Stang5280]

Duluth East had 2 more seniors quit after the last game. One quit after Hermantown. This brings them 5 on the year. They have now also had to cancel the next 2 JV games.

https://www.eastgreyhounds.com/public/g ... chool/121/

Wow, maybe I'm just naive, but it always surprises me to hear of a kid quitting a high caliber program mid-season.

It was discussed on the podcast, though obviously Karl had to tread lightly. Reading between the lines, I am not sure these players would be seeing the ice the rest of the season, and Randolph is tearing the house down to the studs and starting over It also sounds like the JV team is done for the season due to the low numbers.

[Stang5280]

Duluth East had 2 more seniors quit after the last game. One quit after Hermantown. This brings them 5 on the year. They have now also had to cancel the next 2 JV games.

https://www.eastgreyhounds.com/public/g ... chool/121/

I see only six seniors listed on the Hub roster. Is there really only one left?

Is this the periodic "Randolph is playing underclassmen instead of upperclassmen" upheaval? You'd think Randolph's resume would make him immune to these mutinies by now.

The players in question have already been removed from the roster. Schools are quick about doing that on the hub.

[karl(east)]

Duluth East had 2 more seniors quit after the last game. One quit after Hermantown. This brings them 5 on the year. They have now also had to cancel the next 2 JV games.

https://www.eastgreyhounds.com/public/g ... chool/121/

I see only six seniors listed on the Hub roster. Is there really only one left?

Is this the periodic "Randolph is playing underclassmen instead of upperclassmen" upheaval? You'd think Randolph's resume would make him immune to these mutinies by now.

The players in question have already been removed from the roster. Schools are quick about doing that on the hub.

Here's what I can say:
-Two seniors quit very early on. Neither had ever really played varsity. One of these players wrote "the letter" referenced in the podcast, in which he said Randolph had told him he wouldn't be making the varsity roster but was welcome to play JV to continue to play hockey with his friends. At first he accepted this arrangement, but had a change of heart. I assume the other was in a similar situation.
-The third departure played a bit here and there and came shortly thereafter.
-The two most recent came after the Virginia game. These two seniors were on the third line and have a handful of points between them in their varsity careers spanning two seasons, and they were benched midway through the game in favor of a couple of sophomores (one of whom scored in this game). One of the departures was not a surprise to me. The other one, a bit more so.

It's probably no secret that I'm friendly with the East coaching staff, but I am also friendly with a number of the parents, including one whose kid is no longer with the team. I'm also not in the locker room and don't know what gets said there, or how things get communicated. That said, from a raw talent evaluation standpoint of someone who wants to see East put its best team on the ice, I have no real objections with the personnel moves they've made. This, I suppose, is the brutal reality of playing time in a large program, especially in a year where East has some talented underclassmen coming up and some down (by East standards) older classes. There just isn't enough room. This is especially hard for kids who had some success at the youth level.

This obviously sucks for the JV team, but my understanding is they will continue to play some of their games, and may seek replacement games for the ones they are losing this week. Playing with 9-10 skaters is fine in some situations, but starts to present a safety concern when facing very strong, deep AA opponents.

[karl(east)]

Update: East JV will play St. Thomas JV on Thursday and Benilde JV in March. That way they can shuttle a few 4th liners on to the JV and get an a playable roster.

[Sparlimb]

I see only six seniors listed on the Hub roster. Is there really only one left?

Is this the periodic "Randolph is playing underclassmen instead of upperclassmen" upheaval? You'd think Randolph's resume would make him immune to these mutinies by now.

The players in question have already been removed from the roster. Schools are quick about doing that on the hub.

Here's what I can say:
-Two seniors quit very early on. Neither had ever really played varsity. One of these players wrote "the letter" referenced in the podcast, in which he said Randolph had told him he wouldn't be making the varsity roster but was welcome to play JV to continue to play hockey with his friends. At first he accepted this arrangement, but had a change of heart. I assume the other was in a similar situation.
-The third departure played a bit here and there and came shortly thereafter.
-The two most recent came after the Virginia game. These two seniors were on the third line and have a handful of points between them in their varsity careers spanning two seasons, and they were benched midway through the game in favor of a couple of sophomores (one of whom scored in this game). One of the departures was not a surprise to me. The other one, a bit more so.

It's probably no secret that I'm friendly with the East coaching staff, but I am also friendly with a number of the parents, including one whose kid is no longer with the team. I'm also not in the locker room and don't know what gets said there, or how things get communicated. That said, from a raw talent evaluation standpoint of someone who wants to see East put its best team on the ice, I have no real objections with the personnel moves they've made. This, I suppose, is the brutal reality of playing time in a large program, especially in a year where East has some talented underclassmen coming up and some down (by East standards) older classes. There just isn't enough room. This is especially hard for kids who had some success at the youth level.

This obviously sucks for the JV team, but my understanding is they will continue to play some of their games, and may seek replacement games for the ones they are losing this week. Playing with 9-10 skaters is fine in some situations, but starts to present a safety concern when facing very strong, deep AA opponents.

So my oldest daughter played hockey for Irondale. But she didn't start playing hockey until 8th grade. So I taught her what I could, which is if they are faster, make them pay for it. You know... Old school. And anyway, her senior year, she played first line of JV (because that was her level) and 4th line of Varsity. My wife and I were fine with this, because that's where she belonged. Turns out Irondale that year, had a couple D1 studs and upset Mounds View to go to state. My daughter got to stay downtown with the team, be a semi-finalist at state and just get to enjoy the whole process. As parents, we got to go to the state tourney dinner they give the day before the tourney and enjoy seeing our daughter at the X. My point is that as parents we need to accept what are kids can play. And our kid might not be the star. That's okay. But let them play, let them be with their friends and see what can happen. I will never regret one minute of that season. Well...

As parent's we had to run the clock a lot. So I did this, because I was so involved in hockey. One game, Irondale plays Sibley, and it goes to OT. Irondale wins though, which made me happy. I reset the clock for the next game to zeroes and am ready to go collect my daughter. The guy doing the score sheet says what time was the goal. I look up, it says zeroes. I said at 4:39 or something like that. I'm like, who's ever going to know. That's a secret though, don't tell anyone...

According to the hub, it must have been Coon Rapids, because it was a the Sports Center and they didn't go to OT with Sibley that year. Possibly it was her junior year, who knows...

[MNHockeyFan]

Turns out Irondale that year, had a couple D1 studs and upset Mounds View to go to state.

Gina McDonald and Meghan Lorence. Played at Harvard and Minnesota respectively.
https://www.twincities.com/2010/02/24/i ... -together/

I enjoyed your post, by the way - great perspective and advice.