Carver County Alert

[Wise Old Man]

Heard from a friend that Waconia PW A team made a swing up to Duluth this past weekend to play all 4 District 11 PW A teams. After hearing about the situation in Carver County and, Waconia cancelling games in both the girls and boys high school programs, as well as the health department’s recommendation to pause all youth and high school sport’s in Carver County for two weeks starting today, along with the fact that the district tourney is this coming weekend, the East PW A team canceled it’s game against Waconia on Saturday evening. However, the other three teams (Proctor, Denfeld, and H-town) chose to play their games.

[WestMetro]

From strib article yesterday :

"Mayo Clinic modeling, made publicly available for the first time last Wednesday, showed little chance of a surge in COVID-19 in Minnesota in the coming weeks that compares to last fall's wave. The model, which has been used privately to guide Mayo on hospital demand and Gov. Tim Walz on the state's response strategy, was updated to account for the impact of the vaccine."

[O-townClown]

"Mayo Clinic modeling, made publicly available for the first time last Wednesday, showed little chance of a surge in COVID-19 in Minnesota in the coming weeks that compares to last fall's wave."

Good!

[Corn Cobb]

Looks like Mound-Westonka's (which pairs with Watertown-Mayer) final two regular season games have been canceled:

3/11 @LDC
3/13 vs Tartan

[WestMetro]

Chan and Chaska varsity schedules still intact this week

HF BSM game shows still scheduled Thursday

But Saturday HF Stma game shows cancelled . Anyone have insight?

[Hockeygoon00]

HF vs Benilde still on for Thursday for sure however STMA game is off on Saturday per source. HF probably the safest team in the state to play right now considering all players have tested.

[WestMetro]

Only 15 new cases in Carver County today .

Play on boys!

[O-townClown]

Thanks for these updates, Westy!

[WestMetro]

MDH tries to further explain last weeks unusual alert in this story/ article. Not sure why they felt the need to clarify

. Not sure if the added detail would change any opinions .

https://www.kare11.com/mobile/article/n ... 3757badd04

Meanwhile I see the CCHA #1 in the state Bantam AA team has found practice ice time at EP, Shakopee, and Edina . Didn’t check on the other teams , others can add comments

[WestMetro]

Additional developments:

For teams that did not pause for two weeks starting the 8th , MDH recommends ;

- Test all participants before each game , 2-3 days before game so results available prior to game

- Test all athletes weekly

Continue above thru the end of school year

Schools , associations , and rinks will have to assess

[WestMetro]

I mean haven’t cluster related outbreaks been going on in every town in every county related to every kind of activity for the last 52 weeks? That’s how Covid spreads.

At one point we had 7000 +new cases a day in Minnesota , now
we are under 1000. And vaccine penetration is progressing
well . Hospitalizations and deaths are way down also

Carver County has had way below normal per capita cases for about 11 out of the last 12 months , now the cases are simply up to what might be called a normal level of other outlying metro counties. Then today , new cases dropped back to 15

The new variant /mutation is in several other counties already and probably will further spread , and other variants will also arrive. Just a common sense prediction

Have similar recommended testing protocol burdens been added to to other locations. , employers ,or other social activity sites such as in Hennepin County ? Will they be?

[Wise Old Man]

Westy...the stricter guidance is due to the UK strain being the main variant that’s spreading. Statewide we had over 1600 cases yesterday. Up from around 400 something the day before. Certainly could be just an anomaly but, Osterholm started predicting back in late January that in the next 8-14 weeks the UK strain would likely cause the biggest increase in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. He’s qualified that prediction all along by saying he hopes he dead wrong but, he has said that once the UK strain became responsible for 50% of the cases or more that the numbers would increase substantially in a very short time frame. My guess is that the health department is erring on the side of caution in regards to the tighter testing parameters. Let’s hope yesterday’s case numbers were just a bump in the road and not a portent of anything significant.

[ROSEVILLEHOCKEYDAD]

Your #’s are a bit off for today and yesterday for MN cases-

3/10-Today

922 Cases

20,704 Tests

9 Deaths

4.5% Positivity Rate For March 10th, 2021.

3/9-Yesterday

Yesterday, 1,641 new cases reported, but only 750 new/10,056 tests (7.5%). Again, another one-day reporting issue.

750 Cases

10,056 Tests

2 Deaths

7.5% Positivity Rate For March 9th, 2021.

[WestMetro]

Wise -

Understand your points and guesses about MDH motives .

In contrast to Osterholm, refer to what Mayo Clinic said earlier this week , no sign of big spikes in their model

MDH says variant already in 11 counties , no doubt will spread further

Is MDH really thinking about another round of selective or complete shutdowns? Then more and more and more?

I stand by my observations and questions in my earlier post.
Where is the MDH crack down and recommended daily testing before large Hennepin County social activities. I mean those Henn cases have to be coming from some clusters somewhere ,right?

Carver county cases dropped to 15 in today’s report . C’mon! How low do you want them! Biweekly /weekly testing for all athletes for rest of school year?

How about daily testing at Maynards, Home Depot and Target?

[InThePipes]

With the cycle thresholds they employ for the PCR test that the false positive rate is certainly not zero, thus at some level we are likely also quarantining classrooms, teams, opponents, households for 10-14 days for false positive results.

[arcticpurple]

Looks like Mound-Westonka's (which pairs with Watertown-Mayer) final two regular season games have been canceled:

3/11 @LDC
3/13 vs Tartan

by choice...hearing they've canceled the last two games to be "ready" for sections. Whatever that means?? Remember when we used to play games to "get ready"?

[goldy313]

With the cycle thresholds they employ for the PCR test that the false positive rate is certainly not zero, thus at some level we are likely also quarantining classrooms, teams, opponents, households for 10-14 days for false positive results.

There is some really good information on the CDC and FDA web sites. Search for “false positive COVID tests. In a nutshell in sick people the false positive rate is ~.5% to .7%. In healthy people it is 1% to 1.4%. Meaning? If you are largely testing healthy people because you make them get tested it is really hard to get under the 3% threshold. At that rate almost 50% of your positive tests are false positives. Even at a 5% positive rate at least 20% of your positive results are false positive

(100 tests, 5 are positive hence a 5% positivity rate. At least 1 of the 5 are statistically a false positive, hence a 20% false positivity rate)

[InThePipes]

With the cycle thresholds they employ for the PCR test that the false positive rate is certainly not zero, thus at some level we are likely also quarantining classrooms, teams, opponents, households for 10-14 days for false positive results.

There is some really good information on the CDC and FDA web sites. Search for “false positive COVID tests. In a nutshell in sick people the false positive rate is ~.5% to .7%. In healthy people it is 1% to 1.4%. Meaning? If you are largely testing healthy people because you make them get tested it is really hard to get under the 3% threshold. At that rate almost 50% of your positive tests are false positives. Even at a 5% positive rate at least 20% of your positive results are false positive

(100 tests, 5 are positive hence a 5% positivity rate. At least 1 of the 5 are statistically a false positive, hence a 20% false positivity rate)

Precisely, MN has been hanging around a 3% positive rate in recent days/weeks, therefore about 1 out of every 3 positives that are reported are likely false positives.

[Corn Cobb]

Looks like Mound-Westonka's (which pairs with Watertown-Mayer) final two regular season games have been canceled:

3/11 @LDC
3/13 vs Tartan

by choice...hearing they've canceled the last two games to be "ready" for sections. Whatever that means?? Remember when we used to play games to "get ready"?

If true, that seems really lame. Especially considering the condensed schedule every team has this season. Sad.

[WestMetro]

From Strib article today in quotations below after my comments

I mean has this whole last week of publicity and test procedures in Carver County been about 29 cases in the last 6 weeks ? And half of those are actually in Shakopee Scott County ?? I mean Carver had only 26 new cases today and Scott 47 cases . Yet all the original MDH alerts and Star Tribune stories referred to Carver County only??

What about the UK variant cases reported already in 9 other Minnesota counties? Aren’t those considered “outbreaks”




“Nearly 200 cases of COVID-19 in Minnesota have involved the B.1.1.7 variant that caused school closures after it was identified in England.

Genomic sequencing has tied 29 cases of that variant to a COVID-19 outbreak centered on organized sports in suburban Carver County.

Included in that outbreak are 14 players from the Shakopee High School girls' hockey team. Sequencing of samples from nine players found the variant.”

[WestMetro]

Strib article today Monday.. Some unanswered questions if anyone can provide clarity

- This article say 140 cases now directly involved with Carver youth sports . I hadn’t seen this high 140 number before. Did this just jump dramatically ? 32 of these with UK marker. So a one in five ratio.
- Do we know the ages of the 12 hospitalized and 2 deaths? Were youth sports age individuals involved ?
-The Friday article said the cluster included Shakopee girls hockey . That would mean Scott is included not just Carver. This is important for understanding in relation to total population and sports activity. Scott has 1.5 X more population than Carver .
- article Says 251 total UK cases around the state - where are the clusters for the other 219 , and what are the cluster profiles that MDH has found ?





“A B.1.1.7 variant has been confirmed in 251 infections in Minnesota and is central to an outbreak among youth sports participants in Carver County.

Of the 140 cases in that outbreak involving young athletes, coaches, referees and household contacts, 32 have been linked through genomic sequencing to the variant, with results for another 67 pending. Cases in that outbreak include 12 people who were hospitalized and two deaths.”

[WestMetro]

Strib article Tuesday in quotes below at end :

Much good news in the state with cases, hospitalizations and deaths, but the Carver County story is still running for the 10th (?) day in a row ?

(And apparently not a single other cluster or unique activity in the state notable enough to mention in all that time ? )

Well, I know some good news . Chaska, Chan and HF are all scheduled to play Thursday night , and the BAA team is No.1 in the state .




“The positivity rate of diagnostic testing for COVID-19 rose from 3.5% to 3.9% in early March, but remains below a state caution threshold of 5% for viral activity.

Some of the growth in teen COVID-19 cases is fueled by more aggressive testing in that population and the identification of asymptomatic cases. Following the reopening of many schools to in-person learning, the Minnesota Department of Health recommended that K-12 students seek testing once every two weeks and that young athletes seek testing weekly and three days before any competitions.

An outbreak in Carver County has been centered on youth sports activities, but includes viral transmission that occurred at schools, fitness clubs, child-care centers and other locations. Numerous cases in that suburban outbreak have been found through genomic sequencing of lab samples to involve a more infectious B.1.1.7 variant of the virus that causes COVID-19.”

[WestMetro]

The headlines continue for Carver County , weeks after the first story line.

https://m.startribune.com/mapping-of-ca ... 600036697/

Is there any reason for continued headlines , other than that it is “ interesting mapping “ of the new variant ?

What about the rest of the state 10+ counties new variant mapping ? Equal mapping effort and media time for them?

What about regular large public gatherings in several areas of the state without social distance ? Any required testing of them 3 days before the events?

I was happy to see that Chanhassen, Chaska, and Holy family could complete their seasons in the normal course.

CCHA will make deep runs in regions and maybe at state

[goldy313]

Covid has played a huge part in section tournaments in southern Minnesota....

Boys hockey lost Mayo, Northfield, and forced East and Farmington to play their JV.

Girls basketball lost Century and top seed Red Wing.

Boys basketball lost John Marshall, Farmington, and East.

Maybe not so ironically the smaller schools who have been in school full time haven’t lost any schools due to Covid.

[Wise Old Man]

The headlines continue for Carver County , weeks after the first story line.

https://m.startribune.com/mapping-of-ca ... 600036697/

Is there any reason for continued headlines , other than that it is “ interesting mapping “ of the new variant ?

What about the rest of the state 10+ counties new variant mapping ? Equal mapping effort and media time for them?

What about regular large public gatherings in several areas of the state without social distance ? Any required testing of them 3 days before the events?

I was happy to see that Chanhassen, Chaska, and Holy family could complete their seasons in the normal course.

CCHA will make deep runs in regions and maybe at state

WM....in response to your question asking, “what about the rest of the state 10+ counties new variant mapping? Equal mapping effort and media time?”

It appears your answer is located in the article.

“Minnesota is known for this level of epidemiology in other areas, especially with its Team Diarrhea group unlocking the foodborne sources of national salmonella outbreaks in recent years. But the intensity and volume of COVID-19 cases over the past year prevented similar detailed investigations of the pandemic.”

And...

“Mapping also requires detailed reporting and contact tracing interviews, which have seen declining success over the past year as a wearied public has become less likely to participate and to provide information that could result in quarantines or restrictions. In the teeth of Minnesota's first COVID-19 wave last May, 27% of infections in communities could not be traced back to identifiable sources. Now, 44% are declared unknown.”

Finally...”State leaders feared resistance in Carver County — no parent or player wants to report a mild COVID-19 case that puts an entire team in lockdown — but found a community of school and sports leaders willing to pitch in.”

Luckily for the state investigators, in this specific situation, the leaders of the various entities were willing to make the hard decisions and do what the state asked. The greater point to your initial question being, they simply hadn’t had the resources to do the the level of genetic mapping required to get the detailed analysis prior to this event.

I’ll also add that the other issue — parents/coaches being completely honest and following the guidelines if their children/players or someone in their child’s immediate family show symptoms and/or tests positive actually reporting it as required — simply isn’t happening nearly as often as it should. Which, I said 8 months ago was going to be an issue. I personally know of 10 plus situations where parents knew their player(s) were either positive or, had met the definition of “close contact” yet, did not report the situation to either their player’s coach or the association involved. And, in at least 4 of those, the player’s team was involved in either a tournament or a weekend of swing games against multiple teams within a week of the player showing symptoms.