AA Rankings for 3/7/21

[karl(east)]

Surprisingly tight games for top teams! Big upsets! An upsurge in virus disruption! Toward the end of a season that has often been fairly sleepy in the ranking, this past week finally brought the excitement. It’s a fun hint of normal, other than the virus cases, which are, of course, bad. Anyway, rankings:

1. Maple Grove (15-0)
-The Crimson faced their stiffest test yet against Andover this past Thursday, but they pulled it out and finally had to win a close game. Is it a warning sign, or just the inevitable hiccup in a long season? The late season schedule revision may give us something of an answer. Barring a tie, this game will determine who has the first undefeated AA regular season since Benilde five seasons ago.
This week: Tues vs. #5 Lakeville South, Thurs vs. Champlin Park, Sat vs. Blaine

2. Hill-Murray (14-2)
-Sometimes I just go with my gut, especially in a season where it’s so hard to get accurate comparisons, and that’s exactly what I’m doing here. While the other top teams have all had close calls recently, the Pioneers have not: they’ve given up all of four goals in their nine games since their last loss, and just 16 in 16 total games (six of them coming in one pop against St. Thomas). We’ll learn if this was premature if they fall to the Cadets again this week, but I might as well take a stand here.
This week: Tues at #7 St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Blake

3. Eden Prairie (13-1-1)
-The Eagles wobbled this past week, with a tie against Minnetonka and a narrow win over St. Thomas. They need a healthy Jackson Blake to be truly scary, though they are at least getting some improved production out of some of their depth players. The final week will not be an easy one, as they play their nemesis Edina and have a second date with a tough St. Thomas team, so we’ll get a good sense of their direction headed into the playoffs.
This week: Mon at #10 Edina, Thurs at #7 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Chaska

4. Grand Rapids (12-1)
-The good news for the Thunderhawks: they avenged their lone loss on the season and took apart a good Hermantown team when given the opportunity, which cements a top five position that I’d been questioning a little. The bad: letting Duluth East stick around shows at least some vulnerability to a bad loss. Further tests abound in their busy close to the season, including a rematch with a Roseau team they handled earlier in the year and a road trip to face a quality Wayzata contingent.
This week: Mon vs. #14 Roseau, Sat at #9 Wayzata

5. Lakeville South (13-0-1)
-The Cougars took care of business, as expected. Now, however, they have their juiciest week of the regular season to wrap things up, with the Maple Grove game bringing together two of the teams atop closed-loop conferences and a rematch with the second-best team in their conference, Prior Lake.
This week: Tues at #1 Maple Grove, Thurs at #11 Prior Lake, Sat at Burnsville

6. Andover (13-2)
-The Huskies lost a game, but only boosted their stock by staying competitive with Maple Grove till the end. We won’t know exactly what that means for a little while longer, but for now, there’s no reason to believe it’s not a sign they’re a very good team, and primed to give Grand Rapids all it can handle in the section final, should those two teams meet there. They deal with the 5AA chase pack in their games this week, with the finale against Centennial being the most likely to be a source of intrigue.
This week: Tues vs. Champlin Park, Thurs vs. Blaine, Sat at Centennial

7. St. Thomas Academy (10-2-3)
-The Cadets had no trouble getting off to strong starts this past week, as they blitzed Benilde before letting the Red Knights crawl back into the game and took an early lead against Eden Prairie before letting it slip away. They can clearly skate with anyone, and I’m more confident in them now than I was a few weeks ago, but they’ll need some more complete efforts to make a play at a high seed at State. Their week ahead is as tough as it gets this season, so they’ll be plenty battle-tested heading into sections.
This week: Tues vs. #2 Hill-Murray, Thurs vs. #3 Eden Prairie

8. Cretin-Derham Hall (14-1)
-The Raiders rolled to another blowout win when they took down Forest Lake and seemed on pace to do the same against White Bear, which would have been a real statement. Perhaps it’s harsh to have St. Thomas leapfrog them in a week in which the Cadets lost, but we have to work with the data we have, and there just isn’t enough right now to say the Raiders will be great against higher-level competition.
This week: Tues vs. Irondale, Thurs vs. Park (Cottage Grove), Sat at East Ridge

9. Wayzata (9-5-1)
-Wayzata is in full Wayzata mode right now, with 2-1 overtime wins this past week over Edina and…Buffalo. The Trojans are going to finish second in the Lake after going 4-1-1 against Edina and Minnetonka, so that keeps them in okay shape in the rankings. The Buffalo tie is concerning but fully within character, and in the end, it was a win. Despite being done with their conference schedule, there’s no let-up now. They can probably wrap up at worst a 2-seed in 6AA with a win over Benilde, and Rapids will be an excellent final test, too.
This week: Wed at #15 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. #4 Grand Rapids

10. Edina (8-7-1)
-The Hornets couldn’t quite turn their recent surge into a full-blown movement up the rankings, but they remain competitive with anyone, and losses to other good Lake teams have near zero negative effect in these rankings now. They’ll go out with a bang, with a chance to disrupt the Lake’s best team once again and avenge two earlier shutout losses to Minnetonka.
This week: Mon vs. #3 Eden Prairie, Sat at #13 Minnetonka

11. Prior Lake (13-2-1)
-That clunking sound you hear from the southwest metro is the Lakers falling out of the top ten after a loss to Shakopee. Maybe a wake-up call at this point doesn’t hurt, but it does leave one wondering about a team as it heads into sections, where it has to deal with some very battle-tested Lake teams. South gives them an immediate opportunity to reclaim some pride.
This week: Thurs vs. #5 Lakeville South, Sat at Apple Valley

12. Rosemount (11-3-1)
-The Irish are flattening low-level South Suburban opponents. We’ll see if they can keep that up against some more mid-tier teams in the conference in their final week.
This week: Tues vs. Shakopee, Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. Eastview

13. Minnetonka (9-5-2)
-The Skippers showed some potential in a tie with Eden Prairie, and if they can make the 2AA final, they certainly won’t be intimidated by the Eagles. But they followed that up with a listless performance against Moorhead, which only underscores the ‘if’ in their quest to make the final. They’ve had success in their first two meetings with Edina, so we’ll see if they can do that again for a stronger finish.
This week: Thurs at Buffalo, Sat vs. #10 Edina

14. Roseau (11-4)
-Rams on the rise: the Green and White have now won six straight, and over that stretch have avenged three of their four losses. They get a chance to make up for the final loss this week, and if they pull that one out, well, look out.
This week: Mon at #4 Grand Rapids, Thurs vs. Brainerd, Sat at East Grand Forks

15. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (11-4)
-The Red Knights showed some late life to prevent another disastrous outing against a good team, but the ultimate loss to St. Thomas only underscores their recent trend. Their goals against average is over five in their last six games, which, bluntly, is bad. They sandwich a bunch of holiness around a huge section bellwether against Wayzata.
This week: Mon at Holy Angels, Wed vs. #9 Wayzata, Thurs at Holy Family(?)

The Next Ten

Holy Family (10-3-1)
-Covid killed the one interesting game the Fire had this past week, and they marched along against Class A conference opponents. As of this writing their status over the coming week is in doubt due to Covid protocol; if they do play, Thursday’s game with Benilde will be useful for this part of the rankings.

Centennial (11-3-1)
-The Cougars swept Blaine and beat Totino to lock up the 2-seed in 5AA. Anything more than that will be a tall order, but they appear to have found their spot as the best of the rest in that section. A second meeting with Andover gives them a chance to climb a bit here.

Moorhead (8-7-1)
-The Spuds came up short in their biggest game of the week, a narrow loss to Roseau, but otherwise acquitted themselves very well with a win over East Grand Forks and an even more impressive performance in shutting out Minnetonka. They’re now showing they can be dangerous, if nothing else. They have the 8AA Lake teams this week, and a win over St. Michael-Albertville would be very important for their seeding position given their earlier loss.

White Bear Lake (13-3-1)
-The Bears got an important section win over Stillwater mounted a decent comeback against Cretin before losing. The results lead me to think they’re pegged about right in here. They wrap things up with a single game against East Ridge this week.

Rogers (11-4)
-The Royals keep chugging along, and put up an impressive blowout of a decent Class A team in Alexandria. They double up with Anoka this week and also play an Armstrong/Cooper game that gave them a one goal game in the first meeting.

Hastings (11-5)
-Beat Mahtomedi, which keeps them in the top 25 in AA, but got smacked by Hill, which was telling, if not unexpected. They’ve picked up a game with Blake this week to make up for a Covid cancellation, which is a nice addition against a comparable opponent.

Shakopee (8-3-3)
-Time to give this team some credit and welcome it to the rankings for the first time ever. The win over Prior Lake is a solid boost, and they have no bad losses (though there are a couple of sketchy ties and other close calls). They’ll try to back that up this week when they get a crack at Rosemount.

Lakeville North (9-5-2)
-The Panthers are quietly on a decent little run, and going 0-1-1 against Shakopee doesn’t look nearly as problematic as it did a little while ago. Like Shakopee, they get one final chance to do something against a good team when they face Rosemount this week.

Totino-Grace (6-6-1)
-A loss to Champlin has this team sliding backward as they approach the end of the season. Beating Elk River this week is a must to stay alive in the rankings.

St. Louis Park (9-4-1)
-Strangely enough, going into Covid shutdown may have helped the Orioles’ seeding position; they’ve twice beaten the Chaska team that just took down Blake, and they appear to have the best credential of those three bubble teams here. Their season appears to be done due to the virus, so now they’ll wait, and we’ll see how fresh they can be if they leap right in to a tough section quarterfinal.

And, with one week left, a tour of the sections.

1AA
5 Lakeville South
21 Hastings
Owatonna
23 Lakeville North
-This has become one of the less clear sections to seed. The main question is whether North’s tie with South is enough to boost the Panthers to a higher seed, but history suggests most of the southern coaches in this section won’t be keen to reward them despite a respectable record against a more difficult schedule than Hastings and (especially) Owatonna. And, frankly, they may like to see a North-South matchup in the semis. Owatonna also still has a game with a Rochester Mayo team that has a pretty solid record and gave them a competitive game the first time, so the Spartans could yet disrupt this and make a case for a top four spot.

2AA
3 Eden Prairie
11 Prior Lake
13 Minnetonka
16 Holy Family
22 Shakopee
-This one had seemed settled until Shakopee knocked off Prior Lake on Saturday. The loss effectively costs the Lakers any shot at the top seed, and may even relegate them to #3 depending on how this final week goes. The other question is whether that’s enough for Shakopee to climb ahead of Holy Family and Chaska in the seeding. Holy Family has no bad results, though, while Shakopee has a few sketchy ties, so I’m going to leave the Fire at #4 and give them a first round matchup with the Sabers.

3AA
7 St. Thomas Academy
12 Rosemount
Eastview
Burnsville
-The only drama in this thin section has come in sorting a bunch of teams with very few wins beyond the top two. Eastview, with a recent win over Burnsville and a comparable record in the same conference, has probably done enough now to sneak into the 3-seed. Jefferson could also have a case for a top four seed with a strong enough finish since they’re in the same neighborhood wins-wise, but I don’t really buy that since their conference is weaker.

4AA
2 Hill-Murray
19 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
Mounds View
-A decisive win over Stillwater seals up the 2-seed for White Bear, and despite the Ponies’ struggles down the stretch, they seem safe for #3. Mounds View’s recent win over East Ridge is probably enough to get the Mustangs the 4-seed. It’s a bit of a cluster beyond that, but since most of those teams are in a Suburban East closed loop, I’d probably lean on conference standings to sort out the rest.

5AA
1 Maple Grove
17 Centennial
Blaine
24 Totino-Grace
-We can probably put this one in ink after Centennial rolled over Blaine twice in the past week. Totino is probably better than Blaine, but they did lose the head-to-head, so will likely manage the 3-seed. That said, I don’t see that affecting the results here much.

6AA
8 Cretin-Derham Hall
9 Wayzata
10 Edina
15 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
25 St. Louis Park
-And then there’s this section, though I think we are past most of the drama now. Should they beat Benilde this week, Wayzata will have a legitimate case for the top seed given their much tougher schedule, but since they have two losses in section play (including a poor one to Blake), a one-loss Cretin team will probably take the top spot. I don’t think a Wayzata loss to Benilde should change this order, since Benilde has otherwise not done enough against good competition to rise any further. St. Louis Park’s Covid shutdown may have actually helped their positioning, though Blake will have a case also.

7AA
4 Grand Rapids
Duluth East
--
6 Andover
Forest Lake
-This one has been settled for a while. If anything, there has been some tightening; East is not a sure bet against Cloquet in the quarters, but has also shown it can hang around with Rapids, and I would not be surprised to see Elk River knock off Forest Lake. The one team that is sitting pretty is Andover, but again, it’s hard to say too much with these schedules.

8AA
14 Roseau
20 Rogers
18 Moorhead
St. Michael-Albertville
-Roseau probably now has the strongest argument for the top seed after beating Moorhead in the second meeting and amassing a decent record. Rogers is nearly impossible to rank against the rest, but I slotted them at #2 since they lack Roseau’s overall resume and Moorhead has a sketchy section loss, though I wouldn’t object to the Spuds being #2. (Side note: when was the last time Roseau was one of the easier teams in the section to compare to the rest of the state?) Despite its bad record, STMA lurks as a tough out for someone in the semis.

[Immigrant Fan]

It looks like Grand Rapids' game with Roseau is moved to Monday, March 8. Also, Thursday's game against St. Cloud is showing as Cancelled on the T-hawks website (scroll down to the "Upcoming Events" section). Thank goodness, that looked like a great risk for exposure to the 'rona.

Oh yeah, thanks Karl for the great read, as always.

[GoldenBear]

Great read Karl! Stay healthy skaters...fun time of year approaching. GB

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Karl, I prefer my Pioneers in the 5 - 10 range. Bump 'em down next week.

The longer Maple Grove is undefeated & #1, the less I fear them. Those are always big burdens, and even more so when playing in a curtailed season.

[WestMetro]

One of the definite Top Ten Karl lines of the season!


“That clunking sound you hear from the southwest metro” is the Lakers falling out of the top ten after a loss to Shakopee


Well done !

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Great job as always, Karl!

One thing I've been thinking about lately: This group of Eden Prairie seniors has lost three straight state championships: 2018 Bantam AA to Osseo/Maple Grove, 2019 high school to Edina, 2020 high school to Hill-Murray. Wouldn't it be interesting to see things come full circle in the form of a Maple Grove-Eden Prairie state championship game?

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Great job as always, Karl!

One thing I've been thinking about lately: This group of Eden Prairie seniors has lost three straight state championships: 2018 Bantam AA to Osseo/Maple Grove, 2019 high school to Edina, 2020 high school to Hill-Murray. Wouldn't it be interesting to see things come full circle in the form of a Maple Grove-Eden Prairie state championship game?

No, I'd rather draw Maple Grove in the final, thank you.

[karl(east)]

It looks like Grand Rapids' game with Roseau is moved to Monday, March 8. Also, Thursday's game against St. Cloud is showing as Cancelled on the T-hawks website (scroll down to the "Upcoming Events" section). Thank goodness, that looked like a great risk for exposure to the 'rona.

Oh yeah, thanks Karl for the great read, as always.

Thing #57392529572 I'm looking forward to in a post-Covid world: not having to comb through everyone's schedule week after week in search of reschedulings or cancellations. Thanks for the corrections, updates made!

[goldy313]

My 1AA....
South
North
Hastings
Owatonna
Northfield
Mayo
Farmington
Century
John Marshall

The scary thing is what is happening in Carver County. If that happens in Dakota County half the section is gone.

All games will played at the high seed as of today....that could change of course.....I think South plays on an Olympic rink.....a huge advantage.

[Eagles93]

All games will played at the high seed as of today....that could change of course.....I think South plays on an Olympic rink.....a huge advantage.

Haase (South) is regulation/NHL. Ames (North) is Olympic-size.

[stpaul]

Your gut was correct. HM dominated STA tonight 7-3.

[Cookster]

It is very early, but if the top 5 teams all make it to state (and that is a big if), what a tourney we might have. I don't really know how to rank them:

LVS -- 1 tie on the year
HM, -- Just dominating and avenges its only loss
EP -- Undefeated, untied with a healthy Jackson Blake
MG -- 1 Blemish, but solid
GR -- 1 loss, and avenged its only loss

Add in a 6AA team, a St Thomas team, and a 8AA team and no back to back to back games, and it should be fun!

[mnmouth]

It is very early, but if the top 5 teams all make it to state (and that is a big if), what a tourney we might have. I don't really know how to rank them:

LVS -- 1 tie on the year
HM, -- Just dominating and avenges its only loss
EP -- Undefeated, untied with a healthy Jackson Blake
MG -- 1 Blemish, but solid
GR -- 1 loss, and avenged its only loss

Add in a 6AA team, a St Thomas team, and a 8AA team and no back to back to back games, and it should be fun!

The Pioneers have avenged one loss, but has not yet had the opportunity to avenge their first loss of the season vs Grand Rapids

[Sparlimb]

It is very early, but if the top 5 teams all make it to state (and that is a big if), what a tourney we might have. I don't really know how to rank them:

LVS -- 1 tie on the year
HM, -- Just dominating and avenges its only loss
EP -- Undefeated, untied with a healthy Jackson Blake
MG -- 1 Blemish, but solid
GR -- 1 loss, and avenged its only loss

Add in a 6AA team, a St Thomas team, and a 8AA team and no back to back to back games, and it should be fun!

The Pioneers have avenged one loss, but has not yet had the opportunity to avenge their first loss of the season vs Grand Rapids

Sounds like a great state championship game.

[mnmouth]

It is very early, but if the top 5 teams all make it to state (and that is a big if), what a tourney we might have. I don't really know how to rank them:

LVS -- 1 tie on the year
HM, -- Just dominating and avenges its only loss
EP -- Undefeated, untied with a healthy Jackson Blake
MG -- 1 Blemish, but solid
GR -- 1 loss, and avenged its only loss

Add in a 6AA team, a St Thomas team, and a 8AA team and no back to back to back games, and it should be fun!

The Pioneers have avenged one loss, but has not yet had the opportunity to avenge their first loss of the season vs Grand Rapids

Sounds like a great state championship game.

Agreed! Give Hill Murray a chance to avenge the 1980 final. Not alot of folks on this thread remember that one.

[GoldenBear]

I do. I was at the game. I liked Hill Murray because it was a catholic school that sounded like Hail Mary. GB

[O-townClown]

It is very early, but if the top 5 teams all make it to state (and that is a big if), what a tourney we might have. I don't really know how to rank them:

LVS -- 1 tie on the year
HM, -- Just dominating and avenges its only loss
EP -- Undefeated, untied with a healthy Jackson Blake
MG -- 1 Blemish, but solid
GR -- 1 loss, and avenged its only loss

Add in a 6AA team, a St Thomas team, and a 8AA team and no back to back to back games, and it should be fun!

Looks good to me!

Cretin will be interesting if they win out because they'll have a very gaudy record. Probably seeded. As you said, big if to all this!

[BodyShots]

I think MG loss is just what the Dr. ordered. Now they realize they aren't invincible and can get back to work preparing for Sections and State.

[O-townClown]

I think MG loss is just what the Dr. ordered. Now they realize they aren't invincible and can get back to work preparing for Sections and State.

So you subscribe to the Good Loss theory.

[BodyShots]

I think MG loss is just what the Dr. ordered. Now they realize they aren't invincible and can get back to work preparing for Sections and State.

So you subscribe to the Good Loss theory.

Damn right. Especially when you are kicking everybody's a$$ all season long!

[InThePipes]

I think MG loss is just what the Dr. ordered. Now they realize they aren't invincible and can get back to work preparing for Sections and State.

So you subscribe to the Good Loss theory.

Damn right. Especially when you are kicking everybody's a$$ all season long!

Probably some level of truth to this, at least someone could frame it that way if they chose to

[Sparlimb]

I think MG loss is just what the Dr. ordered. Now they realize they aren't invincible and can get back to work preparing for Sections and State.

So you subscribe to the Good Loss theory.

Damn right. Especially when you are kicking everybody's a$$ all season long!

I actually thought about that last night as I saw the first period of the HM v STA game. Hill had just come off playing conference opponents they were destroying. It took them most of the period to figure out that every delicate back hand pass in the offensive zone wasn't going for a pretty goal. Of course they knew that, but getting back to competition that can skate with you take a little bit. I think that's what happened to MG. It makes me question that whole conference. I don't think Andover can beat Grand Rapids and Rogers isn't winning anything. Those are my predictions.

Assuming these 5 make it, and that is a big assumption. I'd seed like this as of today.

#1 LVS -- 1 tie on the year
#2 MG -- 1 Blemish, but solid
#3 GR -- 1 loss, and avenged its only loss
#4 HM -- Just dominating and avenges its only loss
#5 EP -- Undefeated, untied with a healthy Jackson Blake

Grand Rapids beat Hill, you can't change that fact. And their one loss is less than Hill's 2.

[InThePipes]

So you subscribe to the Good Loss theory.

Damn right. Especially when you are kicking everybody's a$$ all season long!

I actually thought about that last night as I saw the first period of the HM v STA game. Hill had just come off playing conference opponents they were destroying. It took them most of the period to figure out that every delicate back hand pass in the offensive zone wasn't going for a pretty goal. Of course they knew that, but getting back to competition that can skate with you take a little bit. I think that's what happened to MG. It makes me question that whole conference. I don't think Andover can beat Grand Rapids and Rogers isn't winning anything. Those are my predictions.

Assuming these 5 make it, and that is a big assumption. I'd seed like this as of today.

#1 LVS -- 1 tie on the year
#2 MG -- 1 Blemish, but solid
#3 GR -- 1 loss, and avenged its only loss
#4 HM -- Just dominating and avenges its only loss
#5 EP -- Undefeated, untied with a healthy Jackson Blake

Grand Rapids beat Hill, you can't change that fact. And their one loss is less than Hill's 2.

Seems even more wide open this year than normal, could see any of these 5 teams winning and there are a couple of others that are probably also capable.

[grindiangrad-80]

This GR group of players has been rolling along pretty quietly for awhile now. Going back to late January of last season they are 21-2 in their last 23 games. A loss to Hermantown earlier this season isn't a huge concern. The other loss to Elk River in the semi final last year is one they will have to overcome this year though. Lots of good games coming up shortly.