AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by karl(east) » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:23 am

Well, we’ve (almost, pending some Monday games) made it through the regular season. It hasn’t always been pretty, but here we are, ready for the three-week push to the finish line. As usual, I’ll use my pre-sections format: a top 25 listed, then comments in a section-by-section format, which I’ll fill in as we get official section seedings.

1. Hill-Murray
2. Lakeville South
3. Maple Grove
4. Eden Prairie
5. Grand Rapids
6. Cretin-Derham Hall
7. Andover
8. Wayzata
9. St. Thomas Academy
10. Edina
11. Prior Lake
12. Minnetonka
13. Rosemount
14. Benilde-St. Margaret’s
15. Roseau
16. Moorhead
17. Holy Family
18. White Bear Lake
19. Lakeville North
20. Centennial
21. Blake
22. St. Louis Park
23. Shakopee
24. Rogers
25. Hastings

1AA

Lakeville South (15-0-2, #2)
-The Cougars boosted their stock with a final week win over Maple Grove, a contest that showed off the firepower of their top line of Cade Ahrenholz, Cam Boche, and Tanner Luedtke. It is second only to Eden Prairie’s top group, and this team probably has more reliable secondary scoring than the Eagles do. In both the Crimson game and the tie with Prior Lake later in the week, they were on their heels for stretches of the third period, which bears watching; if they can’t keep the pace up, they could be in trouble. But the talent is there, and they could join their Lakeville brethren in giving us the state’s last two undefeated seasons.

Lakeville North (10-6-2, #19)
-The Panthers quietly had a pretty strong finish to the season, and with a tie against Lakeville South to their credit, they’ve proven they can give the top seed in the section fits. With Hastings hitting some bumps down the stretch, I’m more convinced than ever that they’ll be the Cougars’ toughest competition in the section.

Hastings (12-6, #25)
-The Raiders didn’t close on a terribly convincing note, as they got whacked by Blake and needed overtime to edge past Bloomington Jefferson. If enough goes right they could stick around and play for a section championship again, but the onus is on them to show they belong.

2AA

1. Eden Prairie (15-1-2, #4)
-I struggled over whether to give this team the Hill-Murray treatment, but ended up punting. No team can match their top unit, and they are undefeated with a healthy Jackson Blake; all of their blemishes came amid a challenging conference, and two against a team that isn’t in their section and faces a tough road to State. More often than not, their depth players have been doing enough to get by. But do they have what it takes to finally bust through and win the big prize again?

2. Prior Lake (14-2-2, #11)
-The Lakers rebounded from their Shakopee loss to close on a strong note with a tie against Lakeville South. Their top line may not be Eden Prairie’s and their depth may not be Maple Grove’s and their defense may not be Hill’s, but it’s hard to pin down any obvious areas of weakness, either. If they’re prepared for the speed of some battle-tested Lake teams, they’ll have a shot.

3. Minnetonka (10-6-2, #12)
-The Skippers lost their third contest with Edina, which costs them a chance at a top ten spot heading into sections. The recent Eden Prairie tie shows how high their ceiling can be, but the consistency hasn’t quite been there, and they need to go through a tough Prior Lake team to get a rematch with the Eagles.

4. Holy Family (10-4-1, #17)
-Had a chance to climb into the top 15, but didn’t do much against Benilde and stay on the outside looking in. They’ve had a respectable season, but for all their efforts are left with a potentially tough quarterfinal and an Eden Prairie team that manhandled them earlier this season if they win that one.

5. Chaska

6. Shakopee (9-5-3, #23)
-A loss to Burnsville cools some of the Saber hype, but they’ve done enough to get become relevant in 2AA.

7. Chanhassen
8. New Prague

3AA

St. Thomas Academy (10-4-3, #9)
-The Cadets have lost three straight, albeit all against elite opposition. They have one of the state’s most fun players to watch in Jackson Hallum, plus some good forward talent around him, but can they withstand the quality attacks of other teams? There should be enough here to get by a solid Rosemount team, but an upset wouldn’t be a total shock, either.

Rosemount (14-3-1, #13)
-Like St. Thomas, they have an elite forward (Luke Levandowski); his supporting cast isn’t quite the level of Hallum’s, but this has looked like a scrappy group capable of going on a run if they can handle a more battle-tested opponent. This section is so weak beyond these top two that the section final feels preordained.

4AA

1. Hill-Murray (15-2, #1)
-This is one of the bolder stances I’ve ever taken in the rankings. But it’s not just that they’re winning, it’s how they’re winning: the Pioneers’ smothering defense and convincing performances over other solid teams has them pulling clear of the field. They may not deserve the top seed at State, if they get there (which looks very likely); they do have those two losses, including one to another potentially very strong entrant. But right now, they are playing like the best team in the state by a comfortable margin.

2. White Bear Lake (14-3-1, #18)
-The Bears are clearly the best of the rest in this section, but no Lleyton Roed makes a hard road even harder, and with the (potential) exception of Cretin, which did not go well, they have faced no one of Hill-Murray’s caliber this season. One should never count the Bears totally out against Hill, but rarely has the gap been so large.

5AA

1. Maple Grove (17-1, #3)
-Mortal after all: the Crimson’s loss to Lakeville South complicates quite a few things, and raises the question of how well they can hold up against the assault of a great offense. They still have boatloads of talent and could easily win the whole thing, but they need to avoid sloppiness and have stars like Kukkonen and Nelson keep pace with other teams’ stars. On paper, any of these challenges will wait until State.

2. Centennial (13-4-1, #20)
-A listless loss to Andover in the regular season’s final game doesn’t bode well for the Cougars heading into sections. They seem like a clear section finalist, but will need to show a lot more to have a chance against Maple Grove.

3. Totino-Grace
-The Eagles have plodded along this season, hovering along the edge of the rankings but never really making a move. They’ll need an extra boost to have a chance against Centennial and break up what otherwise looks like a very predictable section.

6AA

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (17-1, #6)
-Despite a slight wobble against East Ridge, the Raiders enter the playoffs on an 11-game tear in which they’ve only faced only a couple mild tests, including this Raptor game and when White Bear Lake mounted a comeback after falling in a huge hole. Just how much of this is them being good versus the Suburban East being bad? We’ll finally get the answer to the question that has loomed over this team since day one.

2. Wayzata (10-5-2, #8)
-The Trojans did what they needed to do in the final week of the season, finishing off a spirited challenge from Benilde and skating to a tie with a strong Grand Rapids team. They bring their usual toughness and have a bit more scoring punch than many Trojan squads; if they can maintain their discipline, it wouldn’t be too hard to see them making their way back to St. Paul.

3. Edina (9-7-2, #10)
-A tie against Eden Prairie and a tenacious comeback against Minnetonka have the Hornets looking dangerous heading into sections. They’ve been building all season long, setting up a strong defense, and they’re scoring just enough to be dangerous. The road from here is not an easy one, as they’re looking at a first round date with a team that tied them earlier this season, but the potential is there to reclaim the 6AA title.

4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-5, #14)
-The Red Knights showed modest signs of improvement after a bad run of several weeks, as they gave Wayzata a good fight and shut out a Holy Family team that was right behind them in last week’s rankings. Have they turned a corner, or are they still just a step behind the good teams? A first-round date with Blake won’t be easy, though if they win that, getting a crack at a Cretin team who hasn’t played much of anyone isn’t so terrible a semifinal matchup in this section.

5. Blake (9-6-1, #21)
-The Bears have taken their lumps this season, but between Aksel Reid in goal and a handful of quality players, they may not be an easy out in sections. We’ll see what the defending 6AA champs can muster against Benilde.

6. St. Louis Park (9-4-1, #22)
-The Orioles head into the playoffs after a two-week Covid layoff, which can’t be great for chemistry, but they’ve managed to move up in the rankings in that time in spite of that as other teams have lost. They gave Edina a good test the first time around; can they do it again?

7. Holy Angels
8. Hopkins

7AA

N1. Grand Rapids (13-1-1, #5)
-The Thunderhawks’ Saturday tie with Wayzata isn’t a major blow, but does settle them back into a ranking that seems more appropriate. No player may be more valuable to his team than Jack Peart, and they have enough good forwards in the stable to be competitive with any team, but they don’t quite have the depth of front-end talent of the four teams ahead of them. They should sail into the 7AA final, but it’s hard to know what to expect after that.

N2. Cloquet
N3. Duluth Marshall
C-19. Duluth East

S1. Andover (15-2-1, #7)
-A tie with Champlin was the first red flag all season for the Huskies, though they rebounded with a slaughter of decent Centennial. This remains one of the harder teams to track, as they’re clearly behind Maple Grove but ahead of everyone else they’ve played. We’ll get a more definitive answer on their status over the next week and a half.

S2. Forest Lake
S3. Elk River
S4. Anoka

8AA

1. Roseau (12-6, #15)
-The Rams didn’t close out the season on a particularly high note, as they struggled to keep pace with Grand Rapids and lost a second of three games against East Grand Forks. The recent Moorhead win still makes them the prohibitive favorite in this section, but nothing will come easy after the first round. The Rams have never had a seven-year drought between Tourney appearances. Can they keep that trend alive?

2. Moorhead (10-7-1, #16)
-The Spuds plugged along against the 8AA Lake teams in the final week of the regular season, avenging an earlier loss to STMA to nab the 2-seed but letting Buffalo hang around a bit longer than they should have. This young squad has its vulnerabilities, but they also have the highest ceiling of anyone in this section, and could certainly defend their 8AA crown.

3. St. Michael-Albertville (6-11)
-The record is awful, but the schedule was brutal, and an upset isn’t totally out of the question.

4. Rogers (13-5, #24)
-A loss to Anoka takes a lot of the air out of the Royal balloon. It’s been a strong regular season, but they need to prove they can do something against a quality opponent.

5. St. Cloud
6. Brainerd
7. Bemidji
8. Buffalo

Playoff hockey, here we go. Let’s hope for the best and keep everyone Covid-free.

Sparlimb
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by Sparlimb » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:41 am

'Karl, let me be the first to say you are brilliant.

Just being silly. Thanks again for the Sunday read all season long.

SEC Scotty
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by SEC Scotty » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:58 am

Thanks Karl for the Sunday morning posts. Breakfast, Coffee, and Karl's rankings.

HSLinemaker
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by HSLinemaker » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:00 am

Karl, Thanks for all of the hard work and effort you put into this each week. I'm going to be jonesing for a long time now. Already thinking about next year. Have a great summer.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:18 am

I asked Karl to bump my Pioneers down, not up! It looks like a nice tournament field is shaping up, similar to last year. I'm trying to decide if I should slip down to McGovern's before I tune in at home.

And I will state right here & now, any undefeated champion this season will come with a huge asterisk.

Was the Pioneers - Blake contest cancelled due to covid on Blake's part?
Hockey Is For Everyone

elliott70
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by elliott70 » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:23 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:18 am
I asked Karl to bump my Pioneers down, not up! It looks like a nice tournament field is shaping up, similar to last year. I'm trying to decide if I should slip down to McGovern's before I tune in at home.

And I will state right here & now, any undefeated champion this season will come with a huge asterisk.

Was the Pioneers - Blake contest cancelled due to covid on Blake's part?
THAT WOULD BE FUN.

karl(east)
Posts: 6462
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 9:03 pm
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by karl(east) » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:26 am

Sparlimb wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:41 am
'Karl, let me be the first to say you are brilliant.

Just being silly. Thanks again for the Sunday read all season long.
:lol: We'll see how brilliant I am in a few weeks!

2AA seeds have been added, and I'll continue to add seeds as they come out and as time allows.

ESPG, I could use a little McGoverns in my life...

Sparlimb
Posts: 2491
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by Sparlimb » Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:28 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:18 am
I asked Karl to bump my Pioneers down, not up! It looks like a nice tournament field is shaping up, similar to last year. I'm trying to decide if I should slip down to McGovern's before I tune in at home.

And I will state right here & now, any undefeated champion this season will come with a huge asterisk.

Was the Pioneers - Blake contest cancelled due to covid on Blake's part?
No, I don't think so. Hill's girls basketball game was cancelled too. Although the girl's hockey team did play. It appears it was cancelled just to not take any chances...

O-townClown
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by O-townClown » Sun Mar 14, 2021 11:46 am

I concur with H-M. Have been so impressed with them all year. Installed them as my favorite earlier this week.
Be kind. Rewind.

hockeyhockeyhockey
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by hockeyhockeyhockey » Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:33 pm

disagree a touch

maple grove #1
grand rapids #2 (beat hill legit head to head and they have the star player in the tourny)
Hill M
lakeville south

farmtown55
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by farmtown55 » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:04 pm

hockeyhockeyhockey wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 2:33 pm
disagree a touch

maple grove #1
grand rapids #2 (beat hill legit head to head and they have the star player in the tourny)
Hill M
lakeville south
So you have MG #1 and GR #2 because they beat HM (#3) head to head, but you have LVS #4 who is undefeated and beat your #1 MG??????

O-townClown
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by O-townClown » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:10 pm

farmtown55 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:04 pm
So you have MG #1 and GR #2 because they beat HM (#3) head to head, but you have LVS #4 who is undefeated and beat your #1 MG??????
Love it. Always gotta laugh when people start down the road of "but they beat so-and-so" because you can play out a few iterations and next thing you know are making a case that Slippery Rock is the national champion.

I'm okay with any ordering people want at the top. I only see 5 teams that I think can go on the six-game playoff run to win the state tournament. In two weeks nobody's ranking will matter.
Be kind. Rewind.

farmtown55
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Re: AA Rankings for 3/14/21 and Section Preview

Post by farmtown55 » Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:29 am

O-townClown wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:10 pm
farmtown55 wrote:
Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:04 pm
So you have MG #1 and GR #2 because they beat HM (#3) head to head, but you have LVS #4 who is undefeated and beat your #1 MG??????
Love it. Always gotta laugh when people start down the road of "but they beat so-and-so" because you can play out a few iterations and next thing you know are making a case that Slippery Rock is the national champion.
I agree. My point was the logic for the order was is flawed.
I'm okay with any ordering people want at the top. I only see 5 teams that I think can go on the six-game playoff run to win the state tournament. In two weeks nobody's ranking will matter.

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