Computer Rankings by Section : Mar 16, 2021 MN Boys

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LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Computer Rankings by Section : Mar 16, 2021 MN Boys

Post by LSQRANK » Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:51 am

After WEDs and THUR games I'll be able to remove the IRONDALE=OSSEO constraint,, CDH should beat Hopkins by ~7 goals if the constraint was reasonable.

Code: Select all

DATE:  MON MAR 15 2021

Constraint:  IRONDALE = OSSEO



COMBINED    STD_DEV ~ 1.5
STATE       RATING                                                                   HUMAN
RK          SCORE                             TEAM          S CLS    GP   WW-LL-TT   SEED
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4   MN HS   997.2127                LakevilleSouth  MSHSL   1 AA     17  (15- 0- 2)   1
20  MN HS   994.2609                LakevilleNorth  MSHSL   1 AA     18  (10- 6- 2)   2
41  MN HS   991.9992                      Hastings  MSHSL   1 AA     18  (12- 6- 0)   4
57  MN HS   990.9011                      Owatonna  MSHSL   1 AA     17  (12- 4- 1)   3
68  MN HS   990.1198                    Northfield  MSHSL   1 AA     18  (12- 5- 1)   5
70  MN HS   990.0010                    Farmington  MSHSL   1 AA     17  ( 3-13- 1)   6
79  MN HS   988.9898                 RochesterMayo  MSHSL   1 AA     17  (12- 4- 1)   X COVID?
102 MN HS   987.0784              RochesterCentury  MSHSL   1 AA     18  ( 5-13- 0)   7
126 MN HS   984.1277         RochesterJohnMarshall  MSHSL   1 AA     13  ( 1-12- 0)   8

3   MN HS   997.5966                   EdenPrairie  MSHSL   2 AA     18  (15- 1- 2)   1
10  MN HS   995.8957                     PriorLake  MSHSL   2 AA     17  (13- 2- 2)   2
13  MN HS   995.3721                    Minnetonka  MSHSL   2 AA     18  (11- 5- 2)   3
28  MN HS   993.2788                    HolyFamily  MSHSL   2 AA     15  (10- 4- 1)   4
32  MN HS   992.5953                        Chaska  MSHSL   2 AA     18  (10- 8- 0)   5
42  MN HS   991.9654                      Shakopee  MSHSL   2 AA     17  ( 9- 5- 3)   6
74  MN HS   989.7729                    Chanhassen  MSHSL   2 AA     18  ( 8-10- 0)   7
97  MN HS   987.2838                     NewPrague  MSHSL   2 AA     18  ( 3-15- 0)   8

15  MN HS   995.1880              St.ThomasAcademy  MSHSL   3 AA     18  (11- 4- 3)   1
16  MN HS   994.9778                     Rosemount  MSHSL   3 AA     18  (14- 3- 1)   2
35  MN HS   992.1278                    Burnsville  MSHSL   3 AA     18  ( 8-10- 0)   3
51  MN HS   991.0983            ParkofCottageGrove  MSHSL   3 AA     18  ( 7-11- 0)   5
62  MN HS   990.7510                      Eastview  MSHSL   3 AA     18  ( 5-13- 0)   6
63  MN HS   990.5002          BloomingtonJefferson  MSHSL   3 AA     17  ( 8- 9- 0)   4
76  MN HS   989.5366                   AppleValley  MSHSL   3 AA     16  ( 2-13- 1)   X COVID?
84  MN HS   988.5489                         Eagan  MSHSL   3 AA     15  ( 1-14- 0)   7

6   MN HS   996.4516                   Hill-Murray  MSHSL   4 AA     17  (15- 2- 0)   1
22  MN HS   994.1983                 WhiteBearLake  MSHSL   4 AA     18  (14- 3- 1)   2
31  MN HS   992.6983                    Stillwater  MSHSL   4 AA     18  (11- 6- 1)   4
37  MN HS   992.0983                    MoundsView  MSHSL   4 AA     18  ( 9- 8- 1)   3
45  MN HS   991.8983                     Roseville  MSHSL   4 AA     18  ( 7-11- 0)   6
46  MN HS   991.7983                     EastRidge  MSHSL   4 AA     18  ( 7-11- 0)   5
71  MN HS   989.9983                      Woodbury  MSHSL   4 AA     18  ( 4-12- 2)   7
85  MN HS   988.4483                      Irondale  MSHSL   4 AA     19  ( 0-17- 2)   8
123 MN HS   984.5394              MinnehahaAcademy  MSHSL   4 AA     18  ( 1-16- 1)   9

1   MN HS  1000.0000                    MapleGrove  MSHSL   5 AA     18  (17- 1- 0)   1
9   MN HS   996.1422                    Centennial  MSHSL   5 AA     18  (13- 4- 1)   2
18  MN HS   994.4879                  Totino-Grace  MSHSL   5 AA     17  ( 9- 7- 1)   4
30  MN HS   993.0239                        Blaine  MSHSL   5 AA     18  ( 9- 9- 0)   3
34  MN HS   992.1922                  ChamplinPark  MSHSL   5 AA     18  ( 7-10- 1)   6
86  MN HS   988.4483                         Osseo  MSHSL   5 AA     19  ( 6-11- 2)   7
91  MN HS   988.0197                SpringLakePark  MSHSL   5 AA     18  ( 6-12- 0)   9 eliminated by play-in
124 MN HS   984.3702                    CoonRapids  MSHSL   5 AA     15  ( 0-14- 1)   8

7   MN HS   996.2483             Cretin-DerhamHall  MSHSL   6 AA     18  (17- 1- 0)   1
12  MN HS   995.7392                         Edina  MSHSL   6 AA     18  ( 9- 7- 2)   3
14  MN HS   995.2972                       Wayzata  MSHSL   6 AA     17  (10- 5- 2)   2
17  MN HS   994.9455         Benilde-St.Margaret's  MSHSL   6 AA     18  (13- 5- 0)   4
23  MN HS   993.9329                         Blake  MSHSL   6 AA     17  (10- 6- 1)   5
44  MN HS   991.9400                  St.LouisPark  MSHSL   6 AA     14  ( 9- 4- 1)   6
48  MN HS   991.5590                    HolyAngels  MSHSL   6 AA     18  (12- 6- 0)   7
80  MN HS   988.7670                       Hopkins  MSHSL   6 AA     17  ( 7-10- 0)   8

5   MN HS   997.1422                       Andover  MSHSL   7 AA     18  (15- 2- 1)   2
11  MN HS   995.8091                   GrandRapids  MSHSL   7 AA     16  (14- 1- 1)   1
26  MN HS   993.5922            ElkRiver/Zimmerman  MSHSL   7 AA     18  ( 7-11- 0)   5
33  MN HS   992.4983                    ForestLake  MSHSL   7 AA     18  (10- 6- 2)   3
38  MN HS   992.0714                    DuluthEast  MSHSL   7 AA     16  ( 6- 8- 2)   x COVID-19
52  MN HS   991.0510          Cloquet-Esko-Carlton  MSHSL   7 AA     18  (10- 7- 1)   4
78  MN HS   989.1226                         Anoka  MSHSL   7 AA     18  ( 2-14- 2)   6
109 MN HS   986.2724                DuluthMarshall  MSHSL   7 AA     17  ( 6- 8- 3)   7

19  MN HS   994.4326                        Roseau  MSHSL   8 AA     18  (12- 6- 0)   1
24  MN HS   993.8687                        Rogers  MSHSL   8 AA     18  (13- 5- 0)   4
25  MN HS   993.8545                      Moorhead  MSHSL   8 AA     18  (10- 7- 1)   2
39  MN HS   992.0467                      St.Cloud  MSHSL   8 AA     14  ( 9- 4- 1)   5
43  MN HS   991.9639                          STMA  MSHSL   8 AA     17  ( 5-12- 0)   3
49  MN HS   991.3022                       Buffalo  MSHSL   8 AA     18  ( 4-14- 0)   8
53  MN HS   991.0217                       Bemidji  MSHSL   8 AA     18  ( 8-10- 0)   7
65  MN HS   990.3844                      Brainerd  MSHSL   8 AA     18  ( 6-11- 1)   6

59  MN HS   990.8020                   DodgeCounty  MSHSL   1  A     18  (14- 3- 1)   1
61  MN HS   990.7846            MankatoEast/Loyola  MSHSL   1  A     18  (13- 4- 1)   2
88  MN HS   988.1966                   MankatoWest  MSHSL   1  A     17  (11- 4- 2)   3
89  MN HS   988.0583                     Faribault  MSHSL   1  A     17  ( 9- 5- 3)   4
105 MN HS   986.7992                     AlbertLea  MSHSL   1  A     17  ( 8- 9- 0)   5
118 MN HS   985.5073              RochesterLourdes  MSHSL   1  A     16  (10- 5- 1)   6
119 MN HS   985.3519                        Winona  MSHSL   1  A     18  ( 6-11- 1)   9
128 MN HS   983.8539                        Waseca  MSHSL   1  A     18  (10- 8- 0)   8
130 MN HS   983.6431                MinnesotaRiver  MSHSL   1  A     13  ( 9- 4- 0)   7
144 MN HS   979.8284              LaCrescent-Hokah  MSHSL   1  A     17  ( 4-13- 0)   10
147 MN HS   977.4665                        Austin  MSHSL   1  A     15  ( 0-15- 0)   11

40  MN HS   992.0442                        Delano  MSHSL   2  A     18  (11- 6- 1)   2
47  MN HS   991.6457                         Breck  MSHSL   2  A     18  (13- 5- 0)   1
58  MN HS   990.8531              Armstrong/Cooper  MSHSL   2  A     18  ( 7-11- 0)   7
60  MN HS   990.7949             ProvidenceAcademy  MSHSL   2  A     13  ( 9- 4- 0)   5
64  MN HS   990.4441                   Minneapolis  MSHSL   2  A     11  ( 7- 4- 0)   4
66  MN HS   990.1545  SouthwestChristian/Richfield  MSHSL   2  A     16  (11- 5- 0)   3
67  MN HS   990.1219                         Orono  MSHSL   2  A     17  (10- 7- 0)   6
75  MN HS   989.5405                 MoundWestonka  MSHSL   2  A     16  ( 6- 8- 2)   8
115 MN HS   985.6558                       Waconia  MSHSL   2  A     16  ( 3-13- 0)   X COVID?
116 MN HS   985.6462            BloomingtonKennedy  MSHSL   2  A     17  ( 3-14- 0)   9

77  MN HS   989.2682                    Hutchinson  MSHSL   3  A     18  (10- 6- 2)   1
92  MN HS   988.0014      Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato  MSHSL   3  A     17  ( 7- 8- 2)   2
98  MN HS   987.2487                        NewUlm  MSHSL   3  A     18  (15- 3- 0)   3
133 MN HS   983.2881                        Windom  MSHSL   3  A     18  (12- 6- 0)   4
135 MN HS   982.8617                       Willmar  MSHSL   3  A     18  ( 2-16- 0)   5
139 MN HS   981.6471                 RedwoodValley  MSHSL   3  A     18  ( 8-10- 0)   6
140 MN HS   981.5371                       Luverne  MSHSL   3  A     18  ( 7-11- 0)   7
141 MN HS   981.2160                      Marshall  MSHSL   3  A     18  ( 5-13- 0)   8
143 MN HS   980.4738                   Worthington  MSHSL   3  A     18  ( 3-15- 0)   9
148 MN HS   976.7946                      Fairmont  MSHSL   3  A     17  ( 0-17- 0)   10

2   MN HS   998.5296                 GentryAcademy  MSHSL   4  A     13  (13- 0- 0)   1
27  MN HS   993.5210                     Mahtomedi  MSHSL   4  A     18  (10- 7- 1)   2
54  MN HS   991.0128                        Tartan  MSHSL   4  A     17  ( 9- 7- 1)   3
69  MN HS   990.0729                St.PaulJohnson  MSHSL   4  A     16  ( 7- 9- 0)   4
81  MN HS   988.7041                        Simley  MSHSL   4  A     17  ( 7- 8- 2)   X  COVID?
100 MN HS   987.2117                St.PaulAcademy  MSHSL   4  A     15  ( 3-12- 0)   7
111 MN HS   986.1753                  SouthSt.Paul  MSHSL   4  A     18  ( 4-14- 0)   6
117 MN HS   985.6135           St.PaulHighlandPark  MSHSL   4  A     13  ( 4- 9- 0)   5
121 MN HS   985.1088                   HenrySibley  MSHSL   4  A     18  ( 3-15- 0)   9
129 MN HS   983.8178                       RedWing  MSHSL   4  A     17  ( 4-12- 1)   8

82  MN HS   988.5904                 NorthernLakes  MSHSL   5  A     18  (15- 3- 0)   2
90  MN HS   988.0259                    Monticello  MSHSL   5  A     17  (10- 6- 1)   1
93  MN HS   987.6194                  ChisagoLakes  MSHSL   5  A     18  (11- 6- 1)   4
99  MN HS   987.2237              Cambridge-Isanti  MSHSL   5  A     18  (11- 6- 1)   3
103 MN HS   986.9833                    St.Francis  MSHSL   5  A     18  ( 9- 9- 0)   5
108 MN HS   986.4281               SaukRapids-Rice  MSHSL   5  A     15  ( 6- 7- 2)   7
110 MN HS   986.2298                   NorthBranch  MSHSL   5  A     16  ( 6- 9- 1)   8
112 MN HS   985.9853                     Princeton  MSHSL   5  A     15  ( 5-10- 0)   10
114 MN HS   985.7940                  PineCityArea  MSHSL   5  A     18  ( 9- 9- 0)   6
120 MN HS   985.3181                   Mora/Milaca  MSHSL   5  A     14  ( 7- 7- 0)   9
125 MN HS   984.1530                Becker/BigLake  MSHSL   5  A     18  ( 3-14- 1)   11
146 MN HS   978.8754                 MooseLakeArea  MSHSL   5  A     15  ( 2-13- 0)   12

50  MN HS   991.1510                   FergusFalls  MSHSL   6  A     16  (13- 3- 0)   2
55  MN HS   990.9767            Sartell-St.Stephen  MSHSL   6  A     17  (10- 7- 0)   4
56  MN HS   990.9124                   LittleFalls  MSHSL   6  A     15  (10- 4- 1)   1
73  MN HS   989.9447                    Alexandria  MSHSL   6  A     18  ( 8- 9- 1)   3
83  MN HS   988.5803             St.CloudCathedral  MSHSL   6  A     17  ( 8- 9- 0)   5
106 MN HS   986.6321                    RiverLakes  MSHSL   6  A     13  ( 4- 7- 2)   7   Forfeit COVID?
107 MN HS   986.5352                 Morris/Benson  MSHSL   6  A     17  (13- 4- 0)   6
132 MN HS   983.6095              Wadena-DeerCreek  MSHSL   6  A     18  ( 4-13- 1)   8   Forfeit COVID?
142 MN HS   980.8587                 PrairieCentre  MSHSL   6  A     15  ( 2-12- 1)   9
145 MN HS   979.1136         Breckenridge/Wahpeton  MSHSL   6  A     14  ( 1-13- 0)   10

8   MN HS   996.1863                    Hermantown  MSHSL   7  A     17  (16- 1- 0)   1
36  MN HS   992.1180                 DuluthDenfeld  MSHSL   7  A     14  ( 8- 5- 1)   2
87  MN HS   988.3918    Virginia/MountainIron-Buhl  MSHSL   7  A     18  ( 9- 8- 1)   4
95  MN HS   987.5687              Hibbing/Chisholm  MSHSL   7  A     17  (10- 6- 1)   3
104 MN HS   986.9520               Eveleth-Gilbert  MSHSL   7  A     17  ( 8- 5- 4)   5
113 MN HS   985.8270                      Greenway  MSHSL   7  A     18  ( 7- 8- 3)   6
122 MN HS   984.9710            InternationalFalls  MSHSL   7  A     18  ( 6-11- 1)   7
127 MN HS   984.1075                       Proctor  MSHSL   7  A     18  ( 2-15- 1)   9
134 MN HS   983.2457                    NorthShore  MSHSL   7  A     17  ( 6-11- 0)   8
149 MN HS   975.4001                           Ely  MSHSL   7  A     11  ( 0-11- 0)   10 Forfeit COVID?

21  MN HS   994.2303                       Warroad  MSHSL   8  A     17  (11- 4- 2)    1
29  MN HS   993.0451                EastGrandForks  MSHSL   8  A     18  (10- 8- 0)    2
72  MN HS   989.9821               ThiefRiverFalls  MSHSL   8  A     17  ( 8- 8- 1)    3
94  MN HS   987.5724                KittsonCentral  MSHSL   8  A     16  (12- 3- 1)    4
96  MN HS   987.3415                  RedLakeFalls  MSHSL   8  A     17  (12- 5- 0)    5
101 MN HS   987.1207                  DetroitLakes  MSHSL   8  A     17  ( 9- 8- 0)    6
131 MN HS   983.6124                     Crookston  MSHSL   8  A     11  ( 2- 9- 0)    7
136 MN HS   982.3378                LakeoftheWoods  MSHSL   8  A     12  ( 3- 9- 0)    8
137 MN HS   982.2716                Bagley/Fosston  MSHSL   8  A     18  ( 7-10- 1)    9
138 MN HS   981.9156                    ParkRapids  MSHSL   8  A     17  ( 5-12- 0)    10



O-townClown
Posts: 4354
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Re: Computer Rankings by Section : Mar 16, 2021 MN Boys

Post by O-townClown » Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:08 pm

We've exchanged comments on the MyHockey ratings in comparison. The outliers there seemed to say don't take Cretin to make it very far and that Prior Lake would be a significant underdog to Minnetonka.

I understand the math used is crude by comparison, but it works.

The final takeaway for me is that undefeated Lakeville South will have a very hard time winning games if they reach the state tournament. We'll see if that's prescient.
Be kind. Rewind.

LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: Computer Rankings by Section : Mar 16, 2021 MN Boys

Post by LSQRANK » Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:30 pm

I'll run another profile tomorrow and post it. I suspect that there will be instances where teams like CDH (based on their overall season) will still be rated higher than teams that beat them (i.e. BSM 4 - 0 over CDH today). Match-ups will be a significant cause and effect in state tournament games as opposed to numerical ratings because the standard deviations are very large compared to previous years where many more non-conference games were played state-wide.

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