Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

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LSQRANK
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Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:53 pm

Code: Select all

Date: SUN MAR 21, 2021



LSQRANK          Score                           Team                    LG      GP  (WW-LL-TT)   
===============================================================================================
D1 Teams    (Top 50 MN)          (Alive in Play-offs XX)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1    MN  HS  1000.0000                    MapleGrove XX - FINAL  MSHSL   5 AA     20  (19- 1- 0) 
2    MN  HS   998.4561                 GentryAcademy XX - SEMI   MSHSL   4  A     14  (14- 0- 0) 
3    MN  HS   997.9585                   EdenPrairie XX - FINAL  MSHSL   2 AA     20  (17- 1- 2) 
4    MN  HS   996.8921                       Andover XX - FINAL  MSHSL   7 AA     20  (17- 2- 1) 
5    MN  HS   996.6680                LakevilleSouth XX - FINAL  MSHSL   1 AA     19  (17- 0- 2) 
6    MN  HS   996.6268                   Hill-Murray XX - FINAL  MSHSL   4 AA     19  (17- 2- 0) 
7    MN  HS   996.4314             Cretin-DerhamHall             MSHSL   6 AA     20  (18- 2- 0) 
8    MN  HS   996.3759                    Hermantown XX - SEMI   MSHSL   7  A     18  (17- 1- 0) 
9    MN  HS   996.2320                   GrandRapids XX - FINAL  MSHSL   7 AA     17  (15- 1- 1) 
10   MN  HS   996.0865                       Wayzata XX - FINAL  MSHSL   6 AA     19  (12- 5- 2) 

11   MN  HS   995.9439                    Centennial XX - FINAL  MSHSL   5 AA     20  (15- 4- 1) 
12   MN  HS   995.8387                         Edina             MSHSL   6 AA     20  (10- 8- 2) 
13   MN  HS   995.8385                    Minnetonka XX - FINAL  MSHSL   2 AA     19  (12- 5- 2) 
14   MN  HS   995.5470         Benilde-St.Margaret's XX - FINAL  MSHSL   6 AA     20  (15- 5- 0) 
15   MN  HS   995.5123              St.ThomasAcademy XX - FINAL  MSHSL   3 AA     19  (12- 4- 3) 
16   MN  HS   995.2487                     PriorLake             MSHSL   2 AA     19  (14- 3- 2) 
17   MN  HS   994.8280                        Roseau XX - FINAL  MSHSL   8 AA     20  (14- 6- 0) 
18   MN  HS   994.7923                       Warroad XX - SEMI   MSHSL   8  A     18  (12- 4- 2) 
19   MN  HS   994.4764                      Moorhead XX - FINAL  MSHSL   8 AA     20  (12- 7- 1) 
20   MN  HS   994.3842                  Totino-Grace             MSHSL   5 AA     19  (10- 8- 1) 

21   MN  HS   994.3148                 WhiteBearLake XX - FINAL  MSHSL   4 AA     20  (16- 3- 1) 
22   MN  HS   994.1545                         Blake             MSHSL   6 AA     18  (10- 7- 1) 
23   MN  HS   994.1203                     Rosemount XX - FINAL  MSHSL   3 AA     20  (16- 3- 1) 
24   MN  HS   993.8399                     Mahtomedi XX - SEMI   MSHSL   4  A     19  (11- 7- 1) 
25   MN  HS   993.7526                    HolyFamily             MSHSL   2 AA     17  (11- 5- 1) 
26   MN  HS   993.6610                        Rogers             MSHSL   8 AA     20  (14- 6- 0) 
27   MN  HS   993.5277                EastGrandForks XX - SEMI   MSHSL   8  A     19  (11- 8- 0) 
28   MN  HS   993.4750                LakevilleNorth XX - FINAL  MSHSL   1 AA     20  (12- 6- 2) 
29   MN  HS   993.4058            ElkRiver/Zimmerman             MSHSL   7 AA     20  ( 8-12- 0) 
30   MN  HS   993.2110                    Stillwater             MSHSL   4 AA     20  (12- 7- 1)
 
31   MN  HS   992.7980                        Chaska             MSHSL   2 AA     19  (10- 9- 0) 
32   MN  HS   992.7338                    ForestLake             MSHSL   7 AA     19  (10- 7- 2) 
33   MN  HS   992.7025                        Delano XX - FINAL  MSHSL   2  A     20  (13- 6- 1) 
34   MN  HS   992.6840                        Blaine             MSHSL   5 AA     20  (10-10- 0) 
35   MN  HS   992.6508                 DuluthDenfeld XX - SEMI   MSHSL   7  A     14  ( 8- 5- 1) 
36   MN  HS   992.5531                      St.Cloud             MSHSL   8 AA     15  ( 9- 5- 1) 
37   MN  HS   992.5428                    DuluthEast             MSHSL   7 AA     16  ( 6- 8- 2) 
38   MN  HS   992.4766                    MoundsView             MSHSL   4 AA     20  (10- 9- 1) 
39   MN  HS   992.2786                          STMA             MSHSL   8 AA     19  ( 6-13- 0) 
40   MN  HS   992.2752                  St.LouisPark             MSHSL   6 AA     15  ( 9- 5- 1) 

41   MN  HS   992.2368                      Hastings             MSHSL   1 AA     19  (12- 7- 0) 
42   MN  HS   992.1658                     Roseville             MSHSL   4 AA     19  ( 7-12- 0) 
43   MN  HS   992.0103                     EastRidge             MSHSL   4 AA     19  ( 7-12- 0) 
44   MN  HS   991.9938                         Breck XX - FINAL  MSHSL   2  A     20  (15- 5- 0) 
45   MN  HS   991.8422                  ChamplinPark             MSHSL   5 AA     19  ( 7-11- 1) 
46   MN  HS   991.8084                       Buffalo             MSHSL   8 AA     19  ( 4-15- 0) 
47   MN  HS   991.6454            Sartell-St.Stephen XX - SEMI   MSHSL   6  A     18  (11- 7- 0) 
48   MN  HS   991.6453                    HolyAngels             MSHSL   6 AA     19  (12- 7- 0) 
49   MN  HS   991.6153                       Bemidji             MSHSL   8 AA     19  ( 8-11- 0) 
50   MN  HS   991.5157          Cloquet-Esko-Carlton             MSHSL   7 AA     20  (11- 8- 1) 
===============================================================================================
D2 Teams    (Middle 49 MN)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
51   MN  HS   991.4310                    Burnsville             MSHSL   3 AA     20  ( 9-11- 0) 
52   MN  HS   991.4250            ParkofCottageGrove             MSHSL   3 AA     20  ( 8-12- 0) 
53   MN  HS   991.4032                   FergusFalls XX - SEMI   MSHSL   6  A     17  (14- 3- 0) 
54   MN  HS   991.3553                   LittleFalls XX - SEMI   MSHSL   6  A     16  (11- 4- 1) 
55   MN  HS   991.3145                        Tartan XX - SEMI   MSHSL   4  A     18  (10- 7- 1) 
56   MN  HS   991.2419                      Shakopee             MSHSL   2 AA     17  ( 9- 5- 3) 
57   MN  HS   991.0295                   DodgeCounty XX - FINAL  MSHSL   1  A     20  (16- 3- 1) 
58   MN  HS   990.9164             ProvidenceAcademy             MSHSL   2  A     14  ( 9- 5- 0) 
59   MN  HS   990.8902                      Owatonna             MSHSL   1 AA     19  (13- 5- 1) 
60   MN  HS   990.8331          BloomingtonJefferson             MSHSL   3 AA     18  ( 8-10- 0)
 
61   MN  HS   990.7543                      Brainerd             MSHSL   8 AA     19  ( 6-12- 1) 
62   MN  HS   990.7368                   Minneapolis             MSHSL   2  A     13  ( 8- 5- 0) 
63   MN  HS   990.5509                         Orono             MSHSL   2  A     19  (11- 8- 0) 
64   MN  HS   990.4700               ThiefRiverFalls XX - SEMI   MSHSL   8  A     18  ( 9- 8- 1) 
65   MN  HS   990.4646                    Alexandria XX - SEMI   MSHSL   6  A     19  ( 9- 9- 1) 
66   MN  HS   990.4604              Armstrong/Cooper             MSHSL   2  A     19  ( 7-12- 0) 
67   MN  HS   990.4438                      Woodbury             MSHSL   4 AA     19  ( 4-13- 2) 
68   MN  HS   990.3252  SouthwestChristian/Richfield             MSHSL   2  A     17  (11- 6- 0) 
69   MN  HS   990.2366                St.PaulJohnson XX - SEMI   MSHSL   4  A     17  ( 8- 9- 0) 
70   MN  HS   990.0980                      Eastview             MSHSL   3 AA     19  ( 5-14- 0)
 
71   MN  HS   989.9571            MankatoEast/Loyola             MSHSL   1  A     19  (13- 5- 1) 
72   MN  HS   989.9503                    Chanhassen             MSHSL   2 AA     19  ( 8-11- 0) 
73   MN  HS   989.9165                 MoundWestonka             MSHSL   2  A     18  ( 7- 9- 2) 
74   MN  HS   989.8438                    Northfield             MSHSL   1 AA     18  (12- 5- 1) 
75   MN  HS   989.4977                    Hutchinson XX - FINAL  MSHSL   3  A     20  (12- 6- 2) 
76   MN  HS   989.1785                 NorthernLakes XX - FINAL  MSHSL   5  A     20  (17- 3- 0) 
77   MN  HS   989.0662                    Farmington             MSHSL   1 AA     18  ( 3-14- 1) 
78   MN  HS   988.9771    Virginia/MountainIron-Buhl XX - SEMI   MSHSL   7  A     19  (10- 8- 1) 
79   MN  HS   988.9385                       Hopkins             MSHSL   6 AA     18  ( 7-11- 0) 
80   MN  HS   988.9372                        Simley             MSHSL   4  A     17  ( 7- 8- 2) 

81   MN  HS   988.9177                         Anoka             MSHSL   7 AA     19  ( 2-15- 2) 
82   MN  HS   988.8305                   AppleValley             MSHSL   3 AA     16  ( 2-13- 1) 
83   MN  HS   988.7899                      Irondale             MSHSL   4 AA     20  ( 1-18- 1) 
84   MN  HS   988.7349                 RochesterMayo             MSHSL   1 AA     17  (12- 4- 1) 
85   MN  HS   988.7155             St.CloudCathedral             MSHSL   6  A     18  ( 8-10- 0) 
86   MN  HS   988.7052                    Monticello  XX - FINAL MSHSL   5  A     19  (12- 6- 1) 
87   MN  HS   988.7052      Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato  XX - FINAL MSHSL   3  A     19  ( 9- 8- 2) 
88   MN  HS   988.2672                         Osseo             MSHSL   5 AA     19  ( 6-12- 1) 
89   MN  HS   988.2501              Hibbing/Chisholm  XX - SEMI  MSHSL   7  A     18  (11- 6- 1) 
90   MN  HS   988.2314                  RedLakeFalls  XX - SEMI  MSHSL   8  A     19  (14- 5- 0) 

91   MN  HS   988.1156                  ChisagoLakes             MSHSL   5  A     20  (12- 7- 1) 
92   MN  HS   987.9524                         Eagan             MSHSL   3 AA     16  ( 1-15- 0) 
93   MN  HS   987.9432                KittsonCentral             MSHSL   8  A     17  (12- 4- 1) 
94   MN  HS   987.8932                   MankatoWest XX - FINAL  MSHSL   1  A     19  (13- 4- 2) 
95   MN  HS   987.7790                SpringLakePark             MSHSL   5 AA     19  ( 6-13- 0) 
96   MN  HS   987.7606                     NewPrague             MSHSL   2 AA     19  ( 3-16- 0) 
97   MN  HS   987.6742                     Faribault             MSHSL   1  A     18  ( 9- 6- 3) 
98   MN  HS   987.6300              Cambridge-Isanti             MSHSL   5  A     19  (11- 7- 1) 
99   MN  HS   987.6095                  DetroitLakes             MSHSL   8  A     17  ( 9- 8- 0) 
===============================================================================================
D3 Teams    (Bottom 50 MN)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
100  MN  HS   987.6024               Eveleth-Gilbert             MSHSL   7  A     18  ( 8- 6- 4) 
101  MN  HS   987.5354                    St.Francis             MSHSL   5  A     20  (10-10- 0) 
102  MN  HS   987.3585                St.PaulAcademy             MSHSL   4  A     16  ( 3-13- 0) 
103  MN  HS   987.2553                        NewUlm             MSHSL   3  A     20  (16- 4- 0) 
104  MN  HS   987.1479                    RiverLakes             MSHSL   6  A     13  ( 4- 7- 2) 
105  MN  HS   987.0395                DuluthMarshall             MSHSL   7 AA     18  ( 6- 9- 3) 
106  MN  HS   986.9435                 Morris/Benson             MSHSL   6  A     18  (13- 5- 0) 
107  MN  HS   986.8904              RochesterCentury             MSHSL   1 AA     19  ( 5-14- 0) 
108  MN  HS   986.8013                     Princeton             MSHSL   5  A     17  ( 6-11- 0) 
109  MN  HS   986.7763               SaukRapids-Rice             MSHSL   5  A     16  ( 6- 8- 2) 
110  MN  HS   986.7268                   NorthBranch             MSHSL   5  A     16  ( 6- 9- 1) 

111  MN  HS   986.5492                     AlbertLea             MSHSL   1  A     19  ( 9-10- 0) 
112  MN  HS   986.5064                  PineCityArea             MSHSL   5  A     21  (11-10- 0) 
113  MN  HS   986.4616                  SouthSt.Paul             MSHSL   4  A     19  ( 4-15- 0) 
114  MN  HS   986.3810                      Greenway             MSHSL   7  A     19  ( 7- 9- 3) 
115  MN  HS   986.0771                       Waconia             MSHSL   2  A     16  ( 3-13- 0) 
116  MN  HS   985.9439           St.PaulHighlandPark             MSHSL   4  A     14  ( 4-10- 0) 
117  MN  HS   985.8985            BloomingtonKennedy             MSHSL   2  A     18  ( 3-15- 0) 
118  MN  HS   985.8697              RochesterLourdes             MSHSL   1  A     18  (11- 6- 1) 
119  MN  HS   985.8300                   Mora/Milaca             MSHSL   5  A     15  ( 7- 8- 0) 
120  MN  HS   985.6838                   HenrySibley             MSHSL   4  A     20  ( 4-16- 0) 

121  MN  HS   985.5707            InternationalFalls             MSHSL   7  A     18  ( 6-11- 1) 
122  MN  HS   985.1594                       Proctor             MSHSL   7  A     20  ( 3-16- 1) 
123  MN  HS   985.0234                        Winona             MSHSL   1  A     19  ( 6-12- 1) 
124  MN  HS   984.7470              MinnehahaAcademy             MSHSL   4 AA     19  ( 1-17- 1) 
125  MN  HS   984.6063                Becker/BigLake             MSHSL   5  A     19  ( 3-15- 1) 
126  MN  HS   984.2511                        Waseca             MSHSL   1  A     20  (11- 9- 0) 
127  MN  HS   984.0836              Wadena-DeerCreek             MSHSL   6  A     18  ( 4-13- 1) 
128  MN  HS   984.0345                     Crookston             MSHSL   8  A     13  ( 2-11- 0) 
129  MN  HS   983.9128                    CoonRapids             MSHSL   5 AA     16  ( 0-15- 1) 
130  MN  HS   983.8207                    NorthShore             MSHSL   7  A     18  ( 6-12- 0)
 
131  MN  HS   983.7212         RochesterJohnMarshall             MSHSL   1 AA     14  ( 1-13- 0) 
132  MN  HS   983.5853                MinnesotaRiver             MSHSL   1  A     14  ( 9- 5- 0) 
133  MN  HS   983.5655                       Willmar             MSHSL   3  A     20  ( 3-17- 0) 
134  MN  HS   983.5208                       RedWing             MSHSL   4  A     18  ( 4-13- 1) 
135  MN  HS   983.3191                        Windom             MSHSL   3  A     19  (12- 7- 0) 
136  MN  HS   983.1287                Bagley/Fosston             MSHSL   8  A     20  ( 8-11- 1) 
137  MN  HS   982.9791                LakeoftheWoods             MSHSL   8  A     13  ( 3-10- 0) 
138  MN  HS   982.1558                    ParkRapids             MSHSL   8  A     18  ( 5-13- 0) 
139  MN  HS   981.7517                 RedwoodValley             MSHSL   3  A     19  ( 8-11- 0) 
140  MN  HS   981.6620                       Luverne             MSHSL   3  A     20  ( 8-12- 0) 

141  MN  HS   981.3260                 PrairieCentre             MSHSL   6  A     16  ( 2-13- 1) 
142  MN  HS   981.3152                      Marshall             MSHSL   3  A     19  ( 5-14- 0) 
143  MN  HS   981.2192              LaCrescent-Hokah             MSHSL   1  A     20  ( 6-14- 0) 
144  MN  HS   980.7992                   Worthington             MSHSL   3  A     20  ( 4-16- 0) 
145  MN  HS   979.9459         Breckenridge/Wahpeton             MSHSL   6  A     15  ( 1-14- 0) 
146  MN  HS   979.4705                 MooseLakeArea             MSHSL   5  A     16  ( 2-14- 0) 
147  MN  HS   977.2209                        Austin             MSHSL   1  A     16  ( 0-16- 0) 
148  MN  HS   977.0024                      Fairmont             MSHSL   3  A     18  ( 0-18- 0) 
149  MN  HS   976.1018                           Ely             MSHSL   7  A     11  ( 0-11- 0) 


O-townClown
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Re: Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by O-townClown » Sun Mar 21, 2021 11:19 pm

Thanks for running this.
Be kind. Rewind.

O-townClown
Posts: 4354
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Re: Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by O-townClown » Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:55 pm

MyHockey has Grand Rapids 5 spots higher than Andover, least squares is the reverse. Mildly interesting.
Be kind. Rewind.

O-townClown
Posts: 4354
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Re: Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by O-townClown » Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:57 pm

MyHockey shows Rosemount 64th! (LSQ 23rd)
Be kind. Rewind.

LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by LSQRANK » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:05 pm

Now that there is complete connectivity within the MN Boys network, I should be able to run the KRACH algorithm on just the MN in-state games. I'll try including both ND & WI but I think KRACH will not like multiple networks.

LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by LSQRANK » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:20 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:57 pm
MyHockey shows Rosemount 64th! (LSQ 23rd)
I got this off the MyHockeyRankings web site:

MYHockey 's ratings are computed mathematically, with no subjective weighting or human determined values. MYHockey rates teams based upon how well they play against other teams and how good those teams are. These two factors are "AGD" or "average goal differential" and "SCHED" or "strength of schedule". AGD is currently calculated by accumulating the goal differential of each game, to a maximum of 7, and divides it by the number of games played. Using a max game goal differential of 7 does "penalize" teams that blow out opponents, but this is common in rating systems as it takes away the incentive for teams to run up scores and allows them to have a bad game by capping the mathematical damage. The strength of schedule is computed by averaging the rating of each game opponent. AGD and SCHED are added together to compute a team's rating.

There is no preferential treatment for teams from certain leagues. All teams are assumed to be equal and having a rating of zero before the system mathematically calculates your SCHED and AGD based entirely upon game performance. A team's SCHED is not only determined by the teams it plays, but by the teams its opponents play and its opponents' opponents play, etc. All teams in a given age level (i.e. Midgets) are ranked in one statistical pool. The math does not know if the teams are major, minor, AAA or AA, it simply computes based upon who a team has played (SCHED) and how well they have done (AGD).

In general, as teams start getting 20+ games under their belts, the system tends to be very accurate. There are, however, some occasional exceptions.

If a group of teams (i.e. a league) doesn't play others outside its group, their placement relative to all other teams cannot be accurately determined, but relative to one another it is accurate. Groups of teams with limited outside play can be inaccurately skewed by the scores of only a few games, which might not be representative of the group's overall ability. Accuracy significantly increases with more games and more interplay and it makes sense for there to be a minimum number of games before teams are ranked.

Assuming teams have all played enough games against both league and non-league teams, inaccuracies may still exist. Some teams play differently (a lot differently) depending upon which goalie is in net for a specific game. In this case, the ratings average out the play and may not completely reflect either scenario. Missing players, home vs. away, double rostered players are a few other scenarios that could influence the accuracy of the ratings. It's not an exact science. The ratings should be used to determine what teams might be good non-league opponents and which bracket of a tournament may be more appropriate. They are not meant to be the AP Poll for youth hockey.

There are a couple weaknesses to the current system. The first deficiency is with teams that emphasize development in some games. They are "penalized". That same team may then focus on winning big tournaments and succeed, but may never achieve the rating that they "deserve". Secondly, teams that "come on" in the second half of the season are "penalized" by early poor performances. All games throughout the season count equally and that may not reflect a teams performance near the end of the season.

"Record" is represented by wins-loses-ties. As described above, the "Rating" is simply the sum of the "AGD" and "SCHED". "AGD" is average goal differential. This can be a positive or negative number that equals goals for (GF) minus goals against (GA) divided by games played (GP). One caveat, the system currently has a maximum goal differential of seven (7) for any single game played. This means that if a team plays a number of games decided by more than seven goals, it's not quite as simple as GF-GA/GP. "SCHED" is the average strength of schedule of all opponents. Fundamentally you can add the "RATING" for all opponents and divide by GP. "Details" will give you more information about the team while "Scores" is a link to a team's complete set of season game scores as recorded in MYHockey .

LSQRANK
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Re: Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by LSQRANK » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:42 pm

O-townClown wrote:
Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:57 pm
MyHockey shows Rosemount 64th! (LSQ 23rd)
MyHockey Rankings has Stillwater, Burnsville and forest Lake all ranked lower than St. Paul Academy #-o

Looking At MHR explanation of how they compute their ranking numbers, I believe where they miss the mathematical mark is where they are adding the SOS to the AGD (average goal differential) to compute a rating value. SOS's are a derivative of the rating profile, not a numerical additive value. The other blaring error they commit is to limit score differential to 7 goals. Although this practice is a "social norm" it is actually counter-productive when it comes to mathematically producing a better fitting model to all the data. In fact, we wrote a paper on a study we did on this exact issue and found that in many cases (about 50%) the final score differential of a run-time game needed to be extended or increased, depending upon how the run-time protocol rules affected the flow of the game from standard stop-time conditions. It similar to correcting a systematic error in a surveyor's steel tape measurement to standard environmental (temperature) conditions that were used to calibrate to steel tape in the first place.

O-townClown
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Re: Computer Rankings MN HS BOYS SUN MAR 21, 2012

Post by O-townClown » Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:23 am

Rosemount & Lakeville North did not have good nights, which seems to indicate MyHockey was on to something about SSC teams. We'll see how Lakeville South fares at state. They'll probably be awarded the #1 seed and may have a relatively easy opener. Their reckoning could come in the semi.
Be kind. Rewind.

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