Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

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Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)

Section 7AA Final: Who ya got?

Andover
9
28%
Grand Rapids
23
72%
 
Total votes: 32

BodyShots
Posts: 1921
Joined: Fri Feb 29, 2008 9:44 am

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by BodyShots » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:18 am

Sparlimb wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:08 am
mnmouth wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:51 am
grindiangrad-80 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:24 am


I would have to agree that I felt the same way after the 1st period. Shortly after killing the 3rd penalty the Huskies promptly pounded one in. I was texting with a few guys during the game last night and when I updated after the first I mentioned that Rapids was 0-3 on the PP. Knowing that they would have to spend a decent amount of time on the other end of special teams.

Karl's first sentence was spot on.
While I agree that Karl's first sentence was spot on, I think his second sentence, particularly the first phrase regarding the THawks lack of firepower, was even more telling. As it turns out, Larson stoning DeMars on that breakaway minutes into the 1st period might have been the sign that scoring a deflating goal - or even a big goal - was not in the cards for Rapids.

An even greater concern for fans of NE Minnesota Class AA hockey (Northern Minnesota Class AA hockey??) might be that we are getting closer and closer to the State Hockey Tournament becoming the Metro/Greater Metro Class AA Tournament, with no need to categorize it as a 'State' Tournament. We've been hearing about this possibility for nigh on 40 years and we unfortunately might finally be on the brink of this occurring regularly.
I'd have to disagree. Rapids has had some really good teams lately and East is always strong (minus this year). Hermantown doesn't seem to be having issues competing either. I read all the comments from those of you who watched the game last night and you all agree Rapids was the better team. Sometimes the better teams lose. Sometimes they dominate and lose. I've seen it way too many times. That's what happens in playoffs that are one and out. I don't see a sky is falling scenario here...

Moorhead or Roseau just may surprise someone too. Let's see it all play out.
I know, I know. How many times have we seen WBL dominate only to have HM win the game! :^o

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:20 am

Sparlimb wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:08 am
mnmouth wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:51 am
grindiangrad-80 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:24 am


I would have to agree that I felt the same way after the 1st period. Shortly after killing the 3rd penalty the Huskies promptly pounded one in. I was texting with a few guys during the game last night and when I updated after the first I mentioned that Rapids was 0-3 on the PP. Knowing that they would have to spend a decent amount of time on the other end of special teams.

Karl's first sentence was spot on.
While I agree that Karl's first sentence was spot on, I think his second sentence, particularly the first phrase regarding the THawks lack of firepower, was even more telling. As it turns out, Larson stoning DeMars on that breakaway minutes into the 1st period might have been the sign that scoring a deflating goal - or even a big goal - was not in the cards for Rapids.

An even greater concern for fans of NE Minnesota Class AA hockey (Northern Minnesota Class AA hockey??) might be that we are getting closer and closer to the State Hockey Tournament becoming the Metro/Greater Metro Class AA Tournament, with no need to categorize it as a 'State' Tournament. We've been hearing about this possibility for nigh on 40 years and we unfortunately might finally be on the brink of this occurring regularly.
I'd have to disagree. Rapids has had some really good teams lately and East is always strong (minus this year). Hermantown doesn't seem to be having issues competing either. I read all the comments from those of you who watched the game last night and you all agree Rapids was the better team. Sometimes the better teams lose. Sometimes they dominate and lose. I've seen it way too many times. That's what happens in playoffs that are one and out. I don't see a sky is falling scenario here...

Moorhead or Roseau just may surprise someone too. Let's see it all play out.
This same topic was brought up on the forum last year...and this is a copy of my response in that thread, for what it's worth:

The metro area hardly "dominates" AA, let alone A

In 2020 there were 66 programs playing in AA sections. Lets assume for a second that number has held steady, give or take, for 30 years. Of those 66 AA programs, 9 are considered northern teams [Duluth Marshall, Duluth East, Cloquet, Grand Rapids, Moorhead, St. Cloud, Roseau, Bemidji, Brainerd]. Thats about 13.5% of the teams playing AA that are considered northern.

In looking at past AA champions over the last 30 years, there have been 5 northern champs. Or about 16.5%. Generally a winning percentage several points above their representative percentage in AA.

In looking at past AA championship games over the last 30 years, there have been 21 northern teams participating. Or about 35% of all participating teams. Waaaaaaaay above their representative percentage in AA.

In other words, northern teams are the ones actually "dominating" AA, comparative to their representative percentage in that class.

You'd have a better argument that A has been dominated by metro teams over the last 25-30 years. Metro privates like Benilde, STA and Breck have all won multiple A titles. Even that said, 5 of the last 7 A champions have been northern teams. And the 2 that weren't aren't exactly metro powerhouses [Orono and Mahtomedi].
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

grindiangrad-80
Posts: 2546
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:00 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by grindiangrad-80 » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:28 am

mnmouth wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:51 am
grindiangrad-80 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:24 am
karl(east) wrote:
Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:39 pm
I thought the writing was on the wall when Rapids couldn't convert on their three PPs in the first period. Offensive firepower was always this team's Achilles Heel, and when they didn't take the early chances they got, it spelled trouble. Garrett Schifsky was the difference-maker, along with Will Larson in net. Credit to Rapids for battling back and throwing everything they had at Andover in the later stages of the game, but it just wasn't quite enough.

The Rapids fans' ref comments on Twitter are bringing back fond memories of 2013 for me. :wink: But, in all seriousness, congrats to Mr. Peart and a talented senior class--shame they couldn't break through. Hope Andover can represent the section well in St. Paul next week. Impressive work by Mark Manney and company to get back despite their heavy graduation losses. I doubt they'll be going away next season either.
I would have to agree that I felt the same way after the 1st period. Shortly after killing the 3rd penalty the Huskies promptly pounded one in. I was texting with a few guys during the game last night and when I updated after the first I mentioned that Rapids was 0-3 on the PP. Knowing that they would have to spend a decent amount of time on the other end of special teams.

Karl's first sentence was spot on.
While I agree that Karl's first sentence was spot on, I think his second sentence, particularly the first phrase regarding the THawks lack of firepower, was even more telling. As it turns out, Larson stoning DeMars on that breakaway minutes into the 1st period might have been the sign that scoring a deflating goal - or even a big goal - was not in the cards for Rapids.

An even greater concern for fans of NE Minnesota Class AA hockey (Northern Minnesota Class AA hockey??) might be that we are getting closer and closer to the State Hockey Tournament becoming the Metro/Greater Metro Class AA Tournament, with no need to categorize it as a 'State' Tournament. We've been hearing about this possibility for nigh on 40 years and we unfortunately might finally be on the brink of this occurring regularly.
Agree on Andover doing a good job of keeping Rapids from scoring early. That really was the difference in the game. But I don't think NE Minnesota hockey is necessarily going away anytime soon. I'm sure there will always be a couple state contenders in the area for a long time to come. Maybe, Hermantown will be a part of the AA mix in the future as well. (Not trying to start a riot here :lol: )

If you think about all the trends over the years that seemed would be unbeatable forever- Eveleth, International Falls, Roseau, Edina, Jefferson, St. Thomas and Hermantown in A- Anyway- As much as I would have liked to see Rapids next week, I'm sure we will have plenty of these types of games in sections for years to come.

Besides, I noticed that I don't have that bitter burn in my gut like I do after a loss to East in sections. We need to get back to that ASAP. :)

7TIMECHAMPS
Posts: 279
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:58 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by 7TIMECHAMPS » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:37 am

mnmouth wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:51 am
grindiangrad-80 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:24 am
karl(east) wrote:
Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:39 pm
I thought the writing was on the wall when Rapids couldn't convert on their three PPs in the first period. Offensive firepower was always this team's Achilles Heel, and when they didn't take the early chances they got, it spelled trouble. Garrett Schifsky was the difference-maker, along with Will Larson in net. Credit to Rapids for battling back and throwing everything they had at Andover in the later stages of the game, but it just wasn't quite enough.

The Rapids fans' ref comments on Twitter are bringing back fond memories of 2013 for me. :wink: But, in all seriousness, congrats to Mr. Peart and a talented senior class--shame they couldn't break through. Hope Andover can represent the section well in St. Paul next week. Impressive work by Mark Manney and company to get back despite their heavy graduation losses. I doubt they'll be going away next season either.
I would have to agree that I felt the same way after the 1st period. Shortly after killing the 3rd penalty the Huskies promptly pounded one in. I was texting with a few guys during the game last night and when I updated after the first I mentioned that Rapids was 0-3 on the PP. Knowing that they would have to spend a decent amount of time on the other end of special teams.

Karl's first sentence was spot on.
While I agree that Karl's first sentence was spot on, I think his second sentence, particularly the first phrase regarding the THawks lack of firepower, was even more telling. As it turns out, Larson stoning DeMars on that breakaway minutes into the 1st period might have been the sign that scoring a deflating goal - or even a big goal - was not in the cards for Rapids.

An even greater concern for fans of NE Minnesota Class AA hockey (Northern Minnesota Class AA hockey??) might be that we are getting closer and closer to the State Hockey Tournament becoming the Metro/Greater Metro Class AA Tournament, with no need to categorize it as a 'State' Tournament. We've been hearing about this possibility for nigh on 40 years and we unfortunately might finally be on the brink of this occurring regularly.


You hit the nail on the head, I think it is actually happening. In the past this has been a concern but not overly likely to happen on a regular basis. A "northern" team not winning the section was the exception not the rule. I see this changing in the near future. See below....

Highest ranked BAA team that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked PWAA that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked BAA team that would currently be in 8AA.....Rogers
Highest ranked PWAA team that would currently be in 8AA......Rogers

Rapids probably has one more good year in the tank(though maybe not the favorite even). After that I don't see the northern teams that have been holding down the fort in 7(East, Rapids, Cloquet) being able to sustain that. If Hermantown moves up they become the favorite in that section but we all know the chances of that.

Same thing but to a lesser extent (due to Moorhead) in 8. Moorhead still has some good youth teams but it is looking like (based on rankings) that Rogers may be the favorite. Moorhead will still have some success, but the section may run through Rogers in the near future. Warroad also has a group that could mix it up at AA for a while but I don't see that as likely to happen either.

To me if all of the teams are wealthy suburbs or private schools the tournament loses some of it's charm. I may get some eye roles from the metro for saying that but I don't think I am alone.

grindiangrad-80
Posts: 2546
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 8:00 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by grindiangrad-80 » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:48 am

I actually think that Andover and Rogers programs rising up is the reason that Minnesota hockey is great. It doesn't get stale. Northern Minnesota will always have enough resources to compete. That doesn't mean they will dominate every year. That's what will continue to make it special.

rainier2
Posts: 710
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:24 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by rainier2 » Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:53 am

mnmouth wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:51 am
grindiangrad-80 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:24 am
karl(east) wrote:
Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:39 pm
I thought the writing was on the wall when Rapids couldn't convert on their three PPs in the first period. Offensive firepower was always this team's Achilles Heel, and when they didn't take the early chances they got, it spelled trouble. Garrett Schifsky was the difference-maker, along with Will Larson in net. Credit to Rapids for battling back and throwing everything they had at Andover in the later stages of the game, but it just wasn't quite enough.

The Rapids fans' ref comments on Twitter are bringing back fond memories of 2013 for me. :wink: But, in all seriousness, congrats to Mr. Peart and a talented senior class--shame they couldn't break through. Hope Andover can represent the section well in St. Paul next week. Impressive work by Mark Manney and company to get back despite their heavy graduation losses. I doubt they'll be going away next season either.
I would have to agree that I felt the same way after the 1st period. Shortly after killing the 3rd penalty the Huskies promptly pounded one in. I was texting with a few guys during the game last night and when I updated after the first I mentioned that Rapids was 0-3 on the PP. Knowing that they would have to spend a decent amount of time on the other end of special teams.

Karl's first sentence was spot on.
While I agree that Karl's first sentence was spot on, I think his second sentence, particularly the first phrase regarding the THawks lack of firepower, was even more telling. As it turns out, Larson stoning DeMars on that breakaway minutes into the 1st period might have been the sign that scoring a deflating goal - or even a big goal - was not in the cards for Rapids.

An even greater concern for fans of NE Minnesota Class AA hockey (Northern Minnesota Class AA hockey??) might be that we are getting closer and closer to the State Hockey Tournament becoming the Metro/Greater Metro Class AA Tournament, with no need to categorize it as a 'State' Tournament. We've been hearing about this possibility for nigh on 40 years and we unfortunately might finally be on the brink of this occurring regularly.
Some thoughts on outstate teams in AA:

-In 7AA, obviously Hermantown moving up would provide another top notch northern team, but it will be interesting to see what happens at Rock Ridge, which will start in 22-23. The combined enrollment of all the schools in the hockey program will be 1051, which is slightly larger than GR. With a bit of synergy, which i think will happen, they could become a contender in 7AA. And if Hibbing can start cranking out more teams like their current PWA team, they might join the 7AA fray, at least periodically.

-In 8AA, Alexandria and Sartell may cross the AA enrollment threshold soon, and EGF is not far from being able to compete for 8AA titles every year, so there could be three more northern teams to boot out STMA/Buffalo/Rogers.

-In 1AA, not sure why no Rochester school has been able to make a run in a while.

Hockeyfan911
Posts: 34
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by Hockeyfan911 » Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:08 pm

7TIMECHAMPS wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:37 am
mnmouth wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:51 am
grindiangrad-80 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:24 am


I would have to agree that I felt the same way after the 1st period. Shortly after killing the 3rd penalty the Huskies promptly pounded one in. I was texting with a few guys during the game last night and when I updated after the first I mentioned that Rapids was 0-3 on the PP. Knowing that they would have to spend a decent amount of time on the other end of special teams.

Karl's first sentence was spot on.
While I agree that Karl's first sentence was spot on, I think his second sentence, particularly the first phrase regarding the THawks lack of firepower, was even more telling. As it turns out, Larson stoning DeMars on that breakaway minutes into the 1st period might have been the sign that scoring a deflating goal - or even a big goal - was not in the cards for Rapids.

An even greater concern for fans of NE Minnesota Class AA hockey (Northern Minnesota Class AA hockey??) might be that we are getting closer and closer to the State Hockey Tournament becoming the Metro/Greater Metro Class AA Tournament, with no need to categorize it as a 'State' Tournament. We've been hearing about this possibility for nigh on 40 years and we unfortunately might finally be on the brink of this occurring regularly.


You hit the nail on the head, I think it is actually happening. In the past this has been a concern but not overly likely to happen on a regular basis. A "northern" team not winning the section was the exception not the rule. I see this changing in the near future. See below....

Highest ranked BAA team that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked PWAA that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked BAA team that would currently be in 8AA.....Rogers
Highest ranked PWAA team that would currently be in 8AA......Rogers

Rapids probably has one more good year in the tank(though maybe not the favorite even). After that I don't see the northern teams that have been holding down the fort in 7(East, Rapids, Cloquet) being able to sustain that. If Hermantown moves up they become the favorite in that section but we all know the chances of that.

Same thing but to a lesser extent (due to Moorhead) in 8. Moorhead still has some good youth teams but it is looking like (based on rankings) that Rogers may be the favorite. Moorhead will still have some success, but the section may run through Rogers in the near future. Warroad also has a group that could mix it up at AA for a while but I don't see that as likely to happen either.

To me if all of the teams are wealthy suburbs or private schools the tournament loses some of it's charm. I may get some eye roles from the metro for saying that but I don't think I am alone.
I would have to agree that while youth hockey success does not always predict HS success we are watching it play out. Unfortunately or fortunately depending on who you talk to Andover will likely own this section for the next 4-5 years. With the exception of Hermantown (A) their youth programs are just better. Moorhead youth teams are still strong so Rogers might not see the same dominance. The suburban demographics changed many years ago with many young families moving out to Maple Grove, Andover, Rogers, etc...We are watching it play out and it will likely run its course for many years.

Sparlimb
Posts: 2491
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by Sparlimb » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:03 pm

Hockeyfan911 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:08 pm
7TIMECHAMPS wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:37 am
mnmouth wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 8:51 am


While I agree that Karl's first sentence was spot on, I think his second sentence, particularly the first phrase regarding the THawks lack of firepower, was even more telling. As it turns out, Larson stoning DeMars on that breakaway minutes into the 1st period might have been the sign that scoring a deflating goal - or even a big goal - was not in the cards for Rapids.

An even greater concern for fans of NE Minnesota Class AA hockey (Northern Minnesota Class AA hockey??) might be that we are getting closer and closer to the State Hockey Tournament becoming the Metro/Greater Metro Class AA Tournament, with no need to categorize it as a 'State' Tournament. We've been hearing about this possibility for nigh on 40 years and we unfortunately might finally be on the brink of this occurring regularly.


You hit the nail on the head, I think it is actually happening. In the past this has been a concern but not overly likely to happen on a regular basis. A "northern" team not winning the section was the exception not the rule. I see this changing in the near future. See below....

Highest ranked BAA team that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked PWAA that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked BAA team that would currently be in 8AA.....Rogers
Highest ranked PWAA team that would currently be in 8AA......Rogers

Rapids probably has one more good year in the tank(though maybe not the favorite even). After that I don't see the northern teams that have been holding down the fort in 7(East, Rapids, Cloquet) being able to sustain that. If Hermantown moves up they become the favorite in that section but we all know the chances of that.

Same thing but to a lesser extent (due to Moorhead) in 8. Moorhead still has some good youth teams but it is looking like (based on rankings) that Rogers may be the favorite. Moorhead will still have some success, but the section may run through Rogers in the near future. Warroad also has a group that could mix it up at AA for a while but I don't see that as likely to happen either.

To me if all of the teams are wealthy suburbs or private schools the tournament loses some of it's charm. I may get some eye roles from the metro for saying that but I don't think I am alone.
I would have to agree that while youth hockey success does not always predict HS success we are watching it play out. Unfortunately or fortunately depending on who you talk to Andover will likely own this section for the next 4-5 years. With the exception of Hermantown (A) their youth programs are just better. Moorhead youth teams are still strong so Rogers might not see the same dominance. The suburban demographics changed many years ago with many young families moving out to Maple Grove, Andover, Rogers, etc...We are watching it play out and it will likely run its course for many years.
So did the better, higher ranked team win the section this year? So what makes you think Andover being the better team the next 4-5 years has anything to do with how many section titles they win? Best team should generally win, but that doesn't preclude East or Rapids or anyone else from winning.

Hockeyfan911
Posts: 34
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 12:09 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by Hockeyfan911 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:04 am

Sparlimb wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:03 pm
Hockeyfan911 wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:08 pm
7TIMECHAMPS wrote:
Thu Mar 25, 2021 9:37 am
[/b]

You hit the nail on the head, I think it is actually happening. In the past this has been a concern but not overly likely to happen on a regular basis. A "northern" team not winning the section was the exception not the rule. I see this changing in the near future. See below....

Highest ranked BAA team that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked PWAA that would currently belong in 7AA.....Andover
Highest ranked BAA team that would currently be in 8AA.....Rogers
Highest ranked PWAA team that would currently be in 8AA......Rogers

Rapids probably has one more good year in the tank(though maybe not the favorite even). After that I don't see the northern teams that have been holding down the fort in 7(East, Rapids, Cloquet) being able to sustain that. If Hermantown moves up they become the favorite in that section but we all know the chances of that.

Same thing but to a lesser extent (due to Moorhead) in 8. Moorhead still has some good youth teams but it is looking like (based on rankings) that Rogers may be the favorite. Moorhead will still have some success, but the section may run through Rogers in the near future. Warroad also has a group that could mix it up at AA for a while but I don't see that as likely to happen either.

To me if all of the teams are wealthy suburbs or private schools the tournament loses some of it's charm. I may get some eye roles from the metro for saying that but I don't think I am alone.
I would have to agree that while youth hockey success does not always predict HS success we are watching it play out. Unfortunately or fortunately depending on who you talk to Andover will likely own this section for the next 4-5 years. With the exception of Hermantown (A) their youth programs are just better. Moorhead youth teams are still strong so Rogers might not see the same dominance. The suburban demographics changed many years ago with many young families moving out to Maple Grove, Andover, Rogers, etc...We are watching it play out and it will likely run its course for many years.
So did the better, higher ranked team win the section this year? So what makes you think Andover being the better team the next 4-5 years has anything to do with how many section titles they win? Best team should generally win, but that doesn't preclude East or Rapids or anyone else from winning.
Sorry - maybe my point wasn’t clear. As Sparlimb and even Karl has indicated, as hard as it is to accept, Andover isn’t going anywhere and their feeder system is far stronger than any section 7 youth program for the foreseeable future (hermantown excluded). GR was the better team in the final and the better team does not always win so I would not hand Andover the section title for the next 5 years but it is hard to disagree based on what we are seeing in recent past and what is coming that they won’t be the favorites in this section for awhile.

Stang5280
Posts: 1955
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:12 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by Stang5280 » Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:35 pm

While we’re debating whether anyone in the section can compete with Andover going forward, this seems like an appropriate place to drop in a link to Karl’s postmortem dissection of East’s season:
https://apatientcycle.com/2021/03/18/incomplete/

With all due respect, I don’t necessarily share his optimism about the young core. Granted, I didn’t watch many East games, but I also didn’t see much star power in that group. The talent pipeline seems to be slowly drying up, which is concerning. Hopefully I am wrong, but there is a lot of work to be done to become competitive again in the section, much less at the state level.

Wise Old Man
Posts: 340
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2019 8:11 pm

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by Wise Old Man » Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:21 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:35 pm
While we’re debating whether anyone in the section can compete with Andover going forward, this seems like an appropriate place to drop in a link to Karl’s postmortem dissection of East’s season:
https://apatientcycle.com/2021/03/18/incomplete/

With all due respect, I don’t necessarily share his optimism about the young core. Granted, I didn’t watch many East games, but I also didn’t see much star power in that group. The talent pipeline seems to be slowly drying up, which is concerning. Hopefully I am wrong, but there is a lot of work to be done to become competitive again in the section, much less at the state level.
Stang...thanks for the link. Another very well written piece by Karl. He really is a talented writer and his passion for the high school level always shows in his work. Stang, based on what I've been told by people directly involved in the East Duluth youth programs, although there are apparently a couple of legitimate "studs" coming the next few years, the overall incoming talent is a mixed bag at best. I've also been told that there are two or three of the East Bantam AA players already attending Marshall, and there are also a couple on the Bantam A team as well. Along with a few others considering that option.

What will be a much more important storyline to watch is whether or not Coach Randolph returns. My sources are saying there is a legitimate chance he may not be back. And not of his own volition either. Apparently, after the Facebook post from the player that left after Mike apparently telling him he'd never play varsity after only 30 minutes of tryouts and having played JV last year (now...that's the player's side and, we all know there's always two sides to these things), the school district is taking significant steps to ensure it does it's "due diligence" before deciding about whether to retain Mike or not. I'm being told they're looking at all aspects of the program, including summer camps and the booster club. Regardless of the outcome, I'm confident East will continue to be a dominant force in 7AA in the coming years. Despite the last two seasons or, any talent challenges in the immediate future. Now, if we can just get Hermantown to play where they should be... :mrgreen:

karl(east)
Posts: 6462
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Contact:

Re: Section 7AA Final - Andover vs Grand Rapids

Post by karl(east) » Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:57 am

Stang5280 wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:35 pm
While we’re debating whether anyone in the section can compete with Andover going forward, this seems like an appropriate place to drop in a link to Karl’s postmortem dissection of East’s season:
https://apatientcycle.com/2021/03/18/incomplete/

With all due respect, I don’t necessarily share his optimism about the young core. Granted, I didn’t watch many East games, but I also didn’t see much star power in that group. The talent pipeline seems to be slowly drying up, which is concerning. Hopefully I am wrong, but there is a lot of work to be done to become competitive again in the section, much less at the state level.
The current sophomore and freshman classes were both top 10ish as PeeWees, which is equal to or better than what any current 7AA member can say. (Bantam results for East are not useful since they pull kids up to HS so often.) Obviously a lot can change between PeeWees and high school, but that's a decent base to build from and historically they've lost less of any great importance to private schools than some of the other top 10 programs. And when East teams are drilling Randolph systems, they have a habit of looking awful until things start clicking into place. But Christian, Winkler, Spenningsby, and Peterson plus 2-3 of the current bantams make a strong core on paper if they stick around and progress. I'm not saying they're Worth/LaMaster/Donovan or Randloph/Olson/Toninato-level teams, but certainly capable of being on par with many of the teams between those groups that still went to State regularly or lost thrillers to elite Rapids teams. Looking at the current youth teams' results, they're a bit lower but still plenty competitive with all but the very top teams in the state, including Andover.

On paper, I'd expect a three-horse race between 1) Andover 2) East and 3) Rapids over the next few years in 7AA. What has changed is that Andover has caught up depth-wise; that pretty much has always been an advantage East enjoys in this section that may no longer be true. Longer-term the question is whether Andover can sustain this success or if it's one of those outer-ring suburbs that rises up for a bit but then goes back down as the newer development moves on. As far as I know East's youth numbers are pretty stable, and income levels are not dropping on the east side. (If anything, they're growing at a faster rate than in the recent past.) The base of the pyramid looks pretty sound.

That doesn't guarantee success. Marshall could start picking up more kids (as they have periodically in the past, like in the late 60s and the 00s) or internal strife could tear things down. It's not crazy to imagine a future for the east side of Duluth that looks something like southwest and far south Minneapolis: some lovely pockets of a city that has some significant challenges in other parts, and not bursting with young hockey-playing families, with significant private school attendance. But I can think of counterpoints to all that, too: East has been fine hockey-wise despite minimal growth for the past 40+ years, the central and west sides of Duluth are very different from north and northeast Minneapolis, and it's a much smaller market and there just aren't that many other options for people here. It's in the realm of possibility, but I don't see the Hounds fading too far away.

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