MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

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TourneyEarnie
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MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by TourneyEarnie » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:21 pm

Hey everyone! I'm pretty new to this forum, but not to MN HS hockey. I was a Student manager & Social Media manager for the Hill-Murray boys hockey team from 2015-2017. I currently attend SCSU where I'm apart of Husky Productions.

A few weeks back a local sports announcer and I were talking about a theoretical AAA Class, mainly pointing fingers at Gentry and Hermantown. What I came up with was a promotion/relegation system that got rid of A and AA. Within this new format there are now 6 groups of 24 teams, based on past performances over the last 5 seasons. The results went as expected, but the few outliers were interesting. Take a look here and let me know what you think -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk
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Eagles93
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by Eagles93 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:38 pm

I appreciate your thinking outside the box but 6 classes? I'd be in favor of expanding to 3 but 6 is way too many.

Sioux Lookout
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by Sioux Lookout » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:40 pm

Where does Roseville fit in?

elliott70
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by elliott70 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:51 pm

Eagles93 wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:38 pm
I appreciate your thinking outside the box but 6 classes? I'd be in favor of expanding to 3 but 6 is way too many.
Also, you weighted single A the same as AA.
You also did the same with each section - some sections are worth much more than other sections.

Revamp it and get back to us.

Corn Cobb
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by Corn Cobb » Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:59 pm

For starters, you may want to check your data. I saw several high schools with incorrect information.

TourneyEarnie
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by TourneyEarnie » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:16 pm

Eagles93 wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:38 pm
I appreciate your thinking outside the box but 6 classes? I'd be in favor of expanding to 3 but 6 is way too many.
My reasoning behind this was mainly scheduling. Everyone plays everyone to keep it fair and its 2 games less than normal, which would be open to be scheduled. With 6 groups teams within each group are all closer in skill IIRC MNHS football have 5 or 6 classes so I personally didnt worry about it. We would have less blowouts and each class would be able to compete for a state title within their class. My one question with 3 groups is how would scheduling work?
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bardown27
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by bardown27 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:21 pm

Corn Cobb wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:59 pm
For starters, you may want to check your data. I saw several high schools with incorrect information.
Second this statement, and it only took me looking at two schools to see they were both wrong

TourneyEarnie
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by TourneyEarnie » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:49 pm

Thank you to everyone that has responded so far, I wasnt sure how much traction this was going to get.

I'm not surprised I have some misinformation and missing teams with all of the data I've entered, so if you find any dont be afraid to point it out so I can look into it.

Thanks again!
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Eagles93
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by Eagles93 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:54 pm

TourneyEarnie wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:16 pm
My reasoning behind this was mainly scheduling. Everyone plays everyone to keep it fair and its 2 games less than normal, which would be open to be scheduled. With 6 groups teams within each group are all closer in skill IIRC MNHS football have 5 or 6 classes so I personally didnt worry about it. We would have less blowouts and each class would be able to compete for a state title within their class. My one question with 3 groups is how would scheduling work?
I don't see a need for regular season scheduling to change, except that I think teams should play all (or a large percentage) of it's regular season games against teams from the same class that they compete at in playoffs.

And travel would be a nightmare if you split up the teams like this. Using your breakdown, Worthington would play against Bemidji, Proctor, Bagley, Ely, Moose Lake, just to name a few extremely long trips.

Stang5280
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by Stang5280 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:48 pm

Sorry, but I think a model solely based on postseason success is too simplistic. Not all sections are created equally (coming out of 3A is far different than a meat grinder like 6AA), and past success is no guarantee of future performance, as they say in the investment industry. If you are inclined to stick with this idea, there are a few things that could be tweaked, some of which have been referenced above.

1. A and AA need to be weighted differently
2. Success at the state tournament is weighted too heavily; a magical run by a Greenway or Dodge County completely skews their results.
3. More recent results should be weighted more heavily than older ones.
4. Look into analyzing each section's performance at state and applying a factor for advancing to the semis, finals, or state in the respective sections.

grindiangrad-80
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by grindiangrad-80 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:49 pm

Pretty interesting TourneyEarnie. Looks like a good starting point for competitive sections. I'm sure there would be plenty of tweaks to be done to this but it certainly would take care of some of the "Hot Button" topics in relation to Minnesota Hockey. It would also keep teams in the future from being able to dominate schools who have no chance at competing at an ultra high level.

Many people are looking for changes and solutions. Some version of this may make sense.

raidergrad72
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by raidergrad72 » Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:57 pm

Tourneyernie I had a hard time trying to work my way through your graphs but I can understand enough to agree with Stange, a one season run like my alma mater Greenway or Dodge throws a monkey wrench into the plan. Placing them in the red puts them in with a team like Eden Prairie unless I'm reading this wrong.

Schotzy
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by Schotzy » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:34 am

It is a unique idea. Of course anything like this requires some “tweaks”. Personally, I have always been a fan of the relegation format based on some sort of equation of yearly or bi-yearly regular season/playoff performance metric.

Side note: Fellow Huskie Productions guy from waaaaay back in the day. I was a small part of the group that got things started with the likes of B. Stanley and the bunch. Fun times. Enjoy the experience. You guys are light years beyond what we were doing. I still work broadcasts for UMD hockey. ( Over 30-years in TV now. Not sure how it happened, but I managed to become one of the old-timers. 😂 ) We have aired a couple of your broadcasts and I am impressed with the production quality from an all student crew.

Good luck Saturday night! Was hoping for an all NCHC final, but waddyado? 🤷🏼‍♂️ #GoHuskiesWOOOOO

LSQRANK
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by LSQRANK » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:25 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:48 pm
Sorry, but I think a model solely based on postseason success is too simplistic. Not all sections are created equally (coming out of 3A is far different than a meat grinder like 6AA), and past success is no guarantee of future performance, as they say in the investment industry. If you are inclined to stick with this idea, there are a few things that could be tweaked, some of which have been referenced above.

1. A and AA need to be weighted differently
2. Success at the state tournament is weighted too heavily; a magical run by a Greenway or Dodge County completely skews their results.
3. More recent results should be weighted more heavily than older ones.
4. Look into analyzing each section's performance at state and applying a factor for advancing to the semis, finals, or state in the respective sections.
I second Stangers thoughts here. There are two ways of doing this, one way is the predetermined section approach where the MSHSL pre-allocates teams into sections based on several factors: Geography (primary), program size (rather than school size), and long term success rate which relates to program success. If one creates a rating profile and plots the graph (y=axis rating value & x-axis school increment) one generally ends up with a curve looking like an "S" lying on its side. By dividing this plot into 3 three divisions (D1, D2 & D3) and 8 geographical sections per division, it is possible to create 24 highly competitive groups for the playoff season without overloading the logistical demands of administering a state tournament process. There are other (hockey participation) growth benefits that can occur given the right circumstances with a three-class system. The other way of doing this is to have a 'March-Madness" type selection weekend at the end of each regular season to sort teams into three divisions based on an unbiased numerical rating system (could be a combination of various techniques and algorthims). Either way, one might end up with a 3 division alignment such as below:

Code: Select all

A proposed Minnesota High School section alignment scheme
based on a 3-Tier system considering strength of program/ratings and Geo location.

Ver #3

D1 --> Top    52 teams   35%
D2 --> Middle 49 Teams   33%
D3 --> Bottom 48 Teams   32%



GEO       Div-Sec  Teams
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SE Minn   D1-1     LakevilleSouth,      LakevilleNorth,   Farmington,           Hastings,           PriorLake,              ParkofCottageGrove    
WS Metro  D1-2     EdenPrairie,         HolyFamily,       Minnetonka,           Wayzata,            Chaska,                 Shakopee
SE Metro  D1-3     St.ThomasAcademy,    Eagan,            Eastview,             Rosemount,          Burnsville,             EastRidge,              Woodbury              
NE Metro  D1-4     Cretin-DerhamHall,   Hill-Murray,      WhiteBearLake,        Mahtomedi,          Stillwater,             GentryAcademy,          ForestLake
NW Metro  D1-5     Blaine,              Andover,          MapleGrove,           ElkRiver,           STMA,                   Centennial,             Rogers
SW Metro  D1-6     Edina,               Blake,            BSM's,                St.LouisPark,       HolyAngels,             Breck,                  Totino-Grace
NE Minn   D1-7     DuluthEast,          Hermantown,       GrandRapids,          Cloquet,            St.CloudUnited,         DuluthDenfeld          
NW Minn   D1-8     Moorhead,            Roseau,           Warroad,              EastGrandForks,     St.CloudCathedral,      ThiefRiverFalls        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
SE Minn   D2-1     NewPrague,           Northfield,       Faribault,            Owatonna,           RochesterMayo,          RochesterCentury,       DodgeCounty   
SC Minn   D2-2     MankatoEast,         MankatoWest,      Hutchinson,           LDC,                RiverLakes,             Sartell-St.Stephen 
SE Metro  D2-3     Tartan,              St.PaulJohnson,   SouthSt.Paul,         St.PaulAcademy,     Simley,                 AppleValley         
NE Metro  D2-4     Roseville,           MoundsView,       Irondale,             CoonRapids,         Osseo,                  St.Francis
NW Metro  D2-5     Anoka,               ChamplinPark,     Orono,                Delano,             Buffalo,                Monticello                    
WS Metro  D2-6     Minneapolis,         Armstrong/Cooper, BloomingtonJefferson, Hopkins,            MoundWestonka,          ProvidenceAcademy,       SWC/Richfield               
NE Minn   D2-7     DuluthMarshall,      Hibbing/Chisholm, Eveleth-Gilbert,      Virginia,           Bemidji
NW Minn   D2-8     LittleFalls,         Alexandria,       FergusFalls,          DetroitLakes,       Brainerd,               NorthernLakes
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------				   
SE Minn   D3-1     Austin,              LaCrescent,       AlbertLea,            Winona,             RochesterLourdes,       RochesterJohnMarshall
SW Minn   D3-2     Luverne,             Fairmont,         RedwoodValley,        Worthington,        Windom,                 Marshall                
SE Metro  D3-3     St.PaulHighlandPark, MinnehahaAcademy, HenrySibley,          RedWing,            PineCityArea                              
EC Minn   D3-4     Cambridge-Isanti,    SpringLakePark,   Mora/Milaca,          ChisagoLakes,       Princeton,              NorthBranch              
WC Minn   D3-5     Becker/BigLake,      Willmar,          PrairieCentre,        SaukRapids-Rice,    Wadena-DeerCreek,       Morris/Benson           
SC Minn   D3-6     NewUlm,              Waseca,           Waconia,              MinnesotaRiver,     Chanhassen,             BloomingtonKennedy
NE Minn   D3-7     InternationalFalls,  Ely,              Greenway,             NorthShore,         Proctor,                MooseLakeArea                       
NW Minn   D3-8     KittsonCentral,      Crookston,        LakeoftheWoods,       ParkRapids,         RedLakeFalls,           Bagley/Fosston,          Breckenridge/Wahpeton                  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


O-townClown
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by O-townClown » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:55 pm

Amusing discussion I guess, but introducing things like promotion/relegation and tying classification to "program size" (think about it for a few seconds and you'll realize it doesn't make sense) seems quixotic.

Even if MSHSL went to three classed they'd just sort like they do in all sports. They oversee a lot more than hockey.
Be kind. Rewind.

elliott70
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by elliott70 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:41 pm

If there is to be a third class the MSHSL would probably look at the AAAAAA in football and take the top number of teams and form a AAA level.

Knowing they like to consider 64 teams per class and there are currently about 156 teams - subtract 64 twice or 128 and that leaves = 28 teams or so to move up.

So if we settle on 32 teams to move up - 8 4 team sections:
Take the top 32 schools and kick some down because...
Roseville, Anoka, Hopkins, Coon rapids, Osseo Robbinsdale and maybe one or two or so more and add in others (privates and Moorhead...

so add in Hill, Cretin, Benilde, STA, Blake and Gentry.

And you have roughly 32 teams.

elliott70
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by elliott70 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:43 pm

Then the remaining 128 plus or minus would be AA and A by population and opt up and petition downs.

skiumah
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by skiumah » Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:01 pm

elliott70 wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:41 pm
If there is to be a third class the MSHSL would probably look at the AAAAAA in football and take the top number of teams and form a AAA level.

Knowing they like to consider 64 teams per class and there are currently about 156 teams - subtract 64 twice or 128 and that leaves = 28 teams or so to move up.

So if we settle on 32 teams to move up - 8 4 team sections:
Take the top 32 schools and kick some down because...
Roseville, Anoka, Hopkins, Coon rapids, Osseo Robbinsdale and maybe one or two or so more and add in others (privates and Moorhead...

so add in Hill, Cretin, Benilde, STA, Blake and Gentry.

And you have roughly 32 teams.
I've always liked this idea, and want to expand on it further. 32 teams in AA. Eight pods of 4 in pool play. Each team gets 3 guaranteed playoff games.

A neutral arena hosts a specific pod, no home ice advantage. Game are played Thursday thru Saturday. Top 2 teams of each pod advance to a 16 team single elimination format: 1s vs 2s. This would take place the following Tue/Wed, and then championship Saturday. From there, reseed for the State tournament at the X.

The pods would have to be done geographically. But how fun would a random draw be? Watching pool play at Braemar with Duluth East, Hill Murray, Stillwater and Wayzata. Or Moorhead Sports Center hosts Lakeville South, Andover, Roseau and BSM. Guessing that would be cost prohibited, but I can dream. A random draw for the round of 16 could work. Example, Section 8 #1 hosts Section 4 #2.

None of this is groundbreaking, of course. Taking the idea from the World Cup. And I'll borrow another idea from outside the US: promotion/relegation. The 4th place teams from each pod are relegated to the Class A playoffs the following year. The 8 teams that won their Class A sections are then promoted to the AA playoffs the following year.

It would be difficult to determine the 32 AA teams the first time. I’m sure I’m leaving someone out. Which isn’t done on purpose.
1. Duluth East
2. EP
3. Wayzata
4. Edina
5. Mtka
6. STMA
7. Grand Rapids
8. Roseau
9. St Thomas
10. Hill Murray
11. BSM
12. Maple Grove
13. Andover
14. Centennial
15. Blaine
16. Lakeville South
17. Lakeville North
18. Prior Lake
19. Burnsville
20. Eastview
21. Farmington
22. Eagan
23. Bemidji
24. CDH
25. WBL
26. Stillwater
27. Flake
28. Mounds View
29. Gentry
30. Roseville
31. CEC
32. Holy Family

It would work itself out after a few years, with the help of promotion/relegation. The best teams would end up in AA regardless of school enrollment.

I think this format would make the post season even more exciting; every game counts, every goal matters.

Joe2015
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Re: MSHSL Boys Hockey Reformatted

Post by Joe2015 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:51 am

TourneyEarnie wrote:
Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:21 pm
Hey everyone! I'm pretty new to this forum, but not to MN HS hockey. I was a Student manager & Social Media manager for the Hill-Murray boys hockey team from 2015-2017. I currently attend SCSU where I'm apart of Husky Productions.

A few weeks back a local sports announcer and I were talking about a theoretical AAA Class, mainly pointing fingers at Gentry and Hermantown. What I came up with was a promotion/relegation system that got rid of A and AA. Within this new format there are now 6 groups of 24 teams, based on past performances over the last 5 seasons. The results went as expected, but the few outliers were interesting. Take a look here and let me know what you think -> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... p=drivesdk
Id be ALL FOR a promotion/relegation system: I think that would make far far more sense than relying on enrollment as the main component for placing a team (that would go for all sports as well: not just hockey).

Just not sure how you decided on 6 groups: thats way way too many. 3 groups/classes would seem about right.

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