PageStat 2021-22

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O-townClown
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by O-townClown » Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:32 am

east hockey wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:41 pm
The current #1, Maple Grove, won't be tomorrow after their three goal loss to Centennial tonight.
Roseau was same. Dropped from 1 to 11 when they got trounced by Warroad.

Being anyone's #1 for AA has been the kiss of death. They've all promptly lost.

Maple Grove
Cretin
Edina
Lakeville South
Andover
Roseau
Be kind. Rewind.

east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:26 am

O-townClown wrote:
Fri Jan 07, 2022 12:32 am
east hockey wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:41 pm
The current #1, Maple Grove, won't be tomorrow after their three goal loss to Centennial tonight.
Roseau was same. Dropped from 1 to 11 when they got trounced by Warroad.

Being anyone's #1 for AA has been the kiss of death. They've all promptly lost.

Maple Grove
Cretin
Edina
Lakeville South
Andover
Roseau
And now CDH is back at #1 in Class AA

Lee
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blueblood
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by blueblood » Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:24 am

SOS link not working
Play Like a Champion Today

east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Sun Jan 16, 2022 11:29 am

blueblood wrote:
Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:24 am
SOS link not working
http://www.leepagen.com/strength.htm

Can also get to it from here:

http://www.leepagen.com/ps.htm

Lee
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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Sun Feb 20, 2022 7:41 pm

PageStat disagrees with the seedings in the following Minn. Boys HS Hockey section tournament games:

8AA (5) STMA over (4) Buffalo
3A (9) Minn. River over (8) Fairmont
4A (5) Two Rivers over (4) SP Highland Park
8A (10) Lake of the Woods over (7) Crookston

There was no competition last season. PageStat beat the seedings +1 in 2020, +10(!) in 2019, and +3 in 2018. The last losing year was 2014 (-1). As always, I'm pessimistic heading into the section tournaments.

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WestMetro
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by WestMetro » Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:56 pm

Lee pls clarify

PageStat had Tonka #1 for example

Or Rosemount as # 3

east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Sun Feb 20, 2022 10:25 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Sun Feb 20, 2022 8:56 pm
Lee pls clarify

PageStat had Tonka #1 for example

Or Rosemount as # 3
Maybe badly worded-- meant to say that PageStat disagrees with who the seedings have selected in specific games. There will likely be a number of other disagreements as the teams advance. The four games are just for those games which already have the combatants (I use combatants because East's season is still alive :mrgreen: ) selected

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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:17 pm

After picking three "underdogs" to win so far, PageStat has gone 2-1 and sits at +1. Upcoming games where PageStat has predicted the lower seed to win:

4A--(5) Two Rivers over (4) St Paul Highland Park
5A--(3) St Cloud Cathedral over (2) Cambridge

Lee
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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Sat Feb 26, 2022 9:04 am

PageStat is +2 on the seedings. Only one upset prediction today:

5A semifinals: (3) St Cloud Cathedral over (2) Cambridge

Lee
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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Sat Feb 26, 2022 6:37 pm

SCC wins, PageStat up +3.

Upcoming underdog picks by PageStat (official seeding in parenthesis):

4AA: (3) White Bear Lake over (2) Stillwater
5AA: (2) Maple Grove over (1) Rogers
1A: (4) New Prague over (1) Albert Lea
2A: (2) Delano over (1) Minneapolis
3A: (2) Mankato East over (1) New Ulm
4A: (3) Chisago Lakes over (2) Simley

PageStat will end up anywhere between -3 and +9

On a side note, PageStat has predicted an average of 10.6 upsets a year over the past five years. This year there were 11. There could be 12 if Gentry Academy beats Hill-Murray in their semifinal, as PageStat has them rated higher than White Bear Lake and Stillwater.

Lee
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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Wed Mar 02, 2022 6:09 pm

PageStat's "upset" picks tonight:

4AA: (3) White Bear Lake over (2) Stillwater
1A: (4) New Prague over (3) Albert Lea
2A: (2) Delano over (1) Minneapolis
3A: (2) Mankato East over (1) New Ulm
4A: (3) Chisago Lakes over (2) Simley

PageStat is currently +3

Lee
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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:20 pm

PageStat is up +4 (hit New Prague and Mankato East, missed Delano). Two disagreements still in play as of right now, and only one disagreement tomorrow, giving PageStat another winning season.

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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Wed Mar 02, 2022 9:25 pm

White Bear Lake defeating Stillwater sends it to +5

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east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:17 pm

Chisago Lakes beats Simley in 2 OT. PageStat up +6 with only one disagreement left, tomorrow night's 5AA final between (2) Maple Grove and (1) Rogers

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Brodziak Fan Club
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by Brodziak Fan Club » Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:30 am

Hey Lee, thanks for this tremendous service you provide to high school hockey. I noticed on your website that your most recent ratings are updated through 2-18, which leaves out the last day of the regular season. Out of curiosity, do you have the "final" regular season ratings? It could also very well be that I'm missing something and they're posted elsewhere?

east hockey
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by east hockey » Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:04 pm

Brodziak Fan Club wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:30 am
Hey Lee, thanks for this tremendous service you provide to high school hockey. I noticed on your website that your most recent ratings are updated through 2-18, which leaves out the last day of the regular season. Out of curiosity, do you have the "final" regular season ratings? It could also very well be that I'm missing something and they're posted elsewhere?
I don't. The reason I cut off after Fridays games instead of Saturday's was because some section tournaments started on Saturday, so PageStats predictions would be based on the final day of play where only regular season games were being played. I've been doing it this way since about 2002 or so.

Lee
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Brodziak Fan Club
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Re: PageStat 2021-22

Post by Brodziak Fan Club » Thu Mar 03, 2022 1:13 pm

east hockey wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2022 12:04 pm
Brodziak Fan Club wrote:
Thu Mar 03, 2022 10:30 am
Hey Lee, thanks for this tremendous service you provide to high school hockey. I noticed on your website that your most recent ratings are updated through 2-18, which leaves out the last day of the regular season. Out of curiosity, do you have the "final" regular season ratings? It could also very well be that I'm missing something and they're posted elsewhere?
I don't. The reason I cut off after Fridays games instead of Saturday's was because some section tournaments started on Saturday, so PageStats predictions would be based on the final day of play where only regular season games were being played. I've been doing it this way since about 2002 or so.

Lee
Gotcha. Makes sense!

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