AA Rankings for 1/2/22

[karl(east)]

Embrace the chaos. This is the most wild, wide open season of AA high school hockey in my memory, and the holiday tournaments showed just how competitive so many sections will be. After a lot of big games among the top teams, many see their schedules relax a bit over the next few weeks. Will this allow top teams to separate themselves further, or are we in for a new wave of confusion?

1. Roseau (11-1) LW: 4
-The sheep are at the top of the heap at midseason. While their competition hasn’t been world class the past few weeks, they did handle a pretty good Mahtomedi team in their holiday tournament, and they are adding the style points with ease, racking up gaudy offensive numbers and looking formidable when few others are. Is this week’s entry the juiciest edition of the state’s greatest rivalry since they went to different classes?
This week: Tues vs. Warroad, Sat vs. Blake

2. Andover (9-2-1) LW: 3
-The Huskies looked primed to climb to number one after lockdown performances in wins over Cretin and Hill, but they fell flat against Rosemount. A pretty game-winner over Hill notwithstanding, the offensive output against better competition looks to be the biggest question mark, though there are much worse flaws to have, and this team is primed to be a very tough out every night. Their schedule now enters a bit of a lull.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Sat at Champlin Park

3. Cretin-Derham Hall (8-3) LW: 5
-The Raiders joined a lengthening list of teams that have been frustrated by Andover during their tournament in Bloomington; other than that, they took care of business. Wins over Benilde and Hermantown still make for a pretty solid foundation, and they’re passing the eye test with their skill; between that and their Benilde win, they continue to get some benefit of the doubt here. A big one at Braemar looms.
This week: Thurs at #5 Edina, Sat at Roseville

4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (7-4) LW: 9
-Three games, three one-goal wins for the Red Knights in their holiday tournament; in 2021-2022, that counts as a very solid week, particularly with the win over Maple Grove, so they win the draw here and slide up a little bit. Is it the start of something? Well, Edina is as good a test as any to determine that.
This week: Sat at #5 Edina

5. Edina (8-3) LW: 2
-When the Hornets are on their game, they can bury anyone, as they’ve shown in furious late surges against Maple Grove and Prior Lake and (to some degree) Lakeville South, or in thumping Grand Rapids. Player for player, I’d take their talent level over anyone else in AA. However, they also have long stretches, even in many of their wins, where they are not at that level at all. Whether it’s due to a lack of discipline or chemistry or something else, they do not look like the complete package yet. It gets no easier from here, with a gauntlet of private schools now under way.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Cretin-Derham Hall, Sat vs. #4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

6. Hill-Murray (8-3) LW: 6
-The Pioneers’ narrow loss to Andover isn’t really a source of shame, though with the exception of the St. Thomas game, their offense continues to plod against quality opponents. They should have no such struggles this week.
This week: Thurs at Tartan

7. Maple Grove (7-3-1) LW: 8
-Considering what other teams did, a 2-1 holiday tournament featuring a shutout of Lakeville South, a one-goal loss to Benilde, and a romp against St. Michael-Albertville isn’t too bad. The Crimson have the depth to roll with anyone; now, can they build any momentum and create any separation? A second win over Centennial this coming week might just about lock down the top seed in 5AA.
This week: Thurs at #15 Centennial, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

8. Lakeville South (9-2) LW: 1
-The Cougars played their first two top ten opponents over the past week, and despite having no trouble skating with Maple Grove and Edina, they mustered up just one goal in a pair of losses. The Holy Family win was a bit tight, but they also rolled past Stillwater, so that’s a wash, and they’ve won comfortably against everyone else. They head back into conference play for their only action this week.
This week: Sat vs. Eagan

9. Wayzata (6-4-1) LW: 7
-Just when it looked like this team was a safe bet, amid all the chaos, they go and lose to Rogers. Trojans will be Trojans, I suppose; I still like their makeup, and unlike in some seasons, they don’t seem to go through offensive power outages. It’ll be telling to see if they can plow on through their next two weeks, which do not involve current top 15 opponents.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at Minnetonka

10. Moorhead (8-5) LW: NR
-I don’t think any team did more for itself over the holidays than the Spuds, who rattled off consecutive wins against Edina, St. Thomas, and Prior Lake. They did it in different ways, outdueling Edina in a defensive contest and pulling out a shootout against St. Thomas before surviving a Laker onslaught. All of this is a good sign after the very inconsistent start. Like a few other teams, their schedule is, on paper, a bit of a respite over the next couple weeks.
This week: Tues vs. Brainerd, Sat vs. St. Cloud

11. Grand Rapids (9-3) LW: 11
-The Thunderhawks picked up a solid win over Minnetonka and continue to knock on the door of the top ten. They aren’t going to bulldoze other good teams, but they are going to keep coming and wear them down, and they can play good defense when they need to. The next few weeks are probably the easiest stretch on their schedule.
This week: Thurs vs. Duluth East

12. St. Thomas Academy (6-5) LW: 13
-With two wins over Cretin, a win over Edina, and a drubbing of Eden Prairie, the Cadets have made it clear they have the pieces to go on a serious run. The consistency, however, just has not been there, with the Moorhead loss being the latest wasted opportunity to really make a statement. Conference action awaits them this week; can they do any better against Ben Dardis the second time around?
This week: Thurs vs. South Sat Paul, Sat vs. Mahtomedi

13. Eden Prairie (6-5) LW: 14
-The Eagles got humbled by St. Thomas, but they responded with two wins to round out their time in the Hockey for Life, including a valuable section win over Chaska. Prior Lake is up this week, and a win in that one puts them in the driver’s seat for the top seed, which, considering where they started this season, is not a bad place to be. They also make a tough road trip up north after that.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat at Hermantown

14. Rogers (6-5-1) LW: NR
-The Royals acquitted themselves pretty well in St. Louis Park, staying within one goal of host Benilde and knocking off a Wayzata team that had otherwise been rolling along. This week’s game with St. Michael-Albertville doesn’t have quite as much juice as in past seasons due to their section move, but it still will tell us some things of note for rankings.
This week: Tues vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at Totino-Grace

15. Centennial (7-2) LW: 10
-Okay, Cougars, I need you to explain that Champlin loss to me. How does a team that had been rolling along give up eight? It’s a bit of a wrench for seeding, though with a season split and a far better résumé they still should be fine. A rematch with Maple Grove will tell us more about this group.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Maple Grove, Sat at Anoka

The Next Ten

Eastview (6-2)
-The Lightning just sat and watched the world burn around them this past week; they drop out of the top 15 through no fault of their own. I think we’ll have a much better handle on how real they are after this coming week, in which they face Shakopee, Minnetonka, and Rosemount.

Lakeville North (6-2)
-The Panthers climb the table after a 3-0 showing the Hockey for Life Tournament. None of the wins were earth-shattering, given Prior Lake and Chaska’s broader struggles, but they seem to be finding a groove. They’ve got a busy week ahead of them, with Mahtomedi posing the most interesting test.
This week: Tues at Holy Family, Thurs at Mahtomedi, Sat at Burnsville

Rosemount (5-4)
-The Irish turned some heads with a win over Andover, and have also beaten Prior Lake this season, while all of their losses are to good teams. The week ahead will be telling, as they face Delano and then square off with Eastview in a game with some real 3AA implications.

Stillwater (6-3)
-The Ponies’ St. Louis Park showing didn’t really alter their standing here. They beat the team they should have beaten, and went one-for-two in their efforts to be competitive in losses to top teams. They head north this week for Cloquet and Duluth East.

Minnetonka (6-4-1)
-The Skippers didn’t muster much against Grand Rapids and continue to hover here, though they can’t be complaining about what some of the teams in their section are doing. They have a chance to gain some ground against Eastview and Wayzata this week.

Elk River (7-4)
-Made short work of Brainerd in their only action last week. St. Michael-Albertville is their closest thing to a quality win, but all of their wins have been by three or more goals, and they’ve been competitive in losses to good teams. Sartell and Champlin are up this week.

Blaine (4-3-3)
-In a busy week of 7AA action, the Bengals beat Forest Lake but couldn’t finish off Duluth East. That holds them steady here, as they are consistently competitive and have some respectable results, including the Stillwater win and ties to Maple Grove and Rogers. (If only there were still in 5AA!) They should be able to collect some wins now, beginning with Armstrong/Cooper and Osseo this week.

Chaska (7-4)
-This final section of the rankings features a bunch of teams whose shine is fading, and the Hawks are in that category after an 0-3 Hockey for Life. The Totino-Grace loss was the most glaring blemish, but they hurt themselves in 2AA with a loss to Eden Prairie, and the Lakeville North loss certainly didn’t help the ranking, either. They launch into conference play now, which should help them win games; Eastview and a pair of battles with Benilde are their only top 25 games remaining.

Gentry Academy (7-2)
-A one-goal win over Alexandria and a lopsided loss to a Hudson team they’d previously beaten have the Stars barely clinging to relevance here. They face one of their best Minnesota opponents of the season, East Grand Forks, this coming week.

Prior Lake (4-6)
-I’m not sure the Lakers deserve a top 25 spot, but I put them here because we have to talk about them. Upon repeated viewings, they clearly have top ten talent; they can absolutely fly, their senior forward corps is as good as any, and the blue line isn’t devoid of skill, either. Given all of that, it is mind-boggling that this team’s power play is firing along at 5%, and how easily they appear to crumble under pressure. Can they turn the page any against Eden Prairie—or, for that matter, Shakopee—this coming week?

And now, sections:

1AA
8 Lakeville South
17 Lakeville North
Hastings
Rochester Mayo
-No real movement here the past two weeks, with the second Battle of Lakeville still a month off. Hastings (who was the first team off the top 25) and Mayo, who won their respective holiday tournaments, are separating themselves from the rest to round out the top four seeds, but have more work to do to prove they belong in the conversation with the Lakevilles. Those two will meet in mid-January.

2AA
13 Eden Prairie
25 Prior Lake
20 Minnetonka
23 Chaska
-Hello? Hello? Does anyone actually want to win this section? The fact that Prior Lake could practically lock up the top seed with a win over Eden Prairie this week, in spite of everything else that has gone on for them this season, just goes to show how flat it’s been. The order is pretty straightforward at the moment, with Minnetonka losing to Prior Lake but beating Chaska, but there’s plenty of time to mess with that here yet, most notably in the two Lake battles. And these teams have been collectively mediocre enough that I’m not counting out the chase pack yet, either.

3AA
16 Eastview
12 St. Thomas Academy
3 Cretin-Derham Hall
18 Rosemount
-This is another section that is wacky to seed right now, with two new teams crashing what we thought would be a two-horse race. One would guess that Eastview will come back down to earth over time, but for now, they do have that all-important win over St. Thomas, while Cretin’s two losses to the Cadets have put them in a bind. Rosemount has also shown it’s not irrelevant; if they can knock off Andover, they can knock off St. Thomas or Cretin. We’ll see how this one continues to evolve, with this week’s Eastview-Rosemount game having the most immediate impact.

4AA
6 Hill-Murray
19 Stillwater
White Bear Lake
24 Gentry Academy
-Unlike the past two, this one is pretty easy right now, and unlikely to change before Hill and Stillwater meet in the middle of the month. Gentry’s stock has probably been irreparably damaged; I don’t see them making the top two now, and it may be fair to ask if the coaches will drop them even further in the seeding. The Stars will probably have to earn any respect the hard way.

5AA
7 Maple Grove
15 Rogers
14 Centennial
Champlin Park
-Champlin’s win over Centennial probably isn’t enough to get the Rebels more than a 4-seed, but it does at least serve some notice and at least temporarily slide Rogers up to the second spot and really complicate any path the Cougars had to the top seed. Centennial-Maple Grove and Rogers-Centennial games are both on the horizon, so stay tuned for more.

6AA
5 Edina
8 Wayzata
4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Holy Angels
-Unless Wayzata sweeps their remaining meetings with Edina, this one may be close to done. The seeding order may be clear, but how they all measure up relative to one another will certainly continue to evolve regularly. I still prefer Holy Angels for the 4-seed right now.

7AA
2 Andover
11 Grand Rapids
22 Blaine
Forest Lake
-The news here is Blaine beating Forest Lake and tying Duluth East. Under a coaches’ vote system that would just about lock in those three teams in that order, but we’re still a little ways away from it even being worth looking at QRF to see what it will emit. We wait on the big two for their meeting in February.

8AA
1 Roseau
10 Moorhead
21 Elk River
St. Michael-Albertville
-The 8AA final is looking like it may be worth a road trip this year. The Elks continue to play like a quality 3-seed, and STMA has taken steps to secure the 4-seed, too. I don’t expect change to this order unless Moorhead goes on a good run and wins the Roseau rematch in February.

[RoseauHockeyFan]

Thanks for the work you put into your rankings Karl. I always look forward to reading them each week.

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Karl, thanks as always for a great Sunday read. You are doing an excellent job of putting a topsy turvy season into perspective. The "we have to talk about Prior Lake" comment made me laugh out loud. Like parents who need to discuss their talented, underachieving offspring.

[raidergrad72]

What I always find interesting about your rankings, Karl, is not only just for the content, but that they read like several chapters in a book titled AA Rankings.
Well done and knowledgeable as always.

[thefatcat]

I'm not sold on BSM just yet...beat Rogers on a 5v3 in OT after a questionable call and then the Rogers coach losing his mind resulting in a bench minor, 5v5 Rogers gave them all they could handle. Beat Maple Grove with 0.03 seconds laugh on a 5v3, MG was their own worst enemy down the stretch in that game. A blah Stillwater team gave them everything they could handle. But like Karl says...Edina will be a true test for them this week, should be a good game.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Pretty odd to see the #3 and #4 teams in the state both sitting at the 3-seed in their respective sections

Things will flesh themselves out as section and common foe games are played. Still strange to see.

[SEC Scotty]

I'm not sold on BSM just yet...beat Rogers on a 5v3 in OT after a questionable call and then the Rogers coach losing his mind resulting in a bench minor, 5v5 Rogers gave them all they could handle. Beat Maple Grove with 0.03 seconds laugh on a 5v3, MG was their own worst enemy down the stretch in that game. A blah Stillwater team gave them everything they could handle. But like Karl says...Edina will be a true test for them this week, should be a good game.

I agree with all of this post. Maple Grove shot themselves in the foot taking two stupid penalties late. What I've seen from Stillwater not sure they belong in the top 20. BSM's defense led by Yakesh and Sarsland are top notch, not sure their younger forwards will be able to be as affective against bigger stronger teams. We will see. Still haven't seen Edina this year in person. Maybe Saturday.

Was a pretty sweet paly by Sarsland with .03 left though. Was right on the goal line for that one.