AA Rankings for 2/6/22

[karl(east)]

The clock is winding down on the regular season, as just two weeks separate us from playoff hockey. The same teams continue to circulate near the top, but don’t really do anything to separate themselves. It’s promising to be as open a race in AA memory, with no foregone conclusions in any section and a Tourney that is likely to feature four solid quarterfinals with few easy passes. For now, rankings:

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-3) LW: 1
-A 1-0 win over Eden Prairie leaves the Raiders’ purchase on the top spot as thin as it’s been since they reclaimed it over a month ago. The question all along has been whether their lack of tests in battle would be a problem come the postseason, and that first return leaves more than its share of doubts. Assuming they don’t lose badly to Stillwater this week, they will play the other Suburban East division winner in a newly established conference championship of sorts on Saturday.
This week: Tues vs. Park (Cottage Grove), Thurs vs. Stillwater, Sat SEC Championship

2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (16-4) LW: 2
-It was a week of stat-padding for the Red Knights. The conference competition gets a little more interesting this week; the Chaska game was a one-goal affair the first time around. It’s their last test of any serious measure in the regular season.
This week: Tues vs. Orono, Sat vs. Chaska

3. Andover (18-3-1) LW: 5
-The Huskies climb two spots after a solid week against two of their better conference opponents, Blaine and Centennial. They’ve probably done enough to secure the top seed in 7AA no matter what happens in the Rapids game this week, but it will certainly matter for framing the race atop this section, and a regular season close-out against Maple Grove on Saturday is a chance for a final exclamation point on a great run through the Northwest Suburban.
This week: Tues at #10 Grand Rapids, Thurs at Coon Rapids, Sat vs. #5 Maple Grove

4. Hill-Murray (16-4-1) LW: 3
-The Pioneers split with Edina, which isn’t horrible for a tough home-and-home, but despite their great record I don’t really get the sense that they’re peaking at the moment the way I have with some past Hill teams that have gone on great runs. This week is relatively easy one before a tough final push.
This week: Tues at South St. Paul, Sat at Blake

5. Maple Grove (16-5-1) LW: 6
-The Crimson didn’t wow in wins over St. Thomas and Stillwater, but they did get the job done, which is enough for now here. This team still seems like it’s sitting on the fence: does it belong amid the elite contenders right above them here, or are they back in the muddle behind? Their game with Andover this week will be as good a test as any on that front.
This week: Thurs at Armstrong/Cooper, Sat at #3 Andover

6. Roseau (18-3) LW: 7
-The Rams had an alright showing against Bemidji before handing East Grand Forks a beatdown. Centennial this coming week gives them one last metro test of the regular season, though they can’t totally overlook a pesky Thief team.
This week: Tues vs. Thief River Falls, Fri vs. #13 Centennial

7. Moorhead (16-5-1) LW: 8
-The Spuds asserted themselves with a win over Rogers that was never in doubt, running their streak to 13 straight games without a defeat. That run will face two great tests in their final three games of the regular season, but their game this week is not one of them.
This week: Tues at Bemidji

8. Lakeville South (16-3) LW: 10
-The Cougars took care of Shakopee in their only action. They’ve got a three-game week up now, but shouldn’t break too much of a sweat in a home-and-home with Eagan (including a make-up of a postponed game) and Farmington.
This week: Tues at Eagan, Thurs vs. Eagan, Sat vs. Farmington

9. Edina (13-8) LW: 9
-The Hornets’ split with Hill is an improvement on recent years, if nothing else; the win was a necessary turn after some recent struggles, but alone isn’t going to lift them much higher. They could use some consistency down the stretch to prove their performance really can match the heights they’ve shown at times this season.
This week: Thurs at Buffalo, Sat vs. #15 Minnetonka

10. Grand Rapids (16-5-1) LW: 13
-While the Thunderhawks have taken some lumps down the stretch, none have really been bad, and the Wayzata win is their most impressive result on the season. I’ve been a bit of a skeptic on this group all along, but that narrative can turn if they build some momentum through this challenging close to their regular season. Just what exactly is the state of the race in 7AA? We’ll learn on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs. #3 Andover, Fri vs. St. Thomas Academy

11. Wayzata (13-7-1) LW: 4
-Trojans will be Trojans: just after they had me believing they were rolling into form, the Trojans had a rough week, falling to Minnetonka for a second time and falling to Grand Rapids as well. It may end up hurting their odds at the top seed in 6AA. For now, though, all they can do is restore some order and take care of Eden Prairie.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. #14 Eden Prairie

12. Rogers (15-7-1) LW: 11
-A lopsided loss to Moorhead slows the Royals’ momentum some, and while this has been a banner year for a program, they will need playoff success to crack the top ten. Just one game this week.
This week: Sat vs. Duluth East

13. Centennial (15-4-1) LW: 12
-The Cougars got handled by Andover, which leaves me more and more certain that, despite the gaudy record, they are not quite a top ten team; a split with Maple Grove is all they’ve really got for quality wins. They have a busy close to the season, including a long road trip this coming weekend.
This week: Tues at Blaine, Fri at #6 Roseau, Sat at Brainerd

14. Eden Prairie (12-9) LW: 14
-The Eagles’ remarkably stable position here continues, though it came in unexpected ways, as they lost a game they perhaps should not have against Mahtomedi but gave Cretin an excellent game on Saturday. If nothing else, they are very battle-tested, and while the talent level isn’t elite, they can skate with pretty much anyone.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at #11 Wayzata

15. Minnetonka (13-8-1) LW: NR
-The Skippers had a quality week punctuated by a second win over Wayzata. I would say pulling out two tough section wins (and no total cakewalk of a quarterfinal, either) is a tall order, but 2AA’s top end is weak enough that their odds aren’t that much worse than anyone else’s. Just one game this week, but it is, as always, a useful bellwether when the Skippers face off with Edina.
This week: Sat at #9 Edina

The Next Ten

Stillwater (15-6-1)
-Respectable week against tougher competition for the Ponies, who tied St. Thomas and were up on Maple Grove by three before the horseshoes fell off. They get a second shot to give top-ranked Cretin a game this week.

St. Thomas Academy (12-10-1)
-The Cadet confusion continues: They had a rough go against Stillwater before at least salvaging a tie, while they played a good Maple Grove team pretty evenly. At this point it would seem they are what they are, which is a team capable of beating just about anyone but probably incapable of stringing together several playoff wins in a row. They close out their regular season with a tough road trip north.

Prior Lake (13-9)
-The Lakers handled two teams that had beaten them earlier in the season, including an eye-opening 7-2 win over Lakeville North. Two quality results against good-but-not-great competition can’t undo a season-long roller coaster, but they are a step in the right direction. Shakopee is their only opponent this coming week.

Chaska (15-5)
-Continued respectability for the Hawks, who picked up decent wins over Eastview and St. Louis Park. They get one last shot to boost their standing heading into sections when they take their second crack at Benilde.

Gentry Academy (15-3)
-The Stars put Holy Family in running time, which is a good showing against a respectable opponent. The week ahead is their most interesting one of the season, as they have four games, including a good Class A team in Minneapolis, a second crack at their best Minnesota opponent this season (Lakeville North), and a rubber match with Hudson, Wisconsin.

Lakeville North (14-5)
-Trending in the wrong direction after the loss to Prior Lake. A win in the rematch with Gentry would be a nice boost, and they have respectable Eastview up this week too.

Elk River (15-7-1)
-There’s nothing too fancy here, but the Elks do keep winning games. Mounds View and Blaine round out the regular season for the likely 3-seed in 8AA.

Champlin Park (11-7-1)
-Took care of business against Spring Lake Park. The week ahead includes Duluth East and matchup with Hastings that is sure to thrill any close follower of the 20-25 spots in the rankings.

Hastings (18-2-1)
-Just keeps winning. They’ve won 14 in a row, a stretch that does include a win over Mahtomedi, but this week’s Champlin game will be their toughest AA test since a rough loss to St. Thomas Academy in mid-December.

Holy Angels (17-3-1)
-Barely beating Osseo is meh, but the Stars are still on enough of a run to stay in the top 25. Buffalo could be a mildly interesting opponent this week.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Thanks Karl - hard to argue with your order of the top 10. Best part of my Sunday morning is your rankings.

Hard to say whether Hill is peaking in their typical late season manner. Prior to last night's tilt Hill had only lost 1 of their previous 17 games (an OT loss to Andover), including a 10 game unbeaten streak that saw them top Mahtomedi, Stillwater in running time, Tonka, STA & Edina. Games against #5 and #7 to close the year will be interesting in seeing exactly where Hill is.

Potentially two semi-difficult section games have me a bit nervous so it'd be nice to see Hill play well in those last two regular season games. Gentry is an unknown, WBL inevitably plays Hill tough, and Stillwater seems to be able to hang with anyone. Should make for some fun end of year and section games.

[northwoods oldtimer]

That Tuesday tilt of Andover at Rapidly Declining looks to be a good one for the week.

Hey Karl can the Hounds pull off an upset spoiler come section playoffs?

Looking at the QRF 7AA who and what is "Northern Edge"? Never heard of the school.

Give Hastings some love LOL!

[elliott70]

That Tuesday tilt of Andover at Rapidly Declining looks to be a good one for the week.

Hey Karl can the Hounds pull off an upset spoiler come section playoffs?

Looking at the QRF 7AA who and what is "Northern Edge"? Never heard of the school.

Give Hastings some love LOL!

St. Francis and North Branch

[stpaul]

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-3) LW: 1
-A 1-0 win over Eden Prairie leaves the Raiders’ purchase on the top spot as thin as it’s been...

Are you telling us that you take bribes to award #1 rankings? Seems a bit unethical. Perhaps the HM crowd here can pool our money for a #1 ranking next week. It will be cash in an envelope left under the Aldrich Arena welcome mat.

Or did autocorrect get you?

Also: The SEC has divisions?

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Great work as always, Karl.

matchup with Hastings that is sure to thrill any close follower of the 20-25 spots in the rankings.

This made me laugh.

Prior Lake seems to have stabilized the ship (yacht?) and have it pointed in the right direction. Will be interesting to see if they make it through the 2AA heap after all.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Yeah, what's up with SEC divisions? Last night I got curious about the 2 - 3 - 4 seeds in 4AA, so I looked up Stillwater and White Bear. I was surprised to see they only play each other once. It was early in December, so it doesn't mean much (to me) as far as section implications. They've been among the top 3 teams in the conference the past several years, so that just doesn't make any sense.

What would make sense is for Stillwater, White Bear, and Cre-tine to play each other three times, with each game worth 2 points. Then they all play the dregs once, with that game worth 6 points in conference standings. Come to think of it.

Hockey Hub is apparently unaware of the divisions, they list all ten teams as a single unit.

Back in the day, the two city conference champions met, and it was a relevant game up until the early 80's. The old North Suburban and Saint Paul Suburban champions also met. I thought it was a good way to get an extra game against good competition, beyond the MSHSL permitted maximum.

I did see the 4AA semis will be on Wednesday in a single session. Has that been the practice the last few years?