AA Rankings for 2/13/22

[karl(east)]

Here we go: it’s the last week of the regular season, and rarely has there been so much opportunity for movement in this last week.

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (21-3) LW: 1
-The Raiders kept rolling along, and their consistency down the stretch has been admirable, even if the schedule has not been thrilling: this season, that is enough to lock in a team in the top spot, even if the gap between them and the rest is not large. If they win their game this week, they’ll ride into sections on a 16-game streak.
This week: Tues at Park (Cottage Grove)

2. Hill-Murray (18-4-1) LW: 3
-The Pioneer plod on after comfortable wins over South St. Paul and Blake. The final week of the regular season will bring the heat in the form of two potent teams nipping at their heels in the rankings. We’ll see if these games bring any clarity.
This week: Wed vs. #3 Maple Grove, Sat at #6 Moorhead

3. Maple Grove (18-5-1) LW: 5
-The Crimson’s strong push to the finish continued with a convincing performance against Andover. This feels like a reach, but who else has a better claim here at this point? I’m high on this team, and if they can cap their late-season performance by doing anything against Hill, they will be well-positioned for a potential deep run.
This week: Wed at #2 Hill-Murray

4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (17-5) LW: 2
-A loss to Chaska after a long romp through the easy part of the schedule sows some doubts about the Red Knights. They haven’t dropped too much here due to their body of work, but could slide back a bit further before sections pending some of the results this coming week. They have a busy but not overly challenging final week, with the Champlin game in the middle being the most interesting of the bunch.
This week: Tues vs. Chanhassen, Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. New Prague

5. Roseau (19-3-1) LW: 6
-The Rams thumped Thief River Falls before a tie to Centennial, which isn’t a bad result but does keep them from climbing here. There have been a few question marks over the past month, but it will all come to a head when they meet streaking Moorhead. Can they hold up in back well enough to claim the top seed ahead of an impending section final rematch?
This week: Tues vs. #6 Moorhead, Sat vs. East Grand Forks

6. Moorhead (17-5-1) LW: 7
-The Spuds rolled past Bemidji this past week. This last week, now, will be huge for their ranking heading into sections, as they battle Roseau for the top seed in 8AA and have their regular clash with Hill-Murray to wrap things up. Two wins and they’re a top five team; two losses and they’re mired in the muck below. Can the unbeaten streak hold up?
This week: Tues at #5 Roseau, Sat vs. #2 Hill-Murray

7. Grand Rapids (18-5-1) LW: 10
-Here come the Thunderhawks? A heavy performance and some last-second heroics against Andover have the Halloween Machine pegged as the team to beat in 7AA, whatever QRF might say, and they followed that with a win over St. Thomas. Maple Grove hiccup aside, they’ve been impressive in just about every game since the new year, and are playing their way into strong seeding position should they go to State. A victory over Hermantown to wrap the regular season would be the cherry on top.
This week: Tues vs. Hermantown

8. Andover (19-5-1) LW: 4
-The Huskies are not ending their regular season on a high note, as they struggled to match the intensity of their chief rival for the 7AA crown and then got bowled over by Maple Grove. They’d been in the top five since mid-December, but there were some red flags all along, and they will not end there before the playoffs.
This week: Idle

9. Lakeville South (19-3) LW: 8
-The schedule has not been challenging over the past month-plus, but the Cougars continue to do what they need to do. They have a busy final week that could put a nice seal on this run, as they face two teams capable of upsets (one of which has already clipped them this season) and the closest team to them in talent in the section.
This week: Tues at Rosemount, Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Prior Lake

10. Edina (15-8) LW: 9
-While not flashy, the Hornets plowed forward with wins over Buffalo and Minnetonka. Are they finding some steadiness after some wild swings earlier in the season? Or are they just finding a good-but-not-great level? The season finale with Wayzata has some pretty high stakes in the section.
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at #11 Wayzata

11. Wayzata (15-7-1) LW: 11
-The Trojans found some winning ways again this past week, most notably by finishing off Eden Prairie for a second time. Despite the ups and downs, I still think this is one of the more dangerous teams out there, and Benilde’s loss to Chaska has re-opened the door for the all-important top seed in 6AA if they can beat Edina a second time.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat vs. #10 Edina

12. Rogers (16-7-1) LW: 13
-Pasted Duluth East in their only action. Now, can they top off a promising season with a move to set themselves up for their run through sections?
This week: Tues at #13 Centennial

13. Centennial (16-4-3) LW: 12
-The Cougars collected a couple of ties this past week, each pulling them in opposite directions: knotting up with a Blaine team that they put in running time just two weeks before is not great, but they held up well enough on a road trip to Roseau to make this all a wash. Seeding is on the line in 5AA in their first game this week, and the closer isn’t a guarantee, either.
This week: Tues vs. #12 Rogers, Thurs at White Bear Lake

14. Eden Prairie (13-10)
-The ever-consistent baseline in these rankings kept up its usual beat, beating St. Michael-Albertville and losing to Wayzata. A clash with Minnetonka for a top 15 spot highlights their final week.
This week: Thurs at Minnetonka, Sat at Buffalo

15. Chaska (18-5) LW: NR
-A late-season flourish from the Hawks launches them into the top 15 and shows they can compete with anyone. It’s hard to know how much stock to put in this for ranking purposes, since no one has really separated themselves this season; it might just be one pleasant burst amid an otherwise pretty easy schedule down the stretch. In this season’s 2AA, though, it is a result that puts everyone else on notice. They should finish out their regular season with 20 wins.
This week: Tues vs Waconia, Sat at Orono

The Next Ten

Minnetonka (13-9-1)
-The Skippers fought valiantly against Edina but fell again, keeping them on the outside looking in of the top 15. They get a chance to improve on this somewhat against Eden Prairie.

St. Thomas Academy (12-12-1)
-The Cadets were competitive on a road trip north to face Grand Rapids and Hermantown, but came up short in both, which leaves them hovering on the outside looking in, a capable squad that lacks any obvious edge to set them above the teams ahead of them. Their regular season is done.

Prior Lake (14-9)
-Dispatched of Shakopee in their only game last week. The season-closer against Lakeville South will be a big one: is this team finally finding itself?

Stillwater (16-7-1)
-A one-goal win over Roseville inspires little confidence in the Ponies, who also lost to Cretin. Holy Family awaits in their final game.

Gentry Academy (18-4)
-The Stars had a decent week, punctuated by a big win over their toughest regular season, Lakeville North. They also dropped their rubber match with Hudson, though, and struggled to put away Minneapolis; they just give up too many goals to inspire confidence in pushing them too much higher. Their final week is busy as well, as they face Minneapolis again and play a home-and-home with Blake.

Elk River (17-7-1)
-Closed out their regular season with a solid win over Blaine. They are the clear 3-seed in 8AA and will now await to learn their potential semifinal road trip destination.

Champlin Park (14-7-1)
-Rolled to three more wins, including a decent one in these parts of the rankings over Hastings. A tough final week includes White Bear and Benilde, so they can certainly earn their keep here.

Holy Angels (19-3-1)
-Continue to roll through softer competition. They now conclude with Breck and Armstrong/Cooper.

Lakeville North (16-6)
-Trending in the wrong direction after a loss to Gentry, their second by a lopsided score to a 15-20ish team in the past two weeks. The game with Hastings this week suddenly takes on added meaning in the 1AA seeding race.

Hastings (19-3-1)
-I don’t love this, but when then next-best option here is a floundering Blaine team, I’ll stick with the team with the good record. The Lakeville North game this week will be telling; for that matter, they need to take care of Dodge County, too.

And, with one week to go, sections!

1AA
9 Lakeville South
24 Lakeville North
25 Hastings
Rochester Mayo
-With North fading some down the stretch, this week’s Hastings-North game has taken on new meaning, and the two-seed is there for the Raiders’ taking. Mayo, despite the Century loss this past week, has probably done enough to claim the 4-seed.

2AA
14 Eden Prairie
18 Prior Lake
16 Minnetonka
15 Chaska
-The seeding order has been set here for a bit, but there is plenty of intrigue, with a wide open likely final four between four capable but flawed teams. This week’s Minnetonka-Eden Prairie clash, while unlikely to change anything in the seeding, will at least set the table for us.

3AA
1 Cretin-Derham Hall
17 St. Thomas Academy
Eastview
Rosemount
-With a win in the rematch with Rosemount, Eastview now has a good claim to the 3-seed, though both of these teams have faded some since they looked like more serious upset threats around midseason. They remain in the picture, though, and there are plausible arguments for different orders here based on head-to-head results, though I don’t really buy them. At the end of the day, the road here runs through Cretin.

4AA
2 Hill-Murray
19 Stillwater
20 Gentry Academy
White Bear Lake
-The only question here is where the coaches slot in Gentry, which is playing decently but has its wild card schedule. I would put them at the 3-seed, which sets up a potential Hill-White Bear semifinal, but would not be shocked to see them at 4. As in 3AA, this section has a clear favorite, but there’s enough talent 2-4 that it could get weird.

5AA
12 Rogers
3 Maple Grove
13 Centennial
22 Champlin Park
-This has become one of the more oddly complex sections to seed. Right now, Rogers is 1-0 against the big three, having beaten Maple Grove, while Centennial and Maple Grove split; the tiebreak there is Centennial’s loss to Champlin Park, putting Maple Grove in line for the 2-seed. A Rogers win over Centennial this week would probably lock in this order. A Centennial win, on the other hand, results in chaos; in that situation, I’d put Maple Grove at the top on the basis of body of work, with Centennial second and Rogers third. Champlin, meanwhile, lurks as a dangerous 4-seed.

6AA
4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
10 Edina
11 Wayzata
23 Holy Angels
-Benilde’s loss to Chaska forfeits any claim they may have to being on a higher tier than their Lake rivals. If Wayzata wins on Saturday, they should be the top seed; if the Hornets pull it out, I’d lean their way, and the loser will get the 3-seed. If they tie, shrug and give the top spot to Benilde.

7AA
8 Andover
7 Grand Rapids
Blaine
Forest Lake
-Grand Rapids should be the top seed in this section, but the QRF gap may be too large for this past week’s game to matter. It’s almost as if using a stupid formula is a bad way to seed a section, but hey, they never asked me. Beyond that, it’s pretty straightforward for the top four, and we’ll see what the formula spits out for the muck of mediocrity behind.

8AA
5 Roseau
6 Moorhead
21 Elk River
Buffalo
-The story is simple here: the winner of this week’s game takes the top seed. The gap in this section is large enough that it may not make a huge deal either way, but the result will certainly send a signal.

[Sparlimb]

Gentry will be #3 in 4AA. WBL is barely above .500 on the year. I don't see any section that looks like a foregone conclusion. I think I say this every year, but I'm wondering if this is Moorhead's year. They have had another good season and with two wins this week could have a lot of momentum entering sections. I also like Rapids and think they will come out of 7AA. They have scorers which matters in the playoffs.

I'd sure like to see Prior Lake or Chaska come out of 2AA. That section is unusually weaker than most years.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Karl, you help make Minnesota winters very tolerable, thanks for all the time you put in covering HS hockey and the great job you do with the weekly rankings!

[WestMetro]

Nice work as usual ! It’ll be a crazy end to the regular season

( i think the LVS game at PL is Friday not Saturday )

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Karl, you help make Minnesota winters very tolerable, thanks for all the time you put in covering HS hockey and the great job you do with the weekly rankings!

Seconded.

My jottings this week:
2AA! Will relative mediocrity lead to parity and excitement? Any of those top 4 could find their way to state. Seeds 5-7 are all legitimate 1st round upset threats.

Perpetual #14 Eden Prairie is also #14 in PageStat

To piggyback on Karl's (and everyone's) disdain for QRF: Gentry is currently the #1 team in 4AA based on those rankings. Yikes. I'd like to get people's thoughts on using Pagestat for section seeds. Would this ever happen in a million years?? It's obviously more accurate than QRF and probably more accurate than the coaches, but... would we miss the human element?

[Sparlimb]

Karl, you help make Minnesota winters very tolerable, thanks for all the time you put in covering HS hockey and the great job you do with the weekly rankings!

Seconded.

My jottings this week:
2AA! Will relative mediocrity lead to parity and excitement? Any of those top 4 could find their way to state. Seeds 5-7 are all legitimate 1st round upset threats.

Perpetual #14 Eden Prairie is also #14 in PageStat

To piggyback on Karl's (and everyone's) disdain for QRF: Gentry is currently the #1 team in 4AA based on those rankings. Yikes. I'd like to get people's thoughts on using Pagestat for section seeds. Would this ever happen in a million years?? It's obviously more accurate than QRF and probably more accurate than the coaches, but... would we miss the human element?

QRF removed Gentry's games against out of state teams, meaning 3 of their 4 losses (and therefore giving them a 16-1 record which I'm sure is why they are rated so high). I'm not a fan of QRF at all. It rewards you for a perfect record. So you could play a southwest MN cupcake 24 times in a row, win all 24 and be the top rated team in state. I have no idea why 7AA is using it. I think the coaches did just fine.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Karl, you help make Minnesota winters very tolerable, thanks for all the time you put in covering HS hockey and the great job you do with the weekly rankings!

Seconded.

My jottings this week:
2AA! Will relative mediocrity lead to parity and excitement? Any of those top 4 could find their way to state. Seeds 5-7 are all legitimate 1st round upset threats.

Perpetual #14 Eden Prairie is also #14 in PageStat

To piggyback on Karl's (and everyone's) disdain for QRF: Gentry is currently the #1 team in 4AA based on those rankings. Yikes. I'd like to get people's thoughts on using Pagestat for section seeds. Would this ever happen in a million years?? It's obviously more accurate than QRF and probably more accurate than the coaches, but... would we miss the human element?

QRF removed Gentry's games against out of state teams, meaning 3 of their 4 losses (and therefore giving them a 16-1 record which I'm sure is why they are rated so high). I'm not a fan of QRF at all. It rewards you for a perfect record. So you could play a southwest MN cupcake 24 times in a row, win all 24 and be the top rated team in state. I have no idea why 7AA is using it. I think the coaches did just fine.

Hey hey now! There are plenty of cupcakes outside of SW Minn! It's time you show a little disrespect for them, too.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Were I Cre-tine backer, I'd be very nervous to show up at the X with 20 game win streak full of less than stellar opponents. That's just not a good formula. That's not to say anyone should be surprised to see them in the final, but it doesn't bode well based on history. Their virtual lack of state tournament experience doesn't help. Benilde's schedule down the stretch has been soft, but their recent loss gives them a walk up call, the kind kids need when they've been on a win streak.

The 4AA/Gentry situation is interesting. It makes for good chatter, but in the end it doesn't matter a lot. The 2 - 4 seeds will all be fairly equal. You can meet HM in the semis or in the final, either way you need to beat them sometime. I don't see the 4 seed have legitimate grounds for saying they got screwed.

I can see 3 or 4 teams with a good chance to win the state championship, and a few that would be a surprise but not a shocker. And a championship game appearance by EP or Rogers would not be shocking.

I hope the LPH rankings hold greater sway than Karl's. I prefer my Pioneers to come in at the 4 seed, or 3 or 5. Hopefully Cre-tine dispatches Park and their section opponents, they can have the #1 seed.

[mnpuckster]

Gentry will be #3 in 4AA. WBL is barely above .500 on the year. I don't see any section that looks like a foregone conclusion. I think I say this every year, but I'm wondering if this is Moorhead's year. They have had another good season and with two wins this week could have a lot of momentum entering sections. I also like Rapids and think they will come out of 7AA. They have scorers which matters in the playoffs.

I'd sure like to see Prior Lake or Chaska come out of 2AA. That section is unusually weaker than most years.

WBL is 13-8. Gentry plays a remarkably soft .schedule mixed in with a couple good Wisco teams. Maybe the softest in AA metro schools? I don't think 3 seed for Gentry is a lock. I think 4AA coaches could easily slide them in at 4 sees giving them HM in semis. Gentry gives up half dozen goals per game to some very average teams. HM and WBL/SW should also be on opposite sides of bracket for entertainment as well. No one would care about a HM Gentry section final. Might as well play it sans fans if that occurs

[inthetwine]

Gentry will be #3 in 4AA. WBL is barely above .500 on the year. I don't see any section that looks like a foregone conclusion. I think I say this every year, but I'm wondering if this is Moorhead's year. They have had another good season and with two wins this week could have a lot of momentum entering sections. I also like Rapids and think they will come out of 7AA. They have scorers which matters in the playoffs.

I'd sure like to see Prior Lake or Chaska come out of 2AA. That section is unusually weaker than most years.

Gentry should be number three, but Word has it that coaches won’t vote for them.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Seeding Gentry at #4 may be a favor to them. "We don't get no respect! We'll show 'em!" The Gentry coach could sell his kids on it, "We get to knock off Hill before they do!" Beating WB gets them a bit of respect, beating Stillwater gets them a little more, beating Stillwater by 4 or more gets more respect and raises a few eye brows. The 'Sconi teams they played are good, but importantly, not great.

I'm curious how attendance would be at a Hill - Gentry final. Given that demand typically far outstrips seating capacity, it may still sell out. I even paid money to watch Hill play Tartan and Osseo in the section final, so I would not miss this one either.

I think I posted this on another thread last week, but I see the 4AA semis will take place during one session on Wed 3/3. The 1 seed plays at 5:30, which will seem odd.

This week's WB -Blaine game will be played at Aldrich. That's a smart move by the Bears that Stillwater should copy.

[O-townClown]

I'd like to get people's thoughts on using Pagestat for section seeds. Would this ever happen in a million years?? It's obviously more accurate than QRF and probably more accurate than the coaches, but... would we miss the human element?

I've always preferred computer rankings because they are going to determine an outcome based on predetermined inputs. If you have the human element a bunch of points are brought up that weren't mentioned earlier. Like winning a conference title.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Conference championships are not created equal. I'd say they resemble finger prints, with no two alike.

[Joe2015]

Karl, you help make Minnesota winters very tolerable, thanks for all the time you put in covering HS hockey and the great job you do with the weekly rankings!

Seconded.

My jottings this week:
2AA! Will relative mediocrity lead to parity and excitement? Any of those top 4 could find their way to state. Seeds 5-7 are all legitimate 1st round upset threats.

Perpetual #14 Eden Prairie is also #14 in PageStat

To piggyback on Karl's (and everyone's) disdain for QRF: Gentry is currently the #1 team in 4AA based on those rankings. Yikes. I'd like to get people's thoughts on using Pagestat for section seeds. Would this ever happen in a million years?? It's obviously more accurate than QRF and probably more accurate than the coaches, but... would we miss the human element?

This would NEVER happen as well but teams should have to play a home and home with every other team in the section and then seedings go by section standings: objective and fair: no computer rankings or subjective coaches vote

[BlueLineSpecial]

Karl, you help make Minnesota winters very tolerable, thanks for all the time you put in covering HS hockey and the great job you do with the weekly rankings!

Seconded.

My jottings this week:
2AA! Will relative mediocrity lead to parity and excitement? Any of those top 4 could find their way to state. Seeds 5-7 are all legitimate 1st round upset threats.

Perpetual #14 Eden Prairie is also #14 in PageStat

To piggyback on Karl's (and everyone's) disdain for QRF: Gentry is currently the #1 team in 4AA based on those rankings. Yikes. I'd like to get people's thoughts on using Pagestat for section seeds. Would this ever happen in a million years?? It's obviously more accurate than QRF and probably more accurate than the coaches, but... would we miss the human element?

This would NEVER happen as well but teams should have to play a home and home with every other team in the section and then seedings go by section standings: objective and fair: no computer rankings or subjective coaches vote

You’re right, it would never happen. Not least of which is that sections have 8 or 9 teams, meaning 16-ish games against your own section. Throw in a yearly holiday tourney and that leaves you with maybe 5 or 6 games for your entire conference schedule/remaining schedule. You also wouldn’t be able to gauge state-wide teams against each other effectively, as the sample size would be too small with teams playing 65% of their games in a section bubble.

I don’t see any issues with its current format. Coaches get it pretty close to right most all the time.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Yes, coaches do get it fairly accurately most of the time. I want Hill to have a much, much tougher schedule than to play each section team twice. Ugh. I'm so uninterested in the lower tier of section 4AA that I doubt I could name more than one of them.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Yes, coaches do get it fairly accurately most of the time. I want Hill to have a much, much tougher schedule than to play each section team twice. Ugh. I'm so uninterested in the lower tier of section 4AA that I doubt I could name more than one of them.

Or just let Karl do it. He can be the section seedings czar. Give him 30 minutes live on channel 45 to reveal the seedings. Add a little drama to it by having a CNN election night-style digital big board where the seedings are revealed. You can have live look-ins on teams sitting in someone's living room as they get seeded, to gauge their reaction. Have guest calls with coaches to debate. Now the only question is, who would be Karl's sidekick. Maybe Dr. Chuck Ells from the Institute of Laughter for some comedic relief.

Dang, solving the world's problems before my first coffee is finished. Starting the week out strong!

[BlueLineSpecial]

Aside from just section seedings relevance, the last week of the regular season will offer a number of teams the opportunity to gain or lose momentum/confidence going into the playoffs.

Hill plays two surging top 6 teams in Maple Grove and Moorhead. Those two teams also get a chance to take down Hill and solidify they're for real, with Moorhead also getting #5 Roseau. Grand Rapids has been hot of late and gets a final test against Hermantown. It's likely that someone comes out of these games either having boosted their credibility or put into question if they really having what it takes to win a championship.

[Green and White Fan]

I am curious as to why Moorhead gets a pass on the Buffalo loss? I am not in agreement that tomorrow nights game is the deciding factor for the #1 and #2 ranking. If Moorhead were to win a tight one, the Buffalo loss should be the tie breaker?

[elliott70]

Moorhead will need to beat Roseau by 3 or more to get enough coaches votes.

A 1 or 2 goal game will give some votes to Moorhead but probably not enough.

[Sparlimb]

Moorhead will need to beat Roseau by 3 or more to get enough coaches votes.

A 1 or 2 goal game will give some votes to Moorhead but probably not enough.

I'd vote for Moorhead with any win. Doesn't matter much, these two teams are meeting for the section final. Lock it in. Both would be great to see at state.

[Green and White Fan]

Just curious Sparlimb as to why you would give Moorhead a pass on a section loss? Not arguing, just wondering your logic?

[Sparlimb]

Just curious Sparlimb as to why you would give Moorhead a pass on a section loss? Not arguing, just wondering your logic?

To be fair, I hadn't spent a lot of time looking at the schedules, so my statement was more off the cuff. Buffalo is the worst loss either team has had, and if Moorhead wins this week, the two teams will have split. Both played equally solid schedules. My only thought was Moorhead would need to sweep this week (against Roseau and Hill-Murray) and then would be the hotter team going into sections. It is a completely moot point if Roseau wins again. Mostly, the game this week doesn't mean all that much. The game in 2 weeks is the one that counts. Like I said, both teams are worthy participants and could easily take the whole thing home. No one stands out this year as the absolute team to beat.

[wbmd]

Seeding Gentry at #4 may be a favor to them. "We don't get no respect! We'll show 'em!" The Gentry coach could sell his kids on it, "We get to knock off Hill before they do!" Beating WB gets them a bit of respect, beating Stillwater gets them a little more, beating Stillwater by 4 or more gets more respect and raises a few eye brows. The 'Sconi teams they played are good, but importantly, not great.

I'm curious how attendance would be at a Hill - Gentry final. Given that demand typically far outstrips seating capacity, it may still sell out. I even paid money to watch Hill play Tartan and Osseo in the section final, so I would not miss this one either.

I think I posted this on another thread last week, but I see the 4AA semis will take place during one session on Wed 3/3. The 1 seed plays at 5:30, which will seem odd.

This week's WB -Blaine game will be played at Aldrich. That's a smart move by the Bears that Stillwater should copy.

White Bear and Blaine have been playing each other at Aldrich since 2018.

[Brodziak Fan Club]

[/quote]

This would NEVER happen as well but teams should have to play a home and home with every other team in the section and then seedings go by section standings: objective and fair: no computer rankings or subjective coaches vote
[/quote]

This is something I've thought of as well. The drawback I see is the huge gap between some of the top teams in each section and the bottom of the barrel. For example, Hopkins having to play the likes of Benilde, Wayzata, and Edina twice each season is less than ideal.