2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

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Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)

Who Wins

Prior Lake
23
59%
Cretin-Derham Hall
16
41%
 
Total votes: 39

Sparlimb
Posts: 2264
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by Sparlimb » Sat Mar 05, 2022 10:16 am

11 AM game.

This is the time slot, without researching, that likely has the most upsets over the years. 11 AM is a crappy time to play your first game and many teams come out flat. Add flat into the fact your tight already playing a state tournament game and fluky things happen. That all said, this is Prior Lake's first dance and so they don't hold any advantage over Cretin there. Had Cretin played Edina, I'd have picked Edina by 3 goals due just to time slot and experience.

East Side Pioneer Guy
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 6:43 pm

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:24 pm

As far as tournament experience, these teams are equal.

Cre-tine's schedule was some pretty weak tea, but at least they did what they needed to, only losing three. PL's schedule, on the other hand, was an even weaker tea, yet racking up double digit loses. They played 3 section finalists, losing to MG and The Hornet, while splitting with Eastview, one of the softer finalists.

Cre-tine's biggest enemy here is themselves. If they can avoid the jitters, they should be able to freeze the Lakers. I'd say Cre-tine by 2, with a 1:3 chance PL wins it by 1 (barring an en).
No coach, no team
No ref, no game

ryguyMN
Posts: 414
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Location: Western WI

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by ryguyMN » Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:09 pm

My heart wants Prior Lake, but I'll take Cretin. Cretin's struggles with Rosemount early in the section semis gives me pause, but they looked solid against Eastview. I think Prior Lake will come out banging. Alex Bump is peaking at the right time for Prior Lake. Early game, perhaps jitters both sides being recent newcomers to the tourney (first time for Prior Lake and first appearance since 2009 for Cretin). Cretin will need OT to pull off the W.
Ryan

SEC Scotty
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Location: East Metro

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by SEC Scotty » Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:51 pm

Lakers in an upset.

SEC Scotty
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Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:58 am
Location: East Metro

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by SEC Scotty » Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:54 pm

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:24 pm
As far as tournament experience, these teams are equal.

Cre-tine's schedule was some pretty weak tea, but at least they did what they needed to, only losing three. PL's schedule, on the other hand, was an even weaker tea, yet racking up double digit loses. They played 3 section finalists, losing to MG and The Hornet, while splitting with Eastview, one of the softer finalists.

Cre-tine's biggest enemy here is themselves. If they can avoid the jitters, they should be able to freeze the Lakers. I'd say Cre-tine by 2, with a 1:3 chance PL wins it by 1 (barring an en).
What's with the Cre-tine?

Sparlimb
Posts: 2264
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by Sparlimb » Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:35 pm

SEC Scotty wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:54 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:24 pm
As far as tournament experience, these teams are equal.

Cre-tine's schedule was some pretty weak tea, but at least they did what they needed to, only losing three. PL's schedule, on the other hand, was an even weaker tea, yet racking up double digit loses. They played 3 section finalists, losing to MG and The Hornet, while splitting with Eastview, one of the softer finalists.

Cre-tine's biggest enemy here is themselves. If they can avoid the jitters, they should be able to freeze the Lakers. I'd say Cre-tine by 2, with a 1:3 chance PL wins it by 1 (barring an en).
What's with the Cre-tine?
Its a schtick from old school HM days. The AD used to use that.

InThePipes
Posts: 927
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:26 pm

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by InThePipes » Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:21 pm

SEC Scotty wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:51 pm
Lakers in an upset.
Agree

East Side Pioneer Guy
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 6:43 pm

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:56 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:35 pm
SEC Scotty wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 5:54 pm
East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 12:24 pm
As far as tournament experience, these teams are equal.

Cre-tine's schedule was some pretty weak tea, but at least they did what they needed to, only losing three. PL's schedule, on the other hand, was an even weaker tea, yet racking up double digit loses. They played 3 section finalists, losing to MG and The Hornet, while splitting with Eastview, one of the softer finalists.

Cre-tine's biggest enemy here is themselves. If they can avoid the jitters, they should be able to freeze the Lakers. I'd say Cre-tine by 2, with a 1:3 chance PL wins it by 1 (barring an en).
What's with the Cre-tine?
Its a schtick from old school HM days. The AD used to use that.
Brother Francis Carr, a/k/a BFC, took particular delight whenever HM defeated Cre-tine, the crosstown rival staffed by his fellow Christian Brothers. And he always pronounced it that way, Cre-tine.
No coach, no team
No ref, no game

WestMetro
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by WestMetro » Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:59 pm

Seen each team several times , early and late in season , incl section play

I think PL got the best possible matchup of of the 3 top seeds that they could have drawn in the first round

High flying CDH forwards have been stymied a little during section rounds 2 and 3, not much scoring first two periods, then getting some ENG help in third . And they let Rosemount and Eastview hang around and pile up 30-35 SOGs of their own . Normally that would have produced a few goals

Difference has been Belak who has been super hot. But hasn’t faced snipers like Bump and Schumacher for a while .

Plus Lakers have nothing to lose , and pressure is on CDH with their top ranking all season

I guess this is a 60/40 or 55/45 game for the Raiders. But anyone that has seen Bump lately knows he can put on a show and get it done . At the same time , if Belak stays hot , he can skate off at the end with a shutout or only 1 goal allowed

East Side Pioneer Guy
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 6:43 pm

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:41 am

WestMetro wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:59 pm
Seen each team several times , early and late in season , incl section play

I think PL got the best possible matchup of of the 3 top seeds that they could have drawn in the first round

High flying CDH forwards have been stymied a little during section rounds 2 and 3, not much scoring first two periods, then getting some ENG help in third . And they let Rosemount and Eastview hang around and pile up 30-35 SOGs of their own . Normally that would have produced a few goals

Difference has been Belak who has been super hot. But hasn’t faced snipers like Bump and Schumacher for a while .

Plus Lakers have nothing to lose , and pressure is on CDH with their top ranking all season

I guess this is a 60/40 or 55/45 game for the Raiders. But anyone that has seen Bump lately knows he can put on a show and get it done . At the same time , if Belak stays hot , he can skate off at the end with a shutout or only 1 goal allowed
Cre-tine getting bumped down to the 2 seed does relieve some of the pressure on them. Plus, a savvy coach will give them the "Nobody believes in us" deal. Cre-tine drawing the 1 seed would have been a heavy burden. The Raider coach will need to make sure his team is not blinded sided here, but I still see this as 3:1 Cre-tine.
No coach, no team
No ref, no game

Sparlimb
Posts: 2264
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by Sparlimb » Sun Mar 06, 2022 8:55 am

WestMetro wrote:
Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:59 pm
Seen each team several times , early and late in season , incl section play

I think PL got the best possible matchup of of the 3 top seeds that they could have drawn in the first round

High flying CDH forwards have been stymied a little during section rounds 2 and 3, not much scoring first two periods, then getting some ENG help in third . And they let Rosemount and Eastview hang around and pile up 30-35 SOGs of their own . Normally that would have produced a few goals

Difference has been Belak who has been super hot. But hasn’t faced snipers like Bump and Schumacher for a while .

Plus Lakers have nothing to lose , and pressure is on CDH with their top ranking all season

I guess this is a 60/40 or 55/45 game for the Raiders. But anyone that has seen Bump lately knows he can put on a show and get it done . At the same time , if Belak stays hot , he can skate off at the end with a shutout or only 1 goal allowed
Wouldn't a Maple Grove vs Prior Lake game be a lot of fun on a Friday night? We'd put the over under on goals at about 11.5. Cretin has the depth here and should handle this game, but Bump will have his chance to put on a show.

Cookster
Posts: 74
Joined: Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:04 pm

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by Cookster » Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:12 am

To me, the question is how many goals will Cretin give up. If they give up 3, I do not think they win, if it is 4, then it is probably good bye tourney. At the same time, Prior Lake needs to get out to a lead, because they seem to play lines 1,2,1,2,1,3,1, and Bump & Co slow down in the 3rd without help. At the same time, it seems like there are not as many penalties called in the state tourney, so they wont be out there on the penalty kill and PP, plus the timeouts will help.

This is probably the best matchup for PL -- they pull off upset #1 in a day of upsets, 4-2 + the En, for a 5-2 win

sterfry9
Posts: 417
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Location: Minnesota

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by sterfry9 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:54 pm

curious to see how they will roll lines with tv timeouts. will they run top 2 lines more with the extra rest from the tv timeouts?

SEC Scotty
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Location: East Metro

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by SEC Scotty » Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:20 pm

Keep an eye on how many times the net comes off behind Belak.

LSQRANK
Posts: 364
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by LSQRANK » Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:34 pm

The stat numbers derived from the latest rating profile suggest that CDH will prevail in this one.

Code: Select all

CDH    ~ 999.7           Qxx = 0.0754
PLAKE  ~ 997.9           Qxx = 0.0749
------------------------
Diff =    1.8 goals

Z-value @ 97% = 2.17

97% MOE =  ~ 1.7 goals,  
so the 97% CI for the score differential is  the interval  from  [ 0.1  to 2.5 ]  

Notice that the computed interval contains positive numbers,
where 0 (zero) is not contained in the interval.

We are 97% confident that the true score differential of the game between CDH and PLake will lie within the interval from 0.1 goals to 2.5 goals, in favor of CDH.

Its a stretch from 97% to 99% , but I'd say these are pretty good odds supporting a statistical argument that CDH ought to come out on top on this one. 8)

For kicks, I ran the KRACH pair-wise algorithm on the same data and got the following results:

Code: Select all

Rank [-----------Team---------------] State   League   Sec       Class        KRACH_Rating               SOS         WL_Ratio   (WW-LL-TT)
---- -------------------------------- ----- ---------- ---  -------------  ---------------  ---------------- ----------------   ----------
   1                       Hermantown    MN      MSHSL   7             A           9930.78           737.17            13.47    (26- 2- 0)
   2                      Hill-Murray    MN      MSHSL   4            AA           5495.01          1012.42             5.43    (23- 4- 1)
   3                       Hudson(WI)    WI       WIAA   1            D1           5460.75           608.52             8.97    (26- 3- 0)
   4                Cretin-DerhamHall    MN      MSHSL   3            AA           5224.77           630.66             8.28    (24- 3- 0)
   5                   LakevilleSouth    MN      MSHSL   1            AA           4201.69           470.26             8.93    (26- 3- 0)
   6                       MapleGrove    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           3730.30          1085.22             3.44    (21- 6- 1)
   7                      Andover(MN)    MN      MSHSL   7            AA           3695.18           870.95             4.24    (22- 5- 1)
   8            Benilde-St.Margaret's    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           3619.60           952.07             3.80    (22- 6- 0)
   9                EauClaireMemorial    WI       WIAA   1            D1           3287.93           565.79             5.81    (19- 3- 1)
  10                            Edina    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           3023.45          1162.78             2.60    (20- 8- 0)
  11                          Warroad    MN      MSHSL   8             A           2728.08           379.72             7.18    (24- 3- 1)
  12                         Moorhead    MN      MSHSL   8            AA           2707.31           910.03             2.97    (21- 7- 1)
  13                           Roseau    MN      MSHSL   8            AA           2581.89           611.23             4.22    (22- 5- 1)
  14                          Wayzata    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           2201.90          1142.09             1.93    (17- 9- 1)
  15                  GrandRapids(MN)    MN      MSHSL   7            AA           2158.55           727.09             2.97    (21- 7- 1)
  16                  MadisonEdgewood    WI       WIAA   3            D1           2137.15           331.41             6.45    (25- 4- 0)
  17                           Rogers    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           1566.34           657.57             2.38    (19- 8- 1)
  18                   LakevilleNorth    MN      MSHSL   1            AA           1270.22           392.56             3.24    (22- 7- 0)
  19                   Centennial(MN)    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           1260.36           468.74             2.69    (18- 6- 3)
  20                    GentryAcademy    MN      MSHSL   4            AA           1205.76           388.50             3.10    (21- 7- 0)
  21                GreenBayNotreDame    WI       WIAA   2            D1           1022.37           444.10             2.30    (15- 6- 3)
  22                     StevensPoint    WI       WIAA   1            D1           1006.79           223.08             4.51    (22- 5- 0)
  23                      EdenPrairie    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            949.28           722.66             1.31    (15-12- 0)
  24                       Minnetonka    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            843.39           514.28             1.64    (16-10- 1)
  25                           Chaska    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            824.12           210.10             3.92    (23- 6- 0)
  26                       HolyAngels    MN      MSHSL   6            AA            724.11           141.85             5.10    (22- 4- 1)
  27                 St.ThomasAcademy    MN      MSHSL   3            AA            694.15           656.92             1.06    (13-13- 1)
  28                        PriorLake    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            678.18           345.13             1.96    (19-10- 0)
  29                            Blake    MN      MSHSL   6            AA            627.13           354.42             1.77    (17-10- 0)
  30               ElkRiver/Zimmerman    MN      MSHSL   8            AA            531.81           214.49             2.48    (20- 8- 1)
Extracting the KRAch values for CDH and PLake we get 5224.77 and 678.18, respectively.

Divide 678.18 into 5224.77 , yields ~ 7.7
Next divide 7.7 by (7.7 + 1) , yields 0.8851

What KRACH is indicating is that CDH would be expected to win 88.5% of the time when playing PLake at a neutral site.

Enjoy the games this week, Go Raiders !

SEC Scotty
Posts: 830
Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:58 am
Location: East Metro

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by SEC Scotty » Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:39 pm

LSQRANK wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:34 pm
The stat numbers derived from the latest rating profile suggest that CDH will prevail in this one.

Code: Select all

CDH    ~ 999.7           Qxx = 0.0754
PLAKE  ~ 997.9           Qxx = 0.0749
------------------------
Diff =    1.8 goals

Z-value @ 97% = 2.17

97% MOE =  ~ 1.7 goals,  
so the 97% CI for the score differential is  the interval  from  [ 0.1  to 2.5 ]  

Notice that the computed interval contains positive numbers,
where 0 (zero) is not contained in the interval.

We are 97% confident that the true score differential of the game between CDH and PLake will lie within the interval from 0.1 goals to 2.5 goals, in favor of CDH.

Its a stretch from 97% to 99% , but I'd say these are pretty good odds supporting a statistical argument that CDH ought to come out on top on this one. 8)

For kicks, I ran the KRACH pair-wise algorithm on the same data and got the following results:

Code: Select all

Rank [-----------Team---------------] State   League   Sec       Class        KRACH_Rating               SOS         WL_Ratio   (WW-LL-TT)
---- -------------------------------- ----- ---------- ---  -------------  ---------------  ---------------- ----------------   ----------
   1                       Hermantown    MN      MSHSL   7             A           9930.78           737.17            13.47    (26- 2- 0)
   2                      Hill-Murray    MN      MSHSL   4            AA           5495.01          1012.42             5.43    (23- 4- 1)
   3                       Hudson(WI)    WI       WIAA   1            D1           5460.75           608.52             8.97    (26- 3- 0)
   4                Cretin-DerhamHall    MN      MSHSL   3            AA           5224.77           630.66             8.28    (24- 3- 0)
   5                   LakevilleSouth    MN      MSHSL   1            AA           4201.69           470.26             8.93    (26- 3- 0)
   6                       MapleGrove    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           3730.30          1085.22             3.44    (21- 6- 1)
   7                      Andover(MN)    MN      MSHSL   7            AA           3695.18           870.95             4.24    (22- 5- 1)
   8            Benilde-St.Margaret's    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           3619.60           952.07             3.80    (22- 6- 0)
   9                EauClaireMemorial    WI       WIAA   1            D1           3287.93           565.79             5.81    (19- 3- 1)
  10                            Edina    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           3023.45          1162.78             2.60    (20- 8- 0)
  11                          Warroad    MN      MSHSL   8             A           2728.08           379.72             7.18    (24- 3- 1)
  12                         Moorhead    MN      MSHSL   8            AA           2707.31           910.03             2.97    (21- 7- 1)
  13                           Roseau    MN      MSHSL   8            AA           2581.89           611.23             4.22    (22- 5- 1)
  14                          Wayzata    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           2201.90          1142.09             1.93    (17- 9- 1)
  15                  GrandRapids(MN)    MN      MSHSL   7            AA           2158.55           727.09             2.97    (21- 7- 1)
  16                  MadisonEdgewood    WI       WIAA   3            D1           2137.15           331.41             6.45    (25- 4- 0)
  17                           Rogers    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           1566.34           657.57             2.38    (19- 8- 1)
  18                   LakevilleNorth    MN      MSHSL   1            AA           1270.22           392.56             3.24    (22- 7- 0)
  19                   Centennial(MN)    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           1260.36           468.74             2.69    (18- 6- 3)
  20                    GentryAcademy    MN      MSHSL   4            AA           1205.76           388.50             3.10    (21- 7- 0)
  21                GreenBayNotreDame    WI       WIAA   2            D1           1022.37           444.10             2.30    (15- 6- 3)
  22                     StevensPoint    WI       WIAA   1            D1           1006.79           223.08             4.51    (22- 5- 0)
  23                      EdenPrairie    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            949.28           722.66             1.31    (15-12- 0)
  24                       Minnetonka    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            843.39           514.28             1.64    (16-10- 1)
  25                           Chaska    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            824.12           210.10             3.92    (23- 6- 0)
  26                       HolyAngels    MN      MSHSL   6            AA            724.11           141.85             5.10    (22- 4- 1)
  27                 St.ThomasAcademy    MN      MSHSL   3            AA            694.15           656.92             1.06    (13-13- 1)
  28                        PriorLake    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            678.18           345.13             1.96    (19-10- 0)
  29                            Blake    MN      MSHSL   6            AA            627.13           354.42             1.77    (17-10- 0)
  30               ElkRiver/Zimmerman    MN      MSHSL   8            AA            531.81           214.49             2.48    (20- 8- 1)
Extracting the KRAch values for CDH and PLake we get 5224.77 and 678.18, respectively.

Divide 678.18 into 5224.77 , yields ~ 7.7
Next divide 7.7 by (7.7 + 1) , yields 0.8851

What KRACH is indicating is that CDH would be expected to win 88.5% of the time when playing PLake at a neutral site.

Enjoy the games this week, Go Raiders !
Good to know

Sparlimb
Posts: 2264
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 7:11 am

Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by Sparlimb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:59 pm

SEC Scotty wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 7:39 pm
LSQRANK wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:34 pm
The stat numbers derived from the latest rating profile suggest that CDH will prevail in this one.

Code: Select all

CDH    ~ 999.7           Qxx = 0.0754
PLAKE  ~ 997.9           Qxx = 0.0749
------------------------
Diff =    1.8 goals

Z-value @ 97% = 2.17

97% MOE =  ~ 1.7 goals,  
so the 97% CI for the score differential is  the interval  from  [ 0.1  to 2.5 ]  

Notice that the computed interval contains positive numbers,
where 0 (zero) is not contained in the interval.

We are 97% confident that the true score differential of the game between CDH and PLake will lie within the interval from 0.1 goals to 2.5 goals, in favor of CDH.

Its a stretch from 97% to 99% , but I'd say these are pretty good odds supporting a statistical argument that CDH ought to come out on top on this one. 8)

For kicks, I ran the KRACH pair-wise algorithm on the same data and got the following results:

Code: Select all

Rank [-----------Team---------------] State   League   Sec       Class        KRACH_Rating               SOS         WL_Ratio   (WW-LL-TT)
---- -------------------------------- ----- ---------- ---  -------------  ---------------  ---------------- ----------------   ----------
   1                       Hermantown    MN      MSHSL   7             A           9930.78           737.17            13.47    (26- 2- 0)
   2                      Hill-Murray    MN      MSHSL   4            AA           5495.01          1012.42             5.43    (23- 4- 1)
   3                       Hudson(WI)    WI       WIAA   1            D1           5460.75           608.52             8.97    (26- 3- 0)
   4                Cretin-DerhamHall    MN      MSHSL   3            AA           5224.77           630.66             8.28    (24- 3- 0)
   5                   LakevilleSouth    MN      MSHSL   1            AA           4201.69           470.26             8.93    (26- 3- 0)
   6                       MapleGrove    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           3730.30          1085.22             3.44    (21- 6- 1)
   7                      Andover(MN)    MN      MSHSL   7            AA           3695.18           870.95             4.24    (22- 5- 1)
   8            Benilde-St.Margaret's    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           3619.60           952.07             3.80    (22- 6- 0)
   9                EauClaireMemorial    WI       WIAA   1            D1           3287.93           565.79             5.81    (19- 3- 1)
  10                            Edina    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           3023.45          1162.78             2.60    (20- 8- 0)
  11                          Warroad    MN      MSHSL   8             A           2728.08           379.72             7.18    (24- 3- 1)
  12                         Moorhead    MN      MSHSL   8            AA           2707.31           910.03             2.97    (21- 7- 1)
  13                           Roseau    MN      MSHSL   8            AA           2581.89           611.23             4.22    (22- 5- 1)
  14                          Wayzata    MN      MSHSL   6            AA           2201.90          1142.09             1.93    (17- 9- 1)
  15                  GrandRapids(MN)    MN      MSHSL   7            AA           2158.55           727.09             2.97    (21- 7- 1)
  16                  MadisonEdgewood    WI       WIAA   3            D1           2137.15           331.41             6.45    (25- 4- 0)
  17                           Rogers    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           1566.34           657.57             2.38    (19- 8- 1)
  18                   LakevilleNorth    MN      MSHSL   1            AA           1270.22           392.56             3.24    (22- 7- 0)
  19                   Centennial(MN)    MN      MSHSL   5            AA           1260.36           468.74             2.69    (18- 6- 3)
  20                    GentryAcademy    MN      MSHSL   4            AA           1205.76           388.50             3.10    (21- 7- 0)
  21                GreenBayNotreDame    WI       WIAA   2            D1           1022.37           444.10             2.30    (15- 6- 3)
  22                     StevensPoint    WI       WIAA   1            D1           1006.79           223.08             4.51    (22- 5- 0)
  23                      EdenPrairie    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            949.28           722.66             1.31    (15-12- 0)
  24                       Minnetonka    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            843.39           514.28             1.64    (16-10- 1)
  25                           Chaska    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            824.12           210.10             3.92    (23- 6- 0)
  26                       HolyAngels    MN      MSHSL   6            AA            724.11           141.85             5.10    (22- 4- 1)
  27                 St.ThomasAcademy    MN      MSHSL   3            AA            694.15           656.92             1.06    (13-13- 1)
  28                        PriorLake    MN      MSHSL   2            AA            678.18           345.13             1.96    (19-10- 0)
  29                            Blake    MN      MSHSL   6            AA            627.13           354.42             1.77    (17-10- 0)
  30               ElkRiver/Zimmerman    MN      MSHSL   8            AA            531.81           214.49             2.48    (20- 8- 1)
Extracting the KRAch values for CDH and PLake we get 5224.77 and 678.18, respectively.

Divide 678.18 into 5224.77 , yields ~ 7.7
Next divide 7.7 by (7.7 + 1) , yields 0.8851

What KRACH is indicating is that CDH would be expected to win 88.5% of the time when playing PLake at a neutral site.

Enjoy the games this week, Go Raiders !
Good to know
You know who doesn't care what the computer thinks? Mr. Hockey. Its his show. If he carries his team on his back as he's done the last few games, they will win. If he doesn't, Cretin's depth will prevail.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:04 am

Yep, there are a lot of important factors a computer program will never be able to measure. That's why I've never really had the time of day for them.

Einstein said that not everything that can be counted counts; not everything that counts can be counted.

(If you want to make yourself sound smart, quote Einstein)
No coach, no team
No ref, no game

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:40 am

I rather like computer statistics. They don't account for all the non quantifiable stuff like grit or momentum, but they're very useful for giving us a baseline to work from. Without this, LS should be the seeded 'home' team and Hill should be the unseeded 'away' team. LS has a better record than Hill, after all.....

Taking into account things like SOS, common opponent results, goal differential, other stats, etc. then we get to a place where we can compare apples to apples more effectively.

But yeah, you still have to play the game. And all the non quantifiable stuff means something. Sometimes it means a lot.
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:38 am

It's not a binary choice. Just because you don't use computer rankings doesn't mean you are limited to using won/lost records.
No coach, no team
No ref, no game

BlueLineSpecial
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:46 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:38 am
It's not a binary choice. Just because you don't use computer rankings doesn't mean you are limited to using won/lost records.
I understand that. But the more stats you use beyond won/lost record, the more you're accepting of the value/importance of 'computer' stats. So they both play a role in my opinion. There's value in using a series of definable stats to predict outcomes, rank teams, rate offenses v defenses, etc. There's also value in all of the non-quantifiable stuff like grit, momentum, heart, etc...
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

WarmUpTheBus
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by WarmUpTheBus » Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:21 am

SEC Scotty wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:20 pm
Keep an eye on how many times the net comes off behind Belak.
The nets are more solidly anchored at the X vs a high school arena so I wouldn’t expect the net will come off at all.

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:45 am

WarmUpTheBus wrote:
Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:21 am
SEC Scotty wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 5:20 pm
Keep an eye on how many times the net comes off behind Belak.
The nets are more solidly anchored at the X vs a high school arena so I wouldn’t expect the net will come off at all.
I wish referees would pay a lot more attention to the net coming off every game. Three times in ten minutes should raise suspicions.
No coach, no team
No ref, no game

lakershockeycoach
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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by lakershockeycoach » Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:25 pm

Gotta go with my Lakers! Their fan section is second to none. Let's go boys =D>

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Re: 2022 Class AA QF - Prior Lake vs #2 Cretin-Derham Hall

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Wed Mar 09, 2022 5:05 pm

Everyone's hopped on the Lakers bandwagon I see. All Cretin did was hold the #1 spot for pretty much the entire year. Apparently being the preseason #1 and then generally proving everyone right means you're ripe for an upset.

I'll take Cretin 5 Prior Lake 3 [EN]

Now that I said that I'm sure Prior Lake will put the Raiders in running time....
Last edited by BlueLineSpecial on Thu Mar 10, 2022 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

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