PageStat 2022-23

[east hockey]

First weekly ratings are up and Chanhassen is, for the first time, sitting near the head of the table!

http://www.leepagen.com/ps2023.htm

Lee

[bardown27]

Lee, is there a reason some teams don't show up in the most up to date SOS data?

[east hockey]

Lee, is there a reason some teams don't show up in the most up to date SOS data?

What are you referring to? The difference between gross SOS and net SOS?

Lee

[bardown27]

Lee, is there a reason some teams don't show up in the most up to date SOS data?

What are you referring to? The difference between gross SOS and net SOS?

Lee

https://leepagen.com/strength.htm

Benilde isn't listed.

[east hockey]

Lee, is there a reason some teams don't show up in the most up to date SOS data?

What are you referring to? The difference between gross SOS and net SOS?

Lee

https://leepagen.com/strength.htm

Benilde isn't listed.

Fixed

Lee

[Nostalgic Nerd]

"Gross Avg" is a team's SOS average in all games. "Net Avg" is a team's SOS average only in games which are used in PageStat.

I don't really understand. Is Pagestat using only games that are considered strong competition? It's rather confusing to me.

[WestMetro]

Lee can you pls expand on the Holy Family ranking ? I mean they had that nice win over Edina which I was at , but 6 seems a bit high .

[east hockey]

Lee can you pls expand on the Holy Family ranking ? I mean they had that nice win over Edina which I was at , but 6 seems a bit high .

They have a +9 goal differential (the Mound Westonka game which they won by 11 was tossed because of MW's low PageStat and the +5 goal cap , a 1.50 average goal diff. Their opponents average PageStat rating was 20.45. A (1.50) + B (20.45)= 21.95. It drops to 21.94 because of the momentum thing (games played earlier are weighted less, albeit slightly less than games played more recently).

By the way, the MW game being tossed ties into a previous poster asking me to explain the difference between Net SOS and Gross SOS. A game is tossed when the difference CANNOT improve the better team's PageStat or reduce the lesser team's PageStat. This discussion has been had in the past and is searchable. At some point, I no longer wish to explain how I "invented the wheel". (This isn't directed at you, West Metro, but the previous poster), as it relates to SOS

Lee

[east hockey]

"Gross Avg" is a team's SOS average in all games. "Net Avg" is a team's SOS average only in games which are used in PageStat.

I don't really understand. Is Pagestat using only games that are considered strong competition? It's rather confusing to me.

PageStat tosses out games where the winning team's PageStat can't be improved no matter how badly they beat an inferior opponent. On the flip side, sometimes a losing team's PageStat can't be lowered no matter how badly they lost to a superior opponent. It's a bit like how RPI is calculated in College Hockey, used in Pairwise.

https://www.uscho.com/rankings/rpi/d-i-men/

Lee

[east hockey]

I played around with the numbers a little, with two questions in mind--what would happen if I removed the cap entirely, and what would happen if I reduced the cap to 1 goal; this would mean that only wins and losses and who did beat or lost to count, ignoring the goal differential. In other words, an eight goal win would mean the same as a one goal win.

Comparing PageStat as it is to having no cap--STA and Minnetonka are still the top two. Teams in the top 20 moving by at least three places include:

Holy Family drops from 6 to 9
CDH drops from 9 to 12
Edina moves up from 11 to 8
Lake. South drops from 12 to 15
Maple Grove moves up from 14 to 3

Things get a little crazy if I run a 1 goal cap system. This would be your new top 30

1. Hermantown
2. Hill-Murray
3. Benilde
4. Lake. South
5. Warroad
6. Wayzata
7. Hastings
8. Lake. North
9. Blake
10. STMA
11. Totino Grace
12. Holy Angels
13, Stillwater
14. Gentry Acad
15. St Thom. Acad.
16. Shakopee
17. Mahtomedi
18. Minnetonka
19. Chanhassen
20. Champlin Park
21. Rogers
22. Delano
23. CDH
24. Andover
25. Eastview
26. Sartell
27. Alexandria
28. Holy Family
29. Centennial
30. Rosemount

At first glance, my impression is that the +1 system is a piece of crap. Your opinion may vary, of course.

Lee

[WestMetro]

Lee can you pls expand on the Holy Family ranking ? I mean they had that nice win over Edina which I was at , but 6 seems a bit high .

They have a +9 goal differential (the Mound Westonka game which they won by 11 was tossed because of MW's low PageStat and the +5 goal cap , a 1.50 average goal diff. Their opponents average PageStat rating was 20.45. A (1.50) + B (20.45)= 21.95. It drops to 21.94 because of the momentum thing (games played earlier are weighted less, albeit slightly less than games played more recently).

By the way, the MW game being tossed ties into a previous poster asking me to explain the difference between Net SOS and Gross SOS. A game is tossed when the difference CANNOT improve the better team's PageStat or reduce the lesser team's PageStat. This discussion has been had in the past and is searchable. At some point, I no longer wish to explain how I "invented the wheel". (This isn't directed at you, West Metro, but the previous poster), as it relates to SOS

Lee

Going to be interesting to see how Holy Family progresses this season . They came in 2nd at the BIG summer festival . The win against Edina was no fluke . They have a bunch of quality skaters and Reinhard has fit in nicely replacing Hendrickson in goal. They should win both this week . Then win at least 2 of 3 next week at MGCC tourney , and could beat Gentry also for the sweep . So possible to be 9-3 or 10-2 heading into January .

[east hockey]

Starting today, PageStat ratings for the boys' side will be posted three times a week (hopefully!)--on Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. The SOS will continue to be done weekly, on Sunday. I got everything in the various PageStat systems I'm running organized well enough that I can do this with relative ease.

Lee

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Awesome. Such a great resource. Ignore the dissenters, keep the goal cap.. unless we really think Maple Grove playing their 1st line up 15-0 against Anoka makes them one of the three best teams in the state

[east hockey]

Awesome. Such a great resource. Ignore the dissenters, keep the goal cap.. unless we really think Maple Grove playing their 1st line up 15-0 against Anoka makes them one of the three best teams in the state

That's the thing about capping games at whatever point you deem appropriate--some teams call off the dogs when up by a comfortable margin, some like to pad their stats. Hell, even East was once upon a time accused of this by disgruntled Marshall fans when East boatraced them 21-0. Three years later I made the offhand comment on a blog I used to keep dedicated to the Hounds that it was "a night to pad the stats" when they beat Marshall but only by an 8-0 score. Holy cow, the Marshall fans and parents were tripping over each other to get to me in email accusing me of disrespecting the Hilltoppers!

As a point of historical reference, I originally called the cap the Centennial Rule due to them running up some pretty big numbers against some pretty weak opponents.

The only question (and one I analyze every couple years) is, what is correct goal cap? Right now it sits at 5, but was 6 until a year ago. A cap of 5 allows for correctly predicting more section tournament games than it would when using other cap levels. It will be analyzed again after this season. I'm also in the process of crunching the results of having NO cap to see how valid it is.

Lee

[east hockey]

As I do each season around this time, you can now see the PageStat boys' ratings sorted by section.

http://www.leepagen.com/ps2023.htm

Lee

[east hockey]

Only one disagreement with the seedings so far--with Holy Angels taking down St. Louis Park last night in OT, PageStat goes +1 vs. the seedings.

There are several 1 vs 2 and 2 vs 3 disagreements coming up. 9 of them, to be exact. More possible but it would have to get crazy such as an 8 seed knocking off a 1 seed and a 7 seed knocking off a 2 seed, setting up an 8 vs 7 semifinal matchup.

Lots of hockey to be played--hopefully the weather events of this week won't muck things up!

Lee

[WestMetro]

Well I picked correctly on Holy Angels last nite , but was wrong on the Elk and Coon Rapids upsets ,

Heard that Coon Rapids had a good turnout

[east hockey]

Well I picked correctly on Holy Angels last nite , but was wrong on the Elk and Coon Rapids upsets ,

Heard that Coon Rapids had a good turnout

I listened to some of the CR-Cloquet game. Cloquet came out like gangbusters and I really thought they were going to put the game away early. Nope! East-CR will be interesting--they've only played once in the past which is weird because I believe they were in the same section from 1975-91.

Lee

[east hockey]

Three disagreements tomorrow:

PageStat has #3 Lakeville North over #2 Rochester Mayo in 1AA Semis
Has #3 Mankato East over #2 Luverne in 3A Semis
Has #3 St Cloud Cathedral over #2 Monticello in 5A Semis

Possible matchups with PageStat picking the lower seed:

#3 Delano over #2 Providence Academy in 2A
#3 St Cloud Cathedral over #1 Little Falls in 5A
#2 Minnetonka over #1 Chanhassen in 2AA
#3 Hill-Murray over #2 Stillwater in 3AA
#2 Maple Grove over #1 Rogers in 5AA
#2 Edina over #1 Wayzata in 6AA
#2 Andover over #1 Duluth East in 7AA

Lee

[east hockey]

PageStat picks up today's two disagreements with the seedings:

#3 Lakeville North beat #2 Rochester Mayo in 1AA
#3 St Cloud Cathedral beat #2 Monticello in 5A

PageStat is now +3 over the seedings

PageStat picks the following "upsets":

#2 Minnetonka over #1 Chanhassen in 2AA
#2 Edina over #1 Wayzata in 6AA
#2 Andover over #1 Duluth East in 7AA
#3 Mankato East over #2 Luverne in 3A
#2 St Cloud Cathedral over #1 Little Falls in 5A

One other possible matchup with PageStat picking the lower seed:

#2 Maple Grove over #1 Rogers in 5AA

Lee

[east hockey]

PageStat sits at +2 after losing last nights Luverne vs Mankato East disagreement.

No disagreements tonight but a future one will be set up if Maple Grove beats Champlin Park. PageStat would favor #2 Maple Grove over #1 Rogers in the 5AA final

Other upcoming disagreements:

#2 Minnetonka over #1 Chanhassen in 2AA
#2 Edina over #1 Wayzata in 6AA
#2 Andover over #1 Duluth East in 7AA
#2 St Cloud Cathedral over #1 Little Falls in 5A

Lee

[east hockey]

Edina wins, putting PageStat back up +3 over the seedings.

If the Crusaders beat Little Falls, it's over.

If not, PageStat will still need just one of tomorrow's three disagreements to clinch.

No matter what happens, less upsets this year than I can remember.

Lee

[east hockey]

Locked up at +4 with only three disagreements left, so PageStat will finish anywhere from +1 to +7

Lee

[east hockey]

PageStat takes the final three disagreements on Thursday, winds up +7. It's +28 over the five most recent years, PageStat wasn't run in the 2020-21 season due to wonky scheduling and resulting lack of out of conference games in two particular conferences..hopefully there will never be a repeat!

Lee