AA Rankings for 1/29/23

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AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by karl(east) » Sun Jan 29, 2023 8:32 am

It was a week of beautiful chaos. Who, besides Minnetonka, deserves to be near the top of the rankings? It’s really a mystery! We’ll throw this combination of things at the wall and see if it sticks.

1. Minnetonka (17-2)
-In a season of few sure things, the Skippers continue to be the one relatively sure thing, looking strong in a win over Lakeville South and watching as the two teams that had been immediately behind them fell. The top spot is theirs to lose now, and a win this week over one of the two teams to beat them would only drive home this status.
This week: Thurs at #7 Wayzata, Sat vs. Buffalo

2. Edina (13-4-1)
-In a week when a lot of teams were not moving in the right direction, the Hornets made things look relatively smooth in wins over Wayzata and Eden Prairie. I’ve like this team from the start, given the strength of their back end and a couple of stars up front; now, if the whole team is settling into a system, they could be very tough to beat. This week’s slate features two games of improving teams in green.
This week: Fri at Hill-Murray, Sat vs. Hill-Murray

3. Rogers (12-2-3)
-The Royals dispatched of Totino in their only action this past week and drift upward as other lose; that two-loss record is looking good now. They have a busy push to the finish line now, with two three-game weeks upcoming, though only one this week is likely to trouble them. After a tie in the first go-around, this is their chance to prove they belong up here, not to mention staking a firm claim to the top seed in the section.
This week: Mon vs. Buffalo, Thurs vs. Anoka, Fri vs. #6 Maple Grove (in Bloomington)

4. Andover (14-5-1)
-Untroubled through a second straight week of easy competition, so like Rogers, they are climbing the ladder. Their two opponents this week have generally not been trending in the right direction in January, so we might be in line for more of the same, though any sort of hiccup against Rapids will be problematic for 7AA seeding.
This week: Thurs at Elk River, Fri vs. Grand Rapids

5. Chanhassen (17-2)
-The Storm passed its first test in a big week by taking care of White Bear, but Benilde’s attack proved another story. Their weaker schedule means losses like that matter more, but on the flip side, they still have the Minnetonka win and both of their losses are to very good teams, so they can claim a lot more consistency than the other teams up here. There’s something to be said for taking care of business. It should be back to the regularly scheduled programming this week.
This week: Tues at New Prague, Sat vs. St. Cloud

6. Maple Grove (15-4-1)
-The Crimson stumbled for a second straight week, losing a goalfest to Centennial and leaving them 0-2-1 in their last three against the other three ranked 5AA teams. If they lose to Rogers this week, it’s not crazy to think they could end up as the 4-seed in 5AA. While their overall credentials are great, they aren’t moving in the right direction right now. Their schedule over the last few weeks does give them a number of chances to stabilize that—or really fall into the midst of the 5AA chase pack.
This week: Thurs vs. Totino-Grace, Fri at #3 Rogers (in Bloomington)

7. Wayzata (13-4-2)
-The Trojans’ recent swoon has reached crisis levels. First, they fell into an early hole against Edina and couldn’t climb all the way back out, which is tough but happens in Lake Conference play; then, however, they lost to Buffalo. Suddenly they have to work the top seed in 6AA, despite spending a good chunk of the season at #1 overall, and Minnetonka will likely be hungry for revenge this week after Will Ingemann shut them down a few weeks back. Can the Trojans stabilize things some here?
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Grand Rapids

8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-5)
-Score one for the good Benilde, as the Red Knights put together a convincing performance to end Chanhassen’s winning streak. Was the Mahtomedi just a bump in an otherwise very solid month of January that has also included wins over St. Thomas and Moorhead and running time over Champlin, or are they just riding the roller coaster? Eden Prairie this week could tell us something in that regard; despite a bunch of quality wins, they’ve been inconsistent enough that I don’t really trust them yet.
This week: Tues vs. Waconia, Sat vs. Eden Prairie

9. St. Thomas Academy (15-5)
-The Cadets seem to be rounding into playoff form as they rattle off wins, with a shutout of Prior Lake being their most notable achievement this past week. With their 3AA rivals taking some lumps, they can’t be too upset with the situation right now, content to lurk and build as others stumble. They’ll look to avenge an earlier loss to Mahtomedi this week.
This week: Thurs at Mahtomedi

10. Champlin Park (13-5)
-The Rebels have won their past four, beating Maple Grove and Centennial in the process, and could plausibly wind up as the 2-seed in 4AA. Though they’ve been vulnerable to the occasional blowout loss, when they lock down, they seem to do well in these low-scoring games with good teams. They tough run keeps going with two more top 15 teams this week—their last two on the season—which might give us a sense of this team’s ceiling. They’re winning the right games to move up in the section, but can they prove it on a statewide basis?
This week: Tues vs. #15 White Bear Lake, Fri at #13 Duluth East, Sat at Cloquet

11. Centennial (10-6-1)
-The Cougars are on a wild ride right now; just when it seemed like the Champlin loss might consign them to 4-seed status in 5AA, they came roaring back to beat Maple Grove. They seem comfortable being outshot fairly regularly but still find ways to score some big wins. Duluth East headlines the week ahead in a game that will matter for this part of the rankings.
This week: Tues at #13 Duluth East, Thurs at Osseo, Sat at Anoka

12. Cretin-Derham Hall (13-6-1)
-Eek: like Wayzata, the Raiders lost twice this past week, first in an understandable but hardly encouraging section game against Eastview, and then in a clunker against Chaska. Their big AA wins are now fairly distant history, and the Eastview loss probably cost them any chance at the 1-seed in 3AA. There’s a case for dropping them lower, though their quality wins are better than those of the other teams in this part of the rankings. The good news is that they do have opportunities to right the ship, including a quality Lakeville South team and a battle for Suburban East supremacy against White Bear.
This week: Tues at Blake, Thurs vs. #14 Lakeville South, Sat at #15 White Bear Lake

13. Duluth East (12-6-1)
-The Hounds continue to collect wins while chaos ensues around them. The relatively easy stretch is over now, though, and their final six games feature three against top 15 Northwest Suburban teams. Two of them are this coming week, along with a Superior team that has done well against 7A competition, so we’ll know a lot more about these Hounds by next weekend.
This week: Tues vs. #11 Centennial, Wed vs. Superior (WI), Fri vs. #10 Champlin Park

14. Lakeville South (11-5-1)
-For about seven periods it was looking like a very strong week for the Cougars, as they thumped Shakopee, shut down Lakeville North to assert their 1AA supremacy, and jumped out to a 2-0 lead on Minnetonka. It was all Skippers from there on out, but for their more immediate purposes, it was a good sign for the Cougars as they look to punch their ticket to State. Cretin this week should be an interesting one, and they get a Shakopee rematch, too.
This week: Tues vs. Blaine, Thurs at #12 Cretin-Derham Hall, Sat at Shakopee

15. White Bear Lake (13-4)
-While the Bears were competitive in their return to quality competition this past week, they didn’t get a win against either Chanhassen or Hill-Murray. The Hockey Day loss further fouls up a convoluted 4AA. They continue with a challenging stretch and have two more top 15 games this week, though it’s hard to know what to make of Cretin at the moment. Can they get a quality win or two for the first time since early December?
This week: Tues at #X Champlin Park, Sat vs. #12 Cretin-Derham Hall

The Next Ten

Eastview (12-6)
-The Lighting came surging back after a rough stretch this past week and won three times, including a signature victory over Cretin and a respectable one over Prior lake, too. They’re suddenly very much back in the 3AA race, and will look to keep the momentum going against two decent but beatable teams, Chaska and Gentry Academy.

Shakopee (12-5)
-The Sabers did not fare well in a visit to Lakeville South and therefore maintain this 20ish position they’ve held for much of the season. They’re right back at it this week with a chance to improve on their performance against the Cougars.

Holy Family (13-5)
-The Delano win was a bit close, but the Fire ran through their conference rivals and orange, along with Sartell. They remain in this general realm, borderline contenders but not quite making any real moves upward. They get Delano again this week, along with Hutchinson and St. Louis Park.

Hill-Murray (8-8-1)
-Did anyone actually think the Pioneers would go quietly into the night? For all of this season’s travails, they are coming together at the right time, and after ruining White Bear’s party with a Hockey Day stunner, they once again have to be the slight favorites in 4AA. We’ll see if they can build on that in the annual home-and-home with Edina.

Moorhead (9-9)
-The Spuds put up a decent fight against Warroad but came up short, which is kind of the story of their season so far. Their rematch with Roseau was postponed, so we’ll have to wait a bit longer for another serious 8AA barometer. A tough East Grand Forks team and Elk River are up this week.

Eden Prairie (8-10-1)
-Not much to write home about here for the Eagles, who narrowly beat Buffalo (though they can hold that over Wayzata) and got shut out by Edina. They’ve had some flashes but have yet to build any real momentum. Another opportunity lies ahead of them with visits to Stillwater and Benilde.

Roseau (11-7-1)
-The postponement of the Moorhead game left the Rams merely with a split decision of a week, losing to Warroad (albeit by a better margin than in the first meeting) before beating St. Cloud. That doesn’t tell us a ton. Bemidji has been playing pretty well lately, so this week’s meeting with the Lumberjacks could be worth watching, and St. Michael-Albertville has 8AA implications, too.

Stillwater (10-4-3)
-The Ponies weren’t overly convincing in wins over Woodbury and Forest Lake, but they did collect their Ws and live to tell the tale. They get Woodbury again this week, along with East Ridge, but the biggest test will be Eden Prairie for this team of mystery of late.

Gentry Academy (11-6)
-While not competitive with the best teams of the class this season, the Stars have been taking care of the teams they should beat. They get a shot at doing something against Eastview this week before a home-and-home with Blake.

Rosemount (8-9)
-A new entrant to the top 25 has a lot of losses but is charging hard, having beaten both Lakevilles and Eastview in the past few weeks, along with giving Hermantown a good run. Most of their losses are to good teams and the weaker ones were early, so we’ll ride the Irish momentum for the time being. They can avenge one of those early losses against Prior Lake this week.

It's a sections week, and most things are taking shape here.

1AA
14 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
Hastings
Rochester Mayo
-South seems to be in full command here. The rest should get sorted out this week, and North plays both Hastings and Mayo, so we’ll see if anyone can make a move. Mayo does have a bunch of section games left that could still affect them, though I wouldn’t foresee anything dramatic.

2AA
5 Chanhassen
1 Minnetonka
17 Shakopee
18 Holy Family
21 Eden Prairie
-Nothing has changed here since two weeks ago, tough Chanhassen’s loss puts a little more pressure on their top seed slot. Eden Prairie looks like it should be ahead of Prior Lake and Chaska in the transitive property loop the three of them enjoy, though Prior Lake can shake that up with two games against Shakopee next week. Any other change would have to come down the Eden Prairie-Minnetonka in the season’s final week.

3AA
9 St. Thomas Academy
12 Cretin-Derham Hall
16 Eastview
25 Rosemount
-St. Thomas and Cretin have yo-yoed back and forth for the top spot here all season, but with the Raiders now bearing a loss to Eastview, it will probably take a collapse to cost the Cadets the top spot. Eastview is in a weird place, with a loss to Rosemount and a split with Eagan to go with that Cretin win, but I figure it all more or less balances out to put them where they belong at #3, at least until their rematch with the Irish next week. A win by the surging Irish in that one probably flips those two.

4AA
19 Hill-Murray
23 Stillwater
15 White Bear Lake
24 Gentry Academy
-Nothing makes a ton of sense here at the moment, but now that Hill has beaten White Bear and lacks Stillwater’s section baggage, they could well be the seed team here. The second White Bear-Stillwater game next week should settle the 2-seed, and while I think Gentry is doing enough to get the 4, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Woodbury climb up there; their problem is that they have an East Ridge loss.

5AA
3 Rogers
10 Champlin Park
11 Centennial
6 Maple Grove
-Well. The records among themselves here at the moment read Rogers 2-0-1, Champlin 2-2, Maple Grove 1-2-1, Centennial 2-3, with one game left between Rogers and Maple Grove on Friday. With a win, Rogers would claim the top seed, and then the order above would make a lot of sense. If the Crimson win, though, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them at the top, given everything else they’ve done this year, and everyone else would then slide down one. If it’s a tie, push Maple Grove to 3; Champlin did themselves a lot of good with these recent win over the Crimson and the Cougars. Mounds View hovers as a sticky 5-seed date for someone here.

6AA
2 Edina
7 Wayzata
8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
St. Louis Park
-Edina jumps to the top after the win over Wayzata, but there’s a second meeting on the final day of the regular season to continue that discussion. Benilde is set at the three-seed, while Holy Angels’ win over Blake probably means St. Louis Park, who has beaten the Stars, jumps into that 4-seed slot.

7AA
4 Andover
13 Duluth East
Grand Rapids
Cloquet
-No real change here, save Rapids fading some; the Thunderhawks do play Andover this coming week, while East’s three games with Northwest Suburban powers, all of whom have played Andover, will decide whether they can make a serious claim to the top seed. Forest Lake did Cloquet a favor by beating Coon Rapids this past week, and if the Jacks, who are the only other team with a winning record in this section, can edge the Rangers this week, the 4-seed should be theirs. If not, Forest Lake probably gets it on head-to-head results.

8AA
19 Moorhead
21 Roseau
Sartell
Buffalo
-Weather forced the postponement of what was supposed to be the clash for the top spot by a few weeks here, so that bit has not changed. Otherwise, Sartell seems to be emerging from the pack somewhat, as they now hold wins over Bemidji, Elk River, and St. Cloud, and Buffalo also has a winning section record and grabbed some attention with that Wayzata win. (The Bison were the first team out of the top 25 this week.) Bemidji hovers toward the top here as well, but doesn’t quite have the résumé of the other two, so I’ll stick with this for now.

Just three weeks left in the regular season!

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:02 am

Its interesting that 80% of the top 10 reside in three sections - 2AA, 5AA & 6AA. Then you've got three sections that don't have a single team currently cracking the top 13 - 1AA, 4AA & 8AA

It's entirely possible that we could have 3, possibly 4, section winners that don't crack the top 10. And a lot of top 10 teams would be watching from home.

**A lot can happen between now and State. But I don't necessarily recall a year with this much section disparity?
The City of Hill Murray is beautiful this time of year

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by Sparlimb » Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:56 am

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:02 am
Its interesting that 80% of the top 10 reside in three sections - 2AA, 5AA & 6AA. Then you've got three sections that don't have a single team currently cracking the top 13 - 1AA, 4AA & 8AA

It's entirely possible that we could have 3, possibly 4, section winners that don't crack the top 10. And a lot of top 10 teams would be watching from home.

**A lot can happen between now and State. But I don't necessarily recall a year with this much section disparity?
Could be just the year for WBL to play on a Friday night...

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by elliott70 » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:05 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:02 am
Its interesting that 80% of the top 10 reside in three sections - 2AA, 5AA & 6AA. Then you've got three sections that don't have a single team currently cracking the top 13 - 1AA, 4AA & 8AA

It's entirely possible that we could have 3, possibly 4, section winners that don't crack the top 10. And a lot of top 10 teams would be watching from home.

**A lot can happen between now and State. But I don't necessarily recall a year with this much section disparity?
Have you considered that perhaps Karl is wrong?

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by elliott70 » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:06 pm

BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:02 am
Its interesting that 80% of the top 10 reside in three sections - 2AA, 5AA & 6AA. Then you've got three sections that don't have a single team currently cracking the top 13 - 1AA, 4AA & 8AA

It's entirely possible that we could have 3, possibly 4, section winners that don't crack the top 10. And a lot of top 10 teams would be watching from home.

**A lot can happen between now and State. But I don't necessarily recall a year with this much section disparity?
I can remember years where there were only two.

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by Sparlimb » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:07 pm

I wait for HAL to tell me the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by elliott70 » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:07 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:07 pm
I wait for HAL to tell me the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
:D

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by east hockey » Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:50 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 12:07 pm
I wait for HAL to tell me the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Well, you know what Tom Cruise said about the truth :mrgreen:

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:06 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:56 am
BlueLineSpecial wrote:
Tue Jan 31, 2023 11:02 am
Its interesting that 80% of the top 10 reside in three sections - 2AA, 5AA & 6AA. Then you've got three sections that don't have a single team currently cracking the top 13 - 1AA, 4AA & 8AA

It's entirely possible that we could have 3, possibly 4, section winners that don't crack the top 10. And a lot of top 10 teams would be watching from home.

**A lot can happen between now and State. But I don't necessarily recall a year with this much section disparity?
Could be just the year for WBL to play on a Friday night...
Oh, have the Class A consolation semis been moved to noon Friday?
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:30 am

Anyone gotten a glimpse of Eastview this year? Would be curious to get your thoughts. Was scrolling through the scores last night and see they beat Gentry - which got me curious about their season. Eastview has beaten Centennial, White Bear, Shakopee & Cretin. Not bad, seem like they could be a darkhorse in 3AA
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by Sparlimb » Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:24 pm

And Stillwater loses tonight to Woodbury. Going to be a crazy section...

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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:13 am

Sparlimb wrote:
Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:24 pm
And Stillwater loses tonight to Woodbury. Going to be a crazy section...
Yeah, the wheels are coming off a bit for the Ponies of late. They started the season 8-2-1 with wins over Maple Grove, White Bear, Mahtomedi, and a tie against Duluth East (which by the way is looking rock solid of late). Have gone 2-4-2 since. I don't think their last 8 games are that far off from their first 11 - they just aren't going to blow the doors off anyone so the margin of error between winning and losing is pretty small.

Crazy stat of the day, and to my point above: Stillwater has played in SEVEN overtime games this year (3-1-3). Thats a lot! 37% of their games this year have gone to OT. So expect a couple of close games in sections from this team...and they aren't awful in those scenarios, given that they've only lost 1 of their 7 OT games this year.
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Fri Feb 03, 2023 6:15 pm

Yes indeed, the Ponies seem to be stumbling, and the Bears have had a misfire of their own of late, as well.
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by BlueLineSpecial » Fri Feb 03, 2023 8:42 pm

And of course I look at YHH twitter tonight and they basically said the exact same thing I said about Stillwater, just a day earlier :?
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by Nostalgic Nerd » Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:18 am

Think I still wouldn't want to face that #1 line from Andover. :!: [-X
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/29/23

Post by Nostalgic Nerd » Sun Feb 05, 2023 4:26 am

How does the Tonka goalie stack up vs others, or is it mostly D doing it?
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