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With one week left in the regular season, my work here is nearly done. The very top remains straightforward, but after that, chaos reigns, which means we should be in for some juicy playoff results. Here’s how it all stacks up for now:

1. Minnetonka (21-2)
-The Skippers just keep winning, and even if their visit to Braemar to face Edina wasn’t the bold statement the first meeting was, it was enough. They are the undisputed regular season number one and will wear that crown headed into sections. Their last serious test: rival Eden Prairie, a team they may meet in said section playoffs, and who gave them a one-goal game in the first meeting.
This week: Thurs vs. Eden Prairie, Sat at St. Michael-Albertville

2. Edina (16-5-1)
-The Hornets fought Minnetonka down to the wire on Saturday, which certainly isn’t going to cost them the 2-spot here given everything else that’s going on. A battle for the top seed in 6AA wraps up their regular season; winning it would be a huge prize, given the opportunity to avoid Benilde in the semis.
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat at #3 Wayzata

3. Wayzata (16-5-2)
-How to fill a spot that has become an absolute black hole in these rankings? With an old standby, of course! The Trojans found their feet this past week after a rough stretch, beating St. Michael-Albertville before shutting down Eden Prairie for a good conference win; their credentials still put them up here, though recent play is obviously of concern. They’re one of many good teams with a tough final week that will both make or break their seeding position and give them a chance to show they are the consistently strong team they looked for much of the season. More lapses, on the other hand, would just add to the mess.
This week: Thurs at #8 Rogers, Sat vs. #2 Edina

4. Maple Grove (17-5-1)
-The Crimson stabilized some things win a win over Andover this past week, ending a bumpy run, and while there are still some concerns about their performance against section opponents, it’s hard to argue with the overall résumé at this point. Like Wayzata, they get some benefit of the doubt based on body of work in a chaotic week. If they play to their potential, a fourth straight Tourney berth is well within reach. They have two very tough defensive tests in the season’s final week, so we’ll get a good handle on whether they’re finding themselves or seem vulnerable heading into a tough section.
This week: Tues vs. Hill-Murray, Sat at #6 St. Thomas Academy

5. Andover (17-6-1)
-A second loss to Maple Grove leaves the Huskies winless against the Crimson and Rogers in the Northwest Suburban, leaving us with the same questions we’ve had about this group since December. They have beaten everyone else in the conference, and will look to maintain that positioning when they visit Centennial in their final regular season tilt.
This week: Thurs at Centennial

6. St. Thomas Academy (17-6)
-The Cadets’ strong recent push hit a road bump (or, rather, a Pony) this past week as they gave up an uncharacteristic four goals to Stillwater. They got right back to their defensive ways by shutting out Hill-Murray, and for the most part seem to be playing the style of hockey they want to play. Now, can they cap off the regular season by clamping down on the Maple Grove attack?
This week: Thurs vs. Two Rivers, Sat vs. #4 Maple Grove

7. Duluth East (17-6-1)
-The Hounds keep finding ways, as they pulled off a late comeback against Champlin Park and then bunkered down well enough to hold off Rogers. Those two quality wins put an exclamation point on an impressive late-season run and finally get them into the top 10. They’ve now made their case for the top seed in 7AA and, unlike many teams, have a light final week.
This week: Tues at St. Cloud

8. Rogers (15-5-3)
-There is a lot to like about the Royals, whose defensive corps may be the state’s best and whose forwards can control play, but that did not always show this week, as they mustered just one goal each in games at Moorhead and Duluth East. A tough final week including a Stillwater team that plays most opponents tight and a Wayzata defense will be a good barometer on how much optimism we should have around this team heading into section.
This week: Tues vs. Stillwater, Thurs vs. #3 Wayzata

9. Chanhassen (20-3)
-A loss to Gentry sets off some alarm bells for the Storm, who had been taking care of business against that level of competition until now. They did rebound with an impressive showing against Orono, but a top five spot requires more than that, and this loss, coupled with the Benilde loss, certainly raises some questions. Is this just who this team is? The Benilde rematch will be telling.
This week: Tues vs. #12 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Delano

10. Lakeville South (16-5-1)
-The Cougars continue to quietly build, sitting pretty atop 1AA and able to just prepare for the postseason. They have a three-game final week against the South Suburban’s large middle tier, including a hot Rosemount team, a not hot Eastview team, and a Prior Lake team somewhere in between.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Rosemount, Thurs at Eastview, Fri vs. Prior Lake

11. White Bear Lake (16-5)
-A win over surging Stillwater strengthens the Bears’ seeding positioning and has them edging upward. A busy week gives them a shot to avenge a loss to Cretin and also presents them with a Rosemount team that is building impressively toward the end of the season.
This week: Tues at #13 Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs at #15 Rosemount, Fri at Blaine

12. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (16-7)
-The Red Knights had a rough road trip north, as they got shellacked by Hermantown and even let Grand Rapids back into a game that they had seemed to have locked up early. For all their gaudy scores, it’s tough to have faith in a team that struggles this much defensively. We’ll see if they can back up that first win against Chanhassen now.
This week: Tues at #9 Chanhassen, Fri at New Prague

13. Cretin-Derham Hall (15-8-1)
-The Raiders did not hold up well against Stillwater and have now lost four of their last six, their ongoing struggle to find a groove down the stretch costing them any shot at the top seed in 3AA and raising some larger questions. A rematch with White Bear will be big for their confidence as they close out their schedule.
This week: Tues vs. #11 White Bear Lake

14. Moorhead (14-9)
-The Spuds are swinging upward as they head toward sections, having now won five in a row, with the win over Rogers as the headliner; handling Sartell is also a good sign against a likely higher seed in 8AA. The last week will say a lot, as they rematch with a Roseau team they handled the first time around for the top spot in the section and then have to deal with the Hill-Murray lockdown scheme.
This week: Tues vs. Roseau, Sat at Hill-Murray

15. Rosemount (13-9-1)
-The Irish had a huge week this past week, dispatching of three teams that had been ranked ahead of them (Eastview, Shakopee, and Centennial), and are now 8-0-1 in their last nine. With Cretin and Eastview both on the skids and St. Thomas doubling down on a low-scoring style, it’s not crazy to think they’re on to something here. If they can do things against Lakeville South and White Bear Lake this week, look out.
This week: Tues at #10 Lakeville South, Thurs at #11 White Bear Lake, Sat at Eagan

The Next Ten

Holy Family (18-5)
-Flying along against lesser competition, which is fine but not helpful in the grand scheme of things, so I’ve dropped them from the top 15 in favor of two teams that are collecting quality wins. Stillwater provides one final test of some magnitude.

Hill-Murray (11-11-1)
-The Pioneers actually found a bit of offense when they erupted for eight against Blake, but after that it was back the regularly scheduled tight-checking struggle through a one-goal game with a top team. They seem close to being very good, perhaps close enough to win 4AA, but they’re going to need to find just a few more goals. The tough schedule goes all the way to the end with Maple Grove and Moorhead up this week.

Eden Prairie (11-11-1)
-The Eagles are here in the collection of .500 state powers, down but still threatening, though this past week’s loss to Wayzata was a slight step back for a team that had been seeming increasingly competitive down the stretch. We’ll see if they can do anything in their Minnetonka rematch, and they follow that with a Buffalo team that gave them a one-goal game in the last meeting.

Champlin Park (15-8)
-The Rebels let a win slip away against Duluth East, leaving them on the fringes here in spite of their dangerous showing along the course of the season. Their game with Gentry this week is intriguing, and Mounds View isn’t a free pass, either.

Stillwater (13-7-3)
-The overtime specialists had a strong week, beating the two 3AA frontrunners before succumbing to White Bear in a game that likely consigned them to the 3-seed in 4AA. They can certainly trouble anyone, but can they string together a couple of wins in sections? Things don’t get any easier this week, with Rogers and Holy Family on the docket.

Gentry Academy (14-8)
-The Stars have been up and down this season, but a late win over Chanhassen shows the have some real high end potential and a shot at winning a pretty open 4AA. If they can beat Champlin this week, it’ll be a sure sign they’re on to something.

Roseau (14-8-1)
-The Rams lost to Grand Forks Red River, which doesn’t help them but also isn’t catastrophic when said opponent has also beaten Holy Family. Their seeming improvement over the course of the season is all on the line this week when they visit Moorhead for the top spot in 8AA, and they also get a chance to avenge a loss to a quality East Grand Forks team.

Centennial (13-9-1)
-The Cougars are heading the wrong direction as they wrap up their regular season, losing to Elk River and Rosemount to tumble well out of the top 15. The firepower is still there to cause some problems, but I question whether they have enough horses to hang with the their three deep section rivals. The Blake game this week isn’t a free pass, and after that they have a chance to show something again in a finale with Andover.

Shakopee (14-8)
-The Sabers probably should have done better than a split with Prior Lake, but it goes to show how open 2AA is; the loss to Rosemount, while not helpful, isn’t horrid given the Irish surge. A regular season-ending battle with Eastview will probably get the winner a top 25 spot.

Buffalo (12-9-2)
-The Bison have come back to earth some after their recent surge, losing to Edina and struggling to put away lowly Bloomington Jefferson. A battle with Sartell this week will likely decide the 3-seed in 8AA, and Eden Prairie gives them one last shot at a good win, too.

Here’s one last attempt to preview section seeding:

1AA
10 Lakeville South
Rochester Mayo
Lakeville North
Hastings
-Mayo broke up the Lakeville cartel with a win over North to stake a solid claim to the 2-seed; now we’ll see if they can repeat that and make a section final, which a later loss to Century suggests is far from a given. North won comfortably over Hastings, so this one should be locked in. There’s a scrappy second tier here including Century, Owatonna, and even John Marshall, and none of the 2-4 seeds are such certain things that they can take their quarterfinals for granted. A surprise semi appearance is not out of the question here.

2AA
9 Chanhassen
1 Minnetonka
24 Shakopee
16 Holy Family
18 Eden Prairie
-This is probably the toughest section to predict. Chanhassen has the head-to-head win over the Skippers, so based strictly on results should be on top, but the Skippers’ résumé clearly speaks for itself. Shakopee’s Prior Lake loss this past week does ding them a bit, but they have also beaten the Lakers twice and beat Holy Family, so I think that’s enough for the 3-seed, which sets off some transitive logic down the line through Holy Family and Eden Prairie. Prior Lake and Chaska follow as tough outs in quarterfinals. The only effect I see this week’s Eden Prairie-Tonka game having is locking the Skippers in at 2 if the Eagles win.

3AA
6 St. Thomas Academy
13 Cretin-Derham Hall
15 Rosemount
Eastview
-Rosemount’s second win over Eastview drops the Lightning to the 4-seed and may also have saved Cretin some questioning over its 2-seed credentials. This would seem to be locked in, with relatively little likelihood of a quarterfinal upset given the gap between these four and the rest.

4AA
17 Hill-Murray
11 White Bear Lake
20 Stillwater
21 Gentry Academy
-As in 2AA, there is room for debate over whether Hill’s win (especially given its circumstances) is enough to overcome White Bear’s better regular season for the top seed. As a believer in on-ice results I lean toward yes, but wouldn’t be shocked to see otherwise. Up-and-down Stillwater should be safe at the 3-seed. Gentry’s win over Chanhassen solidifies their 4-seed credentials, but I don’t think they’ve done enough to otherwise go higher. East Ridge, Woodbury, and Roseville all lurk.

5AA
8 Rogers
19 Champlin Park
23 Centennial
4 Maple Grove
-Rogers’ win over Maple Grove should seal up the top spot, and now the question is whether the coaches stick with the head-to-head results, which would yield the order above, or go more on body of work and slide the Crimson up, a possibility I now find more likely with Centennial tailing off some at the end here. Either way, it sets the stage for two very good semifinals. Mounds View should be the 5-seed in this one.

6AA
2 Edina
3 Wayzata
12 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
St. Louis Park
-A date between Edina and Wayzata on the regular season’s final day will decide the ordering of the top two seeds, which means a lot in this section, where Benilde lurks as the 3. The 4-seed remains a somewhat open question; Holy Angels has probably had the best overall season, but they lost to St. Louis Park head-to-head, so I’m leaning Orioles here. Regardless, those two should play in the quarterfinals, leaving Blake, who has lost to Holy Angels, with the first round date with Benilde.

7AA
7 Duluth East
5 Andover
Grand Rapids
Cloquet
-Duluth East’s late surge should theoretically be enough for the head-to-head win to tip the scales and give the Hounds the top spot, though we’ll see if Andover’s past accomplishments have any clout. The 3- and 4-seeds should be locked in, though Coon Rapids may argue for a 4 since the Cardinals did beat Cloquet in the regular season; while neither is quite in the top 25 right now, both look capable of at least frustrating the top two.

8AA
14 Moorhead
22 Roseau
Sartell
25 Buffalo
-While this section has been in tumult throughout, I do think these teams are the top four. Tuesday will do a lot to settle the order, as Roseau and Moorhead meet to settle 1 vs. 2 and Sartell and Buffalo collide to set 3 vs. 4. Not that any of that makes life easier: Elk River’s win over Centennial this week shows they can topple either of those two teams, Bemidji has been respectable, and even St. Cloud and Brainerd have put up some competitive results in section play.

When you realize that if you go off Karl's rankings and they both make it to state STA and East would play each other in the 4/5 game...Juicy.

Edit and 2nd glance perhaps not?One would like bump up to 3 if it were to play out that way.

karl(east) wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 7:47 am
7AA
7 Duluth East
5 Andover
Grand Rapids
Cloquet
-Duluth East’s late surge should theoretically be enough for the head-to-head win to tip the scales and give the Hounds the top spot, though we’ll see if Andover’s past accomplishments have any clout. The 3- and 4-seeds should be locked in, though Coon Rapids may argue for a 4 since the Cardinals did beat Cloquet in the regular season; while neither is quite in the top 25 right now, both look capable of at least frustrating the top two.

Duluth East at the #1 seed ought to be a done deal at this point.

Consider these common opponents of Andover and East: Minnetonka, Grand Rapids, Champlin Park, Centennial, Rogers and Wayzata - the better ('at-large' and section) common opponents. Andover went 3-2-1 against that group (with a game left vs Centennial). East went 4-3. Essentially a wash.

Including when East beat Andover on 12/20/22, the Hounds have gone 14-1-1; Andover 13-3. Excellent records for both. Yes, the strength of schedule argument probably tips Andover's way, but their record against better competition afforded them is not stellar. The only measure between the two clubs might then boil down to the head-to-head - a convincing 5-1 East victory. That should be enough to give the Hounds the top seed.

Alright, alright, let's just tap the brakes on WB and their record being better than Hill's.

Using the Hockeyhub rankings, Hill will have played ten games against the current top ten teams. WB will play none of them. We don't need to be rewarding soft schedules that result in gaudy records. There is certainly an argument to be made for WB to be the 1 seed. It's a pretty close call either way. But it's nonsense to compare the overall records of Hill and WB.

I could almost say the same thing for Chanhassen and Minnetonka. Chanhassen beat Tonka back on Dec 10, and Tonka has a 12 game win streak going. Placing Chanhassen ahead of Tonka based solely or primarily on a single game played two months ago just doesn't seem wise. If we ran a poll here on who would win a rematch today, I bet it would be 75-25 in favor of Tonka. Tonka is the odds on favorite to win that section.

I can see Hill losing to WB, or Stillwater, or even Gentry. I could also see them going on a nice run, even making it to Friday night at the X, if the planets align. I'd bet on something in between. Last night's contest with STA was more even than I wanted it to be, and while I wouldn't say it was a bad omen, it was not the reassurance I was looking for in the waning days of the schedule. It's too bad it was decided by one bad play right in front of Erickson.

Centennial should NOT be seeded higher than Maple Grove. They split their series this year—MG winning first game 4-2 and Centennial winning second game 7-6 in OT—Maple Grove’s overall body of work crushes Centennial’s, and Centennial is sputtering down the stretch. The only way Centennial gets seeded higher is if 5AA coaches (outside of Rogers and MG) “stick it” to MG for being 3-time defending section champs and kicking their butts for so many years by setting up a Rogers v. MG semifinal. That would be unfortunate, and it’s why coaches shouldn’t be deciding the seeds.

SpreadOut! wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 3:50 pm Centennial should NOT be seeded higher than Maple Grove. They split their series this year—MG winning first game 4-2 and Centennial winning second game 7-6 in OT—Maple Grove’s overall body of work crushes Centennial’s, and Centennial is sputtering down the stretch. The only way Centennial gets seeded higher is if 5AA coaches (outside of Rogers and MG) “stick it” to MG for being 3-time defending section champs and kicking their butts for so many years by setting up a Rogers v. MG semifinal. That would be unfortunate, and it’s why coaches shouldn’t be deciding the seeds.

If not the coaches, then what? QRF?

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 5:35 pm

SpreadOut! wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 3:50 pm Centennial should NOT be seeded higher than Maple Grove. They split their series this year—MG winning first game 4-2 and Centennial winning second game 7-6 in OT—Maple Grove’s overall body of work crushes Centennial’s, and Centennial is sputtering down the stretch. The only way Centennial gets seeded higher is if 5AA coaches (outside of Rogers and MG) “stick it” to MG for being 3-time defending section champs and kicking their butts for so many years by setting up a Rogers v. MG semifinal. That would be unfortunate, and it’s why coaches shouldn’t be deciding the seeds.

If not the coaches, then what? QRF?

Lee

Computer system like Pairwise in NCAA (Pagestat?), press, Karl, anything but coaches.

Would either of Chan and Tonka secretly not deeply covet the #1 assuming EP stays at 5 and likely wins their section QF game? EP could be a sleeper based upon more recent results.

Karl- perhaps you've written about this and I've missed it, but curious to get your thoughts around the Hounds season. Did you expect them to be this good? If not, what do you chalk it up to?

In looking back at your preseason rankings, here are teams where their current ranking is notably different than the preseason ranking. And by no means is this meant to say you 'missed' - quite the contrary most of the rankings have held up remarkably well. There's always a few teams that we didn't expect to do as well (or poorly) as they actually did. DE being one of those.

Duluth East
Preseason rank: 24
Current: 7

Moorhead
Preseason rank: 6
Current: 14
**really not that far off and the Spuds seem to be turning the corner

St Thomas
Present rank: 15
Current: 6

mnmouth wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:34 am

karl(east) wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 7:47 am
7AA
7 Duluth East
5 Andover
Grand Rapids
Cloquet
-Duluth East’s late surge should theoretically be enough for the head-to-head win to tip the scales and give the Hounds the top spot, though we’ll see if Andover’s past accomplishments have any clout. The 3- and 4-seeds should be locked in, though Coon Rapids may argue for a 4 since the Cardinals did beat Cloquet in the regular season; while neither is quite in the top 25 right now, both look capable of at least frustrating the top two.

Duluth East at the #1 seed ought to be a done deal at this point.

Consider these common opponents of Andover and East: Minnetonka, Grand Rapids, Champlin Park, Centennial, Rogers and Wayzata - the better ('at-large' and section) common opponents. Andover went 3-2-1 against that group (with a game left vs Centennial). East went 4-3. Essentially a wash.

Including when East beat Andover on 12/20/22, the Hounds have gone 14-1-1; Andover 13-3. Excellent records for both. Yes, the strength of schedule argument probably tips Andover's way, but their record against better competition afforded them is not stellar. The only measure between the two clubs might then boil down to the head-to-head - a convincing 5-1 East victory. That should be enough to give the Hounds the top seed.

You are probably correct and your logic above is sound. DE will anchor on that H2H rightfully so. Since it’s agreed the above games are wash Andover will likely anchor on wins vs Hill, BSM, Moorhead, and Chan. East next best outside of common opponents might be Cloquet or Brainerd.

With it being coaches vote I give 75% East is top spot, Andover 2, GR 3, then the rest.

Slap Shot wrote: ↑Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:22 am Would either of Chan and Tonka secretly not deeply covet the #1 assuming EP stays at 5 and likely wins their section QF game? EP could be a sleeper based upon more recent results.

No.

You want 1 to play Jefferson in quarters as opposed to 2 and get Chaska first round - especially Chan with the rivalry. Plus - in section final - you have last change.

BlueLineSpecial wrote: ↑Mon Feb 13, 2023 10:09 am Karl- perhaps you've written about this and I've missed it, but curious to get your thoughts around the Hounds season. Did you expect them to be this good? If not, what do you chalk it up to?

In looking back at your preseason rankings, here are teams where their current ranking is notably different than the preseason ranking. And by no means is this meant to say you 'missed' - quite the contrary most of the rankings have held up remarkably well. There's always a few teams that we didn't expect to do as well (or poorly) as they actually did. DE being one of those.

Duluth East
Preseason rank: 24
Current: 7

Moorhead
Preseason rank: 6
Current: 14
**really not that far off and the Spuds seem to be turning the corner

St Thomas
Present rank: 15
Current: 6

I talked around this question in a blog post last week, before the Rogers win: https://apatientcycle.com/2023/02/08/racing-hounds/

In short, I'd say I knew they could be better than I ranked them preseason, but didn't expect them to be quite this good. I may have been a bit more sour than the talent level called for given the way last season ended...though it's not like anyone else was hyping them more, either. There was always talent here, and if they'd finished the regular season with, say, 15 wins and a #15 ranking, I wouldn't have been shocked. What has surprised me are the wins over the likes of Andover and Rogers and really finding a new level down the stretch here. The factors that have made that possible include true breakout years by players like Cole Christian (who deserves to be a Mr. Hockey finalist) and Grant Winkler, and, I think, a wholesale cultural change from the toxicity of recent seasons. Winning obviously helps with that, but even when they were losing at the start of the season things felt different, and you can just see how that has built on itself.

Whatever happens the rest of the way, I can wholeheartedly say I have never had more fun being around East hockey than I have this season. I seriously considered road tripping to St. Cloud tonight for a meaningless regular season finale before a cold kept me home...that's not something I would have done before, even in the peak Worth/Donovan/LaMaster years! That's by no means a rip on any past seasons or groups of people; it's just that the program seems to have a critical mass of good kids and people around it, and people are perhaps even more likely to recognize the importance of that culture because they've been through the junk of the previous several years. That cultural piece is impossible to quantify, but I've grown more convinced of its importance after watching this program go to hell and back. It's been gratifying to see them come out of the tunnel.

BP wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:10 am

Slap Shot wrote: ↑Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:22 am Would either of Chan and Tonka secretly not deeply covet the #1 assuming EP stays at 5 and likely wins their section QF game? EP could be a sleeper based upon more recent results.

No.

You want 1 to play Jefferson in quarters as opposed to 2 and get Chaska first round - especially Chan with the rivalry. Plus - in section final - you have last change.

I'd be more worried about EP than Chaska. In the end I suspect both are vying for the 1 but it's not an illogical thought.

Slap Shot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:52 pm

BP wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:10 am

Slap Shot wrote: ↑Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:22 am Would either of Chan and Tonka secretly not deeply covet the #1 assuming EP stays at 5 and likely wins their section QF game? EP could be a sleeper based upon more recent results.

No.

You want 1 to play Jefferson in quarters as opposed to 2 and get Chaska first round - especially Chan with the rivalry. Plus - in section final - you have last change.

I'd be more worried about EP than Chaska. In the end I suspect both are vying for the 1 but it's not an illogical thought.

I think Minnetonka would be tired of seeing EP at that point considering it would be the third matchup of the season. EP at least gave Tonka a game the first time around with the second matchup happening on Thursday. EP has been so up and down this year, you just don't know what team is going to show up. Yeah, they beat BSM, but then get outplayed by Wayzata. I don't know how much the Wayzata loss had to do with Twigs not behind the bench, but it was one of EP's worse performances all season.

Whichever team can avoid the HF Fire (assuming they get the #3 seed - that's where PageStat and QRF have them, no disrespect to Karl), is going to have an easier path to the finals. I don't see 4 through 8 having much of a chance to advance.

ryguyMN wrote: ↑Wed Feb 15, 2023 10:46 am

Slap Shot wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:52 pm

BP wrote: ↑Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:10 am

No.

You want 1 to play Jefferson in quarters as opposed to 2 and get Chaska first round - especially Chan with the rivalry. Plus - in section final - you have last change.

I'd be more worried about EP than Chaska. In the end I suspect both are vying for the 1 but it's not an illogical thought.

I think Minnetonka would be tired of seeing EP at that point considering it would be the third matchup of the season. EP at least gave Tonka a game the first time around with the second matchup happening on Thursday. EP has been so up and down this year, you just don't know what team is going to show up. Yeah, they beat BSM, but then get outplayed by Wayzata. I don't know how much the Wayzata loss had to do with Twigs not behind the bench, but it was one of EP's worse performances all season.

Whichever team can avoid the HF Fire (assuming they get the #3 seed - that's where PageStat and QRF have them, no disrespect to Karl), is going to have an easier path to the finals. I don't see 4 through 8 having much of a chance to advance.

I think Shakopee ends up with the 3 seed. Won the H2H meeting, stronger SOS (ranked 25 vs 41 for HF), and minimal difference in PageStat.

Hockeyfan911 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:12 pm

mnmouth wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:34 am

karl(east) wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 7:47 am
7AA
7 Duluth East
5 Andover
Grand Rapids
Cloquet
-Duluth East’s late surge should theoretically be enough for the head-to-head win to tip the scales and give the Hounds the top spot, though we’ll see if Andover’s past accomplishments have any clout. The 3- and 4-seeds should be locked in, though Coon Rapids may argue for a 4 since the Cardinals did beat Cloquet in the regular season; while neither is quite in the top 25 right now, both look capable of at least frustrating the top two.

Duluth East at the #1 seed ought to be a done deal at this point.

Consider these common opponents of Andover and East: Minnetonka, Grand Rapids, Champlin Park, Centennial, Rogers and Wayzata - the better ('at-large' and section) common opponents. Andover went 3-2-1 against that group (with a game left vs Centennial). East went 4-3. Essentially a wash.

Including when East beat Andover on 12/20/22, the Hounds have gone 14-1-1; Andover 13-3. Excellent records for both. Yes, the strength of schedule argument probably tips Andover's way, but their record against better competition afforded them is not stellar. The only measure between the two clubs might then boil down to the head-to-head - a convincing 5-1 East victory. That should be enough to give the Hounds the top seed.

You are probably correct and your logic above is sound. DE will anchor on that H2H rightfully so. Since it’s agreed the above games are wash Andover will likely anchor on wins vs Hill, BSM, Moorhead, and Chan. East next best outside of common opponents might be Cloquet or Brainerd.

With it being coaches vote I give 75% East is top spot, Andover 2, GR 3, then the rest.

Official Section 7AA seeds:
1. Duluth East
2. Andover
3. Grand Rapids
4. Cloquet/Esko/Carlton
5. Coon Rapids
6. Forest Lake
7. Duluth Marshall
8. Blaine
9. Anoka
10. Northern Edge

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote: ↑Sun Feb 12, 2023 11:55 am Alright, alright, let's just tap the brakes on WB and their record being better than Hill's.

Using the Hockeyhub rankings, Hill will have played ten games against the current top ten teams. WB will play none of them. We don't need to be rewarding soft schedules that result in gaudy records. There is certainly an argument to be made for WB to be the 1 seed. It's a pretty close call either way. But it's nonsense to compare the overall records of Hill and WB.

I could almost say the same thing for Chanhassen and Minnetonka. Chanhassen beat Tonka back on Dec 10, and Tonka has a 12 game win streak going. Placing Chanhassen ahead of Tonka based solely or primarily on a single game played two months ago just doesn't seem wise. If we ran a poll here on who would win a rematch today, I bet it would be 75-25 in favor of Tonka. Tonka is the odds on favorite to win that section.

I can see Hill losing to WB, or Stillwater, or even Gentry. I could also see them going on a nice run, even making it to Friday night at the X, if the planets align. I'd bet on something in between. Last night's contest with STA was more even than I wanted it to be, and while I wouldn't say it was a bad omen, it was not the reassurance I was looking for in the waning days of the schedule. It's too bad it was decided by one bad play right in front of Erickson.

I would be surprised if WBL didn't get the one seed. As I recall, East Side Guy is the same guy who said "That's why the MSHSL should make these games exhibition contests. And they should have no bearing on any post-season seeding," when referring to the Hockey Day matchup. And it's not like it was a dominant showing by Hill anyways - the Bears had the game in hand before coughing it up at the end. I truly believe if they played twice this season, it would be a split.

That said, I understand the "Hill has a tougher schedule" argument. But, they still lost a lot of the games on said schedule. Sure, they were close, but a loss is a loss (except when it comes to Hockey Day, apparently.) Their only real "good wins" were Mahtomedi twice and White Bear Lake. Let's not forget they also barely beat Two Rivers and 6-18 Tartan were able to hang with them.

On the other side, White Bear has good wins over Duluth East, Cretin, Stillwater, Centennial, and Champlin Park. And have been ahead of Hill on most rankings for the majority of the season.