AA Rankings for 1/14/24

[karl(east)]

Last week I called it a week of cream rising to the top, and this week felt similar, with the top four staying firmly put and another early favorite jumping back up to the 5-spot. Beyond that? Yikes. Lake Conference play starts in earnest this week, so we’ll see if that can cause any disruption toward the top. Your rankings:

1. Minnetonka (14-0-1)
-By their lofty standards it was not the Skippers’ finest week, as they failed to blow Buffalo and Duluth East out of the water, but by anyone else’s standards it was a perfectly fine showing. Lake Conference play now ramps up, beginning with a state championship game rematch against one of the few teams that can give them a run on paper; surging Eden Prairie, which has already surprised Wayzata with a tie, comes after. Just how dominant is this group?
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat vs. #9 Eden Prairie

2. Wayzata (13-0-2)
-The Trojans dispatched of St. Michael-Albertville in their only game last week, and will look to do the same against Buffalo this week. Their midseason lull will then come to a close before things start to get exciting again.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo

3. Edina (13-2)
-The Hornets avenged an earlier loss to St. Thomas, though they had a bit of an adventure with Buffalo after that, which has been the Hornets’ story so far: clearly skilled enough to collect many quality wins, but with regular enough wobbles to leave some questions. Now, are they in the same class as Wayzata and able to go stride for stride with Minnetonka, or is the gap between the second and third spots in these rankings as large as it has appeared all season?
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. St. Michael-Albertville

4. Chanhassen (13-4)
-No great troubles for the Storm against teams they should beat. Just one game this week, but it’s a big one for the conference race; their two contests with the Red Knights are their last remaining games against top ten teams.
This week: Sat at #10 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

5. Rogers (10-4-2)
-The Royals had a big week, handling Maple Grove in solid fashion and edging past upset-minded Champlin Park. Of course they beat the Crimson in the regular season last year too, so this doesn’t guarantee them anything, but it does show what this team can be when it plays up to its potential, and with an apocalypse in the 5-9 portion of the rankings this past week, they go leaping up. Centennial, whom they play this week, has been putting up some quality results lately.
This week: Thurs at Osseo, Sat vs. Centennial

6. Maple Grove (10-4)
-The loss to Rogers shows the Crimson aren’t quite in the same league as the Royals talent-wise, though it would be folly to count them out. Up next: two teams in the second tier of the Northwest Suburban that are capable of making things interesting in a pinch.
This week: Thurs vs. Champlin Park, Sat at Elk River

7. Shakopee (12-3-1)
-A 2-0 shutout of Rosemount has the Sabers back up in the top ten and, with a fairly forgiving schedule down the stretch, sitting nicely for a good run. They’ve got a couple of one-game weeks ahead of them, with this week’s being pretty straightforward.
This week: Sat vs. Lakeville North

8. St. Thomas Academy (10-5-1)
-The Cadets had a reality check week with losses to Hill and Edina. They’ve compiled some quality wins, but they are beatable by teams who can stand up to their tough defense, and will need to show some versatility to make a truly deep run. Surging Stillwater is an interesting test this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat vs. #15 Stillwater

9. Eden Prairie (9-4-1)
-Here come the Eagles? After a win over Benilde, they’re surging their way upward; PageStat has liked them all season, so maybe they truly are a top ten team. The ultimate test of this surge comes this Saturday, but first they have to contend with pesky Mahtomedi.
This week: Wed at Mahtomedi, Sat at #1 Minnetonka

10. Benilde-St. Maragaret’s (10-3-1)
-The Red Knights got shut out by Eden Prairie, and suddenly that win over Edina is starting to look a bit distant in the rearview mirror. They’re plenty solid, but was that jump into the top 5 an early season illusion? Their date with Chanhassen will tell us something about that.
This week: Thurs at Chaska, Sat vs. #4 Chanhassen

11. Andover (10-5-1)
-A tie with Centennial doesn’t really help the Huskies’ cause, though they bounced back to handle Totino smoothly and continue to hang about the 10-spot in these rankings. They now head into an easier stretch in their schedule.
This week: Sat at Anoka

12. Rosemount (11-5)
-The Irish fell to aforementioned Shakopee but rebounded with a drubbing of Lakeville South to reaffirm their credentials in here. They now get to spend some time rolling through the underbelly of the South Suburban before they get back to teams that appear in these rankings.
This week: Tues at Eagan, Fri at Apple Valley/Burnsville

13. Holy Family (7-4-1)
-The Fire’s downward turn continued this past week with a loss to a Delano team that, while good for Class A, would not crack a AA top 15. Yes, they were down some players, but the lack of discipline that left them in that situation seems to be a theme. Is this group being exposed now? Holy Angels this week will be telling.
This week: Tues vs. Holy Angels, Thurs vs. Mound-Westonka, Fri at Sartell

14. Eastview (9-6)
-The Lightning took care of Lakeville North before surviving an adventure with Apple Valley/Burnsville. Tuesday brings an interesting one with a limping Cretin squad.
This week: Tues vs. Cretin-Derham Hall, Sat at Eagan

15. Stillwater (7-5)
-The Ponies took care of Cretin, a second recent thumping of a Suburban East frontrunner that has them surging up the table and, just maybe, has them as the frontrunner in 4AA. We’ll learn just how real that is when they head to Aldrich this week.
This week: Tues at Hill-Murray

The Next Ten

Gentry Academy (14-3)
-Lakeville North gave the Stars a bit of a push this week, and with Stillwater surging, they drop to accommodate the Ponies. The wins should keep coming when they face Rochester Lourdes next.

Hill-Murray (7-5-2)
-The Pioneers restored some order after a rough stretch by collecting a solid win over St. Thomas. They battle Stillwater this week in a crucial 4AA test, and they pay a visit to Grand Rapids, too.

Centennial (8-4-2)
-The Cougars continued a quality run with a tie against Andover, which boosts their stock some, and took care of a couple weaker opponents, too. We’ll see what they can make of Rogers this week.

Lakeville South (8-6)
-The Cougars got battered by Rosemount, blunting some of their progress up these rankings. Prior Lake and Delano this week are the sorts of teams who could trip them up if they’re not careful.

White Bear Lake (9-3-1)
-Things didn’t come easily for the Bears against Park and Woodbury, but they got the job done and collected the wins. A busy week ahead includes a road trip north to face Grand Rapids and Hermantown.

Roseau (12-3)
-The Rams had a big week, knocking off Warroad in their first meeting with the new number one in Class A before winning a couple of section games, easing some of the concerns over early losses to 8AA teams. They’ve rattled off eight in a row now, and the skill is here to do some interesting stuff. They get another Class A power this week when they visit East Grand Forks.

Moorhead (5-9-1)
-The record may be brutal, but every single one of those losses is to a team ranked **BSM** or higher, and with wins over Roseau and Grand Rapids, their résumé is more stable than a lot of the other teams floating around here. Their only action this week comes against St. Cloud.

Champlin Park (8-7-1)
-After a competitive showing against Rogers, a rough loss to Elk River whacks the Rebels’ ranking. They have enough decent wins to stay afloat here, but this bears watching. It doesn’t get much easier this week, with Maple Grove up next.

Rock Ridge (12-2-1)
-The Wolverines remain one of the harder teams to rank here with their Class A-dominated schedule, and a close call with Cambridge doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, but the record is what it is; their losses are to the top two teams in Class A, and the tie is to Delano, so with no bad results and a nice record, they stay here. The next couple weeks will decide their section seeding fate, beginning with Duluth East this Saturday.

Grand Rapids (8-7)
-The Thunderhawks are just hanging on here after a loss to Moorhead; their win over Eden Prairie is mor impressive than anything Cretin or Holy Angels have, and the Elk River win suddenly matters in the rankings here, as the Elks just miss out, too. It’s 4AA week at Yanmar Arena, as White Bear and Hill both come to pay a visit; a win in either will help this group’s standing somewhat.

And now, the bi-weekly sections tour:

1AA
19 Lakeville South
New Prague
Lakeville North
Rochester Century/John Marshall
-Rosemount debacle aside, an improved stretch of hockey has South running far clear of the field here. New Prague had a decent showing against Orono this past week, and Trojans’ quality record may be enough for a 2-seed, whatever that’s worth. Century/John Marshall and Owatonna both have very good records and recently tied, so will likely round out the top five in some form; we’ll see if either does enough to dislodge North and its rough record from top 3 positioning. Absent the Cougars it’s a pretty competitive race here.

2AA
1 Minnetonka
4Chanhassen
7 Shakopee
9 Eden Prairie
13 Holy Family
-We can safely call the top two locks here, while the Shakopee-Holy Family tilt in three weeks could settle the 3-seed. Eden Prairie has the two games with Minnetonka to at least make an impression, and the win over Prior Lake could be useful if it’s between them and Shakopee, who lost to the Lakers, in the race to avoid the state’s toughest 4-5 game. Don’t expect much change here over the next two weeks.

3AA
8 St. Thomas Academy
14 Eastview
12 Rosemount
Park of Cottage Grove
-This section remains one of the harder ones to seed. St. Thomas may be doing enough to pull away and take the top spot despite the Eastview loss, and Eastview remains well-positioned for at least a 2-seed with wins over St. Thomas and Eastview. Cretin, meanwhile, clunks along, falling to 5-seed position after a loss to Park this past week.

4AA
15 Stillwater
16 Gentry Academy
17 Hill-Murray
20 White Bear Lake
-If we throw out the history and look honestly at what has transpired so far, this is the correct order here: Gentry and Stillwater are currently playing the best hockey of anyone in the section. Hill can correct course this week with a win over the Ponies, while a loss might lock in something like this order for the non-Gentry teams. The Stars, of course, remain an absolute wild card given their schedule, which won’t get any respect in a seeding meeting, though a couple of top ten games for them next week will say a lot more about where they stand.

5AA
5 Rogers
6 Maple Grove
23 Champlin Park
18 Centennial
-Rogers is now in the driver’s seat for the top seed after the big win over Maple Grove; for now, the order here is pretty clear. Centennial-Rogers, Maple Grove-Champlin, and Centennial-Champlin all take place over the next two weeks, so by the next check-in we may have a pretty firm order. Totino, meanwhile, has jumped into 5-seed positioning after knocking off inconsistent Coon Rapids.

6AA
2 Wayzata
10 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
3 Edina
Holy Angels
-Not much movement here, though Benilde’s drop in the rankings is opening the door for Edina to jump back into the 2-spot based on body of work. The first of the Edina-Wayzata meetings is next week, which has a chance to either lock this in further or potentially upend the race. There are only a few important games left here, but they all have a chance to change things.

7AA
11 Andover
24 Rock Ridge
25 Grand Rapids
Duluth Denfeld
-A second win over Duluth East has Grand Rapids sitting pretty for a top 3 seed, with a late shot at Andover giving them an outside shot at the top spot. Denfeld has the best body of work of the three Duluth schools in the 4-6 spots at the moment, though a loss to Little Falls this past week doesn’t help the cause. Duluth East, Rock Ridge, and Denfeld all play each other over the next two weeks (including two East-Rock Ridge meetings), which will clarify a lot in the middle of the standings here. We’ll throw in a shoutout to Cambridge-Isanti, which gave both Rock Ridge and Denfeld decent tests this past week, underscoring what a muddle this section is beyond Andover.

8AA
22 Moorhead
21 Roseau
Elk River
Sartell
-Once again, this is an utter cluster, though with Moorhead finally winning a decent non-section game and Roseau cleaning up some of the early mess it made in section games, those two are strengthening their spots toward the top. Elk River has surged into the picture in recent weeks with the tie against Rogers and big win over Champlin; if they can keep that going, they’ll have as good a shot of winning this thing as anybody. Sartell’s body of work isn’t as good as some of the other teams here, but the Sabers have fought well when it matters, earning the Moorhead tie and giving Roseau a good run this past week. As usual there are a pile of games here coming up, so stay tuned.

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Great job!

[headsupsticksdown]

How bout those Eagles? Still a ways to go, but they’ve surpassed my expectations of them already and am prepared to eat crow. Their goaltending and defense has been stellar, which has been the difference this year IMO.

Who else out there is beating expectations at this point?

[WarmUpTheBus]

How bout those Eagles? Still a ways to go, but they’ve surpassed my expectations of them already and am prepared to eat crow. Their goaltending and defense has been stellar, which has been the difference this year IMO.

Who else out there is beating expectations at this point?

Shakopee.

[ryguyMN]

How bout those Eagles? Still a ways to go, but they’ve surpassed my expectations of them already and am prepared to eat crow. Their goaltending and defense has been stellar, which has been the difference this year IMO.

Who else out there is beating expectations at this point?

I didn't see them breaking the top 10 for them either at the start with Townsend's departure. Moe's game as really come around this season and Saterdahlen has made strides. Rio Treharne kind of came out of nowhere. Alex Hall has been dependable again this season.

[ryguyMN]

How bout those Eagles? Still a ways to go, but they’ve surpassed my expectations of them already and am prepared to eat crow. Their goaltending and defense has been stellar, which has been the difference this year IMO.

Who else out there is beating expectations at this point?

Shakopee.

Shako has been the biggest surprise this season. I knew they had good goaltending after Huson stood on his head in the section semi last year in "SOG-Gate".