So where is the bottom...?

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:19 pm

We all know whats going on in the Financial world today, but my question is where is the bottom before we start to swing upward again..?
In Jan. of this year the DOW was in the 12100 area...today we are at 10700.

As some may remember at that time I said it I felt it was time for me to move to safer money for 6-9 months..well here we are 9 months later and I'm reading that even money market money may not be safe.

So what are the rest of you doing staying put...?
I suppose at this point it wouldn't make much sense to do anything if you stayed in stocks all along, because I feel we're nearing a bottom.
But for those that have been in safe harbor this year...I'd like to hear your opinions on re-entry to the broader market.

Oh yeah if ya just have to go political take your answers over there! TA

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:24 pm

Geez... When I saw the title of this thread, I thought it was about something else.

elliott70 · Post by **elliott70** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:29 pm

Most of my money is in commodoties.
You know, canned vegetables, etc....

Pay off your debt.

If you know business, find those stocks that are now undervlaued.

Some say buy gold (silver), but I don't agree.

Buy undervalued real estate.

Make sure you have a safety net of cash.

Evaluate yourself - short, 3 year, 7 year, 15 year plans.
Young children, college, weddings other specific needs.
Then I can help you more.

elliott70 · Post by **elliott70** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:31 pm

The bottom was over on the east side of St Paul, but recently shifted to the west side of Minneapolis - a suburb. WAY west.

EREmpireStrikesBack · Post by **EREmpireStrikesBack** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 3:50 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-aAitwm_yo

That's how I roll.

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 4:12 pm

elliott70 wrote:Most of my money is in commodoties.
You know, canned vegetables, etc....

Pay off your debt.

If you know business, find those stocks that are now undervlaued.

Some say buy gold (silver), but I don't agree.

Buy undervalued real estate.

Make sure you have a safety net of cash.

Evaluate yourself - short, 3 year, 7 year, 15 year plans.
Young children, college, weddings other specific needs.
Then I can help you more.

I would have guessed canned fruit!

Seriously though, what about the multitudes with 401K plans that can't really buy what you may call undervalued stocks, I agree gold is at or near it's high point, so that's not very attractive.

Paying off debt is always a good plan.

And at last check the market dropped another 100pts to 10600 so were at about a 12% drop in that 9 month period , and yes there were up swings too, but if you look at mutual fund prices, you will find very few that actually showed any value increase even in those brief up swings.
History and analyst say that a 20% drop over a sustained period is usually considered a bear market that's gone full cycle...will it drop to say 9700?... these are crazy times

Soon it's going to be bargain time..but when? or is it now?

DMom · Post by **DMom** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 5:03 pm

Can't Never Tried wrote:
elliott70 wrote:Most of my money is in commodoties.
You know, canned vegetables, etc....

Pay off your debt.

If you know business, find those stocks that are now undervlaued.

Some say buy gold (silver), but I don't agree.

Buy undervalued real estate.

Make sure you have a safety net of cash.

Evaluate yourself - short, 3 year, 7 year, 15 year plans.
Young children, college, weddings other specific needs.
Then I can help you more.
I would have guessed canned fruit!

PRUNES

it is sad, but if you go to themlsonline.com you can actually search houses in foreclosure and bank owned only. You know it's bad when they start giving you that info for free. Honestly, we can get a 200,000 house for 75, why wouldn't we buy it? Oh, yeah, ice bills.

tomASS · Post by **tomASS** » Wed Sep 17, 2008 6:58 pm

Can't Never Tried wrote:
elliott70 wrote:Most of my money is in commodoties.
You know, canned vegetables, etc....

Pay off your debt.

If you know business, find those stocks that are now undervlaued.

Some say buy gold (silver), but I don't agree.

Buy undervalued real estate.

Make sure you have a safety net of cash.

Evaluate yourself - short, 3 year, 7 year, 15 year plans.
Young children, college, weddings other specific needs.
Then I can help you more.
I would have guessed canned fruit!

Seriously though, what about the multitudes with 401K plans that can't really buy what you may call undervalued stocks, I agree gold is at or near it's high point, so that's not very attractive.

Paying off debt is always a good plan.

And at last check the market dropped another 100pts to 10600 so were at about a 12% drop in that 9 month period , and yes there were up swings too, but if you look at mutual fund prices, you will find very few that actually showed any value increase even in those brief up swings.
History and analyst say that a 20% drop over a sustained period is usually considered a bear market that's gone full cycle...will it drop to say 9700?... these are crazy times

Soon it's going to be bargain time..but when? or is it now?

Well don't buy AIG - it's now government owned, it's bound to go lower

Me thinks once it hits sub 10 and maybe as low as 9.8

The real retail price increases have not been felt yet by consumers. Most retailers when receiving a price increase from vendors will demand that they get 90 days to implement out to stores.

Expect a minimum 10% retail price increase for most products

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 10:50 am

Ouch below 10k first time in 4 yrs

Will it go below 9000?
I read an article last week that said it may go as low as 7000

Getting closer to a good time to buy back in

OGEE OGELTHORPE · Post by **OGEE OGELTHORPE** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 11:25 am

Can't Never Tried wrote:Ouch below 10k first time in 4 yrs
Will it go below 9000?
I read an article last week that said it may go as low as 7000

Getting closer to a good time to buy back in

Hold out from buying until it hits 5900. Thats the bottom.

The bailout is working.

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:27 pm

OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote:
Can't Never Tried wrote:Ouch below 10k first time in 4 yrs
Will it go below 9000?
I read an article last week that said it may go as low as 7000

Getting closer to a good time to buy back in
Hold out from buying until it hits 5900. Thats the bottom.

The bailout is working.

Gottcha OGEE you do know there is a difference between 5900 and 9500...right?

I think we found the bottom it's in that other thread about politics...good grief !

OGEE OGELTHORPE · Post by **OGEE OGELTHORPE** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:45 pm

Can't Never Tried wrote:
OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote:
Can't Never Tried wrote:Ouch below 10k first time in 4 yrs
Will it go below 9000?
I read an article last week that said it may go as low as 7000

Getting closer to a good time to buy back in
Hold out from buying until it hits 5900. Thats the bottom.

The bailout is working.
Gottcha OGEE you do know there is a difference between 5900 and 9500...right?

I think we found the bottom it's in that other thread about politics...good grief !

You lost me on that one CNT.

But I'm sure what ever you trying to say, it is funny.

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:00 pm

OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote:
Can't Never Tried wrote:
OGEE OGELTHORPE wrote: Hold out from buying until it hits 5900. Thats the bottom.

The bailout is working.
Gottcha OGEE you do know there is a difference between 5900 and 9500...right?

I think we found the bottom it's in that other thread about politics...good grief !

You lost me on that one CNT.

But I'm sure what ever you trying to say, it is funny.

It was related to the Birk plan math

Here's some interesting reading from Jan.08 http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic. ... ney#312668
it's locked but I'm chuckling a bit with my money safely tucked in a cash fund

Sheep huh??? More like shepard!

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:26 pm

Now under 9000

tomASS · Post by **tomASS** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:30 pm

Can't Never Tried wrote:Now under 9000

all I can hear is an echo, so the bottom is not yet in site.

AngusYoung · Post by **AngusYoung** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:32 pm

Typical of today's "investor". Say they understand volatility, but in their mind, that means an upward trend. If you want security and a return you can count on, go to your local (or Bader's) bank. Otherwise, stay out of investments that have, and will continue to go, up and down with economic cycles. If you have investments in stocks, mutual funds, etc., turn off your TV and radio and make your own decisions based on your timelines and appetite for true volatility. Don't be a lamb (baa, baa).

AY

tomASS · Post by **tomASS** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 2:33 pm

Can't Never Tried wrote: Here's some interesting reading from Jan.08 http://www.ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic. ... ney#312668
it's locked but I'm chuckling a bit with my money safely tucked in a cash fund
Sheep huh??? More like shepard!

BAAAAAA BAAAAA -

I also did some gold (took the fillings out)

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:06 pm

AngusYoung wrote:Typical of today's "investor". Say they understand volatility, but in their mind, that means an upward trend. If you want security and a return you can count on, go to your local (or Bader's) bank. Otherwise, stay out of investments that have, and will continue to go, up and down with economic cycles. If you have investments in stocks, mutual funds, etc., turn off your TV and radio and make your own decisions based on your timelines and appetite for true volatility. Don't be a lamb (baa, baa).

AY

Nice to see you chime in again AY here is what you said in Jan.

AngusYoung wrote: CNT - Let us all know when the correct time is to "jump back in". You must be a great market timer. How do you know when you get back in another "crisis" won't develop and stocks plummet further? There is a major difference between savers and investors - not right or wrong just different mentality.

AY

I'd say we're getting close to that time!

By the way that sheepish move I made back then.... has netted me a nice 4.5% gain over that period, not bad considering most are probably realizing a 15-25% drop in their portfolios values many of whom don't have the distant horizon for a recovery!
Call it luck if you want, but it made sense then and it looks right now! 8688 and falling.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:22 pm

So, at this level why do people sell?

Assuming you own stock that performs close to market, you are down about 40%.

Why sell now?

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:28 pm

packerboy wrote:So, at this level why do people sell?

Assuming you own stock that performs close to market, you are down about 40%.

Why sell now?

You shouldn't, you should be buying if anything, but when people see they lost 1/2 of their retirement savings they panic...and that's what's going on right now.
No good news to reverse course.
Most of these people don't have cash to buy lot's of stock now that it's low, their buying has been been through a sustained purchase program like IRA or 401K

Someone said 7000 was a pipe dream the other day, I think that it may be close to that, but we are very near the bottom IMO but assume your own risk!

AngusYoung · Post by **AngusYoung** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:29 pm

CNT(Baaa, Baaa) is our own Warren Buffet of MNHOCK!!

Just let us all know when its time to get back in to the market so we can all be fat and happy like you. They said it couldn't be done, but CNT claims that he CAN time the market - brilliant! Congrats on your money moves, but folks like you almost always miss out on the upward swings in the markets because they're still afraid the sky is falling. This too shall pass.

AY

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:33 pm

AngusYoung wrote:CNT(Baaa, Baaa) is our own Warren Buffet of MNHOCK!!

Just let us all know when its time to get back in to the market so we can all be fat and happy like you. They said it couldn't be done, but CNT claims that he CAN time the market - brilliant! Congrats on your money moves, but folks like you almost always miss out on the upward swings in the markets because they're still afraid the sky is falling. This too shall pass.

AY

No need to get snide now! or shall I say again?

And yes I agree about timing the market...but you only wish you would have done the same..because one move in a lifetime like this can make a huge difference in your end game, it will for me! and that's all that matters!

DMom · Post by **DMom** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:35 pm

I hope it passes soon, I can't believe how quickly it dropped right before close. Can't they suspend trading or something?

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:36 pm

To a certain degree I agree with AY but you cant make any money until you sell. Right now , the market is below where it was 10 years ago.

So, if you would have just bought the index and held on to it , you would have 10 years of nothing.

The market isnt like real estate.

They asked JD Rockefeller once how he made so much money in the stock market and he replied " I sold too soon".

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 3:45 pm

Stop selling!!!!