Wild4hockey wrote:This is more of a comment about the economy as a whole, but given the cafe readership this is just as good of a thread as starting a new one. I read an article yesterday that said the World economy and specifically the U.S. could be positioned to experience one of the five worst financial crisis in modern history. How do you feel about this? Is the government and Federal Reserve taking the appropriate steps to prevent this or is the sub-prime mess to wide reaching and destined to have very damaging effects to our economy no matter what the Fiscal and Monetary response is?
I moved all my money to safe investments today...I think that says how I feel.
And I wish I would have done it this past fall.
I went thru the 1987 and 2000 market dives and I'm not doing it again.
Today even with the 3/4 point drop in interest rate, the markets are down 1.3% for the dow and 2.1% for Nasdaq...so far, and after the dow being down 465 pts at one point today.What will tomorrow bring when they see the plan to stabilize or stimulate is not working. It's time to play it safe for a while for me, and find the right time to jump back in later.
Ignore the sheep mentality (read CNT) and stay in for the long term. The majority of Americans hear "buy low, sell high", but in practice they "buy high, sell low". Look back the past 80-90 years and you would see many periods where when going got tough, folks bailed out only to say, "If only I would have stayed in, or purchased more....". Remember to be a long-term investor in a short-term, sound bite world. That is, in fact, if you are a truly a long-term investor(definitely over 5yrs, closer to . Screw the rebate idea - that just puts us further in the red. This to shall pass.
AngusYoung wrote:Ignore the sheep mentality (read CNT) and stay in for the long term. The majority of Americans hear "buy low, sell high", but in practice they "buy high, sell low". Look back the past 80-90 years and you would see many periods where when going got tough, folks bailed out only to say, "If only I would have stayed in, or purchased more....". Remember to be a long-term investor in a short-term, sound bite world. That is, in fact, if you are a truly a long-term investor(definitely over 5yrs, closer to . Screw the rebate idea - that just puts us further in the red. This to shall pass.
AY
I agree with AY to a point.
However, the buy and hold philosphy can kill you if you think you can pick individual stocks. Take your profits now. They asked a prominent financial figure once how he made money in the stock market and his response was "I sold too soon".
IRA's, 401Ks , etc absolutely. Throw your money in , as much as you can, and forget about it.
AngusYoung wrote:Ignore the sheep mentality (read CNT) and stay in for the long term. The majority of Americans hear "buy low, sell high", but in practice they "buy high, sell low". Look back the past 80-90 years and you would see many periods where when going got tough, folks bailed out only to say, "If only I would have stayed in, or purchased more....". Remember to be a long-term investor in a short-term, sound bite world. That is, in fact, if you are a truly a long-term investor(definitely over 5yrs, closer to . Screw the rebate idea - that just puts us further in the red. This to shall pass.
AY
Yes, I did stay in both times Angus, and even with aggressive investing it took way to long to get "all square", it's not about getting out for ever, it's knowing that you can put your money in safe harbor for a while until this mortgage thing works its way out, watch this market plummet and then buy back in cheap without suffering the loss.
Sheep my axe that's what all the brokers want you to do, you stay in while they get out... oh that's right they're not selling, the market is just going down for a magical reason.
Enjoy your losses AY, I'll be buying that stock back your holding for a lot less in six to 9 months and a lot more shares.
AngusYoung wrote:Ignore the sheep mentality (read CNT) and stay in for the long term. The majority of Americans hear "buy low, sell high", but in practice they "buy high, sell low". Look back the past 80-90 years and you would see many periods where when going got tough, folks bailed out only to say, "If only I would have stayed in, or purchased more....". Remember to be a long-term investor in a short-term, sound bite world. That is, in fact, if you are a truly a long-term investor(definitely over 5yrs, closer to . Screw the rebate idea - that just puts us further in the red. This to shall pass.
AY
I agree with AY to a point.
However, the buy and hold philosphy can kill you if you think you can pick individual stocks. Take your profits now. They asked a prominent financial figure once how he made money in the stock market and his response was "I sold too soon".
IRA's, 401Ks , etc absolutely. Throw your money in , as much as you can, and forget about it.
As far as 401Ks keep putting in no doubt, the match you get is worth it alone.
But even in these accounts, most have the ability to move their money within the funds available to them, and all have safe accounts you can utilize short term.
CNT - Let us all know when the correct time is to "jump back in". You must be a great market timer. How do you know when you get back in another "crisis" won't develop and stocks plummet further? There is a major difference between savers and investors - not right or wrong just different mentality.
AngusYoung wrote:CNT - Let us all know when the correct time is to "jump back in". You must be a great market timer. How do you know when you get back in another "crisis" won't develop and stocks plummet further? There is a major difference between savers and investors - not right or wrong just different mentality.
AY
I didn't tell anyone to get out, I won't to get back in either, and we are talking about high risk investments being moved to safer money in a volatile market, not getting out of investing..if that's foolish, then foolish it is....
I have learned this... that money in the market goes away a lot faster then it comes back.
Did your heart flutter a bit when it dipped 465 today Angus?
packerboy wrote:I personally believe that individuals who think they can pick stocks are fooling themselves.
I also think it is foolish to try and time the market.
Take a look at this chart for example:
INTC
A great company but you better know when to buy and when to sell.
Well it depends on how you define "individuals" because Warren Buffet is pretty damn good at picking companies i.e. stocks. He is more the exception, than the rule so I find no fault in your argument. I remember a few years back they put monkey, a dart board and professional traders in a competition. I won't tell you who won, but I am guessing you can figure it out.
Last edited by Wild4hockey on Tue Jan 22, 2008 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
packerboy wrote:I personally believe that individuals who think they can pick stocks are fooling themselves.
I also think it is foolish to try and time the market.
Take a look at this chart for example:
INTC
A great company but you better know when to buy and when to sell.
Well it depends on how you define "individuals" because Warren Buffet is pretty damn good at picking companies i.e. stocks. He is more the exception, than the rule so I find no fault in your argument. I remember a few years back they put monkey, a dart board and professional traders in a comptetion. I won't tell you who won, but I am guessing you can figure it out.
That is exactly why the key is Time IN the market not timing the market
But he has the resources to buy a lot of stocks so it works out. Most individuals dont.
I agree with BIAFP but not as it relates to individual stocks. Intel was trading at $20 , 10 years ago. Its now at $18. In between it has hit 70.
If you own that stock, time in does you no good but timing can.
But he has the resources to buy a lot of stocks so it works out. Most individuals dont.
I agree with BIAFP but not as it relates to individual stocks. Intel was trading at $20 , 10 years ago. Its now at $18. In between it has hit 70.
If you own that stock, time in does you no good but timing can.
If you bought 100 shares of Intel in 1992 at $15 per share your cost was $1500. If you held it until today at $19 with the splits you would have 3200 shares or $60,800 and that is not including reinvesting the dividends. I guess buy and hold is a really bad idea
But he has the resources to buy a lot of stocks so it works out. Most individuals dont.
I agree with BIAFP but not as it relates to individual stocks. Intel was trading at $20 , 10 years ago. Its now at $18. In between it has hit 70.
If you own that stock, time in does you no good but timing can.
If you bought 100 shares of Intel in 1992 at $15 per share your cost was $1500. If you held it until today at $19 with the splits you would have 3200 shares or $60,800 and that is not including reinvesting the dividends. I guess buy and hold is a really bad idea
Aaaahh, what if you bought it at $70. Somebody did.
But he has the resources to buy a lot of stocks so it works out. Most individuals dont.
I agree with BIAFP but not as it relates to individual stocks. Intel was trading at $20 , 10 years ago. Its now at $18. In between it has hit 70.
If you own that stock, time in does you no good but timing can.
If you bought 100 shares of Intel in 1992 at $15 per share your cost was $1500. If you held it until today at $19 with the splits you would have 3200 shares or $60,800 and that is not including reinvesting the dividends. I guess buy and hold is a really bad idea
Aaaahh, what if you bought it at $70. Somebody did.
BIAFP wrote:
If you bought 100 shares of Intel in 1992 at $15 per share your cost was $1500. If you held it until today at $19 with the splits you would have 3200 shares or $60,800 and that is not including reinvesting the dividends. I guess buy and hold is a really bad idea
Aaaahh, what if you bought it at $70. Somebody did.
CNT may have also went through the 2007/2008 market dive, and he doesn't even know it,......yet. Wasn't the market much higher last fall? If this is a bottom, and the market goes up from here, in 6 to 9 months he will be buying back higher,....or keeping the "safer money".
I think only the broker gets rich when we try to move money around.
The banks are in trouble with the mortgage problem, and the economy doesn't appear to be growing at the same rate (but it is growing) that it has in the last few years, not going to deny it. However, in listening to the media, it seems vaguely familiar to the "economic crisis" prior to the 1992 election. If that is the case, maybe CNT has guessed right. Bottom line,......it is a guess.
Knowlzee wrote:CNT may have also went through the 2007/2008 market dive, and he doesn't even know it,......yet. Wasn't the market much higher last fall? If this is a bottom, and the market goes up from here, in 6 to 9 months he will be buying back higher,....or keeping the "safer money".
I think only the broker gets rich when we try to move money around.
The banks are in trouble with the mortgage problem, and the economy doesn't appear to be growing at the same rate (but it is growing) that it has in the last few years, not going to deny it. However, in listening to the media, it seems vaguely familiar to the "economic crisis" prior to the 1992 election. If that is the case, maybe CNT has guessed right. Bottom line,......it is a guess.
Yep, or what you call a gut feeling, after having been punched in it enough.
And yes it's down from last fall, but again today so far down another 270 pts.
First time in 25 years I felt the urge to pull back....I hope it pays off.
Oh sure I felt the urge in 87 but that was after I lost 40% of my value
. Screw the rebate idea - that just puts us further in the red. This to shall pass.
