ODDS AGAINST REACHING STATE TOURNAMENT for AA in 2008

[goldy313]

You could flip 10 tails in a row.

Yes, and the likelihood of you doing that is

1
----
2^10th

or

1 in 1,024

or 1,023:1.

True odds.

But that neglects statitiscal independance and therefore is proven false so it's not true odds. Because each flip is independant the previous 1 or 9 flips has no bearing on the next flip. Any gambler can tell you that the probability of of a roulette wheel hitting black or red 4 times in a row is only 5 times out of 100, yet it happens far beyond that probability. In fact after the 3rd red or black the odds that the fourth number will be the same color as the first 3 is 47%.

[Irishmans Shanty]

SECTION 8

3:7 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead
20:1 Buffalo
20:1 Brainerd
25:1 Northern Lakes
50:1 St. Cloud Tech
100:1 Monticello
100:1 Becker-Big Lake
150:1 River Lakes

% Chance of winning Section 8 this year based on History

Roseau 49.2% (31 appearances in 63 years)
Moorhead 15.8% (10 appearances in 63 years)
Tech 11% (7 appearances in 63 years)
Everyone else 0% (0 appearances in 63 years)

History tells me it is a three horse race. Ya I know, I know, last year doesn't mean anything, kids graduate, players transfer, Bantams move up, players improve, coaches come and go, sections re-align, Jupiter is in a different place. Save it, there is a reason for past successes in a given community and it runs deeper than the spaciousness of the lockerooms, the quickness of the ice, the number of players in the peewee program, the coach's forchecking system, or who did or did not leave early for the USHL. Successful communities have an expectation and a level of intrinsic motivation in their players that the have not communities can't comprehend.

[O-townClown]

But that neglects statitiscal independance and therefore is proven false so it's not true odds. Because each flip is independant the previous 1 or 9 flips has no bearing on the next flip. Any gambler can tell you that the probability of of a roulette wheel hitting black or red 4 times in a row is only 5 times out of 100, yet it happens far beyond that probability. In fact after the 3rd red or black the odds that the fourth number will be the same color as the first 3 is 47%.

I'm losing faith in the Minnesota schools. Goldy, this is crazy talk.

neglects statistical independence

Um, no. The reason you take 2 to the whatever power (for the number of coin tosses) is because each event is independent of the others.

therefore is proven false so it's not true odds

The only thing proven here is that you semi paid attention in Statistics class. Your post dances around being correct by using some of the right ideas and jargon, but it's clear you don't understand probability very well.

Because each flip is independent...has no bearing

Ding Ding Ding - we have a winner. The explanation presented assumes the 10 coin tosses are independent of each other.

Any gambler can tell you the probability

Actually, you'll find most gamblers are horrible at calculating odds. If they could they wouldn't play games that have such a pronounced house advantage.

the probability of of a roulette wheel hitting black or red 4 times in a row is only 5 times out of 100, yet it happens far beyond that probability

I can answer this two ways depending on how I read this. #1 - No it doesn't, unless you have a weighted wheel. #2 - If you say black OR red, you've doubled the likelihood so it does in fact happen more than 5 out of 100.

The probability of a spin being black is 18/38 or .4737.
The probability of a spin being red is 18/38 or .4737.
The probability of neither (green) is 2/38 or .0526.

The probability of spinning two reds in a row is .4737^2 = .2244
The probability of spinning three reds in a row is .1063
The probability of spinning four reds in a row is .0504

Where I think you pick up that "it happens far beyond that" is that you will pretty regularly see runs of four of one color in a row. Why? Simple. The likelihood of getting four of one color in a row once you've had a spin double. After that spin to determine if the run we're looking for is red or black (forget green for now), you only need the next three spins to match the first.

If you are looking for the probability that the next four spins will be four of the same color - red OR black - the calculation is as follows:

36/38 * 18/38 * 18/38 * 18/38 = .1007

So you can see how easy it is to feel "it happens far beyond that". Also, let's say you watched 1,000 spin over several hours in a casino. Are their 250 chances for a run of four? No. There actually are 997, or nearly four times as many. There are all sorts of starting points for the next run, not just distinct four spin blocks.

Go to a casino, watch 1,000 spins, and you will see pretty close to 100 runs of four black or red in a row. (To count accurately, you'll need to count a run of five as TWO runs of four, a run of six as THREE runs of four, etc...)

This thread is intended to look at the AA teams in Minnesota and assess their chances of reaching the state tournament. I'm sorry it didn't turn out that way.

[O-townClown]

% Chance of winning Section 8 this year based on History

Roseau 49.2% (31 appearances in 63 years)
Moorhead 15.8% (10 appearances in 63 years)
Tech 11% (7 appearances in 63 years)
Everyone else 0% (0 appearances in 63 years)

Irishman:

I see where you have figured their historical performance to determine who will represent Section 8, but there is one huge problem with your math.

The chance that one of the teams in Section 8 will make it to state this year is 100%. Your figures add up to just 76%.

You have to allocate the missing 24% somewhere.

[Undercover Hockey Lover]

SECTION 8

3:7 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead
20:1 Buffalo
20:1 Brainerd
25:1 Northern Lakes
50:1 St. Cloud Tech
100:1 Monticello
100:1 Becker-Big Lake
150:1 River Lakes

% Chance of winning Section 8 this year based on History

Roseau 49.2% (31 appearances in 63 years)
Moorhead 15.8% (10 appearances in 63 years)
Tech 11% (7 appearances in 63 years)
Everyone else 0% (0 appearances in 63 years)

History tells me it is a three horse race. Ya I know, I know, last year doesn't mean anything, kids graduate, players transfer, Bantams move up, players improve, coaches come and go, sections re-align, Jupiter is in a different place. Save it, there is a reason for past successes in a given community and it runs deeper than the spaciousness of the lockerooms, the quickness of the ice, the number of players in the peewee program, the coach's forchecking system, or who did or did not leave early for the USHL. Successful communities have an expectation and a level of intrinsic motivation in their players that the have not communities can't comprehend.

Shanty, I usual agree with what you post but your facts are skewed just a bit. Didn't Moorhead's hockey program start around 1970? It's difficult to hang that extra 25 years on their percentage when they didn't exist as a program. So they have made 10 appearances in 37 years ups their percentage to 27%. We can go farther in that since the split in 1992 the year Moorhead made their first appearance they are 10 out of 15 for a whopping 67% while Roseau moved up to in 1998 and has made 5 out of 9 appearances or 55% in AA (A fact that Ram fans like to dismiss is they played in A for 6 years with 0 appearances). And Tech has never appeared as a Section 8 or 8AA Champ and have only appeared 4 times the last being 1952. The only other team to appear in the AA from 8 is Alexandria who are no longer in 8AA but are playing in 6A now so this Section is really a 2 horse race between Roseau and Moorhead and its pretty close to a toss-up in precentage between the 2 since Roseau moved to AA. I would also like to point out the fact that Roseau was playing HS aged hockey for @35 years prior to the 1945 HS league tourney so they had a well established program while Moorhead spent 20 developing a program before their first appearance, which isn't too shabby. Irrelevant ..maybe...but there is more to the story than statistical analysis from 1945. And I didn't mention all the little blah-blahs you mentioned about roster changes and the what not.

[tomASS]

and this is why I buy a powerball ticket from time to time

[tomASS]

[spin-o-rama]

Never argue with a mathematician, the odds are against you.

[ImissMYhockey]

My percentage for section 4:
Hill: 45%
WBL: 25%
Roseville: 8%
Stillwater: 8%
MV:8%
Tartan:4%
Johnson:2%

[PuckTime]

"Mac, the horses name was Friday...."

[Irishmans Shanty]

[quote="Irishmans Shanty

% Chance of winning Section 8 this year based on History

Roseau 49.2% (31 appearances in 63 years)
Moorhead 15.8% (10 appearances in 63 years)
Tech 11% (7 appearances in 63 years)
Everyone else 0% (0 appearances in 63 years)

Shanty, I usual agree with what you post but your facts are skewed just a bit. Didn't Moorhead's hockey program start around 1970? It's difficult to hang that extra 25 years on their percentage when they didn't exist as a program. So they have made 10 appearances in 37 years ups their percentage to 27%. We can go farther in that since the split in 1992 the year Moorhead made their first appearance they are 10 out of 15 for a whopping 67% while Roseau moved up to in 1998 and has made 5 out of 9 appearances or 55% in AA (A fact that Ram fans like to dismiss is they played in A for 6 years with 0 appearances). And Tech has never appeared as a Section 8 or 8AA Champ and have only appeared 4 times the last being 1952. The only other team to appear in the AA from 8 is Alexandria who are no longer in 8AA but are playing in 6A now so this Section is really a 2 horse race between Roseau and Moorhead and its pretty close to a toss-up in precentage between the 2 since Roseau moved to AA. I would also like to point out the fact that Roseau was playing HS aged hockey for @35 years prior to the 1945 HS league tourney so they had a well established program while Moorhead spent 20 developing a program before their first appearance, which isn't too shabby. Irrelevant ..maybe...but there is more to the story than statistical analysis from 1945. And I didn't mention all the little blah-blahs you mentioned about roster changes and the what not.[/quote]

Skewed? Nonesense. It's my post so I'm holding the correcting pen, as impressive as Moorhead has been since Clinton/Gore, it doesn't change the fact the founding fathers decided to take a zero in those early years, therefore, their success rate remains at 15.8%.

Thanks for the history lesson on Section 8.

[EREmpireStrikesBack]

Where's mathrunner when you need him? (Or is he already here )

[Neutron 14]

Where's mathrunner when you need him? (Or is he already here )

He?

[Pucknutz69]

SECTION 1

5:2 Lakeville North
7:2 Rochester Century
11:2 Owatonna
6:1 Lakeville South
10:1 Rochester Mayo
20:1 Rochester John Marshall
50:1 Farmington
100:1 Dodge County corrected
1000:1 Winona corrected

SECTION 2

3:4 Edina
3:1 Holy Angels
10:1 Burnsville
20:1 Bloomington Jefferson
30:1 Chaska
100:1 Shakopee
100:1 Prior Lake
150:1 Bloomington Kennedy

SECTION 3

2:1 Rosemount
2:1 Cretin-Derham Hall
4:1 Woodbury
10:1 Eagan
12:1 Eastview
20:1 Apple Valley
100:1 Hastings
150:1 Park
200:1 Henry Sibley

SECTION 4

Even Hill-Murray
4:1 White Bear Lake
10:1 Roseville
10:1 Stillwater
25:1 North
35:1 Tartan
50:1 Mounds View
125:1 St. Paul Johnson
150:1 St. Paul Como Park

SECTION 5

2:3 Centennial
4:1 Blaine
10:1 Maple Grove
20:1 Rogers
40:1 Champlin Park
50:1 Coon Rapids
100:1 Osseo
100:1 Irondale
100:1 North Metro

SECTION 6

2:1 Benilde-St. Margaret's
3:1 Minnetonka
4:1 Eden Prairie
5:1 Wayzata
25:1 Robbinsdale Armstrong
30:1 Hopkins
100:1 Robbinsdale Cooper
1000:1 Minneapolis West
10000:1 Minneapolis East

SECTION 7

3:2 Anoka
4:1 Duluth East
4:1 Cloquet
10:1 Grand Rapids
15:1 Elk River
30:1 Forest Lake
100:1 Andover
500:1 Cambridge-Isanti
1000:1 St. Francis

SECTION 8

3:7 Roseau
4:1 Moorhead
20:1 Buffalo
20:1 Brainerd
25:1 Northern Lakes
50:1 St. Cloud Tech
100:1 Monticello
100:1 Becker-Big Lake
150:1 River Lakes

My picks are in bold print. I'll lay $10 on each team, I'll PM you as to where to send the check for my winnings.


Made a small change with EP/Wayzata