I've heard schools out in the Boston area are very good

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O-townClown
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Future of Minnesota HS hockey

Post by O-townClown »

wingman wrote:1. Bottom line with AAA playing like 50-60 games and getting all the top scouts and talent drafted to the NHL, USHL, Div 1, aaaannnnndd High school hockey in Minnesota is losing more and more kids to USHL, NAHL, & AAA early, it only says one thing. MN High schools have chosen not to be the future prospecting grounds for D1, NHL, etc (all above).

2. And the indiviual above that said look at the home towns on the rosters--they ain't dominated with kids from Minnesota any more, he is right on....not the same numbers as lets say back in the 70's.

3. MN high schools are limiting number of games, and are putting restrictions so that options are greater other places. Simple. Make the rules to enhance the program and it becomes better, put restrictions on it (regardless if you have feelings of wether they are good or not) you make other options look better.

4. I predict in 20 years-or so-, most of the best talent in Minnesota will leave before they are 16, and a league, with less restrictions, will compete with the MN state high school league for all the talent, thereby diluting the talent further. I mean look at community based associations right now.

5. 20 years ago no one played for the AAA Fire, etc. They played for their community. Now we lose kids to this team and others, STARTING AT PEEWEES.

6. There will soon be a Tier 1 U16 team that will possibly start competing for the TOP Bantams - with something like 10 teams here in the state of MN all made up of the stars of the state--diluting community teams even more. Soon playing for your community--or maybe even your high school--- won't be the aspiration. Sad but true and look around it is the future.............Please note I'm stating fact not wether I like it or not...just fact......

7. for example---MN Summer AAA teams have grown exponentionally from 1 AAA team in 1995(per age group) to well over 20-30 teams per age group in 2010. Hey that is only 15 years---the changes they are a comin....!
Wingman:

You and I see the same things and reach completely different conclusions.

1) Minnesota high schools are losing far fewer players to the USHL. Not too long ago there were 40-50 "high school eligible" Minnesotans playing there and we are down to 10-15. NAHL and AAA Midgets have not been a real threat lately.

2) It is not the same as in the 1970s, but not because Minnesota hockey is weaker. There is real hockey played in California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas, Ohio, and the DC area. Where hockey in the US was once "the Three Ms" (MN, MI, MA) and a little on the side, today it is nearly national, at least matching the footprint of the NHL. Saying Minnesota hockey is down because of a lower percentage playing college is like saying Canadian hockey is off because they make up less of the NHL.

3) The HS league has done a lot, and outside interests (MN Elite League) have filled a needed void. Teams play more games and periods are longer, plus top players get another 20 games in the fall. What you are saying isn't really a problem. Kids get enough games.

4) 20 years is a long way out. Schools nationally are dropping JV and middle school sports. Extracurricular programs are on the chopping block. It is most likely that your scenario comes to pass because of budget issues, not the inability of Minnesota HS hockey to get its act together.

5) And others? Which others? Some kids from the Twins have played on a Wisconsin based team and you act like the sky is falling. Are we going to have a bunch of Fire teams? It seems as though Minnesota Hockey has been working to prevent that.

6) Soon? Fact? I was not aware. Seems to me you are making this stuff up.

7) Summer teams? Oh please. In 15 years you cite a change, but THIRTY years ago I traveled to Winnipeg with a Spring all-star Wantasa team that today would be called AAA. There was a good amount of summer hockey. The main difference today is that people are working pretty hard to form all-star options as opposed to the stuff we usually did.

Basketball nationwide has been changed because of summer "AAU" (it usually is shoe-sponsored and not AAU, but that's what people call it) tournaments. Despite this, you still have Varsity basketball in-season throughout the country. The places where AAA hockey has grown most are not the normal areas for school hockey.
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wingman
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Post by wingman »

Listen I stated some facts--if it bothers you are you think that 'budget'issues are the reasons --fine I'm OK with that. Also, you said it above"....people are working pretty hard...." at setting up AAA stars teams here locally. Come on you have to be pretty closed minded to tell me the 'volume' of options is not greater. More options inturn will dilute the product....come on. For instance--if U16 Bantam all star teams are set up by lets say by district-throughout the state, won't that take take the emphasis--over time---away from the city or community assocaition based programs. Think about it. I do agree with more and larger programs throughout the US kids can come from more and more programs--but ask your self where is the Texas kid or Florida kid coming from---it's not a High School it is AAA. For instance, walk down the hall of fame at lets say the Universtiy of Michigan. As one goes from the 1960's to the present, the one thing which is absolutely obvious--they used to have a fair share of minnesotans on their rosters---not for the last several years. All of these kids are coming out of Michigans home grown AAA teams like little cesars etc. Those are facts, and those are trends that I see Minnesota embracing----over time---and again for what ever reason it may be---the high schools may not be able to be the better option.....Why and what do you think the trends will cause 20 years from now....its easy to say I'm wrong when predicting the future....but what are your predictions! What trends to you actually see. For instance (sorry to interject one more time) the Elite program does exactly what it is called and mimicks a trend....I'll set back now...love to hear your thoughts....
wingman
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Nov 06, 2006 12:37 pm

Post by wingman »

sorry all sorts of typos' in a hurry--but love to discuss these topics in a healthy format.
O-townClown
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Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Prediction

Post by O-townClown »

Trend long-term for hockey in Minnesota?

* the state will continue to produce more NCAA players and more NHL draft picks than any other area, and it will also be more than their 'fair share' if you go by participation numbers

* High School Varsity hockey will continue to be the primary option for the state's top hockey players (in the last few years we have seen Patrick White, Nick Leddy, Jake Gardiner, Aaron Ness, and Zach Budish go in the first two rounds without leaving their community for the NTDP or Junior hockey)

* the state's structure for youth hockey will be challenged over and over by those that feel community-based programs somehow fall short of meeting the needs of some players

* because of the abundance of off-season programs, Minnesota Hockey manages to preserve in-season community hockey as we know it today...which is as it was 30 years ago

It is funny to me that you talk on one hand about the number of summer so-called AAA teams and their dilutive effect on the quality, yet base your whole premise on the fact that the community/HS model will crumble because of supposed flaws. In Michigan, where 5 Tier I AAA programs attract top players from the state and far beyond, you have super-teams. In Massachusetts Tier I is much more attainable due to the large number of programs. Can't we say that Michigan has it wrong because so many kids are locked out of playing AAA hockey? Face it, if you aren't one of the top eighty skaters in a birth year - and most kids aren't - introduction of in-season Tier I AAA in Minnesota doesn't really help if it follows the Michigan model. Draw it up like Massachusetts and it is watered down enough to miss the point.

I am getting involved in our affiliate and my impressions still forming. Many look to USA Hockey and the affiliates for more governance because they see things they don't like. Many others look for less governance because they feel they are not allowed to do something they feel is good. I would caution you against assuming Minnesota Hockey and its structure are under siege because some parents took their kids to play for the Wisconsin Fire. Pee Wee, Bantam, and High School hockey in the Gopher State is going strong.
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O-townClown
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Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:22 pm
Location: Typical homeboy from the O-Town

Post by O-townClown »

wingman wrote:Listen I stated some facts--if it bothers you are you think that 'budget'issues are the reasons --fine I'm OK with that.
You are the one confused here, not me. You stated some facts, but mostly opinion.

Looking at your points above:

1 - Fact: Minnesota is losing fewer players to the NTDP, USHL, and other places than it was 6-9 years ago.

2 - This is true. Definitely factual. On the other hand, the penetration (which I'll define as Minnesotans divided by registered players nationwide) has not fallen. That's a fact too. Don't misuse statistics in an attempt to make your point; it weakens the argument.

3 - Minnesota high school hockey does have a game limit (like the NHL, KHL, OHL, USHL, and every other HL), but it has actually increased game count and lengthened game time. The fact is that the MSHSL has responded and the trend has been to to "enhance the program (so) it becomes better".

5 - Fact. Yes, this is a fact. No debate there. Where we differ: You have an alarmist reaction to kids playing for the Fire. What are the other teams you speak of?

6 - You have stated this as fact. I was unaware. Again, I ask you to provide information on the league, its participants, etc...
Be kind. Rewind.
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