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Pre-Season Section Rankings

 
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:11 am    Post subject: Pre-Season Section Rankings Reply with quote

Minnesotans never back down from a challenge to predict the out come of future hockey events. Given the new competitive sectional assigments, lets get people's humble opinions WRT how the section playoffs may sort out. The list below is a first attempt based on last year's 2013 section play-off results, with adjustments based on regular season results. Whe you make a revision, give a hint as to the premise, ie. senior's lost or kids entering the program, etc.

Section 1A
-----------
1 Redwing
2 New Prague
3 Northfield
4 Waseca
5 Winnona
6 Albert Lea
7 Austin
8 Fairbault

Section 2A
-----------
1 Mankato East
2 Willmar
3 LDC
4 Mankato West
5 Huctchinson
6 St. Peter

Section 3A
------------
1 New Ulm
2 Luverne
3 Fairmont
4 Marshall
5 Windom
6 Worthington

Section 4A
------------
1 Achiever Academy
2 SSP
3 SPU
4 Mahtomedi
5 Chisago
6 HenSib
7 Simley
8 MHHA
9 SPB

Section 5A
---------------
1 Blake
2 Breck
3 Mound
4 Orono
5 TG
6 Princeton
7 AHA
8 Msp Novas

Section 6A
-----------------
1 Alex
2 Fergus Falls
3 Pequot Lakes
4 Detroit Lakes
5 LPGE
6 Breckenridge
7 Morris

Section 7A
------------------
1 Hibbing
2 Procter/Hermantown
3 Moose Lake
4 IFALLS
5 Eveleth
6 Silver Bay

Section 8A
----------------
1 Warroad
2 TRF
3 EGF
4 Crookston
5 Park Rapids
6 LOWs

Section 1AA
----------------
1 LKVL-N
2 Dodge Cty
3 LKVL-S
4 RCH-JM
5 Owatona
6 Farmington
7 RCH-CEN
8 RCH-Mayo

Section 2AA
-------------
1 Edina
2 EP
3 BJEFF
4 Shakopee
5 Chaska
6 Holy Family
7 Prior Lake

Section 3AA
----------------
1 Eagan
2 Eastview
3 AV
4 BURNS
5 HAST
6 Eastridge
7 PARK
8 Rosemont
9 Woodbury

Section 4AA
--------------
1 Hill Murray
2 CDH
3 ROSE
4 STILLWATER
5 WBL
6 Tartan
7 NSP

Section 5AA
-------------
1 MNDSVW
2 IRONDALE
3 Blaine
4 CENTEN
5 ANOKA
6 Rogers
7 CHLPARK
8 SLPK
9 Coon Rapids

Section 6AA
-------------
1 MNTKA
2 BSM
3 HOPKINS
4 WAYZATA
5 MPLGROVE
6 ARMSTRONG
7 NORTH METRO
8 SLPK

Section 7AA
-------------
1 Andover
2 Forest Lake
3 Elk River
4 Cloquet
5 Duluth
6 Grand Rapids
7 Cambridge
8 StFrance

Section 8AA
-------------
1 NWRCTY
2 ROSEAU
3 MOORHD
4 BUFFALO
5 RVRLAKES
6 SSR
7 Bemidj
8 SCICE
9 Brainerd
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D6 Girls Fan



Joined: 03 Mar 2010
Posts: 136

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:06 am    Post subject: Re: Pre-Season Section Rankings Reply with quote

I'm not familiar enough with A...

OsMetroDad wrote:

Section 4A
------------
1 Achiever Academy


Wow. And given you probably know that team's roster, CP must've really done a job this summer.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 1AA
----------------
1 LKVL-N
2 Dodge Cty
3 LKVL-S
4 RCH-JM
5 Owatona
6 Farmington
7 RCH-CEN
8 RCH-Mayo


Agree, but Century might surprise. They aren't deep, but they have some high level talent.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 2AA
-------------
1 Edina
2 EP
3 BJEFF
4 Shakopee
5 Chaska
6 Holy Family
7 Prior Lake


I'll go with EP, because they tended to beat Edina when these kids were younger, and they've lost fewer kids. The Bloomington co-op will indeed be better, but I would watch out for Chaska who are young but there's some talent there.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 3AA
----------------
1 Eagan
2 Eastview
3 AV
4 BURNS
5 HAST
6 Eastridge
7 PARK
8 Rosemont
9 Woodbury


EastRidge up, B'ville & AV down.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 4AA
--------------
1 Hill Murray
2 CDH
3 ROSE
4 STILLWATER
5 WBL
6 Tartan
7 NSP


I think this is Hill then everyone else.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 5AA
-------------
1 MNDSVW
2 IRONDALE
3 Blaine
4 CENTEN
5 ANOKA
6 Rogers
7 CHLPARK
8 SLPK
9 Coon Rapids


If Anoka did in fact lose that forward, I think this is right.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 6AA
-------------
1 MNTKA
2 BSM
3 HOPKINS
4 WAYZATA
5 MPLGROVE
6 ARMSTRONG
7 NORTH METRO
8 SLPK


I'll go BSM, Hopkins, Tonka, and maybe move Armstrong up one.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 7AA
-------------
1 Andover
2 Forest Lake
3 Elk River
4 Cloquet
5 Duluth
6 Grand Rapids
7 Cambridge
8 StFrance


Agree. Really depends on if there's been any movement on those top 3 rosters.

OsMetroDad wrote:
Section 8AA
-------------
1 NWRCTY
2 ROSEAU
3 MOORHD
4 BUFFALO
5 RVRLAKES
6 SSR
7 Bemidj
8 SCICE
9 Brainerd


I like Buffalo a lot higher than 4th, maybe even winning this.
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Tigers33



Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Posts: 776

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow...these are awful.

AA winners:
Dodge county
Eden prairie
Eagan
Hill Murray
Blaine
BSM
Elk river
Buffalo
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ChatteringNinny



Joined: 24 Sep 2013
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:56 am    Post subject: Re: Pre-Season Section Rankings Reply with quote

[quote="D6 Girls Fan"]I'm not familiar enough with A...

OsMetroDad wrote:

Section 4A
------------
1 Achiever Academy


Wow. And given you probably know that team's roster, CP must've really done a job this summer.

quote]

This is the rumor I heard...No idea if it's true, though.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/16-old-jincy-dunne-earns-spot-u-women-151521286.html
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tigers33 wrote:
Wow...these are awful.

AA winners:
Dodge county
Eden prairie
Eagan
Hill Murray
Blaine
BSM
Elk river
Buffalo


I like your choice of Dodge Cty winning section 1AA. The SPB team played them twice last season and got smoked each time, so the talent level is definitely there from what I saw, and those kids skate together (spring/summer/fall) alot. It would not surprise me to see Dodge knock-off LKV-N this year. The section Elk River is in really difficult to predict, many comparable teams in that one. I have no idea about Buffalo except that two years ago they had an outstanding 14U team in MAHA. A couple others also say Buffalo is the one this year for that section. Would have to disagree with Blaine selection, I think MOUNDSVIEW is very deep on talent and getting better. OK with "Evil Prairie" this year, depends on if Edina let's a couple of very talented 9th graders play VAR this season. Going forward though, Id say Edina will have the edge on EP.
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:05 pm    Post subject: Re: Pre-Season Section Rankings Reply with quote

[quote="ChatteringNinny"]
D6 Girls Fan wrote:
I'm not familiar enough with A...

OsMetroDad wrote:

Section 4A
------------
1 Achiever Academy


Wow. And given you probably know that team's roster, CP must've really done a job this summer.

quote]

This is the rumor I heard...No idea if it's true, though.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/16-old-jincy-dunne-earns-spot-u-women-151521286.html


We'll know where they stand after AA play Hopkins early NOV.
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Knight7



Joined: 01 Jun 2007
Posts: 228

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can we do this after New Years Very Happy


Section 1A
-----------
1 Redwing
2 New Prague
3 Northfield
4 Waseca
5 Winnona
6 Albert Lea
7 Austin
8 Fairbault

Section 2A
-----------
1 Mankato East
2 Willmar
3 LDC
4 Mankato West
5 Huctchinson
6 St. Peter

Section 3A
------------
1 New Ulm
2 Luverne
3 Fairmont
4 Marshall
5 Windom
6 Worthington

Section 4A
------------
1 Achiever Academy
2 SSP
3 SPU
4 Mahtomedi
5 Chisago
6 HenSib
7 Simley
8 MHHA
9 SPB
I will leave sec. 4 alone as it will upset Palmquist and he always has his girls ready in Feb.

Section 5A
---------------
1 Blake
2 Breck
3 Mound
4 Orono
5 TG
6 Princeton
7 AHA
8 Msp Novas

Section 6A
-----------------
1 Alex
2 Fergus Falls
3 Pequot Lakes
4 Detroit Lakes
5 LPGE
6 Breckenridge
7 Morris

Section 7A
------------------
1 Hibbing
2 Procter/Hermantown
3 Moose Lake
4 IFALLS
5 Eveleth
6 Silver Bay

Section 8A
----------------
1 TRF
2 Warroad
3 EGF
4 Crookston
5 Park Rapids
6 LOWs

Section 1AA
----------------
1 LKVL-N
2 LKVL_S
3 Dodge County
4 RCH-JM
5 Owatona
6 Farmington
7 RCH-CEN
8 RCH-Mayo
Dodge Cty doesn't play tough enough teams to get higher.

Section 2AA
-------------
1 EP
2 Edina
3 BJEFF
4 Chaska
5 Shakopee
6 Holy Family
7 Prior Lake

Section 3AA
----------------
1 Eagan
2 Eastview
3 AV
4 BURNS
5 HAST
6 Eastridge
7 PARK
8 Rosemont
9 Woodbury

Section 4AA
--------------
1 Hill Murray
2 CDH
3 Stillwater
4 Roseville
5 WBL
6 Tartan
7 NSP

Section 5AA
-------------
1 Irondale
2 Moundsview
3 Blaine
4 Anoka
5 Centennial
6 CHLPARK
7 SLPK
8 Coon Rapid
9 Rogers
That player from Anoka is at Anoka not BSM. Rogers lost player to AA. Blaine has 4 D1 players and a slew of young players coming. Anoka has 2 D1 players.

Section 6AA
-------------
1 Hopkins
2 BSM
2 Minnetonka
2WAYZATA
5 Armstrong
6 Maple Grove
7 NORTH METRO
8 SLPK
Hopkins with 3 USA U18's have no reason not win it all. 2-4 is as always a guess.

Section 7AA
-------------
1 Andover
2 Forest Lake
3 Elk River
4 Cloquet
5 Duluth
6 Grand Rapids
7 Cambridge
8 StFrance

Section 8AA
-------------
1 NWRCTY
2 ROSEAU
3 MOORHD
4 BUFFALO
5 RVRLAKES
6 SSR
7 Bemidj
8 SCICE
9 Brainerd
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JohnnyBuck



Joined: 13 Feb 2009
Posts: 145

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since no one has commented on Class A yet I will go ahead and give it a shot.

Section 1A
-----------
Red Wing without question is the team to beat. They have some high end talent, however do not write off New Prague. They will compete this year and you never know......... an upset in the section finals?

Section 2A
-----------
Mankato East is probably the team to beat here. I do admit that I know very little about this section so if I am way off let me know.

Section 3A
------------
Weakess section in the state as history has shown. I don't think this will change in one year. New Ulm will still come out on top.

Section 4A
------------
Interesting section! SSP for years has been the team to beat. However the new Achiever Acadamy may out recruited them in their first year. Also, SPU has some top end talent, just not alot of depth.

Section 5A
---------------
Blake lost the states best player last year but return a very young and talented team. I think they will compete well this year with any team they face. Breck will take a step back, especially with their third coach in three years. Mound and Orono will also battle in class A. Could be a very interesting section.

Section 6A
-----------------
This section has improved over the past couple of years. I think Alec, Fergus and Pequot could all battle to get out of this section. If Pequot gets thier NAHA kid back they could be tough.

Section 7A
------------------
Hibbing was very balanced last year but lost 9 seniors. Tough to replace in class A. They do have some exceptional young talent coming up, however. Proctor/Hermantown battled a tough second last year and bring their top players back. They will be tough as they have more depth then past years and solid goaltending.

Section 8A
----------------
Probably the toughest class A section in the state. Warroad will be human this year. Most of their top recruits have graduated. TRF and EGF return most of theie teams from last year. TRF may have the most talent in the section. Their goaltending is excellent. I would not be surprised to see Warroad's dominance in the section come to an end.

State champion prediction - Red Wing over Blake
Laughing
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allhoc11



Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 400

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OsMetroDad wrote:
if Edina let's a couple of very talented 9th graders play VAR this season.


They had an 8th grader on Varsity last year (Bowlby), so not sure why they wouldn't have 9th graders this year, my guess is if they help the team they will be on it. However they lost a lot of talent in their senior class that isn't easy to replace, and as much talent as the younger kids have the bulk of it seemed to be a 12U last year, not 14U. I bet their time is a couple years away.
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D6 Girls Fan



Joined: 03 Mar 2010
Posts: 136

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 5:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

allhoc11 wrote:
OsMetroDad wrote:
if Edina let's a couple of very talented 9th graders play VAR this season.


They had an 8th grader on Varsity last year (Bowlby), so not sure why they wouldn't have 9th graders this year, my guess is if they help the team they will be on it. However they lost a lot of talent in their senior class that isn't easy to replace, and as much talent as the younger kids have the bulk of it seemed to be a 12U last year, not 14U. I bet their time is a couple years away.


Their junior class is deep, and between those girls and their seniors, it should be a very deep, fast team. I like their team a lot, but of course am just a bit more biased towards EP. When these players were 10's and 12's they were the best teams in the state. Hornets lost a few kids, EP too, but the cores left in both schools are good. I think the one underclassman that was going to make Edina's varsity has already done so.
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Knight7 wrote:
Can we do this after New Years Very Happy



Section 4A
------------
1 Achiever Academy
2 SSP
3 SPU
4 Mahtomedi
5 Chisago
6 HenSib
7 Simley
8 MHHA
9 SPB
I will leave sec. 4 alone as it will upset Palmquist and he always has his girls ready in Feb.



SPU got a couple of higher caliber kids into the program and one Elite player who came from the Duluth Marshall program after it imploded. I might be willing to move SPU ahead of SSP on second look at this. The challenge for SPU's new coach will be to rein in their Sr Forward to play a team game, if he can do that SPU is legit to knock off SSP.
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JohnnyBuck wrote:
Since no one has commented on Class A yet I will go ahead and give it a shot.

Section 6A
-----------------
This section has improved over the past couple of years. I think Alec, Fergus and Pequot could all battle to get out of this section. If Pequot gets thier NAHA kid back they could be tough.


Went to NorEDU this year
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Knight7 wrote:


Section 8A
----------------
1 TRF
2 Warroad
3 EGF
4 Crookston
5 Park Rapids
6 LOWs

Section 4AA
--------------
1 Hill Murray
2 CDH
3 Stillwater
4 Roseville
5 WBL
6 Tartan
7 NSP

Section 5AA
-------------
1 Irondale
2 Moundsview
3 Blaine
4 Anoka
5 Centennial
6 CHLPARK
7 SLPK
8 Coon Rapid
9 Rogers
That player from Anoka is at Anoka not BSM. Rogers lost player to AA. Blaine has 4 D1 players and a slew of young players coming. Anoka has 2 D1 players.

Section 6AA
-------------
1 Hopkins
2 BSM
2 Minnetonka
2WAYZATA
5 Armstrong
6 Maple Grove
7 NORTH METRO
8 SLPK

Hopkins with 3 USA U18's have no reason not win it all. 2-4 is as always a guess.



I like the TRF move up, they have a proven program that have 2 Soph's (Jorde & Torkelsson) are just outstanding elite team players. Goalie Franny Marshall is extremely good too! Who did Warroad lose as Sr last year?

Stillwater vs. Roseville ? both are getting a couple of new underclassmen that will contribute major minuets on VAR. Roseville is getting Madison Gaffney & Kendra Williams. Stillwater is getting Taylor Gulenchyn from Madison Capitals.

Rogers at the bottom? who is their VAR goalie this year?

Hopkins, YES! I was just afriad to put them ahead of BSM & Tonka because I don't know what players the big 2 lost. AA kids played Hopkins in a summer HS tournament game at LKVL in July, lost 5-3 due to the Nina Rogers factor. She is a game changer at any time.
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Knight7



Joined: 01 Jun 2007
Posts: 228

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OsMetro Dad-

Rogers going from A to AA, new coach and loss of a strong player to AA, all contibuted to putting Rogers on the bottom. SLP graduated no one last year and worked hard. CR has a couple of good players, we'll see.

Stillwater still has a deeper feeder program over Roseville and CDH gets a couple of kids that had to play JV because of transfer rules.

Tonka and BSM are still lethal. But I said if you have 3 USA U18 players on your squad you need to win. Wayzata always plays tough. Tonka lost 5 very good D1 players. BSM lost 4 Defenseman. Hopkins has a USA player in net, D and forward and another strong forward on top of that. The rest of the team works hard and smart.
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Knight7 wrote:
OsMetro Dad-

Stillwater still has a deeper feeder program over Roseville and CDH gets a couple of kids that had to play JV because of transfer rules.

Tonka and BSM are still lethal. But I said if you have 3 USA U18 players on your squad you need to win. Wayzata always plays tough. Tonka lost 5 very good D1 players. BSM lost 4 Defenseman. Hopkins has a USA player in net, D and forward and another strong forward on top of that. The rest of the team works hard and smart.


All good info, I live about 1 mile south of CDH and know that situation pretty well, Paige Voight and another girl are the two you are refering to, and yes they are both very good which will leap frog CDH over both Stillwater & Roseville, but maybe not HM. 3 Hopkins VAR girls play on our Os team, and Matt Haberman (dad) is one of our coaches, so I'm a bit partial to Hopkins myself for obvious reasons Smile It will be fun for us when Hopkins plays AA in Nov for pride's sake!
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Rocketwrister



Joined: 18 Feb 2003
Posts: 555

PostPosted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Section7A....Hibbing always tough, lost a lot though. 9th grader on squad who is pretty good!

PH will be good competition for Hibbing. Honestly they should be able to take this section...since staying down is "A"..interesting to see how Fawcett does.

I'd have to say Moose Lake should be tough, but not sure they can over take Hibbing.
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OsMetroDad



Joined: 17 Sep 2013
Posts: 69

PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 2:02 am    Post subject: LSQRANK 22-DEC-2013 Reply with quote

LSQRANK 22-DEC-2013 Minnesota High School Girls League Class A & AA

LSQRANK is a numerical ranking system that performs a least squares best fit
of IN-season data of performance based measurable attributes between sports teams. This program adapts adjustment computation methods developed for spatial data analysis to the science of sports performance ranking. Algorithms are employed to compute composite margin of victory scores (MOV) and observation weights that are used to build the reduced Normal Equation Matrices. The solution of the equations is an iterative solution using the Cholesky solution algorithm. The solution to the system of observation
equations produces:

(1) LSQRANK, a relative ranking order of the given teams in the league;
(2) GD, a modelled goal differential based on rank & score;
(3) avgSS, an average strength of schedule of each team;
(4) Wi, a report of the standardized residuals of the observations.

A link to the 22-DEC-2013 rankings is:

http://www.aerogeomatics.com/aerosys/software/LSQRANK/LSQRANK_MN_HS_GIRLS_22_DEC_2013.PDF
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