AA Rankings for 1/19/14

[karl(east)]

One month to go until sections.

1. Hill-Murray (14-2)
-It took an adventure into overtime, but the Pioneers escaped with the all-important win over White Bear and retain the top spot by the narrowest of margins. They’ve lost to the two teams below them, but at this point, the overall body of work matters far more than head-to-head results, and theirs gives them just enough of a cushion over Lakeville North. For whatever it’s worth, the week ahead is about as tough as it gets in the Classic Suburban, as they visit rival St. Thomas and play a Mahtomedi team that gave them some trouble the first time around.
This week: Thurs at #10 St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Mahtomedi

2. Lakeville North (14-3-1)
-A thrilling comeback against Burnsville caps the Panthers’ continued dramatic rise. They’re a team without any obvious weaknesses, and while they may not have the household names of some of the other top 5 teams, they make up for it with chemistry and relentless pressure. With no one in the top ten left on their schedule they have a legitimate shot at running the table straight into a high seed at State, though the South Suburban is no cakewalk, and they still have Duluth East, too. This week they face a team that beat them back in November in Eastview; just how much have they improved since then?
This week: Tues vs. #15 Eastview, Sat vs. Apple Valley

3. Edina (12-4-1)
-The Hornets could only tie a Wayzata team they beat back in November, leaving them with only one win in their past four, though the losses and tie are all against top five teams. After a relentless string of difficult games, the next two weeks are actually pretty easy by their standards, though Minnetonka can’t be totally ignored, even in a down year.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. Minnetonka

4. Burnsville (11-5)
-The Blaze had a game slip away from them against Lakeville North. They stay ahead of Wayzata due to their win over the Trojans and a 1-1 record against Edina versus Wayzata’s 0-1-1 mark; those two teams are otherwise very similar in terms of their accomplishments to date. Their game with Eden Prairie this week is the toughest one left on their schedule.
This week: Tues at Rosemount, Sat at #12 Eden Prairie

5. Wayzata (12-4-1)
-The Trojans dropped a spot to make room for North’s rise, but even so, a tie against Edina after losing to the Hornets back in November is a step in the right direction. They also picked up a win over Eden Prairie; while narrow, it keeps them perfect against 6AA foes. The Trojans haven’t allowed more than three goals in a game all year. Their opponents this week, while inconsistent, have shown some flashes of quality against good teams.
This week: Thurs vs. Minnetonka, Sat vs. Prior Lake

6, Elk River (12-3)
-The Elks stayed perfect in the Northwest Suburban by edging past Centennial, and picked up respectable 4-1 wins over Champlin Park and Stillwater. They’re unbeaten outside of one bad weekend in Edina, though they have also played a somewhat lighter schedule than most of the other teams in this top tier. The week ahead is a fairly easy one, too.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

7. Blaine (11-3-1)
-A convincing win over Duluth East has the Bengals pushing their way back up the rankings. They have the firepower to compete with anyone in the state, but the consistency hasn’t quite been there yet. They have three games this week, though only the Minnetonka game looks to pose any sort of a challenge.
This week: Tues at Minnetonka, Thurs at Armstrong, Sat vs. Osseo

8. Holy Family (10-3-1)
-The Fire continue to edge upward despite playing a weak schedule lately, but with teams in front of them dropping and no one behind them making a move, it only makes sense. After two more likely lay-ups, they get a possible challenge against another team that is relatively untested against quality AA teams, Roseau.
This week: Tues at Delano, Wed vs. Hutchinson, Fri vs. Roseau

9. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (12-4-2)
-It was easy pickings for the Red Knights against Blake and St. Francis last week, though their game against the latter was surprisingly close. This week is an entirely different story, as they take on Eden Prairie for the second time in a key 6AA game and then head down to Faribault for a game against Shattuck.
This week: Tues at #12 Eden Prairie, Sat at Shattuck-St. Mary’s

10. St. Thomas Academy (10-4-1)
-Rolled past Simley for a third straight easy Classic Suburban win. The week ahead, on the other hand, is one of the Cadets’ biggest, as they face a pair of teams who have already beaten them. A win or two—particularly over Hill-Murray—would give them the positive result they need to go higher in the rankings. They have the talent to do it.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Hill-Murray, Sat at Breck

11. Duluth East (12-4-1)
-Not a good week for the Hounds, as they were blown out by Blaine, needed overtime to get past Apple Valley, and tied a good Maple Grove team. The culprit, unsurprisingly, was a lack of offense, which often means that opponents are never really out of the game. Only one game this week, but it has some section relevance.
This week: Tues at Forest Lake

12. Eden Prairie (10-5-1)
-The Eagles had a strong week, giving Wayzata a one-goal game and powering past Minnetonka to shore up their standing in 6AA. The week ahead is a very tough one, and should show if the Eagles have improved at all since their run of mediocrity around Christmas. They may have the toughest schedule of any team over the last month of the year.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs at #4 Burnsville, Sat vs. Hopkins

13. Grand Rapids (13-4)
-The Thunderhawks had a very narrow escape against Cloquet, and also handled Hibbing; with a number of the other teams in this area losing games last week, that’s enough to boost them a couple of spots in the rankings. This week’s game with White Bear matches two of the state’s best forwards, and is one of the best tests remaining on their schedule.
This week: Fri vs. International Falls, Sat vs. White Bear Lake

14. Maple Grove (9-6-2)
-A tie with Duluth East lifts the Crimson a couple of spots, and continues their trend of tight games against quality teams. They can lock up a top-2 seed in 5AA with a second win over Centennial on Thursday.
This week: Thurs at Centennial, Sat at Anoka

15. Eastview (13-3)
-A loss to Prior Lake is a bit of a setback, but with no one else seizing any initiative in this part of the rankings, the Lightning stay in the top 15. They have a tough week ahead, with South Suburban frontrunners Lakeville North and Burnsville on the docket.
This week: Tues at #2 Lakeville North, Fri vs. Woodbury, Sat vs. #4 Burnsville

The Bubble

Cretin-Derham Hall (12-3-1)
-Like section opponent Eastview, the Raiders suffered a mild upset this week, but it isn’t enough to make too big of a dent in an otherwise strong start to their year. They continue with Suburban East play this week, facing Stillwater and Park.

Prior Lake (8-7-1)
-After Cretin, things get really messy. The Lakers had a very confusing week, as they beat ranked Eastview but lost to Apple Valley. They’ll seek some consistency this week in a game against Bloomington Jefferson that could give them the 3-seed in 2AA; Wayzata also looms.

Centennial (9-7)
-Put up a good fight in a losing effort to Elk River. A section battle with Maple Grove is up this week.

Moorhead (8-8)
-While most teams around here have been inconsistent, the Spuds have been pretty steady of late, edging Bemidji and falling to Warroad this past week. In their past eight games, both teams have scored between two and four goals. They haven’t done anything that would push them any higher, but they have been reliable. They have a big week ahead of them, with a key 8AA battle with Roseau and a tough one against East Grand Forks.

Eagan (10-7-1)
-A narrow loss to Jefferson keeps a team that has otherwise been playing fairly well from climbing as others drop. They’ve had some very competitive games against high-end teams, but they have to take care of business against teams like the Jaguars to really go much higher.

Minnetonka (7-9)
-The Skippers have been the epitome of inconsistency: they have wins over Lakeville North and Benilde, but have lost to Stillwater and now Hopkins. They can play with anyone when they’re on, but like so many of the teams in this part of the rankings, there is no steadiness to be found. An absolutely brutal week awaits them, as they play Blaine, Wayzata, and Edina.

Andover (9-7)
-The Huskies are into an easier part of their schedule, and continue to edge upward. They have three games this week, but should be favored in all of them.

Bloomington Jefferson (8-7-2)
-A win over Eagan helps the Jaguars’ cause some, but they also tied Rosemount this past week, so that keeps them from going any higher. Prior Lake is up this week.

White Bear Lake (10-5-1)
-The good news for the Bears is that they took Hill to overtime, and proved they can be a serious threat in sections. The bad news is that they dropped another winnable game, and from a strict standpoint of quality wins and losses, are becoming increasingly hard to justify being ranked. They have a big road trip to the north this week to play Hermantown and Grand Rapids.

Forest Lake (10-4-3)
-The Rangers knocked off Cretin this past week. They’ve had a few clunkers, but they’ve also been competitive with a number of ranked teams, and will get a crack at another one this week when they face Duluth East.

Roseau just misses the top 25.

Here are the sections, again listed in order of likely seeding:

1AA
2 Lakeville North
-This still looks like a one-team race, though Farmington has built up a nice 13-3-1 record and should get the 2-seed. Their few games against Metro AA schools don’t suggest they have a much of a shot at North, but they remain a bit of an unknown. Further down, the game between Rochester Mayo and Lakeville South next week will probably decide the 3-seed, barring some surprises in Big Nine play.
Key upcoming games: 1/28 Rochester Mayo at Lakeville South, 2/1 Lakeville North at Lakeville South

2AA
3 Edina
4 Burnsville
(17) Prior Lake
(23) Bloomington Jefferson
-The top two continue to jockey back and forth for the top spot, with no clean resolution in sight. Prior Lake’s comfortable win over Jefferson has them in good position for the 3-seed; those two play again this week.
Key upcoming game: 1/21 Prior Lake at Bloomington Jefferson

3AA
11 St. Thomas Academy
15 Eastview
(16) Cretin-Derham Hall
(20) Eagan
-Hints of inconsistency from the other teams make St. Thomas a comfortable frontrunner for the top seed here, and a win over Cretin next week will lock up the top seed for the Cadets. Eastview and Cretin don’t play, so they may be jockeying the rest of the way for the 2-seed; even if they lose to St. Thomas, Cretin’s performance in that game might be key. An improving Rosemount team is worth keeping an eye on here, too. This is one of the deeper sections out there.
Key upcoming games: 1/25 Eagan at Rosemount, 1/28 St. Thomas Academy at Cretin-Derham Hall

4AA
1 Hill-Murray
(24) White Bear Lake
-Hill locks up the top seed with the win over White Bear. Below them, Stillwater has now beaten Roseville in two out of three meetings, and is the likely 3-seed; after White Bear’s loss to Mounds View, they have some shot at #2 if they can beat White Bear next week. Still, I’d be surprised to see anyone shake up the top two.
Key upcoming game: 1/30 Stillwater at White Bear Lake

5AA
7 Blaine
14 Maple Grove
(18) Centennial
-This section continues to hold steady, and round two of NWSC play gets going this week. If Blaine and Maple Grove take care of business against Centennial, that would just about lock in this order, barring several surprise upsets. Rogers, which has a nice record and is 3-0-1 against Champlin Park and Anoka, should take the 4-seed; they could even make a case for #3 if Centennial stumbles down the stretch.
Key upcoming games: 1/23 Maple Grove at Centennial, 2/1 Blaine at Centennial

6AA
5 Wayzata
8 Holy Family
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
12 Eden Prairie
(21) Minnetonka
-This order makes good sense for now. Wayzata does have five section games left, though four are against Minnetonka and Hopkins; it would take at least two losses there to reconsider the top seed. Benilde and Eden Prairie still play twice more, which may decide the 3-seed, and there is the usual slate of Lake Conference games left, too. Holy Family has the section wins to grab the 2-seed, but will the coaches hold their schedule against them?
Key upcoming games: 1/21 Benilde at Eden Prairie, 1/23 Minnetonka at Wayzata, 2/1 Eden Prairie at Wayzata

7AA
6 Elk River
11 Duluth East
13 Grand Rapids
(25) Forest Lake
(22) Andover
-This section has taken shape pretty quickly in recent weeks now that the top three are done with each other; it’ll take a couple of big upsets to shake this order. Forest Lake is on track for the 4-seed on the strength of their win over Andover, but if the Huskies continue to play well down the stretch and/or the Rangers stumble, they could flip. Cloquet should make for a pesky 6-seed, too.
Key upcoming games: 1/21 Duluth East at Forest Lake, 2/1 Elk River at Andover

8AA
Roseau
(18) Moorhead
Brainerd
Bemidji
-Roseau can lock up the top seed with a win over Moorhead on Tuesday; a loss, on the other hand, would leave these two deadlocked, and every game the rest of the way would matter. Given their strength of schedule, that would probably favor Moorhead somewhat. Barring surprises down the stretch, Brainerd should be #3 and Bemidji should be #4.
Key upcoming games: 1/21 Moorhead at Roseau, 1/30 Brainerd at Moorhead, 1/30 Bemidji at Roseau

This season may lack dominant teams, but it sure has a lot of parity. Six sections are represented in the top seven, and another isn’t far behind; six sections also have two teams in the top 15, so the State Tourney should still be highly competitive even if there are some upsets in sections. Even 8AA—the only section without a contender for a seed at State—has a couple of teams that have been reasonably competitive against the best.

[tjkhavgam]

BEST read of the week. Thanks Karl.

[Sats81]

Nothing better!

[Task Force 34]

Karl -

With only 7 teams left in section 2 AA, do you know how they will set up the bracket? Will 1 seed have a bye in quarterfinals and the remaining games will be:

1___Bye___________

3 ____ ______________
-_________
6_____


4_____
_________
5_____ ______________
_________
2_____

7_____

[Task Force 34]

Never try to make a bracket in an HTML editor!!

[HShockeywatcher]

With only 7 teams left in section 2 AA, do you know how they will set up the bracket? Will 1 seed have a bye in quarterfinals and the remaining games will be:

Top seed gets a bye and plays the winner of the 4/5 game in the semis.

[danglingnsnipen15]

Karl,

Great work on the rankings. Just out of curiosity, what do you think it would take for Lakeville North to occupy the top spot in your rankings? I only ask because they are the team that I have seen play the most this season and I have been impressed thus far.

[elliott70]

Karl -

With only 7 teams left in section 2 AA, do you know how they will set up the bracket? Will 1 seed have a bye in quarterfinals and the remaining games will be:

1___Bye___________

3 ____ ______________
-_________
6_____


4_____
_________
5_____ ______________
_________
2_____

7_____

The brackets are posted on tithe MN high school league web site.
Some are more generic, but all are there.

[karl(east)]

With only 7 teams left in section 2 AA, do you know how they will set up the bracket? Will 1 seed have a bye in quarterfinals and the remaining games will be:

Top seed gets a bye and plays the winner of the 4/5 game in the semis.

Correct. Here's a generic version of what a 7-team bracket looks like:

http://www.printyourbrackets.com/pdfbra ... Seeded.pdf

Basically, the top seed gets a free pass to the semis.

Karl,

Great work on the rankings. Just out of curiosity, what do you think it would take for Lakeville North to occupy the top spot in your rankings? I only ask because they are the team that I have seen play the most this season and I have been impressed thus far.

The short answer is that Hill needs to lose again. At the end of the day they only have 2 losses against a schedule that has been (in terms of big games, at least, which is all I really care about) a bit harder than North's.
North has 3 losses and a tie, and all to poorer teams than the ones Hill has lost to.

I suppose that if Hill really struggles with some of these poor Classic Suburban teams they play while North steamrolls through the SSC, I might make the switch. But if Hill goes 23-2 with their schedule, I think that's enough to cancel out the head-to-head loss.

I got my first look at them last night. The video feed wasn't the best, but I was impressed. I'll get another look at them when they're in Duluth in a few weeks, too.

[danglingnsnipen15]

The short answer is that Hill needs to lose again. At the end of the day they only have 2 losses against a schedule that has been (in terms of big games, at least, which is all I really care about) a bit harder than North's.
North has 3 losses and a tie, and all to poorer teams than the ones Hill has lost to.

I suppose that if Hill really struggles with some of these poor Classic Suburban teams they play while North steamrolls through the SSC, I might make the switch. But if Hill goes 23-2 with their schedule, I think that's enough to cancel out the head-to-head loss.

I got my first look at them last night. The video feed wasn't the best, but I was impressed. I'll get another look at them when they're in Duluth in a few weeks, too.[/quote]

Thanks for your input. North's next game against Eastview should be interesting considering the first meeting between these 2 teams resulted in a couple players from North being ejected.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Karl great rankings as always, you probably did not rank LN high enough for goldy! . You do your homework every week and as always great Sunday AM reading material.

[Slammer]

Why isn't Grand Rapids number one seed in section 7AA?!! They beat Elk river! And they are 5-1 in section play!

[greenway1969]

Since East, Elk River and Rapids beat each other, you have to look at the rest of their wins. Rapids best AA win is Roseau. That does not compare to Elk River's wins against Blaine, Edina and Maple Grove. East has beaten Eden Prairie, Wayzata, and class A power Breck. Rapids lost to Duluth Marshall. Rapids lack of quality wins against AA opponents properly places them at the #3 seed. Don't see any chance of Rapids moving up. They also have to watch out for Forest Lake. Forest Lake could get the #3 seed if they beat East and Rapids looses two of the following games: Hermantown, White Bear and Moorhead. It would be ironic because Rapids was seeded ahead of Forest Lake last year after Forest Lake had beaten them during the season.

[alcloseshaver]

Greenway, Great job explaining the big picture. If teams have comparable schedules and results head to head is important. Last year Rapids had a strong finish and their overall record put them in the right seed. The victory over ER might not hold up as ER is putting together a nice resume.

[HShockeywatcher]

Thanks for your input. North's next game against Eastview should be interesting considering the first meeting between these 2 teams resulted in a couple players from North being ejected.

Is this a pattern for them? My sample size is very small, but in the game I saw them play I was not impressed at all, they were chippy all game and a player got ejected.
Now, the game I saw was their last loss so my guess is they have gotten better since, but I'd be curious if this behavior is commonplace on the team.

[danglingnsnipen15]

Thanks for your input. North's next game against Eastview should be interesting considering the first meeting between these 2 teams resulted in a couple players from North being ejected.

Is this a pattern for them? My sample size is very small, but in the game I saw them play I was not impressed at all, they were chippy all game and a player got ejected.
Now, the game I saw was their last loss so my guess is they have gotten better since, but I'd be curious if this behavior is commonplace on the team.

They seem to be a team which thrives on a physical style of play, which lead to a great deal of post-whistle confrontations early on in the season. It hasn't been an issue as of late though.

[sanryam]

Since East, Elk River and Rapids beat each other, you have to look at the rest of their wins. Rapids best AA win is Roseau. That does not compare to Elk River's wins against Blaine, Edina and Maple Grove. East has beaten Eden Prairie, Wayzata, and class A power Breck. Rapids lost to Duluth Marshall. Rapids lack of quality wins against AA opponents properly places them at the #3 seed. Don't see any chance of Rapids moving up. They also have to watch out for Forest Lake. Forest Lake could get the #3 seed if they beat East and Rapids looses two of the following games: Hermantown, White Bear and Moorhead. It would be ironic because Rapids was seeded ahead of Forest Lake last year after Forest Lake had beaten them during the season.

Green, Shaver - I'm pretty sure Slammer is joking and mocking HockeyDJ

[alcloseshaver]

Could be, sometimes hard to remember which posters are sarcastic. I do encourage the digs and sarcasm though, makes it more entertaining.

[HShockeywatcher]

Thanks for your input. North's next game against Eastview should be interesting considering the first meeting between these 2 teams resulted in a couple players from North being ejected.

Is this a pattern for them? My sample size is very small, but in the game I saw them play I was not impressed at all, they were chippy all game and a player got ejected.
Now, the game I saw was their last loss so my guess is they have gotten better since, but I'd be curious if this behavior is commonplace on the team.

They seem to be a team which thrives on a physical style of play, which lead to a great deal of post-whistle confrontations early on in the season. It hasn't been an issue as of late though.

There's a difference between being physical and getting the crowd to cheer for you when a player you hit after the whistle is on the ice not moving.
Hopefully you're right and it's changed.

[greenway1969]

After seeing where that poster is from Duluth you're probably right that it was a little bit of sarcasm.

[eagle4life9]

I think it is really exciting to see 7 of the 8 sections having team(s) in the top 11. It should make for some exciting section games but also could provide one of the most even state tournaments in a while.

[Traxler]

I think it is really exciting to see 7 of the 8 sections having team(s) in the top 11. It should make for some exciting section games but also could provide one of the most even state tournaments in a while.

If my memory serves me well, in 2012 all 8 teams of the tournament were top 11 according to Let's Play Hockey Rankings. Lakeville South was ranked 11 and beat #1 ranked Duluth East in the first round. I think BSM beat HM in the championship game that year. Every section had 1 team in the top 11 except for section 6 which had 4 teams (Eden Prairie, Wayzata, Benilde, and Minnetonka). The other 7 teams to round out the top 11 in no particular order were Duluth East, Edina, Eagan, Lakeville South, Hill-Murray, Maple Grove, and Moorhead.

[bubblehockey27]

Karl -

With only 7 teams left in section 2 AA, do you know how they will set up the bracket? Will 1 seed have a bye in quarterfinals and the remaining games will be:

1___Bye___________

3 ____ ______________
-_________
6_____


4_____
_________
5_____ ______________
_________
2_____

7_____

I would assume 1 seed gets the bye to the semi-final, and will play the winner of the 4v5 game. That way Semi finals will potentially be 1v4 and 2v3 pending upsets.

[karl(east)]

I think it is really exciting to see 7 of the 8 sections having team(s) in the top 11. It should make for some exciting section games but also could provide one of the most even state tournaments in a while.

If my memory serves me well, in 2012 all 8 teams of the tournament were top 11 according to Let's Play Hockey Rankings. Lakeville South was ranked 11 and beat #1 ranked Duluth East in the first round. I think BSM beat HM in the championship game that year. Every section had 1 team in the top 11 except for section 6 which had 4 teams (Eden Prairie, Wayzata, Benilde, and Minnetonka). The other 7 teams to round out the top 11 in no particular order were Duluth East, Edina, Eagan, Lakeville South, Hill-Murray, Maple Grove, and Moorhead.

I also had all 8 in the top 11, though I had South ahead of Moorhead going in. That year was easily the deepest tourney field in recent memory, though. Looking back at old PS2 rankings, you have to go back to the late 90s to find something even remotely close.

I don't think we'll match that this year since 8AA doesn't have a top 15 team, and there will probably be an upset or two along the way. But if the Tourney were to start today with all the top seeds making it, we'd have teams like Blaine and St. Thomas going in unseeded--and I think they have an even better chance of winning it all than, say, Moorhead or Hill did in 2012. That would make for an awful lot of good games. I think history has shown that the vast majority of AA games between teams in the top 15 have been competitive, and sometimes even lower-ranked teams can give the favorites a good run.

[goldy313]

1AA
2 Lakeville North
-This still looks like a one-team race, though Farmington has built up a nice 13-3-1 record and should get the 2-seed. Their few games against Metro AA schools don’t suggest they have a much of a shot at North, but they remain a bit of an unknown. Further down, the game between Rochester Mayo and Lakeville South next week will probably decide the 3-seed, barring some surprises in Big Nine play.
Key upcoming games: 1/28 Rochester Mayo at Lakeville South, 2/1 Lakeville North at Lakeville South

Farmington goes to Owatonna Tuesday, Owatonna had a number of kids playing on their state championship football team that finshed their season after 13 games on November 30th and after a rough start the Huskies have been better as of late. Owatonna beat Mayo last week and a win against the Tigers would probably move Owatonna up to #2 or #3. a Farmington win probably locks them in at #2.