Section 1 A
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
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anyone at the Albert Lea V Lourdes games saw 2 very good teams play - Lourdes goalie played well, but they're whole team held back Albert Lea's constant pressure.
What determined that game was a poor officiating call - a goal taken away from Albert Lea in 1st period.
should be a good section playoff to watch -
What determined that game was a poor officiating call - a goal taken away from Albert Lea in 1st period.
should be a good section playoff to watch -
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Given most of the key games, as far as seeding is concerned, have been played, here is what I have for the seeding predictions....
1 - New Prague - Should end the season by wining their last 2 leaving them 18-4-3 (8-0 in the section). Not much debate here for the #1 seed.
2 - Mankato West - With 2 games left, I don't believe they can lose the #2 seed. With that said, I think they will win the last two and finish with a 23-2 record (13-1 in section play).
3 - Rocherter Lourdes - Three non section games remain. I think they will go 1-2 in those games brining them to 7-17-1 (3-3 in section play). Reason for the 3 seed is the all 3 section losses were to the top dogs West and NP twice and the all important win over Albert Lea.
4 - Albert Lea - 3 games left and as I stated above, they will likely drop the game against West. The other 2 (Mankato East and Winona) should be wins for a 14-10-1 overall record (6-4 section record).
5 - La Crescent - 2 games left and I see them going 1-1 in those contests bringing them to 15-6-4 (5-0-1 in the section) Ugly tie vs Winona but their success vs the rest of the section makes up for it.
6 - LeSueur/St. Peter - 14-8-2 (5-3 in section play) Solid win over Faribault but the loss to La Crescent leaves them at the 6 slot. The loss to Austin is not good and could possibly drop them to 7.
7 - Faribault - Three games remaining (Dodge Co, Austin and Owatonna) and should win 2 bringing them to 11-11-2 (8-4-1). I do not see any bad losses but the head to head loss to LSP prevents them from moving up to 5.
8 - Northfield - it will be a tough last 2 games that I think they will lose both. That will leave them with a 9-15-1 record (2-4-1 section record)
9 - Mankato East - 8-17 (4-9 in section play)
10 - Waseca - 7-14-1 (1-6-1 in section play)
11 - Red Wing - 3-22 (1-5 in section play)
12 - Winona - 3-20-2 (2-9-1 in section play)
13 - Austin - 3-21-1 (2-10-1 in section play)
I believe this is a two team section, but when one of those teams has been the section Champion 5 years running and the other team being a Roy Nystrom led Albert Lea, I guess you can't count out the possibility of an upset. In the end, I believe West will get it done and actually get seeded in the top 4 at the Tourney!
1 - New Prague - Should end the season by wining their last 2 leaving them 18-4-3 (8-0 in the section). Not much debate here for the #1 seed.
2 - Mankato West - With 2 games left, I don't believe they can lose the #2 seed. With that said, I think they will win the last two and finish with a 23-2 record (13-1 in section play).
3 - Rocherter Lourdes - Three non section games remain. I think they will go 1-2 in those games brining them to 7-17-1 (3-3 in section play). Reason for the 3 seed is the all 3 section losses were to the top dogs West and NP twice and the all important win over Albert Lea.
4 - Albert Lea - 3 games left and as I stated above, they will likely drop the game against West. The other 2 (Mankato East and Winona) should be wins for a 14-10-1 overall record (6-4 section record).
5 - La Crescent - 2 games left and I see them going 1-1 in those contests bringing them to 15-6-4 (5-0-1 in the section) Ugly tie vs Winona but their success vs the rest of the section makes up for it.
6 - LeSueur/St. Peter - 14-8-2 (5-3 in section play) Solid win over Faribault but the loss to La Crescent leaves them at the 6 slot. The loss to Austin is not good and could possibly drop them to 7.
7 - Faribault - Three games remaining (Dodge Co, Austin and Owatonna) and should win 2 bringing them to 11-11-2 (8-4-1). I do not see any bad losses but the head to head loss to LSP prevents them from moving up to 5.
8 - Northfield - it will be a tough last 2 games that I think they will lose both. That will leave them with a 9-15-1 record (2-4-1 section record)
9 - Mankato East - 8-17 (4-9 in section play)
10 - Waseca - 7-14-1 (1-6-1 in section play)
11 - Red Wing - 3-22 (1-5 in section play)
12 - Winona - 3-20-2 (2-9-1 in section play)
13 - Austin - 3-21-1 (2-10-1 in section play)
I believe this is a two team section, but when one of those teams has been the section Champion 5 years running and the other team being a Roy Nystrom led Albert Lea, I guess you can't count out the possibility of an upset. In the end, I believe West will get it done and actually get seeded in the top 4 at the Tourney!
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Yes, I would agree that this loss certainly doesn't clear up the seeding spot for Lourdes--however, it is just one game in a 25-game season.
I still see New Prague and West as a clear 1 and 2--while I think West will come out of 1A, I think NP has earned the 1 seed, especially given their road win over West.
I also think Albert Lea is a solid 3 seed--I don't give that much weight to a 1 goal home victory for Lourdes over them. Home crowd, last change, etc.
Its in the next group to me where it will get real interesting as the coaches decide where to seed everyone (alphabetical: Faribault, La Crescent, Lourdes, LS/H/SP/TCU, and Northfield). As stated, a 1 goal home victory over AL does not hold that much weight for me for Lourdes as a differentiating factor (for example, NP beats Shakopee by 1 on the road but by 4 at home , similar for away/home wins with Chaska at 1 and 5). A previous poster also noted as a quality win LS/H/SP/TCU's win over Fairbault--again, a 1 goal (1+EN) road loss for Fbo, so at best I see it as a draw (with no return game to compare).
La Crescent is the real wild card to me as I have not gotten to see them play--they have certainly put up a nice record, but with playing a lot of western Wisconsin teams which I don't believe are viewed as having real strong programs. Same thing with LC, they have an OT home win over LS/H/SP/TCU--that's not enough for me to put them ahead of LS, especially with LC's home ties with both Winona and Dodge County.
For arguments sake, I going to throw out where I would see them:
4. Lourdes
5. Faribault
6. LS/H/SP/TCU
7. Northfield
8. La Crescent
(and I repeat, I have not gotten a chance to see LC, which quite possibly downgrades where I view them).
As far as the remaining 5 teams (Austin, Mankato-East, Red Wing, Waseca, and Winona) I don't see any likely upsets coming out of this group, but on any given night, with a lucky bounce and a couple of stupid penalties, anything can happen.
Playoff hockey's around the corner--nothing better than this time of year, when we all find out how far off we were in our predictions.
I still see New Prague and West as a clear 1 and 2--while I think West will come out of 1A, I think NP has earned the 1 seed, especially given their road win over West.
I also think Albert Lea is a solid 3 seed--I don't give that much weight to a 1 goal home victory for Lourdes over them. Home crowd, last change, etc.
Its in the next group to me where it will get real interesting as the coaches decide where to seed everyone (alphabetical: Faribault, La Crescent, Lourdes, LS/H/SP/TCU, and Northfield). As stated, a 1 goal home victory over AL does not hold that much weight for me for Lourdes as a differentiating factor (for example, NP beats Shakopee by 1 on the road but by 4 at home , similar for away/home wins with Chaska at 1 and 5). A previous poster also noted as a quality win LS/H/SP/TCU's win over Fairbault--again, a 1 goal (1+EN) road loss for Fbo, so at best I see it as a draw (with no return game to compare).
La Crescent is the real wild card to me as I have not gotten to see them play--they have certainly put up a nice record, but with playing a lot of western Wisconsin teams which I don't believe are viewed as having real strong programs. Same thing with LC, they have an OT home win over LS/H/SP/TCU--that's not enough for me to put them ahead of LS, especially with LC's home ties with both Winona and Dodge County.
For arguments sake, I going to throw out where I would see them:
4. Lourdes
5. Faribault
6. LS/H/SP/TCU
7. Northfield
8. La Crescent
(and I repeat, I have not gotten a chance to see LC, which quite possibly downgrades where I view them).
As far as the remaining 5 teams (Austin, Mankato-East, Red Wing, Waseca, and Winona) I don't see any likely upsets coming out of this group, but on any given night, with a lucky bounce and a couple of stupid penalties, anything can happen.
Playoff hockey's around the corner--nothing better than this time of year, when we all find out how far off we were in our predictions.
Burkel wasn't in net if I heard right, so that might be something worth considering. But being out-shot 40-21 against St. Francis isn't that impressive either...BadgerBob82 wrote:This has to hurt their chances for a top 5 seed?goldy313 wrote:St Francis 9
Lourdes 1
I would say it definitely hurts them, but I don't think it's enough to bump them from a top 5 spot. The win over Albert Lea pretty much assured them a top five seed, and there isn't a great measure to compare them with teams like La Crescent for example who has wins, but against bad competition, whereas Lourdes has losses, but against great competition.
Really the one measure for Lourdes is losses to New Prague and West and, while they were clearly outplayed, it wasn't a huge blowout on the scoreboard. Ultimately, Lourdes won the games they needed to that would keep them within the top five i.e. Northfield, and Albert Lea. I would include the Red Wing game as well considering it's a section opponent, but I can't see that win as significant being as I can't imagine a scenario where Red Wing ends up higher than the 9th seed.
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Blake 7
Lourdes 1
Lourdes isn't helping themselves get a top 4 seed with 2 blowout losses. That said if I were either West or New Prague I'd rather see Lourdes on the other side of the bracket and the Eagles could be anywhere from #3 down to #7.
Faribault 2
Austin 0
West 4
Century 2, that surprises me some, it seems West is playing close games against some weaker opponents, teams Farmington blew out and Farmington and New Prague are pretty close.
Lourdes 1
Lourdes isn't helping themselves get a top 4 seed with 2 blowout losses. That said if I were either West or New Prague I'd rather see Lourdes on the other side of the bracket and the Eagles could be anywhere from #3 down to #7.
Faribault 2
Austin 0
West 4
Century 2, that surprises me some, it seems West is playing close games against some weaker opponents, teams Farmington blew out and Farmington and New Prague are pretty close.
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Lourdes was absolutely dominated tonight. It should be very interesting to see how the seedings play out.goldy313 wrote:Blake 7
Lourdes 1
Lourdes isn't helping themselves get a top 4 seed with 2 blowout losses. That said if I were either West or New Prague I'd rather see Lourdes on the other side of the bracket and the Eagles could be anywhere from #3 down to #7.
Faribault 2
Austin 0
West 4
Century 2, that surprises me some, it seems West is playing close games against some weaker opponents, teams Farmington blew out and Farmington and New Prague are pretty close.
I too, was curious about the West/Century score.. West outshot them 41-12, so I'm not looking into things too much.
Does anyone know when the seeds are official for this section?
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Looking at four rankings that I know of (MNHockeyRankings, PageStat Rankings, MnHS Hockey Rankings, and QRF Rankings) a composite using all four (just raw rank composites, no scoring/weighting), those rankings through 2/8 (for a couple that is the most recent posted) puts the teams as follows:
1. Mankato West
2. New Prague
3. Albert Lea
4. Rochester Lourdes
5. Northfield
6. Le Sueur
7. Faribault
T8. La Crescent
T8. Red Wing
10. Austin
T11. Winona
T11. Mankato East
13. Winona
If you drop out the top and bottom ranks from the four for each team, the only changes are that Lourdes moves ahead of Albert Lea, Faribault moves ahead of Le Sueur, and the tie comes off between Winona and East. Just numbers though.....the coaches on Sunday have the final say.
1. Mankato West
2. New Prague
3. Albert Lea
4. Rochester Lourdes
5. Northfield
6. Le Sueur
7. Faribault
T8. La Crescent
T8. Red Wing
10. Austin
T11. Winona
T11. Mankato East
13. Winona
If you drop out the top and bottom ranks from the four for each team, the only changes are that Lourdes moves ahead of Albert Lea, Faribault moves ahead of Le Sueur, and the tie comes off between Winona and East. Just numbers though.....the coaches on Sunday have the final say.