7AA 2014-15

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:22 pm

Mouse in the corner wrote:
alcloseshaver wrote:
Mouse in the corner wrote: The nice thing about that whole deal from the stand point of Rapids is that ER gave them all they had and barely beat them. Rapids was in the middle of a slide that set a record for them, had way way way too many penalties and had their goalie ran and held down for the loss. If we assume that the Rapids team is going to come into that game with some swagger and not their heads hanging, that the penalties will get reduced and that the refs who call the game will make that call (most refs would I think) because they are interested in calling it fairly and not in getting out of the building as quick as they can, Rapids should win. ER was playing great in peak form when they played Rapids the last time. Rapids was skidding out of control at that point in their season. Not good for ER going forward as the upside for Rapids has way more room to move up than what ER has/had.
Peak form? It was their 4th game in 5 days and they played very poorly against EP and only had 2 respectable periods against Edina. Playing more soundly in the defensive zone and the Soph goalie will be OK currently. Also should see the return of their top 2 man soon after a broken ankle. Peak Form TBD.
The game they played against Rapids was very very good. Peak form. The fact that they are missing a guy now and played poorly for parts of other games points to them being human but does not take away from the game they played against Rapids.

And this is based the eye test from that game? Is that the last time you have seen them play? Also the man missing missed the Rapids game. Maybe that was Rapids best game of the year?

Mouse in the corner · Post by **Mouse in the corner** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:17 pm

Ok, I have seen them play a few times this year. Not lots and certainly not all but a few. I have also seen about 10 other teams play a few times this year including Rapids.

Of course I used the old eye test. I figure that we all do it. We go to a game and lean against the glass and watch it. We keep a rough running idea in our head of shots on net for each team, how many were scoring chances and how many were throw ins. How do they pass? Can they catch a pass? How do they look over all, well organized (Hermantown's forecheck is the gold standard here) or sloppy? Who is good and who were you told is good and you had to go to the roster to find out their number so you could watch for them because they didn't stick out? The quality and quanity of penalties, etc. Roughly, no counting devices or notes written down. Then you listen to the announcer at the end of the period and game and hear what their shot counts are. You go to the arena and do your own math and then listen to them and realize that you either missed or added a pretty good percentage of shots sometimes for both teams, sometimes for only the home team. Sometimes shots added and sometimes taken away. I have seen them added and subtracted from the home team and/or the visitors. You have to wonder about the person who is running the shot clock and only hope that they are better at counting goals than they are shots. And __then__ you go hit the MNHockey hub site to check out a few other games and realize that you were not at the game you thought you were at.......

A side note here. How can a person go to the arena and get a rough count and be way off of what is on the clock. Then go to the "offical" stats on the hub and see totally different numbers and __then__ read a write up on the game from somebody and they have different numbers too? How can 4 different numbers (pretty divergent numbers here, we are not talking a 1 or 2 shot difference here, I have seen up to 10 shots added or subtracted) come from the same game? How can you watch a line play and think "wow, they have it clicking" only to learn that the people who know about such things say they were terrible.

With all of that variability how can you trust anything that is reported? You can't. You either use your own eye test or you are really running a risk when you hang your name on a writeu up or analysis of a game.

For that reason I go with my eye test. Granted, I am not a professional hockey game eye tester so I probalby watch it differently than a professional would but I figure that if I am consistant and honest with myself then I am OK. For that reason I think that ER is at risk when they meet up with Rapids later this season.

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:23 pm

Got it, like ER everyone at risk. See Paul Martin's senior year...

GoldenBear · Post by **GoldenBear** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:45 pm

Mouse--great summary. Right on the mark in my opinion.

boblee · Post by **boblee** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:46 pm

Mouse in the corner wrote:Ok, I have seen them play a few times this year. Not lots and certainly not all but a few. I have also seen about 10 other teams play a few times this year including Rapids.

Of course I used the old eye test. I figure that we all do it. We go to a game and lean against the glass and watch it. We keep a rough running idea in our head of shots on net for each team, how many were scoring chances and how many were throw ins. How do they pass? Can they catch a pass? How do they look over all, well organized (Hermantown's forecheck is the gold standard here) or sloppy? Who is good and who were you told is good and you had to go to the roster to find out their number so you could watch for them because they didn't stick out? The quality and quanity of penalties, etc. Roughly, no counting devices or notes written down. Then you listen to the announcer at the end of the period and game and hear what their shot counts are. You go to the arena and do your own math and then listen to them and realize that you either missed or added a pretty good percentage of shots sometimes for both teams, sometimes for only the home team. Sometimes shots added and sometimes taken away. I have seen them added and subtracted from the home team and/or the visitors. You have to wonder about the person who is running the shot clock and only hope that they are better at counting goals than they are shots. And __then__ you go hit the MNHockey hub site to check out a few other games and realize that you were not at the game you thought you were at.......

A side note here. How can a person go to the arena and get a rough count and be way off of what is on the clock. Then go to the "offical" stats on the hub and see totally different numbers and __then__ read a write up on the game from somebody and they have different numbers too? How can 4 different numbers (pretty divergent numbers here, we are not talking a 1 or 2 shot difference here, I have seen up to 10 shots added or subtracted) come from the same game? How can you watch a line play and think "wow, they have it clicking" only to learn that the people who know about such things say they were terrible.

With all of that variability how can you trust anything that is reported? You can't. You either use your own eye test or you are really running a risk when you hang your name on a writeu up or analysis of a game.

For that reason I go with my eye test. Granted, I am not a professional hockey game eye tester so I probalby watch it differently than a professional would but I figure that if I am consistant and honest with myself then I am OK. For that reason I think that ER is at risk when they meet up with Rapids later this season.

The guy doing the clock puts up their count at the arena. The person who does the Hub is doing their own count. The web story is using an independent statistician. You are counting yourself. That's how you get 4. The shot tracking really doesn't matter one iota, though. Which you alluded to in your post.

NLHockey · Post by **NLHockey** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:39 pm

boblee wrote:
Mouse in the corner wrote:Ok, I have seen them play a few times this year. Not lots and certainly not all but a few. I have also seen about 10 other teams play a few times this year including Rapids.

Of course I used the old eye test. I figure that we all do it. We go to a game and lean against the glass and watch it. We keep a rough running idea in our head of shots on net for each team, how many were scoring chances and how many were throw ins. How do they pass? Can they catch a pass? How do they look over all, well organized (Hermantown's forecheck is the gold standard here) or sloppy? Who is good and who were you told is good and you had to go to the roster to find out their number so you could watch for them because they didn't stick out? The quality and quanity of penalties, etc. Roughly, no counting devices or notes written down. Then you listen to the announcer at the end of the period and game and hear what their shot counts are. You go to the arena and do your own math and then listen to them and realize that you either missed or added a pretty good percentage of shots sometimes for both teams, sometimes for only the home team. Sometimes shots added and sometimes taken away. I have seen them added and subtracted from the home team and/or the visitors. You have to wonder about the person who is running the shot clock and only hope that they are better at counting goals than they are shots. And __then__ you go hit the MNHockey hub site to check out a few other games and realize that you were not at the game you thought you were at.......

A side note here. How can a person go to the arena and get a rough count and be way off of what is on the clock. Then go to the "offical" stats on the hub and see totally different numbers and __then__ read a write up on the game from somebody and they have different numbers too? How can 4 different numbers (pretty divergent numbers here, we are not talking a 1 or 2 shot difference here, I have seen up to 10 shots added or subtracted) come from the same game? How can you watch a line play and think "wow, they have it clicking" only to learn that the people who know about such things say they were terrible.

With all of that variability how can you trust anything that is reported? You can't. You either use your own eye test or you are really running a risk when you hang your name on a writeu up or analysis of a game.

For that reason I go with my eye test. Granted, I am not a professional hockey game eye tester so I probalby watch it differently than a professional would but I figure that if I am consistant and honest with myself then I am OK. For that reason I think that ER is at risk when they meet up with Rapids later this season.
The guy doing the clock puts up their count at the arena. The person who does the Hub is doing their own count. The web story is using an independent statistician. You are counting yourself. That's how you get 4. The shot tracking really doesn't matter one iota, though. Which you alluded to in your post.

Wait, why would Hockey Hub have different stats. Aren't the official stats sent by the home team to the Hockey Hub? Why would they get changed?

Mazak55 · Post by **Mazak55** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 8:32 pm

I've seen STMA ranked 19 in AA this week. That is ahead of GR And East. Help me out here. The Follow the Puck rankings take many of the same factors into account when ranking these teams. Why would they be ranked way higher and get a 4 or 5 cede? I realize their strength of schedule is weaker than some teams in the section but that's all factored in. Full disclosure here, I watch this team quite a bit. They are a legit contender in this section no matter how much you want to discredit them.

Post by **karl(east)** » Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:56 pm

Mazak55 wrote:I've seen STMA ranked 19 in AA this week. That is ahead of GR And East. Help me out here. The Follow the Puck rankings take many of the same factors into account when ranking these teams. Why would they be ranked way higher and get a 4 or 5 cede? I realize their strength of schedule is weaker than some teams in the section but that's all factored in. Full disclosure here, I watch this team quite a bit. They are a legit contender in this section no matter how much you want to discredit them.

FTP's rankings, while interesting and not horrible, have real issues (see other discussions on this forum) and are used by no one to determine section seeding.

I don't think any intelligent follower of this section is writing off STMA, or thinks they couldn't beat GR or DE. But when it comes to seeds, state ranking matters little, especially when the teams in question are not in the top 10-15. Section record is by far the most important thing, but STMA doesn't play the 2 of the 3 favorites here, and however you try to spin the East game, they still lost it.

If they were doing amazing things outside of the section, then you'd buy it. But they have one win (Anoka) that would be at all "quality," and losses to East Ridge and (especially) Monticello do not help. Maybe it'll change, but teams with bad schedules traditionally don't get the benefit of the doubt at the seeding meeting, and I think that's defensible. Better to stick with what you know than engage in vague speculation.

They can lock up the 4-seed with a win over Cloquet, and could conceivably surpass East for #3 if the Hounds lose 2 of their 3 remaining section games (Flake, Elk River, Cloquet) and don't do much else. They don't control their own destiny in that regard, though, so that's why I'd keep them at #4 for now.

TheHockeyDJ · Post by **TheHockeyDJ** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 7:54 am

Big 7AA games tonight:

Andover at Cloquet

Forest Lake at Duluth East

crw · Post by **crw** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:14 pm

TheHockeyDJ wrote:Big 7AA games tonight:

Andover at Cloquet

Forest Lake at Duluth East

If Andover and FL can pull off wins tonight then that could really put a spin on things

boblee · Post by **boblee** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 1:24 pm

NLHockey wrote:
boblee wrote:
Mouse in the corner wrote:Ok, I have seen them play a few times this year. Not lots and certainly not all but a few. I have also seen about 10 other teams play a few times this year including Rapids.

Of course I used the old eye test. I figure that we all do it. We go to a game and lean against the glass and watch it. We keep a rough running idea in our head of shots on net for each team, how many were scoring chances and how many were throw ins. How do they pass? Can they catch a pass? How do they look over all, well organized (Hermantown's forecheck is the gold standard here) or sloppy? Who is good and who were you told is good and you had to go to the roster to find out their number so you could watch for them because they didn't stick out? The quality and quanity of penalties, etc. Roughly, no counting devices or notes written down. Then you listen to the announcer at the end of the period and game and hear what their shot counts are. You go to the arena and do your own math and then listen to them and realize that you either missed or added a pretty good percentage of shots sometimes for both teams, sometimes for only the home team. Sometimes shots added and sometimes taken away. I have seen them added and subtracted from the home team and/or the visitors. You have to wonder about the person who is running the shot clock and only hope that they are better at counting goals than they are shots. And __then__ you go hit the MNHockey hub site to check out a few other games and realize that you were not at the game you thought you were at.......

A side note here. How can a person go to the arena and get a rough count and be way off of what is on the clock. Then go to the "offical" stats on the hub and see totally different numbers and __then__ read a write up on the game from somebody and they have different numbers too? How can 4 different numbers (pretty divergent numbers here, we are not talking a 1 or 2 shot difference here, I have seen up to 10 shots added or subtracted) come from the same game? How can you watch a line play and think "wow, they have it clicking" only to learn that the people who know about such things say they were terrible.

With all of that variability how can you trust anything that is reported? You can't. You either use your own eye test or you are really running a risk when you hang your name on a writeu up or analysis of a game.

For that reason I go with my eye test. Granted, I am not a professional hockey game eye tester so I probalby watch it differently than a professional would but I figure that if I am consistant and honest with myself then I am OK. For that reason I think that ER is at risk when they meet up with Rapids later this season.
The guy doing the clock puts up their count at the arena. The person who does the Hub is doing their own count. The web story is using an independent statistician. You are counting yourself. That's how you get 4. The shot tracking really doesn't matter one iota, though. Which you alluded to in your post.
Wait, why would Hockey Hub have different stats. Aren't the official stats sent by the home team to the Hockey Hub? Why would they get changed?

The guy entering the number on the scoreboard likely isn't the team statistician who enters the info on the Hub. Typically the numbers get changed because they were entered incorrectly to begin with. For goals and assists, they may get changed after watching video highlights. Unlikely that would change for a goalie.

Slammer · Post by **Slammer** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:21 pm

Hounds win over Forest Lake 6-2 and now have won three straight. Record is finally above .500.

TheHockeyDJ · Post by **TheHockeyDJ** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:02 am

Cloquet dominates in shots but ties Andover 2-2. I think if Forest Lake beats Andover this month that the Rangers having already beat Cloquet would have a good argument for the 5 seed and putting Cloquet at the 6 seed (vs #3 Duluth East).

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 8:43 am

East joins the NWSC for 4 of their next 5 games. If they finish strong will we hear the seeding argument they used last year to supplant ER from the 1 seed that they are playing well at the end to steal the 2 seed from Rapids? It worked last year. Rapids has some work to do this weekend.

Mouse in the corner · Post by **Mouse in the corner** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:14 am

alcloseshaver wrote:East joins the NWSC for 4 of their next 5 games. If they finish strong will we hear the seeding argument they used last year to supplant ER from the 1 seed that they are playing well at the end to steal the 2 seed from Rapids? It worked last year. Rapids has some work to do this weekend.

Without a doubt he will try to make that argument but I think the fact that GR pretty well handled East at the end of the season will be the tie breaker and GR should get the #2 seed.

Any news on Keirstedt from ER? last I heard he left a game and did not return. That might be the big factor there if he does not return. He is the strongest D in the section IMHO and if he is not back when they play East and if you go by the idea that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and awhile East could win that game which would really give them some ammo.

northwoods oldtimer · Post by **northwoods oldtimer** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:52 am

Mouse in the corner wrote:
alcloseshaver wrote:East joins the NWSC for 4 of their next 5 games. If they finish strong will we hear the seeding argument they used last year to supplant ER from the 1 seed that they are playing well at the end to steal the 2 seed from Rapids? It worked last year. Rapids has some work to do this weekend.
Without a doubt he will try to make that argument but I think the fact that GR pretty well handled East at the end of the season will be the tie breaker and GR should get the #2 seed.

Any news on Keirstedt from ER? last I heard he left a game and did not return. That might be the big factor there if he does not return. He is the strongest D in the section IMHO and if he is not back when they play East and if you go by the idea that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and awhile East could win that game which would really give them some ammo.

Fluke

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:54 am

Kiersted has an upper body injury

He will be fine.

Mouse in the corner · Post by **Mouse in the corner** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:55 am

northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Mouse in the corner wrote:
alcloseshaver wrote:East joins the NWSC for 4 of their next 5 games. If they finish strong will we hear the seeding argument they used last year to supplant ER from the 1 seed that they are playing well at the end to steal the 2 seed from Rapids? It worked last year. Rapids has some work to do this weekend.
Without a doubt he will try to make that argument but I think the fact that GR pretty well handled East at the end of the season will be the tie breaker and GR should get the #2 seed.

Any news on Keirstedt from ER? last I heard he left a game and did not return. That might be the big factor there if he does not return. He is the strongest D in the section IMHO and if he is not back when they play East and if you go by the idea that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and awhile East could win that game which would really give them some ammo.

Fluke

Yes, I was giving you the fluke goal that East scored at the end of the game. And I agree with you it was. But for the rest of the game GR owned them. Therefore, I think GR is the #2 seed.

northwoods oldtimer · Post by **northwoods oldtimer** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:58 am

Mouse in the corner wrote:
northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Mouse in the corner wrote: Without a doubt he will try to make that argument but I think the fact that GR pretty well handled East at the end of the season will be the tie breaker and GR should get the #2 seed.

Any news on Keirstedt from ER? last I heard he left a game and did not return. That might be the big factor there if he does not return. He is the strongest D in the section IMHO and if he is not back when they play East and if you go by the idea that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and awhile East could win that game which would really give them some ammo.

Fluke
Yes, I was giving you the fluke goal that East scored at the end of the game. And I agree with you it was. But for the rest of the game GR owned them. Therefore, I think GR is the #2 seed.

3-5 for the orange and black. They don't play like a 2 seed.

Usthockey13 · Post by **Usthockey13** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:01 am

So what if East beats ER & CEC and in turn finishes withe better overall record than GR? East would have beat a team that beat GR and one that they split with. I know the H2H game with GR will count against them.

Mouse in the corner wrote:
northwoods oldtimer wrote:
Mouse in the corner wrote: Without a doubt he will try to make that argument but I think the fact that GR pretty well handled East at the end of the season will be the tie breaker and GR should get the #2 seed.

Any news on Keirstedt from ER? last I heard he left a game and did not return. That might be the big factor there if he does not return. He is the strongest D in the section IMHO and if he is not back when they play East and if you go by the idea that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and awhile East could win that game which would really give them some ammo.

Fluke
Yes, I was giving you the fluke goal that East scored at the end of the game. And I agree with you it was. But for the rest of the game GR owned them. Therefore, I think GR is the #2 seed.

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:43 am

We all know East will somehow get the top seed...

Traxler · Post by **Traxler** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:03 am

I am amused by how locked people think the seeds are at any point throughout the season. With very few exceptions seeds aren't locked up until the season is over.

Usthockey13 · Post by **Usthockey13** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 11:07 am

They'll be locked at about 7pm on Feb 11

Traxler wrote:I am amused by how locked people think the seeds are at any point throughout the season. With very few exceptions seeds aren't locked up until the season is over.

kniven · Post by **kniven** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 1:52 pm

Traxler wrote:I am amused by how locked people think the seeds are at any point throughout the season. With very few exceptions seeds aren't locked up until the season is over.

I think everybody in this forum deep down knows this, but as diehard fans of their prospective teams, it's fun to talk hockey especially their favorite team. That is what we do!! I am a CEC Lumberjack hockey diehard, and I personally not concerned with the seas we get or who we have to play. You need 3 in a row to make it to state no matter where your favorite team is seeded. And I think we can go on a 3 game winning streak to get to the X.

Slammer · Post by **Slammer** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:17 pm

Mouse in the corner wrote:
alcloseshaver wrote:East joins the NWSC for 4 of their next 5 games. If they finish strong will we hear the seeding argument they used last year to supplant ER from the 1 seed that they are playing well at the end to steal the 2 seed from Rapids? It worked last year. Rapids has some work to do this weekend.
Without a doubt he will try to make that argument but I think the fact that GR pretty well handled East at the end of the season will be the tie breaker and GR should get the #2 seed.

Any news on Keirstedt from ER? last I heard he left a game and did not return. That might be the big factor there if he does not return. He is the strongest D in the section IMHO and if he is not back when they play East and if you go by the idea that even a blind squirrel finds a nut once and awhile East could win that game which would really give them some ammo.

Remember, that "blind squirrel" you are talking about has been to state 5 times in a row...