2017 Class A State Tournament (Discussion)

[MNHockeyFan]

First, congratulations to all of the teams going to St. Paul! I believe nu2hockey will get a separate "pick 'em" contest thread going, so this one's intended for speculation, comments and miscellaneous discussion of the Class A Tournament.

To get things started, here are the teams and their respective records heading into the Tournament:

1A Northfield (19-6-3)
2A Mound Westonka (21-6-0)
3A Mankato East (17-9-1)
4A St. Paul United (19-6-2)
5A Blake (24-2-1)
6A Alexandria (14-12-1)
7A Hibbing/Chisholm (17-10-1)
8A Warroad (17-8-2)

Two big questions are:
1. Which teams (one through five) will be seeded, and
2. Can anybody knock off Blake, which most would agree is the overwhelming favorite to win it?

On the first question, here's the "empty bracket" from the MSHSL site:
http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/showxmlbrack ... acket=7389

And here are the teams that I've divided into three groups for seeding purposes, showing their last (LPH rank) as of 2/15. Nos. 1-3 are pretty much decided IMO:

1. Blake (1)
2. St. Paul United (3)
3. Warroad (4)

We then have four teams that could get Seeds 4 & 5, listed in order of their last LPH rank:

Mound Westonka (11)
Alexandria (12)
Hibbing/Chisholm (13)
Northfield (16)

I briefly looked at each of these team's computer rankings (KRACH, LSQ and QRF) and there is no consensus as to which two should get Seed Nos. 4 & 5. However based on all four rankings it is pretty clear that Mankato East will be designated as one of the three "Random Draws", each of whom I suspect will be praying they don't 'randomly draw' the Blake Bears! In any case I would expect the seeds to be announced in a manner of days.

The answer to the second question - can anyone knock off Blake? - is in my opinion "possible, but extremely unlikely". I don't have any horse in the race, just hoping for a competitive tournament that's exciting to watch.

[jg2112]

First, congratulations to all of the teams going to St. Paul! I believe nu2hockey will get a separate "pick 'em" contest thread going, so this one's intended for speculation, comments and miscellaneous discussion of the Class A Tournament.

To get things started, here are the teams and their respective records heading into the Tournament:

1A Northfield (19-6-3)
2A Mound Westonka (21-6-0)
3A Mankato East (17-9-1)
4A St. Paul United (19-6-2)
5A Blake (24-2-1)
6A Alexandria (14-12-1)
7A Hibbing/Chisholm (17-10-1)
8A Warroad (17-8-2)

Two big questions are:
1. Which teams (one through five) will be seeded, and
2. Can anybody knock off Blake, which most would agree is the overwhelming favorite to win it?

On the first question, here's the "empty bracket" from the MSHSL site:
http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/showxmlbrack ... acket=7389

And here are the teams that I've divided into three groups for seeding purposes, showing their last (LPH rank) as of 2/15. Nos. 1-3 are pretty much decided IMO:

1. Blake (1)
2. St. Paul United (3)
3. Warroad (4)

We then have four teams that could get Seeds 4 & 5, listed in order of their last LPH rank:

Mound Westonka (11)
Alexandria (12)
Hibbing/Chisholm (13)
Northfield (16)

I briefly looked at each of these team's computer rankings (KRACH, LSQ and QRF) and there is no consensus as to which two should get Seed Nos. 4 & 5. However based on all four rankings it is pretty clear that Mankato East will be designated as one of the three "Random Draws", each of whom I suspect will be praying they don't 'randomly draw' the Blake Bears! In any case I would expect the seeds to be announced in a manner of days.

The answer to the second question - can anyone knock off Blake? - is in my opinion "possible, but extremely unlikely". I don't have any horse in the race, just hoping for a competitive tournament that's exciting to watch.

I would predict Mound takes the 4th seed.

Nobody's beating Blake. I predict Blake 6 - SPU 3 in the final.

[LSQRANK]

Code: Select all

!LSQRank  (c) Dr. Matt Stevens 
! 
! 
!Projected MN Girls State Tournament 
!2017 Seedings  (UPDATED: 12 noon, 17-FEB-2017) 
! 
!                                         regular                        
!         LSQRank                         season   RAW   AVG       WGT   WGT   [---- Normalized ----] 
! Seed    Score    Sec  Team              record   PTS   SOS       PTS   PCT    AGF     AGA     AMOV 
!============================================================================================================= 
! 1       1000.0   6 AA  Edina             23-1-1   47   89.25%   41.68  0.834  4.073   0.946   3.127 
!.............................................................................................................. 
! 2        999.0   5 AA  Blaine            19-3-3   41   80.08%   32.66  0.653  3.739   0.980   2.759 
! 2        998.5   5 AA  Maple Grove       20-4-1   41   82.01%   31.36  0.627  3.080   0.979   2.101 
!.............................................................................................................. 
! 3        998.5   4 AA  HillMurray        20-4-1   41   78.70%   30.54  0.611  3.453   1.191   2.262 
!.............................................................................................................. 
! 4        998.1   2 AA  EdenPrairie       17-6-2   36   88.44%   30.89  0.618  2.684   1.390   1.294 
! 4        997.2   2 AA  Minnetonka        12-9-4   28   87.74%   23.63  0.473 
!.............................................................................................................. 
! 5        997.2   7 AA  FLAKE             17-6-2   36   79.54%   27.62  0.552 
!==============================================================================================================  
! 6        996.6   8 AA  Brainerd          23-2-0   46   65.49%   29.57  0.591 
! 6        995.8   8 AA  Roseau            16-8-1   33   76.17%   22.79  0.456 
!.............................................................................................................. 
! 7        994.8   1 AA  Farmington        13-11-1  27 
!.............................................................................................................. 
! 8        994.9   3 AA  Eastview          13-10-2  28 
!================================================================================================================ 
! 
!Notes:  WGT PTS = Weighted W|L|T points = SUM(i=1->25)[ RSOOP(i) * RAWPTS(i)] 
! 
! 
! 
! Quarter-Finals (THU) 
! ------------------------------------------------------------------- 
! QRT  Game 1:   Edina            vs   (EV)|(FARM)|(Brainerd/Roseau) 
! QRT  Game 2:   Blaine/MG        vs   (EV)|(FARM)|(Brainerd/Roseau) 
! QRT  Game 3:   HillMurray       vs   (EV)|(FARM)|(Brainerd/Roseau) 
! QRT  Game 4:   EdenPrairie/MTK  vs    FLAKE 
! 
! Semi-Finals  (FRI) 
! ------------------------------------------------------------------- 
! SEMI Game 5:   Edina         vs   (EP/MTK)|(FLAKE) 
! SEMI Game 6:   Blaine/MG     vs    HillMurray 
! 
! Finals (SAT) 
! ----------------------------------------------------- 
! Championship:   Edina                   vs   (Blaine/MG/HillMurray) 
! 3rd Place:     (Blaine/MG/HillMurray)   vs   (EP/MTK) |  (FLAKE) 
! 
! 
!                                                regular                        
!                LSQRank                         season   RAW   AVG     WGT   WGT     [---- Normalized ----] 
! Seed    Score    Sec  Team              record   PTS   SOS     PTS   PCT      AGF     AGA     AMOV 
!============================================================================================================= 
  1       998.8    5 A  Blake             22-2-1   45   84.34%  37.35  0.753   3.261   0.998   2.263 
!............................................................................................................. 
! 2       996.0    4 A  St.PaulUnited     17-6-2   36 
!............................................................................................................. 
  3       995.8    8 A  Warroad           15-8-2   32 
!............................................................................................................. 
  5       994.4    7 A  Hibbing/Chisholm  14-10-1  29 
!............................................................................................................. 
  4       994.0    2 A  MoundWestonka     18-6-0   36 
!==============================================================================================================  
  6       993.4    1 A  Northfield        16-6-3   35 
!................................................................................................................ 
  7       993.2    6 A  Alexandria        12-12-1  25 
!................................................................................................................ 
  8       989.9    3 A  MankatoEast       15-9-1   31 
!================================================================================================================    

[MNHockeyFan]

The official bracket has been posted to the MSHSL site:
http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/showXMLbrack ... acket=7389

No real surprises, Nos. 1-3 as expected with Mound-Westonka getting #4 and Northfield #5. Alexandria gets the dubious distinction of drawing Tournament "favorite" Blake.

[Sparlimb]

Interested to see what Warroad does. They have some quality wins on their schedule this year and some not so great losses.

[nu2hockey]

The CLASS A tourney has a few discussion points that are bound to come up.

I thought looking at the TEAM'S goaltending during the just completed sectionals might be interesting. So I am posting them to see if anyone can make heads-or-tails out of them or mavbe they point to nothing.

team.........GAA.....SV%
Northfield 0.00 1.000
H/C .67 .967
SPU .50 .960
MW 1.00 .951
Alex 1.00 .950
ME 1.00 .949
Warroad 1.00 .946
Blake 2.50 .875

For the season:
Blake 1.03 .945
MW 1.86 .940
Warroad 2.01 .916
Alex 2.13 .911
Nfield 1.92 .903
H/C 2.44 .900
SPU 2.21 .881
ME 2.81 .869

About the only thing I could see is Ms Polusny of Mound Westonka is key to their tourney hopes ...

[nu2hockey]

Before the GAMES start, here is how the pick-em contest for CLASS A sees the TOURNEY:

CHAMPION:

BLAKE (13votes with avg score of 5-2)




2nd PLACE:

WARROAD (8votes)

SPU (5votes)





3rd PLACE:

SPU (6votes)

WARROAD (4votes)

NORTHFIELD (2votes)

MOUND WESTONKA (1vote)




CONSOLATION:

ALEXANDRIA (5votes)

HIBBING/CHISUM (4votes)

MOUND WESTONKA (3votes)

NORTHFIELD (1vote)

[nu2hockey]

Obviously, the ELEPHANT in the room is Blake. The conversation comes up each year how they should elect to go to Class AA. The girl's hockey world is not that big so it seems that public opinion has zero sway on the perverse attitude of the Blake administration &/or parents who revel in their team's trips to the state tourney. Yes, Blake conforms and fits to the League guidelines that allows them to participate in Class A girls hockey,but, that doesn't make it right. Especially, when it has become detrimental to the Class A tourney. Imagine, the Class A field without Blake, SPU, Breck etc.

The Class A State Tourney can and should be designed around the small schools with big community pride, not, Metro-based privates with their recruited rosters

The MSHS League hands are somewhat tied. Changes to the League's rules start with the Coach's Assoc. The MSHSL is not going to adopt any rule that coerces one specific member to play at a higher level. Any and all rules adopted must be equally applied to the membership. The only rule change that I have heard that makes any sense, and would be easily applied to all teams is for any team that wants to participate in Class A may not schedule more than 12 games in a season against Class AA opponents. That 12 games also includes any Holiday tourney games. If a team were to declare for Class A and violate the 12 game rule limit, they are ineligible for the playoffs that year.

If anyone has better ideas , plz share

[massalsa]

I cant imagine that Blake does not go to AA next year. I think that it makes sense due to their schedule this year and last and also that it is a section realignment year (every 2 years I think). I certainly hope that they do. I have not talked to any parents related to the team that feel like there is anything to prove playing A every year in the state tourney.

Assuming they make the move to AA I wonder what section? Would it be the same section as Edina/Wayzata/Hopkins/CDH? Or would it be with Tonka/EP? Or maybe create a section with privates like BSM/CDH/Hill/others?

[nu2hockey]

I cant imagine that Blake does not go to AA next year. I think that it makes sense due to their schedule this year and last and also that it is a section realignment year (every 2 years I think). I certainly hope that they do. I have not talked to any parents related to the team that feel like there is anything to prove playing A every year in the state tourney.

Assuming they make the move to AA I wonder what section? Would it be the same section as Edina/Wayzata/Hopkins/CDH? Or would it be with Tonka/EP? Or maybe create a section with privates like BSM/CDH/Hill/others?

Mas, if I were to play the wishing game, Breck,Blake, and SPU would move up. Blake has become the lightning-rod by winning.

If only Blake, I would switch Edina&Tonka to the sections they belong (Edina 2...Tonka 6). Blake into 6 and CDH back to 4 where they belong. CDH is a St Paul school, NOT a western suburban at all. Then adjust 4 with Woodbury or Irondale or if not have a pig-tail game in sections.

[nu2hockey]

After the morning session games, the rwo favs prevailing was no surprise to the pick-em players as all picked the 2 to win..

Cudos to mavs and lz94 for the correct score of WarroadvHibbing/Chisum

[JohnnyBuck]

Obviously, the ELEPHANT in the room is Blake. The conversation comes up each year how they should elect to go to Class AA. The girl's hockey world is not that big so it seems that public opinion has zero sway on the perverse attitude of the Blake administration &/or parents who revel in their team's trips to the state tourney. Yes, Blake conforms and fits to the League guidelines that allows them to participate in Class A girls hockey,but, that doesn't make it right. Especially, when it has become detrimental to the Class A tourney. Imagine, the Class A field without Blake, SPU, Breck etc.

The Class A State Tourney can and should be designed around the small schools with big community pride, not, Metro-based privates with their recruited rosters

The MSHS League hands are somewhat tied. Changes to the League's rules start with the Coach's Assoc. The MSHSL is not going to adopt any rule that coerces one specific member to play at a higher level. Any and all rules adopted must be equally applied to the membership. The only rule change that I have heard that makes any sense, and would be easily applied to all teams is for any team that wants to participate in Class A may not schedule more than 12 games in a season against Class AA opponents. That 12 games also includes any Holiday tourney games. If a team were to declare for Class A and violate the 12 game rule limit, they are ineligible for the playoffs that year.

If anyone has better ideas , plz share

Easy solution IMO. Have seven sections and the eighth section is made up of the privates. Let them battle it out with each other to make it to state.

[nu2hockey]

Obviously, the ELEPHANT in the room is Blake. The conversation comes up each year how they should elect to go to Class AA. The girl's hockey world is not that big so it seems that public opinion has zero sway on the perverse attitude of the Blake administration &/or parents who revel in their team's trips to the state tourney. Yes, Blake conforms and fits to the League guidelines that allows them to participate in Class A girls hockey,but, that doesn't make it right. Especially, when it has become detrimental to the Class A tourney. Imagine, the Class A field without Blake, SPU, Breck etc.

The Class A State Tourney can and should be designed around the small schools with big community pride, not, Metro-based privates with their recruited rosters

The MSHS League hands are somewhat tied. Changes to the League's rules start with the Coach's Assoc. The MSHSL is not going to adopt any rule that coerces one specific member to play at a higher level. Any and all rules adopted must be equally applied to the membership. The only rule change that I have heard that makes any sense, and would be easily applied to all teams is for any team that wants to participate in Class A may not schedule more than 12 games in a season against Class AA opponents. That 12 games also includes any Holiday tourney games. If a team were to declare for Class A and violate the 12 game rule limit, they are ineligible for the playoffs that year.

If anyone has better ideas , plz share

Easy solution IMO. Have seven sections and the eighth section is made up of the privates. Let them battle it out with each other to make it to state.

Too many teams with private schools in their co-op...

[thegreatone99]

Obviously, the ELEPHANT in the room is Blake. The conversation comes up each year how they should elect to go to Class AA. The girl's hockey world is not that big so it seems that public opinion has zero sway on the perverse attitude of the Blake administration &/or parents who revel in their team's trips to the state tourney. Yes, Blake conforms and fits to the League guidelines that allows them to participate in Class A girls hockey,but, that doesn't make it right. Especially, when it has become detrimental to the Class A tourney. Imagine, the Class A field without Blake, SPU, Breck etc.

The Class A State Tourney can and should be designed around the small schools with big community pride, not, Metro-based privates with their recruited rosters

The MSHS League hands are somewhat tied. Changes to the League's rules start with the Coach's Assoc. The MSHSL is not going to adopt any rule that coerces one specific member to play at a higher level. Any and all rules adopted must be equally applied to the membership. The only rule change that I have heard that makes any sense, and would be easily applied to all teams is for any team that wants to participate in Class A may not schedule more than 12 games in a season against Class AA opponents. That 12 games also includes any Holiday tourney games. If a team were to declare for Class A and violate the 12 game rule limit, they are ineligible for the playoffs that year.

If anyone has better ideas , plz share

Easy solution IMO. Have seven sections and the eighth section is made up of the privates. Let them battle it out with each other to make it to state.

Is there a way we could expand sections so each private can have their own? Maybe move CDH to region 7 next year so we can have a tournament with almost all privates to showcase their talent for all to see. This would definitely continue to grow and promote the game.

[nu2hockey]

Obviously, the ELEPHANT in the room is Blake. The conversation comes up each year how they should elect to go to Class AA. The girl's hockey world is not that big so it seems that public opinion has zero sway on the perverse attitude of the Blake administration &/or parents who revel in their team's trips to the state tourney. Yes, Blake conforms and fits to the League guidelines that allows them to participate in Class A girls hockey,but, that doesn't make it right. Especially, when it has become detrimental to the Class A tourney. Imagine, the Class A field without Blake, SPU, Breck etc.

The Class A State Tourney can and should be designed around the small schools with big community pride, not, Metro-based privates with their recruited rosters

The MSHS League hands are somewhat tied. Changes to the League's rules start with the Coach's Assoc. The MSHSL is not going to adopt any rule that coerces one specific member to play at a higher level. Any and all rules adopted must be equally applied to the membership. The only rule change that I have heard that makes any sense, and would be easily applied to all teams is for any team that wants to participate in Class A may not schedule more than 12 games in a season against Class AA opponents. That 12 games also includes any Holiday tourney games. If a team were to declare for Class A and violate the 12 game rule limit, they are ineligible for the playoffs that year.

If anyone has better ideas , plz share

Easy solution IMO. Have seven sections and the eighth section is made up of the privates. Let them battle it out with each other to make it to state.

Is there a way we could expand sections so each private can have their own? Maybe move CDH to region 7 next year so we can have a tournament with almost all privates to showcase their talent for all to see. This would definitely continue to grow and promote the game.

Sec 7A Duluth Marshall
Sec 7AA Legacy Christian (Andover)
Sec 8AA Community Christian (River Lakes)

Your covered

[Hansonbrother]

I cant imagine that Blake does not go to AA next year. I think that it makes sense due to their schedule this year and last and also that it is a section realignment year (every 2 years I think). I certainly hope that they do. I have not talked to any parents related to the team that feel like there is anything to prove playing A every year in the state tourney.

Assuming they make the move to AA I wonder what section? Would it be the same section as Edina/Wayzata/Hopkins/CDH? Or would it be with Tonka/EP? Or maybe create a section with privates like BSM/CDH/Hill/others?

Mas, if I were to play the wishing game, Breck,Blake, and SPU would move up. Blake has become the lightning-rod by winning.

If only Blake, I would switch Edina&Tonka to the sections they belong (Edina 2...Tonka 6). Blake into 6 and CDH back to 4 where they belong. CDH is a St Paul school, NOT a western suburban at all. Then adjust 4 with Woodbury or Irondale or if not have a pig-tail game in sections.

All the MSHSL has to do is stop allowing the single A teams to play double AA teams unless they can't find enough in their area to make a schedule. Clearly the only ones benefitting from this type of existing schedule are the private schools. In time, if they continually beat their schedule by 10 goals a game, they will opt up and look for better competition.

Regarding sections, I agree that CDH should move back to Section 4. Lets face facts, nobody wants to have Edina in their section, but I think it would be best if Minnetonka, Edina, and EP are all in one section. Slide Maple Grove in with section 6 to give back some of the balance of Wayzata and Hopkins, along with Benilde if Breck or Blake decide not to move up. If they do move up...Put them in Section 6 and leave MG in their existing section.

[MNHockeyFan]

Just a few comments on yesterday's games:

Mankato East/Loyola proved that they are not competitive and in the same ballpark talent-wise with the rest of the field. This makes it difficult to get a firm handle on just how strong St. Paul United really is. Obviously Joie Phelps (3 goals + 3 assists) is a tremendous player, but beyond her it's difficult to say how the team will fare against the kind of scoring threat that Mankato simply didn't have, and that starts with Warroad tomorrow. The Warriors' tandem of Oelkers and Gardner are dangerous whenever they're on the ice. But overall I like SPU's depth a little more, and as the home team they'll get to match lines which should give them a better chance of keeping Oelkers and Gardner mostly in check. Should be a very interesting matchup.

Kudos to Alexandria for making a game out of it against mighty Blake. But I don't think we saw Blake at their best; in fact I'm sure they'd be the first to admit they had an off-game yesterday, at least until the 3rd period when Alex tired and they finally took control. I'm guessing it won't take them that long when the face off against Northfield at 1:00pm on Friday.

And speaking of Northfield, what a well-coached team they proved to be. An amazing job of containing Liz Schepers, who up until yesterday had scored 56 goals in her final season with the White Hawks. The Raiders had a great game plan, and they worked it to perfection. Their problem on Friday will be that Blake has more than one Liz Schepers, and to keep the game as close as Alexandria was able to do their goalie (Mallory Tidona) will need to play the game of her life.

The Class A quarterfinals have historically featured mostly mismatches, but other than the opener we saw some good games yesterday. Maybe that's a sign that Class A is developing more depth than what used to be the case.

[slapshot18]

You have to include Warroad as a private with their recruiting.
Also, St. Cloud Cathedral is part of the St. Cloud Icebreakers in section 8AA.