Class A Rankings 12-10-17

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Who is the top Class A team in the state now?

Poll ended at Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:04 am

Hermantown
8
44%
Orono
8
44%
Mahtomedi
1
6%
Alexandria
0
No votes
Someone else
1
6%
 
Total votes: 18

HShockeywatcher
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Class A Rankings 12-10-17

Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:04 am

It's another year and there's lots of exciting Class A hockey in front of us. As always, I start with LPH's rankings and go from there, which is where the previous ranking comes from. Then at the bottom I will include teams who aren't top teams but are doing well with the schedule they have and are worthy of being mentioned. Let me know if there is someone I'm missing.

This looks like it'll be a great season, with a bunch of teams toward the top where either team could win on any given night, multiple teams who still haven't lost to Class A opponents, and a couple teams who've already played top AA teams close. Also, some teams who are able to jump up or fall down many spots in one week with the games they play.

Enjoy!

1. [1] Hermantown (1-3)
As with many recent years, the Hawks can be hard to compare to other Class A teams with their schedule. They start the season with 6 AA opponents, play 12 AA teams, 9 A teams, Superior and their holiday tournament. Of the Class A opponents on their schedule, they play 4 who were ranked preseason, the first being Cathedral on January 5. This ranking is a testament to their preseason ranking, but it'll be hard to keep them here if some other teams have great starts to their seasons.
This week: Tues @ Marshall, Sat vs New Prague

2. [3] Orono (3-0-1)
Beating EGF and tying HF, the Spartans are right on the heels of the Hawks and are a team to be reckoned with. Their lone game this season against Breck is on the road this week, which will have huge section implications.
This week: Tues @ Breck, Thurs vs Kennedy, Sat @ Blake

3. [4] Mahtomedi (1-0-1)
The Zephyrs typically start slow and don't have any Class A games under their belt yet. With a schedule that doesn't have many top Class A opponents, they have 3 big games this week, all for different reasons.
This week: Tues @ Totino-Grace, Fri vs Greenway, Sat vs Hastings

4. [5] Alexandria (3-0-1)
For a team ranked by some as high as #2 this preseason, neither opening the season with a home tie to Little Falls nor needing OT to beat River Lakes is a great start, but they haven't lost any games. The last couple years the Cardinals have been hard to rank because they didn't have many quality opponents, but this year looks a little different. They have a couple big home games this week, one with section rankings implications.
This week: Tues vs Cathedral, Thurs @ St Cloud, Sat vs East Grand Forks

5. [9] Greenway (5-0)
The Raiders are undefeated and have a 2 goal win over EGF to boot. They have 2 huge games this week.
This week: Fri @ Mahtomedi, Sat @ Cathedral

6. [6] Breck (2-3)
This is a weird start for Breck; a ND and 2 AA losses along with a 1 goal win over Delano. Their lone game against Orono on the season is a home game this week.
This week: Tues vs Orono

7. [7] Delano (3-1)
1 goal home win over EGF and then 1 goal loss to Breck isn't a terrible way to start the season. Home regional and conference games this week.
This week: Thurs vs Buffalo, Sat vs Holy Family

8. [8] East Grand Forks (3-3)
The Green Wave start the season with close road losses to Orono, Delano and Greenway but also have a shut out over Totino and a big win over Cathedral. How will they do against their Class A opponents this week?
This week: Tues @ Crookson, Thurs vs Moorhead, Sat @ Alexandria

9. [2] Cathedral (4-1)
A crushing defeat to EGF early in the season isn't great, but it's still just one game. The Crusaders have a very good schedule of Class A opponents with 14 games against the top 20 preseason teams. I wouldn't count them out at any point. They have 2 big tests this week.
This week: Tues @ Alexandria, Sat vs Greenway

10. [10] Monticello (4-1)
4 wins to start the season and a loss to Orono shouldn't diminish anything the Moose have done. They seem to be the clear favorite to win 5A again this season, but without the toughest of schedules they don't have much room for error to be ranked well throughout the season. Their two ranked Class A opponents, for example, are their last 2 regular season games.
This week: Fri vs North Branch

11. [11] Sartell-St Stephen (3-0)
The Sabres haven't been tested much yet, but this week likely will be.
This week: Tues @ Brainerd, Thurs @ Sauk Rapids, Fri vs Chaska

12. [13] Luverne (5-0)
The Cardinals have allowed 4 goals in 5 games this season. It's always cool to see Luverne do well and this season seems to be no different. They are in the SSP holiday tournament, which will be a couple more quality games.
This week: Sat vs St Paul Academy

13. [16] Virginia (5-1)
The Blue Devils have a great start to the season, with their only blemish to Greenway on the road.
This week: Tues vs Denfeld, Sat @ Eveleth-Gilbert

14. [-] Minneapolis (5-1)
Beating SPA and Blake to start the season is a great start. This week will be a good test to see how good they are.
This week: Tues @ Mound Westonka, Fri@ Crookston, Sat @ Thief River Falls

15. [15] St Paul Academy (1-3)
This week: Sat @ Luverne

Other noteworthy teams:

[18] St Paul Johnson (2-1)
This week: Fri @ Little Falls, Sat @ Detroit Lakes

Crookson (2-2)
This week: Tues vs East Grand Forks, Fri vs Minneapolis

Little Falls (3-1-2)
This week: Tues vs Prairie Center, Fri vs St Paul Johnson

North Branch (4-0)
This week: Tues @ Sauk Rapids-Rice, Fri @ Monticello, Sat vs North Shore

Kittson Central (3-0)
This week: Tues vs Red Lakes Falls, Fri @ Warroad, Sat @ International Falls

Lake of the Woods (1-0)
This week: Tues @ Bagley, Sat @ Park Rapids
Last edited by HShockeywatcher on Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:10 pm, edited 5 times in total.

goldy313
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Post by goldy313 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:18 am

Splitting hairs here.....
A 1-2-1 should not be #1, no matter their schedule. Three other teams deserve that spot.....
Luverne is underated.

It is too early to split hairs though, nice job.

Jeffy95
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Post by Jeffy95 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:16 am

Hermantown doesn't have as many transfers this year so they're down a littl bit. They still have their best two players with the Watkins kid from a Colorado and the Gotz kid from Hibbing, but not quite enough open enrollees like they've had every other year when they were good!

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:32 am

Blake is a AA school.
Section 6 AA

greenwayraider
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Post by greenwayraider » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:42 am

goldy313 wrote:Splitting hairs here.....
A 1-2-1 should not be #1, no matter their schedule. Three other teams deserve that spot.....
Luverne is underated.

It is too early to split hairs though, nice job.
The surprising thing about Hermantown is that they have allowed 20 goals in four games. That shows a weakness they never have had in recent memory. I’d still put them as favorites in Class A but at this point I’d have Orono #1 and Mahtomedi as #2 then Hermantown. Btw Greenway’s nickname is the Raiders. Also, I think Breck is living of its reputation and is not a top 10 team.

BP
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Post by BP » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:01 am

Blake and New Prague are both AA.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:46 am

Edited.
BP wrote:Blake and New Prague are both AA.
Interesting. I'm assuming New Prague is based on enrollment, but that means Blake opted up, which seems odd.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:55 am

greenwayraider wrote:
goldy313 wrote:Splitting hairs here.....
A 1-2-1 should not be #1, no matter their schedule. Three other teams deserve that spot.....
Luverne is underated.

It is too early to split hairs though, nice job.
The surprising thing about Hermantown is that they have allowed 20 goals in four games. That shows a weakness they never have had in recent memory. I’d still put them as favorites in Class A but at this point I’d have Orono #1 and Mahtomedi as #2 then Hermantown. Btw Greenway’s nickname is the Raiders. Also, I think Breck is living of its reputation and is not a top 10 team.
Edited; hopefully we found all of my mistakes.

This is definitely a give and take with teams like them, along with the Luverne and Alexandria's out there. Hermantown could be 0-6 and be the best Class A team in the state, or they could be 6-0 and not be the best. Going off historical precedent, along with it being the first rankings, I'm not seeing enough to justify huge moves one way or the other.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:21 am

HShockeywatcher wrote:Edited.
BP wrote:Blake and New Prague are both AA.
Interesting. I'm assuming New Prague is based on enrollment, but that means Blake opted up, which seems odd.[/

N
Blake has had trouble keeping - bringing in hockey players because of a desire to play AA. Girls program has been dominant at A and moved to AA.
Wanted to be consistent.

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:52 am

Hermantown is 1-3, not 1-2-1. That said, I have no objection to any ranking that keeps Hermantown at #1 until they lose to a Class A team...which hasn't happened in the regular season in nearly five years now. Two of their losses are top 15 AA teams, and their only win is over a AA team that slipped in at #15 in my rankings. The Benilde loss is the only one that is more worrying, but it came on the heels of a controversial loss to EP, and Benilde has a couple decent results now.

They are bleeding a lot of goals, which is probably a source of concern. I thought they'd be better in back given that they did return more on D than up front. But that top line is still as good as any in A, and they're having no trouble scoring. They are beatable this season, but I'll believe it when I see it.

I could buy putting Orono ahead of the Hawks based on the Holy Family tie, but want to see a few more quality results first. Mahtomedi tying Hill is a fine result, but with Hill looking down it's not a statement that they have to be in the top 2, either.

greenwayraider
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Post by greenwayraider » Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:47 am

karl(east) wrote:Hermantown is 1-3, not 1-2-1. That said, I have no objection to any ranking that keeps Hermantown at #1 until they lose to a Class A team...which hasn't happened in the regular season in nearly five years now. Two of their losses are top 15 AA teams, and their only win is over a AA team that slipped in at #15 in my rankings. The Benilde loss is the only one that is more worrying, but it came on the heels of a controversial loss to EP, and Benilde has a couple decent results now.

They are bleeding a lot of goals, which is probably a source of concern. I thought they'd be better in back given that they did return more on D than up front. But that top line is still as good as any in A, and they're having no trouble scoring. They are beatable this season, but I'll believe it when I see it.

I could buy putting Orono ahead of the Hawks based on the Holy Family tie, but want to see a few more quality results first. Mahtomedi tying Hill is a fine result, but with Hill looking down it's not a statement that they have to be in the top 2, either.

Since the rankings are as of today I don’t think Orono’s ranking should be based on what they may or may not do in the future. But when that Saturday in March comes I’ll be surprised if it’s anybody but Hermantown raising the trophy.

karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) » Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:31 pm

greenwayraider wrote:
karl(east) wrote:Hermantown is 1-3, not 1-2-1. That said, I have no objection to any ranking that keeps Hermantown at #1 until they lose to a Class A team...which hasn't happened in the regular season in nearly five years now. Two of their losses are top 15 AA teams, and their only win is over a AA team that slipped in at #15 in my rankings. The Benilde loss is the only one that is more worrying, but it came on the heels of a controversial loss to EP, and Benilde has a couple decent results now.

They are bleeding a lot of goals, which is probably a source of concern. I thought they'd be better in back given that they did return more on D than up front. But that top line is still as good as any in A, and they're having no trouble scoring. They are beatable this season, but I'll believe it when I see it.

I could buy putting Orono ahead of the Hawks based on the Holy Family tie, but want to see a few more quality results first. Mahtomedi tying Hill is a fine result, but with Hill looking down it's not a statement that they have to be in the top 2, either.

Since the rankings are as of today I don’t think Orono’s ranking should be based on what they may or may not do in the future. But when that Saturday in March comes I’ll be surprised if it’s anybody but Hermantown raising the trophy.
I'm not saying that Orono's ranking should be based on what they do in the future; I'm saying that we shouldn't put too much stock in the first few games and throw out our preseason conceptions of how good a team might be in mid-December. The sample size just isn't large enough at this point to rank strictly on results.

kniven
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Post by kniven » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:43 pm

Jeffy95 wrote:Hermantown doesn't have as many transfers this year so they're down a littl bit. They still have their best two players with the Watkins kid from a Colorado and the Gotz kid from Hibbing, but not quite enough open enrollees like they've had every other year when they were good!
Makes sense. Dropping the game 6-5 to BSM and EP only proves they belong in A.

Stang5280
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Post by Stang5280 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:47 pm

greenwayraider wrote:Also, I think Breck is living of its reputation and is not a top 10 team.
While I agree with you to the extent that this Breck squad doesn’t appear to be nearly as strong as those from previous seasons, it’s still hard to rank them lower given the road victory over Delano. Losing to Davies and two solid AA teams is hardly surprising, but the margins of defeat are somewhat concerning. We’ll find out more this week after the Orono game, but Breck doesn’t really play any significant Class A competition until January.

It seems like the larger point is that Class A is down as a whole, and even the top teams aren’t dominant. The main quibble I have regarding the rankings above is that Greenway deserves to be higher, as I’m sure you would agree.

greenwayraider
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Post by greenwayraider » Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:28 pm

If Greenway can take both games this weekend (Mahtomedi and Cathedral, both on the road) I'd say Greenway should be up to two no lower than three. If they split they stay where they are. If they lose both they should still be in the top ten. I'll be happy with a split. I will be in the Cities this weekend so I will be able to see the Mathtomedi game. I do have to give Greenway more credit I guess. They have met every challenge so far.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:48 pm

karl(east) wrote:Hermantown is 1-3, not 1-2-1. That said, I have no objection to any ranking that keeps Hermantown at #1 until they lose to a Class A team...which hasn't happened in the regular season in nearly five years now. Two of their losses are top 15 AA teams, and their only win is over a AA team that slipped in at #15 in my rankings. The Benilde loss is the only one that is more worrying, but it came on the heels of a controversial loss to EP, and Benilde has a couple decent results now.

They are bleeding a lot of goals, which is probably a source of concern. I thought they'd be better in back given that they did return more on D than up front. But that top line is still as good as any in A, and they're having no trouble scoring. They are beatable this season, but I'll believe it when I see it.

I could buy putting Orono ahead of the Hawks based on the Holy Family tie, but want to see a few more quality results first. Mahtomedi tying Hill is a fine result, but with Hill looking down it's not a statement that they have to be in the top 2, either.
This is ultimately the concern/issue with ranking a solid team who not only plays so few top Class A teams but so few Class A teams period. And it is a concern many years. This year they play Cathedral (Jan 5), @Greenway (Jan 16), Hibbing (Jan 23), @Virginia (Jan 30) and Mahtomedi (Feb 3), along with only 4 other Class A teams. You could have another team [or two] they haven't played yet, or don't play period, running the table or doing very well while Hermantown has a few stumbles here and there to better teams and it's always hard, on paper to say what should happen.

This, ultimately, is an argument that comes up every year with many people on each side of the discussion.

I also think it'll be interesting to see how Cathedral's season will play out. They have opponents in 14 of the preseason top 20.
Stang5280 wrote:It seems like the larger point is that Class A is down as a whole, and even the top teams aren’t dominant. The main quibble I have regarding the rankings above is that Greenway deserves to be higher, as I’m sure you would agree.
Why do you say that? They were the preseason #9, beat the preseason #19 by 6 and the preseason #8 by 2 and are now behind Hermantown and 3 preseason top 5 teams who haven't lost yet. Who would you bring lower than them who hasn't lost to a Class A opponent yet?

Stang5280
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Post by Stang5280 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:18 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:
Stang5280 wrote:It seems like the larger point is that Class A is down as a whole, and even the top teams aren’t dominant. The main quibble I have regarding the rankings above is that Greenway deserves to be higher, as I’m sure you would agree.
Why do you say that? They were the preseason #9, beat the preseason #19 by 6 and the preseason #8 by 2 and are now behind Hermantown and 3 preseason top 5 teams who haven't lost yet. Who would you bring lower than them who hasn't lost to a Class A opponent yet?
Alexandria, for sure. Alex has been less than stellar out of the gate, with a tie to Little Falls and an OT win over feeble River Lakes. I’m not so sure we should put so much stock in preseason rankings in any event. Once we have a few decent data points there is no reason to hold onto these preconceptions.

HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:20 pm

Stang5280 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:
Stang5280 wrote:It seems like the larger point is that Class A is down as a whole, and even the top teams aren’t dominant. The main quibble I have regarding the rankings above is that Greenway deserves to be higher, as I’m sure you would agree.
Why do you say that? They were the preseason #9, beat the preseason #19 by 6 and the preseason #8 by 2 and are now behind Hermantown and 3 preseason top 5 teams who haven't lost yet. Who would you bring lower than them who hasn't lost to a Class A opponent yet?
Alexandria, for sure. Alex has been less than stellar out of the gate, with a tie to Little Falls and an OT win over feeble River Lakes. I’m not so sure we should put so much stock in preseason rankings in any event. Once we have a few decent data points there is no reason to hold onto these preconceptions.
I think 'early games' and especially 'quality of opponent' are the two biggest traps that I've seen myself and others fall into over the years.

The early games are the first time where the result actually matters where this group is playing together. People play up, play down, don't know lines, or just have off games here and there.
The same thing can happen with opponents of all levels, with all coaches. Teams will try new things, switch up lines, overlook opponents, get too confident, a lesser team will have the game of their year, etc, but ultimately the result is what matters.
Despite all of this, did Alex lose to LF? Did they lose to RL?

The answer to both of those is no and I have a hard time dropping a team because of wins/ties.

On the other hand, you may be totally right, they may get crushed this week and be out of the top 10 this week or next, but I don't think I can glean that much from results this early.

Just one man's opinion 8)

Stang5280
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Post by Stang5280 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:04 pm

HShockeywatcher wrote:The early games are the first time where the result actually matters where this group is playing together. People play up, play down, don't know lines, or just have off games here and there.
The same thing can happen with opponents of all levels, with all coaches. Teams will try new things, switch up lines, overlook opponents, get too confident, a lesser team will have the game of their year, etc, but ultimately the result is what matters.
Despite all of this, did Alex lose to LF? Did they lose to RL?

The answer to both of those is no and I have a hard time dropping a team because of wins/ties.

On the other hand, you may be totally right, they may get crushed this week and be out of the top 10 this week or next, but I don't think I can glean that much from results this early.

Just one man's opinion 8)
I appreciate the extended explanation and also all of the work and thought you put into the rankings. Certainly not a task that I would want to take on myself. I tend to be a bit more reactionary when it comes to thinking about rankings and moving teams around, for better or worse.

Also, Alexandria is a bit of a kryptonite for me in that I root for them to come out of Section 6A, but they always let me down. So I feel like it’s hard for me to view Alex objectively and place them that high in the rankings. Of course, then I went ahead and picked them to win both games this week in the pick ‘em contest.

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SPA

Post by fastncrash » Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:25 am

SPA has declined the Scheduled GAME in Luverne this weekend.

:evil:

Incredibly WEAK.

elliott70
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Re: SPA

Post by elliott70 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:01 am

fastncrash wrote:SPA has declined the Scheduled GAME in Luverne this weekend.

:evil:

Incredibly WEAK.
Now Luverne can find a quality opponent.

I thought schools signed contracts.

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Re: SPA

Post by fastncrash » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:54 am

elliott70 wrote:
fastncrash wrote:SPA has declined the Scheduled GAME in Luverne this weekend.

:evil:

Incredibly WEAK.
Now Luverne can find a quality opponent.

I thought schools signed contracts.
The comprehensive list of quality opponents who have gameslots open at this point of the year...

1. -
2. -
3. -
4. -
5. -

elliott70
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Re: SPA

Post by elliott70 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:56 am

fastncrash wrote:
elliott70 wrote:
fastncrash wrote:SPA has declined the Scheduled GAME in Luverne this weekend.

:evil:

Incredibly WEAK.
Now Luverne can find a quality opponent.

I thought schools signed contracts.
The comprehensive list of quality opponents who have gameslots open at this point of the year...

1. -
2. -
3. -
4. -
5. -
Yes, I know.
Shame on SPA.

elliott70
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Post by elliott70 » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:57 am

Perhaps MSHSL will grant some good team an additional game to make up for this.

fastncrash
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Post by fastncrash » Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:26 pm

elliott70 wrote:Perhaps MSHSL will grant some good team an additional game to make up for this.
MSHSL? MN? Maybe you mean MI? Because MN is:

The same group that allows Non Geographically limited Schools to play in the same league as limited schools?

The same group that Allows Private Schools with unrestricted recruiting to compete against Public Schools.

The same group that allows 1850 enrollment coops to play whatever class they feel they may be the MOST competitive/dominate... even if they are 4 times bigger!

The same group that allows A Class teams to play (A majority schedule of ) AA competition throughout the season, then slide on down to A for playoffs and the State Tournament?

The same group that holds a blind eye's about Transfers from wherever (EVEN other States) then are allowed to play in THIS STATES Tournament.

Yeah, I'm not sure I'm seeing it... but keep the faith (and the Kool-Aid coming) bud.

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