AA Rankings for 12/17/17

[karl(east)]

Things are starting to take better shape now that we’ve been playing games for nearly a month. Especially at the top here.

1. Edina (7-0)
-57 goals in 7 games. Anyone still want to dispute this?
This week: Tues at #10 Cretin-Derham Hall

2. Minnetonka (6-0-1)
-The Skippers firmed up this spot nicely with a solid win over Moorhead. They continue to collect the quality wins they need, and that first round Schwan Cup game with Edina is looking bigger and bigger now. In the meantime, they have a couple of middle of the road opponents, one of whom has some section implications.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Jefferson, Sat vs. Chaska

3. St. Thomas Academy (5-1)
-Fended off a pesky Benilde team to win a fifth straight, and with their only blemish being a season-opening overtime loss to the team cementing itself as #2, this is an easy choice. The Cadets are likely as clear favorites over Hill this week as they’ve ever been.
This week: Thurs vs. Hill-Murray

4. Duluth East (3-0-2)
-The East offense looks as good as any in the state, but lapses on the other end led to a tie with Cloquet on Thursday, dropping them a spot. They’ll need to shore up in back to have a shot at the state’s elite. The week ahead is one of their biggest, as they have another top-flight opponent, a big section game, and a capable team they can’t sleep on.
This week: Tues vs. #6 Centennial, Thurs vs. #13 Duluth Marshall, Sat vs. Lakeville North

5. White Bear Lake (5-0-2)
-While I’m not sure the Bears are as good top to bottom as some of the other teams up here, they are taking care of business and avoiding questionable results so far. They can take command of the race for the top seed in 4AA with a win over Hill on Saturday.
This week: Thurs at Roseville, Sat at Hill-Murray

6. Centennial (5-0-1)
-Like Duluth East, the Cougars settled for a somewhat disappointing tie against a section rival when they skated to a 2-2 final against Blaine. This week they visit those Hounds, against whom they’ve had good success in recent years.
This week: Tues at #4 Duluth East

7. Moorhead (6-2)
-While there’s plenty to like about the Spuds, they have now lost by 3 goals to both of the other ranked teams they’ve played. That has to be a mild source of concern, and they have to show they can get some big contributions out of players who aren’t on that top line. They’re taking care of 8AA opponents, but the rest of the state may be a different question. They get some visits from 7AA teams this week.
This week: Fri vs. Cloquet, Sat vs. Grand Rapids

8. Holy Family (5-2-1)
-Followed a convincing win over STMA with a tighter one over Delano, and have settled into a groove here in the bottom portion of the top ten. A chance to make any more noise will have to wait a little while longer, though this week’s Maple Grove game may be worth a look.
This week: Tues at Waconia, Thurs at Maple Grove

9. Wayzata (3-2-1)
-The Trojans had a strong week, as they blitzed Benilde and snuck out a win over Cretin. This all but assures a top-2 seed in 6AA; whether they’re on the same planet as Edina is an open question. On paper they should be able to take care of business this coming week.
This week: Tues vs. Buffalo, Fri vs. Blake

10. Cretin-Derham Hall (4-1-1)
-The Raiders suffered their first loss of the season at the hands of Wayzata, but that overtime affair was another sign that they belong around here in the rankings. Now for an entirely different test, as we see what they can do with Edina.
This week: Tues vs. #1 Edina, Thurs at Mounds View

11. Elk River (5-2)
-All in all it was a pretty good Edina Holiday Classic for the Elks, as they won two games and did put seven up on Edina in a loss. That performance alone is almost enough to boost their ranking, but the tier just ahead of them is pretty crowded right now. Maple Grove this week gives them a shot at a second quality win.
This week: Tues vs. Maple Grove, Thurs vs. Anoka

12. Eden Prairie (3-3)
-Not a stellar showing in Edina for the Eagles, as they let one get away against Elk River and couldn’t muster much resistance to the Hornets. There’s some intrigue in their lone game this week.
This week: Sat at #14 Blaine

13. Duluth Marshall (6-1-1)
-A tie with Hermantown neither helps nor hurts the Hilltoppers here, and they did what they needed to do against St. Louis Park. Next up: a chance to prove they’re a serious contender in the section.
This week: Thurs at #4 Duluth East

14. Blaine (3-1-2)
-The Bengals had a very strong week, with a tie with Centennial and a win over Maple Grove in two big section games. Given those results, I’m willing to write off the Irondale loss and declare them a top 15 team again. Eden Prairie gives them another chance to move up the ladder this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Andover, Sat vs. #12 Eden Prairie

15. Stillwater (4-0)
-The Ponies win this week’s round of #15 roulette, though they are largely untested outside of that season-opening win over Cloquet. One more lighter week before we start getting some sense of how they stack up with the rest.
This week: Thurs vs. Woodbury

The Next Ten

Maple Grove (3-2-2)
-A loss to Blaine drops the Crimson from the top 15; their performance in the Wayzata Turkey Trot remains their high water mark. They can get back on track in a hurry by doing something against either Elk River or Holy Family this week.

Hill-Murray (4-1-2)
-Cleaned up on some conference competition this past week. The week ahead couldn’t be more different: with rivals St. Thomas and White Bear Lake upcoming, they have a chance to make up for their slowish start show what the rest of the season might hold. The Blaine and Mahtomedi ties aren’t looking so bad in retrospect, though.

Cloquet (4-3-1)
-This week showed both some worry and some promise for the Lumberjacks, as they coughed one up to Superior but also found a way to tie Duluth East. They don’t have overwhelming talent, but keep them close in a playoff game and they could find a way. They’ve got a couple of Iron Range A teams this week before heading west for another test against a top team in Moorhead.

Brainerd (3-2)
-Took care of Sartell in their lone game, which is actually not a bad result given the Sabres’ win over Chaska later in the week. Alexandria and Grand Rapids are up this week, and while the Warriors should be favored in both, upsets are certainly possible, and these games will help tell us where they belong in here.

St. Michael-Albertville (5-1)
-Got blown out by Holy Family, but have handled everyone else they’ve played. Just one game this week, and it’s against North Branch.

Eastview (5-3)
-A loss to Eagan hurts both in the rankings and in 3AA, and the Lakeville North loss isn’t looking as good with the Panthers’ struggles, so that win over Hill is doing a lot of work for the Lightning right now. Farmington and Hopkins are up next.

Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-5)
-The Red Knights’ mixed bag of a start continued, as they did a good job of hanging around with St. Thomas, but got rolled by Wayzata. They could well be playing for the right to wear white uniforms in a section quarterfinal at the Rec Center when they meet St. Louis Park this week.

Eagan (5-1)
-The Wildcats are quietly off to a strong start, including a valuable section win over Eastview. Their lone loss is to Burnsville. They can further cement top 25 status by doing well against the Lakevilles this week.

Chaska (5-1)
-A 5-2 loss to Sartell will raise some eyebrows, but we still don’t know much about the Hawks against quality AA competition. Their game with Minnetonka this week will help fix that.

St. Louis Park (2-3)
-Two blowout losses to the top two, a narrow loss to ranked Marshall, and a win over Lakeville South this past week get the Orioles on the back end of the list here. We’ll see what they can do with Benilde.

Now, a tour of the sections for the first time this season:

1AA
Lakeville North
Lakeville South
Farmington
Rochester Century
The wheels came off for the Lakevilles some this past week, leaving this section in a pretty rough place when compared to the rest of the state. South did take care of Farmington 3-0, which suggests the Tigers aren’t on their level but are capable of getting there; the Tigers play Rochester Century this week, who’s had a pretty good start against a pretty week schedule, so we’ll learn if we have our first plausible Rochester contender in years. (Is it a requirement that any semi-relevant program in this section have a cat mascot?)

2AA
2 Minnetonka
8 Holy Family
12 Eden Prairie
23 Chaska
-As expected, the Skippers have the early edge here, but Holy Family and Eden Prairie continue to give this section three top 15 teams. Chaska has been doing well, but remains an unknown quantity against quality competition; this week’s game with Minnetonka should help sort that out. Prior Lake, meanwhile, appears to have fallen off the map, but could still have a good argument for a top-4 seed if they can beat Chaska in their meeting in two weeks.

3AA
3 St. Thomas Academy
23 Eagan
21 Eastview
-It’s the Cadets all alone here. After them it’s an ugly circle of Eagan beating Eastview who beat Rosemount who beat Burnsville whose sole win is over Eagan, and maybe a few others in there for good measure, too. I’m giving the 2-seed to Eagan right now given their strong start and win over Eastview, but the Lightning could nab that back with a stronger season and a win in the second meeting, and there are a lot of other variables at play here, too.

4AA
5 White Bear Lake
15 Stillwater
17 Hill-Murray
-White Bear looks a solid step of Hill at this point, though they’ll address that on the ice on Saturday. Otherwise, the only major question here is where Stillwater falls in relation to the other two. Not much has been decided here yet.

5AA
6 Centennial
14 Blaine
16 Maple Grove
-Blaine’s strong week suggests this section will be the usual three-way slugfest despite any seeming talent imbalances. They continue their games against one another in early January, when Maple Grove will try to regain some ground against Centennial.

6AA
1 Edina
9 Wayzata
10 Cretin-Derham Hall
22 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
25 St. Louis Park
-#1 is obvious, and Wayzata has firmed up the second spot after their wins over Cretin and Benilde this past week. Benilde and respectable St. Louis Park meet for the first of two times this week as they look to figure out the 4-seed.

7AA
4 Duluth East
11 Elk River
13 Duluth Marshall
18 Cloquet
-As in 5AA, a competitor has shown that the frontrunner can be caught, but there’s still a lot to sort out here. The Marshall-East game will give us some more context this week.

8AA
7 Moorhead
19 Brainerd
20 St. Michael-Albertville
-Moorhead’s on top here, to no one’s surprise. After that, Brainerd and St. Michael-Albertville seem to have carved out a second tier for themselves. The other northern teams and St. Cloud follow up after that, providing this section with its usual strong middle tier.

[WestMetro]

Excellent work , although I’m thinking I’d have Elk a few notches higher

[alcloseshaver]

Excellent work , although I’m thinking I’d have Elk a few notches higher

About 8 or 9 at this point of the season, heck put them at 2 for the 7 goals.

[kniven]

Cloquet doesn’t have overwhelming talent? Karl, Karl, KarlEast. I love you buddy. You need to remove your beer goggles. The sophomores and juniors have gone to state every year from 1st year peeWeeAA to second year bantanAA. I was there. I’ve got the video to prove it. The seniors filled a huge roll as sophomores when Koby Bender decided not to come back his senior year. Sorry to say, KarlEast. But CEC does have overwhelming talent.

The question going into this year by pretty much everybody wasn’t the lack of overwhelming talent. The question has been the ability of the new coaching regime and CEC’s overwhelming talent to come together. It’s going to take some time. I hope by section playoffs, CEC”s overwhelming talent and our new coaching staff figure it out. Coach Smalley and the boys are working really hard to getting to know each other. 4-3–1. We are pretty much .500 after Esse abruptly stepped down after 17 years.

Randolph abruptly steps down and the Duluth Marshall head coach comes over to coach the Hounds in the same scenario. Yep. Exactly.

[elliott70]

Cloquet doesn’t have overwhelming talent? Karl, Karl, KarlEast. I love you buddy. You need to remove your beer goggles. The sophomores and juniors have gone to state every year from 1st year peeWeeAA to second year bantanAA. I was there. I’ve got the video to prove it. The seniors filled a huge roll as sophomores when Koby Bender decided not to come back his senior year. Sorry to say, KarlEast. But CEC does have overwhelming talent.

The question going into this year by pretty much everybody wasn’t the lack of overwhelming talent. The question has been the ability of the new coaching regime and CEC’s overwhelming talent to come together. It’s going to take some time. I hope by section playoffs, CEC”s overwhelming talent and our new coaching staff figure it out. Coach Smalley and the boys are working really hard to getting to know each other. 4-3–1. We are pretty much .500 after Esse abruptly stepped down after 17 years.

Randolph abruptly steps down and the Duluth Marshall head coach comes over to coach the Hounds in the same scenario. Yep. Exactly.

Should be tied for 4th or close to it, one would think.

[MNHockeyFan]

Should be tied for 4th or close to it, one would think.

Not exactly what I would call "overwhelming".

[elliott70]

Should be tied for 4th or close to it, one would think.

Not exactly what I would call "overwhelming".

On either's part.

[ryguyMN]

Here's how I ranked the teams this week. Waters get really muddy in the bottom half of the top ten. Elk River gets credit for the win against EP and respectable showing against Edina. Wayzata gets credit for win over Cretin. Holy Family defeated Wayzata at the Turkey Trot, so I couldn't place Wayzata higher than the Fire at this point. Gave Holy Family slight edge over Elk River on strength of schedule.

1. Edina
2. Minnetonka
3. Duluth East
4. St. Thomas Academy
5. Centennial
6. Moorhead
7. White Bear Lake
8. Holy Family
9. Elk River
10. Wayzata

[karl(east)]

I guess my main motivating reason for keeping Cretin in the top 10 over Elk River was their margin of victory over EP. Sure, the Elks just got a nice win over them in OT, and maybe it means a little more since it wasn't the first game of the season, but CDH rolled over EP 6-3.

I'm not opposed to putting the Elks in the top ten at all, but the result that is doing most of that work seems to be a loss in which they gave up 10 goals. And while I watched that game and agree Edina is very very good, I'd also note that they have yet to play anyone in the top 8. I don't doubt that they're capable of blowing out those teams also, but I want to see some of those results come in (particularly those games with Tonka, and maybe STA in the Schwan Cup) before I'm convinced that a 3-goal loss is cause to be so impressed as to move them up in the rankings.