AA Rankings for 1/14/18

[karl(east)]

The joyous messiness continues. I’m out of commission tomorrow morning, so here are some very early (or very late?) rankings for this week.

1. Minnetonka (13-1-2)
-With a blowout win over Blaine and a hard-fought victory over Hermantown, the Skippers reclaim the top spot. They are 1-0-1 against St. Thomas, a more coherent team than Edina at the moment, and more consistent than East, which is enough to pull ahead of the pack at the top here. Just one game this week, but it has its share of intrigue against a wounded but clearly dangerous rival.
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Eden Prairie

2. St. Thomas Academy (11-1-1)
-The Cadets fired off a second one-goal win over Eden Prairie, which looks better after the Eagles’ win over Duluth East this past week. They’re now into the underbelly of their schedule, and should roll through their next five; if anyone can be competitive, it’s probably Tartan.
This week: Tues at Tartan, Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat vs. North St. Paul

3. Edina (14-1)
-Like Minnetonka, they had no trouble swatting aside Blaine. A couple of bubble teams await them before they dive into Lake play next week.
This week: Fri vs. Lakeville South, Sat at Hill-Murray

4. Duluth East (9-1-3)
-The Hounds suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of Eden Prairie. They continue to control play against most of their opposition, but a few shaky moments in back leave them with repeated rocky results against teams that others in their talent class are finishing off. That’s why they sink to the back of the top four for now, and frankly the gap between them and the likes of Holy Family is not large. A busy week awaits, with a makeup of last week’s snowed out Rapids contest and a couple of 8AA visitors, one of which suddenly looks like a pretty serious opponent.
This week: Mon at Grand Rapids, Fri vs. #9 Brainerd, Sat vs. Roseau

5. Holy Family (13-2-1)
-It wasn’t an awe-inspiring performance, but the Fire got the necessary win over Lakeville South. They have just one game again this week, and it comes against a surging Class A team that’s probably capable of making this one interesting if enough goes right.
This week: Thurs at Mound-Westonka

6. Cretin-Derham Hall (12-2-1)
-The Raiders keep plugging along, and matched White Bear Lake’s goal total in a win over Stillwater. This week’s grudge match with White Bear will likely settle the conference title, and will say something about this 6-10 portion of the rankings. Given their schedule, it’s almost a necessary one for staying in this range of the rankings.
This week: Thurs at Woodbury, Sat vs. #7 White Bear Lake

7. White Bear Lake (11-2-2)
-The Bears bounced back from their first two losses with three conference wins, including a valuable one over Stillwater for section seeding purposes. Cretin is their final regular season opponent currently in the top 20, and Forest Lake isn’t a pushover, either.
This week: Thurs vs. Forest Lake, Sat at #6 Cretin-Derham Hall

8. Centennial (9-3-3)
-The Cougars’ tie with Anoka throws 5AA for a loop, but they turned around and beat Elk River for a second time this season to restore some order. But with a few other teams dropping out in this area and that Brainerd win last week now looking that much more impressive, they continue to stand above the mess beneath. They could use a good result against Blaine this week, since those two tied the first time around, and then they hit a lake in St. Cloud to play a Moorhead team that is also in this borderline top ten section of the rankings.
This week: Thurs at Blaine, Sat vs. #12 Moorhead (Hockey Day)

9. Brainerd (10-4)
-It was statement week for the Warriors, as they turned around a five-goal loss in their December meeting with Moorhead and returned the favor to the Spuds. A narrow win over St. Cloud doesn’t scream secure top ten material, but it does suddenly give them a good shot at the top seed in the section. They’ll get another crack at a top-flight team this week when they visit Duluth East.
This week: Thurs at Fergus Falls, Fri at #4 Duluth East

10. Wayzata (8-6-1)
-The Trojans seem to be settling into a rhythm, with workmanlike wins over Hill and Delano. This isn’t a slam dunk ranking given some of their wacky results, but with wins over Cretin, Moorhead, and Cloquet, they’ve certainly proven they can handle teams in this part of the rankings when they’re on. Two borderline top 15 teams give them a chance to either cement this top ten position or regress into the pack.
This week: Fri vs. Duluth Marshall, Sat at #15 Eden Prairie

11. Elk River (11-5)
-A second loss to Centennial puts an end to the Elks’ five-game winning streak. We’ll see if they can handle Andover for a second time in three weeks, and they also have a shot to avenge what now looks like a poor loss to Maple Grove.
This week: Thurs at Maple Grove, Sat at #13 Andover

12. Moorhead (11-6)
-Is it time to hit the panic button for the Spuds? A blowout loss to Brainerd means 8AA is no sure thing, though they bounced back and took out their frustration on Breck. All six losses are to currently ranked teams, but they seem snakebitten against quality opponents. This week’s Northwest Suburban slate of competition is especially interesting, as they face two teams right by them in the rankings that haven’t been entirely consistent, either.
This week: Mon vs. #13 Andover, Sat at #8 Centennial (Hockey Day)

13. Andover (11-3)
-The Huskies continued their strong run of recent play with a shutout of Maple Grove. This week, we’ll get a sense of how real this is, as they take on a preseason favorite and a section rival that handled them just two weeks ago.
This week: Mon at #12 Moorhead, Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat vs. #11 Elk River

14. Cloquet (11-5-1)
-The Lumberjacks had one of their better weeks of the year, as they took down Marshall in a mild upset and also pulled out a win in Eden Prairie. Time will tell if they’re turning a corner or just exhibiting more inconsistency. On paper the next couple weeks are pretty friendly, so we’ll see if they can take care of business and further cement a ranked position.
This week: Tues vs. Grand Rapids, Fri vs. Roseau

15. Eden Prairie (6-8-1)
-The loss to Cloquet was a blow, but the bounceback win over Duluth East saves their top 15 status for now, despite the record. The Eagles have the skill to do some damage and play a tough style when they’re on their game, but they need to find that consistently, and hold tight in their own end. They launch straight into the teeth of the Lake schedule this week. We’ll see if they hand a second straight game against a top-ranked team.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. #10 Wayzata

The Next Ten

Duluth Marshall (10-5-1)
-The Hilltoppers had a poor week, as they fell to Cloquet and Champlin Park. The former is understandable but not great for section purposes, while the latter is a more significant red flag, and sends them tumbling out of a crowded top 15. Brainerd is their only real high quality win at this point. The Wayzata game this week should be interesting, and Blake isn’t a free pass, either.

Eastview (12-3)
-The Lightning got a decent win against Lakeville South, and has now won eight straight. An important conference game with Rosemount looms this week, and they don’t face anyone outside the South Suburban the rest of the way.

Rosemount (12-2)
-After a good win over Lakeville North, the Irish deserve a little more credit here. They’re starting to take care of some of the better teams in the South Suburban. With zero top 15 teams on their schedule all season it’s hard to know what their ceiling is, but a rematch on Saturday with an Eastview team that beat them 5-1 in December will be their biggest test, and a win could well vault them into the top 15.

Lakeville South (7-6-1)
-The Cougars lost twice this past week, but both were one-goal games to higher-ranked teams, so that won’t hurt them here. The overtime showing against Holy Family is actually a good sign for a group trying to prove it can hang with the more skilled teams in the state. They’ve got a big week ahead of them, as the first of the two Lakeville battles falls on Tuesday, and we’ll see what they can do with Edina, too.

Hill-Murray (5-6-4)
-The Pioneers continue to spin their wheels, as two-goal losses to Wayzata and a Mahtomedi team they’d tied the first time around set them back. We’ll see what, if anything, they can muster against the Hornets this week.

St. Cloud (11-3)
-There isn’t much shame in a one-goal loss to Brainerd right now, and this club also avenged one of its three losses when it pulled one out against Minneapolis this past week. This week’s game with St. Michael-Albertville could well decide the 3-seed in 8AA, and they’ve got rival Cathedral on the docket on a lake, too.

St. Louis Park (8-5-2)
-A big win over Chaska helps the Orioles’ case, and the tie with Blake, while not helpful in sorting out the 6AA mess, doesn’t hurt much, either. Chanhassen and Jefferson are up this week; they’re ranked ahead of everyone left on their schedule, with Chaska and Benilde likely offering the biggest tests.

Lakeville North (5-7-1)
-Fell to Rosemount, and the mixed results go on for the Panthers. The all-important South game is up next.

St. Michael-Albertville (9-4)
-The Knights continue to beat teams they should beat, but drop a little as I accommodate others who have been doing well. They’ve got a big week ahead, with 8AA foe St. Cloud and Hermantown looming.

Chaska (9-6)
-Even with players out, the 7-1 loss to Park wasn’t pretty. They should rebound with wins over Lourdes and Kennedy this week, and they’ll have a chance to show a little more over the remainder of the season with the Park rematch, Benilde, and a game with Orono left on the schedule.

And now, a rather meaty tour of the sections.

1AA
19 Lakeville South
23 Lakeville North
Rochester Century
Farmington
-South’s recent run of good play against some quality opponents has me leaning toward them atop the section, but we’ll get a much better idea of how the Lakevilles match up when they meet for the first time this week. The real source of intrigue here now is Rochester Century, whose win over White Bear is as impressive as anything this section has done this season, and the Panthers have a strong record too, albeit against a weak schedule that also includes losses to the likes of Irondale and Hayward, WI. They have some at least some case for a top-2 seed now, and if they can follow their formula against White Bear, they could disrupt the duopoly atop this section.

2AA
1 Minnetonka
5 Holy Family
Prior Lake
15 Eden Prairie
25 Chaska
-The top two have clearly separated themselves, and it would take a rough Lake run to drop Minnetonka from the top. After that, Prior Lake, despite a sub-.500 record, has wins over the other two mid-level contenders, so the 3-seed is its to lose. That leaves Eden Prairie and Chaska fighting for home ice, and while I’d think the Eagles are safe there, a rough enough record in Lake play could tip some votes toward the Hawks. On the other hand, Eden Prairie could perhaps rescue a 3-seed if they roll up some wins against higher-ranked competition.

3AA
2 St. Thomas Academy
17 Eastview
18 Rosemount
Eagan
-A collection of three South Suburban teams has emerged behind St. Thomas in the race for the 2-4 seeds. Head-to-head isn’t helpful in sorting them out, as Eastview beat Rosemount who beat Eagan who beat Eastview, so they’re just in ranking order for now. But, we have a second round of conference games between those three to help settle things, including both games involving Eastview in the next two weeks. Given their better overall record, the Lightning could probably wrap up the 2-seed with wins in both of those.

4AA
7 White Bear Lake
20 Hill-Murray
Tartan
Stillwater
-White Bear’s win over Stillwater should just about cinch the top seed, and with the Ponies losing 6 of their last 7 (including to East Ridge), it gets messy beyond the top two. Tartan, with a 5-2 win over Irondale and a strong record, slots in at #3 for now. I’m still giving Stillwater the nudge over Irondale right now given their schedule, but that could flip if it continues to struggle. Even Hill may not be safe as #2 if it doesn’t produce a stronger record over the next few weeks.

5AA
8 Centennial
Maple Grove
Blaine
Anoka
-This section, frankly, has gone down the toilet in the month of January. Anoka, with a win over Blaine and a tie with Centennial, is suddenly a legitimate contender with its three wins; Champlin Park seems to be within striking distance, too. The Cougars have done enough overall that the top seed is pretty safe. Beyond that, well, what a disaster. Blaine is incoherent, with a tie to Centennial and a win over Maple Grove, but a loss to Anoka. I’m putting Maple Grove third despite the Blaine loss because they’ve actually beaten teams they should beat, while Anoka needs to prove a little more beyond those two good section results. Thankfully, there are a lot more games in this one to make some sense of this junk.

6AA
3 Edina
6 Cretin-Derham Hall
10 Wayzata
22 St. Louis Park
-There’s been so much craziness here that my instinct is to just go in ranking order. Cretin’s overall record is good enough to make up for the Wayzata loss at this point, as is Wayzata’s compared to Park and Blake. Park has tied both Blake and Benilde, who both loom just outside the top 25, and its second meeting with Benilde will play a big role in settling those mid-level seeds.

7AA
4 Duluth East
11 Elk River
13 Andover
14 Cloquet
16 Duluth Marshall
-Nothing is getting simpler in the middle tier of this section, with Cloquet climbing back into the top-4 seeding picture, and Marshall suddenly falling away from it. QRF remains a strong Andover fan, but the Huskies are heading into a more difficult stretch over the next two weeks that could make or break them. I still think the Elks are the second-most complete team here, and a second win over Andover this week could help show that. Marshall has Andover a week from this coming Saturday too, for whatever it’s worth with QRF.

8AA
9 Brainerd
12 Moorhead
21 St. Cloud
24 St. Michael-Albertville
-This one has suddenly become interesting, with Moorhead crumbling and Brainerd surging. St. Cloud is quietly putting together a very good year, and will fight it out with STMA for the 3-seed this week. Bemidji and Roseau lurk beyond that if anyone stumbles down the stretch.

[goldy313]

I think you undervalue Rosemount, Rochester Century, and Tartan. Tartan had a better result against Mahtomedi than Hill Murray did. Rosemount is in the toughest conference, top to bottom, in the state and is on top so far. The Suburban East is awful, WBL lost to Century, Eastridge lost to Owatonna. When your top teams are getting beat by Big Nine teams in hockey you have issues.

My bet is you have a few teams clear of the next 30 or 40; Edina, Minnetonka, St Thomas, and Holy Family. After that it is a crap shoot down to team 30 or 40.

In 1AA Rochester Century has the #1 seed to lose, and one loss may be enough to lose it, aside from maybe SSP I think they run the table....with this caveat....they only have 2 goalies in total, an injury or illness to either would cripple them. And nearly everyone in 1AA would like to see the Lakeville schools play each other in the semifinals rather than the finals for once.

[mnmouth]

. . . My bet is you have a few teams clear of the next 30 or 40; Edina, Minnetonka, St Thomas, and Holy Family. After that it is a crap shoot down to team 30 or 40 . . .

One must include East among those 4 you mentioned. Too much overall talent to dismiss in mid-January, their victory at Minnetonka was well-earned and because they pretty much outshoot everyone they will be a force in every game they play - even with their maddening, structural inconsistency. A state title is just as much within their reach as it is within Edina's, Tonka's, etc., especially from a mid-January perspective.

[east hockey]

Rosemount's W/L record is only impressive until you consider who they've played. They haven't defeated anyone ranked higher than 15 in PageStat, and their overall SOS is 39th. They're a good team deserving of probably a #3 seed in their section, and that is all. If they can win two of three against upcoming opponents North, South and Eastview, then maybe we can talk about them being a Top 25 team.

Lee

[TheMNhockey1]

I think you undervalue Rosemount, Rochester Century, and Tartan. Tartan had a better result against Mahtomedi than Hill Murray did.

I don't think you should throw Tartan up there. Their best result is an Anoka win i guess and if going to overtime against Mahtomedi is such a big accomplishment then surely going to overtime the next game against a 2 win Hastings team must be a detriment to them right?

If they have a decent result against St. Thomas then sure it would make sense to put them somewhere in the top 25 but until then man chillax

[WestMetro]

Thanks for analysis Lee!

Coincidentally had planned next Saturday to go see Rosemount at Eastview.
Continuing on my quest to see all of Karl’s top 20.

[green4]

I think you undervalue Rosemount, Rochester Century, and Tartan. Tartan had a better result against Mahtomedi than Hill Murray did. Rosemount is in the toughest conference, top to bottom, in the state and is on top so far. The Suburban East is awful, WBL lost to Century, Eastridge lost to Owatonna. When your top teams are getting beat by Big Nine teams in hockey you have issues.

My bet is you have a few teams clear of the next 30 or 40; Edina, Minnetonka, St Thomas, and Holy Family. After that it is a crap shoot down to team 30 or 40.

In 1AA Rochester Century has the #1 seed to lose, and one loss may be enough to lose it, aside from maybe SSP I think they run the table....with this caveat....they only have 2 goalies in total, an injury or illness to either would cripple them. And nearly everyone in 1AA would like to see the Lakeville schools play each other in the semifinals rather than the finals for once.

I think it is a bit funny how you say he undervalues Rochester Century but then go and rip Century by discrediting their White Bear win, contemplate if they can beat a not great South St. Paul and make fun of teams that loses to a big nine school.

P.S
The South Suburban is not the best conference in the state, that still belongs to the Lake Conference. Tonka, Edina and Wayzata are all better than any team in the South Suburban.

[LASERBLUE135]

Parity! I’m just excited this year is starting to shape into a “Anyone has a chance” type year. Unlike other years where 1 section might have #1,2,and 5 this year is looking like one of the most equal in a long time. If the current rankings hold for state (they won’t of course) you’d have:
1,2,3,4, 7,8,9, and Lakeville (who often finds a way to test great teams in St Paul).
If I was betting I’d put money on Edina, but at the X the favorite rarely hoists the trophy. Looking like a great year at the tourney!!!