AA Rankings for 2/4/18

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 2/4/18

Post by karl(east) »

Just two weeks left in the regular season now. More movement near the top this week, though nothing at the top. On paper the week ahead is a fairly thin one for big games, though I think we know by now that this doesn't make anything predictable. Your rankings:

1. Edina (21-1)
-A couple of tough defensive teams kept the Hornets’ goal total down in their first two games this past week, though they certainly made up for that against Hopkins. Centennial in particular pushed them to the brink, which shows how things can tighten up down the stretch here. The Hornets got the necessary wins, though, and maintain the top spot. Just one game this week, but it’s the rubber match with the one team that has beaten them—and a possible preview of a fourth meeting in March.
This week: Sat at #3 Minnetonka

2. Duluth East (18-1-3)
-The Hounds logged three straight shutouts and blasted past section rival Elk River this past week, and seem to be building up a head of steam as they head toward sections. They have a chance to avenge one of their early ties against an unpredictable rival this week, plus a decent Lakeville South team, too.
This week: Mon vs. Cloquet, Thurs vs. Lakeville South

3. Minnetonka (17-2-2)
-The Skippers got pushed a bit by both Benilde and Eden Prairie, but pulled away in the third period of both games and put up seven goals in both. Edina debacle aside, they’ve been scoring goals in bunches lately, though they’ve also bled a fair amount, too. Josh Luedtke’s return to the lineup on Saturday may help in that regard. After another opportunity to pile up the goals on Thursday, they get their shot at revenge for that ugly showing at Braemar two weeks ago.
This week: Thurs at Hopkins, Sat vs. #1 Edina

4. St. Thomas Academy (18-2-1)
-The week started out well for the Cadets, as they took home a big, hard-fought win over Cretin and finished off Hill for a second time, but they then suffered their first loss since November in a trap game at Duluth Marshall. Mahtomedi could give them a test this week as they wrap up their conference schedule.
This week: Tues at Mahtomedi, Sat at Henry Sibley

5. Cretin-Derham Hall (18-3-1)
-The Raiders put up a decent showing against St. Thomas but lost, and therefore don’t drop; they again showed that they are very good, but on the outside looking in of the top group in the state. It’s all conference play from here on out, with Stillwater being the most interesting of the bunch left.
This week: Thurs vs. Roseville, Sat at Stillwater

6. Holy Family (16-3-1)
-The Fire restored some order after last week’s Cretin debacle with a couple of tight wins over respectable opponents. The week ahead features an Orono team that tied them the first time around and a game with Prior Lake that, while unlikely to affect seeding, could give us some insight into the 2AA playoffs.
This week: Mon vs. Orono, Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. New Prague

7. White Bear Lake (15-3-2)
-The Bears beat Stillwater 4-1 in their only action last week, and continue to march along. They make a road trip north this week, and should win both.
This week: Fri at Hibbing, Sat at Grand Rapids

8. Moorhead (17-6)
-The Spuds clipped on past a couple of middling opponents, and now have a week to rest up before the final push. They’ve given up just four goals in seven games since the lopsided Brainerd loss, so they appear to be locking down on their early season weakness.
This week: Idle

9. Brainerd (16-5)
-The Warriors continue to take care of business, with a win at Roseau further securing their position toward the top of 8AA. They stick with central Minnesota opponents the rest of the way, with Alexandria this week perhaps offering some competition.
This week: Mon vs. Alexandria, Thurs at River Lakes

10. Wayzata (12-8-1)
-The Trojans did a respectable job of hanging in against Edina, but never really threatened to win the game, either. At the very least, it shows something might be possible in sections. They’ll look to clean up on the easier Lake teams this week before heading back into the ringer against the big two in the final week of the season.
This week: Thurs vs. Eden Prairie, Sat vs. Hopkins

11. Andover (16-5)
-A loss to Maple Grove interrupts the quality run the Huskies had been on since early January. They did beat again Centennial earlier in the week, so I’m not going to read too much into that. Tight, low-scoring games seem to be the norm here. They should roll this week.
This week: Thurs at Armstrong/Cooper, Sat at Totino-Grace

12. Centennial (12-6-3)
-The Cougars gave Edina a good run and lost to Andover again, which doesn’t boost their standing here, but doesn’t hurt them a lot, either. On paper they shouldn’t be troubled too much in their final four games.
This week: Thurs at Irondale, Sat at Champlin Park

13. Eastview (17-4)
-The Lightning was back at its winning ways in conference games this past week. Lakeville South, whom they beat by a goal the first time around, will offer the stiffest test of the games left on the schedule.
This week: Tues at Shakopee, Sat vs. Lakeville South

14. Duluth Marshall (14-7-2)
-The Hilltoppers joined the club in the confusing results category this past week, as they stumbled to a tie with Hibbing but bounced back with a big win over St. Thomas Academy. They’ve shown some good flashes of danger against quality opponents, and as long as their lower lines can keep other teams’ lower lines off the board, they have a chance to break through. They play just one game in each of their last two weeks, and should win both, though as we’ve seen, losses do happen here.
This week: Sat vs. Hill-Murray

15. Elk River (14-7)
-The Elks got a solid win over Blaine, but a humbling loss to Duluth East wasn’t exactly the result they were looking for in an important section bellwether. They seem to get exposed against deeper opponents. It’s back to conference play now.
This week: Wed vs. Osseo, Sat at Irondale

The Next Ten

Cloquet (15-6-1)
-Predictability continues to elude the Lumberjacks, as they dropped a 1-0 decision to Forest Lake, but beat Hermantown for the first time in seven seasons. They have their chance to back up that December tie in a section battle with Duluth East on Monday, which will likely be their last serious test before sections.

Lakeville North (10-9-1)
-The Panthers have been playing pretty well lately, with wins over Eastview and Eagan in conference play over the past two weeks; they put up a respectable effort in a loss to Holy Family, too. They could yet be a problem for someone in the first round of the State Tournament, if they get that far. Farmington and Shakopee await this week.

Rosemount (16-4)
-The Irish drop a little following a loss to Lakeville South. They can lock up the 3-seed with a win over Eagan on Saturday, though they may get it even if they drop that one, seeing as Eagan has a loss to Burnsville.

St. Louis Park (13-6-2)
-The Orioles suffered a narrow loss to Chaska, but cruised against their other two opponents; given their overall body of work, they don’t drop here. Chanhassen and Bloomington Jefferson are up this week.

Eagan (13-7-1)
-A tie with Lakeville South and a narrow loss to Lakeville North keep the Wildcats from making any progress up the bubble team list. Any path they have to a 3-seed and avoiding St. Thomas in the quarters requires a win over Rosemount this coming week.

Lakeville South (11-8-2)
-The Cougars notched a couple of 2-1 wins this past week, including a positive win over Rosemount, and also fought Eagan to a draw. They have a tough week of easts ahead of them, as they visit Duluth East and Eastview.

Chaska (13-7)
-A 5-1 loss to Benilde raises some questions for the Hawks, who otherwise got a nice bounceback win in an outdoor game against St. Louis Park and rolled past Minneapolis. A three-game week ahead of them features Bloomington Jefferson and rival Chanhassen.

Eden Prairie (8-12-1)
-The Eagles are still here, plodding along. Staying competitive with top teams usually isn’t an issue, but they tend to fade toward the end of things. They get a second crack at Wayzata this week, and will also pay a visit to their good friends at Benilde.

Hill-Murray (8-9-4)
-The Pioneers’ recent improvements didn’t really show up in the St. Thomas loss. With Tartan and Duluth Marshall coming up this week, we’ll get a sense of whether they still deserve to be mentioned here or not. The Tartan game will likely decide the 2-seed in 4AA.

St. Michael-Albertville (15-5)
-The Knights had a successful week cleaning up on some of the top teams in 5A. Their game with Maple Grove this week gives a rare chance to measure them against a good-but-not-great Metro squad, and they also have rival Buffalo, who gave them a 1-goal game the first time around.
inthetwine
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Post by inthetwine »

Karl, in 4AA, I think Stillwater has just as god o of a shot at the 2nd seed as Hill does. Thoughts?
WestMetro
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Post by WestMetro »

Nice job as usual, and everything makes sense to me.

Consistent with start of the seasons thinking, Hounds and Hornets will battle it out.
ryguyMN
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Post by ryguyMN »

I got the same top ten teams as Karl, but swapped HF and WBL positions. Finally seeing some clarity with that part of the rankings. I’ll let others sort out the teams beyond #10...LOL.
Ryan
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karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) »

inthetwine wrote:Karl, in 4AA, I think Stillwater has just as god o of a shot at the 2nd seed as Hill does. Thoughts?
I suppose this is also possible, but they have an in-section loss to Roseville, which I'm guessing will drop them a couple of spots. And while their record is better, their schedule is also easier, so I'm not sure they have a strong case for anything higher than #4. But, like you said, possible. This section is wide open after White Bear at #1.
inthetwine
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Post by inthetwine »

karl(east) wrote:
inthetwine wrote:Karl, in 4AA, I think Stillwater has just as god o of a shot at the 2nd seed as Hill does. Thoughts?
I suppose this is also possible, but they have an in-section loss to Roseville, which I'm guessing will drop them a couple of spots. And while their record is better, their schedule is also easier, so I'm not sure they have a strong case for anything higher than #4. But, like you said, possible. This section is wide open after White Bear at #1.
Thanks Karl, I just got home from the Hill/Tartan game. Neither team looked very impressive, but Hill definitly had the edge. I've seen Stillwater play White Bear twice this year, and think they at better than Hill or Tartan. But you are right, 2 thru 4 is a toss up.
hockey59
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Post by hockey59 »

Tonka 5 (en) Edina 3 FINAL. Despite DK & Vorlicky not playing this afternoon...the best game I’ve seen all year. #1 STAR of game was the Tonka goalie Glockner! 👍 But it was a team win! Who knows, maybe they meet for a 4th time at Xcel for all the marbles! 🤺😎
mulefarm
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Post by mulefarm »

hockey59 wrote:Tonka 5 (en) Edina 3 FINAL. Despite DK & Vorlicky not playing this afternoon...the best game I’ve seen all year. #1 STAR of game was the Tonka goalie Glockner! 👍 But it was a team win! Who knows, maybe they meet for a 4th time at Xcel for all the marbles! 🤺😎
Wouldn't be surprised. If Tonka, DE, Edina and STA make it, what would be the ranking?
TheNightman
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Post by TheNightman »

hockey59 wrote:Tonka 5 (en) Edina 3 FINAL. Despite DK & Vorlicky not playing this afternoon...the best game I’ve seen all year. #1 STAR of game was the Tonka goalie Glockner! 👍 But it was a team win! Who knows, maybe they meet for a 4th time at Xcel for all the marbles! 🤺😎
Where were those two?
Usthockey13
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Post by Usthockey13 »

mulefarm wrote:
hockey59 wrote:Tonka 5 (en) Edina 3 FINAL. Despite DK & Vorlicky not playing this afternoon...the best game I’ve seen all year. #1 STAR of game was the Tonka goalie Glockner! 👍 But it was a team win! Who knows, maybe they meet for a 4th time at Xcel for all the marbles! 🤺😎
Wouldn't be surprised. If Tonka, DE, Edina and STA make it, what would be the ranking?
I’d guess Tonka/Edina/DE/STA In they order now that Tonka has beaten Edina 2x’s.
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