AA Rankings for 2/18/18 and Section Preview

[karl(east)]

We’ve made it to playoff hockey. As usual, my format for this week has me just listing the top 25, then walking through each section, where teams are listed in the order in which they are seeded. All teams that are ranked or seeded 1-3 get some comments, both on their recent performance and on how they look heading into sections.

1. Minnetonka
2. Edina
3. St. Thomas Academy
4. Duluth East
5. Cretin-Derham Hall
6. Holy Family
7. White Bear Lake
8. Andover
9. Moorhead
10. Centennial
11. Wayzata
12. Eastview
13. Brainerd
14. Duluth Marshall
15. Elk River
16. Rosemount
17. Lakeville North
18. Cloquet
19. St. Michael-Albertville
20. Hill-Murray
21. Lakeville South
22. Eden Prairie
23. Chaska
24. St. Cloud
25. Benilde-St. Margaret’s

1AA
1st Rd 2/20 High Seed Home
QF 2/22 High Seed Home
SF 2/24 Rochester Rec Center
F 3/1 Rochester Rec Center

1. Lakeville North (13-10-2, #17)
-A second firm win over South has the Panthers looking pretty good atop this section. They’re not an elite team, but with a solid defense they can usually stick around against top teams, and have some upset potential if they make it through to St. Paul.
2. Rochester Century (20-4-1)
-The Panthers are the mystery team here: they rolled through most of their opponents and beat White Bear, though there are enough dodgy results on the schedule to make me a skeptic that they’ll beat South in the semi.
3. Lakeville South (12-11-2, #21)
-The Cougars’ second loss to North relegates them to the 3-seed, though I don’t see much in the way of a clash with Century in the semis. With their defensive style they have some chance of repeating, but that will require them to find another level.
4. Owatonna
5. Farmington
6. Rochester Mayo
7. Rochester John Marshall
8. Hastings
9. Dodge County

2AA
QF 2/22 High Seed Home
SF 2/24 Braemar Arena
F 2/28 Mariucci

1. Minnetonka (21-2-2, #1)
-The Skippers wrapped up a share of the Lake title with a second win over Wayzata, and head into the playoffs as the tentative #1. They’ve got excellent forward depth, the Josh Luedtke-reinforced defense can move the puck as well as anyone, and Charlie Glockner has been strong in goal. This isn’t an easy section to escape, but this group has two classes that won it all as Bantams, and now have their shot to do it at the high school level.
2. Holy Family (21-3-1, #6)
The Fire finished with respectable wins over St. Cloud Cathedral and Stillwater, and is the benefactor of Prior Lake’s early-season wins over Eden Prairie and Chaska, which lifted the Lakers to the 3-seed. They should march through to Mariucci, setting a potential huge clash with Minnetonka.
3. Prior Lake (10-15)
-Not much to say here other than that winning those section game sure does help.
4. Eden Prairie (10-14-1, #22)
-As was their wont down the stretch, the Eagles hung in there reasonably well against a top teams but couldn’t find a way to win. They remain a dangerous team for rival Minnetonka, but have to get by an interesting Chaska group first.
5. Chaska (17-8, #23)
-The Hawks have the top-end talent to give Eden Prairie an interesting game, but they are new to this stage, and a regular season-ending loss to Orono underscores their vulnerability. If they win that first one, they did a decent job of sticking around with Minnetonka back in December.
6. New Prague
7. Chanhassen
8. Shakopee

3AA
1st Rd 2/20 High Seed Home
QF 2/22 High Seed Home
SF 2/24 Veterans Memorial
F 3/1 Braemar

1. St. Thomas Academy (22-2-1, #3)
-The Cadets looked very good in their final week, as they took apart Stillwater and shut out a decent Lakeville North team to close things out. As usual, they have an explosive offense, and Marshall hiccup aside, they’ve been great defensively against other good teams lately. If they can avoid some of the looseness that has plagued them in past playoff runs—and they have the pieces to do that—they should roll through this section.
2. Eastview (21-4, #12)
-The Lightning enters the playoffs on a tear, and certainly proved itself the class of the South Suburban. This group lost 5-1 to St. Thomas in December, so an upset may be a long shot, but it isn’t out of the question, either. First they’ll likely have to get by a tough Rosemount team, though they did handle them 5-1 and 3-0 in the regular season. Their first round draw, Jefferson, did give them a one-goal game back in November, and ended their season a year ago.
3. Rosemount (20-4-1, #16)
-The Irish completed a very strong regular season. While they aren’t as tested against top competition as many of the teams ranked ahead of them, including likely semifinal opponent Eastview, they do have the goalie to steal a game in Frank Brimsek finalist Ben Garrity, and have some respectable offensive punch, too. First up: Apple Valley.
4. Burnsville
5. Eagan
6. Apple Valley
7. Bloomington Jefferson
8. Park (Cottage Grove)
9. East Ridge

4AA
1st Rd 2/20 Aldrich
QF 2/24 Aldrich
SF 2/27 and 2/28 Aldrich
F 3/2 Aldrich

1. White Bear Lake (20-3-2, #7)
-The Bears needed a late comeback to escape against Blaine, but escape they did. This group is clearly the class of 4AA, and has proven it can hang with the state’s elite this season, but there are going to be questions about this program in the playoffs until they prove otherwise, even in the earlier rounds before a potential battle with Hill. This is their golden chance.
2. Hill-Murray (10-11-4, #20)
-Objects in the rear view mirror may be closer than they appear: despite a rare losing season, the Pioneers, thanks in no small part to the offensive output of Nick Pierre, are looking dangerous down the stretch. A win over Moorhead gave that run some meat, and if they make their way back to the final, they’ll be a tempting upset pick when they collide with their longtime rivals the Bears.
3. Stillwater (12-12-1)
-A week after putting up some quality results, the Ponies didn’t hang with two top teams and threw in a loss to East Ridge for good measure. They’re probably capable of beating Hill, but need to get there first.
4. Tartan
5. Mounds View
6. North St. Paul
7. Irondale
8. Roseville
9. Woodbury

5AA
QF 2/22 Coon Rapids/Champlin
SF 2/24 Champlin
F 3/1 Aldrich

1. Centennial (16-6-3, #10)
-The Cougars took care of their weaker conference opponents to wrap up the season. They are the obvious favorites in a thin section, and have the solid defense and elite goal-scorer in Lucas McGregor to give a top team a decent fight in a State quarterfinal, too. Still, 5AA has produced its share of head-scratching results over the years, and sections that lack truly elite teams, as this one usually does, often lend themselves to upsets.
2. Maple Grove (10-11-3)
-While it wasn’t a banner season for the Crimson, this team is the second-best in the section, and has a strong defensive corps and one of the state’s better goalies. A repeat is well within the realm of possibility here.
3. Blaine (9-13-3)
-The Bengals gave White Bear Lake a good push, reminding everyone that they may not be an easy out in 5AA. They have a couple of top players who could turn a section game.
4. Champlin Park
5. Anoka
6. Spring Lake Park
7. Osseo
8. Coon Rapids

6AA
1st Rd 2/20 High Seed Home
QF 2/22 High Seed Home
SF 2/24 Bloomington Ice Garden
F 2/28 Mariucci

1. Edina (23-2, #2)
-The Hornets held off a decent effort from Eden Prairie and shut down Wayzata to record the highest number of wins in a regular season they’ve ever had. (They played fewer games back in the early 70s, of course.) The Hornets’ firepower on their top two lines is unmatched, and their defense and goaltending has improved some—though it remains the place where they can be beaten. They’re primed for a return to State after a two-year hiatus.
2. Cretin-Derham Hall (20-3-2, #5)
-The Raiders took care of Park in their last game of the season. They’re a dynamic, up-tempo team that can skate with anyone, and if we get the expected semifinal here, it’ll be an excellent clash of styles to decide who gets to take a crack at Edina at Mariucci.
3. Wayzata (14-10-1, #11)
-The Trojans couldn’t really stick with either Minnetonka or Wayzata in those last two meetings. Recent history suggests they could still pose a danger to the Hornets if they get past Cretin, but this group isn’t quite as rock-solid in back as their past few. They also lost to quarterfinal opponent Blake during the regular season. Is there another run in the tank here?
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (12-11-2, #25)
-Jefferson tie aside, Red Knights quietly had a fairly good close to the season, with competitive games against Minnetonka and Eden Prairie and a win over St. Louis Park that helped both in the bottom end of the rankings and in the seeding. They face those Orioles yet again in the opening round.
5. St. Louis Park
6. Blake
7. Holy Angels
8. Armstrong/Cooper
9. Hopkins

7AA
1st Rd – Grand Rapids def. Cambridge 9-2
QF 2/20 High Seed Home
SF 2/24 Amsoil
F 3/1 Amsoil

1. Duluth East (20-2-3, #4)
-The Hounds took care of business against Maple Grove, and while they head into the 7AA playoffs as the obvious frontrunner, they face a 3-game minefield unlike any other top team, beginning with an interesting little test in a rematch of the past two section finals. With their depth across the board they can control a game against anyone in this section, but need to turn chances into goals and get their top line rolling to return to St. Paul.
2. Andover (20-5, #8)
-The Huskies sailed smoothly through their final games to finish their best regular season to date. With a strong top line, good goaltending, and good energy, they have a fighting shot in what became the southern side of the 7AA bracket. Time to see how a relative newcomer to the big stage handles the pressure.
3. Elk River (18-7, #15)
-The Elks got a respectable win over Hill-Murray in the season’s final week, and have a top line that can do some damage. If they can get through the Forest Lake Trap Game, they’ll face a conference rival with whom they split two games during the regular season on Semifinal Saturday at Amsoil, which is a somewhat more pleasant fate than they’ve faced in other recent semis. Can they ever break the curse?
4. Cloquet (17-7-1. #18)
-The Lumberjacks ended their regular season with a head-scratching loss to Grand Rapids, and it costs them a 3-seed and leaves them hosting Marshall in the quarterfinals for a third straight season. They’re deeper than the higher-ranked Hilltoppers, whom they beat in the regular season, and their pack-it-in style has been effective against East, so they have a chance of going on a run here. But they’ve also proven equally capable of laying an egg at any given time.
5. Duluth Marshall (16-7-2, #14)
-The Hilltoppers put away Greenway to wrap up their regular season on a positive note. Given their strong defense and ability to play within themselves, I trust this team to deliver a bit more than the two teams seeded immediately ahead of them; they’ll just need their big guns to score enough to take a legitimate crack at a Tourney berth.
6. Forest Lake
7. St. Francis
8. Grand Rapids
9. Cambridge-Isanti (eliminated)

8AA
QF 2/20 High Seed Home
SF 2/24 High Seed Home
F 2/28 Thief River/St. Cloud/Bemidji

1. Moorhead (18-7, #9)
-A season-closing loss to Hill shows this team hasn’t yet overcome its ability to throw out some clunkers and struggle to score. It was also the first time they’d given up more than two goals in a game since the Brainerd loss, as they did seem to tighten up defensively down the stretch. With their top-end talent they remain the team to beat in this section, but there are no guarantees for the defending runners-up.
2. St. Michael-Albertville (20-5, #19)
-The Knights ended their regular season on a 9-game winning streak, and a win over Brainerd was an eye-opener that has them the surprise 2-seed here. They lost 5-0 to Moorhead in their regular season meeting, so the way through will not be easy, but this team is trending in the right direction at the right time.
3. Brainerd (19-6, #13)
-A 4-1 loss to St. Michael throws the Warriors’ playoff run for a loop, as they drop to the 3-seed and fall out of the overall top 10. That win over Moorhead was doing a lot of work in that ranking, and they will likely have to go on the road in the semis, assuming they get past Bemidji. They certainly have the depth and the physicality to make a run here.
4. St. Cloud (18-7, #24)
-St. Cloud had a strong season but faces a tough road through 8AA, beginning with a Roseau team that should give them a good fight in the first round.
5. Roseau
6. Bemidji
7. Buffalo
8. Rogers

I'll do a quick re-rank next weekend of remaining teams to help sort out State seeding, but beyond that, my work here is done. Let the fun begin...

[nahc]

Karl, as usual, another great job!!!! And so it begins!!!

[nahc]

If anyone has AA semifinal tickets they need to get rid of, please let me know!

[nahc]

Meant State AA Semi's..........

[WestMetro]

Karl, your final 3/4 rankings are flipped vs final LPH

This has big significance at the X

If all favorites get to the X, and if LPH is used for seeding:

Afternoon

Edina vs Centennial
Deast vs Moorhead

Evening:

Tonka vs Lakeville
STA vs WBL

[northwoods oldtimer]

Karl, your final 3/4 rankings are flipped vs final LPH

This has big significance at the X

If all favorites get to the X, and if LPH is used for seeding:

Afternoon

Edina vs Centennial
Deast vs Moorhead

Evening:

Tonka vs Lakeville
STA vs WBL

LPH well there's a credible source for rankings.

Of course it will be East verse Moorhead

[karl(east)]

Karl, your final 3/4 rankings are flipped vs final LPH

This has big significance at the X

If all favorites get to the X, and if LPH is used for seeding:

Afternoon

Edina vs Centennial
Deast vs Moorhead

Evening:

Tonka vs Lakeville
STA vs WBL

LPH well there's a credible source for rankings.

Of course it will be East verse Moorhead

Let's hope not...

On paper, a team might actually prefer the 4-seed to the 3-seed. Stay on the opposite side of the bracket from Edina and, if all the top seeds go through, you get a quarterfinal against White Bear Lake, and we all know what that means.

[WestMetro]

My Thoughts exactly, but haven’t they been following LPH pretty closely in recent years?

[BP]

The coaches get on a conference call and all seed the tournament by voting. LPH doesn't seed the tournament.

[WestMetro]

Correct, But they’ve been following LPH pretty closely in recent years I think?

[marchmadness]

Karl, your final 3/4 rankings are flipped vs final LPH

This has big significance at the X

If all favorites get to the X, and if LPH is used for seeding:

Afternoon

Edina vs Centennial
Deast vs Moorhead

Evening:

Tonka vs Lakeville
STA vs WBL

Are the non top 5 still randomly drawn?

[WestMetro]

“PROJECTED PAIRINGS: Boys' Class AA/A: A seeding meeting to determine state tournament pairings will be held on the Saturday preceding the state tournament. The participating coaches will seed teams 1-5 in their respective tournament, and the remaining teams, will be determined by a blind draw.”

Karl

How have last couple years pairings compared to LPh reg season final rankings?

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

I'm too lazy to go back and count, but i don't recall a year when there have been so many sub or near .500 teams seeded three or higher. Upsets can still happen, but it's hard to see any this year. I know any lower seed beating a higher seed is always technically an upset, but it's not always a shocker. In the last ten years, there sections 2 & 6 have often had two or more very good teams, either/any of which it was easy to see winning their section. That's not the case this year. Sections 2,3, 6, & 7 all have a dominant team and a significant step down to #2.

It just seems like a weird year, without as much drama in section play.

[bardown27]

I'm too lazy to go back and count, but i don't recall a year when there have been so many sub or near .500 teams seeded three or higher. Upsets can still happen, but it's hard to see any this year. I know any lower seed beating a higher seed is always technically an upset, but it's not always a shocker. In the last ten years, there sections 2 & 6 have often had two or more very good teams, either/any of which it was easy to see winning their section. That's not the case this year. Sections 2,3, 6, & 7 all have a dominant team and a significant step down to #2.

It just seems like a weird year, without as much drama in section play.

I wouldn't say section 2 has a significant step down to #2. HF has a legitimate shot to win section 2, and don't forget. HF has never lost to Minnetonka. HockeyOnFire won't let you forget it.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

I'm too lazy to go back and count, but i don't recall a year when there have been so many sub or near .500 teams seeded three or higher. Upsets can still happen, but it's hard to see any this year. I know any lower seed beating a higher seed is always technically an upset, but it's not always a shocker. In the last ten years, there sections 2 & 6 have often had two or more very good teams, either/any of which it was easy to see winning their section. That's not the case this year. Sections 2,3, 6, & 7 all have a dominant team and a significant step down to #2.

It just seems like a weird year, without as much drama in section play.

I wouldn't say section 2 has a significant step down to #2. HF has a legitimate shot to win section 2, and don't forget. HF has never lost to Minnetonka. HockeyOnFire won't let you forget it.

Yeah, I thought about that afterward. But what good is the internet if you can't stir the pot now and then? Why let those Rooskie trolls have all of the fun?

On the other hand, when was the last time Section 2 had a #3 seed with 15 loses? Even with HF, not too much drama compared to recent years.

[bardown27]

I'm too lazy to go back and count, but i don't recall a year when there have been so many sub or near .500 teams seeded three or higher. Upsets can still happen, but it's hard to see any this year. I know any lower seed beating a higher seed is always technically an upset, but it's not always a shocker. In the last ten years, there sections 2 & 6 have often had two or more very good teams, either/any of which it was easy to see winning their section. That's not the case this year. Sections 2,3, 6, & 7 all have a dominant team and a significant step down to #2.

It just seems like a weird year, without as much drama in section play.

I wouldn't say section 2 has a significant step down to #2. HF has a legitimate shot to win section 2, and don't forget. HF has never lost to Minnetonka. HockeyOnFire won't let you forget it.

Yeah, I thought about that afterward. But what good is the internet if you can't stir the pot now and then? Why let those Rooskie trolls have all of the fun?

On the other hand, when was the last time Section 2 had a #3 seed with 15 loses? Even with HF, not too much drama compared to recent years.

oh dont get me wrong, Im strongly pulling for Minnetonka. just stirring the pot a little bit.

[inthetwine]

I'm too lazy to go back and count, but i don't recall a year when there have been so many sub or near .500 teams seeded three or higher. Upsets can still happen, but it's hard to see any this year. I know any lower seed beating a higher seed is always technically an upset, but it's not always a shocker. In the last ten years, there sections 2 & 6 have often had two or more very good teams, either/any of which it was easy to see winning their section. That's not the case this year. Sections 2,3, 6, & 7 all have a dominant team and a significant step down to #2.

It just seems like a weird year, without as much drama in section play.

Same with section 4AA, when was the last time that the number two and number three seed had a 500 or less record?

I wouldn't say section 2 has a significant step down to #2. HF has a legitimate shot to win section 2, and don't forget. HF has never lost to Minnetonka. HockeyOnFire won't let you forget it.

Yeah, I thought about that afterward. But what good is the internet if you can't stir the pot now and then? Why let those Rooskie trolls have all of the fun?

On the other hand, when was the last time Section 2 had a #3 seed with 15 loses? Even with HF, not too much drama compared to recent years.

[inthetwine]

Same with section 4AA, when was the last time that the number two and number three seed had a 500 or less record?

I wouldn't say section 2 has a significant step down to #2. HF has a legitimate shot to win section 2, and don't forget. HF has never lost to Minnetonka. HockeyOnFire won't let you forget it.

Yeah, I thought about that afterward. But what good is the internet if you can't stir the pot now and then? Why let those Rooskie trolls have all of the fun?

On the other hand, when was the last time Section 2 had a #3 seed with 15 loses? Even with HF, not too much drama compared to recent years.

when was the last time that section 4AA had a 500 or worst team for 2 and 3 seeds?

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

[/quote][/quote] when was the last time that section 4AA had a 500 or worst team for 2 and 3 seeds?[/quote]

Under the assumption that most of 4AA was originally 3AA, I can say the answer is never.

And if I'm wrong, someone will correct me in minutes.

[BodyShots]

I'm too lazy to go back and count, but i don't recall a year when there have been so many sub or near .500 teams seeded three or higher. Upsets can still happen, but it's hard to see any this year. I know any lower seed beating a higher seed is always technically an upset, but it's not always a shocker. In the last ten years, there sections 2 & 6 have often had two or more very good teams, either/any of which it was easy to see winning their section. That's not the case this year. Sections 2,3, 6, & 7 all have a dominant team and a significant step down to #2.

It just seems like a weird year, without as much drama in section play.

What about the big drop off in Section 4AA from #1 Seed WBL to #2 seed HM?

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

What about the big drop off in Section 4AA from #1 Seed WBL to #2 seed HM? [/quote]

Yeah, that will be pretty embarrassing when WB biffs this one away. Hopefully it won't cost Sager his job. Which all Pioneers sincerely hope he keeps for many, many years.

[inthetwine]

What about the big drop off in Section 4AA from #1 Seed WBL to #2 seed HM?

Yeah, that will be pretty embarrassing when WB biffs this one away. Hopefully it won't cost Sager his job. Which all Pioneers sincerely hope he keeps for many, many years.[/quote]Yup, Hill people are Sagers biggest fans, and his only ones.

[karl(east)]

“PROJECTED PAIRINGS: Boys' Class AA/A: A seeding meeting to determine state tournament pairings will be held on the Saturday preceding the state tournament. The participating coaches will seed teams 1-5 in their respective tournament, and the remaining teams, will be determined by a blind draw.”

Karl

How have last couple years pairings compared to LPh reg season final rankings?

Can't say I've tracked LPH rankings vs. the seeds over the years, but I'd certainly think so. The only notable disagreement I've had with the seeds in the last couple years was EP getting the top seed in 2016 after taking some lumps during the regular season. Heading into sections, I had them behind Stillwater and Wayzata, who wound up at 2 and 3, respectively. I believe LPH had EP higher.