MSHSL Seedings vs Computer (KRACH & LSQRANK)

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LSQRANK
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Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

MSHSL Seedings vs Computer (KRACH & LSQRANK)

Post by LSQRANK » Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:40 am

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MSHSL Girls Hockey Playoff Results Comparison 
---------------------------------------------                                    
Updated:  WEDS Feb 24, 2018  ; sectional play-offs for State Tournament seedings completed.                                                                 

The marigin of error (MOE) for KRACH in this analysis is unknown because it is either intentionally
not published or the folks who use this software are unable or unaware how to recover this
staistical value to qualifying the precicison of their rating profile.  The MOE for the 
LSQRANK rating profile values is approximately +/- two-thirds of a goal (0.6667) at this stage in the season,
which will be assummed that the KRACH has a similar value in magnitude.

For the purposes of comparison, tallys for the two computer rating systems and the human based MSHSL seeding 
were computed on a per game basis as follows:

MSHSL SEEDING:   +1 point awarded  for every higher seed defeating a lower  seed; 
                  0 point assigned for every lower  seed defeating a higher seed.
				 
KRACH & LSQRANK: +1	point awarded  for every numerically higher rated team defeating a lower rated team.
                 +1 point awarded  for predicting a "Tie", i.e. the following 2 criteria was met:
                         (1) the predicted score differential calculated using its associated rating profile was smaller than the MOE, and 
                         (2) the observed  score differential (actual score) was a 1 goal game typical of an overtime victory.
						 
                          An extreme example of this situation occurred in game #49 (below), a 1st round matchup between the 4th and 5th seeded teams
                          in section 7A, Cloquet-Esko-Carlton and Hibbing/Chisholm, respectively.  KRACH & LSQRANK both predicted a delta of nearly
                          zero, 0.0771 by KRACH and -0.0303 by LSQRANK. Since this was a play-off game, multiple OT periods are played untill a winner
                          is determined.  H/C beat CEC at the 9:00 mark in OT4. Shots were 37 to 37!!
						  						 
                  0 point for all other outcomes
				  
				  
Root-Mean-Square-Errors (RMSE) were computed for both KRACH & LSQRANK.  The RMSE is a numerical value that quantifies the closest of
the rating profile's predicted score differentials to that of the observed corrected score. Raw scores are corrected for non-ESG's and ENG's.
RMSE is computed as the square root of the sum of the square of the error differences divided by the total number of games observed.

RMSE =  SQRT[ SUM(SQR(delta" - delta'))/(Num_Games) ]				  
				  
				  
                      Points
                      -------
Current Tally    GP   +1     0     %    RMSE
--------------   ---  ---  ---   ----   ----
MSHSL SEEDING :  123   94  29    76.4   
KRACH         :  123  102  21    82.9   2.48
LSQRANK       :  123  105  18    85.4   2.20

                                           U = TIE &#40;delta' << MOE, i.e. Undetermined, zero is contained in 95% C.I.&#41;
                                           0 = BAD &#40;outside   of 95% C.I.&#41; or lower  seed won
                                           1 = OK  &#40;contained in 95% C.I.&#41; or higher seed won
																					 
Play-In          = Rnd 0                  delta" = observed  CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                                                          
Quarter-Finals   = RND 1                  delta' = predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                GAME
Semi-Finals      = RND 2                                                                            PREDICTION 
Sectional-Finals = RND 3                  MOE = Margin of Error  = 0.67 goal                        ----------
State_Quarter    = RND 4                                                                                     L 
State_Semis      = RND 5                   C.I = &#91;delta +/- MOE &#93;                                            S 
State_Finals     = RND 6               95% C.I = &#91;delta +/- 0.67&#93;                                      M  K  Q 
                                                                                                       S  R  R 
                                                                     E   P   S   E   P                 H  A  A 
                 MSHSL                             TRANS             S   P   H   N   I     RAW  CORR   S  C  N 
##  RND  SEC CLS SEED  TEAM                        KRACH   LSQRANK   G   G   G   G   M   SCORE  SCORE  L  H  K  Notes  
==  ===  === === ====  ======================  ========= =========  ==  ==  ==  ==  ==   =====  =====  =  =  =  ========
1    0    1   AA    8  RochesterJohnMarshall    987.2157  986.7675   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.00   0  0  0  REG_TIME                  
                    9  RochesterCentury         984.5932  984.0385   2   0   0   0   0      2   2.00   
                                                  2.6225    2.7290                   delta" =  -1.00 
															  
2    1    1   AA    1  Farmington               996.2383  996.9257  14   0   0   0   2     14  14.00   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    9  RochesterCentury         984.5932  984.0385   1   0   0   0   0      1   1.00            1&#58;59_2nd       
                                                 11.6451   12.8872                   delta" =  13.00
					                                               
3    1    1   AA    4  LakevilleNorth           994.9546  996.0242   0   0   1   0   4      1   1.25   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Northfield	            992.5544  992.7882   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.00
                                                  2.4002     3.236                   delta" =   1.25
					                                               
4    1    1   AA    3  RochesterMayo            993.1432  991.8155   2   0   0   0  17       2  2.00   0  0  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Owatonna                 991.5913  991.7560   3   0   0   0   8       3  3.00   
                                                  1.5519    0.0595 < MOE              delta" =  -1.00
					                                               
5    1    1   AA    2  LakevilleSouth           995.5854  996.6326   4   2   0   0   2       6  5.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  DodgeCounty              992.4341  993.5716   1   0   0   0   6       1  1.0
                                                  3.1513     3.061                   delta" =   4.6
					                                               
6    1    2   AA    1  EdenPrairie              996.4934  997.1945   2   1   1   0   4       4  4.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  BloomingtonJefferson     991.1515  992.4950   0   0   0   0  12       0  0.0
                                                  5.3419    4.6995                   delta" =   4.05
					                                               
7    1    2   AA    4  HolyFamily/Waconia       993.5592  994.7287   0   1   0   0   8       1  0.8    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  PriorLake                993.6792  994.3075   2   0   0   0   4       2  2.0
                                                 -0.1200    0.4212 < MOE              delta" =  -1.2 
					                                               
8    1    2   AA    3  Shakopee                 994.7710  995.7956   3   0   0   0   6       3  3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  NewPrague                992.7650  993.5615   0   0   0   0   2       2  2.0  
                                                  2.0060    2.2341                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
9    1    2   AA    2  Minnetonka               995.7326  996.8947   2   0   0   0   4       2  2.0    1  1  1  OT1_2&#58;43 
                    7  Chaska/Chanhassen        992.9167  994.0125   1   0   0   0   2       1  1.0
                                                  2.8159    2.8822                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
10   1    3   AA    1  Eagan                    996.8454  996.9329   3   2   0   0   2      5   4.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  Rosemount                988.8684  989.8959   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  7.9770     7.037                   delta" =   4.6
					                                               
11   1    3   AA    4  Burnsville               993.4705  994.7137   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    5  EastRidge                992.6379  993.8037   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    
                                                  0.8326    0.9100                   delta" =  -2.0
					                                               
12   1    3   AA    3  ParkofCottageGrove       993.3941  993.9166   1   0   0   0   2      1   1.0    0  0  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Eastview                 992.8980  994.9341   3   0   0   1   2      4   3.0    
                                                  0.4961   -1.0175                   delta" =  -2.0
					                                               
13   1    3   AA    2  AppleValley              993.4750  995.2580   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  OT1_7&#58;07
                    7  Hastings                 989.8919  991.3438   1   1   0   0   4      2   1.8
                                                  3.5831    3.9142                   delta" =   1.2
					                                               
14   1    4   AA    1  Hill-Murray              998.1818  998.6935  11   2   0   0   8     13  12.6    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    8  Irondale                 988.7439  990.1233   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             12&#58;16_1st
                                                  9.4379    8.5702                   delta" =  12.6
					                                               
15   1    4   AA    4  Stillwater               992.2966  993.5057   0   1   0   0  10      1   0.8    0  0  0  OT3_4&#58;00
                    5  Roseville                989.986   992.5018   1   1   0   0  12      2   1.8
                                                  2.3106    1.0039                   delta" =  -1.0
					                                               
16   1    4   AA    3  WhiteBearLake            994.4551  995.2827   6   0   0   0   4      6   6.0    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  NorthSt.Paul/Tartan      988.9098  991.0060   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0             2&#58;35_2nd 
                                                  5.5453    4.2767                   delta" =   6.0
					                                               
17   1    4   AA    2  MoundsView               994.4195  995.0818   5   0   0   0   2      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Woodbury                 987.5928  988.9581   0   0   0   0   0      0   0.0   
                                                  6.8267    6.1237                   delta" =   5.0
					                                               
18   1    5   AA    4  Rogers                   993.5760  994.6876   4   0   0   0   0      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  ChamplinPark/CoonRapids  992.7112  994.0376   2   0   0   0   0      2   2.0  
                                                  0.8648    0.6500  < MOE            delta" =   2.0
					                                               
19   1    5   AA    3  Blaine                   996.5451  997.1775   1   1   0   0   6      2   1.8    1  1  1  OT1_7&#58;30
                    6  Anoka                    993.3408  995.3465   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  3.2043    1.8310                   delta" =   0.8
					                                               
20   1    5   AA    2  MapleGrove               997.7516  997.5522   4   0   0   0   8      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  SpringLakePark           991.0280  992.7017   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0
                                                  6.7236    4.8505                   delta" =   4.0
					                                               
21   0    6   AA    8  RobbinsdaleArmstrong/C   987.6883  989.2443   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8    1  0  0  OT2_6&#58;28
                    9  Osseo/ParkCenter         988.6878  990.4340   1   0   0   0  12      1   1.0
                                                 -0.9995   -1.1897                   delta" =   0.8
										                           
22   1    6   AA    1  Edina                    999.4273 1000.0000  10   4   0   0   4     14  13.2    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    8  RobbinsdaleArmstrong/C   987.6883  989.2443   0   0   0   0  13      0   0.0             1&#58;58_2nd                    
                                                 11.7390   10.7557                   delta" =  13.2
					                                               
23   1    6   AA    4  Cretin-DerhamHall        993.6184  995.0980   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Hopkins/St.LouisPark     993.5054  994.5776   2   0   0   0   4      2   2.0
                                                  0.1130    0.5204 < MOE             delta" =   1.0
					                                               
24   1    6   AA    3  Wayzata                  996.3171  997.1089   1   1   1   0  14      3   3.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Benilde-St.Margaret's    992.0461  993.6996   2   0   0   0  12      2   2.0
                                                  4.2710    3.4093                   delta" =   1.05
					                                               
25   1    6   AA    2  Blake                   1000.0000  999.2350   8   0   2   0   6     10  10.50   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    7  MinnehahaUnited          989.4328  989.9771   0   0   0   0   0      0   0.0             6&#58;12_2nd
                                                 10.5672    9.2579                   delta" =  10.50
					                                               
26   1    7   AA    1  Andover                  996.843   998.0472   5   1   0   1   4      7   5.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  Duluth                   991.1894  992.4445   2   0   0   0   4      2   2.0
                                                  5.6536    5.6027                   delta" =   3.6
				                                              
27   1    7   AA    4  ElkRiver/Zimmerman       993.9878  995.3898   3   1   1   0   6      5   5.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC 992.8876  993.6594   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0
                                                  1.1002    1.7304                   delta" =   4.05
					                                               
28   1    7   AA    3  GrandRapids/Greenway     994.4621  994.7515   5   0   0   0  12      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  St.Francis/NorthBranch   991.5247  992.4816   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  2.9374    2.2699                   delta" =   4.0
					                                               
29   1    7   AA    2  ForestLake               996.2881  996.8850   1   1   1   0   8      3   3.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Princeton                992.0224  992.6846   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0
                                                  4.2657    4.2004                   delta" =   2.05
					                                               
30   1    8   AA    1  Roseau                   996.7869  996.3239   2   1   1   0   4      4   4.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  Bemidji                  986.3606  988.5189   1   0   0   0  12      1   1.0 
                                                 10.4263    7.8050                   delta" =   3.05
					                                               
31   1    8   AA    4  St.Cloud                 994.7823  994.3708   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Sartell/SaukRapids       993.0421  993.0878   0   0   0   0   2      6   0.0
                                                  1.7402    1.2830                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
32   1    8   AA    3  NorthWrightCounty        994.2422  994.6357   0   1   0   0  15      1   0.8    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    6  Moorhead                 991.455   991.7495   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    
                                                  2.7872    2.8862                   delta" =  -2.2   
					                                               
33   1    8   AA    2  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.5406  995.7778   6   0   0   0   6      6   6.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Buffalo                  991.2701  992.5919   1   0   0   0   1      1   1.0
                                                  5.2705    3.1859                   delta" =   5.0
							                                       
34   1    1    A    4  Austin                   987.0983  986.7468   4   1   0   0   8      5   4.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  AlbertLea                985.4628  984.8881   2   1   0   0   6      3   2.8
                                                  1.6355    1.8587                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
35   1    1    A    3  Faribault                990.4926  990.6293  10   2   0   0   2     12  11.6    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  Waseca                   985.0429  985.7478   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0             6&#58;58_2nd
                                                  5.4497    4.8815                   delta" =  11.6
					                                               
36   1    2    A    4  MoundWestonka            990.1762  991.9184   5   3   0   0  10      8   7.4    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  MinnesotaRiver           987.2107  987.0076   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8             2&#58;29_3rd
                                                  2.9655    4.9108                   delta" =   6.6
					                                               
37   1    2    A    3  NewUlm                   992.3898  993.0934   5   0   0   0   6      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato 985.5887  988.1736   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0
                                                  6.8011    4.9198                   delta" =   4.0
					                                               
38   1    3    A    4  Luverne                  987.6959  987.6031   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Worthington              984.4520  982.6384   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  3.2439    4.9647                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
39   1    3    A    3  MankatoEast              988.4340  988.3336   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  OT1_2&#58;41
                    6  Windom                   985.7552  985.7399   2   0   0   0   0      2   2.0
                                                  2.6788    2.5937                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
40   1    3    A    2  MankatoWest              988.4781  988.2723   9   0   0   0   4      9   9.0    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    7  Fairmont                 981.4617  980.0428   0   0   0   0   0      0   0.0             15&#58;02_2nd
                                                  7.0164    8.2295                   delta" =   9.0
					                                               
41   1    4    A    4  Simley                   989.1111  991.0898   3   1   0   0   8      4   3.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  HenrySibley              988.1284  989.7518   1   1   0   0  14      2   1.8
                                                  0.9827     1.338                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
42   1    4    A    3  Mahtomedi                992.8776  993.4987   5   0   0   0   4      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  St.PaulBlades            984.9163  986.1216   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0
                                                  7.9613    7.3771                   delta" =   5.0
					                                               
43   1    5    A    4  Minneapolis              989.7079  991.1074   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    5  ChisagoLakes             989.2826  990.3799   1   2   0   0   4      3   2.6    
                                                  0.4253    0.7275                   delta" =  -2.6
					                                               
44   1    5    A    3  Totino-Grace             989.7646  990.9973   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    6  HolyAngels               988.9851  990.6957   2   1   0   0   4      3   2.8    
                                                  0.7795    0.3016 < MO              delta" =  -2.8
					                                               
45   1    6    A    4  Willmar                  990.7499  991.6271   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  PrairieCentre            987.8403  988.5939   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0   
                                                  2.9096    3.0332                   delta" =   0.8
					                                               
46   1    6    A    3  RiverLakes               991.0794   992.046   2   0   0   0  13      2   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  NorthernLakes            987.2727  988.2167   1   0   0   0  18      1   1.0
                                                  3.8067    3.8293                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
47   1    6    A    2  FergusFalls              992.0778  992.7242   9   1   0   0   2     10   9.8    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    7  MorrisArea/BensonArea    979.7377  980.0565   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0             5&#58;23_2nd
                                                 12.3401   12.6677                   delta" =   9.8
					                                               
48   1    7    A    1  DuluthMarshall           993.1339  993.3110   2   2   0   1  12      5   3.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  NorthShore               987.3231  988.8812   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.0   
                                                  5.8108    4.4298                   delta" =   2.6
					                                               
49   1    7    A    4  Cloquet-Esko-Carlton     990.6799  992.3972   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0    0  1  1  OT4_9&#58;00   
                    5  Hibbing/Chisholm         990.6028  992.4275   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0             shots 37_vs_37 !!
                                                  0.0771   -0.0303  < MOE            delta" =  -1.0
					                                               
50   1    7    A    3  InternationalFalls       991.0989  991.5933   1   1   1   0   6      3   3.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  MooseLakeArea            989.7022  991.0085   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0 
                                                  1.3967    0.5848 < MOE             delta" =   2.05
					                                               
51   1    7    A    2  Proctor/Hermantown       992.5915  994.0229   2   0   1   0   8      3   3.25   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Eveleth-Gilbert          987.9683  988.2348   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0 
                                                  4.6232    5.7881                   delta" =   3.25
					                                               
52   1    8    A    4  DetroitLakes             987.032   987.8866   4   0   0   0   6      4   4.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME   
                    5  ParkRapids               982.4734  983.4536   2   3   0   0   8      5   4.4             Big_Upset
                                                  4.5586     4.433                   delta" =  -0.4
					                                               
53   1    8    A    3  EastGrandForks           993.1544  993.3453   6   0   0   0   2      6   6.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Crookston                981.6184  983.3380   1   0   0   0   2      1   1.0
                                                 11.5360   10.0073                   delta" =   5.0
												 
54   2    3   AA    1  Eagan                    996.8454  996.9329   1   1   0   0   6      2   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  EastRidge                992.6379  993.8037   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0
                                                  4.2075    3.1292                   delta" =   1.8

55   2    7   AA    1  Andover                  996.8430  998.0472   2   1   0   0   8      3   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  ElkRiver/Zimmerman       993.9878  995.3898   0   2   0   0   6      2   1.6    
                                                  2.8552    2.6574                   delta" =   1.2
												  
56   2    3   AA    2  AppleValley              993.4750  995.2580   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    5  EastRidge                992.6379  993.8037   1   0   0   0   2      1   1.0    
                                                  0.8371    1.4543                   delta" =  -1.0

57   2    7    A    1  DuluthMarshall           993.1339  993.3110   1   0   0   0  12      1   1.0	   0  0  0  OT1_0&#58;26									  
                    5  Hibbing/Chisholm         990.6028  992.4275   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0
                                                  2.5311    0.8835                   delta" =  -1.0    

58   2    7   AA    2  ForestLake               996.2881  996.8850   2   0   0   1  14      3   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  GrandRapids/Greenway     994.4621  994.7515   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0
                                                  1.8260    2.1335                   delta" =   2.0    

59   2    1    A    1  RedWing                  994.8108  994.3981   8   2   0   0   4     10   9.6    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    4  Austin                   987.0983  986.7468   0   0   0   0  16      0   0.0             8&#58;49_2nd
                                                  7.7125    7.6513                   delta" =   9.6

60   2    1    A    2  RochesterLourdes         992.0330  993.4413   2   2   2   0  10      6   6.1    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    3  Faribault                990.4926  990.6293   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0             15&#58;06_3rd
                                                  1.5404    2.8120                   delta" =   6.1

61   2    3    A    1  Marshall                 988.6180  989.1330   6   0   0   0   4      6   6.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME                                                               
                    4  Luverne                  987.6959  987.6031   3   0   0   0   0      3   3.0
                                                  0.9221    1.5299                   delta" =   3.0

62   2    3    A    2  MankatoWest              988.4781  988.2723   1   5   0   0   8      6   5.0    1  1  1  OT1_1&#58;45
                    3  MankatoEast              988.4340  988.3336   3   2   0   0  14      5   4.6
                                                  0.0441   -0.0613 < MOE             delta" =   0.4

63   2    7    A    2  Proctor/Hermantown       992.5915  994.0229   1   1   0   0   4      2   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  InternationalFalls       991.0989  991.5933   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8
                                                  1.4926    2.4296                   delta" =   1.0

64   2    1   AA    1  Farmington               996.2383  996.9257   4   1   1   0  16      6   6.05   1  1  1  RUN_TIME   
                    4  LakevilleNorth           994.9546  996.0242   0   0   0   0  16      0   0.0             11&#58;59_3rd
                                                  1.2837    0.9015                   delta" =   6.05

65   2    1   AA    2  LakevilleSouth           995.5854  996.6326   6   1   0   0   4      7   6.8    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  Owatonna                 991.5913  991.7560   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0             1&#58;06_3rd
                                                  3.9941    4.8766                   delta" =   6.8

66   2    8    A    1  Warroad                  995.6964  997.1227  13   0   2   0   6     15  15.5    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  ParkRapids               982.4734  983.4536   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0             12&#58;31_1st
                                                 13.2230   13.6691                   delta" =  15.5

67   2    8    A    2  ThiefRiverFalls          994.4935  994.1193   1   1   0   0  12      2   1.8    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  EastGrandForks           993.1544  993.3453   5   0   0   0   8      5   5.0
                                                  1.3391    0.7740                   delta" =  -3.2

68   2    4   AA    1  Hill-Murray              998.1818  998.6935   6   0   0   0   8      6   6.0    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  Roseville                989.9860  992.5018   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             12&#58;59_3rd
                                                  8.1958    6.1917                   delta" =   6.0

69   2    5    A    2  Orono                    991.3181  992.9523   3   0   0   0  14      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  HolyAngels               988.9851  990.6957   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0
                                                  2.3330    2.2566                   delta" =   3.0

70   2    5   AA    1  Centennial               999.3528  999.0344   4   1   0   0  10      5   4.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Rogers                   993.5760  994.6876   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8
                                                  5.7768    4.3468                   delta" =   4.0

71   2    8   AA    2  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.5406  995.7778   5   0   1   0   8      6   6.25   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  Moorhead                 991.4550  991.7495   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             4&#58;07_3rd
                                                  5.0856    4.0283                   delta" =   6.25

72   2    2   AA    1  EdenPrairie              996.4934  997.1945   4   2   2   0  12      8   8.10   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  PriorLake                993.6792  994.3075   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8             16&#58;29_3rd
                                                  2.8142    2.8870                   delta" =   6.30

73   2    4    A    1  St.PaulUnited            994.7995  995.2424   5   0   0   0   2      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Simley                   989.1111  991.0898   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0
                                                  5.6884	4.1526                   delta" =   5.0

74   2    2    A    2  Hutchinson               992.1586  992.9285   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  NewUlm                   992.3898  993.0934   1   1   0   2   2      4   1.8
                                                 -0.2312   -0.1649 < MOE             delta" =  -0.8 

75   2    6    A    1  Alexandria               995.0156  994.7384   2   0   0   0  10      2   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Willmar                  990.7499  991.6271   0   1   0   0   4      1   0.8
                                                  4.2657    3.1113                   delta" =   1.2

76   2    6    A    2  FergusFalls              992.0778  992.7242   2   0   0   0   2      2   2.0    0  0  1  OT1_0&#58;57
                    3  RiverLakes               991.0794  992.0460   2   1   0   0   0      3   2.8
                                                  0.9984    0.6782 < MOE             delta" =  -0.8

77   2    8   AA    1  Roseau                   996.7869  996.3239   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  St.Cloud                 994.7823  994.3708   2   0   0   0   8      2   2.0
                                                  2.0046    1.9531                   delta" =   1.0

78   2    4   AA    2  MoundsView               994.4195  995.0818   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  WhiteBearLake            994.4551  995.2827   3   0   0   0   2      3   3.0
                                                 -0.0356   -0.2009  <  MOE           delta" =  -2.0

79   2    2    A    1  Delano/Rockford          992.8134  993.4092   4   0   0   0   4      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  MoundWestonka            990.1762  991.9184   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0
                                                  2.6372    1.4908                   delta" =   3.0

80   2    5    A    1  Breck                    996.2255  997.3235   9   0   1   0   8     10  10.25   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  ChisagoLakes             989.2826  990.3799   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             10&#58;55_2nd
                                                  6.9429    6.9436                   delta" =  10.25 

81   2    5   AA    2  MapleGrove               997.7516  997.5522   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  Blaine                   996.5451  997.1775   3   0   0   0   6      3   3.0
                                                  1.2065    0.3747 < MOE             delta" =  -2.0

82   2    2   AA    2  Minnetonka               995.7326  996.8947   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  Shakopee                 994.7710  995.7956   2   0   0   0   2      2   2.0
                                                  0.9616    1.0991                   delta" =  -1.0 

83   2    4    A    2  SouthStPaul              994.2171  994.7079   4   1   0   1   4      5   3.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  Mahtomedi                992.8776  993.4987   3   0   0   0   6      3   3.0
                                                  1.3395    1.2092                   delta" =   0.8

84   2    6   AA    1  Edina                    999.4273 1000.0000   4   1   0   0   8      5   4.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Cretin-DerhamHall        993.6184  995.0980   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0
                                                  5.8089    4.9020                   delta" =   4.8

85   2    3   AA    1  Eagan                    996.8454  996.9329   4   0   0   0   4      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Eastview                 992.8980  994.9341   1   2   0   0   8      3   2.6  
                                                  3.9474    1.9988                   delta" =   1.4

86   2    6   AA    2  Blake                   1000.0000  999.2350   2   1   0   1  10      4   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME 
                    3  Wayzata                  996.3171  997.1089   0   2   0   0   4      2   1.6
                                                  3.6829    2.1261                   delta" =   1.2

87   3    7    A    2  Proctor/Hermantown       992.5915  994.0229   5   0   0   0   8      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Hibbing/Chisholm         990.6028  992.4275   1   1   0   0   2      2   1.8 
                                                  1.9887    1.5954                   delta" =   3.2

88   3    3    A    1  Marshall                 988.6180  989.1330   1   1   0   0   0      2   1.8    1  1  1  OT1_1&#58;33
                    2  MankatoWest              988.4781  988.2723   1   0   0   0   0      1   1.0
                                                  0.1399    0.8607                   delta" =   0.8

89   3    1   AA    1  Farmington               996.2383  996.9257   3   2   0   0  14      5   4.6    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    2  LakevilleSouth           995.5854  996.6326   4   1   1   0  14      6   6.05
                                                  0.6529    0.2931 < MOE             delta" =  -1.45 

90   3    7   AA    1  Andover                  996.843   998.0472   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    2  ForestLake               996.2881  996.8850   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  3.9362    2.6924                   delta" =   3.0

91   3    6    A    1  Alexandria               995.0156  994.7384   1   1   0   1  10      3   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  RiverLakes               991.0794  992.0460   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0
                                                  3.9362    2.6924                   delta" =   1.8

92   3    8    A    1  Warroad                  995.6964  997.1227   2   1   1   0   6      4   4.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  EastGrandForks           993.1544  993.3453   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  2.5420    3.7774                   delta" =   3.05

93   3    4    A    1  St.PaulUnited            994.7995  995.2424   0   2   0   0  10      2   1.60   1  1  1  OT1_4&#58;55
                    2  SouthStPaul              994.2171  994.7079   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.00
                                                  0.5824    0.5345 < MOE             delta" =   0.60

94   3    1    A    1  RedWing                  994.8108  994.3981   3   1   0   0   4      4   3.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    2  RochesterLourdes         992.0330  993.4413   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  2.7770    0.9568                   delta" =   2.8

95   3    2    A    1  Delano/Rockford          992.8134  993.4092   2   0   0   0   8      2   2.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  NewUlm                   992.3898  993.0934   4   1   0   0   6      5   4.8
                                                  0.4236	0.3158 < MOE             delta" =  -2.8 

96   3    5    A    1  Breck                    996.2255  997.3235   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  OT1_0&#58;56
                    2  Orono                    991.3181  992.9523   1   1   0   0   0      2   1.8
                                                  4.9074    4.3712                   delta" =   1.2

97   3    2   AA    1  EdenPrairie              996.4934  997.1945   2   1   0   0   8      3   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  Shakopee                 994.7710  995.7956   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  1.7224    1.3989                   delta" =   2.8

98   3    4   AA    1  Hill-Murray              998.1818  998.6935   2   2   0   0  10      4   3.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  WhiteBearLake            994.4551  995.2827   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0
                                                  3.7267    3.4108                   delta" =   3.6

99   3    5   AA    1  Centennial               999.3528  999.0344   2   1   0   0   4      3   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  Blaine                   996.5451  997.1775   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  2.8077    1.8569                   delta" =   2.8

100  3    8   AA    1  Roseau                   996.7869  996.3239   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8    0  1  1  OT3_1&#58;32
                    2  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.5406  995.7778   2   0   0   0  10      2   2.0 
                                                  0.2463    0.5461 < MOE             delta" =  -1.2 

101  3    6   AA    1  Edina                    999.4273 1000.0000   2   2   0   0   8      4   3.6    1  0  1  REG_TIME
                    2  Blake                   1000.0000  999.2350   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8
                                                 -0.5727    0.7650                   delta" =   1.8

Play-In          = Rnd 0                  delta" = observed  CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                                                          
Quarter-Finals   = RND 1                           predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                
Semi-Finals      = RND 2                                                                             
Sectional-Finals = RND 3                  MOE = Margin of Error  = 0.67 goal                        
State_Quarter    = RND 4                                                                                     L 
State_Semis      = RND 5                   C.I = &#91;delta +/- MOE &#93;                                            S 
State_Finals     = RND 6               95% C.I = &#91;delta +/- 0.67&#93;                                      M  K  Q   s
                                                                                                       S  R  R   h
                                                                     E   P   S   E   P                 H  A  A   o
                 MSHSL                             TRANS             S   P   H   N   I     RAW  CORR   S  C  N   t   P
##  RND  W/L CLS SEED  TEAM                        KRACH   LSQRANK   G   G   G   G   M   SCORE  SCORE  L  H  K   s   P   Notes  
==  ===  === === ====  ======================  ========= =========  ==  ==  ==  ==  ==   =====  =====  =  =  =  === ===  ==============
102 QTR  W     A    2  Breck                    996.3050  997.1595   7   2   0   0   6      9   8.6    1  1  1   54 2-4  RUN_12&#58;23_2nd 
           L   A    8  Marshall                 989.1339  988.9223   2   0   0   0   8      2   2.0              15 0-3
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           RUN   +7.1711   +8.2372                   delta" =   6.6              69
 
103 QTR    L   A    3  RedWing                  994.8104  994.4037   1   0   0   0  10      1   0.83   0  0  0   24 0-4  EAG_@_16&#58;25_3rd        
         W     A    6  Proctor/Hermantown       992.8189  993.7825   2   0   0   1  10      3   2.00             26 0-4  ENG_@_15&#58;11_3rd   
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                           REG   +1.9915   +0.6212 < MOE             delta" =  -1.17             50
 
104 QTR  W     A    1  Warroad                  996.1836  997.0438   5   0   0   0   6      5   5.00   1  1  1   35 0-1
           L   A    7  NewUlm                   992.9573  992.9509   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.00             20 0-3
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                           REG   +3.2263   +4.0929                   delta" =   5.0              55
 
105 QTR  W     A    4  Alexandria               994.9503  994.4402   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1   18 0-3
           L   A    5  St.PaulUnited            994.9874  995.0856   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0              35 0-4 
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                           REG   -0.0371   -0.6454 < MOE                        1.0              53
                                                                    
106 QTR  W    AA    2  Centennial               999.6622  998.8639   1   1   0   0   6      2   1.8    1  1  1   33 1-5
           L  AA    6  LakevilleSouth           996.0700  996.6627   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0              32 0-3
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG   +3.5922   +2.2012                              0.8              65
 
107 QTR    L  AA    3  Hill-Murray              998.5009  998.7433   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0    0  0  0   27 0-1
         W    AA    7  Eagan                    996.9765  996.6117   1   1   0   0   2      2   1.8              15
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG   +1.5244   +2.1316                             -0.8              42

108 QTR  W    AA    1  Edina                   1000.0000 1000.0000   2   2   0   0   8      4   3.6    1  1  1   32 2-3
           L  AA    8  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.7836  995.7490   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0              10
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG   +3.2164   +4.2510                              3.6              42
	
109 QTR    L  AA    4  Andover                  997.2360  997.7869   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0    0  1  1   29 0-1
         W    AA    5  EdenPrairie              996.5704  997.1954   1   0   0   1   2      2   1.0              31 0-3  ENG_@_15&#58;38_3rd
                                                --------  --------                              ---              ---
                                           REG   +0.6656   +0.5915 < MOE                       -1.0              60
                                                                     
110 SEMI W     A    2  Breck                    996.3050  997.1595   5   1   0   0   8      6   5.8    1  1  1   44 1-6  RUN_@_9&#58;30_3rd
           L   A    6  Proctor/Hermantown       992.8189  993.7825   0   0   0   0  12      0   0.0               9 0-4
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           RUN    3.4861    3.3770                              5.8              53

111 SEMI W     A    1  Warroad                  996.1836  997.0438   5   2   0   0   4      7   6.6    1  1  1   27 2-4  RUN_@_6&#58;27_3rd
           L   A    4  Alexandria               994.9503  994.4402   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0              13
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           RUN    1.2333    2.6036                              5.6              40

112 SEMI W    AA    2  Centennial               999.6622  998.8639   4   2   0   0  12      6   5.6    1  1  1   23 2-5  RUN_@_10&#58;13_3rd
           L  AA    7  Eagan                    996.9765  996.6117   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.0              23 0-6  ESG_@_13&#58;51_3rd
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    2.6857    2.2522                              4.6              46

113 SEMI W    AA    1  Edina                   1000.0000 1000.0000   3   0   0   1   4      4   3.0    1  1  1   47 0-1  ENG_@_16&#58;57_3rd
           L  AA    5  EdenPrairie              996.5704  997.1954   2   0   0   0   2      2   2.0              15 0-2
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    3.4296    2.8046                              1.0              62
   
114 FINA   L   A    1  Warroad                  996.1836  997.0438   0   2   0   0   8      2   1.6    0  1  1   27 2-3
         W     A    2  Breck                    996.3050  997.1595   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0              28 0-3  OT1_@_0&#58;08
                                                --------  --------                             ----              --
                                           OT1   -0.1214   -0.1157 < MOE                       -1.4              56

115 FINA W    AA    1  Edina                   1000.0000 1000.0000   1   1   0   0   8      2   1.8    1  1  1   27 1-2
           L  AA    2  Centennial               999.6622  998.8639   0   1   0   0   4      1   0.8              14 1-4
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    0.3378    1.1361                              1.0              41

116 3rd  W     A    4  Alexandria               994.9503  994.4402  1   0   0   0   8       1   1.0    1  1  1   21 0-1  ESG_0&#58;18_2nd
           L   A    6  Proctor/Hermantown       992.8189  993.7825  0   0   0   0   2       0   0.0              18 0-4 
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    2.1314    0.6577 < MOE                        1.0              39
  
117 3rd    L  AA    5  EdenPrairie              996.5704  997.1954  0   0   0   0  14       0   0.0    0  1  0   31 0-4
         W    AA    7  Eagan                    996.9765  996.6117  2   1   0   0  10       3   2.8              34 1-6
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            REG  -0.4061    0.5837 < MOE                       -2.8              65

118 CONSOL  W  A    3  RedWing                  994.8104  994.4037   6   1   0   0   2      7   6.8    1  1  1   47 1-5  RUN_@_4&#58;42_3rd
            L  A    8  Marshall                 989.1339  988.9223   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0              21 0-1 
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            RUN   5.6765    5.4814                              6.8              68

119 CONSOL  W  A    5  St.PaulUnited            994.9874  995.0856   3   2   0   0  14      5   4.6    1  1  1   32 2-5
            L  A    7  NewUlm                   992.9573  992.9509   2   0   0   0  12      2   2.0              23 0-6
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            REG   2.0301    2.1347                              2.6              55

120 CONSOL L  AA    3  Hill-Murray              998.5009  998.7433   0   1   0   0  10      1   1.0    0  0  0   40 1-6
           W  AA    6  LakevilleSouth           996.0700  996.6627   3   1   0   0  12      4   3.8              32 1-5             
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            REG   2.4309    2.0806                             -2.8              72
												 
121 CONSOL W  AA    4  Andover                  997.2360  997.7869   4   0   0   0   8      4   4.0    1  1  1   39 0-5  OT1_6&#58;51
           L  AA    8  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.7836  995.7490   2   1   0   0  12      3   2.8              24 1-3
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            OT1   0.4524    2.0379                              1.2              63

122 CONSOL  L  A    3  RedWing                  994.8104  994.4037   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0    0  1  1   34 0-7
            W  A    5  St.PaulUnited            994.9874  995.0856   1   1   1   0  14      3   3.05             25 1-3  OT1_PPG_0&#58;42 
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                            OT1  -0.1770   -0.6819                             -1.05             59

123 CONSOL  W  AA   4  Andover                  997.2360  997.7869   5   0   0   0   6      5   5.0    1  1  1   57 0-5  OT3_ESG_3&#58;20
            L  AA   6  LakevilleSouth           996.0700  996.6627   3   1   0   0  10      4   3.8              34
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            OT3   1.1660    1.1242                              1.2              91


2018 MSHSL State Tournament Qualifiers
-------------------------------------
1 AA   LakevilleSouth
2 AA   EdenPrairie
3 AA   Eagan
4 AA   Hill-Murray
5 AA   Centennial
6 AA   Edina
7 AA   Andover
8 AA   Brainerd/LittleFalls
------------------------------
1  A   RedWing
2  A   NewUlm
3  A   Marshall
4  A   St.PaulUnited
5  A   Breck
6  A   Alexandria
7  A   Proctor/Hermantown
8  A   Warroad
Last edited by LSQRANK on Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:35 pm, edited 4 times in total.

LSQRANK
Posts: 415
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Post by LSQRANK » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:06 pm

Transformed KRACH Values

Code: Select all

RAW           TRANSFORMED
KRACH         KRACH                                            LSQRANK
========      ==========                                       =========
1424.001      1000.0000     Blake                              1000.0000   Edina                          
1011.46       999.4273      Edina                               999.2251   Blake                          
967.446       999.3528      Centennial                          999.0111   Centennial                     
480.361       998.1818      Hill-Murray                         998.6830   Hill-Murray                    
371.351       997.7516      Maple Grove                         998.0272   Andover                        
215.856       996.8454      Eagan                               997.5359   MapleGrove                     
215.545       996.8430      Andover                             997.3760   Breck                          
208.42        996.7869      Roseau                              997.1979   EdenPrairie                    
180.315       996.5451      Blaine                              997.1265   Warroad                        
179.83        996.5406      Brainerd/Little Falls               997.0540   Wayzata                        
174.815       996.4934      Eden Prairie                        997.0459   Blaine                         
157.287       996.3171      Wayzata                             997.0024   Minnetonka                     
154.576       996.2881      Forest Lake                         996.9276   Eagan                          
150.031       996.2383      Farmington                          996.9224   Farmington                     
148.88        996.2255      Breck                               996.8799   ForestLake                     
110.795       995.7326      Minnetonka                          996.6332   LakevilleSouth                 
108.414       995.6964      Warroad                             996.3317   Roseau                         
101.43        995.5854      Lakeville South                     996.0240   LakevilleNorth                 
72.065        995.0156      Alexandria                          995.7952   Shakopee                       
69.474        994.9546      Lakeville North                     995.7814   Brainerd/LittleFalls           
63.727        994.8108      Red Wing                            995.3646   ElkRiver/Zimmerman             
63.299        994.7995      St. Paul United                     995.3186   Anoka                          
62.646        994.7823      St. Cloud                           995.2747   WhiteBearLake                  
62.222        994.7710      Shakopee                            995.2552   AppleValley                    
52.674        994.4935      Thief River Falls                   995.2408   St.PaulUnited                  
51.692        994.4621      Grand Rapids/Greenway               995.0953   Cretin-DerhamHall              
51.476        994.4551      White Bear Lake                     995.0735   MoundsView                     
50.385        994.4195      Mounds View                         994.9309   Eastview                       
45.297        994.2422      North Wright County                 994.7404   GrandRapids/Greenway           
44.619        994.2171      South St Paul                       994.7356   Alexandria                     
38.878        993.9878      Elk River/Zimmerman                 994.7256   HolyFamily/Waconia             
32.299        993.6792      Prior Lake                          994.7092   Burnsville                     
31.14         993.6184      Cretin-Derham Hall                  994.7025   SouthStPaul                    
30.356        993.5760      Rogers                              994.6750   Rogers                         
30.052        993.5592      Holy Family/Waconia                 994.6287   NorthWrightCounty              
29.095        993.5054      Hopkins/St. Louis Park              994.5729   Hopkins/St.LouisPark           
28.568        993.4750      Apple Valley                        994.3919   RedWing                        
28.492        993.4705      Burnsville                          994.3641   St.Cloud                       
27.212        993.3941      Park of Cottage Grove               994.3092   PriorLake                      
26.355        993.3408      Anoka                               994.1167   ThiefRiverFalls                
23.561        993.1544      East Grand Forks                    994.0139   ChamplinPark/CoonRapids        
23.403        993.1432      Rochester Mayo                      994.0123   Proctor/Hermantown             
23.272        993.1339      Duluth Marshall                     994.0115   Chaska/Chanhassen              
22.023        993.0421      Sartell/Sauk Rapids                 993.9117   ParkofCottageGrove             
20.423        992.9167      Chaska/Chanhassen                   993.7953   EastRidge                      
20.194        992.8980      Eastview                            993.6949   Benilde-St.Margaret's          
20.069        992.8876      Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC            993.6498   Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC       
19.948        992.8776      Mahtomedi                           993.5670   DodgeCounty                    
19.193        992.8134      Delano/Rockford                     993.5566   NewPrague                      
18.642        992.7650      New Prague                          993.5053   Stillwater                     
18.048        992.7112      Champlin Park/Coon Rapids           993.4932   Mahtomedi                      
17.27         992.6379      East Ridge                          993.4336   RochesterLourdes               
16.795        992.5915      Proctor/Hermantown                  993.4024   Delano/Rockford                
16.424        992.5544      Northfield                          993.3427   EastGrandForks                 
15.277        992.4341      Dodge County                        993.3032   DuluthMarshall                 
14.875        992.3898      New Ulm                             993.0876   NewUlm                         
14.064        992.2966      Stillwater                          993.0835   Sartell/SaukRapids             
12.943        992.1586      Hutchinson                          992.9468   Orono                          
12.329        992.0778      Fergus Falls                        992.9232   Hutchinson                     
12.096        992.0461      Benilde-St. Margaret's              992.7808   Northfield                     
12.001        992.0330      Rochester Lourdes                   992.7204   FergusFalls                    
11.925        992.0224      Princeton                           992.6794   SpringLakePark                 
9.199         991.5913      Owatonna                            992.6770   Princeton                      
8.837         991.5247      St. Francis/North Branch            992.5844   Buffalo                        
8.474         991.4550      Moorhead                            992.4999   Roseville                      
7.803         991.3181      Orono                               992.4884   BloomingtonJefferson           
7.581         991.2701      Buffalo                             992.4711   St.Francis/NorthBranch         
7.221         991.1894      Duluth                              992.4365   Duluth                         
7.058         991.1515      Bloomington Jefferson               992.4143   Hibbing/Chisholm               
6.838         991.0989      International Falls                 992.3887   Cloquet-Esko-Carlton           
6.758         991.0794      River Lakes                         992.0424   RiverLakes                     
6.552         991.0280      Spring Lake Park                    991.9113   MoundWestonka                  
5.541         990.7499      Willmar                             991.8100   RochesterMayo                  
5.312         990.6799      Cloquet-Esko-Carlton                991.7477   Owatonna                       
5.071         990.6028      Hibbing/Chisholm                    991.7469   Moorhead                       
4.745         990.4926      Faribault                           991.6211   Willmar                        
3.921         990.1762      Mound Westonka                      991.5862   InternationalFalls             
3.496         989.9860      Roseville                           991.3386   Hastings                       
3.303         989.8919      Hastings                            991.1003   Minneapolis                    
3.059         989.7646      Totino-Grace                        991.0936   Simley                         
2.956         989.7079      Minneapolis                         990.9998   NorthSt.Paul/Tartan            
2.946         989.7022      Moose Lake Area                     990.9997   MooseLakeArea                  
2.504         989.4328      Minnehaha United                    990.9748   Totino-Grace                   
2.287         989.2826      Chisago Lakes                       990.6893   HolyAngels                     
2.062         989.1111      Simley                              990.6227   Faribault                      
1.911         988.9851      Holy Angels                         990.4136   Osseo/ParkCenter               
1.826         988.9098      North St. Paul/Tartan               990.3717   ChisagoLakes                   
1.781         988.8684      Rosemount                           990.1005   Irondale                       
1.652         988.7439      Irondale                            989.9737   MinnehahaUnited                
1.597         988.6878      Osseo/Park Center                   989.8915   Rosemount                      
1.531         988.6180      Marshall                            989.7433   HenrySibley                    
1.407         988.4781      Mankato West                        989.2101   RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Cooper    
1.37          988.4340      Mankato East                        989.1288   Marshall                       
1.139         988.1284      Henry Sibley                        988.9533   Woodbury                       
1.034         987.9683      Eveleth-Gilbert                     988.8729   NorthShore                     
0.957         987.8403      Prairie Centre                      988.5884   PrairieCentre                  
0.877         987.6959      Luverne                             988.5163   Bemidji                        
0.873         987.6883      Robbinsdale Armstrong/Cooper        988.3260   MankatoEast                    
0.824         987.5928      Woodbury                            988.2659   MankatoWest                    
0.7           987.3231      North Shore                         988.2260   Eveleth-Gilbert                
0.679         987.2727      Northern Lakes                      988.2109   NorthernLakes                  
0.656         987.2157      Rochester John Marshall             988.1678   Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato       
0.654         987.2107      Minnesota River                     987.8830   DetroitLakes                   
0.611         987.0983      Austin                              987.5963   Luverne                        
0.587         987.0320      Detroit Lakes                       987.0018   MinnesotaRiver                 
0.391         986.3606      Bemidji                             986.7609   RochesterJohnMarshall          
0.271         985.7552      Windom                              986.7401   Austin                         
0.245         985.5887      Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato            986.1140   St.PaulBlades                  
0.227         985.4628      Albert Lea                          985.7416   Waseca                         
0.176         985.0429      Waseca                              985.7339   Windom                         
0.163         984.9163      St. Paul Blades                     984.8809   AlbertLea                      
0.134         984.5932      Rochester Century                   984.0319   RochesterCentury                            
0.123         984.4520      Worthington                         983.4492   ParkRapids                     
0.037         982.4734      Park Rapids                         983.3336   Crookston                      
0.022         981.6184      Crookston                           982.6323   Worthington                    
0.02          981.4617      Fairmont                            980.0510   MorrisArea/BensonArea          
0.007         979.7377      Morris Area/Benson Area             980.0361   Fairmont                       
                                                                          

ghshockeyfan
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Post by ghshockeyfan » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:11 pm

Some clarification on KRACH methodology and what it aims to accomplish.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/krach.php

Nothing about KRACH as published here is aimed at specific future score prediction, confidence intervals, margins of error, etc.

ghshockeyfan
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QRF

Post by ghshockeyfan » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:16 pm

QRF is the mshsl recognized computer ranking for potential consideration in section seeding. It may be interesting to see how it compares to the others and specifically in predicting basic W/L results in sections irrespective of final score differential, etc.

ghshockeyfan
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Section prediction winner is...

Post by ghshockeyfan » Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:40 am

LSQ 81 of 101 section games predicted correct result. (Winner, didn't look at goal diff or anything else)

Coaches, KRACH, and QRF all tied for second with 79 of 101.

All but 13 of the 101 games had prediction alignment across all four ranking/seeding.

In those 13 games, LSQ was right 7 times as opposed to 5 by the three others, thus the difference above.

This was a quick check so it's possible I may have missed something but thought it was worth posting.

zooomx
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Re: Section prediction winner is...

Post by zooomx » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:11 am

ghshockeyfan wrote:LSQ 81 of 101 section games predicted correct result. (Winner, didn't look at goal diff or anything else)

Coaches, KRACH, and QRF all tied for second with 79 of 101.

All but 13 of the 101 games had prediction alignment across all four ranking/seeding.

In those 13 games, LSQ was right 7 times as opposed to 5 by the three others, thus the difference above.

This was a quick check so it's possible I may have missed something but thought it was worth posting.
It would be interesting to see what the KRACH rankings were after the regular season. There were a fair amount of regular season games since the last KRACH posting. If you are using up to date LSQ rankings and comparing to KRACH rankings that were stale, then your data is flawed and this may explain the differential between the two.

The other interesting observation. I think the coaches rankings are no longer significantly different than statistical rankings as coaches monitor these much more closely and probably use this data to help with their rankings.

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Re: Section prediction winner is...

Post by ghshockeyfan » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:20 am

zooomx wrote:
ghshockeyfan wrote:LSQ 81 of 101 section games predicted correct result. (Winner, didn't look at goal diff or anything else)

Coaches, KRACH, and QRF all tied for second with 79 of 101.

All but 13 of the 101 games had prediction alignment across all four ranking/seeding.

In those 13 games, LSQ was right 7 times as opposed to 5 by the three others, thus the difference above.

This was a quick check so it's possible I may have missed something but thought it was worth posting.
It would be interesting to see what the KRACH rankings were after the regular season. There were a fair amount of regular season games since the last KRACH posting. If you are using up to date LSQ rankings and comparing to KRACH rankings that were stale, then your data is flawed and this may explain the differential between the two.

The other interesting observation. I think the coaches rankings are no longer significantly different than statistical rankings as coaches monitor these much more closely and probably use this data to help with their rankings.
Agreed on both items.

I did take the last ranking from each after regular season completion. I guess I didn't post that for KRACH but can. Entirely agree that else it wouldn't be the best comparison.

And, I know the coaches look at the computer rankings when they seed sections, so, that essentially supports your point.

LSQRANK
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Post by LSQRANK » Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:10 am

I finished up the rest of the section play-off games and filled in the table above. Wish I had more time to look at more details of the patterns between how the MSHSL seedings faired against the computer ratings. Based on the MSHSL seedings, were there more upsets than usual this season? Also, there is a fellow over near Milwaukee that performs a rating on the WIS PREP HS hockey, which he calls STAK RANK. I'm going to ask him to run the Minnesota girls data for us to see what he comes up with. BTW, to compute the transformed KRACH values, I plotted the regular KRACH scale (Y-axis) vs. LSQRANK (X-axis) and then computed a best fitting curve of the form Y = A X^b where A = 988.68 +/- 0.056729 and b = 0.0016734 +/- 1.7885E-005. Substitute the regular KRACH rating value into X the get the transformed KRACH value.

LSQRANK
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Re: MSHSL Seedings vs Computer (KRACH & LSQRANK)

Post by LSQRANK » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:34 pm

Code: Select all

MSHSL Girls Hockey Playoff Results Comparison 
---------------------------------------------                                    
Updated&#58;  WEDS Feb 24, 2018  ; sectional play-offs for State Tournament seedings completed.                                                                 

The marigin of error &#40;MOE&#41; for KRACH in this analysis is unknown because it is either intentionally
not published or the folks who use this software are unable or unaware how to recover this
staistical value to qualifying the precicison of their rating profile.  The MOE for the 
LSQRANK rating profile values is approximately +/- two-thirds of a goal &#40;0.6667&#41; at this stage in the season,
which will be assummed that the KRACH has a similar value in magnitude.

For the purposes of comparison, tallys for the two computer rating systems and the human based MSHSL seeding 
were computed on a per game basis as follows&#58;

MSHSL SEEDING&#58;   +1 point awarded  for every higher seed defeating a lower  seed; 
                  0 point assigned for every lower  seed defeating a higher seed.
				 
KRACH & LSQRANK&#58; +1	point awarded  for every numerically higher rated team defeating a lower rated team.
                 +1 point awarded  for predicting a "Tie", i.e. the following 2 criteria was met&#58;
                         &#40;1&#41; the predicted score differential calculated using its associated rating profile was smaller than the MOE, and 
                         &#40;2&#41; the observed  score differential &#40;actual score&#41; was a 1 goal game typical of an overtime victory.
						 
                          An extreme example of this situation occurred in game #49 &#40;below&#41;, a 1st round matchup between the 4th and 5th seeded teams
                          in section 7A, Cloquet-Esko-Carlton and Hibbing/Chisholm, respectively.  KRACH & LSQRANK both predicted a delta of nearly
                          zero, 0.0771 by KRACH and -0.0303 by LSQRANK. Since this was a play-off game, multiple OT periods are played untill a winner
                          is determined.  H/C beat CEC at the 9&#58;00 mark in OT4. Shots were 37 to 37!!
						  						 
                  0 point for all other outcomes
				  
				  
Root-Mean-Square-Errors &#40;RMSE&#41; were computed for both KRACH & LSQRANK.  The RMSE is a numerical value that quantifies the closest of
the rating profile's predicted score differentials to that of the observed corrected score. Raw scores are corrected for non-ESG's and ENG's.
RMSE is computed as the square root of the sum of the square of the error differences divided by the total number of games observed.

RMSE =  SQRT&#91; SUM&#40;SQR&#40;delta" - delta'&#41;&#41;/&#40;Num_Games&#41; &#93;				  
				  
				  
                      Points
                      -------
Current Tally    GP   +1     0     %    RMSE
--------------   ---  ---  ---   ----   ----
MSHSL SEEDING &#58;  123   94  29    76.4   
KRACH         &#58;  123  102  21    82.9   2.48
LSQRANK       &#58;  123  105  18    85.4   2.20

                                           U = TIE &#40;delta' << MOE, i.e. Undetermined, zero is contained in 95% C.I.&#41;
                                           0 = BAD &#40;outside   of 95% C.I.&#41; or lower  seed won
                                           1 = OK  &#40;contained in 95% C.I.&#41; or higher seed won
																					 
Play-In          = Rnd 0                  delta" = observed  CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                                                          
Quarter-Finals   = RND 1                  delta' = predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                GAME
Semi-Finals      = RND 2                                                                            PREDICTION 
Sectional-Finals = RND 3                  MOE = Margin of Error  = 0.67 goal                        ----------
State_Quarter    = RND 4                                                                                     L 
State_Semis      = RND 5                   C.I = &#91;delta +/- MOE &#93;                                            S 
State_Finals     = RND 6               95% C.I = &#91;delta +/- 0.67&#93;                                      M  K  Q 
                                                                                                       S  R  R 
                                                                     E   P   S   E   P                 H  A  A 
                 MSHSL                             TRANS             S   P   H   N   I     RAW  CORR   S  C  N 
##  RND  SEC CLS SEED  TEAM                        KRACH   LSQRANK   G   G   G   G   M   SCORE  SCORE  L  H  K  Notes  
==  ===  === === ====  ======================  ========= =========  ==  ==  ==  ==  ==   =====  =====  =  =  =  ========
1    0    1   AA    8  RochesterJohnMarshall    987.2157  986.7675   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.00   0  0  0  REG_TIME                  
                    9  RochesterCentury         984.5932  984.0385   2   0   0   0   0      2   2.00   
                                                  2.6225    2.7290                   delta" =  -1.00 
															  
2    1    1   AA    1  Farmington               996.2383  996.9257  14   0   0   0   2     14  14.00   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    9  RochesterCentury         984.5932  984.0385   1   0   0   0   0      1   1.00            1&#58;59_2nd       
                                                 11.6451   12.8872                   delta" =  13.00
					                                               
3    1    1   AA    4  LakevilleNorth           994.9546  996.0242   0   0   1   0   4      1   1.25   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Northfield	            992.5544  992.7882   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.00
                                                  2.4002     3.236                   delta" =   1.25
					                                               
4    1    1   AA    3  RochesterMayo            993.1432  991.8155   2   0   0   0  17       2  2.00   0  0  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Owatonna                 991.5913  991.7560   3   0   0   0   8       3  3.00   
                                                  1.5519    0.0595 < MOE              delta" =  -1.00
					                                               
5    1    1   AA    2  LakevilleSouth           995.5854  996.6326   4   2   0   0   2       6  5.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  DodgeCounty              992.4341  993.5716   1   0   0   0   6       1  1.0
                                                  3.1513     3.061                   delta" =   4.6
					                                               
6    1    2   AA    1  EdenPrairie              996.4934  997.1945   2   1   1   0   4       4  4.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  BloomingtonJefferson     991.1515  992.4950   0   0   0   0  12       0  0.0
                                                  5.3419    4.6995                   delta" =   4.05
					                                               
7    1    2   AA    4  HolyFamily/Waconia       993.5592  994.7287   0   1   0   0   8       1  0.8    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  PriorLake                993.6792  994.3075   2   0   0   0   4       2  2.0
                                                 -0.1200    0.4212 < MOE              delta" =  -1.2 
					                                               
8    1    2   AA    3  Shakopee                 994.7710  995.7956   3   0   0   0   6       3  3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  NewPrague                992.7650  993.5615   0   0   0   0   2       2  2.0  
                                                  2.0060    2.2341                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
9    1    2   AA    2  Minnetonka               995.7326  996.8947   2   0   0   0   4       2  2.0    1  1  1  OT1_2&#58;43 
                    7  Chaska/Chanhassen        992.9167  994.0125   1   0   0   0   2       1  1.0
                                                  2.8159    2.8822                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
10   1    3   AA    1  Eagan                    996.8454  996.9329   3   2   0   0   2      5   4.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  Rosemount                988.8684  989.8959   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  7.9770     7.037                   delta" =   4.6
					                                               
11   1    3   AA    4  Burnsville               993.4705  994.7137   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    5  EastRidge                992.6379  993.8037   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    
                                                  0.8326    0.9100                   delta" =  -2.0
					                                               
12   1    3   AA    3  ParkofCottageGrove       993.3941  993.9166   1   0   0   0   2      1   1.0    0  0  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Eastview                 992.8980  994.9341   3   0   0   1   2      4   3.0    
                                                  0.4961   -1.0175                   delta" =  -2.0
					                                               
13   1    3   AA    2  AppleValley              993.4750  995.2580   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  OT1_7&#58;07
                    7  Hastings                 989.8919  991.3438   1   1   0   0   4      2   1.8
                                                  3.5831    3.9142                   delta" =   1.2
					                                               
14   1    4   AA    1  Hill-Murray              998.1818  998.6935  11   2   0   0   8     13  12.6    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    8  Irondale                 988.7439  990.1233   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             12&#58;16_1st
                                                  9.4379    8.5702                   delta" =  12.6
					                                               
15   1    4   AA    4  Stillwater               992.2966  993.5057   0   1   0   0  10      1   0.8    0  0  0  OT3_4&#58;00
                    5  Roseville                989.986   992.5018   1   1   0   0  12      2   1.8
                                                  2.3106    1.0039                   delta" =  -1.0
					                                               
16   1    4   AA    3  WhiteBearLake            994.4551  995.2827   6   0   0   0   4      6   6.0    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  NorthSt.Paul/Tartan      988.9098  991.0060   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0             2&#58;35_2nd 
                                                  5.5453    4.2767                   delta" =   6.0
					                                               
17   1    4   AA    2  MoundsView               994.4195  995.0818   5   0   0   0   2      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Woodbury                 987.5928  988.9581   0   0   0   0   0      0   0.0   
                                                  6.8267    6.1237                   delta" =   5.0
					                                               
18   1    5   AA    4  Rogers                   993.5760  994.6876   4   0   0   0   0      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  ChamplinPark/CoonRapids  992.7112  994.0376   2   0   0   0   0      2   2.0  
                                                  0.8648    0.6500  < MOE            delta" =   2.0
					                                               
19   1    5   AA    3  Blaine                   996.5451  997.1775   1   1   0   0   6      2   1.8    1  1  1  OT1_7&#58;30
                    6  Anoka                    993.3408  995.3465   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  3.2043    1.8310                   delta" =   0.8
					                                               
20   1    5   AA    2  MapleGrove               997.7516  997.5522   4   0   0   0   8      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  SpringLakePark           991.0280  992.7017   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0
                                                  6.7236    4.8505                   delta" =   4.0
					                                               
21   0    6   AA    8  RobbinsdaleArmstrong/C   987.6883  989.2443   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8    1  0  0  OT2_6&#58;28
                    9  Osseo/ParkCenter         988.6878  990.4340   1   0   0   0  12      1   1.0
                                                 -0.9995   -1.1897                   delta" =   0.8
										                           
22   1    6   AA    1  Edina                    999.4273 1000.0000  10   4   0   0   4     14  13.2    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    8  RobbinsdaleArmstrong/C   987.6883  989.2443   0   0   0   0  13      0   0.0             1&#58;58_2nd                    
                                                 11.7390   10.7557                   delta" =  13.2
					                                               
23   1    6   AA    4  Cretin-DerhamHall        993.6184  995.0980   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Hopkins/St.LouisPark     993.5054  994.5776   2   0   0   0   4      2   2.0
                                                  0.1130    0.5204 < MOE             delta" =   1.0
					                                               
24   1    6   AA    3  Wayzata                  996.3171  997.1089   1   1   1   0  14      3   3.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Benilde-St.Margaret's    992.0461  993.6996   2   0   0   0  12      2   2.0
                                                  4.2710    3.4093                   delta" =   1.05
					                                               
25   1    6   AA    2  Blake                   1000.0000  999.2350   8   0   2   0   6     10  10.50   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    7  MinnehahaUnited          989.4328  989.9771   0   0   0   0   0      0   0.0             6&#58;12_2nd
                                                 10.5672    9.2579                   delta" =  10.50
					                                               
26   1    7   AA    1  Andover                  996.843   998.0472   5   1   0   1   4      7   5.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  Duluth                   991.1894  992.4445   2   0   0   0   4      2   2.0
                                                  5.6536    5.6027                   delta" =   3.6
				                                              
27   1    7   AA    4  ElkRiver/Zimmerman       993.9878  995.3898   3   1   1   0   6      5   5.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC 992.8876  993.6594   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0
                                                  1.1002    1.7304                   delta" =   4.05
					                                               
28   1    7   AA    3  GrandRapids/Greenway     994.4621  994.7515   5   0   0   0  12      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  St.Francis/NorthBranch   991.5247  992.4816   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  2.9374    2.2699                   delta" =   4.0
					                                               
29   1    7   AA    2  ForestLake               996.2881  996.8850   1   1   1   0   8      3   3.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Princeton                992.0224  992.6846   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0
                                                  4.2657    4.2004                   delta" =   2.05
					                                               
30   1    8   AA    1  Roseau                   996.7869  996.3239   2   1   1   0   4      4   4.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  Bemidji                  986.3606  988.5189   1   0   0   0  12      1   1.0 
                                                 10.4263    7.8050                   delta" =   3.05
					                                               
31   1    8   AA    4  St.Cloud                 994.7823  994.3708   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Sartell/SaukRapids       993.0421  993.0878   0   0   0   0   2      6   0.0
                                                  1.7402    1.2830                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
32   1    8   AA    3  NorthWrightCounty        994.2422  994.6357   0   1   0   0  15      1   0.8    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    6  Moorhead                 991.455   991.7495   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    
                                                  2.7872    2.8862                   delta" =  -2.2   
					                                               
33   1    8   AA    2  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.5406  995.7778   6   0   0   0   6      6   6.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Buffalo                  991.2701  992.5919   1   0   0   0   1      1   1.0
                                                  5.2705    3.1859                   delta" =   5.0
							                                       
34   1    1    A    4  Austin                   987.0983  986.7468   4   1   0   0   8      5   4.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  AlbertLea                985.4628  984.8881   2   1   0   0   6      3   2.8
                                                  1.6355    1.8587                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
35   1    1    A    3  Faribault                990.4926  990.6293  10   2   0   0   2     12  11.6    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  Waseca                   985.0429  985.7478   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0             6&#58;58_2nd
                                                  5.4497    4.8815                   delta" =  11.6
					                                               
36   1    2    A    4  MoundWestonka            990.1762  991.9184   5   3   0   0  10      8   7.4    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  MinnesotaRiver           987.2107  987.0076   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8             2&#58;29_3rd
                                                  2.9655    4.9108                   delta" =   6.6
					                                               
37   1    2    A    3  NewUlm                   992.3898  993.0934   5   0   0   0   6      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato 985.5887  988.1736   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0
                                                  6.8011    4.9198                   delta" =   4.0
					                                               
38   1    3    A    4  Luverne                  987.6959  987.6031   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Worthington              984.4520  982.6384   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  3.2439    4.9647                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
39   1    3    A    3  MankatoEast              988.4340  988.3336   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  OT1_2&#58;41
                    6  Windom                   985.7552  985.7399   2   0   0   0   0      2   2.0
                                                  2.6788    2.5937                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
40   1    3    A    2  MankatoWest              988.4781  988.2723   9   0   0   0   4      9   9.0    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    7  Fairmont                 981.4617  980.0428   0   0   0   0   0      0   0.0             15&#58;02_2nd
                                                  7.0164    8.2295                   delta" =   9.0
					                                               
41   1    4    A    4  Simley                   989.1111  991.0898   3   1   0   0   8      4   3.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  HenrySibley              988.1284  989.7518   1   1   0   0  14      2   1.8
                                                  0.9827     1.338                   delta" =   2.0
					                                               
42   1    4    A    3  Mahtomedi                992.8776  993.4987   5   0   0   0   4      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  St.PaulBlades            984.9163  986.1216   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0
                                                  7.9613    7.3771                   delta" =   5.0
					                                               
43   1    5    A    4  Minneapolis              989.7079  991.1074   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    5  ChisagoLakes             989.2826  990.3799   1   2   0   0   4      3   2.6    
                                                  0.4253    0.7275                   delta" =  -2.6
					                                               
44   1    5    A    3  Totino-Grace             989.7646  990.9973   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    6  HolyAngels               988.9851  990.6957   2   1   0   0   4      3   2.8    
                                                  0.7795    0.3016 < MO              delta" =  -2.8
					                                               
45   1    6    A    4  Willmar                  990.7499  991.6271   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  PrairieCentre            987.8403  988.5939   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0   
                                                  2.9096    3.0332                   delta" =   0.8
					                                               
46   1    6    A    3  RiverLakes               991.0794   992.046   2   0   0   0  13      2   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  NorthernLakes            987.2727  988.2167   1   0   0   0  18      1   1.0
                                                  3.8067    3.8293                   delta" =   1.0
					                                               
47   1    6    A    2  FergusFalls              992.0778  992.7242   9   1   0   0   2     10   9.8    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    7  MorrisArea/BensonArea    979.7377  980.0565   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0             5&#58;23_2nd
                                                 12.3401   12.6677                   delta" =   9.8
					                                               
48   1    7    A    1  DuluthMarshall           993.1339  993.3110   2   2   0   1  12      5   3.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    8  NorthShore               987.3231  988.8812   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.0   
                                                  5.8108    4.4298                   delta" =   2.6
					                                               
49   1    7    A    4  Cloquet-Esko-Carlton     990.6799  992.3972   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0    0  1  1  OT4_9&#58;00   
                    5  Hibbing/Chisholm         990.6028  992.4275   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0             shots 37_vs_37 !!
                                                  0.0771   -0.0303  < MOE            delta" =  -1.0
					                                               
50   1    7    A    3  InternationalFalls       991.0989  991.5933   1   1   1   0   6      3   3.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  MooseLakeArea            989.7022  991.0085   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0 
                                                  1.3967    0.5848 < MOE             delta" =   2.05
					                                               
51   1    7    A    2  Proctor/Hermantown       992.5915  994.0229   2   0   1   0   8      3   3.25   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    7  Eveleth-Gilbert          987.9683  988.2348   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0 
                                                  4.6232    5.7881                   delta" =   3.25
					                                               
52   1    8    A    4  DetroitLakes             987.032   987.8866   4   0   0   0   6      4   4.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME   
                    5  ParkRapids               982.4734  983.4536   2   3   0   0   8      5   4.4             Big_Upset
                                                  4.5586     4.433                   delta" =  -0.4
					                                               
53   1    8    A    3  EastGrandForks           993.1544  993.3453   6   0   0   0   2      6   6.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Crookston                981.6184  983.3380   1   0   0   0   2      1   1.0
                                                 11.5360   10.0073                   delta" =   5.0
												 
54   2    3   AA    1  Eagan                    996.8454  996.9329   1   1   0   0   6      2   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  EastRidge                992.6379  993.8037   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0
                                                  4.2075    3.1292                   delta" =   1.8

55   2    7   AA    1  Andover                  996.8430  998.0472   2   1   0   0   8      3   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  ElkRiver/Zimmerman       993.9878  995.3898   0   2   0   0   6      2   1.6    
                                                  2.8552    2.6574                   delta" =   1.2
												  
56   2    3   AA    2  AppleValley              993.4750  995.2580   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    5  EastRidge                992.6379  993.8037   1   0   0   0   2      1   1.0    
                                                  0.8371    1.4543                   delta" =  -1.0

57   2    7    A    1  DuluthMarshall           993.1339  993.3110   1   0   0   0  12      1   1.0	   0  0  0  OT1_0&#58;26									  
                    5  Hibbing/Chisholm         990.6028  992.4275   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0
                                                  2.5311    0.8835                   delta" =  -1.0    

58   2    7   AA    2  ForestLake               996.2881  996.8850   2   0   0   1  14      3   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  GrandRapids/Greenway     994.4621  994.7515   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0
                                                  1.8260    2.1335                   delta" =   2.0    

59   2    1    A    1  RedWing                  994.8108  994.3981   8   2   0   0   4     10   9.6    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    4  Austin                   987.0983  986.7468   0   0   0   0  16      0   0.0             8&#58;49_2nd
                                                  7.7125    7.6513                   delta" =   9.6

60   2    1    A    2  RochesterLourdes         992.0330  993.4413   2   2   2   0  10      6   6.1    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    3  Faribault                990.4926  990.6293   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0             15&#58;06_3rd
                                                  1.5404    2.8120                   delta" =   6.1

61   2    3    A    1  Marshall                 988.6180  989.1330   6   0   0   0   4      6   6.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME                                                               
                    4  Luverne                  987.6959  987.6031   3   0   0   0   0      3   3.0
                                                  0.9221    1.5299                   delta" =   3.0

62   2    3    A    2  MankatoWest              988.4781  988.2723   1   5   0   0   8      6   5.0    1  1  1  OT1_1&#58;45
                    3  MankatoEast              988.4340  988.3336   3   2   0   0  14      5   4.6
                                                  0.0441   -0.0613 < MOE             delta" =   0.4

63   2    7    A    2  Proctor/Hermantown       992.5915  994.0229   1   1   0   0   4      2   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  InternationalFalls       991.0989  991.5933   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8
                                                  1.4926    2.4296                   delta" =   1.0

64   2    1   AA    1  Farmington               996.2383  996.9257   4   1   1   0  16      6   6.05   1  1  1  RUN_TIME   
                    4  LakevilleNorth           994.9546  996.0242   0   0   0   0  16      0   0.0             11&#58;59_3rd
                                                  1.2837    0.9015                   delta" =   6.05

65   2    1   AA    2  LakevilleSouth           995.5854  996.6326   6   1   0   0   4      7   6.8    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  Owatonna                 991.5913  991.7560   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0             1&#58;06_3rd
                                                  3.9941    4.8766                   delta" =   6.8

66   2    8    A    1  Warroad                  995.6964  997.1227  13   0   2   0   6     15  15.5    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  ParkRapids               982.4734  983.4536   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0             12&#58;31_1st
                                                 13.2230   13.6691                   delta" =  15.5

67   2    8    A    2  ThiefRiverFalls          994.4935  994.1193   1   1   0   0  12      2   1.8    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  EastGrandForks           993.1544  993.3453   5   0   0   0   8      5   5.0
                                                  1.3391    0.7740                   delta" =  -3.2

68   2    4   AA    1  Hill-Murray              998.1818  998.6935   6   0   0   0   8      6   6.0    1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  Roseville                989.9860  992.5018   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             12&#58;59_3rd
                                                  8.1958    6.1917                   delta" =   6.0

69   2    5    A    2  Orono                    991.3181  992.9523   3   0   0   0  14      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  HolyAngels               988.9851  990.6957   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0
                                                  2.3330    2.2566                   delta" =   3.0

70   2    5   AA    1  Centennial               999.3528  999.0344   4   1   0   0  10      5   4.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Rogers                   993.5760  994.6876   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8
                                                  5.7768    4.3468                   delta" =   4.0

71   2    8   AA    2  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.5406  995.7778   5   0   1   0   8      6   6.25   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    6  Moorhead                 991.4550  991.7495   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             4&#58;07_3rd
                                                  5.0856    4.0283                   delta" =   6.25

72   2    2   AA    1  EdenPrairie              996.4934  997.1945   4   2   2   0  12      8   8.10   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  PriorLake                993.6792  994.3075   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8             16&#58;29_3rd
                                                  2.8142    2.8870                   delta" =   6.30

73   2    4    A    1  St.PaulUnited            994.7995  995.2424   5   0   0   0   2      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Simley                   989.1111  991.0898   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.0
                                                  5.6884	4.1526                   delta" =   5.0

74   2    2    A    2  Hutchinson               992.1586  992.9285   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  NewUlm                   992.3898  993.0934   1   1   0   2   2      4   1.8
                                                 -0.2312   -0.1649 < MOE             delta" =  -0.8 

75   2    6    A    1  Alexandria               995.0156  994.7384   2   0   0   0  10      2   2.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Willmar                  990.7499  991.6271   0   1   0   0   4      1   0.8
                                                  4.2657    3.1113                   delta" =   1.2

76   2    6    A    2  FergusFalls              992.0778  992.7242   2   0   0   0   2      2   2.0    0  0  1  OT1_0&#58;57
                    3  RiverLakes               991.0794  992.0460   2   1   0   0   0      3   2.8
                                                  0.9984    0.6782 < MOE             delta" =  -0.8

77   2    8   AA    1  Roseau                   996.7869  996.3239   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  St.Cloud                 994.7823  994.3708   2   0   0   0   8      2   2.0
                                                  2.0046    1.9531                   delta" =   1.0

78   2    4   AA    2  MoundsView               994.4195  995.0818   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  WhiteBearLake            994.4551  995.2827   3   0   0   0   2      3   3.0
                                                 -0.0356   -0.2009  <  MOE           delta" =  -2.0

79   2    2    A    1  Delano/Rockford          992.8134  993.4092   4   0   0   0   4      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  MoundWestonka            990.1762  991.9184   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0
                                                  2.6372    1.4908                   delta" =   3.0

80   2    5    A    1  Breck                    996.2255  997.3235   9   0   1   0   8     10  10.25   1  1  1  RUN_TIME  
                    5  ChisagoLakes             989.2826  990.3799   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0             10&#58;55_2nd
                                                  6.9429    6.9436                   delta" =  10.25 

81   2    5   AA    2  MapleGrove               997.7516  997.5522   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  Blaine                   996.5451  997.1775   3   0   0   0   6      3   3.0
                                                  1.2065    0.3747 < MOE             delta" =  -2.0

82   2    2   AA    2  Minnetonka               995.7326  996.8947   1   0   0   0   4      1   1.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  Shakopee                 994.7710  995.7956   2   0   0   0   2      2   2.0
                                                  0.9616    1.0991                   delta" =  -1.0 

83   2    4    A    2  SouthStPaul              994.2171  994.7079   4   1   0   1   4      5   3.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  Mahtomedi                992.8776  993.4987   3   0   0   0   6      3   3.0
                                                  1.3395    1.2092                   delta" =   0.8

84   2    6   AA    1  Edina                    999.4273 1000.0000   4   1   0   0   8      5   4.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    4  Cretin-DerhamHall        993.6184  995.0980   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0
                                                  5.8089    4.9020                   delta" =   4.8

85   2    3   AA    1  Eagan                    996.8454  996.9329   4   0   0   0   4      4   4.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    6  Eastview                 992.8980  994.9341   1   2   0   0   8      3   2.6  
                                                  3.9474    1.9988                   delta" =   1.4

86   2    6   AA    2  Blake                   1000.0000  999.2350   2   1   0   1  10      4   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME 
                    3  Wayzata                  996.3171  997.1089   0   2   0   0   4      2   1.6
                                                  3.6829    2.1261                   delta" =   1.2

87   3    7    A    2  Proctor/Hermantown       992.5915  994.0229   5   0   0   0   8      5   5.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    5  Hibbing/Chisholm         990.6028  992.4275   1   1   0   0   2      2   1.8 
                                                  1.9887    1.5954                   delta" =   3.2

88   3    3    A    1  Marshall                 988.6180  989.1330   1   1   0   0   0      2   1.8    1  1  1  OT1_1&#58;33
                    2  MankatoWest              988.4781  988.2723   1   0   0   0   0      1   1.0
                                                  0.1399    0.8607                   delta" =   0.8

89   3    1   AA    1  Farmington               996.2383  996.9257   3   2   0   0  14      5   4.6    0  1  1  REG_TIME
                    2  LakevilleSouth           995.5854  996.6326   4   1   1   0  14      6   6.05
                                                  0.6529    0.2931 < MOE             delta" =  -1.45 

90   3    7   AA    1  Andover                  996.843   998.0472   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    2  ForestLake               996.2881  996.8850   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  3.9362    2.6924                   delta" =   3.0

91   3    6    A    1  Alexandria               995.0156  994.7384   1   1   0   1  10      3   1.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  RiverLakes               991.0794  992.0460   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0
                                                  3.9362    2.6924                   delta" =   1.8

92   3    8    A    1  Warroad                  995.6964  997.1227   2   1   1   0   6      4   4.05   1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  EastGrandForks           993.1544  993.3453   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  2.5420    3.7774                   delta" =   3.05

93   3    4    A    1  St.PaulUnited            994.7995  995.2424   0   2   0   0  10      2   1.60   1  1  1  OT1_4&#58;55
                    2  SouthStPaul              994.2171  994.7079   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.00
                                                  0.5824    0.5345 < MOE             delta" =   0.60

94   3    1    A    1  RedWing                  994.8108  994.3981   3   1   0   0   4      4   3.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    2  RochesterLourdes         992.0330  993.4413   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0
                                                  2.7770    0.9568                   delta" =   2.8

95   3    2    A    1  Delano/Rockford          992.8134  993.4092   2   0   0   0   8      2   2.0    0  0  0  REG_TIME
                    3  NewUlm                   992.3898  993.0934   4   1   0   0   6      5   4.8
                                                  0.4236	0.3158 < MOE             delta" =  -2.8 

96   3    5    A    1  Breck                    996.2255  997.3235   3   0   0   0   4      3   3.0    1  1  1  OT1_0&#58;56
                    2  Orono                    991.3181  992.9523   1   1   0   0   0      2   1.8
                                                  4.9074    4.3712                   delta" =   1.2

97   3    2   AA    1  EdenPrairie              996.4934  997.1945   2   1   0   0   8      3   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  Shakopee                 994.7710  995.7956   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  1.7224    1.3989                   delta" =   2.8

98   3    4   AA    1  Hill-Murray              998.1818  998.6935   2   2   0   0  10      4   3.6    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  WhiteBearLake            994.4551  995.2827   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0
                                                  3.7267    3.4108                   delta" =   3.6

99   3    5   AA    1  Centennial               999.3528  999.0344   2   1   0   0   4      3   2.8    1  1  1  REG_TIME
                    3  Blaine                   996.5451  997.1775   0   0   0   0   4      0   0.0
                                                  2.8077    1.8569                   delta" =   2.8

100  3    8   AA    1  Roseau                   996.7869  996.3239   0   1   0   0   6      1   0.8    0  1  1  OT3_1&#58;32
                    2  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.5406  995.7778   2   0   0   0  10      2   2.0 
                                                  0.2463    0.5461 < MOE             delta" =  -1.2 

101  3    6   AA    1  Edina                    999.4273 1000.0000   2   2   0   0   8      4   3.6    1  0  1  REG_TIME
                    2  Blake                   1000.0000  999.2350   1   1   0   0  10      2   1.8
                                                 -0.5727    0.7650                   delta" =   1.8

Play-In          = Rnd 0                  delta" = observed  CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                                                          
Quarter-Finals   = RND 1                           predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL                
Semi-Finals      = RND 2                                                                             
Sectional-Finals = RND 3                  MOE = Margin of Error  = 0.67 goal                        
State_Quarter    = RND 4                                                                                     L 
State_Semis      = RND 5                   C.I = &#91;delta +/- MOE &#93;                                            S 
State_Finals     = RND 6               95% C.I = &#91;delta +/- 0.67&#93;                                      M  K  Q   s
                                                                                                       S  R  R   h
                                                                     E   P   S   E   P                 H  A  A   o
                 MSHSL                             TRANS             S   P   H   N   I     RAW  CORR   S  C  N   t   P
##  RND  W/L CLS SEED  TEAM                        KRACH   LSQRANK   G   G   G   G   M   SCORE  SCORE  L  H  K   s   P   Notes  
==  ===  === === ====  ======================  ========= =========  ==  ==  ==  ==  ==   =====  =====  =  =  =  === ===  ==============
102 QTR  W     A    2  Breck                    996.3050  997.1595   7   2   0   0   6      9   8.6    1  1  1   54 2-4  RUN_12&#58;23_2nd 
           L   A    8  Marshall                 989.1339  988.9223   2   0   0   0   8      2   2.0              15 0-3
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           RUN   +7.1711   +8.2372                   delta" =   6.6              69
 
103 QTR    L   A    3  RedWing                  994.8104  994.4037   1   0   0   0  10      1   0.83   0  0  0   24 0-4  EAG_@_16&#58;25_3rd        
         W     A    6  Proctor/Hermantown       992.8189  993.7825   2   0   0   1  10      3   2.00             26 0-4  ENG_@_15&#58;11_3rd   
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                           REG   +1.9915   +0.6212 < MOE             delta" =  -1.17             50
 
104 QTR  W     A    1  Warroad                  996.1836  997.0438   5   0   0   0   6      5   5.00   1  1  1   35 0-1
           L   A    7  NewUlm                   992.9573  992.9509   0   0   0   0   2      0   0.00             20 0-3
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                           REG   +3.2263   +4.0929                   delta" =   5.0              55
 
105 QTR  W     A    4  Alexandria               994.9503  994.4402   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0    1  1  1   18 0-3
           L   A    5  St.PaulUnited            994.9874  995.0856   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0              35 0-4 
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                           REG   -0.0371   -0.6454 < MOE                        1.0              53
                                                                    
106 QTR  W    AA    2  Centennial               999.6622  998.8639   1   1   0   0   6      2   1.8    1  1  1   33 1-5
           L  AA    6  LakevilleSouth           996.0700  996.6627   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0              32 0-3
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG   +3.5922   +2.2012                              0.8              65
 
107 QTR    L  AA    3  Hill-Murray              998.5009  998.7433   1   0   0   0   6      1   1.0    0  0  0   27 0-1
         W    AA    7  Eagan                    996.9765  996.6117   1   1   0   0   2      2   1.8              15
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG   +1.5244   +2.1316                             -0.8              42

108 QTR  W    AA    1  Edina                   1000.0000 1000.0000   2   2   0   0   8      4   3.6    1  1  1   32 2-3
           L  AA    8  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.7836  995.7490   0   0   0   0   8      0   0.0              10
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG   +3.2164   +4.2510                              3.6              42
	
109 QTR    L  AA    4  Andover                  997.2360  997.7869   0   0   0   0   6      0   0.0    0  1  1   29 0-1
         W    AA    5  EdenPrairie              996.5704  997.1954   1   0   0   1   2      2   1.0              31 0-3  ENG_@_15&#58;38_3rd
                                                --------  --------                              ---              ---
                                           REG   +0.6656   +0.5915 < MOE                       -1.0              60
                                                                     
110 SEMI W     A    2  Breck                    996.3050  997.1595   5   1   0   0   8      6   5.8    1  1  1   44 1-6  RUN_@_9&#58;30_3rd
           L   A    6  Proctor/Hermantown       992.8189  993.7825   0   0   0   0  12      0   0.0               9 0-4
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           RUN    3.4861    3.3770                              5.8              53

111 SEMI W     A    1  Warroad                  996.1836  997.0438   5   2   0   0   4      7   6.6    1  1  1   27 2-4  RUN_@_6&#58;27_3rd
           L   A    4  Alexandria               994.9503  994.4402   1   0   0   0   8      1   1.0              13
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           RUN    1.2333    2.6036                              5.6              40

112 SEMI W    AA    2  Centennial               999.6622  998.8639   4   2   0   0  12      6   5.6    1  1  1   23 2-5  RUN_@_10&#58;13_3rd
           L  AA    7  Eagan                    996.9765  996.6117   1   0   0   0  10      1   1.0              23 0-6  ESG_@_13&#58;51_3rd
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    2.6857    2.2522                              4.6              46

113 SEMI W    AA    1  Edina                   1000.0000 1000.0000   3   0   0   1   4      4   3.0    1  1  1   47 0-1  ENG_@_16&#58;57_3rd
           L  AA    5  EdenPrairie              996.5704  997.1954   2   0   0   0   2      2   2.0              15 0-2
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    3.4296    2.8046                              1.0              62
   
114 FINA   L   A    1  Warroad                  996.1836  997.0438   0   2   0   0   8      2   1.6    0  1  1   27 2-3
         W     A    2  Breck                    996.3050  997.1595   3   0   0   0   8      3   3.0              28 0-3  OT1_@_0&#58;08
                                                --------  --------                             ----              --
                                           OT1   -0.1214   -0.1157 < MOE                       -1.4              56

115 FINA W    AA    1  Edina                   1000.0000 1000.0000   1   1   0   0   8      2   1.8    1  1  1   27 1-2
           L  AA    2  Centennial               999.6622  998.8639   0   1   0   0   4      1   0.8              14 1-4
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    0.3378    1.1361                              1.0              41

116 3rd  W     A    4  Alexandria               994.9503  994.4402  1   0   0   0   8       1   1.0    1  1  1   21 0-1  ESG_0&#58;18_2nd
           L   A    6  Proctor/Hermantown       992.8189  993.7825  0   0   0   0   2       0   0.0              18 0-4 
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                           REG    2.1314    0.6577 < MOE                        1.0              39
  
117 3rd    L  AA    5  EdenPrairie              996.5704  997.1954  0   0   0   0  14       0   0.0    0  1  0   31 0-4
         W    AA    7  Eagan                    996.9765  996.6117  2   1   0   0  10       3   2.8              34 1-6
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            REG  -0.4061    0.5837 < MOE                       -2.8              65

118 CONSOL  W  A    3  RedWing                  994.8104  994.4037   6   1   0   0   2      7   6.8    1  1  1   47 1-5  RUN_@_4&#58;42_3rd
            L  A    8  Marshall                 989.1339  988.9223   0   0   0   0  10      0   0.0              21 0-1 
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            RUN   5.6765    5.4814                              6.8              68

119 CONSOL  W  A    5  St.PaulUnited            994.9874  995.0856   3   2   0   0  14      5   4.6    1  1  1   32 2-5
            L  A    7  NewUlm                   992.9573  992.9509   2   0   0   0  12      2   2.0              23 0-6
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            REG   2.0301    2.1347                              2.6              55

120 CONSOL L  AA    3  Hill-Murray              998.5009  998.7433   0   1   0   0  10      1   1.0    0  0  0   40 1-6
           W  AA    6  LakevilleSouth           996.0700  996.6627   3   1   0   0  12      4   3.8              32 1-5             
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            REG   2.4309    2.0806                             -2.8              72
												 
121 CONSOL W  AA    4  Andover                  997.2360  997.7869   4   0   0   0   8      4   4.0    1  1  1   39 0-5  OT1_6&#58;51
           L  AA    8  Brainerd/LittleFalls     996.7836  995.7490   2   1   0   0  12      3   2.8              24 1-3
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            OT1   0.4524    2.0379                              1.2              63

122 CONSOL  L  A    3  RedWing                  994.8104  994.4037   2   0   0   0   6      2   2.0    0  1  1   34 0-7
            W  A    5  St.PaulUnited            994.9874  995.0856   1   1   1   0  14      3   3.05             25 1-3  OT1_PPG_0&#58;42 
                                                --------  --------                              ----             --
                                            OT1  -0.1770   -0.6819                             -1.05             59

123 CONSOL  W  AA   4  Andover                  997.2360  997.7869   5   0   0   0   6      5   5.0    1  1  1   57 0-5  OT3_ESG_3&#58;20
            L  AA   6  LakevilleSouth           996.0700  996.6627   3   1   0   0  10      4   3.8              34
                                                --------  --------                              ---              --
                                            OT3   1.1660    1.1242                              1.2              91


2018 MSHSL State Tournament Qualifiers
-------------------------------------
1 AA   LakevilleSouth
2 AA   EdenPrairie
3 AA   Eagan
4 AA   Hill-Murray
5 AA   Centennial
6 AA   Edina
7 AA   Andover
8 AA   Brainerd/LittleFalls
------------------------------
1  A   RedWing
2  A   NewUlm
3  A   Marshall
4  A   St.PaulUnited
5  A   Breck
6  A   Alexandria
7  A   Proctor/Hermantown
8  A   Warroad

LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Post by LSQRANK » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:38 pm

I guess the computer programs beat the human seeding this year.

Code: Select all

Root-Mean-Square-Errors &#40;RMSE&#41; were computed for both KRACH & LSQRANK.  The RMSE is a numerical value that quantifies the closest of
the rating profile's predicted score differentials to that of the observed corrected score. Raw scores are corrected for non-ESG's and ENG's.
RMSE is computed as the square root of the sum of the square of the error differences divided by the total number of games observed.

RMSE =  SQRT&#91; SUM&#40;SQR&#40;delta" - delta'&#41;&#41;/&#40;Num_Games&#41; &#93;				  
				  
				  
                      Points
                      -------
Current Tally    GP   +1     0     %    RMSE
--------------   ---  ---  ---   ----   ----
MSHSL SEEDING &#58;  123   94  29    76.4   
KRACH         &#58;  123  102  21    82.9   2.48
LSQRANK       &#58;  123  105  18    85.4   2.20

ghshockeyfan
Posts: 6132
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:33 pm
Location: Inver Grove Heights, MN
Contact:

Post by ghshockeyfan » Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:00 pm

LSQRANK wrote:I guess the computer programs beat the human seeding this year.

Code: Select all

Root-Mean-Square-Errors &#40;RMSE&#41; were computed for both KRACH & LSQRANK.  The RMSE is a numerical value that quantifies the closest of
the rating profile's predicted score differentials to that of the observed corrected score. Raw scores are corrected for non-ESG's and ENG's.
RMSE is computed as the square root of the sum of the square of the error differences divided by the total number of games observed.

RMSE =  SQRT&#91; SUM&#40;SQR&#40;delta" - delta'&#41;&#41;/&#40;Num_Games&#41; &#93;				  
				  
				  
                      Points
                      -------
Current Tally    GP   +1     0     %    RMSE
--------------   ---  ---  ---   ----   ----
MSHSL SEEDING &#58;  123   94  29    76.4   
KRACH         &#58;  123  102  21    82.9   2.48
LSQRANK       &#58;  123  105  18    85.4   2.20
Indeed - but not all of them, actually. QRF was 93/123 whereas the coaches were 94/123 overall.

Here's the final tally I counted up quickly (predicting winners only, no other factors):

State Tourney Only:

1. KRACH 17 of 22 correct = 77.3%
2. LSQ 16 of 22 correct = 72.7% (only difference between KRACH was the EP/Eagan game)
3. COACH 15 of 22 correct = 68.2%
4. QRF 14 of 22 correct = 63.6%

Image

Overall (Section & State):

1. LSQ 97 of 123 correct = 78.9%
2. KRACH 96 of 123 correct = 78.0%
3. COACH 94 of 123 correct = 76.4%
4. QRF 93 of 123 correct = 75.6%

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