Alex vs St. Paul United
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
Alex vs St. Paul United
Any insights on this game? Might be the best game of the first round in both brackets.
Re: Alex vs St. Paul United
KRACH rating profile predicts a multiple OT game, either team wins.ZAP wrote:Any insights on this game? Might be the best game of the first round in both brackets.
LSQRANK rating profile predicts a delta' advantage of 0.6 goals which will translate into a 2 to 1 victory in OT by SPU where SPU scores 2 PPG's and Alex scores 1 ESG.
Code: Select all
T = TIE (delta' << MOE, i.e. zero is contained in 95% C.I.)
0 = BAD (outside of 95% C.I.) or lower seed won
1 = OK (contained in 95% C.I.) or higher seed won
Play-In = Rnd 0 delta" = observed CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL
Quarter-Finals = RND 1 delta' = predicted CORR SCORE DIFFERENTIAL GAME
Semi-Finals = RND 2 PREDICTION
Sectional-Finals = RND 3 MOE = Margin of Error = 0.67 goal ----------
State_Quarter = RND 4 L
State_Semis = RND 5 C.I = [delta +/- MOE ] S
State_Finals = RND 6 95% C.I = [delta +/- 0.67] M K Q
S R R
COMP E P S E P H A A
PRE MSHSL TRANS S P H N I RAW CORR S C N
## RND W/L CLS SEED TEAM KRACH LSQRANK G G G G M SCORE SCORE L H K Notes
== === === === ==== ====================== ========= ========= == == == == == ===== ===== = = = =========================
1 QTR W A 2 Breck 996.3050 997.1595
L A 8 Marshall 989.1339 988.9223
-------- --------
RUN +7.1711 +8.2372
2 QTR W A 3 RedWing 994.8104 994.4037
L A 6 Proctor/Hermantown 992.8189 993.7825
-------- --------
REG +1.9915 +0.6212
3 QTR W A 1 Warroad 996.1836 997.0438
L A 7 NewUlm 992.9573 992.9509
-------- --------
REG +3.2263 +4.0929
4 QTR L A 4 Alexandria 994.9503 994.4402
W A 5 St.PaulUnited 994.9874 995.0856
-------- --------
OT -0.0371 -0.6454 delta" << MOE : either team could win;
Edge to SPU due to State-2017 experience
5 QTR W AA 2 Centennial 999.6622 998.8639
L AA 6 LakevilleSouth 996.0700 996.6627
-------- --------
REG +3.5922 +2.2012
6 QTR W AA 3 Hill-Murray 998.5009 998.7433
L AA 7 Eagan 996.9765 996.6117
-------- --------
REG +1.5244 +2.1316
7 QTR W AA 1 Edina 1000.0000 1000.0000
L AA 8 Brainerd/LittleFalls 996.7836 995.7490
-------- --------
REG +3.2164 +4.2510
8 QTR W AA 4 Andover 997.2360 997.7869
L AA 5 EdenPrairie 996.5704 997.1954
-------- --------
OT +0.6656 +0.5915 delta" << MOE : either team could win;
Edge to EP due to State-2017 experience
9 SEMI A
A
-------- --------
10 SEMI A
A
-------- --------
11 SEMI AA
AA
-------- --------
12 SEMI AA
AA
-------- --------
13 FINAL A
A
-------- --------
14 FINAL AA
AA
-------- --------
15 3rd A
A
-------- --------
16 3rd AA
AA
-------- --------
Computer Rating Profiles
Updated Feb 19, 2018
SCORE TRANSFORMED SCORE
KRACH KRACH KRACH LSQRANK LSQRANK
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1534.556 1000.0000 Edina Edina 1000.0000
1486.91 999.9482 Blake Blake 999.1663
1249.413 999.6622 Centennial Centennial 998.8639
615.998 998.5009 Hill-Murray Hill-Murray 998.7433
383.828 997.7249 MapleGrove Andover 997.7869
284.85 997.2360 Andover MapleGrove 997.2395
272.506 997.1633 Blaine EdenPrairie 997.1954
243.137 996.9765 Eagan Breck 997.1595
216.139 996.7836 Brainerd/LittleFalls Warroad 997.0438
197.534 996.6362 Wayzata Blaine 996.9786
189.766 996.5704 EdenPrairie Farmington 996.9294
177.41 996.4602 Roseau Wayzata 996.9139
165.807 996.3494 Farmington LakevilleSouth 996.6627
161.368 996.3050 Breck Eagan 996.6117
149.836 996.1836 Warroad ForestLake 996.6016
139.792 996.0700 LakevilleSouth Minnetonka 996.5880
139.559 996.0672 ForestLake Roseau 995.8901
118.558 995.8003 Minnetonka Brainerd/LittleFalls 995.7490
80.894 995.1748 LakevilleNorth Shakopee 995.6545
76.447 995.0823 Shakopee LakevilleNorth 995.5974
72.136 994.9874 St.PaulUnited ElkRiver/Zimmerman 995.3373
70.518 994.9503 Alexandria WhiteBearLake 995.3226
64.736 994.8104 RedWing Anoka 995.1849
62.015 994.7402 WhiteBearLake St.PaulUnited 995.0856
61.365 994.7230 St.Cloud Cretin-DerhamHall 995.0071
53.775 994.5071 GrandRapids/Greenway AppleValley 994.9449
53.304 994.4928 MoundsView Eastview 994.8461
46.517 994.2702 SouthStPaul MoundsView 994.8427
46.055 994.2539 ThiefRiverFalls GrandRapids/Greenway 994.6423
44.894 994.2121 ElkRiver/Zimmerman SouthStPaul 994.5073
44.174 994.1857 Cretin-DerhamHall Rogers 994.4985
36.793 993.8870 NorthWrightCounty HolyFamily/Waconia 994.4958
33.689 993.7430 PriorLake Alexandria 994.4402
31.824 993.6500 AppleValley Burnsville 994.4270
30.677 993.5901 Rogers Hopkins/St.LouisPark 994.4117
27.876 993.4337 EastGrandForks RedWing 994.4037
27.071 993.3859 Anoka NorthWrightCounty 994.2271
27.019 993.3828 Burnsville St.Cloud 994.1879
26.853 993.3727 Hopkins/St.LouisPark PriorLake 994.0693
26.56 993.3548 HolyFamily/Waconia Chaska/Chanhassen 993.9359
25.919 993.3149 Eastview EastRidge 993.8192
24.622 993.2311 EastRidge ThiefRiverFalls 993.7848
23.793 993.1752 ParkofCottageGrove Proctor/Hermantown 993.7825
20.82 992.9573 NewUlm ChamplinPark/CoonRapids 993.7410
20.538 992.9351 Chaska/Chanhassen ParkofCottageGrove 993.7361
19.874 992.8814 Sartell/SaukRapids Benilde-St.Margaret's 993.6290
19.145 992.8204 Mahtomedi Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC 993.3472
19.127 992.8189 Proctor/Hermantown NewPrague 993.3448
18.865 992.7964 DuluthMarshall DodgeCounty 993.3418
18.051 992.7244 RochesterMayo Stillwater 993.3087
17.876 992.7085 NewPrague RochesterLourdes 993.3049
17.568 992.6802 Delano/Rockford Mahtomedi 993.2545
17.414 992.6658 Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC EastGrandForks 993.1561
15.981 992.5257 ChamplinPark/CoonRapids Delano/Rockford 993.1419
15.25 992.4493 Northfield DuluthMarshall 992.9758
14.474 992.3642 DodgeCounty NewUlm 992.9509
12.555 992.1322 Stillwater Orono 992.9055
11.717 992.0196 RochesterLourdes Sartell/SaukRapids 992.8339
11.645 992.0095 Hutchinson Hutchinson 992.6895
11.584 992.0009 Benilde-St.Margaret's Northfield 992.6313
10.983 991.9141 Princeton Princeton 992.5097
10.715 991.8738 FergusFalls SpringLakePark 992.4900
10.202 991.7938 Moorhead Roseville 992.4482
10.162 991.7874 Owatonna FergusFalls 992.3743
7.957 991.3888 St.Francis/NorthBranch BloomingtonJefferson 992.3529
7.811 991.3586 Orono Duluth 992.3326
7.315 991.2517 RiverLakes Hibbing/Chisholm 992.2944
7.202 991.2263 Buffalo Buffalo 992.2927
7.062 991.1944 BloomingtonJefferson Cloquet-Esko-Carlton 992.1663
7.018 991.1842 Duluth St.Francis/NorthBranch 992.1344
6.836 991.1414 InternationalFalls RiverLakes 991.8166
6.272 991.0011 Hibbing/Chisholm MoundWestonka 991.7155
6.13 990.9638 SpringLakePark Moorhead 991.6349
5.364 990.7464 Willmar InternationalFalls 991.5502
4.692 990.5285 Roseville RochesterMayo 991.5453
4.449 990.4419 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton Owatonna 991.4873
4.219 990.3555 Faribault Willmar 991.4001
3.634 990.1126 MoundWestonka Hastings 991.2691
3.605 990.0995 Hastings Simley 990.8885
2.55 989.5363 MooseLakeArea Minneapolis 990.7861
2.429 989.4572 MinnehahaUnited MooseLakeArea 990.7472
2.387 989.4288 Totino-Grace NorthSt.Paul/Tartan 990.7219
2.346 989.4007 ChisagoLakes Totino-Grace 990.6241
2.313 989.3776 Minneapolis HolyAngels 990.5745
2.151 989.2595 Simley Faribault 990.5665
1.991 989.1339 Marshall ChisagoLakes 990.1331
1.965 989.1125 HolyAngels Osseo/ParkCenter 990.1058
1.865 989.0276 NorthSt.Paul/Tartan Rosemount 989.7780
1.749 988.9232 Rosemount Irondale 989.6973
1.405 988.5673 Irondale MinnehahaUnited 989.6241
1.32 988.4659 MankatoWest HenrySibley 989.5235
1.224 988.3432 Osseo/ParkCenter RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Coope 988.9588
1.193 988.3016 MankatoEast Marshall 988.9223
0.973 987.9705 HenrySibley Woodbury 988.8549
0.971 987.9672 Eveleth-Gilbert NorthShore 988.7330
0.894 987.8330 Woodbury Bemidji 988.5093
0.852 987.7549 RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Cooper PrairieCentre 988.4757
0.846 987.7434 PrairieCentre Eveleth-Gilbert 988.1537
0.792 987.6364 Luverne NorthernLakes 988.1482
0.644 987.3006 NorthShore MankatoWest 988.0436
0.608 987.2073 Austin MankatoEast 988.0119
0.603 987.1939 NorthernLakes Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato 987.9962
0.558 987.0680 MinnesotaRiver DetroitLakes 987.5560
0.483 986.8339 RochesterJohnMarshall Luverne 987.2094
0.411 986.5721 DetroitLakes MinnesotaRiver 986.6721
0.396 986.5118 Bemidji RochesterJohnMarshall 986.3972
0.24 985.7002 Windom Austin 986.3615
0.218 985.5444 Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato St.PaulBlades 985.9985
0.196 985.3721 AlbertLea Windom 985.5512
0.164 985.0835 Waseca Waseca 985.1958
0.148 984.9173 RochesterCentury AlbertLea 984.5979
0.141 984.8389 St.PaulBlades RochesterCentury 983.8151
0.11 984.4370 Worthington Crookston 983.4160
0.069 983.6827 ParkRapids ParkRapids 983.3809
0.028 982.2256 Crookston Worthington 982.4974
0.018 981.5126 Fairmont MorrisArea/BensonArea 980.0557
0.008 980.2052 MorrisArea/BensonArea Fairmont 979.7668
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