AA state tourney seeding

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east hockey
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Re: The 2019 Seedings thread

Post by east hockey » Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:32 pm

That guy for that thing wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:31 pm
hockey59 wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:07 pm
O-townClown wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:03 pm


1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. St. T
4. Eden Prairie
5. Duluth E
x. Moorhead
x. White Bear Lake
x. Lakeville S

Reasoning:

Edina is #1 and will probably unanimously be voted as #1 seed
Blaine had a great year and is a solid #2
St. Thomas hasn't lost in forever. #3
Eden Prairie gets a 4 or 5 and won't go unseeded. They fared well this year and faced a very difficult schedule.
So it comes down to Moorhead, White Bear Lake & Duluth East for the 5 spot.
Moorhead beat Duluth East head to head (as I recall) pretty decisively...end of story.
But East tied EP, and Blaine. Shouldn't that bring them up to those levels then?
And beat WBL

Lee
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hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:48 pm

And lost to Brainerd, Champlin Park, Prior Lake. If they had beat Moorhead head to head, sure they’re likely seeded. But they didn’t, so EP is 4 or 5 and MH is 5 or 4...are we seeding by historical reputation...or record this year? And if you’re a DE fan, wouldn’t you rather be on the other side of the bracket from Edina anyway?

WBLPuck99
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by WBLPuck99 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:37 pm

Ultimately, I think STA, WBL, EP, MH and DE have arguments why they could be seed 3-5 or left unseeded.

I think everyone agrees with

1. Edina
2. Blaine
Lakeville unseeded.

The 3-7 could be argued so many ways. So here's my comparison for WBL.

STA has some good wins, so I assume they deserve the #3, but if you compare common opponents with WBL, they actually come out behind there (HM loss, Stillwater, Cretin, Edina)

EP didn't fare any better against common opponents than WBL did aside from a tie with DE. They also have a loss to Stillwater, which WBL beat twice.

MH has a 4-0 victory over DE, and all other common opponents they had with WBL had the same outcome.

DE is the wild card. They beat WBL head to head (1 goal game, but 2 ENG made the spread wider). If you look at their schedule, it just looks like they were a team that could come in and light it up if they were going on all cylinders, but if not, they were susceptible to defeat on all sides.

WBL overall does not have the high quality wins (aside from HM twice), but, aside from an odd tie with East Ridge, they have not had any bad losses either. So I would slot them at #5.

My scenario would be:

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. STA
4. Moorhead
5. WBL
EP, DE, LVS

O-townClown
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by O-townClown » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:17 pm

WBLPuck99 wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:37 pm
Ultimately, I think STA, WBL, EP, MH and DE have arguments why they could be seed 3-5 or left unseeded.
St. Thomas has won 18 in a row. Over that time they beat:

Prior Lake
Rosemount
Mahtomedi 2x
Cretin
Hastings
Jefferson
Hill-Murray
Lakeville North
Eastview
Eagan

For state tournament teams they tied EP and lost to Edina. I'm all ears for that argument they could be unseeded.
Be kind. Rewind.

That guy for that thing
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by That guy for that thing » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:20 pm

WBLPuck99 wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:37 pm
Ultimately, I think STA, WBL, EP, MH and DE have arguments why they could be seed 3-5 or left unseeded.

I think everyone agrees with

1. Edina
2. Blaine
Lakeville unseeded.

The 3-7 could be argued so many ways. So here's my comparison for WBL.

STA has some good wins, so I assume they deserve the #3, but if you compare common opponents with WBL, they actually come out behind there (HM loss, Stillwater, Cretin, Edina)

EP didn't fare any better against common opponents than WBL did aside from a tie with DE. They also have a loss to Stillwater, which WBL beat twice.

MH has a 4-0 victory over DE, and all other common opponents they had with WBL had the same outcome.

DE is the wild card. They beat WBL head to head (1 goal game, but 2 ENG made the spread wider). If you look at their schedule, it just looks like they were a team that could come in and light it up if they were going on all cylinders, but if not, they were susceptible to defeat on all sides.

WBL overall does not have the high quality wins (aside from HM twice), but, aside from an odd tie with East Ridge, they have not had any bad losses either. So I would slot them at #5.

My scenario would be:

1. Edina
2. Blaine
3. STA
4. Moorhead
5. WBL
EP, DE, LVS
But right now, are they rolling or are the susceptible? Rolling. End of story. I think the top three will try to avoid playing them and seed them, WBL, EP and HM will put them bottom 3. It comes down to where LVS ranks them. IMO

East Side Pioneer Guy
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by East Side Pioneer Guy » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am

Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.

The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.

hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:18 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:06 am
Based on past performance, WB should be unseeded.

The Bears are only 51 minutes away from Mariucci, which apparently is their favorite place to play in March.
This is a seedlings thread, not a bitter the Pioneers LOST thread 😉 That said, WBL didn’t have enough overall quality wins to be seeded.

DadsMoney
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by DadsMoney » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:05 am

My guess/hope:

Edina (1)
LVS

EP (4)
MH (5)

Blaine (2)
WBL

STA (3)
DE

Would be nice to set up Edina v DE final

hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:11 am

Those are my picks too...it’s not based on emotion or tradition...it’s based on how the teams have performed, when you factor in regular season & section results ☝️And if DE & Edina (then) meet in the Final, they’ll merit it & it will be a exciting game.

Jeffy95
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Jeffy95 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:19 am

My prediction is East gets the 5. Very long shot at a four. Where teams are at right now will factor in with the coaches.

hockey59
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by hockey59 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:29 am

Jeffy95 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:19 am
My prediction is East gets the 5. Very long shot at a four. Where teams are at right now will factor in with the coaches.
They haven’t merited the 5...but they might get it. I guess DE vs EP would be entertaining & if they get by EP then Edina on Friday night ☝️I’m sure Blaine would prefer DE getting the 5 seed 😉

Jeffy95
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Jeffy95 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:59 am

Wouldn't mind a 6 though. Randolph should be able to exploit STA and then we're still on track for DE/Edina. Can see Ryder getting behind that STA D several times. Not too worried about EP either. Blaine could be tough...

LASERBLUE135
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by LASERBLUE135 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:06 am

In 2019 DE has:
1. Beat a great Andover team in overtime.
2. Comfortably run through the section up to the final (just like the rest of the field)
3. Gone 6-1 vs “mid level” competition.
4. And finally they had gone 2-3-1 against state caliber competition. TWO wins in 6 games... you all are putting them in the finals??? Because they beat an Andover team that couldn’t handle their moment?

Since December 1st 2018 WBL has:
1. Lost to teams in the top 3 in the state.
2. Beat EVERYONE else. 16-0-1 record (I guess they did tie once in December). 19-0-1 if you include sectionals!

EP has SIX lost in 2019 and a tie. They have lost to very good teams, but I say they don’t deserve seeding. SIX seams like a lot.

Moorhead is 10-1-1 in 2019 BEFORE sectionals. With some nice wins. They should absolutely be seeded.

LS has lost 8 in 2019. Ouch.

You need to go 3-0 to win state. DE has struggled to get 3 wins against state caliber competition over the last 2 months. I wouldn’t seed them.

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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by dherman8 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:40 am

Let me preface this by saying I am not arguing a case for anyone and I know sections seeding isn't always the best gauge, but as a spectator of this topic that doesn't have the knowledge about it as a lot of you, it is crazy to me that many are arguing EP to be ranked. Sure, up until Hockey Day, Minnetonka was a powerhouse, but outside of them, I can't see what makes 2AA any better than the section DE. WBL, or Moorhead are in. Being EP didn't knock off Minnetonka to get to state, I just don't understand most of the arguments for them to get a ranking. I almost feel like EP is getting credit for surviving in a section that saw a different team (HF) take care of the dirty work. From what I see, Chaska was ranked above EP in the section, but Chaska had some questionable losses to teams like Eveleth and Sartell and somehow got the 2 seed over EP in that section. EP had some good wins, but they also had many cracks at getting those wins. EP losing to Blake is less than assuring, too. I don't know, maybe I am off base, but for these reasons I feel other teams have better cases.

Jeffy95
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Jeffy95 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:42 am

LASERBLUE135 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:06 am
In 2019 DE has:
1. Beat a great Andover team in overtime.
2. Comfortably run through the section up to the final (just like the rest of the field)
3. Gone 6-1 vs “mid level” competition.
4. And finally they had gone 2-3-1 against state caliber competition. TWO wins in 6 games... you all are putting them in the finals??? Because they beat an Andover team that couldn’t handle their moment?

Since December 1st 2018 WBL has:
1. Lost to teams in the top 3 in the state.
2. Beat EVERYONE else. 16-0-1 record (I guess they did tie once in December). 19-0-1 if you include sectionals!

EP has SIX lost in 2019 and a tie. They have lost to very good teams, but I say they don’t deserve seeding. SIX seams like a lot.

Moorhead is 10-1-1 in 2019 BEFORE sectionals. With some nice wins. They should absolutely be seeded.

LS has lost 8 in 2019. Ouch.

You need to go 3-0 to win state. DE has struggled to get 3 wins against state caliber competition over the last 2 months. I wouldn’t seed them.
I for one am not putting them in the final. They will have to play better than they did against Andover. Passes from the D especially. Good news is they didn't have their best game and still found a way.

What they've done the last two months would be relevant if Randolph cared one iota about the regular season. He doesn't, so it's not. You must be new?

BodyShots
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by BodyShots » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:45 am

dherman8 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:40 am
Let me preface this by saying I am not arguing a case for anyone and I know sections seeding isn't always the best gauge, but as a spectator of this topic that doesn't have the knowledge about it as a lot of you, it is crazy to me that many are arguing EP to be ranked. Sure, up until Hockey Day, Minnetonka was a powerhouse, but outside of them, I can't see what makes 2AA any better than the section DE. WBL, or Moorhead are in. Being EP didn't knock off Minnetonka to get to state, I just don't understand most of the arguments for them to get a ranking. I almost feel like EP is getting credit for surviving in a section that saw a different team (HF) take care of the dirty work. From what I see, Chaska was ranked above EP in the section, but Chaska had some questionable losses to teams like Eveleth and Sartell and somehow got the 2 seed over EP in that section. EP had some good wins, but they also had many cracks at getting those wins. EP losing to Blake is less than assuring, too. I don't know, maybe I am off base, but for these reasons I feel other teams have better cases.
Go points Herm. I agree 100%

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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by karl(east) » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:51 am

2. Blaine vs. WBL
3. Eden Prairie vs. Lakeville South
1. Edina vs. Moorhead
4. St. Thomas vs. 5 Duluth East

Good day to be an Eagle, apparently. :?

O-townClown
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by O-townClown » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:54 am

3rd over ST suprises me, but it does make a 4th EP-Edina game less likely. Some great matchups!
Be kind. Rewind.

LASERBLUE135
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by LASERBLUE135 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:58 am

karl(east) wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:51 am
2. Blaine vs. WBL
3. Eden Prairie vs. Lakeville South
1. Edina vs. Moorhead
4. St. Thomas vs. 5 Duluth East

Good day to be an Eagle, apparently. :?
Well that makes for a more exciting tournament! I can easily see all games going either way. Obviously Edina and EP look to have the best chance at winning their games, but nothing looks like a gimme. If you took off those seeding numbers I’d argue this looks like a completely random draw.

ThatMNHockeyGuy62
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by ThatMNHockeyGuy62 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:02 am

Wow EP was a 3 seed in section 2AA and then a 3 seed at state. When’s the last time something like that happened?

DadsMoney
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by DadsMoney » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:04 am

karl(east) wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:51 am
2. Blaine vs. WBL
3. Eden Prairie vs. Lakeville South
1. Edina vs. Moorhead
4. St. Thomas vs. 5 Duluth East

Good day to be an Eagle, apparently. :?
Until they get demolished by Blaine. EP is the most overrated team in the state.

Joe2015
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by Joe2015 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:05 am

ThatMNHockeyGuy62 wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:02 am
Wow EP was a 3 seed in section 2AA and then a 3 seed at state. When’s the last time something like that happened?
Two seasons ago, Grand Rapids was a 4 seed in the sections and then got a 5 seed at state. And went on to win it all of course.

WestMetro
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by WestMetro » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:29 am

Compared to final LPH rankings :

EP leapfrogs WBL and STA, then draws weakest unranked team in the first round. This after barely surviving unranked HF at Mariucci

Deast leapfrogs MH and WBL , but then draws same STA pairing but in evening bracket instead of afternoon. Destroys the chance for an all northern final . Destroys chance fir a Deast Edina final

Seems like Bears were most disrespected , specially after taking care of biz on Pio home ice

Who can figure it? Specially after 5 straight years of following LPH all the way thru 1-8 seeds

ryguyMN
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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by ryguyMN » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:33 am

I agree that EP’s 3 seed is high. Even doing the regular season, I thought their state ranking was a tad high. The talent was there, but just never lived up to expectations on paper for whatever reason. Maybe it was Jensen trying to be the whole team.

Before the seeds were released, I was thinking the #5 seed would go to EP with WBL being #4. I would have placed STA at #3.

No question it should make for an interesting tournament though and have a captive audience.
Ryan

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Re: AA state tourney seeding

Post by EREmpireStrikesBack » Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:37 am

ryguyMN wrote:
Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:33 am
I agree that EP’s 3 seed is high. Even doing the regular season, I thought their state ranking was a tad high. The talent was there, but just never lived up to expectations on paper for whatever reason. Maybe it was Jensen trying to be the whole team.

Before the seeds were released, I was thinking the #5 seed would go to EP with WBL being #4. I would have placed STA at #3.

No question it should make for an interesting tournament though and have a captive audience.
Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 10.36.02 AM.png
Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 10.36.02 AM.png (33.95 KiB) Viewed 559 times
PageStat disagrees.

:idea:
Elk River AA State Champions- 2001 Boys & 2004 Girls

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