northwoods oldtimer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:50 pm@yesiplayedhockey NAILED IT!!!yesiplayedhockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:16 pm My crystal ball says this (and it's right 50% of the time...The other 50% of the time it's wrong)
Over the next 3,5,10 years I think you will see the same 4-6 teams dominating the class AA tournament
Yes we all know 8 teams get invited and yes a team like a Lakeville South or say Burnsville will occasionally make it to state. But I predict that 70-80% of the time the class AA winner will be one of those same 4-6 teams.. I predict we may never see a state FINAL that didn't at least have one of those 4-6 teams in it
Right now AAA parents are whispering to each other "what if we could keep this AAA team together in the winter? What if we all went there...or here. or or or.
AAA hockey, for all it's good, has actually helped private schools (and some public schools) build their business...I mean team...
I see the trend continuing and growing. I see more and more "high schools" becoming all star teams. Yes the state tournament will still have 8 schools. Yes some schools like LS will get there 1 out every 10 years. But if you're asking me, I believe more time than not, the winner of the state tournament will most likely come from that elite group of same schools.
Not sure I would call this nailing it. He claimed Lakeville South might get to the state tournament 1 out of 10 years after they just went three times this decade and probably the favorite for next year in that section.
But also predicting that the same 4-6 teams will dominate for the next ten years is an easy prediction. Someone wrote how many teams made state in each decade, but not the champions or runners up. So if we want to predict that 4-6 teams will be in every final for the next ten years lets look at the past.
The 1950's
6 different teams won Championships: Eveleth, Hibbing, St. Paul Johnson, Thief River, International Falls, Roseau
9 different teams in a championship game
Every championship game featured Eveleth, St. Paul Johnson, Thief River or Roseau.
Evelath 2 championships and two runner ups
Johnson and Roseau each had two championships and one runner up
Thief River had two championships
International Falls had 1 runner up
The 1960's
6 teams won Championships: Duluth East, Roseau, International Falls, St Paul Johnson, Greenway, Edina
10 different teams in the championship game
From 1962-1968 those 7 champioship games featured either International Falls or Greenway. Roseau won 1 championship and had 2 runner ups in the decade. Johnson had 1 Championship and 2 runner ups. The 60's were dominated by those 4 teams. The only two title games they were not featured in was 1960 where East beat St. Paul Washington and then 1969 which is when Edina wins their first title and become a powerhouse over warroad.
International Falls had 4 championships and one runner up
Greenway had two championships
Johnson and Roseau 1 championship and two runner ups
The 1970's
Again 6 teams win championships: Minneapolis Southwest, Edina/Edina East, International Falls, Hibbing, Grand Rapids, Rochester John Marshall.
10 different teams in the championship game
For 9 of the 10 years every state championship game featured either Edina or Grand Rapids. The one outlier is in 1974 when Hibbing beat Roseville Alexander Ramsey. Minneapolis Southwest and John Marshall each had a championship and a runner up trophy, but this decade was literally dominated by two teams. 2!
Edina four championships and two runner ups
Grand Rapids two championships and two runner ups
Southwest and JM with 1 championship and 1 runner up
The 1980's
6 teams again won championships, seems to be a trend. Those teams were: Grand Rapids, Jefferson, Edina, Hill-Murray, Burnsville and Bloomington Kennedy.
9 different teams in the state championship game
Every state championship game this decade had at least one of Jefferson, Edina, Hill-Murray or Burnsville in it. So four team dominated it.
Edina with three titles
Burnsville with two championships and two runner ups
Jefferson with two championships
Hill with 1 championship and four runner ups
Kennedy with 1 championship and 1 runner up
The 1990's
I am only counting AA and Tier I
Can you believe it? 6 teams again won championships. Roseau, Hill-Murray, Jefferson, Duluth East, Edina, Apple Valley
10 different teams in the championship game
Every championship game featured Roseau, Jefferson, Duluth East or Apple Valley.
Jefferson with three titles
Roseau with two
East with two and a runner up
Apple Valley, Edina and Hill all with 1 championship and 1 runner up.
Moorhead with 3 runner ups.
Probably the most diverse decade yet, but still, depending on how you want to break it down, only 4-6 teams dominated the 10 years.
The 2000's
The most amount of champions yet with 9 teams. Blaine, Elk River Holy Angels, Anoka, Centennial, Cretin-Derham Hall, Roseau, Hill Murray, Eden Prairie.
In the ten state title games there are 14 different teams featured, which is the most for a decade by a good amount in comparison.
But I still only need 5 teams to make up every state championship game: Blaine, Moorhead, Hill-Murray, Anoka, Grand Rapids.
Holy Angels has two championships
Hill Murray has one and a runner up
Blaine, Elk River, Anoka, Centennial, Roseau, Cretin and EP all get one
Moorhead has four runner ups
Grand Rapids has two runner ups.
The weird thing about this decade is that if you were gonna pick a team that was most dominating you might go with Moorhead even though they never won. Besides that you have a Holy Angels Team that quickly rose but the program kinda disappeared by the end of the decade and after four straight appearances from 2002-2005, have not made it back since. After them you have a lot of teams that only won one championship and never got back to a title game.
Obviously the most parity of any decade so far.
The 2010's
7 teams won state this decade: Edina, Eden Prairie, Benilde, Lakeville North, Wayzata, Grand Rapids and Minnetonka
10 different teams are in the state title game
4 are in every game besides one: Minnetonka, Eden Prairie, Hill Murray, Lakeville North (the fact that I didn't have to include Edina or East in this shows how useless this stat is and how easy it is to manipulate.) The one outlier year was Grand Rapids over Moorhead in 2017.
Edina with four titles was the best team this decade.
EP with one and two runner ups
Tonka and Lakeville North with one championship and one runner up
Benilde, Wayzata and Grand Rapids with one championship
Duluth East with three runner ups
Hill with two runner ups
This decade was basically dominated by one team, and then like the previous decade, a second tier of teams that consistently got second like East.
I would say Edina then EP then maybe Duluth East dominated this decade. Unlike the 60's, 70's, 80's and 90 we aren't seeing multiple teams winning a lot of championships, which makes it hard to see if we have a dominant team outside of Edina.
Obviously the 2000's were the least predictable or had the most parity, but we act like it has been more predictable of late. Looking through the years, I would say 2010's is either the 2nd or 3rd least predictable. I would say it is 2nd, but you could flip flop it with the 90's and that would be fine with me. 2010's bigger issue was that the same teams has been coming out sections. But 2010's has been less predictable than 50's or 60's where it was basically 4-5 teams trading off championships and clearly better than the 70's and 80's where it seemed even more predictable than the previous two decades.
In recap
The 1950s were dominated by 4-5 teams: Evelath, Johnson, Roseau, Thief River and maybe International Falls
The 60's were dominated by 4 teams: International Falls, Greenway, Roseau and Johnson
The 70's were dominated by two in Edina/Edina East and Grand Rapids
The 80's were dominated by Edina, Burnsville, Jefferson and Hill-Murray
The 90's were dominated by Jefferson, East and Roseau and then maybe a second tier of Apple Valley, Moorhead, Edina and Hill
The 2000's was all over the board but maybe you can argue Holy Angels and then maybe Moorhead as the most dominant
The 2010's were all Edina and then maybe EP and a second tier of East, Tonka and Lakeville North.
But my point in all this is that making a prediction that 4-6 teams will dominate and be in every state championship game is such an easy prediction because that has happened in every decade besides one.