AA Rankings for 1/9/22

[karl(east)]

Another week, another new top-ranked team. It’s just the routine now. The week ahead is a relatively thin one for big games (at least among AA teams), so maybe things wills stabilize a bit. Maybe.

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (10-3) LW: 3
-The Raiders looked solid in dispatching of Edina on Thursday; even when losing, watching them tends to remind me why I had them as the top team preseason. Few teams look as fluid or in control, and unlike the other contender for this spot this week, they’ve had little trouble beating teams they should beat. They only have one nonconference game left and have a deep dive this week with three games, the first of which is against the team that is probably their toughest competition in the Suburban East.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Thurs vs. Mounds View, Sat at Irondale

2. Andover (11-2-1) LW: 2
-The Huskies won both their games over the last week, but needing overtime to beat Champlin costs them top spot. They have the quality wins (including the head-to-head result against Cretin), but these wobbles against middling teams just aren’t quite as convincing as what the Raiders are doing at the moment. Any sort of challenge this week would be a real source of concern.
This week: Thurs vs. Armstrong/Cooper, Sat vs. Anoka

3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (8-4) LW: 4
-A solid win over Edina has me feeling better about this high ranking I gave the Red Knights last week. They’ve taken their lumps, but they’ve now rattled off six in a row, including two top ten wins, and for the most part are looking like they can hold up defensively against some high-powered offenses, which is so often the question here. They’ll now look to avoid any sort of comedown against Chaska.
This week: Tues at Chaska

4. Hill-Murray (9-3) LW: 6
-The Pioneers took a while to get moving against Tartan this past week, but after the floodgates opened, the end result was in line with what one would expect, if not even more lopsided. They have their second date with some Zephyrs ahead of them.
This week: Thurs at Simley, Sat at Mahtomedi

5. Roseau (12-2) LW: 1
-The #1 curse continues as the Rams got humbled by rival Warroad. They rebounded with a solid win over Blake and remain a top five team, and I doubt the rematch with the Warriors will be so lopsided. In the near term, though, they will likely settle for dispatching of different set of Warriors.
This week: Sat vs. Brainerd

6. Centennial (9-2) LW: 15
- Filling this spot in the rankings is gross this week, and the Cougars may be feeling some whiplash as they go shooting right back up the rankings. They served some notice with a win over Maple Grove, so this ranking banks on the possibility that the Champlin loss was a fluke. They’re a hard team to rank, as their only losses (one respectable, one not so much) are to conference opponents they’ve now also beaten. They’ve won all of their other games, often by large margins, and the computerized rankings tend to like them; however, Eastview is the only team among them that is in any way impressive. Despite being a likely win, this week’s Duluth East game will at least provide something of a measuring stick.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth East, Thurs vs. Spring Lake Park, Sat at Coon Rapids

7. Maple Grove (8-4-1) LW: 7
-The Crimson took a tumble against Centennial, a loss that substantially weakens but does not completely undo their edge in the race for the 5AA top seed. Despite some impressive wins and generally looking good, this team has not inspired the confidence of some of the other top teams over the course of the season. Their next few games involve some upset-minded opponents.
This week: Thurs vs. Elk River, Sat at #15 Rogers

8. Lakeville South (9-2) LW: 8
-The Cougars’ only game this past week got wiped out. It’s all in the conference this coming week, with the Irish offering up the more interesting test.
This week: Tues at Farmington, Sat vs. Rosemount

9. Moorhead (10-5) LW: 10
-The Spuds picked up two section wins and are now on a streak of six in a row. They’re starting to look potent, which is not good news for Roseau, or for the rest of the state, for that matter. The East Grand game this week is somewhat interesting, but they should be able to keep things rolling.
This week: Tues vs. East Grand Forks, Sat vs. Sartell

10. Edina (8-5) LW: 5
-The Hornets have now lost five of their past seven, and while all of those losses have been to top 15 teams (including two who are now in the top three this past week), it’s not an encouraging trend for a team that has at times looked hard to beat. Can they avenge the earlier St. Thomas loss?
This week: Fri at #12 St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. Buffalo

11. Grand Rapids (10-3) LW: 11
-The Thunderhawks made short work of Duluth East in their only action last week. If you’re wondering why I’ve consistently kept this team lower than everyone else, it’s a matter of quality wins: Eden Prairie is their only top 15 win, and only two others are close-ish (Minnetonka and Elk River). It will be another week before they have a chance to change that.
This week: Tues at Superior (WI), Thurs at Duluth Denfeld

12. St. Thomas Academy (8-5) LW: 12
-The Cadets avenged an earlier loss to Mahtomedi with a grinding effort against the Fighting Dardises. They’re trending in the right direction but need one more big win for a vault into the top ten, and a second victory over Edina, who is sandwiched between two easier conference games in a run of three games in three days, might just achieve that.
This week: Thurs at Two Rivers, Fri vs. #10 Edina, Sat at Tartan

13. Wayzata (7-5-1) LW: 9
-A flat showing against Minnetonka dumps the Trojans out of the top ten for the first time since the preseason. After a lot of early promise, they appear to be lapsing back into a team that can compete with anyone on a good night, but is also subject to some sketchy losses. They look to avenge one of those sketchy losses this week when they face Rogers for a second time.
This week: Tues vs. #15 Rogers, Thurs vs St. Michael-Albertville

14. Eden Prairie (7-6) LW: 13
-The Eagles have been consistent in their halting progress this season. A win over Prior Lake has them in good position in 2AA, but they couldn’t really keep pace with Hermantown on Saturday, leaving them right here. They have a chance to strengthen the record a bit now.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at St. Michael-Albertville

15. Rogers (8-5-1) LW: 14
-A win over St. Michael-Albertville was a little close for comfort, but they took care of Totino easily enough to hold on to a top 15 spot. A busy week ahead includes Wayzata and Maple Grove, giving them a chance to shake a few things up.
This week: Tues at #13 Wayzata, Thurs vs. Osseo, Sat vs. #7 Maple Grove

The Next Ten

Lakeville North (8-2)
-The Panthers are steadily beating teams they should beat. An interesting contest with Eastview is on the docket.

Stillwater (8-3)
-The Ponies had little trouble on a trip north to face Cloquet and Duluth East. The burden now falls to them to continue to streak of top-ranked teams failing to hold their spot for more than a week as they host Cretin on Tuesday.

Eastview (8-3)
-Just when I was thinking this team really was legit with the win over Minnetonka, they go and lose to Rosemount. It’s not a horrid loss, as the Irish have shown some potential, but it is damaging to their 3AA standing, and it cools their momentum some. More important games loom against White Bear and Lakeville North.

Minnetonka (7-5-1)
-A win over Wayzata reminds us the Skippers can still be a potent force, but the loss to Eastview keeps them safely outside of the top 15, especially after the Lightning lost to Rosemount, too. They have a somewhat easier week ahead of them, with visits to Buffalo and Duluth East.

Blaine (6-3-3)
-Picking up some wins against the underbelly of their conference schedule. Totino could trouble them a little this week, but on paper they should win both of their games.

Chaska (8-4)
-No trouble for the Hawks in a meeting with St. Louis Park. The first of two Benilde games this coming week is a rare remaining chance to do something against a front-line team.

Gentry Academy (10-2)
-Improvement from the Stars this past week, as they beat a good North Dakota team and won a Class A semifinal rematch with East Grand Forks. Up next: a home-and-home with a respectable Holy Angels team that could give us a little more guidance on this team than most of their games.

Rosemount (6-5)
-A loss to Delano is not great, but not terrible either, and the Irish bounced back with a win over Eastview to stay in the top 15. Respectable Shakopee awaits before another big one with Lakeville South.

Hastings (10-2-1)
-It’s worth acknowledging this team, whose only two losses are to elite conference opponents. They’ve got one sketchy tie with Tartan, but other than that, they’ve been putting up some pretty strong scores against a thinner schedule. They have three games this week, all of which are quite winnable, including a rematch with aforementioned Tartan.

White Bear Lake (5-4)
-The Bears are beating teams they should beat and losing to better teams, so we’ll reward some consistency with the final spot here. A win against Eastview this week would help solidify this standing.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Will CDH stumble against Stillwater this week to keep the number 1 curse string alive?

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Thanks for a great read as always, Karl. On the broadcast last night, Pete Waggoner called Benilde the grittiest Red Knight team he's seen in 10 years. I agree. Sarsland and Yakesh are phenomenal and the young guns are really proving they belong. For the first time in a long time, I am a Benilde Believer.

[WestMetro]

Yakesh one of the most underrated players of the year .
And if i counted right , BSM sophomores had 7 points last nite . Along with McElroy strong night in net as a sophomore , Sogs were about 35-25 Hornets .

[BlueLineSpecial]

Thanks for the rankings, Karl.

BSM's schedule eases up mightily following a Jan. 19 tilt with STA. Edina's schedule is relentless from start to finish. If my quick math is correct:

Edina
25 game season
15 of those 25 games will be against teams ranked in Karl's current top 15
6 of their 12 remaining games are against Karl's current top 15

BSM
25 game season
9 of those 25 games will be against teams ranked in Karl's current top 15
1 of their 13 remaining games are against Karl's current top 15

Edina may take some lumps during the season, when 60% of their games are against top competition, but they'll be battle tested and ready when sections come around. BSM will have played a tough 1st half of the season schedule and won't be tested much over the next 6 weeks. Could make a possible section meet-up a bit more interesting. Tough schedules usually make for tough teams come playoff time......

EDIT: BSM played Hermantown, that should count for something.

[thefatcat]

Yakesh one of the most underrated players of the year .
And if i counted right , BSM sophomores had 7 points last nite . Along with McElroy strong night in net as a sophomore , Sogs were about 35-25 Hornets .

6 pts with 3 from stewart and 2 from risteau

[Sparlimb]

Thanks for the rankings, Karl.

BSM's schedule eases up mightily following a Jan. 19 tilt with STA. Edina's schedule is relentless from start to finish. If my quick math is correct:

Edina
25 game season
15 of those 25 games will be against teams ranked in Karl's current top 15
6 of their 12 remaining games are against Karl's current top 15

BSM
25 game season
9 of those 25 games will be against teams ranked in Karl's current top 15
1 of their 13 remaining games are against Karl's current top 15

Edina may take some lumps during the season, when 60% of their games are against top competition, but they'll be battle tested and ready when sections come around. BSM will have played a tough 1st half of the season schedule and won't be tested much over the next 6 weeks. Could make a possible section meet-up a bit more interesting. Tough schedules usually make for tough teams come playoff time......

EDIT: BSM played Hermantown, that should count for something.

I checked for H-M
25 game season
14 of 25 against top 25 plus Hermantown (and Mahtomedi twice), Stillwater once, WBL once and Tonka once which are fringe top 15 teams...
6 remaining against top 15 (Edina twice, Rapids once, STA once, Maple Grove once and Moorhead once) plus Stillwater, Mahtomedi, Tonka

So right on par... The lake teams usually are so far up the rankings that they SOS can't be stopped. But this year they are closer to the rest of the pack. It's going to be a wild sections year...

[karl(east)]

Thanks, all. I probably could've killed the #1 curse if I put Andover at #1, given their schedule this week...we'll see what Stillwater can muster against CDH!

Interesting notes on the SOS difficulty and how the rest of the pack is closer to the Lake teams this season. Of course, a big part of this is probably the Lake teams not being as good as they have been. If Edina loses to St. Thomas again this week, which is a distinct possibility, it's likely there will be zero Lake teams in the top ten next week. I'm sure that hasn't happened since I started doing these rankings.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Thanks for the rankings, Karl.

BSM's schedule eases up mightily following a Jan. 19 tilt with STA. Edina's schedule is relentless from start to finish. If my quick math is correct:

Edina
25 game season
15 of those 25 games will be against teams ranked in Karl's current top 15
6 of their 12 remaining games are against Karl's current top 15

BSM
25 game season
9 of those 25 games will be against teams ranked in Karl's current top 15
1 of their 13 remaining games are against Karl's current top 15

Edina may take some lumps during the season, when 60% of their games are against top competition, but they'll be battle tested and ready when sections come around. BSM will have played a tough 1st half of the season schedule and won't be tested much over the next 6 weeks. Could make a possible section meet-up a bit more interesting. Tough schedules usually make for tough teams come playoff time......

EDIT: BSM played Hermantown, that should count for something.

I checked for H-M
25 game season
14 of 25 against top 25 plus Hermantown (and Mahtomedi twice), Stillwater once, WBL once and Tonka once which are fringe top 15 teams...
6 remaining against top 15 (Edina twice, Rapids once, STA once, Maple Grove once and Moorhead once) plus Stillwater, Mahtomedi, Tonka

So right on par... The lake teams usually are so far up the rankings that they SOS can't be stopped. But this year they are closer to the rest of the pack. It's going to be a wild sections year...

In recent years Hill has done a better job of scheduling fewer conference games, which has allowed them an opportunity to get higher-level competition on the schedule. The Metro East is a feast of famine conference [Feast: HM, STA, Mahtomedi Famine: Henry Sibley (now Two Rivers), SSP, Simley] so while you get some good games you inevitably get some stinkers. There were a few years there where Hill would play NSP, SSP, Simley, Two Rivers & Tartan twice every year. I was never a fan of it, and have a feeling neither were they.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Thanks, all. I probably could've killed the #1 curse if I put Andover at #1, given their schedule this week...we'll see what Stillwater can muster against CDH!

Interesting notes on the SOS difficulty and how the rest of the pack is closer to the Lake teams this season. Of course, a big part of this is probably the Lake teams not being as good as they have been. If Edina loses to St. Thomas again this week, which is a distinct possibility, it's likely there will be zero Lake teams in the top ten next week. I'm sure that hasn't happened since I started doing these rankings.

It is wild to think that there could be zero Lake teams in the top ten. It actually got me thinking...lets say you took the top 4 teams in every conference. What might the top-down order look like? My order:

(1) Northwest Suburban
Andover, Maple Grove, Centennial, Rogers

(2) Metro East
Hill Murray, St Thomas Academy, Mahtomedi, Hastings

(3) Lake
Edina, Eden Prairie, Wayzata, Minnetonka

(4) Mariucci
Roseau, Moorhead, Warroad, East Grand Forks?

(5) Lake Superior
Hermantown, Grand Rapids, Duluth Denfield, ????????

(6) Suburban East
Cretin-Durham Hall, Stillwater, White Bear Lake, East Ridge

(7) South Suburban
Lakeville South, Rosemount, Lakeville North, Prior Lake?

(8) Metro West
Benilde St. Margaret's, Chaska, Chanhassen, Orono?

I'm sure I could be convinced of all sorts of movement - Lake Superior and Suburban East switching, for example.