AA Rankings for 2/19/23 and Section Preview

[karl(east)]

Here we are: one last big rankings effort before we dive into the three greatest weeks of hockey there are. This means the usual format change here: a top 25 presented without deep explanation, followed by a breakdown of each section including descriptions of each team. Make of it what you will, and let the real tests begin.

1. Minnetonka (23-2)
2. Wayzata (17-6-2)
3. Edina (17-6-1)
4. Maple Grove (19-5-1)
5. Andover (18-6-1)
6. Chanhassen (22-3)
7. Duluth East (18-6-1)
8. White Bear Lake (19-5)
9. St. Thomas Academy (18-7)
10. Rogers (16-6-3)
11. Lakeville South (18-6-1)
12. Moorhead (16-9)
13. Holy Family (20-5)
14. Cretin-Derham Hall (15-9-1)
15. Eden Prairie (12-12-1)
16. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (17-8)
17. Roseau (15-9-1)
18. Rosemount (13-11-1)
19. Gentry Academy (16-8)
20. Champlin Park (16-9)
21. Eastview (16-9)
22. Hill-Murray (11-13-1)
23. Stillwater (14-8-3)
24. Centennial (14-10-1)
25. Buffalo (13-10-2)

Here are the section preview capsules; some of these seeds are projections, so they may change.

1AA
QF 2/23 High Seed
SF 2/25 Rochester Rec Center
F 3/2 Rochester Rec Center

1. Lakeville South (18-6-1, #11)
-There is no surer thing for the State Tournament than the Cougars, who are probably the furthest clear of the 1AA field they’ve ever been. They have some legitimate scoring punch in Tate Pritchard and Aidan Willis and Ashton Dahms, and they’ve been pretty consistent this season, controlling the South Suburban well enough to be a top 15 team throughout, but not exactly clear of their competition either, as a final week loss to Eastview showed. The mission now is to merely avoid any drama and set the stage for a competitive showing at State.
2. Rochester Mayo (18-5-2)
-A 2-seed is at least a real achievement here, and a second win over North would be as well. Anything beyond that is gravy, and they’ve had enough adventures that this first round game is no given, either.
3. Lakeville North (11-14)
-Haven’t looked overly competitive with South this season, so we’re left with “you never know with rivalries” as the only hope here.
4. Hastings
5. Rochester Century
6. Owatonna
7. Rochester John Marshall
8. Farmington

2AA
QF 2/23 High Seed
SF 2/25 Braemar
F 3/2 Braemar

1. Chanhassen (22-3, #6)
-The Storm got a valuable convincing win over Benilde, shoring up their ranking heading into a daunting 2AA. They don’t dominate opponents quite the way Minnetonka does, but they’re right there with the Skippers for best records in AA this season, and consistently hold down good opposition with tight defense and a steady output. Time to see how they handle some playoff pressure, especially with what should be a tough semi.
2. Minnetonka (23-2, #1)
-The Skippers have been a half-step ahead of the field all season, and while a one-goal game with Eden Prairie in the season’s final week shows they are not one of the elite #1s we’ve seen over the years, they are the clear #1. And even though they aren't even the top seed in their section, having to go through Prior Lake or Shakopee to get to the final sounds like an easier road than Holy Family or Eden Prairie. They have enough weapons to control games against just about anyone, but this group is still on the young side; how do they hold up under the bright lights?
3. Shakopee (15-10)
-This young team may have dropped from the top 25 amid some late season stumbles, but head-to-head results got it a favorable seed, and this group can still can cause some problems for a favorite here in 2AA.
4. Holy Family (20-5, #13)
-The Fire have lurked here all season long, winning consistently but rarely in the conversation for the top ten; they come into sections on a 12-game winning streak, with an late exclamation point against Stillwater showing they can rough up a respectable team. Closing the gap with the top two here seems like a reach, but the Fire isn’t a crazy dark horse pick here.
5. Eden Prairie (12-12-1, #15)
-The Eagles feel like the most dangerous .500 team in the state right now. They’ve given Minnetonka two one-goal games, they closed on a strong note despite going through a Lake Conference schedule, the defense seems to be improving, and they’ve got some kids who can take over a section game like Teddy Townsend and Ryan Koering.
6. Prior Lake
7. Chaska
8. Bloomington Jefferson

3AA
QF 2/21 High Seed
SF 2/24 Braemar
F 3/1 Braemar

1. St. Thomas Academy (18-7, #9)
-The Cadets march into the 3AA playoffs as the tentative favorite, having played respectably well down the stretch. The formula here is clear: a Mike Randolph scheme and enough Tommy Cronin offense to make the difference in a tight game. They have the makeup to make a deep run into the Tourney, but if they don’t score enough, an early exit is well within the realm of possibility, too.
2. Cretin-Derham Hall (15-9-1, #14)
-The Raiders had a rough close to the regular season, losing five of their last seven to tumble from a firm top ten position to this murkier ground. With the likes of Jake Fisher and Attila Lippai they have the firepower to march through this section, but they need to pull it together. It’s hard to know what to expect going into a likely semifinal with Rosemount.
3. Rosemount (13-11-1, #18)
-The Irish’s impressive late season surge hit some limits in final week losses to Lakeville South and White Bear Lake, but they did enough to claim a 3-seed and insert themselves right in the middle of the conversation in a winnable 3AA. They’ve got enough balance and depth to pull this off.
4. Eastview (16-9, #21)
-The Lightning were among the most inconsistent teams this season, at times looking like world-beaters and at others looking like they’d struggle to escape the quarterfinals. Time to learn which version is reality.
5. Park of Cottage Grove
6. Eagan
7. Apple Valley/Burnsville

4AA
2/25 QF Aldrich
3/1 SF Aldrich
3/3 F Aldrich

1. White Bear Lake (19-5, #8)
-Blaine finishing issues notwithstanding, the Bears found good momentum heading into sections, avenging a loss to Cretin and swatting aside a Rosemount team that had been on a roll. Behind Nolan Roed and Aiden Welch, they’ve been by far the most consistent performer in 4AA and have risen to the top at the end here. But if they make the section final, it will no doubt be a war with a bitter rival.
2. Stillwater (14-8-3, #23)
-The Ponies were perhaps the most erratic team in the state this season, a theme underscored by a wild final week that included both a win over Rogers and a 6-goal loss to Holy Family. I think they’re as serious a contender as any in this section when it comes to talent, but wouldn’t be at all shocked to see them bomb out on Saturday, either.
3. Hill-Murray (11-13-1, #22)
-The Pioneers suffered their first losing regular season in two decades, and after a surge a few weeks ago that made them look dangerous, more recent results against high-end competition leave them on the outside looking in. It’s just not clear they can score enough, though this is Hill-Murray in the playoffs, and they have beaten White Bear this season, so anything is possible.
4. Gentry Academy (16-8, #19)
-The Stars’ final week of the season underscored their sense of mystery, as they barely beat Providence before logging a quality win against Champlin Park. There are enough mediocre results on their record to make me reasonably sure they shouldn’t be ranked higher than this, but in this season’s 4AA, that’s still enough to make them a team of interest. A shot at their rinkmates in the quarterfinals could be juicy, though first they have to get by a sleeper Roseville team.
5. Roseville
6. East Ridge
7. Woodbury
8. Tartan

5AA
PI 2/21 High Seed
QF 2/23 High Seed
SF 2/25 Fogerty
F 3/2 Furniture and Things

1. Rogers (16-6-3, #10)
-The Royals’ fall reached worrying levels in a loss to Stillwater, but they rebounded to eclipse Wayzata and salvage some confidence heading into sections. I still like this team’s makeup a lot; their defensive corps has an argument for best in the state, and they have enough pieces up front that scoring goals shouldn’t be the massive struggle it became toward the season’s end. On paper I still like them to win this section, but they are new to this status as a favorite.
2. Maple Grove (19-5-1, #4)
-The Crimson finished on a strong note with wins over Hill and St. Thomas; going strictly on résumé they’ve got a great case for #2 in the state, but that section record is the real hold-up here. They’ve got the star power, they’ve got the organizational depth, and they have the elite special teams. Can they rebound from losing to the other three contenders in this section to claim a fourth straight Tourney berth? Or is this team, which is very good but not quite as overwhelming as the past few Crimson editions, just not quite able to get it done?
3. Champlin Park (16-9, #20)
-The Rebels’ loss to Gentry was a fourth in five games to dim their prospects down the stretch, though they did recover and take out their anger on Mounds View. At its best, this is a disciplined team with good depth and enough talent up front to win a section. Two top 10 wins in a row to do it will be a tall order, though.
4. Centennial (14-10-1, #24)
-The Cougars looked like a legitimate contender in 5AA around midseason, but have faded badly down the stretch. Payton Blair and Harper Searles are still a fearsome one-two punch, but they’ll need to get a lot more from the rest of the lineup to have a shot in this tough section.
5. Totino-Grace
6. Mounds View
7. Osseo
8. Spring Lake Park
9. Irondale

6AA
QF 2/23 High Seed
SF 2/25 BIG
F 3/1 BIG

1. Wayzata (17-6-2, #2)
-The Trojans’ season-closing blitz of Edina shored up the top seed and was a throwback to their strong early start to the season. At their best they couple classic Trojan defense with an added offensive flair, and could yet be a favorite for the whole thing; if they play more like they did over the past month, though, they are just another member of a crowded pack.
2. Edina (17-6-1, #3)
-The Hornets’ strong second half ended on a sour note with the blowout loss to Wayzata and saddled them with a harder road to State. Jackson Nevers and a stout defense still make them a front-line contender, but does that result let some doubt creep in?
3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (17-8, #16)
-The Red Knights took a beating against Chanhassen just a few weeks after handling the Storm, a second straight bad loss to a high-quality team that underscores my seemingly eternal concern with this program. They now head into a section where they have to go through two of the deepest, most disciplined teams in the state, which on paper are exactly the sorts who will tear them apart in transition and pin them in deep. There is so much talent here, but can it actually play like a cohesive unit and avoid the lack of discipline that has characterized a number of their losses?
4. St. Louis Park
5. Holy Angels
6. Blake
7. Robbinsdale Armstrong/Cooper
8. Hopkins

7AA
QF 2/21 High Seed
SF 2/25 Amsoil
F 3/2 Amsoil

1. Duluth East (18-6-1, #7)
-The Hounds resurrected themselves this season with a 15-1-1 regular season-ending run, with the lone loss coming to Minnetonka. Cole Christian and Grant Winkler had big years to lead the way; their top line is one of the better ones in the state, and they have the most to-to-bottom depth in the section. We’ll see if they can now ride this momentum all the way back to the Promised Land.
2. Andover (18-6-1, #5)
-The defending champs hit some lumps early on, but like East, have closed strong, soundly beating teams they should beat. Gavyn Thoreson, Cayden Casey, and Cooper Conway are still arguably the best line in the state, and this group won’t take kindly to East being anointed the darlings of 7AA. Now, do they have enough depth and strength on the back end to make a run at a repeat?
3. Grand Rapids (12-12-1)
-The Thunderhawks haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut, but with Myles Gunderson in goal and a stout defense, they have proven they can hang with some very good teams, including a respectable showing against Andover a few weeks back. They at least have the formula for an upset, but we’ll see if they can execute it.
4. Cloquet-Esko-Carlton (15-8-1)
-In their final season in AA, the Lumberjacks have been respectable, and if they make it through the quarterfinals, they’ll certainly be motivated to spoil East’s season.
5. Coon Rapids
6. Forest Lake
7. Duluth Marshall (def. Northern Edge 15-1)
8. Blaine (def. Anoka 5-1)
9. Anoka (eliminated)
10. Northern Edge (eliminated)

8AA
QF 2/21 High Seed
SF 2/25 High Seed
F 3/1 TBD

1. Moorhead (16-9, #12)
-The Spuds are finding some momentum at the right time: they’ve won seven in a row, all of them pretty good wins either against section opponents or teams with some statewide cred. While this is not a total juggernaut, Aaron Reierson can score goals, Kai Weigel is strong in net, and they have enough pieces on the board to clearly stay a step ahead of an otherwise very even section.
2. Roseau (15-9-1, #17)
-A year after what seemed like a golden opportunity slipped away, the Rams are lurking here after a surprisingly strong regular season carried by the exploits of Noah Urness. Their two losses to Moorhead, however, show they do have a real gap to close to make a run at St. Paul. First, of course, they have to get to that title game, which has been half the battle in recent seasons. Does this great program still have some playoff magic in it?
3. Buffalo (13-10-2. #25)
-One of the late-season surprises are the Bison, who came on with wins over Wayzata and Rogers to suggest they can be a contender here. If they can earn themselves a road trip to Roseau, they have a chance to disrupt things dramatically here.
4. Sartell
5. St. Michael-Albertville
6. Elk River
7. Bemidji
8. St. Cloud (eliminated)
9. Brainerd (def. St. Cloud 4-3)

My work here is done! Enjoy the playoffs.

[ClassAGuy]

Official Section 2AA seeds:
1. Chanhassen
2. Minnetonka
3. Shakopee
4. Holy Family
5. Eden Prairie
6. Prior Lake
7. Chaska
8. Bloomington Jefferson

[InThePipes]

Official Section 2AA seeds:
1. Chanhassen
2. Minnetonka
3. Shakopee
4. Holy Family
5. Eden Prairie
6. Prior Lake
7. Chaska
8. Bloomington Jefferson

Not a stretch to see the 4/5 seed in the section final, should be a fun one to watch.

[ClassAGuy]

Official Section 3AA seeds:
1. St. Thomas Academy
2. Cretin-Derham Hall
3. Rosemount
4. Eastview
5. Park
6. Eagan
7. Apple Valley/Burnsville

[HSLinemaker]

Great Job Karl! I look forward to your writings each week. I am excited about the next few weeks. I am confident that there will be quite a few exciting surprises in the next few weeks.

[ClassAGuy]

Official Section 6AA seeds:
1. Wayzata
2. Edina
3. Benidle-St. Margaret's
4. St. Louis Park
5. Holy Angels
6. Blake
7. Robbinsdale Armstrong/Cooper
8. Hopkins

[Cookster]

With the 2AA seedings out, this will be the first time EP plays a quarterfinal road game since 1996. HF on a 12 game win streak, and finally got over the EP hump this year. While Tonka is a clear #1 team in the state, they have to play a pesky Chaska team, and most likely will face either a Chan team they lost to, an EP team they beat by 1 goal twice, or a Surging HF team in the final.

And that's why they play the games. Should be a fun week ahead. May have to do a triple header Saturday, with a noon Braemar (Tonka vs ??) followed by either 4pm Braemar (Chan vs ??) and a 7pm BIG (Edina vs BSM ) if seedings hold

For the record -- the last time Edina was not a top 4 seed I believe is 1987, and they went to state that year...

[ryguyMN]

With the 2AA seedings out, this will be the first time EP plays a quarterfinal road game since 1996.

I knew it had been a while. Thanks for that tidbit of information.

[ClassAGuy]

Official Section 4AA seeds:
1. White Bear Lake
2. Stillwater
3. Hill-Murray
4. Gentry Academy
5. Roseville
6. East Ridge
7. Woodbury
8. Tartan

[ClassAGuy]

Official Section 5AA seeds:
1. Rogers
2. Maple Grove
3. Champlin Park
4. Centennial
5. Totino-Grace
6. Mounds View
7. Osseo
8. Spring Lake Park
9. Irondale

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Champlin and Mounds View get to see each other just a few days after that absolute shellacking from yesterday

[ClassAGuy]

Official Section 1AA seeds:
1. Lakeville South
2. Rochester Mayo
3. Lakeville North
4. Hastings
5. Rochester Century
6. Owatonna
7. Rochester John Marshall
8. Farmington

All seeds are now in let the Playoffs BEGIN!!!

[karl(east)]

All sections have been updated with official seeds, and I made mild changes to the comments if it affected my comments on teams' games.

Thanks for all the support, as always! It continues to be good fun.