AA Rankings for 1/21/24

[karl(east)]

We’re into the last month of the regular season, with an entrenched top four. Even though some teams lost, there was about as little movement in the top 15 this week as I can remember, which shows how fixed some of these tiers are, though quite a few sections seem ripe for a quality run by someone down the stretch. For now, though, this is where we are:

1. Minnetonka (15-0-2)
-The Skippers logged a second blemish with a tie against an elite team before taking care of business against Eden Prairie. They’ve gone to overtime with each of the three teams right behind them; while they deserve credit for maintaining that zero in the loss column, their road to a repeat could well feature two teams that can skate right with them. They get a respite this week before single tough Lake games in each of their final three weeks.
This week: Thurs at St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. Chaska

2. Wayzata (14-0-2)
-Sorry, Buffalo. The Trojans now head out on a meaty three-game week that includes the first of the two Lake Conference collisions between their section archrival Edina, plus a road trip north to face some potential first round draws should they make it to the X. If they can do what Minnetonka couldn’t do this past week and beat Edina, they’ll have a solid argument for the top spot next week.
This week: Tues vs. #3 Edina, Thurs at Roseau, Sat at Moorhead

3. Edina (14-2-1)
-The Hornets’ strong showing against Minnetonka quelled any doubt about them after some flat scores against tough opponents: Curt Giles and company appear to be doubling down defensively and building toward the toughness they will need to knock off the somewhat more skilled teams ahead of them in these rankings. The Lake Conference meat grinder is in full force, as they head on the road to face two huge rivals, including a game they may need to get out of 3-seed position in the section. How do they stack up against their section frontrunner?
This week: Tues at #2 Wayzata, Sat at #9 Eden Prairie

4. Chanhassen (14-4)
-A firm win over Benilde keeps the Storm in the top tier, safely ahead of the mess below. Gentry this week offers some interest, but beyond that, only the rematch with Benilde seems to loom as a serious test between now and the end of the regular season.
This week: Tues vs. Gentry Academy, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson

5. Maple Grove (12-4)
-The Crimson maintained their methodical pace in wins over Champlin and Elk River. They’re not as flashy as the teams above them, but they have been steady, and in a year where few teams outside the top four have been, that’s enough to climb back into the 5-spot. They’re on the road up north this week, trading opponents with St. Thomas on Friday and Saturday.
This week: Fri at Grand Rapids, Sat at Hermantown

6. Shakopee (13-3-1)
-The Sabers continue to slide along here, taking care of South Suburban teams as others trade blows, though Lakeville North gave them more of a battle than one might have expected. The Gentry matchup this week has some intrigue for two programs trying to crash the party of the established contenders.
This week: Thurs vs. Gentry Academy

7. Rogers (11-5-2)
-The Royals, while down a few players, dug themselves a hole they could not escape against Centennial, and therefore drop a bit. I wouldn’t call it cause for alarm, but the final four in 5AA are looking like a very good race. They face a fringe factor in their section this week.
This week: Thurs at Totino-Grace

8. St. Thomas Academy (11-5-2)
-A tie against Stillwater isn’t terrible amid the Ponies’ recent success, but it doesn’t support the Cadets’ case to go any higher, either. They road trip north this week to face two tough teams, albeit ones a top ten AA team should probably beat.
This week: Fri at Hermantown, Sat at Grand Rapids

9. Eden Prairie (10-5-1)
-The Eagles grabbed a third straight shutout early in the week when they shut down Mahtomedi, but doing any damage against Minnetonka was a bridge too far. Now we’ll see if they can make anything of the Hornets.

This week: Thurs at Buffalo, Sat vs. #3 Edina

10. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (11-4-1)
-The Red Knights’ loss to Chanhassen continues their recent trend, and only their early win over Andover keeps them steady here in the top ten. They could use another quality win at this point, and Hill gives them a chance to get one on Saturday.
This week: Thurs at Waconia, Sat at #14 Hill-Murray

11. Andover (11-5-1)
-Anoka did not trouble the Huskies too much this past week. They now continue to make their way through unranked Northwest Suburban competition, with Coon Rapids being the most interesting of the bunch coming up.
This week: Tues vs. Blaine, Thurs at Spring Lake Park, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

12. Centennial (10-4-2)
-The Cougars served some notice with a win over Rogers, and while the Royals were a bit shorthanded, this coupled with the Andover tie and some other convincing wins has them moving up into the top 15 and threatening for a higher seed in 5AA. They’ll look to avenge an earlier loss to Champlin this week.
This week: Tues vs. Osseo, Thurs vs. Champlin Park

13. Rosemount (13-5)
-The Irish took care of Eagan, but needed overtime to get past Apple Valley/Burnsville, which really just entrenches them more in the not-quite-top-ten class. They carry on with conference games they should win for a bit now.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North

14. Hill-Murray (9-5-2)
-Give credit to the Pioneers: when it seems like things aren’t going well, they find ways. The win over Stillwater has them back in the driver’s seat for the 4AA top seed, and they escaped a visit to Grand Rapids with a win, too.
This week: Thurs at Mahtomedi, Sat vs. #10 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

15. Holy Family (10-4-1)
-The Fire straightened some things out with a 3-win week, with a victory over Holy Angels being the most useful ranking-wise, but a narrow win over scrappy Sartell doesn’t boost their case. They get some good North Dakota competition next.
This week: Thurs vs Grand Forks Red River (ND)

The Next Ten

Stillwater (7-6-1)
-The Pony hype train slowed a bit with a loss to Hill, and they couldn’t quite finish off St. Thomas in a tie, but they have proven they belong in the conversation. A three-game week headlined by a rising Park team awaits them.

White Bear Lake (12-3-1)
-A win over Hermantown headlined a strong swing north for the Bears, who are edging back upward in the utter cluster that is the 4AA top four. Mounds View is their lone upcoming game.

Gentry Academy (15-3)
-Rochester Lourdes’ visit to the Stars went about as well as one would expect. Now, however, we get a mood shift, as they finally get a chance at two top ten teams. Can they compete on that statewide level? If nothing else, it will be a valuable exercise for those of us trying to rank them.

Lakeville South (10-6)
-The Cougars scraped their way to a couple of decent wins, knocking off Prior Lake and Delano by twin 2-1 scores. The rematch with North is this week, which will help show if there is any window for a surprise in 1AA.

Roseau (13-3-1)
-There’s no shame in a tie with East Grand Forks, and it doesn’t move the Rams here much. They now embark on a huge two-week stretch for their playoff positioning, with their three games this week including a Bemidji team that beat them in December, a visit from Wayzata, and a Hockey Day showdown with their most famed of rivals.

Eastview (10-6-1)
-The Lightning’s tie with Cretin just goes to show how tight 3AA is this season. They’ll try to strengthen their record against Farmington and Prior Lake this week.

Moorhead (6-9-1)
-The Spuds made short work of St. Cloud and seem to be gathering a bit of momentum now. We’ll see if they fare any better against Wayzata than they did in their 6-1 November loss.

Champlin Park (9-8-1)
-The Rebels put up a strong fight in a losing cause against Maple Grove, so there’s certainly no cause to drop them. They can put themselves on track for the 3-seed in 5AA with a second win over Centennial this week; a second loss, on the other hand, would probably stick them with the 4, given the Cougars’ overall record. Totino also looms in a potential quarterfinal preview.

Cretin-Derham Hall (8-6-1)
-A tie with Eastview and a blowout win over Woodbury make for a good week for the Raiders, who reappear in the top 25 here; it keeps alive whatever slim chance they have of getting a home quarterfinal and shows they remain right there with anyone in 3AA if they can get it going. They’ll try to build some momentum against Blake and Forest Lake this week.

Grand Rapids (9-9)
-The Thunderhawks were plenty competitive against White Bear and Hill but came up empty, and the losses are amounting amid an anemic offensive output. The tough games keep coming this week when Maple Grove and St. Thomas Academy come to visit.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Thanks Karl, always enjoy your rankings analysis on Sunday mornings. A couple of observations on this week's rankings:

We're in complete agreement that the top 4 are the cream of the crop. The year will end as a tough pill to swallow for 2 of those teams - two of those top four aren't even going to make it to State, yet if they had, they'd be among the tippy top of favorites to win it all.

Rankings are, of course, malleable and subject to week-by-week fluctuations. So in no way, shape or form am I criticizing your rankings. To the contrary, I think they're pretty spot-on. For fun, however, here is a blind comparison of 3 teams:

Team 1
10-5-1 record
#21 ranked SOS
Best results: win over BSM, tie with Wayzata

Team 2
9-5-2 record
#15 ranked SOS
Best results: win over EP, win over STA, tie with Hermantown

Team 3
11-5-2 record
#19 ranked SOS
Best results: win over Edina, win over BSM

Team 1 is ranked #9
Team 2 is ranked #14
Team 3 is ranked #8

Any guesses before the big reveal?

Team 1: Eden Prairie
Team 2: Hill Murray
Team 3: St Thomas Academy

Each of these team's best results are, in my opinion, pretty even. One doesn't stand out necessarily from the others. Same with overall records, and with strength of schedule. Yet Hill finds themselves 5 and 6 spots behind the other two in the rankings. Like I said, I don't necessarily disagree with the rankings. But I would be curious to get your thoughts on how you placed these 3 in the rankings. I feel like Hill is getting dinged because of (1) high expectations to begin the year (2) a poor showing against Chanhassen, Tonka & Wayzata and (3) the loss to Two Rivers. But if you look at their overall body of work, it's IMO absolutely comparable to EP and STA.

Again, I don't know that Hill should be any higher right now. Maybe a little. Maybe EP or STA should be a little lower. Good news is, it'll all get sorted!

[ryguyMN]

Thanks Karl, always enjoy your rankings analysis on Sunday mornings. A couple of observations on this week's rankings:

We're in complete agreement that the top 4 are the cream of the crop. The year will end as a tough pill to swallow for 2 of those teams - two of those top four aren't even going to make it to State, yet if they had, they'd be among the tippy top of favorites to win it all.

Rankings are, of course, malleable and subject to week-by-week fluctuations. So in no way, shape or form am I criticizing your rankings. To the contrary, I think they're pretty spot-on. For fun, however, here is a blind comparison of 3 teams:

Team 1
10-5-1 record
#21 ranked SOS
Best results: win over BSM, tie with Wayzata

Team 2
9-5-2 record
#15 ranked SOS
Best results: win over EP, win over STA, tie with Hermantown

Team 3
11-5-2 record
#19 ranked SOS
Best results: win over Edina, win over BSM

Team 1 is ranked #9
Team 2 is ranked #14
Team 3 is ranked #8

Any guesses before the big reveal?

Team 1: Eden Prairie
Team 2: Hill Murray
Team 3: St Thomas Academy

Each of these team's best results are, in my opinion, pretty even. One doesn't stand out necessarily from the others. Same with overall records, and with strength of schedule. Yet Hill finds themselves 5 and 6 spots behind the other two in the rankings. Like I said, I don't necessarily disagree with the rankings. But I would be curious to get your thoughts on how you placed these 3 in the rankings. I feel like Hill is getting dinged because of (1) high expectations to begin the year (2) a poor showing against Chanhassen, Tonka & Wayzata and (3) the loss to Two Rivers. But if you look at their overall body of work, it's IMO absolutely comparable to EP and STA.

Again, I don't know that Hill should be any higher right now. Maybe a little. Maybe EP or STA should be a little lower. Good news is, it'll all get sorted!

In Karl's defense, the computer ranking systems (PageStat, QRF, and LSQ), which attempt to rank more objectively, don't have Hill in their top 10 either.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Thanks Karl, always enjoy your rankings analysis on Sunday mornings. A couple of observations on this week's rankings:

We're in complete agreement that the top 4 are the cream of the crop. The year will end as a tough pill to swallow for 2 of those teams - two of those top four aren't even going to make it to State, yet if they had, they'd be among the tippy top of favorites to win it all.

Rankings are, of course, malleable and subject to week-by-week fluctuations. So in no way, shape or form am I criticizing your rankings. To the contrary, I think they're pretty spot-on. For fun, however, here is a blind comparison of 3 teams:

Team 1
10-5-1 record
#21 ranked SOS
Best results: win over BSM, tie with Wayzata

Team 2
9-5-2 record
#15 ranked SOS
Best results: win over EP, win over STA, tie with Hermantown

Team 3
11-5-2 record
#19 ranked SOS
Best results: win over Edina, win over BSM

Team 1 is ranked #9
Team 2 is ranked #14
Team 3 is ranked #8

Any guesses before the big reveal?

Team 1: Eden Prairie
Team 2: Hill Murray
Team 3: St Thomas Academy

Each of these team's best results are, in my opinion, pretty even. One doesn't stand out necessarily from the others. Same with overall records, and with strength of schedule. Yet Hill finds themselves 5 and 6 spots behind the other two in the rankings. Like I said, I don't necessarily disagree with the rankings. But I would be curious to get your thoughts on how you placed these 3 in the rankings. I feel like Hill is getting dinged because of (1) high expectations to begin the year (2) a poor showing against Chanhassen, Tonka & Wayzata and (3) the loss to Two Rivers. But if you look at their overall body of work, it's IMO absolutely comparable to EP and STA.

Again, I don't know that Hill should be any higher right now. Maybe a little. Maybe EP or STA should be a little lower. Good news is, it'll all get sorted!

In Karl's defense, the computer ranking systems (PageStat, QRF, and LSQ), which attempt to rank more objectively, don't have Hill in their top 10 either.

Thanks Ryan. Good to know. I don’t think Hill is currently a top 10 team - maybe borderline top 10-ish, which is more or less where they’re currently ranked. I’d probably put them a spot or maybe 2 higher, but that’s it. I do think they’re resume matches up with teams like EP and STA, and those teams are ranked somewhat notably higher.

Just to reiterate: None of this is questioning Karl or really even disputing the rankings. Just find it interesting. If Hill can somehow come out of this next week with two wins under their belt, I’ll expect them to be ranked 9 or 10

[Slap Shot]

2. Wayzata (14-0-2)
-Sorry, Buffalo. The Trojans now head out on a meaty three-game week that includes the first of the two Lake Conference collisions between their section archrival Edina, plus a road trip north to face some potential first round draws should they make it to the X. If they can do what Minnetonka couldn’t do this past week and beat Edina, they’ll have a solid argument for the top spot next week.

Short of Tonka crapping the bad vs. their 2 opponents imho it would be a mistake to move Wayzata to #1 regardless of what they do this week. Both Wayzata and Edina get 1 more chance each to prove themselves vs. #1 in the regular season.

[Nostalgic Nerd]

Tonka and Wayzata still undefeated. Pretty good.

Looks like Roseau will be heading to St. Paul this year.

[StanleyCup55]

Now just Tonka. Wayzata may not even make it to St Paul

[ryguyMN]

Thanks Ryan. Good to know. I don’t think Hill is currently a top 10 team - maybe borderline top 10-ish, which is more or less where they’re currently ranked. I’d probably put them a spot or maybe 2 higher, but that’s it. I do think they’re resume matches up with teams like EP and STA, and those teams are ranked somewhat notably higher.

Just to reiterate: None of this is questioning Karl or really even disputing the rankings. Just find it interesting. If Hill can somehow come out of this next week with two wins under their belt, I’ll expect them to be ranked 9 or 10

LSQ put Hill in at 10 with their 1/25 rankings.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Thanks Ryan. Good to know. I don’t think Hill is currently a top 10 team - maybe borderline top 10-ish, which is more or less where they’re currently ranked. I’d probably put them a spot or maybe 2 higher, but that’s it. I do think they’re resume matches up with teams like EP and STA, and those teams are ranked somewhat notably higher.

Just to reiterate: None of this is questioning Karl or really even disputing the rankings. Just find it interesting. If Hill can somehow come out of this next week with two wins under their belt, I’ll expect them to be ranked 9 or 10

LSQ put Hill in at 10 with their 1/25 rankings.

Guess all that whining I've been accused of doing works

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Thanks Ryan. Good to know. I don’t think Hill is currently a top 10 team - maybe borderline top 10-ish, which is more or less where they’re currently ranked. I’d probably put them a spot or maybe 2 higher, but that’s it. I do think they’re resume matches up with teams like EP and STA, and those teams are ranked somewhat notably higher.

Just to reiterate: None of this is questioning Karl or really even disputing the rankings. Just find it interesting. If Hill can somehow come out of this next week with two wins under their belt, I’ll expect them to be ranked 9 or 10

LSQ put Hill in at 10 with their 1/25 rankings.

Guess all that whining I've been accused of doing works

Working the refs works.