AA Rankings for 1/28/24

[karl(east)]

There are three weeks left in the regular season, and the top four remain clear, albeit with a small shift within them this week. After that? Your guess is as good as mine. Rankings:

1. Minnetonka (17-0-2)
-This one remains a constant, as the Skippers obliterated two lesser opponents while their fellow undefeated finally hit a bump. They now get a rematch against one of the two teams to tie them, though the rankings have shifted.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Wayzata, Sat at Buffalo

2. Edina (16-2-1)
-For the first time since preseason, we have a change in this spot. The Hornets may not be as dominant as Minnetonka or Wayzata, but they have the depth and the structure to hold up against both, and that frees their skilled players to create good chances in transition. The win over Wayzata was a statement, and they then blitzed rival Eden Prairie to keep the beat going. Curt Giles has to be pleased with the execution on the formula right now; can they continue to build, or are they peaking too soon? The annual home-and-home with Hill awaits.
This week: Fri at #14 Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #14 Hill-Murray

3. Wayzata (16-1-2)
-The Trojans fell from the ranks of the undefeated with a loss to Edina. With at least one and very possibly two more meetings with the Hornets to come, this defeat doesn’t have great consequences, but it dents any aura of invincibility the Trojans may have. If it does ask any questions, it may be about who will step up and score the big goals: their top line, while superb in puck control, did not have quite the incisiveness of Edina’s. Thursday’s game with Roseau was a bit adventurous too, though they locked down well on Hockey Day against Moorhead. They can forget any doubts that emerged this past week with a strong showing on Thursday.
This week: Tues vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Thurs at #1 Minnetonka

4. Chanhassen (16-4)
-The Storm made short work of Gentry to stay right on the heels of the top three. As the Lake teams continue their drawn-out chess matches, they’ll aim to continue amassing big points.
This week: Thurs vs. St. Louis Park

5. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (13-4-1)
-The fifth spot in the rankings remains the kiss of death, so in desperation we cycle back to an old occupant who still have a better record against other teams in the following clump than anyone else in the mix. The Red Knights rallied back up the rankings with a solid win over Hill, giving them their biggest win in a while and showing it wasn’t all just early success. A busy week ahead includes a Class A top team and a section rival that tied them over the holidays.
This week: Tues at New Prague, Thurs vs. Orono, Sat vs. Holy Angels

6. Shakopee (14-3-1)
-It’s not always pretty, but this team keeps finding ways to win, and they did so again this past week against Gentry. I have my worries about them, and they could either prove them prescient or continue to solidify this lofty ranking, depending on their performance against two good-but-not-elite teams this week.
This week: Tues at Eagan, Thurs vs #15 Holy Family, Sat at Lakeville South

7. Maple Grove (13-5)
-The Crimson’s trip north was a mixed bag, with a questionable loss to Grand Rapids followed by a dramatic win over Hermantown. This range of the rankings is sloppy enough that they don’t fall much, but it keeps them right in this general mess in 5-10, somewhat more consistent than the others but by no means on some other level. The week ahead is an easier one, though Totino did just pull a big 5AA upset that makes them worth watching.
This week: Thurs at Totino-Grace, Sat vs. Blake

8. Andover (14-5-1)
-No real troubles for the Huskies in a bunch of conference wins this past week, with the Coon Rapids win being the highlight. The week ahead could be a bit more interesting, as they face a sneaky Elk River team and then their chief rival for the 7AA crown, a team that is coming in hot off two substantial wins against front-line teams.
This week: Thurs vs. Elk River, Fri at Grand Rapids

9. St. Thomas Academy (12-6-2)
-The Cadets are committing to their defensive style, which served them well against Hermantown but kept them a bit short against surprising Grand Rapids. This is life in this system. On paper they should be able to grab a few wins now.
This week: Thurs at Mahtomedi, Sat vs. Hastings

10. Rosemount (14-5)
-The Irish put Lakeville North in running time and continue to drift about in this neighborhood of the rankings as other teams rise and fall. Prior Lake is something of an upset threat this coming week.
This week: Tues vs. Prior Lake, Thurs vs. Farmington

11. Centennial (12-4-2)
-Reasons for excitement continue to build for the Cougars, as they avenged an earlier loss with a blowout win over Champlin and are 8-0-1 over the past month. They can shore up this positioning against some teams a bit behind them this coming week.
This week: Wed vs. Duluth East, Sat at White Bear Lake

12. Eden Prairie (11-6-1)
-The Eagles did not have a banner week after scraping by Buffalo and serving up nine to Edina, and I’m turning into a skeptic again. Two games against Suburban East competition this week give them a chance to either shore up their status as a top ten contender or further dump them into the muddle.
This week: Tues vs. White Bear Lake, Fri vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. Stillwater

13. Rogers (11-6-2)
-Pull the fire alarm: a loss to improving Centennial is one thing, but falling to Totino is another. They’re down players, yes, but they may be playing their way into a worse seed in 5AA, and they don’t want this sort of thing to totally snowball on them. A visit to Stillwater feels like another potential trap.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Thurs at Anoka

14. Hill-Murray (10-6-2)
-It seemed like the Pioneers might be flipping the switch and getting rolling when they took apart Mahtomedi, but a clunker against Benilde shows the ceiling may not be as high as in some past seasons. They’ve typically fared well in the coming home-and-home with the Hornets, but can they muster that again in a year with a real gap in ability?
This week: Tues at South St. Paul, Fri vs. #2 Edina, Sat at #2 Edina

15. Holy Family (11-4-1)
-An overtime win over Grand Forks Red River is no slouch, so the Fire hold steady. An important section test against Shakopee awaits, and they can avenge one of their poorer losses by beating Delano, too.
This week: Tues vs. Delano, Thurs at #6 Shakopee, Sat vs. Totino-Grace

The Next Ten

Stillwater (10-6-1)
-The Ponies stampeded over three conference opponents and are lurking here, ready to climb if they can keep the momentum going. I’m fascinated to see what they can make of struggling Rogers, and with Eden Prairie also on the docket, is has the chance to be a big week on the St. Croix.

White Bear Lake (13-3-1)
-Handled Mounds View in their only action this past week. The next two weeks give them some interesting nonconference action; like Stillwater they get a crack at Eden Prairie this week, and surging Centennial will be a great test to see where this team stands.

Grand Rapids (12-9)
-The Thunderhawks made a splash this past weekend, toppling two top ten Metro powers on their visits north. With wins over Eden Prairie, Maple Grove, and St. Thomas, this team has shown it’s a legitimate threat to beat anyone in the 5-15 tier, although their body of work still holds them back a bit in these rankings. They’ll look to put the exclamation point on this run against Andover this week.

Gentry Academy (15-5)
-The Stars couldn’t win either of their games against top ten teams, though they held up well enough against Shakopee that it doesn’t hurt their standing here too much. Up-and-down Coon Rapids headlines the coming week.

Roseau (14-5-1)
-The Rams acquitted themselves fairly well against Wayzata, but they couldn’t crash Warroad’s Hockey Day party and dropped a second straight game, settling further into this spot in the rankings. All eyes are now on the rematch with Moorhead, where they’ll try to make a statement against the team that, despite records and rankings, has to remain the favorite in 8AA until someone beats them.

Lakeville South (12-6)
-A narrow victory over rival North suddenly adds some intrigue to 1AA and raises some questions here. They’re the unquestioned favorite, but can a hungry upstart take them down? The possibility is there, closer than ever. Cretin and Shakopee, two other ranked teams, will give that result a bit more context.

Cretin-Derham Hall (10-6-1)
-The Raiders logged twin 4-0 wins over middling competition. Their busy push to the end starts out with a visit to Lakeville South in a game that matters for this section of the rankings, if nothing else.

Eastview (11-7-1)
-A loss to Prior Lake sets the Lightning back some, and is their first real blemish here. Chaska and Mounds View are on the schedule this week.

Moorhead (7-10-1)
-It was the sort of week that sums up the Spuds’ season: taking care of business against an 8AA opponent, but struggling to keep up with a statewide power. Can they be anything more than this? The week ahead will be a huge one in that regard: they host two of the top three teams in Class A and duel Roseau for the top seed in the section.

Champlin Park (10-9-1)
-The Rebels could not keep pace with Centennial after beating the Cougars the first time around, but they salvaged their week by beating Totino to likely claim the 4-seed in 5AA. They host a couple of northern visitors, Duluth East and Cloquet, this coming week.

And now, the sections look:

1AA
21 Lakeville South
New Prague
Rochester Century/John Marshall
Owatonna
-While South should be locked into the top seed, the narrow game with North does open a window here. New Prague pulled out an overtime win over Century/John Marshall this past week, which has them in 2-seed position, and Century/John Marshall’s Thursday meeting with Owatonna, whom they tied the first time around, will decide the order between those two. The question then becomes how to value North’s six wins against a South Suburban schedule versus the southern not-so-suburban schedules of New Prague, Century/JM, and Owatonna. Do they drop as far as the five-seed, with all three of them having decently good seasons? It’s a real possibility.

2AA
1 Minnetonka
4 Chanhassen
6 Shakopee
12 Eden Prairie
15 Holy Family
-For as loaded as this section is, there’s not much drama on the seeding front. One and two are set, and Holy Family has tailed out of the discussion for a top three spot. Shakopee is the one team whose fate remains somewhat uncertain, with games left against Holy Family and Prior Lake; a loss or two could drop the Sabers to the 5-seed and shift the rest up by individual slots. The rest, I think, is just about set.

3AA
9 St. Thomas Academy
10 Rosemount
23 Eastview
Park of Cottage Grove
22 Cretin-Derham Hall
-By body of work, St. Thomas and Rosemount are pulling away from the rest a bit here, though their scores with the other teams don’t suggest they’re in some different class. Rosemount can probably lock in this order with a second win over Eastview, while the Lightning would have a case for the 2-seed by winning that rematch. Park and Cretin have a rematch in the season’s final week that could flip the 4-5 seeds, but those two are probably playing each other in the first round anyway.

4AA
14 Hill-Murray
16 Stillwater
17 White Bear Lake
19 Gentry Academy
-The top four are done with games among each other here, so this might just be the order. With Stillwater’s recent burst and White Bear holding up pretty well, Gentry probably hasn’t done enough against real competition to go higher than the 4-seed, and even in a down year, Hill has probably done enough to be the top seed.

5AA
7 Maple Grove
11 Centennial
13 Rogers
25 Champlin Park
-While other sections fall in line, this one has gone nuts over the past few weeks. Maple Grove, with its consistency, controls its destiny for the top seed in games with Totino and Centennial over the next two weeks. If Centennial wins that game with the Crimson, though, the Cougars will have a compelling case for the top spot; unlike Maple Grove they did beat Rogers, and have avenged their lone section loss, which came against Champlin. Champlin, after the win over Totino, is in 4-seed position. I’m not sure Rogers, with recent losses to Centennial and Totino, can do any better than the 3-seed, unless Centennial beats Maple Grove and the Crimson struggle down the stretch. Coon Rapids, lacking any quality section wins, is probably relegated to the 6-seed.

6AA
2 Edina
3 Wayzata
5 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Holy Angels
-Edina’s win over Wayzata leaves us in a transitive property loop between the top three, but between the Holy Angels tie and the extra losses probably leave Benilde doomed to no more than a 3-seed, leaving the second Edina-Wayzata game on the final day of the regular season to decide the order of the top two. Holy Angels could play a disruptor role with games against Benilde and Wayzata, and a good showing in those two could get them into the 3-seed.

7AA
8 Andover
18 Grand Rapids
Duluth East
Rock Ridge
-Andover’s body of work is unmatched in this section while Rapids has proven it can be dangerous with a couple of quality wins, so the top two are set, with a game between the two this Friday to show us just what kind of a race this is. Duluth East is in position for the three-seed after sweeping a home-and-home with Rock Ridge, though both of those teams have games remaining with Duluth Marshall, which has at least some shot of climbing into the picture here.

8AA
24 Moorhead
20 Roseau
Sartell
Elk River
-The top two appear to be safe in their positioning, with the rematch on Thursday determining who gets the top seed and who is second. Elk River and Sartell have separated themselves somewhat from the rest, with the Sabers building a strong record and looking tough in bigger games and the Elks doing the most damage of anyone against non-8AA competition. Those two play this week, which could provide a lot of clarity for the 3-and 4-seeds. Brainerd has beaten Sartell once and plays them again; with a decent overall record, they could crash the party. The scary team here is Buffalo, which has too weak a record to get too good of a seed, but has a couple decent wins and is getting some serious preparation in the Lake Conference gauntlet. With so many games left and so many teams close together, though, I don’t want to guarantee too much more here yet.

[CrimsonCakeEater]

2. Edina (16-2-1)
-For the first time since preseason, we have a change in this spot. The Hornets may not be as dominant as Minnetonka or Wayzata, but they have the depth and the structure to hold up against both, and that frees their skilled players to create good chances in transition. The win over Wayzata was a statement, and they then blitzed rival Eden Prairie to keep the beat going. Curt Giles has to be pleased with the execution on the formula right now; can they continue to build, or are they peaking too soon? The annual home-and-home with Hill awaits.
This week: Fri at #14 Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #14 Hill-Murray

Gonna have to disagree with Edina not being as dominant as Wayzata, although I’ll certainly give you Minnetonka. 9-3 wins over Eden Prairie and Holy Family and 4-1 wins over STA and Wayzata—none of which involved empty-netters—since the calendar turned over is certainly as, if not more impressive than anything anyone else has done since the new year started. Obviously the Buffalo result was a head scratcher but a win is a win and their results versus the top teams this month speaks for itself. Amazingly, they have the inside track to the Lake Conference title now, not that anyone really cares all that much about that anymore.

[WestMetro]

Great work on the rankings !

We enjoyed seeing Karl at the Wayzata Edina game Tuesday!

And then we finally met Sparlimb who was in town from SoCal
at the Hill BSM game Saturday !

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Great work on the rankings !

We enjoyed seeing Karl at the Wayzata Edina game Tuesday!

And then we finally met Sparlimb who was in town from SoCal
at the Hill BSM game Saturday !

You saw Karl? The man, the myth, the legend? Wow.

Did you touch the hem of his garment?

[Brodziak Fan Club]

Pagestat still really likes Eden Prairie (AA #6) and is really meh about St. Thomas (AA #14).

It sees Minnetonka as clearly ahead of #2 Chanhassen (.86 goals)

#2 Chanhassen, #3 Wayzata, and #4 Edina are all within .38 goals of each other. It then drops off significantly with #5 Maple Grove 1.57 goals behind Edina.

[WestMetro]

Great work on the rankings !

We enjoyed seeing Karl at the Wayzata Edina game Tuesday!

And then we finally met Sparlimb who was in town from SoCal
at the Hill BSM game Saturday !

You saw Karl? The man, the myth, the legend? Wow.

Did you touch the hem of his garment?

Yes , he is real!! And yes we did shake hands and get a photo with him for the legacy !

https://x.com/fabfivehockeyf1/status/17 ... vqsuVEoBFA

But so many hundreds of people now recognize the oracle , that we had a 15 minute wait in line between periods to talk with him!

[SEC Scotty]

So many celebrities. Would be nice to hear a little commentary on the game.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Ok I can't take it anymore, we're all ignoring the elephant in the room.

Currently, as I read it, Hill and the upstart Dos Rios are tied atop the Tradition Rich Metro East, with 18 points apiece. STA trails with 14 points. 2 Rivers can net another 8 points (Mahtomedi and an end of season tilt with STA.) Hill has only 6 more points possible (SSP and STA.)

With the Zephyrs looking more anemic than anyone of us can recall, and STA slumping, the no-longer-Indian-Warriors are in control their own destiny. The confluence of down years for The Usual Suspects offers them the rare opportunity for a conference championship. The Monday game at Mahtomedi is clearly the Game of the Week and looms large.

Hill won the first game agin' STA, and it's always been tough for either of the two to sweep the season series. We've become accustomed to TRMC teams playing for and winning state championships. And despite the unlikelihood of that this season, there's plenty of intrigue in the conference for the balance of the season.

[Slap Shot]

Edina and Wayzata are definitely good enough to win the whole thing and have already proven themselves against Minnetonka. Unless Tonka blitzes either in their 2nd match-ups that opinion won't change for me.

. It's a shame that a few of the sections house most of the top teams.

[SEC Scotty]

So East side? What tell hell!

[karl(east)]

A few stray comments:

My "not as dominant" comment in regards to Edina wasn't about their overall body of work so much as their gameplay. They got outshot by a lot by Wayzata, and while the shots were closer in the Tonka game, I thought they were outchanced; I would not say they controlled the pace of the game against either, though the Wayzata game shots were not reflective of the quality of the chances. I can see why that wasn't obvious from what I wrote, though.

To answer why my rankings differ with PageStat on teams like EP, STA, and the Hill discussion from last week's rankings thread that I neglected to respond to: my foundational metric has generally been quality wins. And while a lot more goes into it than this, just starting with these lists gives you an idea of why STA is hanging on in the top 10:

STA: Centennial, Edina, Benilde, Hermantown, plus Moorhead and Cretin; tie with Holy Family
Hill: St. Thomas and Eden Prairie, plus Champlin; tie with Hermantown
Eden Prairie: Benilde plus Moorhead; tie with Wayzata

[SEC Scotty]

Lectern has worked the refs for years.

[headsupsticksdown]

Don’t get me wrong, Edina definitely looked like the better team but that 5 minute major on EP was a killer. It was 1-1 and 3 minutes later was 5-1 Hornets after scoring 4 during the length of the penalty. It showed in the Wayzata game as well, but Edina is freakishly accurate on their shots. They seemed to score on nearly every good look they took. I don’t think I’ve seen a more accurate shooting team in a while. I’ve said it before, but nobody should want to play them right now.

[Brodziak Fan Club]

A few stray comments:

My "not as dominant" comment in regards to Edina wasn't about their overall body of work so much as their gameplay. They got outshot by a lot by Wayzata, and while the shots were closer in the Tonka game, I thought they were outchanced; I would not say they controlled the pace of the game against either, though the Wayzata game shots were not reflective of the quality of the chances. I can see why that wasn't obvious from what I wrote, though.

To answer why my rankings differ with PageStat on teams like EP, STA, and the Hill discussion from last week's rankings thread that I neglected to respond to: my foundational metric has generally been quality wins. And while a lot more goes into it than this, just starting with these lists gives you an idea of why STA is hanging on in the top 10:

STA: Centennial, Edina, Benilde, Hermantown, plus Moorhead and Cretin; tie with Holy Family
Hill: St. Thomas and Eden Prairie, plus Champlin; tie with Hermantown
Eden Prairie: Benilde plus Moorhead; tie with Wayzata

Karl, I want to clarify that I wasn’t disagreeing with your rankings. Just providing some context I think is interesting.

[BlueLineSpecial]

I watched them get beat last night, despite the same horseshit, Homer, officiating you get used to.

Swearing, name calling - you always bring your best, Scotty. Never change. And enjoy the ban!

Also, for someone who claims they don't care about Hill, you went to the game???? Or paid to watch it? Things are getting weird on the east side!

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

SEC loyalists: Why don't you get back to us after you hang some banners?

The TRMC

[WarmUpTheBus]

Does anyone have some special insight into what's up at Rogers? They looked like a top 5 team coming into the season but have had some puzzling losses.

[bardown27]

Does anyone have some special insight into what's up at Rogers? They looked like a top 5 team coming into the season but have had some puzzling losses.

Jenson out for the year, Bumgarner at youth Olympics right now

[Delayedoffsides]

Does anyone have some special insight into what's up at Rogers? They looked like a top 5 team coming into the season but have had some puzzling losses.

Horrible Head Coach. Can’t win big games. Usually out coached in games of importance.