The "Republicans are Coming" Factor

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 9:54 am

Calvin Griffith often said: "Id never trade an everyday player for a pitcher. "

Torrii Hunter said: "You will miss me more than Santana"

Calvin used to say a lot of stupid things and Torii is sounding a little self absorbed lately but the point these 2 very different baseball men are making is that a pitcher who goes out there 35 times a year might not have that much impact on a team's success. Certainly not as much as an everyday player.

Lets see about that this year.

Santana, of course, would have been the opening day starter and he would have pitched in the spot in the rotation occupied now by Livan Hernandez.

So far , the Twins are 2-0 in that game.

Now, its going to be anything but scientific because we dont know how Santana would have pitched but we will use his performance for reference when the Twins lose when Livan starts.

So, for example, if the Twins would have lost in Livans last start by 4-3, we will use Santana's last start (1 run in 7 inns) and say that they would have won and its a minus 1 event.

So far the Adios Santana factor is at zero.

Obviously, whether a game would have been won if Sanatana was still here can be the subject of discussion.

But let's see what not spending 23 millon a year cost the Twins in the way of wins.

Irishmans Shanty · Post by **Irishmans Shanty** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 12:13 pm

From the opposite side of this I wonder how many more wins Santana will have now that he's throwing for team that spends a little more $$$ on its bats.

Sorry Johan, you can run but you can't hide.

innings: 7
hits: 7
runs: 1
BB: 0
SO: 3
Decision: Loss

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 12:49 pm

Irishmans Shanty wrote:From the opposite side of this I wonder how many more wins Santana will have now that he's throwing for team that spends a little more $$$ on its bats.

An interesting question indeed but the inquiry here is: Will it matter to the Mets. If they can score 7, how many more games will they win because they have Santana? Lets keep track of that too.

Likewise, if the Twins cant hit, what good would it do to have Sanatna. See the Mets loss yesterday for example.

Was ole Calvin right?

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 12:56 pm

Govs93 wrote:
I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

xxxxxxxxx

Irishmans Shanty · Post by **Irishmans Shanty** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 1:32 pm

Santana can hit alright.

Maybe the Twins should've converted him to an outfielder long ago and then used him as a closer.

I remember Mark Kotsay trotting in from centerfield to close down the championship game of the College World Series.

Santana is just a great athlete, some of these pitchers aren't. Did anyone see Weaver react to that ball that Gomez hit off a speaker in his first AB of the opener. Weaver can throw, but that's it.

Neutron 14 · Post by **Neutron 14** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 1:35 pm

Irishmans Shanty wrote: Did anyone see Weaver react to that ball that Gomez hit off a speaker in his first AB of the opener. Weaver can throw, but that's it.

He looked like a newborn giraffe going after it. Hilarious...

Irishmans Shanty · Post by **Irishmans Shanty** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 1:54 pm

Neutron 14 wrote:He looked like a newborn giraffe going after it. Hilarious...

Graceful....like a newborn giraffe

this could be a great thread some day

Neutron 14 · Post by **Neutron 14** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 2:05 pm

Irishmans Shanty wrote:
Neutron 14 wrote:He looked like a newborn giraffe going after it. Hilarious...
Graceful....like a newborn giraffe this could be a great thread some day

Its got "Thin Books" written all over it....

ChrisK · Post by **ChrisK** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:44 pm

Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

If Gardy at some point decides that Tolbert is the best option there, I could be proven wrong, but even then I think I've got a shot.

I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.

Neutron 14 · Post by **Neutron 14** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:49 pm

ChrisK wrote:
Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

If Gardy at some point decides that Tolbert is the best option there, I could be proven wrong, but even then I think I've got a shot.
I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.

Well since Govs will have 20 times more posts than you Chris, its only fair that he should "ratio" 1 giraffe into every 20 posts too!

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:50 pm

ChrisK wrote:
Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

If Gardy at some point decides that Tolbert is the best option there, I could be proven wrong, but even then I think I've got a shot.
I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.

Uff-da! All season long? That might be tough. How's about each other's signatures up for grabs? If I win, I get to write/create your signature and you hang on to it for a month. If you win, you create/write mine for a month. Put the word giraffe in that if you'd like.

At least that way I don't have to come up with a unique Cargo/graceful/giraffe line 400 times a day (I think that's about the pace I'm on, isn't fellas?!).

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:51 pm

Neutron 14 wrote:
ChrisK wrote:
Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

If Gardy at some point decides that Tolbert is the best option there, I could be proven wrong, but even then I think I've got a shot.
I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.
Well since Govs will have 20 times more posts than you Chris, its only fair that he should "ratio" 1 giraffe into every 20 posts too!

JINX!!! (see my post above).

Neutron 14 · Post by **Neutron 14** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 3:56 pm

Govs93 wrote:
JINX!!! (see my post above).

You copy me and then jinx me? What kind of giraffe do you take me for?

EREmpireStrikesBack · Post by **EREmpireStrikesBack** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 4:56 pm

Govs93 wrote:
ChrisK wrote:
Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

If Gardy at some point decides that Tolbert is the best option there, I could be proven wrong, but even then I think I've got a shot.
I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.
Uff-da! All season long? That might be tough. How's about each other's signatures up for grabs? If I win, I get to write/create your signature and you hang on to it for a month. If you win, you create/write mine for a month. Put the word giraffe in that if you'd like.

At least that way I don't have to come up with a unique Cargo/graceful/giraffe line 400 times a day (I think that's about the pace I'm on, isn't fellas?!).

Weak. ChrisK was able to work conundrum into every post for quite awhile. I'm sure you could come up with giraffe no problem.

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 5:06 pm

EREmpireStrikesBack wrote:
Govs93 wrote:
ChrisK wrote: I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.
Uff-da! All season long? That might be tough. How's about each other's signatures up for grabs? If I win, I get to write/create your signature and you hang on to it for a month. If you win, you create/write mine for a month. Put the word giraffe in that if you'd like.

At least that way I don't have to come up with a unique Cargo/graceful/giraffe line 400 times a day (I think that's about the pace I'm on, isn't fellas?!).
Weak. ChrisK was able to work conundrum into every post for quite awhile. I'm sure you could come up with giraffe no problem.

If you think I can work that word into every post for 4 months, you must be high... as a giraffe's arse.

ChrisK · Post by **ChrisK** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 5:26 pm

Govs93 wrote:
ChrisK wrote:
Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

If Gardy at some point decides that Tolbert is the best option there, I could be proven wrong, but even then I think I've got a shot.
I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.
Uff-da! All season long? That might be tough. How's about each other's signatures up for grabs? If I win, I get to write/create your signature and you hang on to it for a month. If you win, you create/write mine for a month. Put the word giraffe in that if you'd like.

At least that way I don't have to come up with a unique Cargo/graceful/giraffe line 400 times a day (I think that's about the pace I'm on, isn't fellas?!).

Hmm, good point. It looks like you have about 4X as many posts as I do, so maybe you'd have to do it for one month and I'd have to do it for the whole season?

The signature idea is good too. It would be darn tempting to make yours something like "Johnson has the worst hockey program in the history of Minnesota" and watch you have to explain why that's your signature to all the newbies on the board.

Another option would be to combine these, I'd have to add the word "giraffe" to all my posts through the hockey season if I lose and you'd have to use whatever I come up with a signature for the duration of the hockey season if you lose.

Can't Never Tried · Post by **Can't Never Tried** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 6:32 pm

I think it's great

I think Govs would take a hit to his post rate if he had to have the deal about Johnson on there.

It would have to be weighted (no offense Chris)

because Govs makes a lot more posts thus sufferering greater humiliation.

Neutron 14 · Post by **Neutron 14** » Mon Apr 07, 2008 8:29 pm

Can't Never Tried wrote:I think it's great
I think Govs would take a hit to his post rate if he had to have the deal about Johnson on there.

It would have to be weighted (no offense Chris) because Govs makes a lot more posts thus sufferering greater humiliation.

I would think it to be very difficult to humiliate Govs, for so very many reasons.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Mon Apr 14, 2008 9:10 am

Livan piched great to go 3-0. Johan was shelled by the Brewers and booed by the Met fans. Enjoy New York Johan.

I am officially placing the "Adios Johan" factor at +1.

Thats right boys, so far we are better off with out him.

And he shall be Livan, and he shall be a good man.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 2:01 pm

The Twins won Livan's last start so the Adios Santana factor will be at least +1 and could go to +2 if Johan gets shelled tonight in Phillie.

Irishmans Shanty · Post by **Irishmans Shanty** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 2:13 pm

pb, has HAL spit out any numbers on the Jason Bartlett factor yet?

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Sat Apr 19, 2008 3:23 pm

Irishmans Shanty wrote:pb, has HAL spit out any numbers on the Jason Bartlett factor yet?

Its too complicatedf for even HAL. When you lose a Bartlett, its impossible to compute.

packerboy · Post by **packerboy** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:03 am

Johan pitched a gem so the Adios Santana factor remains at +1.

I miss watching him pitch and Id rather watch Johan than Livan for the same $47.

But I think that they wont miss him as much as a lot of people thought.

They have other issues which will be thoruoghly discussed in other threads.

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Mon Apr 21, 2008 2:04 pm

ChrisK wrote:
Govs93 wrote: I'll tell you this though... That boy can hit the boofin' ball. He sent Francouer back to the wall yesterday to pull in a deep fly. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Johan Santana will have more homeruns this year than the Twins' starting shortstops... honestly. I'm setting the line at 2 1/2.

If Gardy at some point decides that Tolbert is the best option there, I could be proven wrong, but even then I think I've got a shot.
I'll take you up on this Govs, if only for the entertainment value. The fairest way to do it even up might be to do it by the ratio of homers to at bats, since the Twins shortstops will get many more at bats than Santana.

The loser will have to put the word "giraffe" (or another agreed upon word) in all their posts during the 2008/09 high school hockey season.

"THE BET" UPDATE: (through 3 weeks)

Johan Santana: 0 HR's
Twins' Shortstops (and LF, CF, C, & 3B): 0 HR's

Being that my pitcher is matching the power output of 5 of the Twins' position starters, I'm going to go ahead and call myself the leader at this point.

Govs93 · Post by **Govs93** » Tue Apr 22, 2008 2:40 pm

Here is an interesting little blog entry with updates of the players either in, or considered for the Santana trade - the worthwhile part is lower half where the numbers actually are.

As he says, it's early, but it'll be interesting to keep an eye on.