Class AA Hockey Rankings

Older Topics, Not the current discussion

Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)

Which of the 16-20 teams is ready to step into the Top 15

Elk River
7
44%
Duluth East
6
38%
Lakeville North
2
13%
Eastview
0
No votes
Roseau
1
6%
 
Total votes: 16

scorekeeper
Posts: 569
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:08 am

Class AA Hockey Rankings

Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:29 pm

The much anticipated initial Rankings are out.

Boys HS Class AA
1. Edina
2. Hill Murray
3. Benilde St Margarets
4. Minnetonka
5. Eagan
6. Burnsville
7. Blaine
8. Prior Lake
9. Bloomington Jefferson
10. Grand Rapids
11. Wayzata
12. Lakeville South
13. Centennial
14. Holy Family Catholic
15. Mounds View
16. Elk River
17. Duluth East
18. Lakeville North
19. Eastview
20. Roseau

Pretty spot-on. Good job MNHockeyRankings.com

http://mnhockeyrankings.com

Granttenn
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Rankings

Post by Granttenn » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:37 pm

They're off their rocker if they have Eagan and Burnsville that high and ahead of Blaine??. And Bloomington Jefferson ahead of Wayzata and others. Wow..

SuperStar
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Post by SuperStar » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:44 pm

I agree! EP not even in the TOP 20? come on now.

Here is Lets Play Hockey ranking for Today


1. Edina
2 Minnetonka
3 Hill-Murray
4 Wayzata
5 Blaine
6 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7 Eagan
8 Centennial
9 Duluth East
10 Elk River/Zimmerman
11 Burnsville
12 Grand Rapids
13 Bloomington Jefferson
14 Moorhead
15 Andover
16 Eden Prairie
17 Holy Family Catholic
18 Roseau
19 Mounds View
20 Lakeville North
Prior Lake

tonkafan77
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Post by tonkafan77 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:47 pm

Minnetonka (undefeated) beats St. Thomas. St. Thomas beats Hill Murray. How is HM ahead of Tonka?

Also, why is Blaine not farther up after beating "#3" Benilde? The only blemish on their record is a tie to Roseau in the first game of the year.

Edina is about the only team that's in the right spot here.

scorekeeper
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Re: Rankings

Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:49 pm

Granttenn wrote:They're off their rocker if they have Eagan and Burnsville that high and ahead of Blaine??. And Bloomington Jefferson ahead of Wayzata and others. Wow..
"that high", as in just - by the smallest possible margin? Blaine at 7th and Eagan?burnsville at 5th/6th?

That's actually spot-on. I know in the only scrimmage between Blaine and Eagan, the Wildcats outplayed the bengals. The score ended up 2-2 on two Blaine PP goals. Two evenly matched teams, but yes, the Wildcats are a smidge better IMO
Last edited by scorekeeper on Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.

scorekeeper
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Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:54 pm

tonkafan77 wrote:Minnetonka (undefeated) beats St. Thomas. St. Thomas beats Hill Murray. How is HM ahead of Tonka?

Also, why is Blaine not farther up after beating "#3" Benilde? The only blemish on their record is a tie to Roseau in the first game of the year.

Edina is about the only team that's in the right spot here.
It actually makes perfect sense. The short answer is that Tonka needed a bigger win over Maple Grove. Each game figures in (as it should) and each game is awarded a score MOV over SOS. If Maple Grove gets better over the season then the score for this game will increase. But for now it is what it is.

Here are the breakdown of scoring for each team and exactly how they arrive at each teams rating

Hill Murray
http://myhockeyrankings.com/team_math.php?y=2012&t=7406

Minnetonka
http://myhockeyrankings.com/team_math.php?y=2012&t=7409

scorekeeper
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Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 3:54 pm

SuperStar wrote:I agree! EP not even in the TOP 20? come on now.

Here is Lets Play Hockey ranking for Today


1. Edina
2 Minnetonka
3 Hill-Murray
4 Wayzata
5 Blaine
6 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7 Eagan
8 Centennial
9 Duluth East
10 Elk River/Zimmerman
11 Burnsville
12 Grand Rapids
13 Bloomington Jefferson
14 Moorhead
15 Andover
16 Eden Prairie
17 Holy Family Catholic
18 Roseau
19 Mounds View
20 Lakeville North
Prior Lake
Now THAT'S out to lunch :lol:

WHO has Wayzata beat to be worthy of a Top 4 seed? If it's just wins, why not just throw Tartan in the mix?

WHO has East beat to be worthy of a Top 10 ranking?

hockey4ever
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Post by hockey4ever » Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:24 pm

Not having EP in the top 20 is laughable. Sure the team hasn't played to their potential yet, but in reality the only bad loss was to LN. One loss was to Burnsville who is ranked 6. The loss to Andover has more to do with the play of Chase Perry. EP had 40+ shots in that game. Unfortunately it was against arguably the best goalie in the state. They beat Anoka who has played several teams pretty tough and albeit ugly, they beat AHA. I am pretty confident this team will shortly prove they belong in the top 10.

scorekeeper
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Re: Rankings

Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:27 pm

Granttenn wrote:Bloomington Jefferson ahead of Wayzata and others. Wow..
This should be no surprise at all. Wayzata has a very good hockey team and will likely only better each time out, but to say they are a top 5 team based on their results is just not credible. They lack even a single substantive victory. They are not the only 1 loss team in Minnesota Hockey, but they are the only 1 loss team getting over-valued for relatively mediocre results.

For example ;

Wayzata 3, Rosemount 2

Wayzata struggles to beat Rosemount by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Burnsville beats Rosemount by 3
    Eagan beats Rosemount by 8 goal shutout
    Prior Lake beats Rosemount by 8 goal shutout
    Lakeville South beats Rosemount by 3
Wayzata's narrow win over Rosemount is the LEAST impressive win by any team over Rosemount this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Rosemount but not ahead of Prior Lake, Lakeville South, Eagan or Burnsville.

Wayzata 2, Andover 1

Wayzata struggles to beat Andover by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Elk River beats Andover by 3
    Centennial beats Andover by 1
Wayzata's narrow win over Andover is tied for the LEAST impressive win by any team over Andover this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Andover, tied with Centennial and behind Elk River

Wayzata 2, Elk River 1

Wayzata struggles to beat Elk River by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Elk River goes to OT with Anoka
Wayzata's narrow win over Elk River is Elk Rivers only loss this season, suggesting Wayzata is just ahead of Elk River and Anoka

Wayzata 3, Eastview 1

Wayzata beats Eastview by 2 goals

comapred with
  • Burnsville beat Eastview by 6 goal shutout
    Apple Valley beat Eastview by 1
Wayzata's narrow win over Eastview is the second LEAST impressive win by any team over Eastview this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Apple Valley & Eastview, but not ahead of Burnsville

Wayzata 1, Duluth East 0

Wayzata struggles to beat Duluth East by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Centennial beat Duluth East by 3
Wayzata's narrow win over Duluth East is the LEAST impressive win by any team over East this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Duluth East but not ahead of Centennial

None of these narrow wins by itself defines Wayzata, nor should it, but they ought to be evaluated by their body of work like everyone else. The MyHockeyRanking site does exactly that, evaluating each game individually and then consolodating them as a group to arrive at an AVERAGE rating.

Wayzata's scorecard is here;
http://myhockeyrankings.com/team_math.php?y=2012&t=7438

It's an absolutely accurate rating for their body of work this season. It doesn't mean they can't improve or receed - they can - but for what they have done this season, there impressive Rating as #11 out of 70 Class AA teams is well earned and spot-on.

scorekeeper
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Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:33 pm

hockey4ever wrote:Not having EP in the top 20 is laughable. Sure the team hasn't played to their potential yet, but in reality the only bad loss was to LN. One loss was to Burnsville who is ranked 6. The loss to Andover has more to do with the play of Chase Perry. EP had 40+ shots in that game. Unfortunately it was against arguably the best goalie in the state. They beat Anoka who has played several teams pretty tough and albeit ugly, they beat AHA. I am pretty confident this team will shortly prove they belong in the top 10.
What's laughable is everyone trying to justify their own narrative, which is why opinion polls are total bunk. Everyone is quick to make excuses for their own teams losses, yet quick to define other teams by poor results.

The beauty of the MyHockeyRankings method is that the players and coaches are in charge and they are ultimately quantified by what they do on the ice, immune from so-called "experts" wishing to create their own narratives or serve their own agendas.

EP had every chance in the games they played to play well. They did what they did and ought to be evaluated on their results, not on what their fans believe their potential to be.

The Eden Prairie scorecard is here and it's done by their own hand;
http://myhockeyrankings.com/team_math.php?y=2012&t=7422

Nothing to say they can't rise in the ranks. They can. But in the meantime, they ought to be evaluated by their own handiwork, not the dellusions of so called "experts"

alcloseshaver
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Re: Class AA Hockey Rankings

Post by alcloseshaver » Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:54 pm

scorekeeper wrote:The much anticipated initial Rankings are out.

Boys HS Class AA
1. Edina
2. Hill Murray
3. Benilde St Margarets
4. Minnetonka
5. Eagan
6. Burnsville
7. Blaine
8. Prior Lake
9. Bloomington Jefferson
10. Grand Rapids
11. Wayzata
12. Lakeville South
13. Centennial
14. Holy Family Catholic
15. Mounds View
16. Elk River
17. Duluth East
18. Lakeville North
19. Eastview
20. Roseau

Pretty spot-on. Good job MNHockeyRankings.com

http://mnhockeyrankings.com
These rankings look out of whack, the LPH rankings look more accurate. All these various rankings are fun fodder for the fans but in reality mean nothing. The on ice results from week to week are going to change with injuries, illness, major penalties ect. I'm sure the coaches aren't spending alot of time on these matters, Just win games within your section for seeding and be ready to win at the end of the season. It way to early to pick the best teams.

karl(east)
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Contact:

Post by karl(east) » Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:30 pm

For the most part, I think arguing about this is silly--the computer is 100% right by the metric it uses, and its value as a predictor has been proven.

But, just to play devil's advocate, I will ask: if Eden Prairie and Mounds View were to play tomorrow, would you really put your money on Mounds View?

My complaint with myhockeyrankings is that the scores aren't always entered at the fastest rate, so the rankings struggle to reflect any one point in time; some of Tuesday's games are in there, while some aren't. For example, #12 Lakeville South lost to #42 Bloomington Kennedy by 3 goals last night, but that isn't in there. I guess this is part of the reason why I prefer rankings that come out at the start of the week.

It would be interesting to see how myhockeyrankings compares to the other two notable computerized rankings, which are based on the same principle but use different goal differentials (and, in one of them, a mild start-of-season adjustment):

http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm

OnFrozenPond
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Post by OnFrozenPond » Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:44 pm

karl(east) wrote:For the most part, I think arguing about this is silly--the computer is 100% right by the metric it uses, and its value as a predictor has been proven.

But, just to play devil's advocate, I will ask: if Eden Prairie and Mounds View were to play tomorrow, would you really put your money on Mounds View?

My complaint with myhockeyrankings is that the scores aren't always entered at the fastest rate, so the rankings struggle to reflect any one point in time; some of Tuesday's games are in there, while some aren't. For example, #12 Lakeville South lost to #42 Bloomington Kennedy by 3 goals last night, but that isn't in there. I guess this is part of the reason why I prefer rankings that come out at the start of the week.

It would be interesting to see how myhockeyrankings compares to the other two notable computerized rankings, which are based on the same principle but use different goal differentials (and, in one of them, a mild start-of-season adjustment):

http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm
It also seems to reward high scoring teams where the margin of victory has the potential to be larger over a team like Wayzata that tends to grind out low scoring, one goal wins with tough team D and solid Goaltending.

scorekeeper
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Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 5:55 pm

karl(east) wrote:For the most part, I think arguing about this is silly--the computer is 100% right by the metric it uses, and its value as a predictor has been proven.

But, just to play devil's advocate, I will ask: if Eden Prairie and Mounds View were to play tomorrow, would you really put your money on Mounds View?

My complaint with myhockeyrankings is that the scores aren't always entered at the fastest rate, so the rankings struggle to reflect any one point in time; some of Tuesday's games are in there, while some aren't. For example, #12 Lakeville South lost to #42 Bloomington Kennedy by 3 goals last night, but that isn't in there. I guess this is part of the reason why I prefer rankings that come out at the start of the week.

It would be interesting to see how myhockeyrankings compares to the other two notable computerized rankings, which are based on the same principle but use different goal differentials (and, in one of them, a mild start-of-season adjustment):

http://minnhock.com/pagestat.htm
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm
Both of the ones you list are MUCH more accutrate than the ones posted by LPH on MNHockeyHub. This one in particular looks like it has some real value
http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm
(Howver, MyHockeyRankings.com is MUCH more up-to-date than either of these rankings)

All 3 of the polls have Wayzata and Blaine pegged correctly. The pagestat poll obviously has a Duluth East bias, but the other two have the Hounds evaluated correctly. The LPH poll is by far the least accurate and all 3 of these polls confirm that.

A missing Lakeville North/Kennedy score isn't going to throw out the whole matrix, and it will get in there in short order. I believe they post on Wednesdays and if a game or two is missed it's included the following week.

The problem with LPH type rankings is it gives credibility to teams who just haven't earned it and with no accountability. How does Wayzata get a Top 4 ranking when it's results are on par with teams in the 11-20 range. How is Duluth East even in the conversation void of any significant win or loss? With opinion polls there is no accountability or logic neccessary.

Mathematical rankings reflect what the players do, making outside judgements unneccessary.

And yes, if Mounds View and Eden Prairie were to play tommorrow and betting was legal, I put down a sizeable chunk on Mounds View and have a slightly better than even chance of winning that wager.

I've also noticed some real hypocrisy in how they "tweak" their rankings. For example, Wayzata beats Duluth East so wayzata moves up, but Eagan beats Burnsville so Burnsiville moves down. Or more recently, Centennial beats Duluth East, so bring Centennial into the Top 10 with Duluth East yert Burnsville's loss to Eagan gets them moved out of the Top 10 entirely.

It seems there is a willingness to move the goal posts to suit a handful of favored schools in such a transparent fashion that it eats away at the polls credibility.

scorekeeper
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Re: Class AA Hockey Rankings

Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:20 pm

alcloseshaver wrote: I'm sure the coaches aren't spending alot of time on these matters, Just win games within your section for seeding and be ready to win at the end of the season. It way to early to pick the best teams.
Some coaches do spend a lot of time worrying this exact thing. At least to the extent that they thought it neccessary to have coaches vote on such things.

To that extent, my grandfather always told me, if something is to be done, it may as well be done right.

Metrohockeyfan
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Post by Metrohockeyfan » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:25 pm

Quite a few things I disagree with in these rankings. However, I still enjoy seeing other people's perspectives on rankings.

east hockey
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Post by east hockey » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:27 pm

scorekeeper wrote: All 3 of the polls have Wayzata and Blaine pegged correctly. The pagestat poll obviously has a Duluth East bias, [/b]but the other two have the Hounds evaluated correctly. The LPH poll is by far the least accurate and all 3 of these polls confirm that.
A few points:

1. PageStat isn't a poll. It's a computerized rating system, much like Mitch Hawkers and others which have sprang up recently.

2. Based on #1, I'm interested in how you think a mathematical system can be spun so as to favor a team or teams.

3. You might want to read the explanation of how PageStat works (linked on the ratings page) before you start making assertions about something you really know little if anything about. It works similar to Mitch Hawker's system, but is probably more similar to Tom Hawley's system. For those who aren't familiar with Tom's work, his computerized ratings was being published in the Star-Tribune long before other systems were developed. Tom is considered to be the Godfather or ratings high school teams in Minnesota.

When these new systems have a proven track record, over more than a decade, of correctly picking more section tournament game winners than the coaches who seed them, then I'll be impressed. Until then, I'm not.

Lee
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scorekeeper
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Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:31 pm

OnFrozenPond wrote: It also seems to reward high scoring teams where the margin of victory has the potential to be larger over a team like Wayzata that tends to grind out low scoring, one goal wins with tough team D and solid Goaltending.
Nobody is "trying" to grind out a one-goal win. They are trying to put the puck in the net and just, for whatever reason, aren't able.

Having the defense to win those one goal games is admirable and worthy of the 11th ranking they have earned. Other teams are doing exactly the same thing. Elk River is grinding out low scoring wins. So is Hopkins. Doesn't make them a Top 4 team.

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Re: Class AA Hockey Rankings

Post by alcloseshaver » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:34 pm

scorekeeper wrote:
alcloseshaver wrote: I'm sure the coaches aren't spending alot of time on these matters, Just win games within your section for seeding and be ready to win at the end of the season. It way to early to pick the best teams.
Some coaches do spend a lot of time worrying this exact thing. At least to the extent that they thought it neccessary to have coaches vote on such things.

To that extent, my grandfather always told me, if something is to be done, it may as well be done right.[/quote

The MSHSL reccomended QRF formula is used by most sections in other sports and they don't start their calculation until there is significant data to give an accurate rating. It should be more accurate in hockey because all AA schools seem to travel to play each other. What good is regular season rating for coaches?

scorekeeper
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Post by scorekeeper » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:42 pm

east hockey wrote: 2. Based on #1, I'm interested in how you think a mathematical system can be spun so as to favor a team or teams.
Was basing it on Karls statement

"(and, in one of them, a mild start-of-season adjustment)"


Seems obvious this is the one.

east hockey
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Post by east hockey » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:46 pm

scorekeeper wrote:
east hockey wrote: 2. Based on #1, I'm interested in how you think a mathematical system can be spun so as to favor a team or teams.
Was basing it on Karls statement

"(and, in one of them, a mild start-of-season adjustment)"


Seems obvious this is the one.
The idea of carrying forward a progressively declining portion of last season's rating is what he is referring to. It's an attempt to make very early results not give us an out-of-whack rating based on one or two very good or very early bad results. Tom Hawley did exactly this in his system, and was deemed appropriate. It's sort of a "So what? You might be 2-0 but play some more games and we'll see where you are are" thing.

Lee
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Metrohockeyfan
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Post by Metrohockeyfan » Wed Dec 19, 2012 6:47 pm

The ranking that really sticks out to me is Prior Lake at 8. Yes they are a good team, but with no impressive wins and an ugly loss to Lakeville South, a team that just lost to Kennedy, I don't see them as a top 10 team at this time.

starmvp
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Post by starmvp » Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:09 pm

Metrohockeyfan wrote:The ranking that really sticks out to me is Prior Lake at 8. Yes they are a good team, but with no impressive wins and an ugly loss to Lakeville South, a team that just lost to Kennedy, I don't see them as a top 10 team at this time.
Totally agree....

green4
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Re: Rankings

Post by green4 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:09 pm

scorekeeper wrote:
Granttenn wrote:Bloomington Jefferson ahead of Wayzata and others. Wow..
This should be no surprise at all. Wayzata has a very good hockey team and will likely only better each time out, but to say they are a top 5 team based on their results is just not credible. They lack even a single substantive victory. They are not the only 1 loss team in Minnesota Hockey, but they are the only 1 loss team getting over-valued for relatively mediocre results.

For example ;

Wayzata 3, Rosemount 2

Wayzata struggles to beat Rosemount by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Burnsville beats Rosemount by 3
    Eagan beats Rosemount by 8 goal shutout
    Prior Lake beats Rosemount by 8 goal shutout
    Lakeville South beats Rosemount by 3
Wayzata's narrow win over Rosemount is the LEAST impressive win by any team over Rosemount this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Rosemount but not ahead of Prior Lake, Lakeville South, Eagan or Burnsville.

Wayzata 2, Andover 1

Wayzata struggles to beat Andover by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Elk River beats Andover by 3
    Centennial beats Andover by 1
Wayzata's narrow win over Andover is tied for the LEAST impressive win by any team over Andover this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Andover, tied with Centennial and behind Elk River

Wayzata 2, Elk River 1

Wayzata struggles to beat Elk River by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Elk River goes to OT with Anoka
Wayzata's narrow win over Elk River is Elk Rivers only loss this season, suggesting Wayzata is just ahead of Elk River and Anoka

Wayzata 3, Eastview 1

Wayzata beats Eastview by 2 goals

comapred with
  • Burnsville beat Eastview by 6 goal shutout
    Apple Valley beat Eastview by 1
Wayzata's narrow win over Eastview is the second LEAST impressive win by any team over Eastview this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Apple Valley & Eastview, but not ahead of Burnsville

Wayzata 1, Duluth East 0

Wayzata struggles to beat Duluth East by 1 goal

comapred with
  • Centennial beat Duluth East by 3
Wayzata's narrow win over Duluth East is the LEAST impressive win by any team over East this season, suggesting they are just ahead of Duluth East but not ahead of Centennial

None of these narrow wins by itself defines Wayzata, nor should it, but they ought to be evaluated by their body of work like everyone else. The MyHockeyRanking site does exactly that, evaluating each game individually and then consolodating them as a group to arrive at an AVERAGE rating.

Wayzata's scorecard is here;
http://myhockeyrankings.com/team_math.php?y=2012&t=7438

It's an absolutely accurate rating for their body of work this season. It doesn't mean they can't improve or receed - they can - but for what they have done this season, there impressive Rating as #11 out of 70 Class AA teams is well earned and spot-on.
Thats how the wayzata team plays.... they are defensive minded and why woudn't you with a top 3 goaltender..
there not gonna blow you away offensively but ever hear the term a win is a win? they are beating teams that are pretty good, ER, Andover, DE all solid teams... there only loss is to edina where they gave up 3 goals to the hornets who average 5, so until they lose again why woudn't they be ranked where everyone else has them?? a top 10 team at least, having them only one spot ahead of lakeville south has to be the craziest thing i have ever heard... LS just lost to kennedy.... KENNEDY... just because Wayzata does not run the score up dosen't mean they deserve to be ranked lower. it shows they are skilled defensively. But i guess thats why Bsm is 3rd... cause they can score goals by the dozens but don't play much D so that makes them worthy of that spot over the likes of Tonka and Blaine

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Post by alcloseshaver » Wed Dec 19, 2012 7:11 pm

Elk River beat Holy Family and is ranked behind them? Is 2 close game wins against teams with poor records {Osseo, Anoka} a major factor?
If ER can get 2 wins at the Edina tourney it would make them a legit top ten. They throttled Burnsville in a scrimmage and outplayed Wayzata in a loss but now seem to have scoring issues? Box score show lots of shots on goal.

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