2013-14 KRACH RANKINGS - NOW ON MGHCA WEBSITE
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
I think hopkins has lost 3. Wayzata, EP last Saturday, the Hornet on Tuesday.
I don't know how one would do it (a win is a win) BUT an overtime win or loss maybe should have a different weighting in truly trying to rank teams.
Ifmemory serves me right a couple of the top ranked teams have had some games against what some might think is inferior competition go to OT and then squeaked out wins. It seems it should be worth more for a lower ranked team and a lil less for a higher ranked team.
Thoughts?!?
I don't know how one would do it (a win is a win) BUT an overtime win or loss maybe should have a different weighting in truly trying to rank teams.
Ifmemory serves me right a couple of the top ranked teams have had some games against what some might think is inferior competition go to OT and then squeaked out wins. It seems it should be worth more for a lower ranked team and a lil less for a higher ranked team.
Thoughts?!?
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ghshockeyfan can correct me if I'm wrong, but the KRACH model treats OT wins the same as a win in regulation time. And the margin of a team's win (or loss) -whether it be by one goal or ten - makes no difference either. So a team's KRACH ranking boils down to pure wins and losses, with a proper emphasis on the relative strength of the teams that you're beating, or losing to.massalsa wrote:If memory serves me right a couple of the top ranked teams have had some games against what some might think is inferior competition go to OT and then squeaked out wins. It seems it should be worth more for a lower ranked team and a lil less for a higher ranked team.
Thoughts?!?
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This is correct.MNHockeyFan wrote: ghshockeyfan can correct me if I'm wrong, but the KRACH model treats OT wins the same as a win in regulation time. And the margin of a team's win (or loss) -whether it be by one goal or ten - makes no difference either. So a team's KRACH ranking boils down to pure wins and losses, with a proper emphasis on the relative strength of the teams that you're beating, or losing to.
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Re: Updated 1/22 10PM 17896
Not really. Due to the nature of conference play I would expect conference teams to be bunched in SOS. Whenever you have a group of teams that play each other multiple times it is going to create a foci in statistics like SOS. Edina's conference SOS is going to be exactly the same as Wayzata's, and it is going to be the most significant part of their overall SOS.MNHockeyFan wrote:Interesting that the Top 5 are all of the Lake Conference teams, interrupted by No. 6 BSM, and then followed by four of the South Suburban Conference teams at Nos. 7-10.ghshockeyfan wrote: SOS (Strength-Of-Schedule) is at:
http://www.bgoski.com/KRACH_SOS.htm
Benilde is an outlier because they are an honorary Lake team being in the same area and playing Wayzata, Edina and Eden Prairie (twice). Minnetonka could have been on Benilde's schedule too if the Meltdown tournament had gone differently.
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Re: Updated 1/22 10PM 17896
Good points but bear in mind that when the latest KRACH SOS numbers were calculated Lake Conference games made up less than a third of the teams' combined schedule. I was curious so I went back and looked. So far the Lake teams have played 108 total games, and of those 34 (31%) have been games against conference foes and 74 (69%) have been non-conference - more than twice as many. So for the five teams to be ranked Nos. 1 to No. 5 consecutively in terms of SOS it has to mean that their non-conference schedules are about equally difficult - credit goes to all of them for not padding their won/loss records by scheduling very many soft non-conference opponents.luckyEPDad wrote:Not really. Due to the nature of conference play I would expect conference teams to be bunched in SOS. Whenever you have a group of teams that play each other multiple times it is going to create a foci in statistics like SOS. Edina's conference SOS is going to be exactly the same as Wayzata's, and it is going to be the most significant part of their overall SOS.
Again at the time the KRACH numbers were run BSM had played only 3 of their 21 games against Lake teams, so to be ranked 6th overall in SOS their non-Lake schedule has to have been pretty difficult as well. With 6 times as many non-Lake games as Lake games their No. 6 SOS ranking can't be because they are an "an honorary Lake team". I think your point of them being more of an "outlier" is more accurate.luckyEPDad wrote:Benilde is an outlier because they are an honorary Lake team being in the same area and playing Wayzata, Edina and Eden Prairie (twice). Minnetonka could have been on Benilde's schedule too if the Meltdown tournament had gone differently.
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Updated 1/26 2AM 19285
Updated 1/26 2AM 19285
Last edited by ghshockeyfan on Thu Jan 30, 2014 7:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Updated 1/30 12AM 20129
Updated 1/30 12AM 20129
Last edited by ghshockeyfan on Fri Jan 31, 2014 6:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Updated 1/31 2AM 20514
Updated 1/31 2AM 20514
Last edited by ghshockeyfan on Sun Feb 02, 2014 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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In the LSQRANK data set, here are the game data that was encoded as of last WED, hope this helps to find the missing game.
Code: Select all
21 EastRidge 3 AA ERG 235.83 2.4 0.77 25.8 82.7 1.0 (15- 7-1) 0.674
21 EastRidge 3AA 2.4 0.77 25.8 82.7 (15-7-1)
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W: 77 FFR 4.1 +/- 0.73 1 2.9 0.2 0.25
W: 70 TAR 6.7 +/- 0.99 5 3.4 -0.2 0.64
W: 76 SHK 5.1 +/- 0.43 3 1.1 1.0 0.84
W: 58 PCG 3.6 +/- 0.66 1 2.6 0.0 0.39
W: 51 WBL 3.6 +/- 0.63 2 2.4 -0.8 0.47
W: 85 WBY 10.2 +/- 4.20 7 3.2 0.0 0.25
W: 103 SIM 6.4 +/- 0.81 3 3.0 0.4 0.28
W: 28 ROS 4.7 +/- 0.51 3 1.7 0.0 1.42
W: 84 MOO 4.6 +/- 0.68 3 2.6 0.0 0.26
W: 96 NM 4.3 +/- 0.84 1 3.3 0.0 -0.06
W: 58 PCG 4.7 +/- 0.86 2 3.3 -0.6 0.51
W: 28 ROS 2.0 +/- 0.33 1 1.2 -0.2 0.92
W: 54 FL 1.9 +/- 0.35 2 1.3 -0.4 0.01
W: 51 WBL 3.6 +/- 0.48 2 1.8 -0.2 0.61
W: 19 MSV 1.4 +/- 0.11 2 0.2 0.2 2.84
T: 85 WBY 2.4 +/- 0.60 0 2.4 0.0 -0.36
L: 40 CHP 1.3 +/- 0.58 -1 -2.3 0.0 -0.15
L: 14 STW -2.1 +/- 0.20 -3 0.1 0.0 1.16
L: 54 FL 0.3 +/- 0.48 -1 -1.9 0.6 0.57
L: 19 MSV -3.7 +/- 0.33 -3 0.5 0.2 1.82
L: 25 CDH -1.7 +/- 0.21 -1 0.7 0.0 1.55
L: 46 HAS -3.4 +/- 0.34 -3 0.6 -0.2 2.38
L: 14 STW -1.3 +/- 0.13 -2 0.3 0.0 0.87
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Updated 2/2 12AM 21268
Updated 2/2 12AM 21268
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St Louis Park in Class A not AA
Still have to fix this and will do so before end of season.
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Updated 2/5 12AM 22079
Updated 2/5 12AM 22079
Last edited by ghshockeyfan on Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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yep, no guarantees but I'm gunning for tomorrow, boys hs regular season wrapping up and we've had lots of rescheduled games, plus a trip to play Duluth east yesterday... and that's been keeping me from a rerun in addition to moving in the last couple weeks (need to get my office set up), sorry for the lack of updates recently.allhoc11 wrote:GHS - any chance of getting an updated Krach after sections?
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Below is the updated LSQRANKings that include all games actually played this regular season and section play-offs. The ST HHUB data set contains incomplete data and/or in-accurate data in more than one ocassion. I resolved most of these data errors.
Code: Select all
LSQRANK Team SEC CLS GD RK SOS PPc PKc ( W- L-T)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 BSM 6 AA BSM 0.0 T1 0.83 42.2 75.5 (25- 2-1)
2 HillMurray 4 AA HM 0.0 T1 0.77 25.3 95.8 (23- 3-1)
3 EdenPrairie 2 AA EP 0.3 3 0.87 24.6 87.7 (20- 7-0)
4 Wayzata 6 AA WYZ 0.6 4 0.85 39.1 84.5 (19- 7-1)
5 Edina 2 AA EDN 0.8 5 0.87 27.1 84.9 (17- 8-3)
6 Minnetonka 6 AA MTK 1.0 6 0.89 27.5 81.8 (19- 6-2)
7 Hopkins 6 AA HOP 1.1 7 0.85 28.4 87.3 (21- 5-0)
8 LakevilleN 1 AA LVN 1.6 8 0.83 20.5 91.7 (21- 5-2)
9 Burnsville 3 AA BNV 1.7 T9 0.80 26.1 87.4 (19- 8-1)
10 DodgeCounty 1 AA DC 1.7 T9 0.73 26.3 88.9 (22- 6-0)
11 Achiever 4 A ACH 1.7 T9 0.74 27.6 88.0 (21- 5-1)
12 MapleGrove 6 AA MG 1.7 T9 0.81 23.0 83.9 (17- 6-2)
13 Stillwater 4 AA STW 1.9 T13 0.81 20.5 71.0 (18- 9-1)
14 LakevilleS 1 AA LVS 1.9 T13 0.83 30.4 85.3 (17- 9-1)
15 MoundsView 5 AA MSV 2.0 15 0.81 37.9 82.7 (17- 8-3)
16 Blaine 5 AA BLA 2.1 T16 0.78 25.3 88.0 (22- 4-2)
17 Irondale 5 AA IRO 2.1 T16 0.77 37.5 70.3 (20- 7-0)
18 EastGrandForks 8 A EGF 2.2 18 0.68 28.0 91.4 (24- 2-1)
19 ThiefRiverFalls 8 A TRF 2.3 T19 0.69 23.3 94.2 (24- 2-0)
20 ArmstrongCooper 6 AA ARM 2.3 T19 0.79 27.3 82.9 (14-10-2)
21 CDH 4 AA CDH 2.5 T21 0.80 41.7 60.5 (18- 9-0)
22 Blake 5 A BLK 2.5 T21 0.77 24.5 74.1 (20- 7-1)
23 EastRidge 3 AA ERG 2.7 T23 0.75 23.8 82.0 (16-10-1)
24 Roseville 4 AA ROS 2.7 T23 0.79 15.2 81.3 (18- 9-0)
25 Eastview 3 AA EVW 2.8 T25 0.80 19.5 71.4 (17-10-1)
26 Warroad 8 A WAR 2.8 T25 0.73 19.4 83.3 (16-10-1)
27 BloomJeff 2 AA BLJ 2.8 T25 0.81 31.7 79.2 (16- 9-1)
28 Eagan 3 AA EAG 2.8 T25 0.82 26.5 73.5 (11-14-1)
29 Andover 7 AA AND 2.9 29 0.78 32.4 85.4 (16- 9-3)
30 Hanover 1 NH HAN 3.0 T30 0.73 0.0 0.0 ( 2- 1-0)
31 ElkRiver 7 AA ER 3.0 T30 0.77 24.4 81.3 (14- 9-5)
32 RedWing 1 A RW 3.1 32 0.68 43.4 87.3 (22- 6-0)
33 Roseau 8 AA RSU 3.2 T33 0.75 9.1 80.9 (16-12-0)
34 RochesterJM 1 AA RJM 3.2 T33 0.61 33.8 93.2 (21- 5-0)
35 RochesterCENT 1 AA RCT 3.3 T35 0.61 36.5 71.7 (22- 4-0)
36 Centennial 5 AA CEN 3.3 T35 0.81 21.2 71.2 (13-12-2)
37 Orono 5 A ORO 3.3 T35 0.70 16.9 84.2 (16- 8-2)
38 ChamplinPark 5 AA CHP 3.3 T35 0.79 24.5 69.6 (10-16-0)
39 Chaska 2 AA CHK 3.4 39 0.77 14.3 83.2 (17- 9-1)
40 AppleValley 3 AA APV 3.6 T40 0.83 15.1 71.8 ( 7-18-1)
41 StCloud 8 AA STC 3.6 T40 0.64 22.9 82.7 (20- 5-1)
42 Buffalo 8 AA BUF 3.8 42 0.77 23.5 80.2 (14-13-1)
43 Hastings 3 AA HAS 4.0 43 0.78 19.2 77.5 (14-12-1)
44 Breck 5 A BRK 4.1 44 0.77 18.7 88.0 (12-15-1)
45 Anoka 5 AA ANK 4.2 45 0.81 26.6 80.0 ( 9-16-1)
46 GrandRapids 7 AA GR 4.3 46 0.72 16.9 83.6 (15-10-2)
47 Bemidji 8 AA BMJ 4.4 47 0.72 5.9 82.9 ( 8-11-5)
48 WhiteBearLake 4 AA WBL 4.5 T48 0.78 19.2 80.5 ( 9-14-3)
49 SSR 8 AA SSR 4.5 T48 0.64 22.4 91.9 (19- 5-3)
50 ForestLake 7 AA FL 4.6 T50 0.77 18.2 85.9 (10-15-2)
51 PriorLake 2 AA PRL 4.6 T50 0.79 12.8 79.2 ( 7-20-0)
52 SouthStPaul 4 A SSP 4.6 T50 0.72 12.2 86.8 (16- 9-2)
53 SPAVIS 4 A SPU 4.6 T50 0.67 14.5 81.9 (15- 9-2)
54 SpringLakePark 5 AA SLK 4.6 T50 0.66 34.8 63.3 (16- 8-2)
55 HolyFamily 2 AA HF 4.7 55 0.73 12.2 81.5 (13-12-1)
56 NorthWRCTY 8 AA NWC 4.9 T56 0.70 15.8 81.2 (13-10-3)
57 ParkCG 3 AA PCG 4.9 T56 0.78 16.4 81.3 ( 4-20-2)
58 Farmington 1 AA FAM 4.9 T56 0.70 15.1 77.9 (12-13-2)
59 Duluth 7 AA DUL 5.0 59 0.69 8.9 79.6 (11-14-1)
60 MoundWestonka 5 A MWT 5.1 60 0.66 12.3 79.3 (15- 9-3)
61 NewPrague 1 A NP 5.2 T61 0.66 14.2 81.5 (16-12-0)
62 CoonRapids 5 AA CR 5.2 T61 0.78 14.9 61.9 ( 5-18-3)
63 Owatonna 1 AA OWT 5.3 T63 0.60 23.5 93.0 (15-11-0)
64 ProctorHerm 7 A PRH 5.3 T63 0.64 19.0 83.3 (17-10-0)
65 Rogers 5 AA ROG 5.3 T63 0.68 20.6 79.8 (13-11-3)
66 Cloquet 7 AA CLQ 5.4 T66 0.72 17.1 81.7 ( 7-15-2)
67 Tartan 4 AA TAR 5.4 T66 0.71 23.1 74.0 (12-14-0)
68 Shakopee 2 AA SHK 5.5 T68 0.72 18.5 79.4 ( 8-14-4)
69 Mahtomedi 4 A MAH 5.5 T68 0.67 20.0 81.7 (12-15-1)
70 USMW 1 WI USM 5.6 T70 0.55 4.8 87.5 ( 6- 1-1)
71 Alexandria 6 A ALX 5.6 T70 0.63 15.1 90.4 (14-11-1)
72 TotinoGrace 5 A TG 5.6 T70 0.70 23.5 83.1 (12-11-2)
73 Bismark 1 ND BIS 5.6 T70 0.52 0.0 100.0 ( 9- 1-1)
74 NorthStPaul 4 AA NSP 5.8 T74 0.74 17.8 79.1 ( 9-16-1)
75 RiverLakes 8 AA RL 5.8 T74 0.62 13.1 76.9 (15-11-1)
76 Hibbing 7 A HIB 5.8 T74 0.64 23.3 90.1 (12-13-2)
77 CentralWIS 1 WI CWI 5.8 T74 0.62 16.1 90.0 ( 6- 3-1)
78 NewUlm 3 A NU 5.9 78 0.48 24.6 83.1 (18- 7-0)
79 FargoWest 1 ND FW 6.0 79 0.58 11.1 77.8 ( 8- 4-1)
80 Moorhead 8 AA MOR 6.1 80 0.70 23.0 77.3 ( 7-14-2)
81 Hayward 1 WI HAY 6.3 T81 0.59 23.0 85.0 (10- 6-0)
82 MooseLake 7 A MOO 6.3 T81 0.55 18.8 83.3 (16- 9-2)
83 FortFrances 1 ON FFR 6.3 T81 0.51 0.0 66.7 ( 8- 2-0)
84 Woodbury 3 AA WBY 6.5 T84 0.76 12.8 72.9 ( 7-19-1)
85 ChisagoLakes 4 A CHL 6.5 T84 0.66 22.5 81.2 (10-14-1)
86 StFrancis 7 AA STF 6.6 86 0.61 18.3 80.3 (10-12-4)
87 IFALLS 7 A IFS 6.7 T87 0.52 19.2 89.3 (15-10-2)
88 MplsNovas 5 A MPL 6.7 T87 0.59 14.8 74.4 (11-12-1)
89 FergusFalls 6 A FF 6.9 89 0.59 39.6 75.9 (10-16-2)
90 Onalaska 1 WI ONA 7.0 T90 0.64 25.6 78.6 ( 5- 6-0)
91 Princeton 5 A PRC 7.0 T90 0.57 13.9 79.4 (15-11-1)
92 StCroix 1 WI SCX 7.1 92 0.59 27.9 87.0 ( 9- 7-1)
93 NewRichmond 1 WI NEW 7.2 T93 0.59 25.0 80.0 ( 1- 5-0)
94 Hudson 1 WI HUD 7.2 T93 0.58 20.0 82.5 ( 7- 5-2)
95 Simley 4 A SIM 7.4 95 0.66 10.5 73.3 ( 7-20-0)
96 LDC 2 A LDC 7.5 T96 0.58 10.7 80.5 (10-17-0)
97 WSFLG 1 WI WSF 7.5 T96 0.54 22.6 71.4 ( 5- 7-1)
98 NorthMetro 6 AA NM 7.6 T98 0.79 5.9 72.8 ( 3-23-0)
99 MankatoEast 2 A MKE 7.6 T98 0.57 18.9 81.1 (16-11-0)
100 Northfield 1 A NF 7.6 T98 0.60 7.8 86.0 (10-17-0)
101 Rosemont 3 AA RSM 7.7 T101 0.79 10.4 64.9 ( 1-25-0)
102 Sibley 4 A SIB 7.7 T101 0.65 10.0 74.5 ( 4-23-0)
103 Cambridge 7 AA CAM 7.7 T101 0.65 4.1 73.5 ( 5-21-0)
104 DetroitLakes 6 A DL 7.9 T104 0.57 9.9 78.5 ( 8-12-4)
105 HolyAngels 5 A HA 7.9 T104 0.65 18.7 76.7 ( 7-16-4)
106 Crookston 8 A CRK 7.9 T104 0.64 12.7 87.3 ( 7-17-1)
107 StPaulBlades 4 A SPB 8.3 T107 0.60 25.0 66.7 ( 5-15-4)
108 ParkRapids 8 A PR 8.3 T107 0.52 12.2 83.3 (13-13-1)
109 SunPraire 1 WI SUN 8.5 109 0.59 11.1 87.5 ( 1- 7-1)
110 RochesterMayo 1 AA RMY 8.7 110 0.62 13.0 71.8 ( 9-16-0)
111 StLouisPark 5 A SLP 8.8 111 0.62 16.2 75.0 ( 3-21-1)
112 Dryden 1 ON DRY 9.0 112 0.63 16.7 80.0 ( 1- 4-0)
113 MankatoWest 2 A MKW 9.1 T113 0.53 19.7 81.0 ( 9-17-0)
114 Hutchinson 2 A HUT 9.1 T113 0.56 10.6 74.5 ( 6-18-1)
115 PequotLakes 6 A PLK 9.1 T113 0.51 15.2 79.0 (11-14-0)
116 Winona 1 A WNN 9.3 T116 0.60 18.1 70.3 ( 8-17-1)
117 Brainard 8 AA BRN 9.3 T116 0.63 6.3 74.0 ( 2-23-0)
118 Luverne 3 A LUV 9.3 T116 0.26 34.7 90.9 (22- 4-0)
119 FargoNorth 1 ND FN 9.4 T119 0.57 0.0 60.0 ( 2-11-0)
120 Faribault 1 A FBL 9.4 T119 0.54 11.5 86.0 ( 7-17-1)
121 GrandForks 1 ND GFK 9.5 T121 0.58 11.1 60.0 ( 4- 7-0)
122 FargoSouth 1 ND FS 9.5 T121 0.58 11.1 41.7 ( 2- 9-0)
123 AlbertLea 1 A ABL 9.6 123 0.58 13.2 72.7 ( 7-18-0)
124 Willmar 2 A WIL 9.8 124 0.57 12.3 74.6 ( 6-19-0)
125 Austin 1 A AUS 9.9 T125 0.55 5.3 79.0 ( 6-18-2)
126 Eveleth 7 A EVE 9.9 T125 0.57 11.3 86.4 ( 5-19-2)
127 Superior 1 WI SUP 10.3 127 0.58 15.2 65.6 ( 2-12-0)
128 Mandan 1 ND MAN 10.5 128 0.54 0.0 100.0 ( 0- 8-0)
129 SilverBay 7 A SLB 10.7 129 0.55 9.4 68.1 ( 2-20-1)
130 MHHAunited 4 A MHH 10.8 T130 0.58 2.9 75.5 ( 2-19-1)
131 LPGE 6 A LPG 10.8 T130 0.40 9.5 92.3 ( 8-16-1)
132 Marshall 3 A MAR 12.0 132 0.30 11.5 80.0 ( 9-13-1)
133 Waseca 1 A WAS 12.1 133 0.34 14.1 82.1 ( 7-10-2)
134 Fairmont 3 A FMT 12.2 T134 0.27 27.7 85.2 (10-11-1)
135 Brookings 1 SD BRO 12.2 T134 0.29 50.0 87.5 ( 1- 2-0)
136 StPeter 2 A STP 13.3 136 0.38 10.9 67.1 ( 6-18-1)
137 Morris 6 A MOR 14.3 137 0.32 20.0 86.7 ( 3-12-0)
138 Watertown 1 SD WAT 14.8 138 0.32 0.0 71.4 ( 0- 3-0)
139 LOW 8 A LOW 15.1 139 0.46 0.0 75.8 ( 0-17-0)
140 Windom 3 A WIN 17.3 140 0.23 2.3 73.2 ( 4-15-1)
141 Worthington 3 A WOR 20.0 141 0.26 3.7 61.1 ( 1-18-0)
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Updated 2/6 12AM 23399 (End of Regular Season)
Updated 2/6 12AM 23399 (End of Regular Season)
Last edited by ghshockeyfan on Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Never did yet get AA DQ or SLP sorted out - SLP is an issue as they are listed in wrong section, AA DQ is the AA scenario - which, for now, I left as 1-0 L for a 0-24 record and 1-0 W's. It has been pointed out that this will skew a few things - SOS for teams playing a now apparently weak AA, but not much gained for the teams that pulled W's out of this as they effectively beat a weak team in KRACH's eyes. I saw all the other discussion as to how this should be dealt with from a stats standpoint, etc. I'm not saying the way I did is - or even how I draw the line in not including non-MSHSL games in my version of KRACH - but it is what it is and it was the easiest way for now...