Adjusted Stats Leaders

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:58 am

Minnesota statewide individual overall stats leaders are listed at:

http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/page/sh ... son=132773

But, as we all know, racking up goals and assists is a lot tougher when going up against good-to-very good competition than relatively weak competition. With that thought in mind, I thought it would be interesting to see how the State's top scorers rank, taking into account the Strength of Schedule (SOS) KRACH opposition ranking that each of the scoring leaders has faced, as determined by ghshockeyfan's latest SOS rankings. So, in each of the below "Goals/Assists/Total Points" categories, I have eliminated scorers whose teams are not listed in KRACH's Top 30, in terms of the Strength of Schedule (SOS) that each of the players has faced:

Goals
1. Caitlin Reilly, 30 (BSM – #4 SOS)
2. Kelly Pannek, 25 (BSM – #4 SOS)
3. Nina Rodgers, 24 (Hopkins, #12 SOS)
4. Carly Bullock, 24 (Blake, #20 SOS)
5. Taylor Williamson, 22 (Edina, #3 SOS)
6. Lindsey Coleman, 22 (Burnsville, #18 SOS)
7. Corbin Boyd, 20 (Hopkins, #12 SOS)
8. Amy Schlagel, 19 (Blaine, #29 SOS)
9. Abby Halluska, 18 (Buffalo, #28 SOS)
10. Erica Power, 18 (Apple Valley, #5 SOS)
Paige Voight, 18 (Cretin-Derham Hall, #30 SOS)

Assists
1. Kelly Pannek, 36 (BSM – #4 SOS)
2. Corbin Boyd, 33 (Hopkins, #12 SOS)
3. Brittany Wheeler, 29 (BSM – #4 SOS)
4. Kaitlyn Klein, 25 (Wayzata - #11 SOS)
5. Caitlin Reilly, 24 (BSM – #4 SOS)
6. Karlie Lund, 24 (Blake - #20 SOS)
7. Nina Rodgers, 21 (Hopkins, #12 SOS)
8. Lindsay Roethke, 21 (Buffalo, #28 SOS)
9. Sophia Shaver, 19 (Wayzata - #11 SOS)
10. Britta Nelson, 19 (Burnsville, #18 SOS)
Bella Sutton, 19 (Mounds View, #15 SOS)

Total Points
1. Kelly Pannek, 61 (BSM – #4 SOS)
2. Caitlin Reilly, 54 (BSM – #4 SOS)
3. Corbin Boyd, 53 (Hopkins, #12 SOS)
4. Nina Rodgers, 45 (Hopkins, #12 SOS)
5. Kaitlyn Klein, 41 (Wayzata - #11 SOS)
6. Karlie Lund, 41 (Blake - #20 SOS)
7. Brittany Wheeler, 40 (BSM – #4 SOS)
8. Lindsey Coleman, 40 (Burnsville, #18 SOS)
9. Taylor Williamson, 37 (Edina, #3 SOS)
10. Carly Bullock, 36 (Blake, #20 SOS)

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:30 am

P.S. Several of the just-posted 2013/14 top scorers, including Nina Rodgers of Hopkins and Taylor Williamson of Edina, missed several high school Holiday Tournament games, when they were competing with the USA U18 team.

Nordic · Post by **Nordic** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:29 am

Yes missing Holiday games might be noted, but, keep in mind some other players might have missed games due to injury or sick. So, the numbers are what they are and no special notations should be noted.
Just saying...

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 4:17 pm

Interesting but I guess not surprising that your SOS approach knocks out 12 of the top 15 in total points. Nice to see BSM with a failry high SOS this year. Would have been nice to see a couple more Lake Conference teams though.

luckyEPDad · Post by **luckyEPDad** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:11 pm

Nimrod wrote:Interesting but I guess not surprising that your SOS approach knocks out 12 of the top 15 in total points. Nice to see BSM with a failry high SOS this year. Would have been nice to see a couple more Lake Conference teams though.

Have you looked at their schedule? They play every Lake conference team except Hopkins. They play Lakeville North, Mounds View, Hill Murray, Dodge County and Blake. Other than some required conference games they don't play any easy teams.

I'd trade EP's tough schedule for BSM's variety. After years of youth hockey you get tired of playing Edina, Wayzata and Minnetonka over and over and over...

36Guy · Post by **36Guy** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 6:39 pm

luckyEPDad wrote:
Nimrod wrote:Interesting but I guess not surprising that your SOS approach knocks out 12 of the top 15 in total points. Nice to see BSM with a failry high SOS this year. Would have been nice to see a couple more Lake Conference teams though.
Have you looked at their schedule? They play every Lake conference team except Hopkins. They play Lakeville North, Mounds View, Hill Murray, Dodge County and Blake. Other than some required conference games they don't play any easy teams.

I'd trade EP's tough schedule for BSM's variety. After years of youth hockey you get tired of playing Edina, Wayzata and Minnetonka over and over and over...

Correction...they don't play Tonka or Hopkins this year. For scoring, playing 8 tough games does not hold down scoring when you score a 100 goals in your other 17 games vs weak teams. For example BSM has 10 goals vs Top 10 AA Ranked team in 4 games for an avg. of 2.25 goals a game. In the other 15 games they have 87 goals for an average of 6 goals a game.

With that said, I will contradict myself and say BSM can definitely score! But a few cream puffs with 10 goal games sure can help a scorer rise of the Hockey Hub Stat chart fast.

Don't Poke The Bear · Post by **Don't Poke The Bear** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:26 pm

Pretty sure I read in the Star Tribune that BSM applied to join the Lake Conference, but they were turned down. Seems like it would have been a good fit and could have eliminated the "10 goal games," which honestly can't be fun for either team.

blondegirlsdad · Post by **blondegirlsdad** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:35 pm

...and Tonka wouldn't schedule BSM this year, for whatever reason.

This is just a list. I'm sure anyone can find something they don't like about it. Or not, depending on who's on it, I guess.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:40 pm

Don't Poke The Bear wrote:Pretty sure I read in the Star Tribune that BSM applied to join the Lake Conference, but they were turned down.

I don't think this is true. They would get absolutely hammered in football, where enrollment means so much. In fact, they were just average in the (weak) North Suburban last season. In boy's hockey they play a totally independent schedule, and the girl's team has been moving in that direction, playing just six conference games this season.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:43 pm

blondegirlsdad wrote:...and Tonka wouldn't schedule BSM this year, for whatever reason.

They would have met in EP's Holiday tourney, if Tonka hadn't lost to the host team in the semi.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 8:56 pm

blondegirlsdad wrote:This is just a list. I'm sure anyone can find something they don't like about it. Or not, depending on who's on it, I guess.

Exactly. I was just curious how the list of leaders would look taking the quality of the competition they face into account. Other than KRACH - which of course is computer-based and not partial to any team or conference - I couldn't come up with a fairer way to look at it. If anyone has a better idea by all means have at it!

D6 Girls Fan · Post by **D6 Girls Fan** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:26 pm

I think it's a very good list. It's only ten girls deep, and I would imagine that there are also some good players just behind. Hard to knock that first line of BSMs.

loki · Post by **loki** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:39 pm

D6 Girls Fan wrote:I think it's a very good list. It's only ten girls deep, and I would imagine that there are also some good players just behind. Hard to knock that first line of BSMs.

I'd like to see that first line's stats against the competition in the state tournament. Oh....wait....

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:59 pm

36Guy wrote:For example BSM has 10 goals vs Top 10 AA Ranked team in 4 games for an avg. of 2.25 goals a game.

Went back and looked and you're right about BSM's goal total (10) vs. (4) Top 10 AA ranked teams, but this equates to 2.5 goals per game. Not a big difference but when you look at Minnetonka - which according to KRACH has played the toughest schedule in the State - the 2.5 goal average looks pretty good. Tonka has played 8 games against current Top 10 AA teams, scoring 17 goals for a 2.125 average. This doesn't prove much other than it does show just how much harder it is to score goals against the State's best teams.

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:03 pm

Loki, well if BSM ever does get to State, they won't have to play Tonka, Wayzata, Hopkins and at least one of Edina/EP, so that knocks at least 4 of the state's top 10 teams out of the tournament and makes their job that much easier. Of course, it's likely that they won't face any creampuffs, but they won't be facing the entire cream of the crop, either.

Don't Poke The Bear · Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:37 pm

Here is link to Star Tribune article I was referring to. http://www.startribune.com/sports/225099362.html

In the article it states, "The Metro West Conference, which begins play in 2014-15, said Tuesday that it is appealing a decision by the Minnesota State High School League to assign Benilde-St. Margaret’s to the conference. The new conference, including seven schools displaced by various dissolving conferences, believes that the Red Knights best fit in the Lake Conference.

The St. Louis Park-based private school has competed in most sports in the North Suburban Conference, which is dissolving. It applied to join the Metro West, Lake and Northwest Suburban conferences, but all three conferences turned it down."

loki · Post by **loki** » Mon Jan 13, 2014 10:39 pm

sinbin wrote:Loki, well if BSM ever does get to State, they won't have to play Tonka, Wayzata, Hopkins and at least one of Edina/EP, so that knocks at least 4 of the state's top 10 teams out of the tournament and makes their job that much easier. Of course, it's likely that they won't face any creampuffs, but they won't be facing the entire cream of the crop, either.

Sinbin, you missed my point that all the gyrations to crown the team with the most point getters really doesn't mean a lot if they can't get the points they need to get to state.

Just find it very offensive to dismiss all the talent that doesn't happen to play for BSM or other "top AA teams" because of an arbitrary cutoff based on SOS.

How about we throw out the stats of players on teams with 3 or more D1 players, because really how hard is it to get points when you're playing with other top talent?

Too much emphasis on stats and me, me, me and not enough emphasis on "no I in team." JMHO.

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:59 am

Loki, I agree completely, and that was my point as well. I probably should have emphasized the "IF they get to State" BSM has had gaudy statistics from playing a good deal of soft teams, but that hasn't helped them ever get by Tonka (whose stats are much more pedestrian, but who plays a much tougher schedule). This year, BSM's SOS is more difficult overall, although they still have plenty of softies. Imagine what Tonka's stats would have looked like if they had BSM's schedule the past few seasons. This doesn't take away from the BSM players' talent, it's just more difficult to compare apples to apples.

But the talented girls on both teams still are/will be playing D1 and D3, even though the BSM stats are better, so the coaches at these colleges got it right. The only difference is Tonka has 3 state championships and BSM has 0. I doubt any Tonka girl would trade her championship medals for a few more meaningless regular season goals. So, to come full circle and agree with your point again, it seems that teamwork does indeed trump individual stats.

It seems to me we had a similar analysis a season or two ago, but had some fancy normalizing equations (logarithms, square roots, and such?) built in and a somewhat longer list of players. If I recall correctly, a calculation of "SOS-adjusted points" was made, so that the weaker the SOS, the greater the decrement to a player's points as an adjustment.

Nevertoomuchhockey · Post by **Nevertoomuchhockey** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:18 am

I definitely think SOS is important - in season. But if you look at the huge goal scorers at EGF and Rochester, they will never make this list and they truly deserve to be recognized. They've both played on some pretty high level AAA off season programs and have excelled against and with our metro girls.

Just throwing it out there...

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:37 am

MNHockeyFan wrote:...Tonka has played 8 games against current Top 10 AA teams, scoring 17 goals for a 2.125 average. This doesn't prove much other than it does show just how much harder it is to score goals against the State's best teams.

To further emphasize the point on how much harder it is to score lots of goals against the state's best teams, take a look at the Lake Conference standings on the Hub: http://www.mngirlshockeyhub.com/standings/show/982399

Going into tonight each team has played one another once (4 conference games each). Here is their LPH State Ranking and "Goals For" average within the conference so far:

#1AA Hopkins - 1.50
#2AA Minnetonka - 2.00
#4AA Wayzata - 1.75
#6AA Edina - 2.25
#8AA Eden Prairie - 2.50

Average GF: 2.0 (Tough League!)

Somewhat surprising is that Hopkins, the State's No. 1 ranked team, which has two prolific scorers in Rodgers and Boyd, has scored the least number of goals within the conference. But EP - the lowest ranked Lake Conference team in the State, at No. 8, has been the highest scoring team in conference games, despite not having any individuals with more than 22 points overall.

I'm thinking that maybe after they go through the second round of conference games all of the teams will be tied at 4-4 with equal numbers of goals for and against

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 9:58 am

Good stuff. By comparision, BSM has played 3 Lake Conference teams and scored 8 goals for an average of 2.66 goals per game. Stats are fun stuff; I think we can make them say whatever we want them to say. Last year I seem to recall it was well into the 3+ range against the Lake teams.

Coachk · Post by **Coachk** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 10:11 am

Never to much, I have to repectfully disagree with you. With you being somewhat new to girls hockey, this discrepency with outstate scoring totals has been going on for years. Summer AAA is not a reason to place these girls on a list with, for example an Edina player. They were sucessful in AAA, not on thier individual talent, but the AAA team as a whole had talent. Back in the late 90s there was a girls from Rochester that would score 50 goals a season on average and was athlete of the week multiple times. She was invited to a tryout at the superrink and the nicest way to say it was that many people were very dissappointed with the hype of this player. AFter that, it took a while for players from there to be invited for anything again. The fact is that the level of competion is not there as well as the numbers. I feel the adjusted numbers that are being presented correctly describes the situation as well as the college offers that these players have recieved.

CommunityBased · Post by **CommunityBased** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 10:40 am

CoachK, point taken outstate stats are a bit inflated. However this is not the 90's and the Rochester girl in question made the high performance national camp at her level. Look at the HP rosters at each age level. You see girls from Red Wing, Dodge County, EGF, Warroad, and yes Edina. Great players come from all over.

http://www.minnesotahockey.org/news_art ... r_id=88465

DmanDad1980 · Post by **DmanDad1980** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 10:50 am

Want to point out that one of the girls left out of this "scoring" conversation from Rochester, was a top ranked player of her age group last year in Advanced 15's, if not "the" top player... She played against all of the metro girls at festival and at St Cloud... Very nice player... so, SOS or not, just has to be part of this conversation...

DmanDad1980 · Post by **DmanDad1980** » Tue Jan 14, 2014 10:56 am

CommunityBased wrote:CoachK, point taken outstate stats are a bit inflated. However this is not the 90's and the Rochester girl in question made the high performance national camp at her level. Look at the HP rosters at each age level. You see girls from Red Wing, Dodge County, EGF, Warroad, and yes Edina. Great players come from all over.

http://www.minnesotahockey.org/news_art ... r_id=88465

Thank you CB. The Dodge County mention is right on... That team has a top defenseman in the state at her age group, offers from three local D1 schools... A top forward in her age group, that had Ohio State at a recent game... and several other girls on that team that are getting some D1 and high end D3 looks... Southern MN hockey teams do not have the depth of the metro, but there are some very good young ladies playing hockey in Southern MN, and that will succeed at the next level very nicely!
This is not the 90's, definitely, and there is much room for development and improvement in the South, but there are some very good hockey players from there.