Rising and declining programs

[Stang5280]

This question occurred to me while perusing the 7AA thread, since it seems to be a nearly unanimous opinion that Andover will be a program on the rise based on the coaching and talent coming up through the ranks. So what are some of the other programs that are set up to improve significantly over the next several years? Conversely, what teams are expected to be trending downward? As someone who lives out of state and follows MN high school hockey tangentially, I am curious to hear from those who are more connected and knowledgeable.

I’ll start by throwing out a few programs that are either pretty obvious or familiar to me (feel free to disagree).

Risers: Andover, Blake, Rosemount, Alexandria, Orono (will they ever do anything in the postseason, though?)

Fallers: Breck, Minnehaha Academy, SPA, Delano, Bemidji

[kniven]

It's sad to say, but I think 218 hockey has been declining for years. With the exception of Duluth East and Hermantown. When East, Hermantown, and Rapids usually fill 15-18 slots a year average in the Elite league. Heck, Duluth East has 12 this year. Cloquet supposedly has tons of talent and on the up and up the next couple years.... has 2 players on the Elite league rosters. Hermantown and Rapids are down this year....they are 2nd and 3rd with the most high school players on Elite league rosters.

[Upfan111]

Big thing with Elite league rosters; head coaches of players can AND SHOULD promote their players for roster spots.

[kniven]

Big thing with Elite league rosters; head coaches of players can AND SHOULD promote their players for roster spots.

So which gets the roster spot a) the kid with more talent b) the kid with more promoters. I suppose it goes both ways-no system is perfect

[blueline8]

Big thing with Elite league rosters; head coaches of players can AND SHOULD promote their players for roster spots.

How would a head coach promote a player for a roster spot?

[blueline8]

This question occurred to me while perusing the 7AA thread, since it seems to be a nearly unanimous opinion that Andover will be a program on the rise based on the coaching and talent coming up through the ranks. So what are some of the other programs that are set up to improve significantly over the next several years? Conversely, what teams are expected to be trending downward? As someone who lives out of state and follows MN high school hockey tangentially, I am curious to hear from those who are more connected and knowledgeable.

I’ll start by throwing out a few programs that are either pretty obvious or familiar to me (feel free to disagree).

Risers: Andover, Blake, Rosemount, Alexandria, Orono (will they ever do anything in the postseason, though?)

Fallers: Breck, Minnehaha Academy, SPA, Delano, Bemidji

In the future please refrain from using words like "tangentially" in posts here. We hockey guys not only don't know what it means, but it kind of gives us the creeps to just say it. Thank you.

[zooomx]

This question occurred to me while perusing the 7AA thread, since it seems to be a nearly unanimous opinion that Andover will be a program on the rise based on the coaching and talent coming up through the ranks. So what are some of the other programs that are set up to improve significantly over the next several years? Conversely, what teams are expected to be trending downward? As someone who lives out of state and follows MN high school hockey tangentially, I am curious to hear from those who are more connected and knowledgeable.

I’ll start by throwing out a few programs that are either pretty obvious or familiar to me (feel free to disagree).

Risers: Andover, Blake, Rosemount, Alexandria, Orono (will they ever do anything in the postseason, though?)

Fallers: Breck, Minnehaha Academy, SPA, Delano, Bemidji

In the future please refrain from using words like "tangentially" in posts here. We hockey guys not only don't know what it means, but it kind of gives us the creeps to just say it. Thank you.

Agreed. There were just not enough spelling and grammatical errors in his post for me to take his hockey opinion seriously.

Alexandria should put together a nice year this year. Lost a few really good players, but the Bantams moving up look really good. 2 very solid returning goalies. The Cards look deep in talent for the next 4-5 years at least, with some nice goalies coming up.

Fergus Falls in going to be a bit down this year. They lost some really good players. They had a special group the past 2-3 years. Still have some very nice players, but the depth isn't quite there. They look like they will be down a couple years until the next wave of deeper talent gets up to HS.

I don't buy some opinions that Cathedral will be down. They just reload.

[WarmUpTheBus]

This question occurred to me while perusing the 7AA thread, since it seems to be a nearly unanimous opinion that Andover will be a program on the rise based on the coaching and talent coming up through the ranks. So what are some of the other programs that are set up to improve significantly over the next several years? Conversely, what teams are expected to be trending downward? As someone who lives out of state and follows MN high school hockey tangentially, I am curious to hear from those who are more connected and knowledgeable.

I’ll start by throwing out a few programs that are either pretty obvious or familiar to me (feel free to disagree).

Risers: Andover, Blake, Rosemount, Alexandria, Orono (will they ever do anything in the postseason, though?)

Fallers: Breck, Minnehaha Academy, SPA, Delano, Bemidji

Add Jefferson and Benilde to the fallers.
Add Holy Family to the risers.

[notTONIGHT]

Worthington had 2 wins last season. Improving from a winless campaign in 15-16. Rising!

[grindiangrad-80]

It's sad to say, but I think 218 hockey has been declining for years. With the exception of Duluth East and Hermantown. When East, Hermantown, and Rapids usually fill 15-18 slots a year average in the Elite league. Heck, Duluth East has 12 this year. Cloquet supposedly has tons of talent and on the up and up the next couple years.... has 2 players on the Elite league rosters. Hermantown and Rapids are down this year....they are 2nd and 3rd with the most high school players on Elite league rosters.

I respectfully disagree with you Kniven. Every program will have it ebbs and flows but it's hard to say that 7AA is in decline when the 4 seed (and I believe they deserved to be the 4 seed) won the state tournament last year. That was after a tight quarter final game and an absolute miracle finish in the semis and another - anyone could win this game- final. That was after East survived the CEC game.

If the 7A teams didn't have to contend with Hermantown they would be competitive at state also. IMHO

[SpOilerfan]

Big thing with Elite league rosters; head coaches of players can AND SHOULD promote their players for roster spots.

So which gets the roster spot a) the kid with more talent b) the kid with more promoters. I suppose it goes both ways-no system is perfect

high school coaches nominate their players, the good ones also call and promote their own players to get them in the league

[BP]

This question occurred to me while perusing the 7AA thread, since it seems to be a nearly unanimous opinion that Andover will be a program on the rise based on the coaching and talent coming up through the ranks. So what are some of the other programs that are set up to improve significantly over the next several years? Conversely, what teams are expected to be trending downward? As someone who lives out of state and follows MN high school hockey tangentially, I am curious to hear from those who are more connected and knowledgeable.

I’ll start by throwing out a few programs that are either pretty obvious or familiar to me (feel free to disagree).

Risers: Andover, Blake, Rosemount, Alexandria, Orono (will they ever do anything in the postseason, though?)

Fallers: Breck, Minnehaha Academy, SPA, Delano, Bemidji

I'd add CDH and Holy Angels as two more that will be rising the next couple of years.

[Stang5280]

Add Jefferson and Benilde to the fallers.
Add Holy Family to the risers.

I was tempted to add Jefferson as a faller, but thought they may have already fallen too far for consideration (never mind their section final run last year). Interesting to hear the Benilde take; I had assumed they will bounce back, but perhaps Holy Family has an impact on that.

[Stang5280]

In the future please refrain from using words like "tangentially" in posts here. We hockey guys not only don't know what it means, but it kind of gives us the creeps to just say it. Thank you.

Agreed. There were just not enough spelling and grammatical errors in his post for me to take his hockey opinion seriously.

Sorry, newbie mistake there. Perhaps it was that fancy Breck education rearing its ugly head. In the future I’ll try to use smaller words and throw a few errors in there.

[MrBoDangles]

In the future please refrain from using words like "tangentially" in posts here. We hockey guys not only don't know what it means, but it kind of gives us the creeps to just say it. Thank you.

Agreed. There were just not enough spelling and grammatical errors in his post for me to take his hockey opinion seriously.

Sorry, newbie mistake there. Perhaps it was that fancy Breck education rearing its ugly head. In the future I’ll try to use smaller words and throw a few errors in there.

Breck?? Now you've lost any cred around here.....

[minnscout]

Benilde is not falling. They have many really good 9th and 10th graders plus a number of top 8th graders coming in next year. Their D core and goaltending will be one of the best in the state in another year. They are young now but will be one of top teams in state very soon again. Read the lets play hockey article showing what school produces the most NCAA players (Benilde). That will not end anytime soon. Families want to be apart of top programs and give their child best opportunity to reach their goals.

[Bluelightspecial-II]

Benilde is not falling. They have many really good 9th and 10th graders plus a number of top 8th graders coming in next year. Their D core and goaltending will be one of the best in the state in another year. They are young now but will be one of top teams in state very soon again. Read the lets play hockey article showing what school produces the most NCAA players (Benilde). That will not end anytime soon. Families want to be apart of top programs and give their child best opportunity to reach their goals.

KP and Benilde have very little to do with the PRODUCTION of NCAA players. That's done long before they ever touch the ice for him.

[Doc Holliday]

If they can find a way to curb the Holy Family threat, I think Chaska and/or Chanhassen are on the way up. Their youth numbers, particularly in mites, are quite a bit higher than EP's.

We keep hearing & waiting for Prior Lake as a riser....

Darkhorse faller: Eden Prairie. Not in the immediate present, but in about 6-7 years or so...at least compared to their SW suburb/D6 competitors in Edina/Tonka/Prior Lake.

[You're a Daisy if ya do..]

Gotta agree with Chaska- three really nice players- young too. They can score...BSM has fallen. Cracks me up- nice young players- where? other youth programs. Welcome to the big stage Holy Family. I thought he was talking about the girls program at first- Podes will deliver there, nice group coming. All good though- excited about the upcoming season; Wide open (Shouldn't be though, with 30 D1 commits for the Hornets)...but it will. To beat a dead horse, truly- over under on the seven wins for BSM?

[minnscout]

Benilde has top 9th grade goalie in state and potentially 5 D1 defenseman between the 9th and 10th grade classes. They are only 1 year removed from a perfect regular seaon. Hardly a team I would call falling. Take the top 4 players off any hs team like last season and anyone would have a challenging year.

[kniven]

I think every class A school that ops up to class AA are declining generally speaking. I really do think that class A hockey would be as awesome to class AA especially for teams outside of the metro. I for one, would be a bigger fan of class A hockey if this were the case. Too much has changed in the last 30 years for the small towns.

[7TIMECHAMPS]

Not sure you can say every program that opts up is in decline when the defending state champs reside in Grand Rapids. With smaller numbers there is going to be more variability in talent from year to year. However, saying all the programs as a whole are in decline just isn't true in my opinion.

[formersection3Afan]

Benilde has top 9th grade goalie in state and potentially 5 D1 defenseman between the 9th and 10th grade classes.

This

[Stang5280]

It's sad to say, but I think 218 hockey has been declining for years. With the exception of Duluth East and Hermantown. When East, Hermantown, and Rapids usually fill 15-18 slots a year average in the Elite league. Heck, Duluth East has 12 this year. Cloquet supposedly has tons of talent and on the up and up the next couple years.... has 2 players on the Elite league rosters. Hermantown and Rapids are down this year....they are 2nd and 3rd with the most high school players on Elite league rosters.

I respectfully disagree with you Kniven. Every program will have it ebbs and flows but it's hard to say that 7AA is in decline when the 4 seed (and I believe they deserved to be the 4 seed) won the state tournament last year. That was after a tight quarter final game and an absolute miracle finish in the semis and another - anyone could win this game- final. That was after East survived the CEC game.

If the 7A teams didn't have to contend with Hermantown they would be competitive at state also. IMHO

I think you’re both correct in some respects. Where 218 hockey seems to have taken a hit over the past few decades is the depth of quality programs. Some of the traditionally strong programs such as International Falls, Eveleth, and even Warroad have fallen on hard times and are essentially irrelevant (not to mention the weaker teams that are barely hanging on). On the other hand, there has been a consolidation of talent into the top-flight programs like East, Hermantown, Rapids, and Moorhead. Whether these two phenomena are related is up for debate, but it certainly does seem too convenient when stud players appear on your doorstep from places like Ely or Fergus Falls.

One notable exception to this trend is Greenway, which managed to claw its way from the deathbed back to 7A prominence (albeit permanently blocked by Hermantown). From what I understand this renaissance was fueled mainly through a grassroots push to increase youth participation. So this feat can be accomplished, but it seems difficult to pull off.

[Stang5280]

Darkhorse faller: Eden Prairie. Not in the immediate present, but in about 6-7 years or so...at least compared to their SW suburb/D6 competitors in Edina/Tonka/Prior Lake.

Interesting prediction/observation. I think you may be on to something given the changing demographics of EP as a school and city. Edina and Tonka seem to be among the few places immune to the never ending flight of younger white families to the exurbs.