KRACH transformed scale with game score predictions: Jan 08

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LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

KRACH transformed scale with game score predictions: Jan 08

Post by LSQRANK » Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:58 pm

The following list gives you a side by side comparison of rating profile values.
KRACH distribution was transformed into a scale useful for predicting game score differences, i.e. for this week's games, one can use the values in either column to predict the score difference between any two teams. For example,
in tonights games between EGF & Park Rapids,

LSQRank : 993.7535 - 983.7014 = 10.05 goals

KRACH : 993.9435215 - 983.2255589 = 10.72 goals

EGF will beat Park Rapids by 10 to 11 goals

Based on the two outcomes, the game sheet might look like:

LSQRANK ==> EGR score 8 ESG's, plus 1 PPG, plus 1 SHG = 10 to 0

KRACH ==> EGR scores 7 ESG's plus 3 SHG's = 10 to 0

- enjoy

Code: Select all

                                                                 Transformed
LSQRank    Team                                            Team  KRACH 
=========  =====================         ======================  ============   
1000.0000  Edina                                          Blake  1000.0000000 
 999.4850  Blake                                     Centennial   999.3621096 
 999.2231  Centennial                                     Edina   999.2121852 
 998.7546  Hill-Murray                              Hill-Murray   998.7502834 
 997.5170  Farmington                               Maple Grove   998.0118325 
 997.4437  Andover                        Brainerd/Little Falls   997.433672  
 997.3273  MapleGrove                                    Blaine   997.3077659 
 997.3224  Minnetonka                                     Eagan   997.2859838 
 997.3057  Blaine                                       Andover   997.210743  
 997.1898  Warroad                                   Minnetonka   997.1539199 
 997.0567  Eagan                                    Forest Lake   997.0406221 
 997.0291  EdenPrairie                               Farmington   996.844265  
 996.8932  Breck                                         Roseau   996.7960077 
 996.6629  LakevilleSouth                          Eden Prairie   996.5832971 
 996.6033  Wayzata                              Lakeville South   996.5731899 
 996.3926  ForestLake                                     Breck   996.4452337 
 996.3251  Roseau                             Thief River Falls   996.1878436 
 995.8279  Brainerd/LittleFalls                         Warroad   995.9737287 
 995.8148  Shakopee                               South St Paul   995.7780275 
 995.7607  LakevilleNorth                               Wayzata   995.7024724 
 995.5803  WhiteBearLake                        White Bear Lake   995.6981783 
 995.4138  Cretin-DerhamHall                    Lakeville North   995.4578315 
 995.4078  Anoka                                       Shakopee   995.2836777 
 995.3759  ElkRiver/Zimmerman             Grand Rapids/Greenway   995.2633813 
 995.1193  SouthStPaul                                 Red Wing   995.2497867 
 995.0782  AppleValley                                St. Cloud   995.0411554 
 995.0728  HolyFamily/Waconia                        Alexandria   994.8825865 
 994.9944  St.PaulUnited                        St. Paul United   994.8422632 
 994.9734  GrandRapids/Greenway             Holy Family/Waconia   994.8092972 
 994.7836  Hopkins/St.LouisPark                      Prior Lake   994.5197548 
 994.7333  Rogers                           Elk River/Zimmerman   994.4915537 
 994.6627  Eastview                                       Anoka   994.4483126 
 994.6340  RedWing                       Hopkins/St. Louis Park   994.4391083 
 994.5142  NorthWrightCounty                    Duluth Marshall   994.3777718 
 994.4419  Burnsville                            Rochester Mayo   994.308066  
 994.4069  Alexandria                        Cretin-Derham Hall   994.2719438 
 994.4005  ChamplinPark/CoonRapids          North Wright County   994.1663077 
 994.2100  MoundsView                  Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC   994.0479243 
 994.0460  Proctor/Hermantown                       Mounds View   993.9999689 
 993.8631  PriorLake                           East Grand Forks   993.9435215 
 993.7921  ThiefRiverFalls                               Rogers   993.7600516 
 993.7535  EastGrandForks                               New Ulm   993.7308954 
 993.7425  DodgeCounty                               Burnsville   993.6939387 
 993.7073  Chaska/Chanhassen                 Proctor/Hermantown   993.6070853 
 993.7047  St.Cloud                       Park of Cottage Grove   993.402557  
 993.5009  Cambridge-Isanti/Mora/PC                Apple Valley   993.4023429 
 993.3426  ParkofCottageGrove               Sartell/Sauk Rapids   993.3329235 
 993.3225  DuluthMarshall                              Eastview   993.2613903 
 993.3013  NewPrague                            Delano/Rockford   993.1434567 
 993.2985  Delano/Rockford                    Rochester Lourdes   993.1334002 
 993.1304  Benilde-St.Margaret's                   Dodge County   993.1262555 
 993.1049  RochesterLourdes                          Northfield   993.1185889 
 993.0833  Mahtomedi                  Champlin Park/Coon Rapids   993.0906351 
 992.9932  Roseville                                  Mahtomedi   993.0498615 
 992.9772  Stillwater                  St. Francis/North Branch   992.7918761 
 992.9699  EastRidge                          Chaska/Chanhassen   992.6494063 
 992.9515  Orono                                      Princeton   992.627352  
 992.9223  NewUlm                                    New Prague   992.5775722 
 992.8740  Hibbing/Chisholm                          East Ridge   992.3414589 
 992.7426  St.Francis/NorthBranch                  Fergus Falls   992.2120773 
 992.5856  Sartell/SaukRapids                        Hutchinson   992.1463553 
 992.5487  Duluth                                    Stillwater   992.0817149 
 992.5185  FergusFalls                                 Owatonna   992.0593959 
 992.5115  SpringLakePark                 Bloomington Jefferson   992.011345  
 992.5051  Cloquet-Esko-Carlton                         Buffalo   991.9582499 
 992.4861  BloomingtonJefferson                          Duluth   991.9362796 
 992.4156  Princeton                     Benilde-St. Margaret's   991.9239401 
 992.1576  Buffalo                                        Orono   991.7908819 
 992.1495  Hutchinson                      Cloquet-Esko-Carlton   991.7318097 
 992.0118  Northfield                                 Faribault   991.7101778 
 991.9860  MoundWestonka                       Spring Lake Park   991.5936345 
 991.8383  RochesterMayo                            River Lakes   991.5103495 
 991.7936  RiverLakes                          Hibbing/Chisholm   991.4419315 
 991.6085  Minneapolis                                 Moorhead   991.4342769 
 991.5280  Moorhead                                   Roseville   991.265172  
 991.3704  Owatonna                              Mound Westonka   990.9759265 
 991.0828  Willmar                                      Willmar   990.9699408 
 990.9758  InternationalFalls               International Falls   990.944673  
 990.7819  HolyAngels                           Moose Lake Area   990.7075652 
 990.7457  Simley                                  Totino-Grace   990.4995121 
 990.7348  MooseLakeArea                            Minneapolis   990.4932958 
 990.7346  Totino-Grace                       Osseo/Park Center   990.4176034 
 990.5110  Osseo/ParkCenter                        Mankato East   989.9635642 
 990.4452  NorthSt.Paul/Tartan                    Chisago Lakes   989.5273111 
 990.3988  Hastings                                    Hastings   989.464879  
 990.0595  HenrySibley                                 Irondale   989.2546056 
 990.0571  ChisagoLakes                   North St. Paul/Tartan   989.1947734 
 990.0564  Faribault                               Henry Sibley   989.183523  
 989.5248  Irondale                             Eveleth-Gilbert   989.0562689 
 989.4666  MinnehahaUnited                             Marshall   988.9898907 
 989.3739  Rosemount                                     Simley   988.9836475 
 989.0608  RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Cooper             Mankato West   988.9784294 
 988.9501  NorthShore                               Holy Angels   988.9700513 
 988.6353  Marshall                                   Rosemount   988.8842194 
 988.6091  PrairieCentre                                Luverne   988.7886641 
 988.5309  Eveleth-Gilbert              Rochester John Marshall   988.6759883 
 988.4143  Woodbury                            Minnehaha United   988.5923973 
 988.3063  Bemidji                               Prairie Centre   988.5731795 
 987.9909  MankatoWest                                   Austin   987.9553429 
 987.6764  MankatoEast                           Northern Lakes   987.8386277 
 987.5954  Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato                 North Shore   987.6305029 
 987.5446  DetroitLakes                         Minnesota River   987.5580297 
 987.3909  Luverne                                Detroit Lakes   987.5405768 
 987.3358  NorthernLakes                                Bemidji   987.409121  
 986.8493  RochesterJohnMarshall                         Windom   987.1988093 
 986.8029  Austin                                      Woodbury   986.9421522 
 986.3893  MinnesotaRiver              Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato   986.7478272 
 986.3715  Waseca                                    Albert Lea   986.2846676 
 985.8653  Windom                                        Waseca   985.8711809 
 985.3149  St.PaulBlades            RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Cooper   985.6923271 
 985.1054  AlbertLea                          Rochester Century   985.520284  
 984.5814  RochesterCentury                         Worthington   985.0993889 
 983.7014  ParkRapids                           St. Paul Blades   984.467539  
 983.3109  Crookston                                Park Rapids   983.2255589 
 982.1974  Worthington                                Crookston   983.1429239 
 980.4192  MorrisArea/BensonArea                       Fairmont   982.1790271 
 979.8075  Fairmont                     Morris Area/Benson Area   981.266454  

ghshockeyfan
Posts: 6132
Joined: Thu Jun 05, 2003 2:33 pm
Location: Inver Grove Heights, MN
Contact:

Post by ghshockeyfan » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:40 pm

interesting extension and comparison of LSQ and KRACH.

Thanks for sharing

LSQRANK
Posts: 415
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Post by LSQRANK » Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:34 pm

I think for this point in the season, a little over 1/2 way, both KRACH and LSQRANK are remarkably close to predicting the actual score differential for tonight's EGR vs Park Rapids game. Check it out, below...

Code: Select all

 E.G.F. vs.  Park Rapids
 Monday 08, 2018

Penalty Summary
===============
1st Period
----------
NO PENALTY

2nd Period
----------
 5:31  Park Rapids      Playing with Too Many Sticks - Minor (2:00)
12:19  East Grand Forks Cross-Checking               - Minor (2:00)
14:03  East Grand Forks Interference                 - Minor (2:00)

3rd Period
----------
15&#58;58  East Grand Forks Interference                 - Minor &#40;2&#58;00&#41;   <== lead to PKRP goal at 16&#58;44

Scoring Summary  
===============
1st Period                                 CORR   CORR
----------                                 ----   -----
 0&#58;46  East Grand Forks   &#40;even strength&#41;  +1.00
 1&#58;55  East Grand Forks   &#40;even strength&#41;  +1.00
 6&#58;24  East Grand Forks   &#40;even strength&#41;  +1.00
 7&#58;05  East Grand Forks   &#40;even strength&#41;  +1.00

2nd Period
----------
10&#58;50  East Grand Forks   &#40;even strength&#41;  +1.00
13&#58;12  East Grand Forks   &#40;short handed&#41;   +1.25               

3rd Period    <== Scoring Rate @SORT =  34.0/6 = 5min 40sec per goal
----------                                              
 0&#58;44  East Grand Forks  &#40;even strength&#41;   +1.00
 4&#58;30  East Grand Forks  &#40;even strength&#41;   +1.00
11&#58;51  East Grand Forks  &#40;even strength&#41;   +1.00
15&#58;01  East Grand Forks  &#40;even strength&#41;   +1.00
16&#58;44  Park Rapids       &#40;EAPP EN   6v4&#41;         +0.666
                                           ----- ------
							Totals                10.25  0.666
							
Actual Corrected Score Differential = 10.25 - 0.666 = 9.5834

Predicted Score Differential&#58;
-----------------------------
LSQRANK =  993.7535 - 983.7014 = 10.05 goals
KRACH   =  993.9435 - 983.2256 = 10.72 goals										   

SR@SORT       =  5min 40sec
CLOCK @ RT =  0&#58;00
RTM        = 17&#58;00
TSTG       =  Truncate&#40; 17&#58;00 / 5&#58;40 &#41; = 3.0 goals
GASORT     =  4

Runtime Adjustment =  0.5 * &#91;TSTG - GASORT&#93; = 0  i.e No adjustment to raw score needed


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