AA Rankings for 1/21/18

[karl(east)]

We have under one month of regular season left now. The top teams are holding firm, and the cream may even be starting to rise in the section after that. A couple of classic contenders, meanwhile, have dropped off the radar.

1. Minnetonka (14-1-2)
-Eden Prairie has been inconsistent enough that I wouldn’t read too much into it, but a fairly comfortable win over the Eagles is a strong showing considering that St. Thomas scraped by them by a goal twice and Duluth East lost to them. For those who want more than the transitive property with a recent opponent, this week should deliver: the Skippers are on the road against their two biggest threats in the Lake Conference, including a rematch of their eye-opening win over Edina in the Schwan Cup.
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat at #8 Wayzata

2. St. Thomas Academy (14-1-1)
-The Cadets are rolling through the underbelly of their schedule, and that should continue again this coming week. After that things get a bit more interesting, though they only have one currently ranked opponent left on their schedule.
This week: Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat vs. Simley

3. Edina (16-1)
-The Hornets seem to be rounding back into form, with a running time defeat of Hill-Murray highlighting this past week. Now, though, we come to the moment of truth, as they have their Minnetonka rematch, plus a second dose of Eden Prairie for good measure. Time to see what the Hornets can do with the pressure on them against another highly-ranked opponent.
This week: Thurs vs. #1 Minnetonka, Sat vs. Eden Prairie

4. Duluth East (12-1-3)
-The Hounds rolled on to three more wins this past week, including a solid effort over Brainerd. The schedule stays busy this week, though they’re also into a softer stretch now; the Prior Lake game is probably the most interesting of the bunch.
This week: Tues at Forest Lake, Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

5. Holy Family (14-2-1)
-Took care of business against a pretty good Mound team, and continue to lock in their status up here with the top teams. Cretin this week is their last ranked opponent left, though they continue to play a number of respectable teams, including Orono this week, who gave them the biggest blemish on their record to date when they tied back in December.
This week: Tues vs. Orono, Sat vs. #6 Cretin-Derham Hall

6. Cretin-Derham Hall (14-2-1)
-I wasn’t thrilled with having the Raiders here over the past few weeks, but a win over White Bear shows they do belong, at least for now. They play a tough nonconference team for the first time in over a month this week, so that will offer another chance to prove they belong.
This week: Thurs vs. Forest Lake, Sat at #5 Holy Family

7. White Bear Lake (12-3-2)
-The Bears lost a tight decision to Cretin, and with no one making a major move in the group behind them, they don’t drop in the rankings. There are some questions about this team down the stretch, but they’ve performed ably in all four of their games against top-flight competition, and on paper they shouldn’t lose again in the regular season. If they do, those questions will become much more pronounced.
This week: Thurs vs. Mounds View, Sat at East Ridge

8. Wayzata (10-6-1)
-The Trojans are coming on strong, picking off teams in the tier below them with regularity (not always a sure thing with this program) and even winning a high-scoring affair with Eden Prairie. They get their first crack at Minnetonka now, as they face their first real top team since early December. How high is this group’s ceiling?
This week: Thurs vs. Breck, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka

9. Moorhead (13-6)
-The Spuds’ season took a turn in the right direction this past week, as they collected quality wins over Andover and Centennial on Hockey Day. They appear to be simplifying things, and focusing on locking down defensively. They now settle into a string of section games.
This week: Tues at Roseau, Sat vs. Rogers

10. Andover (13-4)
-A loss to Moorhead put a mild damper on the Huskies’ recent run, but they bounced back to avenge an earlier loss to Elk River. That win solidifies their position in 7AA . They have eight games left, and the next four are the big ones, as they face 5AA’s traditional top three and another important section game with Marshall on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. Blaine, Sat vs. Duluth Marshall

11. Brainerd (11-5)
-The Warriors put up a decent fight against Duluth East but fell nonetheless. They should win all three this week; the Sartell game is probably the most interesting of the bunch. As with a bunch of ranked teams, their most challenging games before sections are all behind them.
This week: Tues at Sartell, Thurs vs. Willmar, Sat at Buffalo

12. Eastview (14-3)
-The Lightning have a couple of middling losses and have no real signature wins, but consistency within a conference with a lot of parity should be rewarded, and they’ve rattled off ten in a row now. This week is their most challenging one left, as they face the teams that handed them two of their three losses, both on the road. If they can turn the page on both of those, they may really be on to something.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Sat at Eagan

13. Centennial (10-4-3)
-This past week stayed true to the Cougars’ form, as they kept things interesting with a more talented team (Moorhead) but had a tight win over a weaker one (Blaine). They’re dropping some here as some of their early results that seemed passable at the time, like the ties to Hill-Murray and Eden Prairie, appear in a less pleasant light as time goes on. They beat Maple Grove safely the first time around; a second would such win would ease some doubts in 5AA.
This week: Sat vs. Maple Grove

14. Elk River (12-6)
-After popping goals left and right early in the season the Elks went through a bit of a goal drought this past week, as they scraped past Maple Grove and fell to Andover despite a wide shot margin in both. Anoka is their lone opponent this week.
This week: Thurs at Anoka

15. Cloquet (13-5-1)
-Not many style points for the Lumberjacks this past week, but they logged the necessary wins over Grand Rapids and Roseau. They’ll look to avenge an ugly early loss to Superior this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Superior

The Next Ten

Duluth Marshall (12-6-1)
-A shutout loss to Wayzata keeps the Hilltoppers on the outside looking in of the top 15, but the Blake win restored some order after a less-than-stellar run of games. It’s a section-heavy week, with Grand Rapids up first before a big battle with Andover that will have some influence on the 2-5 seeds in 7AA.

Rosemount (13-3)
-A shutout loss to Eastview snaps a 12-game winning streak for the Irish. They aren’t easy to judge since the Lightning are the toughest team on their schedule and have lost twice by 4 and 3 goals to them, but they’re taking care of everyone else. Two South Suburban teams with losing records but frequent respectable showings are up this week, so we’ll see if they can keep up the quality performances.

St. Michael-Albertville (11-4)
-The Knights had a quality week, with a valuable section win over St. Cloud and a win at Hermantown; even though the Hawks are down some (and this underscores how far the top Class A teams are behind the elite in AA this season), that’s a solid result. They could lock up the 3-seed in 8AA with wins over Roseau and Bemidji this week.

St. Louis Park (10-5-2)
-Had an adventure with Bloomington Jefferson on Saturday, but rallied in the third to pull out the win and keep up their momentum here. They visit Holy Angels in their only game this week.

Chaska (11-6)
-The Hawks flattened a couple of lower-tier opponents this past week. Their lone game this week comes against Minneapolis.

Eagan (12-4)
-A narrow win over Virginia doesn’t instill a ton of confidence, but the Wildcats keep plugging along, and their overall body of work lifts them to the head of a large South Suburban scrum in the 20-35ish part of the state rankings. An improving team in this group, Prior Lake, is up next, and they’ve got a big one with conference-leading Eastview after that.

Lakeville North (6-8-1)
-The Panthers got an important section win over rival South, but didn’t do themselves any favors by losing in overtime to Prior Lake. There have been some flashes and the Panthers have been in every game they’ve played, but they can’t seem to get into any sort of rhythm. Eastview will be the highlight of the week ahead of them.

Lakeville South (7-8-1)
-The Cougars have now lost four in a row since their blowout win over Eden Prairie, and the loss to North hurts their shot at the top seed in 1AA. Things ease up some this week with Farmington and Apple Valley.

Eden Prairie (6-10-1)
-The Eagles were not terribly competitive in their first week of Lake play, and that Duluth East win is looking awfully lonely as they start to come apart. In multiple viewings they’ve looked better than this, but the results are what they are. The Stillwater game this week could make or break their top 25 status, and they get a second shot to give Edina something resembling a game also.

St. Cloud (12-5)
-A five-goal loss to rival Cathedral on Hockey Day just about did in this squad’s top 25 status, but they’ve been competitive enough overall that their overall record can keep them ahead of the teams right behind them, most of which have losing records. The week ahead features a decent Alexandria team and a big battle with Roseau as they try to nail down a home game in the 8AA playoffs.

[northwoods oldtimer]

8. Wayzata (10-6-1)
-The Trojans are coming on strong, picking off teams in the tier below them with regularity (not always a sure thing with this program) and even winning a high-scoring affair with Eden Prairie. They get their first crack at Minnetonka now, as they face their first real top team since early December. How high is this group’s ceiling?
This week: Thurs vs. Breck, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka

I really like the Pat Oleary style of hockey. Most folks think that its boring hockey but he builds his team defense first the old school way. I hope Wayzata can upset the "pple cart" come playoffs. Good D schemes can do that. Props!!

Spuds: is Moorhead trending towards a State run? Leonard needs to be a steady .930 to make a nice run. He looked shaky at times Saturday.

CEC needs to keep piling up the wins!

'Randvoer' rundover Elks in the rematch. 7AA will be interesting come sections!

Worriers at 11. Its been like 2005 or 2006 since Shady Bunch had a juggernaut or was it maybe 2012 cracking the top 15?

[rainier2]

St. Michael-Albertville (11-4)
-The Knights had a quality week, with a valuable section win over St. Cloud and a win at Hermantown; even though the Hawks are down some (and this underscores how far the top Class A teams are behind the elite in AA this season), that’s a solid result. They could lock up the 3-seed in 8AA with wins over Roseau and Bemidji this week.

You may be overstating this a bit. Hermantown lost your #1 team 5-3 on the road, where Tonka only outshot them 34-26. I didn't see the game, but that boxscore implies that there isn't a huge gulf between Hermantown and the #1 team in AA. Also, the Hawks are 1-1 against your #8 team, so they can clearly compete with the best in AA.

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

St. Michael-Albertville (11-4)
-The Knights had a quality week, with a valuable section win over St. Cloud and a win at Hermantown; even though the Hawks are down some (and this underscores how far the top Class A teams are behind the elite in AA this season), that’s a solid result. They could lock up the 3-seed in 8AA with wins over Roseau and Bemidji this week.

You may be overstating this a bit. Hermantown lost your #1 team 5-3 on the road, where Tonka only outshot them 34-26. I didn't see the game, but that boxscore implies that there isn't a huge gulf between Hermantown and the #1 team in AA. Also, the Hawks are 1-1 against your #8 team, so they can clearly compete with the best in AA.

I think more than anything this shows the parity this season. Remember Lakeville North tied Minnetonka (Tonka barely brought it to OT) in the 2nd game of the season. EP beating East, HF tying Orono, the list goes on. Transitive property could really go Wild this year

[karl(east)]

St. Michael-Albertville (11-4)
-The Knights had a quality week, with a valuable section win over St. Cloud and a win at Hermantown; even though the Hawks are down some (and this underscores how far the top Class A teams are behind the elite in AA this season), that’s a solid result. They could lock up the 3-seed in 8AA with wins over Roseau and Bemidji this week.

You may be overstating this a bit. Hermantown lost your #1 team 5-3 on the road, where Tonka only outshot them 34-26. I didn't see the game, but that boxscore implies that there isn't a huge gulf between Hermantown and the #1 team in AA. Also, the Hawks are 1-1 against your #8 team, so they can clearly compete with the best in AA.

I think more than anything this shows the parity this season. Remember Lakeville North tied Minnetonka (Tonka barely brought it to OT) in the 2nd game of the season. EP beating East, HF tying Orono, the list goes on. Transitive property could really go Wild this year

Yeah, could have worded that better...clearly on a good day the Hawks can still compete with some very good teams. But normally, the body of work of the top couple A teams would clearly make a two-class top 15, if not even higher. This season, looking at Hermantown's body of work, I don't think I could rank them above #20 right now. Losses to Benilde, EP, STMA, and a tie with New Prague cancel out their good wins (Wayzata, Marshall, Lakeville South, a couple pretty good A teams). That was the point I was trying to make.

[elliott70]

You may be overstating this a bit. Hermantown lost your #1 team 5-3 on the road, where Tonka only outshot them 34-26. I didn't see the game, but that boxscore implies that there isn't a huge gulf between Hermantown and the #1 team in AA. Also, the Hawks are 1-1 against your #8 team, so they can clearly compete with the best in AA.

I think more than anything this shows the parity this season. Remember Lakeville North tied Minnetonka (Tonka barely brought it to OT) in the 2nd game of the season. EP beating East, HF tying Orono, the list goes on. Transitive property could really go Wild this year

Yeah, could have worded that better...clearly on a good day the Hawks can still compete with some very good teams. But normally, the body of work of the top couple A teams would clearly make a two-class top 15, if not even higher. This season, looking at Hermantown's body of work, I don't think I could rank them above #20 right now. Losses to Benilde, EP, STMA, and a tie with New Prague cancel out their good wins (Wayzata, Marshall, Lakeville South, a couple pretty good A teams). That was the point I was trying to make.

Good point.

[rainier2]

You may be overstating this a bit. Hermantown lost your #1 team 5-3 on the road, where Tonka only outshot them 34-26. I didn't see the game, but that boxscore implies that there isn't a huge gulf between Hermantown and the #1 team in AA. Also, the Hawks are 1-1 against your #8 team, so they can clearly compete with the best in AA.

I think more than anything this shows the parity this season. Remember Lakeville North tied Minnetonka (Tonka barely brought it to OT) in the 2nd game of the season. EP beating East, HF tying Orono, the list goes on. Transitive property could really go Wild this year

Yeah, could have worded that better...clearly on a good day the Hawks can still compete with some very good teams. But normally, the body of work of the top couple A teams would clearly make a two-class top 15, if not even higher. This season, looking at Hermantown's body of work, I don't think I could rank them above #20 right now. Losses to Benilde, EP, STMA, and a tie with New Prague cancel out their good wins (Wayzata, Marshall, Lakeville South, a couple pretty good A teams). That was the point I was trying to make.

Yeah, I'd put them in the 15-20 range, just a hair above Duluth Marshall.

[WestMetro]

Not sure Id have Trojans ahead of Spuds.

But anyway....

Quite clear the first break point is after 4.

Next is after 7th

Next is after 16, or maybe even after 24.

So yes, LOTS of parity this year, its just beyond the top 4.

[Green and White Fan]

Duluth East is the best team I have seen this year. Granted I haven't seen most of the top 10 teams and I saw Edina very early in the season. East is a big, strong team and are very deserving of where you have them rated, but probably too low actually.

[GoldenBear]

Not sure Id have Trojans ahead of Spuds.


Oh come on WMetro! Trojans beat the Spuds; I despise pollsters that don't give that a lot of weight in rankings. Heck, Wayzata is about to have their best regular season since the 12/13 campaign. Look out Edina! Hot goalie; Hot goalie; Hot goalie BEWARE! and it is a new/fresh body from the JV ranks that has a 4 and 0 record too. GB

[ThatMNHockeyGuy62]

Not sure Id have Trojans ahead of Spuds.

But anyway....

Quite clear the first break point is after 4.

Next is after 7th

Next is after 16, or maybe even after 24.

So yes, LOTS of parity this year, its just beyond the top 4.

Agreed. Just about any match-up between the 8th-24th ranked teams would be more of a crapshoot than any other year I can remember!

[WestMetro]

GB, Upon further review, I will adjust my earlier comment about Wayzata vs Moorhead ranking , And give them more credit for the head-to-head win over Moorhead like Karl must’ve done. As usual, if I ever disagree with Karl, I end up paying for it later

I recently saw Fraga shut out Marshall who has two of the highest AA scorers in the state, so I agree that was impressive considering the amount of sniper firepower coming at him

I’m probably done watching both Moorhead and the Trojans for the regular season now , will be interesting to see how they both do heading down the stretch and whether I will see either or both at the X again

[elliott70]

9. Moorhead (13-6)
-The Spuds’ season took a turn in the right direction this past week, as they collected quality wins over Andover and Centennial on Hockey Day. They appear to be simplifying things, and focusing on locking down defensively. They now settle into a string of section games.
This week: Tues at Roseau, Sat vs. Rogers

So you heard Coach Ammerman saying, "Keep it simple, keep it simple, keep it simple"?

[O-townClown]

1. Edina
2. St. Thomas
3. Duluth East
4. Minnetonka
5. Cretin-Derham Hall
6. White Bear Lake
7. Holy Family
8. Andover
9. Moorhead
10. Brainerd
11. Wayzata
12. Elk River
13. Eastview
14. Duluth Marshall
15. Elk River
HM - Centennial, Eagan, Rosemount

[alcloseshaver]

1. Edina
2. St. Thomas
3. Duluth East
4. Minnetonka
5. Cretin-Derham Hall
6. White Bear Lake
7. Holy Family
8. Andover
9. Moorhead
10. Brainerd
11. Wayzata
12. Elk River
13. Eastview
14. Duluth Marshall
15. Elk River
HM - Centennial, Eagan, Rosemount

Elks aren't that deep O-town :shock

[kniven]

1. Edina
2. St. Thomas
3. Duluth East
4. Minnetonka
5. Cretin-Derham Hall
6. White Bear Lake
7. Holy Family
8. Andover
9. Moorhead
10. Brainerd
11. Wayzata
12. Elk River
13. Eastview
14. Duluth Marshall
15. Elk River
HM - Centennial, Eagan, Rosemount

Looks about right

[O-townClown]

Elks aren't that deep O-town :shock

Good catch. I was spitballing and obviously erred naming them twice! Looking forward to Karl's thoughts and how his list compares.